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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 61351 to 61400:

  1. Peter Hadfield Letter to Chris Monckton
    Um so Watts can understand His Lordship's British accent, but not Peter Hadfield's British accent? Extraordinary! And strikingly convenient. Throw in a little guilt-by-association, and a handy strawman about 'obsession', and you can wander away from the scene while whistling just a little too loudly in the dark, all the while waiting for something shiny to turn up and distract the troops from the whole sorry mess. As it will. Inevitable conclusion: Monckton cannot answer Hadfield. And Watts knows it. But on the whole their audience doesn't care, because they'd rather believe - it's what they're good at - whether it be in faked birth certificates, global Communist conspiracies, or English aristocrats who are smarter than the entire trained scientific establishment, don'tchaknow?
  2. Sapient Fridge at 20:10 PM on 25 March 2012
    Peter Hadfield Letter to Chris Monckton
    caerbannog, doesn't sound like a good event to express opposing opinions. I assume you kept your mouth firmly shut on the night? ;-) Looks like Monckton's doing a runner and isn't going to reply to potholer54's points. This post (24/03/12 8:13am) from Anthony Watts seems to indicate that he wants to end this embarrasing debate early, without needing any reply from his Lord: REPLY: While I can’t hear what Hadfield is saying (he sounds like a British mumble to me) they seem totally infatuated with their manhunt, so much for Hadfield’s repeated claims of being “dispassionate and logical”. Thanks for posting this. When he starts colluding with that hateful “greenman”, all semblance of rational debate is destroyed. This video then cements my decision not to provide any further space to Hadfield here. – Anthony
  3. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    A few days ago (sorry, I can't remember exactly when) I received a popup message when I visited SKS. It was a standard Windows prompt for me to log on. I chose to ignore the message, closed the window and found that I was already logged on. I don't know sufficient about computers to say whether this could be relevant to what has happened, but it has certainly never happened before or since. Paul
  4. Peter Hadfield Letter to Chris Monckton
    OK folks, I took one for the team and went to see Monckton do his thing. Drove up to the USD campus (where Monckton was speaking), parked the car and started looking around for the auditorium -- when I spotted a parked car with a "Show Us Your Birth Certificate" bumper-sticker, I knew that I was close. Saw some other (ahem) "interesting" bumper-stickers, including a variation on the ecumenical "Coexist" bumper-sticker. But instead of being spelled out with various religious symbols in an inclusive manner, the "Coexist" letters were formed from various types of automatic weapons. Well, when I got to the auditorium, I very quickly found myself in a parallel (no, make that *orthogonal*) universe. There might have been as many 500 people there (300-seat auditorium and a big overflow room) -- can't say exactly, but there were way more people than could fit into the auditorium. The event was MC'd by California GOP assemblyman Brian Jones, and he was not shy about serving up plenty of full-strength Koolaid. There were references to the UN, "Agenda 21", evil, lying scientists, etc. etc... The global conspiracy against America is truly far-reaching, nebulous, and ill-defined. Based on the reactions to the MC's dog-whistling, it didn't take me very long to realize that many of the people sitting around me were completely unhinged -- we are talking tinfoil-hatville to the max. Monckton served up plenty of "red meat" during his presentation -- he did not hesitate to dish out hate and bile directed at the scientific community -- he singled out Naomi Oreskes for special attention, referring to her as "that monstrous woman", and then he said something along the lines of "We in the UK are working to decertify the University of California as a legitimate academic institution". This California crowd then erupted into loud applause. I knew that the tea-party types are a bit "off", shall we say -- but the paranoia and conspiracy-mongering were even more than what I was expecting. It's really a bit more than spooky, when I come to think of it. When I was a kid, people like these would be seen handing out leaflets at airports -- now, they call the shots in a major US political party. And as for Potholer54, all I can say is that as much as I appreciate his efforts and love his videos, Monckton has tapped into such a lucrative "mother lode" of American loonery that he can simply ignore the good Potholer. Any refutation of Monckton's claims, no matter how well documented and presented, will simply be folded into the right-wing paranoid conspiracy narrative. From what I saw tonight, I would have to say that most of the people who attended the Monckton show are very unlikely to be moved by appeals to evidence and logic.
  5. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    Jeez - what a weekend. Friday afternoon we find out what has happened and start investigating. By Friday night frantically changing passwords all over the place and manage to knock coffee over keyboard in process, and Saturday get a new keyboard and return to discover the whole town's telecoms are down - broadband, cashpoints, the lot. This morning by contrast seems a bit more normal! So I can now catch-up: it's good to read that Watts, despite our frequent differences, has vetoed spreading what is basically a stack of personal data further. The climate debate can be a street-fight at times, but perhaps we should all reflect that vigorous disagreement is one thing, but a line should be drawn as to what constitutes fair play. Things like this go well beyond that.
  6. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    Oh, and here's a quote from Bishop Hill (Montford) himself on the thread below the leak story, attacking the one person brave enough to defend SKS on the thread: "Hengist, If your contributions were less dishonest I think people would be more inclined to be civil to you." Mar 24, 2012 at 7:54 PM | Bishop Hill Montford's defending the vitriolic attacks other posters have made against Hengist. Compare that to how SKS responded to criticisms of Antony Watts on this thread. How people treat their opponents is often more telling of their character than how they treat their friends... http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2012/3/24/behind-the-scenes-at-skeptical-science.html
  7. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    Clearly Anthony Watts is a far better man than Montford. Who knew?
  8. actually thoughtful at 17:07 PM on 25 March 2012
    Roy Spencer's Bad Economics
    dunc461 - it seems you are in the mode of "knowing the price of everything and the value of nothing" - in the real world, it is cheaper to use renewable energy than it is to use fossil fuel, when all variables are included. That will not change based on the number of people on the planet. That will not change based on the energy density of the economy. Buildings take ~40% of our annual energy usage, yet we know how to make zero energy buildings. Over the life of the building, the savings of not paying utilities greatly exceeds the initial cost of conservation and renewable energy. Therefore the cost of mitigation is negative for buildings (ie you save money, so there is no cost. There is a savings). This comes from the real world, from experience, from the evidence of reality. If your spreadsheet does not report this result, please adjust accordingly. And you state many times no nuclear. This is an assumption that the Chinese, for one, are invalidating right now. Again, your spreadsheet needs adjustment. The task of avoiding the worst of global warming is mainly the task of ending coal now, and switching off of oil over the next 20-30 years. If you think Americans won't figure out how to do that and make/save money, you are not a student of history. I suspect clever people in other countries will also contribute. The idea that getting off of fossil fuels is a cost is an assumption. An assumption that is not born out by reality. It is a savings.
  9. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    > If John wants to set up a fund +1 J Bowers
  10. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    I also suggest going over to Bishop Hill to give Montford some stick for linking to the file via Tom Nelson. If John wants to set up a fund to hire someone or a service to try and trace the hacker, I'll gladly contribute. Via a secure server, mind ;) Hey, you never know where it'll lead to.
  11. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    Changed password, notified FB-friends, in case someone has voyeristic tendencies and wants to compromise their computers by meddling with the cracked file.
  12. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    I suggest everyone change their IP address. You may need to contact your ISP if you have a static IP or a long lease IP. Best to err on the side of caution, IMHO. How To Change Your IP Address
  13. Peter Hadfield Letter to Chris Monckton
    To be fair, His Lordship has been extremely distracted by issues of enormous moment, busy as he is with Sheriff Joe Arpaio to establishing that... wait for it!... Obama's birth certificate is a fake! Seriously. Now, anyone prepared to download a trial of Adobe Illustrator, or who has it already on their computer, and who has a scanner with OCR software (also download-and-trial-able) can quite innocently replicate the damning 'separate layers' (actually separate groups on a single layer) in a scanned PDF of a document that this high-profile posse claims proves conclusively 'this thing has been fabricated'. Simply find a printed document with text placed over a graphic background of some variety, and then let the software - I used ABBYY FineReader - scan it to a PDF. Open this in Illustrator, and notice how it has all the separable bits and bobs in a number of groups - just like the Birth Certificate does! Not the world's greatest scanning practice, perhaps, but a pretty-damn-good refutation of their argument, I'd have thought. It would appear to me that some people just forgot to be skeptical! ;-) ...
  14. Peter Hadfield Letter to Chris Monckton
    He is not a journalist, not a scientist, and not much of a lecturer. Monckton is an entertainer.
  15. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    arch @#64 - Indeed - the sound you're not hearing is me holding my breath!
  16. Peter Hadfield Letter to Chris Monckton
    Apparently, according to Anthony, there is no further need for his Sublimely Scented Excellency to further debase himself and address the impertinent Hadfield any further, as Hadfield has now contaminated himself by association with an untouchable, greenman3610: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/03/23/moncktons-slide-presentation-to-the-california-assembly/ See comment and response at 8.13 a.m., March 24.
  17. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    How do I unregister at SkS? See my comment #59.
  18. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    I am also getting the "That username has already been taken" message
  19. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    Dana @43, Yes, we agree. In case I wasn’t clear I think the other emotions are all valid too. Bill@57 – You mean there’s nothing at all about how Katniss has been lied to and manipulated for purely political reasons by SkS? I guess that will come out in one of the later installments. ;)
  20. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    A bigger concern could be over the viruses, trojans, worms and stolen passwords that silently do damage. The nefarious payload that does blatant damage does us a favor by its reveal... I fear the invisible attack that acts as a relentless parasite. Personally, for my comments here...I could say that now I have an excuse for all the blunderingly stupid things I have said. But thanks for all that you do. Fail gracefully and try to make new mistakes.
  21. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    I do not know if it is a coincidence but I sure have had a lot of Comet Cursor problems in the last few days
  22. Stauning and Friis-Christensen on Solar Cycle Length and Global Warming
    Aha: clearly a new case of divergence.
  23. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    John Russel@45 We can only hope that some of the facts sink in but the contrarians do not have a very good track record with regard to reading comprehension.
  24. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    I suspect this is causing John some anxiety, but for my part, I would ask him to rest easy, mostly. I comment anonymously because I fear the irrational behavior of, I guess, irrational people. But I think only a small set of people commenting/posting here would actually receive personal attention, and I do not think I am in that set of noteworthy people. I use different passwords depending on the nature of the material; ie, my password here is in the set of social media/I-don't-really-care passwords, which is distinct from my financial passwords, etc. So, even if the passwords are decrypted, I'm think I have little to loose. I work with databases and software; Andy Lee is giving good advice. My expertise is not in security or web hosting; his knowledge is beyond mine is this area, but my limited understanding jives with his advice. Kind of curious what is posted about me, but not so much that I want this site to post a link. If I had to guess, I would hazard that this is the work of a highly motivated, at least moderately skilled, but delusional person, and not the work of someone directly involved in the denial industry. I don't see what there is to gain for the professional deniers by hacking identities. Russian? Maybe, but I suspect whoever did it merely used a Russian site to post because of legal considerations. Honestly, what is to be gained by this hack? I suppose that it could be used to sway opinion (out of context or misunderstood quotes - same as climategate), but personal information does not change the laws of physics; so, I'm wondering what the hacker was hoping to achieve.
  25. Catching up with the Younger Dryas: do mass-extinctions always need impacts?
    Thanks for the update--I haven't read about the Younger Dryas since the early 1990s, very interesting to see the multiple sequels and theories.
  26. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    I tried to change my password but got the message that the name is already taken. I tried the 'forgotten password' route, entered my name and email address, and it said the password has been sent to an email address that isn't mine. What to do?
  27. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    What a bugger. I haven't noticed anything odd yet. I'm guessing mainly spam or unwanted blog visitors might happen, and can cope. Hard to see how it could be used on more sinister way.
  28. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    The charming Bishop Hill - how did I think to look there? - has provided a helpful link to one Tom Nelsons' blog, where Mr Nelson futher provides a link to the zipped trove of material and a few opportunities to blather on for the self-styled 'leaker'. But what's most interesting is the culled 'revelatory' material Nelson has kindly posted. Because there's a rather outstanding hole in it where anything even resembling a 'smoking gun' might be. How I laughed when I realised that the best they could come up with was -
    To achieve this goal, we mustn't fall into the trap of spending too much time on analysis and too little time on promotion.
    With the description of what this goal actually is conveniently omitted from their cherrypick lest it might turn out to be, oh, what, perhaps, increasing the audience for the website? For sound AGW science generally? Something equally 'sinister'? Then follows a list of whole bunch of proposed - wait for it - outreach activities that I commend you all for undertaking. It's a genuine pity about what promises to be a rather interesting paper's probable chances at Science given this untimely revelation of its submission. Other than that this really says most about is the truly grubby arm of Denial and the pathetic lengths to which they are prepared to go.
  29. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    This is too bad. In November 2010- Thanksgiving Day- someone hacked me- HD crashed. Same Thing Christmas Eve 2011. I have total protection from McAfee-stuff still can get through. Recently my Google account was compromised- sent them a nasty note. My Boston Globe account was also hacked. It seems someone is out to get me/us. Lets face it we probably have enemies as climate 'crusaders'--- I successfully changed my email and password. Carry On.
  30. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    Nefarious activity can be easily spotted with login attempts from unusual ip addresses especially from vietnam, india, pakistan, brazil, africa and other countries where many users have no clue about safe surfing, and ISPs have no obligation to keep their networks clean. (This is my personal gripe, so I developed an adaptive firewall and track 1.5 million addresses over the last decade)
  31. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    In a roundabout way, this is recognition that SkS is a thorn in the side of the Denial Industry and deserves such attention.
  32. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    I get same error message as in 51 above -- no update button, just "send message". Also, when do the "forgot password" it comes back and says email sent to a bogus gmail account.
  33. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    Thanks for that joabbess. I've implemented all your suggestions but it still won't let me change my password; since I don't use this site's password for any other log in, perhaps it doesn't matter too much... ...still, it should be possible for me to change my psswd here!
  34. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    @John Cook I too got this message: "Your update wasn't completed because one or more errors occurred. Please resubmit after making the following changes: That username has already been taken." Unfortunately - or perhaps fortunately - the email address in my profile is no longer valid. So I cannot use the "forgotten password" option. I have, in the meantime, changed my password on the only other website I used it. But I would like to avoid the embarrassment of seeing inappropriate messages posted under my name. Any suggestions?
  35. It's not bad
    Apologies for the delay in replying, mohyla103, but I have been working on something else and have only just gotten around to reading the relevant paper myself. Having done so, I believe you are once more focussing on details which are not as black-and-white as you seem to believe. Firstly, the fact that the relevant figure is 49.1% (i.e. the average snow and glacier-melt contribution to the annual flow of Chenab) over a 10 year period, suggests that the contribution is likely to have been over 50% during certain of those years. In fact, one of the graphs in the paper (showing mean monthly flow characteristics) showed how great were the deviations in monthly flow during the summer months. Also, that 49.1% contribution is concentrated in the four (mainly summer) months of June to October, so certain of those yearly rates can easily be over 50% at times during summer. Combine that with the 51.1% contribution to the yearly flow from the summer months, not all of which, of course, is due to glacier-melt but more than 50% of which could quite easily be due to glacier-melt during certain summer months of certain of the years of the study. Finally, you haven't taken account of two of the other figures in that study which showed seasonal (if I remember the term correctly) and permanent snow covered areas during March and September - again if I have remembered the correct months. During March the maximum coverage was roughly 80% but during September that that had dropped to roughly 20%. I can't believe that the amount of snow-melt would be a huge proportion of total snow/glacier-melt runoff anyway, but as the summer progresses the contribution from snow-melt would get less and less while the glacier-melt would at least remain constant but would actually probably increase. (See this abstract for further information). This means that glacier-melt would become a very large percentage of total snow/glacier-melt runoff so that, again, during certain years and certain summer months, glacier-melt would be "as much as...50-60%..." (You can see more about snow-covered areas in this study from 2001. So, to me, you have not shown that in fact your "reading of the original sources was correct and it was Barnett who was confused and/or did not report data accurately in his paper". You have made an unfair accusation for which you have not been able to provide clear evidence - you have read some abstracts and one paper, and then considered that you know more than Barnett and can accuse him of 'confusion' and 'inaccurate data-reporting'. You wrote that "[c]learing up misunderstandings is a good thing, be they my own or ones in published papers". I believe the misunderstanding is yours and not that of experienced scientists or the peer-review system. And, Barnett was NOT wrong (as far as I can see) to cite this paper as evidence, and the peer-review process did not miss any errors which you believe you have discovered. You should withdraw the accusations you have made, including the following : Considering the same kind of wording and figures appear in the abstracts of the other 2 papers cited by Barnett for this claim, I strongly suspect he and the reviewers committed the same error there.
  36. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    I am glad John announced this, and a little curious just what "persona details" the hackers think they can get. As others have already speculated, emails have some value (they can be resold to spammers). But I am little more concerned if those "personal details" include passwords. Hackers could then use that to try to see if any users have used the same password somewhere else, for their login to a site with more interesting, e.g. financial data. Or it could be just an attack on the site for its position on AGW, which has made a lot of powerful enemies out of certain unscrupulous organizations and people. As for its being on a Russian site, there are two things we must not forget about today's post-Soviet Russia: 1) entire generations have been brought up to admire not civic leaders, not politicians, do-gooders or capitalists, but the Mafia and the Mafia-like structure of the KGB 2) there really are huge criminal networks of hackers taking advantage of loose law enforcement in Russia to run their hacking from there. This hacking is not the casual hacking of bored teenagers, it is very focused on criminal intents. Like Sphaerica says, we should change passwords and retire the one used on this site.
  37. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    Without naming names, the two guilty parties thus far who have (without pause) posted links to people's personal and private information that was obtained illegally by hacking, appear to be representative of a larger group of "skeptic" blogs and groups who have an agenda against climate scientists and science in general. It is unfortunate that some "skeptics", seemingly unable to make substantiated and scientifically based counter argument to the theory of AGW, are forced to engage and endorse criminal behaviour. To me these desperate and extreme efforts underscore the vacuity of their arguments and that this is absolutely no longer about the science (or scientific integrity) for most "skeptics" and those who deny the theory of AGW, but rather them pursuing an ideologically-driven agenda. Some might go so far as to say that the hacking of CRU and now SkS is tacit admission by the "skeptics" and those in denial about AGW are losing. Continually refuting the constant barrage of misinformation and deception from "skeptics" is tiresome (bit necessary) and it takes much more time and effort to refute a myth than "skeptics" spend fabricating them. The sheer volume of misinformation that is being disseminated by "skeptics" and contrarians is one of the reasons that SkS needs a team of volunteers. I have no doubt that this latest hack will only strengthen the resolve of John Cook and his team to continue standing up for the science and the pursuit of truth. Thanks everyone here for their kind words and support, and thanks to Anthony Watts for taking the high road.
  38. Catching up with the Younger Dryas: do mass-extinctions always need impacts?
    william aerosols are washed away quickly in the troposphere. If they end up in the stratosphere and above they'll stay there much longer. I can't give you the number right away, but sure it will be long enough for the feedbacks to kick in; and once the atmospheric and ocean circulation have changed and the planet cooled, it takes time to reverse the process.
  39. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    @chris #47 This worked for me. Maybe it can work for you too ? I used the "Forgot Password" option, and then got an email with the password in, and was able to login and then change my password via the Update Profile form :- http://www.skepticalscience.com/profile.php?a=updateprofileform You might want to refresh your browser cache before trying any of this.
  40. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    My Profile won't let change my password. It says: ---------------------------- Profile Update Error Your update wasn't completed because one or more errors occurred. Please resubmit after making the following changes: That username has already been taken ---------------------------- any suggestions?
  41. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    I am annoyed, but sadly not very surprised, that Skeptical Science has been hacked. The better you are, the higher profile target you become for those who disrespect climate change science, it seems. It continues to appall me that somebody with such excellent information technology skills should use them for such a worthless and destructive activity. It appears that sabotage is the last resort of those who are losing the academic argument, or who have the most to lose from the policy decided on the basis of climate change science, because of their stocks and share holdings in mining and energy.
  42. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    Password changed successfully. I do hope the denial crowd spend hours and hours trawling through every comment on SkS. You never know they might learn something!
  43. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    I also feel bad that this event has overshadowed Peter Hadfield's excellent Monckton debate video. Please everyone, don't forget about that post!
  44. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    arch stanton @41 - I personally view it as a compliment that the hacker felt SkS was important and influential enough to be worth hacking!
  45. Catching up with the Younger Dryas: do mass-extinctions always need impacts?
    Assuming, for the sake of the argument, that the younger Dryas was caused by an impact, what mechanism would have caused it to persist for nearly a thousand years. We are told that aerosols, if not constantly renewed, would pretty well disappear from the air in a few weeks. Meteorite dust should do the same. As for the lake burst theory, it seems very reasonable that this influx of fresh water would shut down the Gulf Stream but surly this water would have been mixed into the sea in a few years at the most. What kept the Gulf Stream shut down for a thousand years.
  46. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    Might be a good idea to send out an email to all members with a heading other than "skeptical science posts", as I tend to regard these emails as non-urgent, to be checked at leisure. It'd be good to send a message with a heading like "Skeptical science user details hacked" so that you catch everyone's attention quickly! I certainly won't be backing off, and very much doubt that anyone else will be either. I'm impressed by the display of integrity by Anthony Watts ... I only hope that perhaps he'll start to see just how low his "side" have sunk, and that perhaps he considers his position on other matters with similar care.
  47. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    Well, wasn’t that ethical of them. John and the rest of you here – after you are done feeling outraged, disgusted, violated and inconvenienced - you should take it as a complement IMO.
  48. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    'Breaching a security hole' is a delightful euphemism. Let's insist it be called what it is: This is theft, a crime in most places. Anyone receiving these stolen goods is just as criminal.
  49. Rob Honeycutt at 04:13 AM on 25 March 2012
    Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    I'm sure there are people pouring over the comments looking for the information that links SkS to Maurice Strong, the Rothchild's, Al Gore and other sources of massive funding. They're going to be sorely disappointed.
  50. Skeptical Science hacked, private user details publicly posted online
    Oh, good. I miss all the hate mail I used to get when Tim ball unsuccessfully sued me and my University for a million denier dollars. dan.johnson@Leth.ca

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