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Comments 51951 to 52000:

  1. Book review: Rising Sea Levels: An Introduction to Cause and Impact by Hunt Janin and Scott Mandia
    Tricky years ahead. How to thread the legal needle of acknowledging necessities imposed by climate change via legislative guidance, policy, budget authority and all the myriad implementation details of civil government, while simultaneously refusing to assign culpability for the needlessly exaggerated scale of the problem? 20+ years of being the subject of a campaign of confusion intent on procrastination is going to cost a terrific amount of money to amend, but nobody's going to be on the hook for reimbursement. The Godzilla of amnesty programs, truly. Refusing to speak the names that must not be uttered will also make it objectively more difficult to do the work of coping with climate change. Thinking about a topic is harder when broad swathes of facts are sanctioned from consciousness. We're very generous with these concessions. Will we be thanked? Probably not.
  2. The View from Germany: Tackling the real questions
    (-snip-). Back to the numbers in the Öko-Institut report... When you see numbers for NG that's lower than what you get from burning methane at 100% efficiency, that's reason for heavy skepticism. Digging deeper, I now see how they got there, but (-snip-). At least they show their numbers. The numbers in table 3 are quite useless, IMO, since they're effectively putting oil heating at zero CO2 and then counting saved oil from CHP plants as negative emissions. Table 4 is better, but still skewed in favor of (bio)gas. One problem is that it assumes that the demand for heat is twice the demand for electricity. Things look very different during summer when demand for heat is next to zero. Another issue is the omission of nuclear CHP. It's rare today, but nevertheless an option. Also, why use oil for heating when you have clean electricity? Use electric heating instead, preferably heat pumps. A smaller issue is how to count the emissions from the nuclear fuel cycle, especially enrichment. It's typically calculated based on the energy requirement for enrichment and the average emissions for the local electricity supply. I think is better to subtract the electricity needed from enrichment from the output of the NPP, i.e. if a plant produces 1GW on average and 10MW (this is a made-up number for example only) is used to enrich its you, you calculate emission based on the NPP supplying 990MW. Importing enriched uranium will of course complicate this calculation. Onto German energy policy: The picture of the two new units at the Neurath power plant at the RWE site is a perfect illustration of Germany’s broken energy policy. A brand spanking new lignite plant, with some windmills in the background for greenwashing. To make matters worse, the hill the windmills are built on, Vollrather Höhe, is a spoil tip from the nearby Garzweiler open pit lignite mine. From RWE: In 15 minutes, each BoA 2&3 unit can increase or decrease its output by more than 500 MW. This helps offset fluctuations in the feed-in of renewable energy. An important contribution to Germany's energy U-turn. I also recommend the video on this plant, but take your blood pressure medicine before you start watching it. I stongly doubt that Germany will reach 35% renewables in 2020, and I'm absolutely certain that they won't reach 85% by 2050 (or any time at all really). I think this will go the way of California's 10% ZEV by 2003. (Nothing against electic cars, just an example of a well meant, but unrealistic political goal.) I used to be a much stronger supporter for wind and solar, but the more I've studied them, the less optimistic I've become, to the point that I think they're a waste of time and money for large scale grid integration due to the reliance of dirty and dangerous fossil fuels to ensure reliability and dispatchability, except in regions with lots of hydro. They can be very useful for small scale off-grid applications though. Nuclear power is not perfect, nor will it ever be, but it's the best we have. Thanks to the extreme energy density of nuclear fuel, nuclear requires very little resources compared to other energy sources. Managing spent fuel is a trivial problem compared to GHG and other emissions from fossil fuels, thanks to the tiny volume. Most of the spent fuel from current reactors, is also not waste, but usable as fuel in next generation reactors. There's also some valuable stuff, both radioactive and non-radioactive, among the fission products. Despite what you hear from anti-nukes, nuclear is the the safest energy source we have (measured in deaths/TWh). In fact, I'd much rather have RBMKs (Chernobyl type reactor) than any fossil fuels plants. There are 3.3 million annual deaths from air pollution, mainly from burning of fossil fuels and biomass, but the anti-nukes don't care nearly as much about them as they do about hypothetical deaths from nuclear. The best way to get rid of fossil fuels is to demand the same level of safety and waste management as nuclear power. Doing so would make prices skyrocket.
    Moderator Response:

    [DB] "nuclear is the the safest energy source we have"

    Actually, there is a study finding a preliminary link between Fukushima and increased mortality (~14,000 deaths extra) in the US (story here).

    Sloganeering and inflammatory rhetoric snipped.

  3. WSJ, Sandy, and Global Warming - Asking the Right Questions
    Brian @15 - I appreciate you making the effort to defend Pielke's work and comments, since he's unwilling to defend them himself. And you do have a few valid points. For example, I take no issue with Pielke's normalization process. It seems perfectly fine - the problem is that it's limited in that it does not consider technological advancements. Not just in buildings (though jake @25 provides some very useful data on that specific issue), but also in terms of storm barriers, model predictions of hurricane paths, etc. Pielke doesn't even attempt to account for these factors, he just says (as far as I can tell) 'I got the answer I expected to those factors must be negligible'. That's bad science. I also second Kevin's comment @20 that Grinsted at least suggests US hurricane landfalls are increasing (I haven't looked at the Mann paper he references). But even if Pielke is right that the intensity of hurricanes making landfall in the USA isn't increasing, why should we expect that to continue, particularly when Francis predicts more blocking events like the one that pushed Sandy toward the coast to occur as a result of changes in the Arctic? Even if we've been lucky so far in that the increase in Atlantic hurricane intensity hasn't impacted the USA, why assume we'll continue to be lucky when the evidence suggests otherwise? There are just a lot of holes in Pielke's argument, and it seems to be based on ignoring a whole lot of inconvenient data.
  4. WSJ, Sandy, and Global Warming - Asking the Right Questions
    Jake @25, Thanks for your informative post.
  5. WSJ, Sandy, and Global Warming - Asking the Right Questions
    Brian @15, Others have already corrected some of your erroneous claims/assertions. I'm busy drafting a response to your misleading post, but as is often the case, refuting misleading or erroneous claims takes a lot more time (and effort) than making them. More to follow.
  6. Book review: Rising Sea Levels: An Introduction to Cause and Impact by Hunt Janin and Scott Mandia
    Look, we need to immediately reduce GHG emissions. If we want to avoid even worse disasters than we already face we must act now. But yesterday Climate Progress posted a piece on a new report from PricewaterhouseCoopers. In that report they made the case that we, the world, are nowhere near reducing GHG at a rate that will limit warming to 2 degrees C. It is not the only report that makes that point and I have seen studies that suggest that even if we could stop at 400 ppmv of CO2 we would still experience 2 to 3 degrees. So we must assume the world will continue to warm, the oceans will continue to warm, the ice sheets, ice caps and glaciers will continue to melt and the sea will rise. I think this is an important book but people must realize that cutting emissions will not prevent sea level rise. We must prepare now for the inevitable. We must decide if we want to take on the huge economic burden to save the low lying cities, low countries, and mega deltas. You cannot construct massive levees, seawalls, and storm surge barriers in a few years. You need to decide if you are going to raise streets and buildings. You need to consider reengineering utility infrastructure. You need to investigate if your subway can still run if sea level rises 1 to 3 feet. You need to plan how your sea ports will function with higher sea levels. It is a massive undertaking and I hope this book addresses those issues. Simply reducing GHG emissions will not prevent the inevitable and I am reminded of something a civil engineer said about levees. There are only two kinds of levees: those that have failed and those that will fail.
  7. WSJ, Sandy, and Global Warming - Asking the Right Questions
    Alpinist: Looks like the current estimates for Sandy have risen into the $50 billion range and continue to trend up. For me one of the most striking (and reckless) things about Pielke's op-ed was employment of ~$20 billion as key evidence for his argument. Hasty, risky.
  8. The View from Germany: Tackling the real questions
    Uncle Pete, Here in Florida we have a damaged nuclear power plant that is not economic to repair. They have wasted over $1 billion planning a new plant that will never break ground, it is not economic. In Los Angeles they also have a damaged plant, although it may be worth repairing. There are currently zero nuclear power plants being financed by private money in the entire United States. If nuclear is so good, why is no-one wiling to pay for it? If it is uneconomic to build it cannot do the "heavy lifting". This does not even count shut down costs and waste disposal. Fukushima proved how ineffective current waste storage is. Meanwhile solar and wind installation continue to increase.
  9. The View from Germany: Tackling the real questions
    yes quokka (and speedy), thanks, but no thanks for moving the goalpost one more time. Let me tell you what I hear from you (perception): 1. But ... the source says this ... 2. But ... I do not understand ... 3. But ... they are biased / doing this wrong ... 4. But ... you need to (re-)produce these numbers before I believe it. Hmmh. 1. No it does not 2. Go contact them 3. If you think so, ask them. Argue nicely. 4. No I don't. I refrain from reinventing the wheel. If you want to do that, see answers 2. and 3. And now that we have moved so far away from the topic of my post, I will let this go. Let us know though once you asked them what the result of your argument is.
  10. WSJ, Sandy, and Global Warming - Asking the Right Questions
    should of made it clear, data is for Charlotte County, Florida only. last post on this, i promise :)
  11. WSJ, Sandy, and Global Warming - Asking the Right Questions
    in pic 3 and 4 above, claim severity is in "$/square foot"
  12. WSJ, Sandy, and Global Warming - Asking the Right Questions
    Some info regarding improvement in construction of homes reducing losses... Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety analysed claims made after Hurricane Charley (2004), finding "frequency of claims was reduced by 60% and the claim was 42% less severe when a loss did occur, for homes built after the adoption of the modern codes. " Image and video hosting by TinyPic Image and video hosting by TinyPic Image and video hosting by TinyPic Image and video hosting by TinyPic
  13. WSJ, Sandy, and Global Warming - Asking the Right Questions
    IIRC, the connection between AGW and an increase in hurricanes is tenuous. A decline in the difference between temperature gradients might offset the increase in available energy due to the increase in SSTs. Fewer, but stronger, hurricanes. And, as with, Sandy, there might be a radical change in storm tracks. And to iterate the point made in #23, there is no "proof" in science. Anyone who asks for "proof" is either running a con or severely misunderstands science.
  14. WSJ, Sandy, and Global Warming - Asking the Right Questions
    This is the same nonsense we got in the tobacco wars; 'You cannot prove that the lung cancer which killed John Smith was caused by his longtime smoking habit. People died of lung cancer before cigarettes too.' 'You cannot prove that the storm which devastated New Jersey was caused by longtime human CO2 emissions. Devastating storms happened before AGW too.' Both arguments are 'true', but deliberately avoiding the point. Smoking causes lung cancer! AGW causes devastating storms! Drunk driving causes car accidents! The perpetual refrain that 'you cannot prove they caused that particular incident' is pure misdirection. We still can't prove that John Smith died because of smoking or that a fatal car accident would not have happened but for the driver's drinking... but that doesn't stop us from recognizing that these things are dangerous. The refusal to do so with global warming is a terrible mix of willful blindness and callous indifference.
  15. WSJ, Sandy, and Global Warming - Asking the Right Questions
    Neven: Looks like the current estimates for Sandy have risen into the $50 billion range and continue to trend up.
  16. The View from Germany: Tackling the real questions
    The Annual fuel utilization efficiency of gas or oil boilers/furnaces is ~80%. (-snip-). This incidentally, is what it should be about - looking at the numbers. (-snip-).
    Moderator Response: [DB] Sloganeering snipped. Re-inventing the flat tire is unhelpful.
  17. WSJ, Sandy, and Global Warming - Asking the Right Questions
    BrianB: I have a question with regards to your comment. You state:
    But Pielke is right that the peer-reviewed literature is clear that attribution of disaster losses to AGW simply is not possible right now. The signal, whatever it might be, is much smaller than the noise.
    That's claiming we don't have the data or techniques to tease out the contribution of AGW to natural disasters or to losses therefrom. It seems to me to be much different from claiming that there is no contribution of AGW to disasters, or to disaster losses, which we can examine with reference to physics (e.g. higher sea surface temps mean more powerful storms, higher sea levels mean more dangerous/damaging storm surges, and the like). By way of historical example, if memory serves the global warming signal in surface temperatures only emerged from the noise in the late 80s, and can easily be lost in it if one examines short time frames - or finer spatial resolutions, such as only looking at US records (as if, somehow, the US is the only polity that matters in this discussion). But experiment & physics theory had confirmed by the 50s that enhancing the atmospheric heat trap by emitting carbon gases would cause warming.
  18. The View from Germany: Tackling the real questions
    @gws, I certainly have read Martin's comment and looked at the reference and it is utterly unconvincing. (-snip-). You would need ridiculously inefficient gas or oil heating that was (-snip-). There has to be some double counting going on.
    Moderator Response:

    [DB] Rather than continuing to issue assignations of deception and impropriety, please contact the source for clarification. That would be the "skeptical" thing to do.

    Continuing focus on this in lieu of due diligence now constitutes sloganeering and will force moderation of your comments. FYI.

  19. The View from Germany: Tackling the real questions
    yes, your answers are "speedy", but does impressive highlighting make for them to be relevant? You have not followed through the comment from Martin @32 above, so here again (from that source, below Figure 3, translated for you): "To compare emissions from electricity-only options, like nuclear and wind, with options producing electricity and heat, like CHP, we have to consider the non-electricity but usable heat energy: For that we found the total emissions of the CHP process and subtracted the emissions of a heating process that would deliver the exact same heat" Your belittling of the choice of heating oil for that comparison makes a mountain of a mole hill; contact them, complain to them. And if you actually take the time to look beyond Figure 3, oh, what do you know, next page, you would have found Table 4, which lists your craved-for gross emissions comparison. Wasting my time here ...
  20. WSJ, Sandy, and Global Warming - Asking the Right Questions
    Brian: Concerning this quote:
    There can be no AGW signal in hurricane losses in the U.S. because there has been no change in landfalling hurricane frequency or strength since record-keeping started.
    I don't think this claim accurately reflects the latest evidence. See Grinsted et al (2012) and Mann et al (2009). Both of these address the coverage concerns of Landsea (2007) in different ways, although clearly the issue isn't settled yet.
  21. Climate sensitivity is low
    Dear Moderator, I am stuck. Apparently, the comment function on the article "Shakun e.a." seems to be bugged. It took several days before my questions actually appeared. Now, sometimes I can see my questions I posted there, sometimes not. I suspect that some answers to my questions might not have gotten through or are stuck. Could you pls check? (http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?p=4&t=151&&n=1391)
  22. The View from Germany: Tackling the real questions
    gws: My point is that it's physically impossible for NG to be lower than 178g/kWh, so (-snip-).
    Moderator Response: [DB] Accusations of impropriety and deception snipped.
  23. The View from Germany: Tackling the real questions
    quokka (Speedy) following your link shows that the listed "kWh" is the energy content in the fuel, not the electricity produced ... from that page: "Note! Heat loss - 55-75% - in power generation is not included in the numbers. Again: Contact the Oekoinstitut before you make any bias claims. They have a very high reputation in Germany, and will be happy to defend their choices.
  24. WSJ, Sandy, and Global Warming - Asking the Right Questions
    Brian: To answer your question on statistical significance of the Atlantic ACE trends, the trends and uncertainties calculated using an AR(1) noise model: 1850-2011: 0.30 +/- 0.10 1900-2011: 0.44 +/- 0.19 1950-2011: 0.42 +/- 0.46 1970-2011: 2.31 +/- 0.80 Trends are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level from 1850, 1900 or 1970, but not if you start from the 1950 peak.
  25. Climate of Doubt Strategy #1: Deny the Consensus
    An interesting exercise would be for the producers of "Climate of Doubt" to return to North Carolina after "Sandy" and re-interview Bill Cook (State Rep) to see if his confidence in Fred Singer is unshaken. A repeat interview of Stanley Riggs (Univ East Carolina)and NC-20 chairman Tom Thompson at the same locations shown in the original documentary may also be revealing. Did the waterfront infrastructure and beachfront properties in North Carolina survive the storm? I would expect "before" and "after" the storm images would say it all.
  26. WSJ, Sandy, and Global Warming - Asking the Right Questions
    But Pielke is right that the peer-reviewed literature is clear that attribution of disaster losses to AGW simply is not possible right now. But the fact that a number cannot be put to it, doesn't mean the number is zero. It's the same with externalities. In the WSJ op-ed Pielke writes: "If Sandy causes $20 billion in damage (in 2012 dollars) it would rank as the 17th most damaging hurricane or tropical storm (out of 242) to hit the U.S. since 1900—a significant event, but not close to the top 10." Any updates on that?
  27. WSJ, Sandy, and Global Warming - Asking the Right Questions
    'Scruggs and Benegal (2012)' link needs fixing ("file not found"). thanks
  28. WSJ, Sandy, and Global Warming - Asking the Right Questions
    Thanks for the comment, Brian. You make a number of valid points. For instance, adhoc I cannot find any peer-reviewed studies challenging the Pielke normalization methodology, or offering a better one. However, while it makes sense intuitively, I still find it highly human-centric (aka human population and wealth only is assessed), and snap-shot like. Meaning, long-term effects are not (and maybe cannot be) considered, but would be the baseline to compare against. Also, I think the point in the post about human adaptive development is hardly "misguided". At first glance, there may be no effect, but upon thinking of examples, especially improved drainage system in reponse to urban flooding, I think you will realize that adaptation has indeed taken place. And I would venture to say that the investment into that public infrastructure has paid off.
  29. The View from Germany: Tackling the real questions
    Which has prompted me to actually look up the emissions per kWh from combustion of fossil fuels Combustion Fuels - Carbon Dioxide Emission Nat Gas: 0.23 kg/kWh Light Oil: 0.26 kg/kWh Crude Oil: 0.26 kg/kWh Kerosene: 0.26 kg/kWh Diesel: 0.24 kg/kWh Natural gas is not just methane which probably accounts for the discrepancy with the above methane figure. From these figures, it would seem that unless the laws of physics have been rewritten, the claims about CHP emissions are not believable.
  30. Global Surface Temperature: Going Down the Up Escalator, Part 1
    (Rob P) - "...See my previous moderator comment. The fallacy in your claim has not been addressed..." Hi Rob. 1. Re the above, sorry, I am really not sure which was the fallacy? The temperatures stated were as published in Levitus etal. The calculated value was from the stated energy accumulation. 2. There are some problems with your comments section. Some very valid criticisms of my methods have disappeared, as have my (slightly humble) mathematical corrections, my temperature calculations being shown incorrectly smaller than they really were by a factor of 10.
  31. The View from Germany: Tackling the real questions
    @Speedy Combustion of methane is 178g/kWh at 100% efficiency Thanks Speedy. I should have looked it up, but it is kind of obvious that this is in the ballpark that one would expect from quoted thermal performance of CCGTs.
  32. The View from Germany: Tackling the real questions
    Martin @32: ...and in Figure 3 it says, that the heat produced (in combined heat-power mode) is accounted as replacing oil heating. (-snip-). (-snip-).
    Moderator Response: [DB] Accusations of deception and impropriety snipped.
  33. The View from Germany: Tackling the real questions
    Pete at @30 "China is following France's example " Sounds like a leap. While the article you list sounds like China plans to make nuclear its main power source, current production largely satisfies increasing demand. And all PWR. Hmmh, possible in (non-democratic) China maybe, but the world? And oh, it happens so that China does renewables with similar speed and determination. So it follows Germany's example, right? Right. This and your comment @34 suggest that you have not considered the issues I listed @27, and explained in the source I gave. Maybe China has. quokka Good to be skeptical (about lines 5 (CCGT) to 7 (block-CHP on biogas) in that table). Shoot the Oekoinstitut an email and ask, they will answer. These numbers go back to about 1997, so if they were seriously flawed, I am sure the nuclear industry had pointed that out yet.
  34. Book review: Rising Sea Levels: An Introduction to Cause and Impact by Hunt Janin and Scott Mandia
    Here's an interesting thought. Any improvements to coastal defences taken to protect against future tidal surges will involve heavy use of earth moving machinery, cement production, quarrying, dredging etc. This will involve the burning of considerable quantities of fossil fuels :-(
  35. WSJ, Sandy, and Global Warming - Asking the Right Questions
    Since Pielke has chosen not to comment here, I'll add a few points. Many people claim to see the effect of AGW on disaster losses. With Sandy the claim has focused on hurricane losses in particular. But Pielke is right that the peer-reviewed literature is clear that attribution of disaster losses to AGW simply is not possible right now. The signal, whatever it might be, is much smaller than the noise. This will remain true for at least a century. No amount of wishing is going to make it so. With regard to hurricane losses, the following point can't be stressed enough: There can be no AGW signal in hurricane losses in the U.S. because there has been no change in landfalling hurricane frequency or strength since record-keeping started. The trends, though not significant, are both down, in fact. Until you accept and digest this basic reality, you cannot intelligently address the issue of losses. Pielke's work on normalization of losses is carefully done and has been fully accepted and undisputed in the peer-reviewed literature. It independently confirms what one expects from the data on hurricanes, tornadoes, etc., namely that no trends in weather data imply no increase in normalized, weather-related disasters. Emanuel's work is interesting but not relevant to the issue of LOSSES if the hurricanes don't reach land. Keep in mind that Emanuel argues that the more extensive Atlantic basin data set allows him to detect a trend that is not yet evident in the landfalling data. Whether that detected trend is true or not, he agrees that no attribution of losses can be made to hurricanes since the signal is missing in the landfalling data. Unfortunately, Emanuel's data has problems as well, since long-term coverage of the Atlantic basin storm record is spotty at best and suffers from measurement bias induced by the satellite era. Emanuel's improved statistics are of questionable value given the uncertain status of systematic errors. Please note that the graph given above for Atlantic basin ACE appears to have no statistically significant trend with the noise as large as it is. If you think the trend is significant, please provide the uncertainty. The arguments repeatedly made above about improvements in adaptation, such as better building codes, having an effect on losses are misguided. While substantial improvements in building codes have indeed been made, few of these adaptations are aimed specifically at hurricane losses, but rather at improved day-to-day safety, environmental impact, and cost. Unless structures are designed and built specifically for hurricanes, there's no reason to expect buildings to withstand hurricanes any better. Consider that a colonial-era fieldstone structure is more likely to survive than a modern lumber and siding structure. Is this so hard to understand?
    Moderator Response: All-caps converted to italics in accordance with the comments policy.
  36. The View from Germany: Tackling the real questions
    Energy from fission, energy from fossil fuels. Apples and oranges. Biofuels , at best a niche product. For the heavy lifting in emission free energy the only answer for now is nuclear. I shall again quote my personal prophet Bob Dylan . "Let us not speak falsely now , the hour is getting late" (From all along the Watchtower)
  37. Global Surface Temperature: Going Down the Up Escalator, Part 1
    [SNIP]
    Moderator Response: (Rob P) - See my previous moderator comment. The fallacy in your claim has not been addressed, and you have simply persisted with this nonsensical notion. This is your 2nd warning for sloganeering (and note that this applies to reasonable dialogue peppered with sloganeering). No more warnings will be given, so please take the time to acquaint yourself with the comments policy
  38. The View from Germany: Tackling the real questions
    @Martin Vermeer, If you are going to account for emissions by how much oil heating (or gas heating) is displaced, then you need to consider the whole picture. In France, about a third of homes are electrically heated and about 90% of new homes. It's viable due to the low off peak electricity costs due to nuclear power. If you then subtract the emissions saved in heating from the life cycle emissions of nuclear power you will end up with a very attractive figure - possibly negative. This would be a fair comparison with micro gas CHP. The above attempt to show that even gas CHP has lower emissions than nuclear is not valid because it's terms of reference are too restricted and designed to reach a particular conclusion. There are also a number of places around the world where nuclear is used to provide district heating as well as electricity. The UK CCC devotes a large section of the "The Renewable Energy Review" to renewable heat. Their clear preference is for electrification where possible by heat pumps and where not possible by resistive heating. They did consider CHP and district heating, but reserved it as a topic for further study with fairly limited potential.
  39. WSJ, Sandy, and Global Warming - Asking the Right Questions
    Sphaerica @12 - somewhere in the post I linked a back-and-forth with Pielke commenting on Emanuel (2005) and Emanuel commenting back. Pielke made his 'no normalized US hurricane damage trend' comment and Emanuel came back saying that in looking at all Atlantic hurricanes he was using far more data. This is my point, that we know Atlantic hurricanes are becoming more intense, so if that hasn't impacted the USA yet, what's to make us believe that fortune will continue? In a changing climate, Pielke's argument seems like a 'fingers crossed' hope we get lucky when the evidence suggests we won't.
  40. WSJ, Sandy, and Global Warming - Asking the Right Questions
    Michael, agreed all weather has a socioeconomic compononent. My point was that: you can argue we have more declared disasters because it's a "political" response, we have more billion dollar weather events and more insurance paid out because we have more infrastructure at risk etc etc. More precipitation falling as intense events, more droughts, more forest fires, more extreme heat events are simple physical measurements, there is no socioeconomic component to their measurement. Obviously Munich Re doesn’t believe the insurance risk is higher because “there’s more stuff in the way”, and I don’t either.
  41. WSJ, Sandy, and Global Warming - Asking the Right Questions
    10, dana1981, I was looking at historical storm tracks (see here and here.), wondering if there has been a change in the tracks of storms so that fewer hit the USA. It's possible, but I'd need to download and analyze the data to see. But I don't think it's worth the time. After just perusing the data, it looks to me like so few storms hit the USA mainland that it's just a "sparse data cherry pick." That is, without decades upon decades of data, you won't get enough to say if there's been a change. It's a very easy thing to do, to say "no change" because so few storms hit, and without a 100% increase in the number of storms, you're not going to see a big change in that 0-3 storms making landfall average. Interestingly, storms seem to take one of 3 tracks. If they form far enough south, they go straight and stay south and hit the Caribbean and Mexico, and maybe turn up to hit the USA Gulf Coast. If they form west or north, they turn sooner, maybe skirting Florida and then heading out to sea. And if they form in the "sweet spot", where they turn late, they'll hit landfall in the Gulf or East Coast. But that sweet spot is so small that very, very few storms form there. Of course, now we have a fourth category, the "zig zagger" that turns north, then turns back to the coast. Anyone know anything about this (the science behind predicted storm tracks)?
  42. Martin Vermeer at 08:24 AM on 7 November 2012
    The View from Germany: Tackling the real questions
    > I've got to be skeptical of that emissions figure and would > like to know how they are doing their carbon accounting. Documented here. "Die rechnerisch negativen Emissionen des BHKW mit Biogas ergeben sich, weil die Gutschrift für die in Kraft-Wärme-Kopplung erzeugte Wärme größer ist als die Gesamtemissionen des BHKW, das CO2-neutrales Biogas einsetzt. Dies zeigt die fol- gende Abbildung nochmals grafisch." ...and in Figure 3 it says, that the heat produced (in combined heat-power mode) is accounted as replacing oil heating.
  43. WSJ, Sandy, and Global Warming - Asking the Right Questions
    Alpinist, All weather has a socioeconomic impact. It just depends how hard you look. Heavy rain events cause more floods. Google Duluth Michigan earlier this year. Fire acreage affects logging, a prime employer in many rural districts, and tourism. My food is more expensive today because of the midwestern drought last summer. It will continue to get more expensive until there is a good harvest. A portion of the unrest in the Mid East is due to increased food costs, caused by drought. The deniers claim no effects are happening. You just have to look more carefully. That is why Pielke is so selective in his measurements. If he chooses broader measurements, like Munich Re does, the pattern is clear.
  44. WSJ, Sandy, and Global Warming - Asking the Right Questions
    I invited Pielke Jr. to comment here but he has declined. Apparently he prefers to toss insults at SkS from the comfort of his own blog. Several commenters there have done a good job holding his feet to the fire though, so he's clarified his position a bit. Esentially Pielke argues that hurricane power dissipation index (PDI) within the USA has not increased, at least as of 2005 (citing a 2006 paper by Landsea) - I would love to see if that's still true given the high hurricane activity this decade. This despite the fact that Atlantic basin PDI has increased, per Emanuel's work. If both are correct, then despite Atlantic hurricanes becoming more intense, for some reason the average intensity has not increased once they reach the US coast. My response to that would be that if Francis is right and the Arctic sea ice decline is going to cause more blocking events near Greenland and thus more hurricanes turning toward the US coast like Sandy, why should we expect that trend to continue? This is an issue Pielke has not addressed at all. Nevertheless, his argument is that since US PDI has not increased, normalized losses should not have increased either. Thus if his normalization shows no trend, he's gotten the right answer, so his methodology must be right, even though he entirely fails to account for technological improvements. Pielke hasn't made this argument explicitly, but it's what I gather from what little defense he's willing to put forth and what few questions he's willing to answer. And if this is his argument ('I got the answer I expected therefore I'm right'), it's just plain bad science.
  45. Hurricane Sandy: Neither weather nor tide nor sea level can be legislated
    Interesting... (my last post on this topic here:) New Jersey Earthquake 2012: Small Quake Rattles Ringwood Community http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/05/new-jersey-earthquake-2012_n_2075620.html N.J. - Some residents in northern New Jersey awoke to a small earthquake early Monday. The temblor, with a magnitude of 2.0, struck at 1:19 a.m. and was centered in Ringwood, a community that's still dealing with downed trees and power outages from Sandy.
  46. WSJ, Sandy, and Global Warming - Asking the Right Questions
    The focus on what’s “sexy” at the moment, be it hurricanes, tornadoes, derechoes, or what have you does miss the point. There are a variety of extreme weather events that happen and do not rise to the level of getting a name or a title. There are a variety of metrics to approximate this; declared disasters, billion dollar weather events, forest fire acreage, drought severity, disruptions to the electrical grid, insured losses from catastrophes etc. Some of these have a socio-economic component which is hard to avoid. The observed increase in the amount of precipitation falling in very heavy precipitation has no socio-economic component, forest fire acreage burned can be complex, but it doesn’t have much of socio-economic component, nor do extreme heat events/drought. If Pielke wants to focus on hurricanes, not only is he cherry picking the data, he’s cherry picking the events. Cross posted @ Tamino's...
  47. WSJ, Sandy, and Global Warming - Asking the Right Questions
    Since we all know what Pielke Jr’s agenda really is this is no surprise at all. That it would be published in WSJ is no surprise at all. We all recognize the standard tactic of cherry-picking the data and obfuscation. I wonder why the US experience is the only one that should matter since, after all, we are talking about GLOBAL warming. I wonder what the Texas farmers who have experienced two consecutive growing seasons of drought would have to say about Pielke Jr’s claim that droughts have become less frequent. I am just grateful for SkS, Dana, and all the others who provide a site where science, truth and reason can shine through!
  48. WSJ, Sandy, and Global Warming - Asking the Right Questions
    In Firefox the only two images I can see are the Bloomberg cover and "The 2012 Atlantic...". When I click on those empty spots I get file not found. I tried hard refresh to no avail. Works fine in Safari.
  49. WSJ, Sandy, and Global Warming - Asking the Right Questions
    Hah, I like the 'bazillion-word' comment. This post is a little bit on the long side, but 2700 words is hardly a 'bazillion'. Personally I prefer a bit of long-winded technical detail to a trite one-word retort. For now my default assumption is that Pielke doesn't have an intelligent response to these criticisms of his comments in the WSJ.
  50. WSJ, Sandy, and Global Warming - Asking the Right Questions
    Are you not being a bit to "nice" from the post about Grinsted et al. "Grinsted et al. have identified an important and reliable indicator of landfalling storms in the U.S. southeast, and have found clear (and statistically significant) evidence of increase in activity over time and association with warmer temperatures. As the world continues to warm, expect the trends to continue."

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