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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 63551 to 63600:

  1. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    YOGI - Note the log scale on the X axis in that graph. There is a CO2 absorption band around 4.5μm. [Source]
  2. 2nd law of thermodynamics contradicts greenhouse theory
    This is nonsense. There are no CO2 absorption bands at 6-7.5μm : http://ber.parawag.net/images/Atmospheric_Absorption_Bands.jpg
  3. Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
    "Do you know why Knutti and Hegerl 08 do not have that in their analysis (only LGM and Royer, Berner and Park 07 which is 420 million years of data). " Well watch this space, but one of the issues is simply getting good data. It is much easier to determine maximum extent of ice, say, from geomorphology than it is to determine what the minimum extent was. Building global data sets is a long, slow effort and uncertainties will always be greater than for LGM.
  4. Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
    Re: winter regain. The relevant question really is what does climate theory predict for ice cover and what is the observations? Do we expect rapid decline in sea ice are in winter with rising GHG gases? No. Do we expect summer ice decline? yes.
  5. Michael of Brisbane at 07:18 AM on 23 February 2012
    DenialGate - Infographic Illustrating the Heartland Denial Funding Machine
    Thanks Phillippe. I agree with you. (although I do think my point is valid)
  6. Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
    Post scriptum (31) : I must add that the CMIP5 (future AR5) simulations give nearly the same range for equilibrium climate sensitivity, as it can be checked for example on slide 8 of this MetOffice Andrews et al 2011 conference (2,0-4,6 K for results of 9 AOGCMs).
  7. Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
    On Meyers "Part 2) CO2-based warming will be amplified by feedback effects" Well, we can simply say that there is a consensus on that among the 23 independent models running for IPCC, as it can be seen on this page of AR4 2007 , with a 2,1-4,4 K range for equilibrium at 2xCO2. Scientists are free to formulate hypothesis about no-feedback ou negative-feedback response to GHG forcing, as Lindzen did with the Iris Effect. But they have to corroborate their hypothesis with observations and models. For the moment, there's nothing like that. I'm more skeptic about the robustness of "central estimate" for CS (3 K), it depends on the realism of models (for example, few in the AR4 had been coupled with carbon cycle models) and the details of these estimates will certainly change with time, for example with the new generation of Earth System Models.
  8. Monckton Misrepresents Specific Situations (Part 2)
    Moncton is more than a good debater; he's the classic definition of a demagogue. The 'argumentum ad populum' is a good example. Consensus in the AGW world means a consensus of evidence (AR4) that is strong enough for common sense to initiate a response. It isn't precautionary (just-in-case) - it's real. Climate Science & Opinion Moncton re-arranges the message to misrepresent that as opinion polls about AGW. He slides it into an argumentum fallacy presentation. Because there's so much attention to public opinion, no one notices his fallacy. Now he can launch the grenade that says its a product of their false groupthink opinion ...
  9. Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
    Eric (skeptic) - You appear to be (1) arguing for a low climate sensitivity by dismissing the applicability of paleo data (whether it comes from a warmer or colder climate). You are in addition (2) continuing to fail to acknowledge the modern observational data establishing climate sensitivity, or for that matter the models. You have (IMO) failed to support either aspect of your statements, or to present evidence that climate sensitivity is in fact lower than the ~3C/doubling estimated. I'm in agreement with Albatross. Could you please state clearly what portion of the OP critiquing Meyers assertions you feel is incorrect, and why? Because otherwise I fail to see your point.
  10. Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
    I fear the discussion about this opinion piece may be misdirected. We are seeing a disturbing trend were someone without any background in any of the disciplines of climate science is given a wide public forum to express opinions about a topic that affects everyone on our planet. The authors objective isn't to argue the data or the science but to dull the general public's response to the results and conclusions of the scientific community at large. To quote "Climate of Fear" (Nature doi:10.1038/464141a) - "Scientists must not be so naive as to assume that the data speak for themselves."
  11. Philippe Chantreau at 05:57 AM on 23 February 2012
    DenialGate - Infographic Illustrating the Heartland Denial Funding Machine
    Michael, whether or not it is valid, your point is of no interest whatsoever. You just like to be able to use the word so you can fabricate ominous sounding sentences with it. Whatever. I'm not going to waste any more time on this.
  12. Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
    Dikran, true. My arguments about sensitivity above are a separate issue since it doesn't matter how the CO2 gets there, it will have a particular, well-understood forcing whether coming quickly from modern emissions or from slow paleo temperature rises.
  13. Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
    "IPCC assumed that strong positive feedbacks dominated" Thanks for highlighting that, as that also jumped out at me when reading the piece. On the contrary, Meyer assumed that whoever told him that was correct, or falsely assumed that positive feedbacks are assumed. Reading the comments section of that article and then the follow-up article that references his previous one, it appears Meyer does not care to engage with critics or learn from mistakes.
  14. Dikran Marsupial at 05:17 AM on 23 February 2012
    Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
    Eric (skeptic) You are missing the point, which is that the amount of radiative forcing due to CO2 depends purely on the amount of CO2 that is actually in the atmosphere. We control the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, not the oceans, our fossil fuel emissions are large enough to overpower the natural envrionments ability to restore equilibrium. Even if the oceans continue to be a net carbon sink, atmospheric CO2 levels won't start to go down until we cut anthropogenic emissions rather drastically. Sadly it is highly likely that the oceans will saturate at some point (possibly quite soon), which will make the required cuts in emissions needed to reduce atmospheric CO2 even sharper. This is one of the very good reasons for doing something meaningful now; it will mean we have more room for manoever later.
  15. Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
    KR, yes, prior interglacials are much better comparisons than glacial to interglacial transitions because of the similarities of climate base state. Do you know why Knutti and Hegerl 08 do not have that in their analysis (only LGM and Royer, Berner and Park 07 which is 420 million years of data). Dikran, thanks for the reply. The paleo depiction above shows how a temperature rise is amplified by CO2, outgassing on short timescales and other sources on longer timescales. The red dashed line ("what will this give us?") is what we would nominally get by heating the oceans by 16K according to ref 5 here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry%27s_law Except we are only going to heat the oceans by 3C over the next few centuries so during that time the oceans will always be absorbing our extra CO2. Albatross, IMO the labels on the last figure above are not meaningful ("if this gave us this, what will this give us?"). My answer is it won't give us nearly what is implied by that figure because the oceans will absorb lots of our CO2. I either am wrong or right about that, but I am not trying to obfuscate.
  16. A mishmash of Monckton misrepresentation
    Adam, It is time to step up your game instead of all the superficial one line responses. You have been asked to go to specific threads to discuss your arguments rather than discussing them here. I noticed that since you first started posting, two very specific criticisms of Mockton have appeared on SkS. You have not posted there, and I guess that is because you know vague arguments are easier to defend than specific ones. You bring up Douglas as an example of a peer reviewed article that supports Mockton. In fact, it does not. See: Real Climate For one discussion. Or, better still, post to this specific thread: Skeptical Science You also write that it is only my "opinion" that the MWP was not global. No. That is the scientific consensus. That latest Mockton thread discusses just that: Skeptical Science If you really think our understanding of the MWP is wrong, if you are a true skeptic, you should post there with specifics. Simply dismissing my criticism as "opinion" isn't very skeptical at all.
  17. Monckton Misrepresents Specific Situations (Part 2)
    Yes Dana, we can see the page because we're authors. I'll make the change, thanks for the catch pbjamm.
  18. Republican Presidential Candidates vs. Climate Science
    Not that any more evidence of Rick Santorum's denial of Climate Science is needed but here is a new quote: “I refer to global warming as not climate science, but political science..."
  19. Ben Santer rewrote the 1995 IPCC report
    It is also worth looking at the original backing for Santer from his colleagues and others, in response to the original attack using this fallacy which came from Frederick Seitz all the way back in June 1996 - he could obviously see that Global Warming obfuscation was the next step after the tobacco one he'd previously been involved with. Amazing when you think how long these people have been attacking and misinforming, and yet they still haven't been able to come up with anything substantial - they just resurrect the same old zombies time and time again.
  20. Monckton Misrepresents Specific Situations (Part 2)
    dana1981@11 not quite fixed the link (2nd in OP) points to : http://www.skepticalscience.com/monckton-myth-17-denniss-debate.html should be : http://www.skepticalscience.com/monckton-myth-17-denniss-debate-part1.html
  21. DenialGate - Infographic Illustrating the Heartland Denial Funding Machine
    CraigR, the WWF and Greenpeace are world-wide organisations involved in a lot of other issues apart from Global Warming. You could find out the actual details by going to their websites : Best known as the world’s leading independent conservation body...[involved in] Conservation Tackling Climate Change Sustainability WWF UK - What we do We care about how all life on Earth shares our unique planet. WWF UK - About us OUR MISSION WWF’s mission is to stop the degradation of the planet’s natural environment, and to build a future in which humans live in harmony with nature by: • conserving the world’s biological diversity; • ensuring that the use of renewable natural resources is sustainable; • reducing pollution and wasteful consumption. Tackling Climate Change [they spent just over] £7.5million worldwide WWF UK - Financial Report 2011 Since our founding, we’ve invested nearly US$10 billion in more than 13,000 conservation projects in over 150 countries. And while our mission has developed over the years, it remains as clear as ever: “to stop the degradation of the planet’s natural environment and to build a future in which humans live in harmony with nature.” WWF International (It doesn't itemise Global Warming in this 2010 Report but you can see that most of their work is to do with Conservation) The underlying goal of all our work is a green and peaceful world - an earth that is ecologically healthy and able to nurture life in all its diversity. Greenpeace - Our vision We investigate, expose and confront environmental abuse by governments and corporations around the world. We champion environmentally responsible and socially just solutions, including scientific and technical innovation. Greenpeace - How we make change happen We do not accept funding from any political parties, governments or corporations. As ever, the great majority (95%) of our income came from individual supporters, who donated an average of €77 a year to Greenpeace. The remainder came from foundation funding. Climate & Energy €25,027,000 Greenpeace International - Annual Report 2010 Now, how does all that compare to a secretive Conservative group, working just in America, with an agenda to undermine science ?
  22. Monckton Misrepresents Specific Situations (Part 2)
    Monckton illustrates very well why the 'skeptics' are always calling for public debates, and why climate realists rarely participate. Public debates are 'won' by whoever can make the most convincing-sounding argument. It has little do to with who is actually right, or there would be no purpose for debate teams. Monckton clearly does not understand climate science, but he is an excellent debater. Thus he "wins" debates by convincing the audience he's right when all he's really doing is misinforming them by misrepresenting his sources. Apologies for any broken links in the article - they've now been fixed.
  23. Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
    Eric, This is classic obfuscation by you. This post is about Meyer's very misguided understanding of the science. What is your position on his claims? Could you please let us know specifically which of his claims you agree with or support and which ones that you do not agree with or support. And one can take it from there. Open-minded and informed climate scientists know very well that model reconstructions constrained by paleo data data from periods that were both warmer and cooler than today's current climate, including independent estimates based on data from the last 130 years or so also support a value near +3 C for a doubling of CO2. This is why people like Pielke and Lindzen avoid the paleo data like the plague because it completely undermines their claims of homeostasis and strong negative feedbacks. You continue to argue against a massive amount of very solid and robust science, multiple independent lines of evidence and last but not least basic physics.
  24. Dikran Marsupial at 02:14 AM on 23 February 2012
    Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
    Eric (sceptic) Thank you for clarification, I think I can now see the misunderstanding. The exchange of carbon between the oceans and atmosphere is principally governed by two factors, ocean temperature and the difference in partial pressure between the surface waters and the atmosphere. Thus the warming of the oceans that we are seeing is increasing the flux from the ocean to the atmosphere now just as it did in the paleoclimate record. However, due to anthropogenic emissions there is now an increasingly large difference in partial pressures between the atmosphere and surface waters, which pushes the fluxes in the other direction. The only difference between now and then is anthropogenic emissions, the oceans are acting according to the laws of physics in the same way now as they did then. Essentially the temperature driven outgassing is happening, it is just that it is being masked by the pressure differential driven uptake*. Unless you have an argument that climate sensitivity is different now than it was then, the effect of CO2 on global temperatures depends only on the atmospheric concentration, the details of how that came to be is irrelevant. * it isn't really correct to think of it as an uptake, it is more difficult for CO2 to move into the atmosphere the more CO2 it contains, and easier for CO2 to move into the surface waters the less CO2 it contains relative to the atmosphere. Thus it isn't purely uptake, but a change in the net flux.
  25. Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
    CBDunkerson - You have to be very careful about the pixie/leprechaun distinction: you can get in real trouble over that at the annual Mythic World Cup. The fans take such things quite seriously...
  26. Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
    KR wrote: "If you know any magical leprechauns who can zero that..." Hmmm, it looks like I was in error here. I incorrectly cited pixies, not leprechauns. I apologize for any confusion this may have caused.
  27. Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
    "Nothing in that chain depends on amount of CO2, only the changes. " I'm not sure what you mean by that. Are you saying the CO2 temp feedback does not depend on CO2 concentrations? I hope not, because that would be wrong. The changes are only relevant to the CO2 temp feedback because of their effect on CO2 concentrations.
  28. Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
    Eric (skeptic) - One of the more similar paleo periods would be the Eemian Period, with temperatures 1-2C higher than present. And sea levels 4-6 meters higher, I'll note. Perhaps that would be a better comparison in your eyes than glacial periods? We're likely to exceed the Eemian temperature change given the current path; in fact, I find it hard to believe we won't. You are of course correct, in that given different situations (such as extensive ice cover) there may well be differences in climate sensitivity to forcings. I will note, however, that all of the evidence (short term observations, paleo evidence, basic physics and modeling) points to roughly the same 3C sensitivity per 2xCO2: Hence I would consider claims that climate sensitivity would be (currently) low due to differences in conditions from some paleo situations to be extremely wishful thinking, and quite frankly contradicted by the available evidence. --- Side note - I do not see how you can claim that weather patterns are excluded from paleo or other measures of climate sensitivity - since they measure the total climate system response to a forcing.
  29. DenialGate - Infographic Illustrating the Heartland Denial Funding Machine
    Michael of Brisbane: "I totally agree that the Earth's Climate should not be an industry" Under your definition, that would mean there should not be any "economic activity" nor "a great deal of time or effort expended" nor any "hard work." Thus every human endeavor other than sitting and contemplating your navel is an 'industry.' So your statement is nonsensically over-generalized.
  30. Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
    KR, the answer to your #18 is that analysis of CO2 and TSI ignores forcing from weather pattern changes. An increase in convection globally, for example, will cause the GAT to be cooler, all other things being equal.
  31. Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
    Dikran the paleo record shows an amplification process, namely a rise in ocean temperature causing an offgassing of CO2 causing a temperature rise causing more offgassing and other positive feedbacks. Nothing in that chain depends on amount of CO2, only the changes. Bernard, the other forcings and feedbacks are modeled, thus the paleo evidence is the same as modern model-based evidence (not independent). KR, the albedo and dust feedbacks that are evident in the paleo chart above are not applicable to today's climate (e.g. see red squares)
  32. DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
    Ah, Muoncounter, your first point is well taken. It was almost sufficient to move me to tears of frustration. Fortunately that clip (which I'd not seen before) provided the antidote! I guess all we can do is to try as hard as ever to help shine the light into the dank dungeons of denialism and intellectual decay, and hope that there's a substantive shift in the balance before it's beyond repairing.
  33. Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
    Ken Lambert - CBDunkerson is quite correct here: even if the TOA imbalance were zeroed tomorrow, the time lag of various feedbacks such as ice, vegetative albedo, etc., will cause temperature to increase from present levels. I stand corrected on that. This is because the climate has not yet caught up with the current imbalance. Best estimates for the TOA imbalance are around 0.5 W/m^2, with a fairly strong likelyhood that it's only that low due to high aerosol levels (which won't last). If you know any magical leprechauns who can zero that, please call them in. Otherwise we will have to deal with the situation as it actually stands - and work on reducing GHG emissions to mitigate ongoing climate change.
  34. DenialGate - Infographic Illustrating the Heartland Denial Funding Machine
    Actually, Michael, Heartland is involved in the anti-science industry. They manufacture and distribute uncertainty within democracies, forcing people to rely more heavily on politicians, PR organizations, and/or traditional sources of authority. Climate science just happens to be one of their targets. Whenever science gets in the way of easy profit, organizations like Heartland are there. Out of one side of their mouths they'll spew a defense of the free market, and out of the other side they'll manipulate markets through campaigns of misinformation and doubt. This is, if all the forms of it are taken together, a huge industry. Companies used to grow their own market manipulation tools, but now there are hundreds of independent firms and organizations for hire. The difference between something like Greenpeace and Heartland is that Greenpeace, at least when it started, was out to prove a point: the Earth is a dynamic system, and if we treat it as a collection of disintegrated pieces of private property, we're going to whack the system. Big time. Heartland was started to create doubt where little actually existed (I'm not saying that no doubt existed/exists in climate science; I'm saying precisely "where little actually existed") in order to achieve economic and political goals. Finding the truth mattered/matters to Greenpeace. Finding the truth never mattered to Heartland. Encouraging the Heartlands of the world amounts to encouraging the death of science as an epistemology. In other words, no matter what you believe about climate science, supporting the social construction of knowledge through the scientific method is inconsistent with supporting Heartland.
  35. Monckton Misrepresents Specific Situations (Part 2)
    I almost think the best way to handle a Gish Galloper in a debate is not to try to refute all their lies, but rather 1: First explain to the audience that it takes much longer to refute a lie than tell one 2: Spend the rest of your time absolutely gutting one of the Galloper's lies, showing in detail not only how it false and misleading, but also the process by which the Galloper twisted it and his or her history of repeating the lie despite having been corrected on multiple occasions.
  36. Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
    To extend my last comment a bit - temperature response to forcings gives the total feedback, while other proxies or direct evidence (such as ice-core CO2 levels) helps break out various individual feedbacks such as CO2 response. Again, paleo evidence provides one of the most straightforward indications of total feedbacks to climate forcings, within the uncertainty range of the paleo records.
  37. Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
    Eric (skeptic) - "Third, the paleo argument ignores the other feedbacks: ice albedo, dust, water vapor etc which worked in tandem with the CO2 feedback." Actually, paleo evidence is a very strong indicator of total feedback - to the extent that we can clearly identify the forcing (such as Milankovitch cycles of insolation) the paleo record gives the total temperature change due to that forcing, and hence the sum of the forcings and all feedbacks.
  38. Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
    Eric (sceptic). What Dikran Marsupial said. What makes you think that calculations of contemporary forcing do not account for the various fluxes of CO2? And what makes you think that analyses of paleo- and contemporary warming do not account for other forcings and feedings-back? If you have referenced evidence I would be most keen to see it.
  39. Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
    So... your answer is nonsense and obfuscation? Got it. For the record, the "winter regain" of arctic sea ice also shows an ongoing decline. Not that this is particularly relevant given the general lack of sunlight (and thus comparative importance of albedo) in the Arctic in Winter.
  40. DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
    BernardJ: "I was hopeful that there must be some protection under US law that assures that the nation's children are not taught ... ideological claptrap." Nope. No such law exists. Want proof? See this thread. After that, you'll need a laugh. Look here.
  41. DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
    Muoncounter. The Kitzmiller v. Dover Area Board of Education case is certainly different from anything that is likely to happen with Heartland, in that the former was based on a contravention of the Establishment Clause in the First Amendment, but when I made my earlier comment I was hopeful that there must be some protection under US law that assures that the nation's children are not taught in science classes material that is explicitly recognised by the professional scientific community as pseudoscience, fantasy, outright untruth, or other forms of ideological claptrap. As I said, one may at least (naïvely?) hope so... Of course, it could be that an astute plaintiff attorney might make the case that subscribing to and promoting a model of the world that not only is based on no scientific or otherwise objective evidence, but that flies in the face of strong countering evidence, constitutes a faith system. In that case attempts to subvert the national government education program in order to teach such an ideology might well bring its proponents back to a Kitzmiller v. Dover Area Board of Education scenario... ;-)
  42. Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
    CBD #72 Reduction in albedo due to ice loss is probably not a good example. 90% of the planet's ice is in Antarctica. Losing mass does not directly relate to losing surface area if thickness changes but not disappears. Albedo is not just ice or snow reflection - clouds and aerosols are a big part. What we always hear about is summer Arctic sea ice melt, but never winter regain - nor the lower latitude white outs such as has happened in recent years across Eurpoe and North America where Albedo is enhanced for several weeks over larger areas than the Arctic. The Arctic above 66N is less than 7% of the planet's surface.
  43. Monckton Misrepresents Specific Situations (Part 2)
    Lloyd Flack @7, Good observation. To further support it, let's quote from Monckton's reply to SkS linked in the article: "Mr. John Cook (sic) [...] seems annoyed that I won the 2011 televised debate with Dr. Denniss of the Australia Institute, and has published a commentary on what I said" So, the discussion about the veracity of facts is just a minor aspect for him, "annoyance", while the main aspect is the fact that he "won" in advance, regardeless of underlying veracity. Clearly, in his mind, the winner can remake the history: he is experienced doing it as we've seen above. I've seen the video of debate with Dennis. Indeed, to the layman unaware of climate science and economics, and unwilling/unable to check the facts, Moncton looked much better on the merrit of his excellent presentation skills. That's why such laymans do follow him. This is very evil attitude and it's dangerous if left without debunking. People in the past have made the mistakes of letting such attidude go. In case of Monckton, already a large part of Congress have fallen victim of such attitude by in viting him to testify. Hopefuly no more of that.
  44. Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
    A layman question (from recent posts 63-72) : when a volume of ice melt (typically arctic sea-ice), it consumes energy but the phase transition from solid to liquid also changes the radiative property of the surface, with far less albedo in the new state of the system. How do you count (in energy balance from state S0 with ice to state S1 without ice) this radiative effect, quite different from sensible/latent heat distribution?
  45. Monckton Misrepresents Specific Situations (Part 2)
    Monckton is so convincing, and so wrong. We are not trained to deal with someone who knows enough to lie convincingly, and then does so with great authority. I'm reminded of Julius Sumner Miller, who would ask a rhetorical question, and then if an audience member was dumb enough to attempt to answer, Julius would "correct" them with his enthusiastic "rigour". But he'd "correct" them, even if they were right... Of course, if you challenge Monckton later, and persist (as Peter Hadfield aka potholer54 has), he backs down. But its too late then, as the show is over, the theatre is dark and everyone has gone home.
  46. Dikran Marsupial at 23:56 PM on 22 February 2012
    Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
    Eric (skeptic) I don't see how you have come to the conclusion in your first paragraph. The warming we should expect to see depends on the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, not the magnitude or direction of fluxes that result in it being there. Unless climate sensitivity has changed, the similar amounts of CO2 radiative forcing will have similar effects on the climate. Please can you clarify.
  47. Search For 'Missing Heat' Confirms More Global Warming 'In The Pipeline'
    #40 Rob : I agree with your points about the interannual variability of total forcing and, of course, the possibility of a decreasing (less positive) imbalance because of fossil depletion, either by natural constraint or by political choice. On the very same thematic, I think you should discuss on SkS the last Douglass and Knox paper . There are for me some interrogations: Why did they choose 0-700 m rather than 0-2000m? What is the importance of XBT / MBT / OSD / CDT instruments in the Levitus 2010 base they used? To which extent their "climate shifts" is nothing but the natural variability for very short term energy balance? Etc.
  48. Uncertainty Is Not the Basis for Investment
    This post demonstrates some misconceptions about the applicability of the paleo record ("if this gave us this, what will this give us?") In the paleo chart arming oceans were a net source of CO2 which provided positive feedback to the warming ("cyclical warming gave us CO2 which gave us more warming"). Currently oceans are a net sink. Due to that fact alone, the current rise will give us a lot less warming than the depicted paleo CO2 rise did. Second, the argument given above ignores numerous non GHG forcing factors as outlined in The Last Interglacial Part Two - Why was it so warm? Third, the paleo argument ignores the other feedbacks: ice albedo, dust, water vapor etc which worked in tandem with the CO2 feedback.
  49. Monckton Misrepresents Specific Situations (Part 2)
    Joe, it is not that Monkton lacks the intelligence to understand climate, it is that he does not try to understand. He tries to win and that prevents him understanding. He wants to believe that it is not happening and looks for evidence to support his preferred beliefs. There could be an element of game playing and trying to prove how smart he is too.
  50. Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
    Ken, I'm trying to follow your logic and just can't see how you get from A to B; "If the imbalance zeroed tomorrow the energy absorbed to then would appear in the system somewhere. Global temperature rise would also stop tomorrow." If the energy absorbed remains then it is gradually going to get spread around the system... which means that it will result in a net loss of ice (i.e. "ice melt... will absorb some of the heat")... which means that the planet's albedo will change... which means that there will be an additional ongoing forcing... which means that global temperature rise will not "stop tomorrow". The only way for that to happen would be for your hypothetical magical pixie dust solution to eliminate the ongoing energy imbalance and extract sufficient energy such that global ice cover (and other long term feedbacks) would remain constant rather than continue responding to the energy built up in the system. All of which is rather moot given the general lack of magical pixie dust of a non-hypothetical variety.

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