Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #46 2024
Posted on 14 November 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Microbial solutions must be deployed against climate catastrophe, Peixoto et al., Nature Communications [comment]:
The climate crisis is escalating. A multitude of microbe-based solutions have been proposed, and these technologies hold great promise and could be deployed along with other climate mitigation strategies. However, these solutions have not been deployed effectively at scale. To reverse this inaction, collaborators across different sectors are needed — from industry, funders and policymakers — to coordinate their widespread deployment with the goal of avoiding climate catastrophe. This collective call from joint scientific societies, institutions, editors and publishers, requests that the global community and governments take immediate and decisive emergency action, while also proposing a clear and effective framework for deploying these solutions at scale.
Irreversible changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection to CO2 forcing, Park et al., Communications Earth & Environment:
Cave air temperatures in four caves in the European Alps show statistically significant warming trends of about 0.2 °C per decade over the last two decades (2000–2020). These trends are about half as large as those observed outside and are characterized by a remarkable spatial and temporal consistency. The investigated caves represent different types in terms of their ventilation regime and one of them also hosts perennial ice. Key observation sites are located in cave sections where the temporal variability of air temperature is strongly attenuated compared to outside conditions and data from different cave sections show that the main results are valid for large parts of the investigated caves. Continued warming will lead to broad changes in alpine cave environments, including changes in strength and direction of air flow in caves, karst hydrology and subsurface ecosystems. The observed subsurface warming has a particular strong effect on the long-term preservation of perennial ice present in some of these caves. This is shown for an ice cave in the Austrian Alps, where enhanced melt of ice correlates with the observed warming. This cave (and similar ones) will not be able to hold perennial ice beyond the next decade.
Ross Ice Shelf frontal zone subjected to increasing melting by ocean surface waters, Sheehan & Heywood, Science Advances:
Solar-warmed surface waters subduct beneath Antarctica’s ice shelves as a result of wind forcing, but this process is poorly observed and its interannual variability is yet to be assessed. We observe a 50-meter-thick intrusion of warm surface water immediately beneath the Ross Ice Shelf. Temperature in the uppermost 5 meters decreases toward the ice base in near-perfect agreement with an exponential fit, consistent with the loss of heat to the overlying ice. Ekman forcing drives a heat transport into the cavity sufficient to contribute considerably to near-front melting; this transport has increased over the past four decades, driven by the increasing heat content of the ice-front polynya.
Climate change terminology does not influence willingness to take climate action, Goldwert et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology:
Despite widespread concern about climate change, a majority of people are not engaging in climate actions necessary to help decrease the risks posed by global warming. Many practitioners and scholars have argued that the climate change terminology can be leveraged to elicit distinct reactions. However, the results of different climate change terms have been mixed. The current research addresses this ongoing debate by directly testing the impact of climate terminology. Across two experiments (Ntotal=6,132, recruited globally in 63 countries in Experiment 1, and a replication in the US in Experiment 2), we explored whether climate terminology influenced the extent to which individuals were willing to engage in preventative action. We tested the differential effect of 10 frequently used terms (i.e., “climate change”, “climate crisis”, “global warming”, “global heating”, “climate emergency”, “carbon pollution”, “carbon emissions”, “greenhouse gasses”, “greenhouse effect”, “global boiling”). Despite high willingness to engage in climate action (74% in Experiment 1 and 57% in Experiment 2), the terms had no impact on intentions to act. Bayesian ANOVAs strongly supported the null hypothesis in both studies. This pattern of null results was robust across a wide variety of populations (including age, gender, political ideology, socioeconomic status, and education level), as well as across numerous psychological and cultural variables. Our null results suggest that subtle differences in climate change language are not a barrier to climate action, indicating that focusing on subtle terminology in climate messaging is not an effective use of resources.
Harnessing oil and gas superprofits for climate action, Egli et al., Climate Policy:
Climate change disproportionately harms low-income countries, whilst international climate finance to support them remains inadequate. Negotiations about the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) centre around how to cover increasing needs of developing countries. Windfall profits of the fossil fuel industry, which benefits from this dominant source of greenhouse gas emissions, could contribute to mobilizing more finance, both for the NCQG and wider needs of domestic and international climate finance. We find that the energy crisis of 2022 led to oil and gas industry ‘superprofits’ in the same year – defined as being above the stated expectations at the beginning of the year – amounting to about half a trillion dollars (US$490 bn above the $753 bn projected by the companies). Over $200 bn of this accrued to companies directly controlled by governments, two-thirds of which do not have a historical commitment to contribute to international climate finance. The remaining $280 bn of superprofits went to privately controlled companies, of which over 95% are headquartered in countries currently contributing to international climate finance. We argue that there is a clear case to include fossil fuel profits on the agenda of UNFCCC climate finance negotiations and to pursue an international agreement on minimum fossil fuel production taxes. Given that most privately controlled superprofits occurred in G20 countries and the group's ability to reach agreement on corporation taxes recently, the G20 could be a natural forum to pursue such policy action.
From this week's government and NGO section:
Extreme Weather, Extreme Content: How Big Tech Enables Climate Disinformation In a World on the Brink, Climate Action Against Disinformation
The authors present three new case studies that provide a snapshot into the online world of English-language climate disinformation. The key findings from the report include opposition to renewables—despite having years to clean up their platforms, Big Tech continues to allow a small number of “super-spreaders” to pollute their platforms with debunked claims attacking renewable energy and electric vehicles; weaponizing wildfires-disinformation operations are exploiting extreme weather events to fuel opposition to climate policies, and recently, have led to threats of violence against emergency response personnel; and fossil fuel advertising on Meta-fossil fuel companies continue to use digital advertising to launder their image.
The Educator's Guide to Climate Emotions, Carolyn McGrath and Kate Schapira, Climate Psychology Alliance of North America
The climate crisis is profoundly impacting the emotional well-being of young people. While teaching about the causes, consequences, and responses to global warming, K-12 educators can create space for students to identify, understand, and express their feelings about living through a time of rapid environmental change. The authors offer suggestions for age-appropriate pedagogical approaches, cross-disciplinary teaching methods, as well as opportunities for collective action and collaboration. The guide highlights the transformative potential of incorporating emotions in climate education to foster a sense of agency, efficacy, and purpose among students.
The Teacher-Friendly Guide to Climate Change, Zabel et al, Paleontological Research Institution
The guide includes both the basics of climate change science and perspectives on teaching a subject that has become socially and politically polarized. The focus audience is high school Earth science and environmental science teachers, and it is written with an eye toward the kind of information and graphics that a secondary school teacher might need in the classroom.
137 articles in 54 journals by 979 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
A Systematic Local View of the Long-Term Changes in the Atmospheric Energy Cycle, Liu et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0106.1
An emerging pathway of Atlantic Water to the Barents Sea through the Svalbard Archipelago: drivers and variability, Kalhagen et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2023-3080
Assessing Radiative Feedbacks and Their Contribution to the Arctic Amplification Measured by Various Metrics, Huo et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd040880
Comparing the Atmospheric Responses to Reduced Arctic Sea Ice, a Warmer Ocean, and Increased CO2 and Their Contributions to Projected Change at 2°C Global Warming, Yu et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0104.1
Estimated human-induced warming from a linear temperature and atmospheric CO2 relationship, Jarvis & Forster, Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-024-01580-5
From the Surface to the Stratosphere: Large-Scale Atmospheric Response to Antarctic Meltwater, Beadling et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110157
Irreversible changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection to CO2 forcing, Park et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01751-7
Reductions in atmospheric levels of non-CO2 greenhouse gases explain about a quarter of the 1998-2012 warming slowdown, Su et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01723-x
Observations of climate change, effects
20th century climate warming and human disturbance triggered high aquatic production and strong water-column mixing in maar Lake Xiaolongwan, northeastern China, Tu et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2024.100442
China is suffering from fewer but more severe Drought to flood abrupt alternation events, Su et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100737
Climate Extremes in the New Zealand Region: Mechanisms, Impacts and Attribution, Salinger et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8667
Climate warming detected in caves of the European Alps, Obleitner et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-78658-y
Earth's record-high greenness and its attributions in 2020, Zhang et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114494
Emerging Climate Change Signals in Atmospheric Circulation, Shaw et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2024av001297
Global record-breaking recurrence rates indicate more widespread and intense surface air temperature and precipitation extremes, Benestad et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.ado3712
How climate change intensified storm Boris’ extreme rainfall, revealed by near-real-time storylines, Athanase et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01847-0
ISASO2: recent trends and regional patterns of ocean dissolved oxygen change, Kolodziejczyk et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-16-5191-2024
Temperature and Precipitation Extremes Over Borneo Island: An Integrated Climate Risk Assessment, Hamed et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8682
Temperature Trends and Influence of the Base Period Selection on Climate Indices in the Mediterranean Region Over the Period 1961–2020, Di Bernardino et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8678
Trend Analysis and Spatial Behaviour of the Fire Weather Index in the Mediterranean Iberian Peninsula, 1971–2022, Orgambides?García et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8684
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
A Mystery of the Inconsistency Between Microwave Polarimetric Observations and Radiative Transfer Simulations, Zhu & Weng, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111553
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Aerosol-Induced Changes in Atmospheric and Oceanic Heat Transports in the CESM2 Large Ensemble, Needham et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0455.1
An intensification of surface Earth’s energy imbalance since the late 20th century, Li et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01802-z
Constraints on the Projected Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Warming Pattern by the Tropical North Atlantic Cold SST Bias in CMIP6 Models, Ying et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111233
Emergence of a climate oscillation in the Arctic Ocean due to global warming, Kim & An, Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02171-3
More than three-fold increase in compound soil and air dryness across Europe by the end of 21st century, Shekhar et al., Open Access 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3143908/v2
Recent impact of reduced arctic sea-ice on the winter North Atlantic jet stream and its quantitative contributions compared to pre-industrial level, Jiang et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107778
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
A Stepwise-Clustered Precipitation Downscaling Method for Ensemble Climatic Projections in the Mediterranean Region, Wang et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8651
An extensible perturbed parameter ensemble for the Community Atmosphere Model version 6, Eidhammer et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-7835-2024
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
An updated aerosol simulation in the Community Earth System Model (v2.1.3): dust and marine aerosol emissions and secondary organic aerosol formation, Wang et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-7995-2024
CMIP6 Models Underestimate Arctic Sea Ice Loss during the Early Twentieth-Century Warming, despite Simulating Large Low-Frequency Sea Ice Variability, Bianco et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0647.1
Evaluation of CMIP6 model performance in simulating historical biogeochemistry across the southern South China Sea, Marshal et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-72
Indian Ocean Intermediate Water Masses and Their Simulations by CMIP6 Models, Zhou et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0667.1
Processes Driving the Intermodel Spread of the Southern Hemisphere Hadley Circulation Expansion in CMIP6 Models, Hur et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd041726
Towards better understanding the urban environment and its interactions with regional climate change - The WCRP CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study URB-RCC, Langendijk et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102165
Cryosphere & climate change
Ross Ice Shelf frontal zone subjected to increasing melting by ocean surface waters, Sheehan & Heywood, Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.ado6429
Sensitivity of the future evolution of the Wilkes Subglacial Basin ice sheet to grounding-line melt parameterizations, Wang et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-5117-2024
Sea level & climate change
The curve: An ethnography of projecting sea level rise under uncertainty, O’Reilly & Oppenheimer, Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102947
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Climate Conundrum: A Wet or Dry European and Northern African Climate During the Middle Miocene, Acosta et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109499
Coupled decline in ocean pH and carbonate saturation during the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, Li et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-024-01579-y
Greening of India and revival of the South Asian summer monsoon in a warmer world, Clément et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01781-1
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Coexistence of vascular plants and biocrusts under changing climates and their influence on ecosystem carbon fluxes, Dou et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110298
Contributions of ecological restoration policies to China’s land carbon balance, Yue et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54100-9
Great Gerbils (Rhombomys opimus) in Central Asia Are Spreading to Higher Latitudes and Altitudes, Liu et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70517
Large Reductions in Temperate Rainforest Biome Due to Unmitigated Climate Change, Silver et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004812
Major distribution shifts are projected for key rangeland grasses under a high-emission scenario in East Africa at the end of the 21st century, Messmer et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01731-x
Near-term ecological forecasting for climate change action, Dietze et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02182-0
Past foraminiferal acclimatization capacity is limited during future warming, Ying et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-024-08029-0
Phenological mismatch is less important than total nectar availability for checkerspot butterflies, Crone et al., Ecology Open Access 10.1002/ecy.4461
Recurrent marine heatwaves compromise the reproduction success and long-term viability of shallow populations of the Mediterranean gorgonian Eunicella singularis, Sarda et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106822
The effect of climate change and temperature extremes on Aedes albopictus populations: a regional case study for Italy, Garrido Zornoza et al., Journal of The Royal Society Interface Open Access 10.1098/rsif.2024.0319
The Neglected Role of Sex-Biased Dispersal in Range-Shift Prediction Under Climate Change, Santini et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access 10.1111/ddi.13942
The plant ecology of nature-based solutions for people, biodiversity and climate, Buckley et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/1365-2745.14441
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
A post-processed carbon flux dataset for 34 eddy covariance flux sites across the Heihe River Basin, China, Wang et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2024-370
Annual grass invasions and wildfire deplete ecosystem carbon storage by >50% to resistant base levels, Maxwell et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01795-9
ARGO: ARctic greenhouse Gas Observation metadata version 1, Vogt et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2024-456
Decadal changes of anthropogenic carbon in the Atlantic 1990–2010, Steinfeldt et al., Open Access 10.5194/bg-2023-113
Diel Greenhouse Gas Emissions Demonstrate a Strong Response to Vegetation Patch Types in a Freshwater Wetland, Taylor et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2024jg008193
Dynamic Responses of Soil Organic Carbon to Urbanization: A Global Perspective, Xu et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17573
Dynamics of CO2 fluxes and environmental responses in a Poplar plantation, Ge et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1443779
Fate of methane in canals draining tropical peatlands, Perryman et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54063-x
Free competition, come hell or high water? How neoliberalism prevailed and why Finland allowed peat to decline in the midst of an energy crisis, Faber, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103832
Herbivore grazing enhances macroalgal organic carbon release and alters their carbon sequestration fate in the ocean, Li et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106842
Land use modeling and carbon storage projections of the Bosten Lake Basin in China from 1990 to 2050 across multiple scenarios, Li et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-78693-9
Rapid Down-Slope Transport of Fresh Dissolved Organic Matter to the Deep Ocean in the Eastern North Atlantic, Wei et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110349
Salt marsh litter decomposition varies more by litter type than by extent of sea-level inundation, Arnaud et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01855-0
Seasonal CO2 amplitude in northern high latitudes, Liu et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-024-00600-7
Simulating Ips typographus L. outbreak dynamics and their influence on carbon balance estimates with ORCHIDEE r8627, Marie et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-8023-2024
Soil organic carbon maps and associated uncertainty at 90 m for peninsular Spain, Durante et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2024-431
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Warming-induced contrasts in snow depth drive the future trajectory of soil carbon loss across the Arctic-Boreal region, Pongracz et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01838-1
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Advancing the frontiers of CO2 geological storage: A statistical and computational perspective, Li et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104906
CO? sequestration and soil improvement in enhanced rock weathering: A review from an experimental perspective, Cong et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.2313
Gigaton gear – policy insights for scaling up the global deployment of direct air carbon capture and sequestration technology (DACCS), Wesche & Skjølsvold, Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2425010
Light-dependent methane production by a coccolithophorid may counteract its photosynthetic contribution to carbon dioxide sequestration, Rao et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01860-3
Mangrove vulnerability and blue carbon storage in the Coral Triangle Areas, Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, Analuddin et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.3389/fevo.2024.1420827
Policy stagnation or reevaluation? Exploring the regulatory dimensions of carbon capture, utilisation and storage in Finland and the Baltic countries, Hein, Handbook of Economic Stagnation Open Access 10.1016/b978-0-12-815898-2.00019-7
Policy stagnation or reevaluation? Exploring the regulatory dimensions of carbon capture, utilisation and storage in Finland and the Baltic countries, Hein, Handbook of Economic Stagnation Open Access 10.1016/b978-0-12-815898-2.00019-7
Tree planting is no climate solution at northern high latitudes, Kristensen et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-024-01573-4
Understanding public acceptance amidst controversy and ignorance: The case of industrial Carbon Capture and Storage in Germany, Große-Kreul et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103838
Decarbonization
Current-Day and Future Dunkelflaute Risks for Belgium, Duchêne et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-24-0007.1
Intensification of an Autumn Tropical Cyclone by Offshore Wind Farms in the Northern South China Sea, Deng et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024jd041489
Study on carbon emissions of a small hydropower plant in Southwest China, Tang et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1462571
Geoengineering climate
A protocol for model intercomparison of impacts of marine cloud brightening climate intervention, Rasch et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2024-1031
Mapping the global variation in the efficiency of ocean alkalinity enhancement for carbon dioxide removal, Zhou et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02179-9
Projected future changes in extreme precipitation over China under stratospheric aerosol intervention in the UKESM1 climate model, Wang et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-12355-2024
Aerosols
CREST: a Climate Data Record of Stratospheric Aerosols, Sofieva et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-16-5227-2024
Climate change communications & cognition
Caring about one's legacy relates to constructive coping with climate change, Mah et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102471
Climate change terminology does not influence willingness to take climate action, Goldwert et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102482
Climate Communication with Chinese Youth by Chinese Nongovernmental Organizations: A Case Study of Chinese Weather Enthusiasts on Bilibili, Che et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0131.1
Communicating consensus among climate scientists increases estimates of consensus and belief in human-caused climate change across the globe, Stekelenburg et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102480
Internet image search outputs propagate climate change sentiment and impact policy support, Berkebile-Weinberg et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02178-w
Walking for Joy? Using a living laboratory to shift to more climate-friendly lifestyles in Santiago, Chile, Sagaris & Palacios, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103796
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Can wood harvest followed by forest regrowth enhance carbon sequestration of the forest sector in China?, Wang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104626
Changes in the Yield Effect of the Preceding Crop in the US Corn Belt Under a Warming Climate, Zhou et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17556
Can wood harvest followed by forest regrowth enhance carbon sequestration of the forest sector in China?, Wang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104626
Lower methane and nitrous oxide emissions from rice-aquaculture co-culture systems than from rice paddies in southeast China,, Fang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109540
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Climate change economics
Author Correction: World economies’ progress in decoupling from CO2 emissions, Freire-González et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-75404-2
COP29’s climate investment imperative, Buchner, Science 10.1126/science.adu3212
Fission for funds: The financing of nuclear power plants, Weibezahn & Steigerwald Weibezahn, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114382
Harnessing oil and gas superprofits for climate action, Egli et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2424516
Climate change mitigation public policy research
1 + 1 > 2? The synergistic effect of carbon emissions reduction policies: empirical evidence from China, Jiang et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2424230
An assessment of China’s methane mitigation potential and costs and uncertainties through 2060, Khanna et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54038-y
Analysing the energy landscape in Africa using cluster analysis: Drivers of renewable energy development, Kanzari et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114366
Assessing corporate climate action: Corporate climate policies and company-level emission reductions, Klaaßen et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000458
Climate Change Mitigation: A Question of Humanitarian or Environmental Motivation?, Parris et al., PsycTESTS Dataset Open Access 10.1037/t60470-000
Coal price, economic growth and electricity consumption in China under the background of energy transition, Lin & Shi, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114400
Do they really mean it? What the conservative climate caucus is for and against, Collomb, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103835
Climate Change Mitigation: A Question of Humanitarian or Environmental Motivation?, Parris et al., PsycTESTS Dataset Open Access 10.1037/t60470-000
Coal price, economic growth and electricity consumption in China under the background of energy transition, Lin & Shi, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114400
Estimating countries’ additional carbon accountability for closing the mitigation gap based on past and future emissions, Hahn et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54039-x
Humanization promotes equality over efficiency preference in carbon allocation, Huang et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102481
Participation in Energy Transitions: A Comparison of Policy Styles, Radtke & Renn , Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103743
Prefiguring energy futures: Hybrid energy initiatives and just transitions in fossil fuel regions, Egler & Barbieri, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103830
Private aviation is making a growing contribution to climate change, Gössling et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01775-z
The sun is not enough: The slow solar transition in Arizona and Algeria, Pasqualetti et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103827
US land sector mitigation investments and emissions implications, Favero et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-53915-w
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Between theory and action: Assessing the transformative character of climate change adaptation in 51 cases in the Netherlands, Engbersen et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102948
CLIM-SEG: A generalizable segmentation model for heat and flood risk mapping, Ray et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100654
Data-driven complementary indices and metrics for assessing national progress on climate risk and adaptation, Serrano-Candela et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000365
Heterogeneous effects of climate change on displacement-inducing disasters, Beyer et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1260028
Indigenous knowledge in climate adaptation planning: reflections from initial efforts, Ciocco et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1393354
Land-use competition in 1.5°C climate stabilization: is there enough land for all potential needs?, Gurgel et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1393327
Misguided negative adaptation narratives are hurting the poor, Schipper & Mukherji, Science 10.1126/science.adq7821
Planned relocation may reduce communities’ future exposure to coastal inundation but effect varies with emission scenario and geography, Bower et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01854-1
Practitioner perspectives on sea-level rise impacts on shallow groundwater: Implications for infrastructure asset management and climate adaptation, Bosserelle & Hughes, Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102195
The Promise of Resistance: A New Lens for Climate Change Adaptation Research and Practice, Mills?Novoa & Mikulewicz, WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.922
Climate change impacts on human health
Hot and cold: Policy perspectives on overheating and cooling in United Kingdom homes, Hoggett et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103803
Psychological health declined during the post-monsoon season in communities impacted by sea-level rise in Bangladesh, Kabir et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01862-1
Climate change & geopolitics
Climate migration management? Contrasting international policy approaches with evidence from Ghana, Lindegaard et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2411326
Climate change impacts on human culture
Spatiotemporal changes in tourism climate comfort in Sichuan Province from 1961 to 2022, Wang et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8626
Other
Gender-based climate (in)justice: An overview, Guedes et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103934
Modeling the distribution of cultural ecosystem services based on future climate variables under different scenarios, You et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-78798-1
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Durability of carbon dioxide removal is critical for Paris climate goals, Brunner et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01808-7
Global Carbon Budget 2024, Friedlingstein et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2024-519
Microbial solutions must be deployed against climate catastrophe, Peixoto et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-53680-w
Planetary Boundaries guide humanity’s future on Earth, Rockström et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43017-024-00597-z
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Assessing New Zealand’s climate change response with ClimateScanner, Controller and Auditor-General, Controller and Auditor-General of New Zealand
The authors provide a broad overview of government actions to respond to climate change and highlight areas for improvement. In many ways, New Zealand’s legislative, public accountability, and management structures are a strength of its response to climate change. In particular, New Zealand has a comprehensive legislative framework and institutional arrangements that provide a structure to develop policies and plans for setting and meeting emissions reduction targets and for identifying and responding to climate change risks. There are clear roles and responsibilities for public organizations to lead, coordinate, contribute to, and monitor the Government’s actions in response to climate change. There is also comprehensive and transparent reporting at a high level about the effectiveness of those actions and the progress being made. However, New Zealand did not rate as highly in other areas. For example, some parts of local government actively engage with the central government on climate change mitigation and adaptation through membership institutions Local Government New Zealand and Taituar? – Local Government Professionals Aotearoa. However,there is no formal mechanisms that would enable local and central government organizations to jointly create and implement policies related to climate change
Accelerating Offshore Wind: Developing a regional ecosystem monitoring programme for the UK offshore wind industry, Simon Cheeseman, ORE Catapult
One of the major challenges facing the offshore renewable energy industry is how to deliver the speed and extent of the dramatic increase in offshore wind deployment needed to meet the UK’s Net Zero targets. The author introduces an alternative monitoring approach for the offshore wind industry. There is a need to take advantage of innovative technologies to better understand the functioning of the UK marine ecosystems within which large-scale offshore wind deployment is situated. There needs to be a collaborative effort to enable a transformation in data gathering driven by a regional ecosystem-based monitoring programme (REMP) supported by new technologies that can be confidently incorporated into impact assessments and future monitoring plans. By implementing a regional monitoring programme, a more coherent and cohesive approach across multiple sites can deliver targeted monitoring that enables the cumulative effects to be more accurately assessed.
Facilitating Equity-Oriented Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Investments, Kasia Dahlbeck and Ted Lamm, UC Berkeley School of Law, Center ofr Law, Energy & the Environment
The emerging California and U.S. policy context provides an opportunity to design needed electric vehicle (EV) infrastructure plans in a manner that advances local economic prosperity and environmental justice. The authors present three strategies for local governments and community-based organizations seeking to design equity-oriented EV infrastructure investments, including community oversight councils, Community Benefits Agreements, and participatory budgeting processes. These measures are explored through multiple case studies and presented alongside additional tools for equity-oriented project design to inform local jurisdiction-scale electric vehicle supply equipment development.
Lighting the Path: Meeting North Carolina’s Coming Energy Needs, Lewis et al., The John Locke Foundation
The authors estimate how much energy infrastructure North Carolina would need to satisfy a recent state law requiring carbon neutrality by 2050. The authors propose two paths: a Renewable Scenario and a Nuclear Scenario. The new solar facilities needed under the Renewable Scenario would take up more land than the state’s 13 biggest cities combined and would require a whopping 12,500 miles of new transmission lines to be built out to them, the costs of which would be passed on to consumers. By contrast, the Nuclear Scenario would require only about 1,348 miles of new transmission lines (a 7 percent increase). Being that nuclear is highly reliable and vastly more efficient in land use, new nuclear generation would need less than half of the amount of land currently taken by intermittent solar facilities.
The Struggle for a Just Energy Transition in a Turbulent World Order, Osamah Alsayegh, Rice University’s Baker Institute for Public Policy
The endeavors toward a global just energy transition—ensuring the shift from high to near-zero emission energy system that reduces existing social inequalities and promotes inclusivity, poverty reduction, improved access to affordable energy and fairness—face multiple challenges of the present world-order dynamics. The economic pressures of inflation and debts on the global South, rising competition between the world's power rivals creating subsidized domestic clean technologies supply chains, and unsteady commitments of the world’s leading nations toward environmental commitments are the main obstacles slowing the progress of a global transition and poor governance and regulatory environments in many developing nations.
Linkages between WASH, climate change, food security and ecosystems / nature?based solutions, Lankford et al., WaterAid
Water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH), climate change, food security, and ecosystems are all deeply interconnected within a larger complex system. As the interlinked challenges of climate change, food security, and ecosystem sustainability become increasingly urgent, the role of WASH in fostering resilient communities and ecosystems cannot be overstated. The authors explore the linkages with and the impacts WASH has on three domains: climate resilience, food security, and healthy ecosystems including nature-based solutions).
Climate- and Environmentally Based Information Activities by PRC and Russian Media, Una Aleksandra B?rzi?a-?erenkova, and Tanya Lim, NATO Strategic Communication Center of Excellence
Russia and China have leveraged the 21st-century media landscape, including but not limited to PRC and Russian state-affiliated media outlets, to expose the global public to their strategic narratives, whether it is fostering anti-NATO sentiment or portraying themselves as climate champions. To safeguard the international information space in NATO nations and beyond, it is crucial to research, map, compare, and expose the climate and environment-related narratives propagated by PRC and Russian media. By understanding how these narratives are constructed and disseminated, we can better counter their influence and foster a more informed public.
Building Sustainable Futures: Advancing Climate Resilience in South Asia, Farwa Aamer, Asia Society
South Asia’s climate vulnerabilities are severely compromising the region’s socioeconomic stability. The impacts of climate change are particularly pronounced in the interlinked sectors of water, food, and energy — all of which are essential for economic and human development but increasingly strained by climate pressures. There is an urgent need to address these challenges with an integrated, systems-based approach as the region’s historical means of managing them in silos are no longer sustainable. To build resilience, South Asian countries must prioritize cross-sectoral collaboration, strengthen governance mechanisms, and develop institutions capable of managing these critical resources more effectively.
COP29 special report on climate change and health: Health is the argument for climate action, Issa et al., World Health Organization
WHO urges world leaders at COP29 to abandon the siloed approach to addressing climate change and health. It stresses the importance of positioning health at the core of all climate negotiations, strategies, policies, and action plans, to save lives and secure healthier futures for present and future generations. Developed by WHO in collaboration with over 100 organizations and 300 experts the report identifies critical policies across three integrated dimensions – people, place, and planet. The authors outline key actions aiming to protect all people, particularly the estimated 3.6 billion people who live in areas that are most susceptible to climate change.
Broad public concern about climate change in Israel crosses political lines, Yossi David and Avner Gross, at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev
An overwhelming majority of the Israeli public is concerned about climate change. Concern about climate change crosses political lines. 77% of the Israeli public is concerned about climate change; the difference between right-wing and left-wing voters is smaller than expected: 72% of right-wing voters and 89% of left-wing voters express concern about climate change. There is an understanding that the climate crisis is man-made. There is high trust in science and scientists (63%) compared to very low trust in social media (only 14%). There is a willingness to change behavioral habits for the sake of environmental protection (36% are willing to eat less meat, and 33% are willing to travel more by public transport).
Key dilemmas on future land use for agriculture, forestry and nature in the EU, Berkhout et al., Wageningen University & Research
The 2024 Mansholt Lecture focuses on the future use of land in agriculture, forestry, and nature. Current biomass demand for food, feed, and non-food is already high. Yet the use of biomass for food and feed is expected to stay at the current level, up until 2040. The need to transition away from the use of fossil fuels, however, will increase the use of biomass for chemicals and materials that are now produced from fossil feedstock. This led to the formulation of 5 important dilemmas for an EU dialogue, related to the future supply and demand for biomass and its implications for land use. Two of these dilemmas include climate and biodiversity targets: should a shared EU responsibility be tailored to each Member State and at what scale should food and non-food biomass production coexist with biodiversity and address climate targets?
Escalating Emergencies: 20 Years of Pacific Climate Disasters, Oxfam Australia
The number of people impacted by climate disasters in the Pacific increased by 700% on average in the last decade, compared to the previous decade. In a region numbering 14 million, climate disasters have affected 6.9 million Pacific Islanders in the last 20 years, not accounting for individuals and households who are affected by multiple disasters. Total costs from climate disasters have increased eightfold in the last decade. In the last two years, costs reached a high of $7.3 billion. The average GDP losses of Pacific countries are also increasing from decade to decade, with average yearly loss from climate disasters increasing four-fold—from 3.2% between 2004 to 2013, to 14.3% of GDP in the last decade. In the case of Vanuatu, these losses reached 80% of the country's GDP, a devastating occurrence that happened twice for the island nation—in 2015 and 2020. For context, Australia’s costliest disaster in recent memory (The QLD-NSW floods of 2022) resulted in damages that were 0.4% of GDP.
Climate India 2024: An Assessment of Extreme Weather Events, Kiran Pandey and Rajit Sengupta, Centre for Science and Environment
India faced extreme weather events on 93 percent of days in the first nine months of this year, marked by heat and cold waves, cyclones, lightning, heavy rain, floods, and landslides. These events claimed 3,238 lives, affected 3.2 million hectares of crops, destroyed 235,862 houses, and killed approximately 9,457 livestock. This reported damage is likely an underestimate due to incomplete data collection on event-specific losses, particularly public property, and crop damage
The Educator's Guide to Climate Emotions, Carolyn McGrath and Kate Schapira, Climate Psychology Alliance of North America
The climate crisis is profoundly impacting the emotional well-being of young people. While teaching about the causes, consequences, and responses to global warming, K-12 educators can create space for students to identify, understand, and express their feelings about living through a time of rapid environmental change. The authors offer suggestions for age-appropriate pedagogical approaches, cross-disciplinary teaching methods, as well as opportunities for collective action and collaboration. The guide highlights the transformative potential of incorporating emotions in climate education to foster a sense of agency, efficacy, and purpose among students.
The Teacher-Friendly Guide to Climate Change, Zabel et al, Paleontological Research Institution
The guide includes both the basics of climate change science and perspectives on teaching a subject that has become socially and politically polarized. The focus audience is high school Earth science and environmental science teachers, and it is written with an eye toward the kind of information and graphics that a secondary school teacher might need in the classroom.
Ecological Threat Report 2024, The Institute for Economics & Peace
Ecological threats, including climate change, food insecurity, and water scarcity, are increasingly recognized as significant factors that affect the dynamics of armed conflict. The authors survey current ecological risk levels. It takes an in-depth look at the impact of water scarcity and analyses the potential of improving water capture to mitigate multiple ecological threats in some of the world’s worst-affected areas. Countries with higher levels of ecological threat are more likely to have higher levels of conflict and lower levels of societal safety and security. Without concerted international action, ecological degradation will continue to accelerate, intensifying a range of social issues, including malnutrition and forced migration. When combined with further stressors, such as demographic pressure and poor governance, the likely result will be an increase in conflict.
Trump’s proposed clean energy retreat: US costs and global rewards, Bentley Allan and Tim SaHay, Johns Hopkins University's Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab
The Biden Administration’s investments in climate leadership across the CHIPS Act, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) have shifted the landscape of US and global clean energy supply chains. The IRA has created over $200 billion in clean energy investment inside the United States. CHIPS and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law created new government offices to support scientific and technological development. This kind of action is badly needed for the US to compete with China and regain a position in emerging clean energy supply chains. The US election results —a likely trifecta with a Trump administration, a Republican-held Senate, and a Republican-held House—point towards increased trade protectionism, removal of environmental regulations, and fossil fuel handouts. Yet the irony today is that a repeal of the climate portions of IRA, BIL, and CHIPS would harm the United States and create tens of billions of dollars in opportunities for other countries. These laws give the US a foothold in the clean technology race.
State of the Cryosphere 2024 – Lost Ice, Global Damage, International Cryosphere Climate Initiative
Current Nationally Determined Contributions are not sufficient to prevent significant overshoot of 1.5°C, with many governments delaying meaningful mitigation to 2040, 2050, or beyond. While perceived short-term as economically advantageous, for example lowering energy costs today, a slower transition from fossil fuels locks in widespread future loss and damage from the cryosphere for decades and centuries, with adaptation needs far higher and more expensive where still technically feasible.
NGFS long-term scenarios for central banks and supervisors, Network for Greening the Financial System
The authors explore the transition and physical effects of climate change, over a long time horizon and under varying assumptions using scenarios with an updated assessment of physical risk. The scenarios have been updated with new economic and climate data, policy commitments, and model versions. The scenarios now incorporate the latest GDP and population projections of the IPCC’s Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). In addition, they include the most recent country-level climate commitments as of March 2024. The main results of the scenarios include limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels in an orderly fashion is within reach but it requires substantially more intensive efforts than delineated in previous vintages; a substantial economic transformation affecting all sectors of the economy is required to achieve global net zero CO2 emissions by 2050; in all scenarios, the impact of physical risk rapidly outweighs the impact of transition efforts. The expected economic impact of unabated climate change has significantly increased. Due to the implementation of the new damage function, the projected physical risk impact has quadrupled by 2050 in some scenarios. These strong negative impacts on GDP could be mitigated by timely transition efforts.
Extreme Weather, Extreme Content: How Big Tech Enables Climate Disinformation In a World on the Brink, Climate Action Against Disinformation
The authors present three new case studies that provide a snapshot into the online world of English-language climate disinformation. The key findings from the report include opposition to renewables—despite having years to clean up their platforms, Big Tech continues to allow a small number of “super-spreaders” to pollute their platforms with debunked claims attacking renewable energy and electric vehicles; weaponizing wildfires-disinformation operations are exploiting extreme weather events to fuel opposition to climate policies, and recently, have led to threats of violence against emergency response personnel; and fossil fuel advertising on Meta-fossil fuel companies continue to use digital advertising to launder their image.
Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions
We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light" but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance.
- Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.
- Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
- The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway.
How is New Research assembled?
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.
The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
- Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically.
- Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.
A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."
The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.
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