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Glenn Tamblyn at 15:48 PM on 17 February 2012Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
owl905 Yes, changes in ocean circulation might buy us time. However there is enough uncertainty around how circulation patterns might change in future that we can't count on that. So maybe it buys us time for adaptation. If adaptation is going to be enough, ultimately. Unfortunately it can also provide a pretext for slowing action to reduce CO2 emissions, leaving us more dependent on adaptation down the track. Personal view is that adaptation can only achieve adequate results if we are on a low warming trajectory. If we continue on the current high warming trajectory then the primary adaptation strategy we will use, willingly or otherwise, is mass, violent population decline. And no adaptation strategy will slow the impacts of Ocean Acidification as CO2 climbs. Personally I hope that the model results reported by Meehl are right and that this Hiatus ends soon. Only when we see more serious warming will the dam of Denial break. Humanity can alter our energy systems rapidly if we are sufficiently motivated. But that motivation is esentially an emergency war-time like mobilisation. We won't do that if most people can treat AGW as a problem to worry about later. Mother Nature really hasn't done us any favours in the last decade. -
Glenn Tamblyn at 15:39 PM on 17 February 2012Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
I am staying completely out of any Trans-Atlantic Grammatical Wars, to bloody for this delicate soul. Let me know which you want and I will change it. Other changes fixed -
Glenn Tamblyn at 15:37 PM on 17 February 2012Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
tonydunc "couldn't it be argued that the huge time lag in deep ocean cycling could be responsible for temperature changes from decades or centuries ago?" Yes it could certainly be argued that if the total heat of the entire system wasn't rising. In a sense that is the basis of the whole 'we are recovering from the Little Ice Age' meme. If the atmosphere had cooled during the little Ice Age then the return of heat from the oceans would then explain surface warming. But the total system heat would not be increasing. And with the huge difference in heat capacity between the atmosphere and the oceans, it is hard to understand why such a 'recovery' is so slow. The extra heat that has shown up in the 0-2000 metre data in about 1/2 a decade is enough to warm the entire atmosphere by about 2 Deg C every year. "EG. arguing that ocean rifts are not adequately studied to determine Anthropocentric CO2 emissions. And I forget the actual argument, but something about how the CO13 to CO14 ratio is no proof of anthropocentric CO2 increase." There are two different arguments here. One suggests extra heat coming from ocean rifts etc. However total heat from within the Earth is only about 0.1 Watts/M^2 compared to the Forcing from a doubling of CO2 of 3.7 Watts/M^2. And it is incredibly hard to come up with a geological reason why the flux of geothermal heat would fluctuate on anything but geological time scales. The other half of this is subsea sources of CO2, perhaps suggesting the rise in CO2 isn't due to us. There are a number of arguments against this. 1st. The C12/C13 argument is very simple. Natural carbon ratios are 99% C12/1% C13. The only places where this isn't true is anything derived from plants - since the photosynthesis mechanism used by most plants preferentially absorbs C12, anything plant derived is C13 depleted. So, Plants, Soils, Animals, and Fossil Fuels. So if the extra CO2 in the atmosphere is coming from subsea vents, it wouldn't be C13 depleted. So it wouldn't change CC12/C13 ratios in the atmosphere in the ways we have observed. 2nd, the subsea vent argument has to explain where the CO2 humanity has emitted has gone. And if our CO2 can be totally absorbed into 'something' why isn't the CO2 being similarly absorbed. The only plausible answer to that is that CO2 from the sea floor massively exceeds humanities cumulative emissions. 3rd. If so much is being released on the sea floor, how does it reach the surface? If it rises to the surface as bubbles, where is all this 'schwepervesence', where are the bubbles that no sailor has ever reported. If it is dissolving in the ocean then it must reach the surface via the ocean overturning circulation, which requires centuries. So what are the odds that centuries ago, before the start of the Industrial Revolution, venting on the sea floor started releasing huge amounts of CO2 that would arrive at the surface just in time to look like it was our emissions while our emissions have mysteriously vanished. And if it were dissolving down there in such quantities the Carbonate Chemistry & Ph of the deep waters would show characteristics of that. And they don't. "SO how much do we know about heat exchange for the entire oceans? Or do we not need to know that because we can determine the rate of change, and that is enough?" We don't know everything about heat exchange in the ocean, but we know a lot. We know how fast heat diffuses in still water. We have mapped the major ocean currents, including their speed and the volumes of water moving, we have mapped salinity distributions. And we have the ability to measure temperatures, and thus heat content in detail for half the oceans volume and to a much lower resolution for the other half. As for what we need to know to know enough. Being able to measure heat content for the top half of the ocean and estimate whether the lower half s changing much is enough to do an energy balance. If the rate of total heat rise is continuing much as we expect we have a pretty good handle on what is happening. But more detailed studies such as Meehl help us understand more about the mechanisms. Understanding Ocean warming is important to our projections of future warming. Less about how much the whole system will warm eventually, but more about the journey to that final state. Will it be a steady rise in surface temps, or alternating periods of high warming and hiatus. This all depends on how the oceans flip-flop about a little. But this doesn't effect much what the final result will be. -
Doug Hutcheson at 15:16 PM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
Eric, @207, thanks for the quick response confirming my worst fears. Mr. Morano certainly has dirt on his hands. It makes the H.I. hand-wringing about left-wing nutters even more hypocritical, if that were possible. Let's all treat the Strategy document as tainted and just use the legitimate documents as a stick to beat them with. Do I have any qualms about using information that may have been dishonestly acquired? Yes, to exactly the same extent that H.I. have qualms about misrepresenting the stolen UEA emails, conspiring to distort the teaching of science in schools, or supporting intemperate activists such as Mr. Morano. -
muoncounter at 14:47 PM on 17 February 2012NASA scientists expect more rapid global warming in the very near future (part 2)
Same story, this time from Lawrence Livermore Labs: Extreme summer temperatures occur more frequently ... previously rare high summertime (June, July and August) temperatures are already occurring more frequently in some regions of the 48 contiguous United States. ... What was historically a one in 20-year occurrence will occur with at least a 70 percent chance every year. This work shows an example of how climate change can affect weather extremes, as well as averages. --emphasis added Appears in Climatic Change. -
Glenn Tamblyn at 14:41 PM on 17 February 2012Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
The Oceans are a complex mix of forces. If we were dealing with a simple body of water heated from above convection would tend to push heat towards the surface but conduction, a much smaller factor would tend to push heat down. Then add that the oceans are salty and very deep and you can have salinity effects that counter the convection. During the early 1980's I was involved in a project devloping Solar Ponds. Large deep pools of water that were heavily salted to produce stratified layers of differing density that could counter the circulation due to thermal buoyancy. The result was a pool that reached 80-90C at the bottom from solar energy from above - we had to put up safety fencing and warning signs. The project failed because we couldn't maintain the stability of the salinity gradient. But it showed clearly how salinity/density effects can counter thermal convective forces. Then in the oceans add Coriolis Forces, the pumping effect of the Thermo-Haline circulation that drives the main ocean surface and bottom currents, and the shape of the sea floor and continents and you have a very complex system fo circulation patterns, that are certainly strong enough to overwhelm simple thermal convection towards the surface in some regions of the ocean, as shown in Meehl et al. But this isn't uniform across the oceans. In other regions where currents & gyres don't operate, the ocean can be strongly stratified. The most dramatic demonstration of this was during the 1950's, during the era of atomic testing. The USA tested a 'Depth Bomb', a nuclear Depth Charge - One explosion, guaranteed destruction of an enemy submarine. Several months after the test a research vessel returned to the area and took water samples, exploring how far the blast products had spread. They had horizontally over around 100 sq Kilometers. But the real surprise was vertical spread - to the best estimates they could make with the instruments they had, the blast products had only spread vertically in a laey 1 metre thick! After an nuclear blast, for stratification to re-establish so strongly shows how strong the forces driving vertical stratification are in the absence of other forces. What all this tells us is that transfer of anything in the oceans - heat, dissolved gases etc is a complex mixture major flows alongs the oceans 'highways', and virtually no flow outside the 'highways'. If the highways change their behaviour then significant changes in heat storage patterns are entirely possible. And this is why the simple argument often used by skeptics that 'heated water rises!' is wrong. -
Tom Curtis at 14:27 PM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
Sphaerica @208, in Australia, and I presume in the US, knowingly making false statements with the purpose of obtaining money is fraud, and a criminal offense. Joseph Bast has purportedly written to his donors:"We have reported the identity theft and computer fraud to the police and to the FBI. We are asking the bloggers and reporters to immediately remove these documents and all statements about them from the blogs, Web sites, and publications, and to publish retractions. But we aren't holding our breath. The individuals who have commented so far on these documents did not wait for Heartland to confirm or deny the authenticity of the documents. We believe their actions constitute civil and possibly criminal offenses for which we can pursue charges and collect payment for damages, including damages to our reputation. Litigation is expensive, and it surely wasn't in our budget for 2012. But we don¹t think the criminals who did this ought to be allowed to skate away without penalty. We are creating a legal defense fund to support litigation, starting immediately, to demand that false and defamatory material be removed from blogs and Web sites and publications, and that the true criminals in this case be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. Can you make a charitable contribution to our legal defense fund? You would be helping us defend ourselves against a cowardly and criminal attack. You would also help us take down a notch some of the left-wing activists and their friends who so plainly crossed the line this time."
That is clearly a request for money, and the basis of that request includes the claim that he has taken the matter to police and FBI. If he has in fact not taken the matter to police and FBI, then a conviction for fraud will be hard to avoid. Assuming that he is not terminally stupid, it therefore, follows that Bast has indeed reported an incident of alleged "identity theft and computer fraud" to police and the FBI. In Australia,and presumably in the US, knowingly and falsely alleging a crime to police where none has been committed is also a criminal offense. Therefore again, excluding terminal stupidity, that indicates that Bast has not only reported an incident of alleged "identity theft and computer fraud" to police and the FBI, but he believes that identity theft and computer fraud to have occurred. Given that he believes that and is in a reasonable position to know (as we are not), the presumption must be that that is what occurred. Now it may be that Bast is wrong. For example, it may be that the person Bast sort information on in the issue is in fact the the person who sent the documents to desmogblog as an act of whistle blowing, and have falsely represented the case in order to cover their tracks. But that is a big assumption to make on a "maybe", and should not be the basis of our actions. What is more, if that is the case, it will undoubtedly emerge as the result of the police and/or FBI investigation. In that case we can revise our opinions when that emerges. In the meantime we lose nothing by assuming that the documents (excluding the 990 form) where obtained by criminal activity, and that the strategy document is a fraud. -
actually thoughtful at 14:15 PM on 17 February 2012Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
Owl905 - Please no! Lose means to reduce in quantity or not know where it is. Loose means not fitting well. The loose use of lose should not be codified - it should be banned. -
Lloyd Flack at 14:04 PM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
Sphaerica @ 208, Tim's main argument is that making a knowingly false complaint to the police would be stupid. If they have made such a complaint then their story is probably true. Could they have lied to donors about making such a complaint. Again, unlikely. -
Bob Lacatena at 13:56 PM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
205, Tom, You are starting from the premise that phishing was in fact the method by which the documents were obtained. The only evidence for this is the Heartland claim. If that claim is false, I'm not sure Best is guilty of fraud just for lying (or being mistaken) about the nature of the theft. He quite likely would not want to admit that he allowed someone (a disgruntled employee) access to his computer and files. This would not sit well with people who give you hundreds of thousands of dollars to be just a little more careful than that. It would be obstruction of justice if it were a lie and he said that to any official agents brought in to investigate the issue, but they would quickly see the e-mail records and such and corroborate the claim. If no authorities (beyond their own lawyers) are brought in, then there's no obstruction of justice. With that said... as I said, I do believe the document is a fake, and phishing is certainly the most plausible method. I'm merely pointing out that your logic is flawed. There is not sufficient evidence at present to arrive at the conclusion that the document must be a fake. [Again, I'm pretty sure it may be, but it doesn't much matter if it is or is not, outside of diminishing the impact of the entire release, which makes it's inclusion a tactical error of the gravest proportions, because it's going to give HI a lot of traction on avoiding the real, damning content of their documents, such as trying to influence elections in Wisconsin and influence what is actually taught in schools... can you imagine their furor if Greenpeace were exposed for an equivalent effort to influence curriculum in schools for environmental purposes?] -
Eric (skeptic) at 13:55 PM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
Doug H, that's easily answered: http://heartland.org/marc-morano -
Doug Hutcheson at 13:40 PM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
Gringo @ 171, I love the comment:We promise anonymity to many of our donors because nobody wants the risk of nutty environmentalists or Occupy Wall Street goons harassing them.
On the other hand, it is fine for right wing-nuts to post email addresses of climate scientists like Katharine Hayhoe and incite their loyal nutty mercenaries to send the victim vicious and threatening emails, slash their victim's car tyres and generally harass them. I have been unable to find any evidence of the Heartland Institute decrying such behaviour and it strains credulity to suggest they don't know it is happening. As reported by Peter Sinclair at Climate Denial Crock of the Week:Hayhoe had her name and email contact published by the ever-cuddly Marc “climate scientists should be flogged” Morano, grand Wazir of the Sharia school of Climate denial.
Such a nice chap. I wonder if he has his hand in the H.I. till, too. -
Tom Curtis at 13:32 PM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
Sphaerica @203, it is always possible, for example, that a member of the board was part of a small strategy meeting before the main board meeting in which a paper document was distributed, and in which strategy was planned for the board meeting. It is further possible that that paper document was then taken back to LA or Seattle (or wherever) and scanned. However, somebody with access to a limited circulation document as suggested by this theory would not need to phish in order to get the other documents. Therefore, on evidence available the supposition must be that the strategy document is a fake. If it emerges that the purported email from Bast to donors is itself a fake, or that Bast is charged for fraud based on that email, then we have reason to revise that opinion. But as it stands, I believe we must accept and act on the belief that it is a fake. -
bill4344 at 13:14 PM on 17 February 2012Climate Insights: a series of bite sized videos on climate science
What is a climate model? is a cracker! -
Bert from Eltham at 13:08 PM on 17 February 2012Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
We live on a spherical rock with oceans of water and an atmosphere. Our only source of energy is the Sun. The recent period of an equilibrium of radiation from the Sun and the re-radiation back to space for the last thousands of years is where we adapted and flourished as a species. The weather we see in our atmosphere is a very poor analogy for the similar chaotic currents in our oceans. The time constants for both systems are completely different. But they are very similar. Hence the unpredictability. Us puny humans are trying to understand the changes we have made by our releasing or pollution of CO2 into our atmosphere. By measuring the change in atmospheric temperatures we get an indication of the damage we are doing. The ocean temperatures seem to be lagging far behind but are far more sinister for long term equilibrium. There is no doubt that greenhouse gases are the major driving forces that are the cause for the climate changes we are now seeing. Looking at one tiny local phenomena will not negate the whole picture. Anyone who promotes this as evidence is a fool or a liar. Bert -
Lloyd Flack at 13:06 PM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
Tom Curtis @ 201, I agree with your analysis. It looks like the act of someone with more zeal than judgment. Someone willing to use phishing to get these papers is all too likely to try to improve their haul. What do these papers show? Not much that we did not aready suspect. John Mashey's investigations have actually turned up far more. The main thing that they should do is to put the tax exempt status of the Heartland Institute under investigation. -
Bob Lacatena at 12:58 PM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
201, Tom, There is one flaw in all of that PDF-Pacific time logic. I'm not saying it's likely, but... physical copies of the strategy memo could have been delivered by hand/mail to people who then scanned and disseminated it electronically. It could also have been acquired by someone several weeks ago, when it was written, in Chicago, taken to the west coast, and scanned there at the last minute to include it with the other electronic documents. The fact that it came from a physical document really means that you can't prove anything from it (except that the leak/thief, or one of the recipients of the documents, was in the Pacific time zone a few days ago). I'm not saying this is likely, and my personal feeling is that it is a fake... there's just no reason for a memo like that to be written, and with a somewhat more churlish tone than the other, more professional sounding documents. It doesn't say much of anything that doesn't appear elsewhere. It's redundant and useless. It's also a wholly unnecessary inclusion. The rest of the documents are damning enough on their own. There's no reason for anyone to pretty-up some quotable variations on a theme. -
sauerj at 12:38 PM on 17 February 2012Video of Chuck Kutscher debunking climate skeptic arguments
Wow! Great presentation! He hit all the major denial points. I've been looking for something like this. ... I'd love to show this at work for a lunch & learn. It ought to turn some heads. ... I'll definitely be posting on facebook! Thanks, John, for posting. And, thanks andylee for youtube link. -
Bob Lacatena at 12:32 PM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
200, Camburn, I never said any. You think the US military and the CIA should be required to divulge all information? On research... if we have researchers working on brilliant and novel new energy sources or engineering techniques, do you think that information should be available to other countries and private investors to exploit? No, obviously not. Research is already well monitored and governed by the universities, peers and funding sources that grant those funds. That sort of openness is not required. "Charitable organizations," however, appear free to do anything they please to further the interests of either specific industries or the people who got rich in those industries, while skirting tax laws and hiding the true nature of their efforts. Unlike you, I'm not in the least bit concerned about some nefarious scientist secretly plotting to clone Joseph Stalin from the hairs on one of his old brushes. I am concerned about people who already have substantially more power and influence than other people further exploiting the system to work to their benefit. -
Tom Curtis at 12:24 PM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
On current evidence we should now regard the "strategy document as a fake. In particular Joseph Bast has now reportedly brought in the police to investigate a matter of identity theft. If he has no reason to suspect identity theft, that makes him liable for criminal charges. If he claims to have brought the matter before police in a fund raising document, while not having done so, that makes him liable for fraud. Therefore the presumption must be that some of the documents where obtained by phishing. It should be noted that Duke C, in a comment at Lucia's Blackboard, claims to have time stamps of the "strategy" document that breaks it down to Greenwich Mean Time plus offset, providing evidence that the strategy document was scanned in the Pacific time zone of the US (or equivalent in Canada, or Mexico etc). As the Heartland Institute does not have offices on the West Coast, it follows that the document was almost certainly not scanned in HI offices. It is not reasonable to believe that a person so remote from the HI offices as the US West Coast would have a physical copy of the strategy document, but also need to phish in order to get copies of the other documents (excluding the 990 form). Therefore, in order to have such a document they must have created it themselves, or had it created by an accomplice. Hence, by my estimation on current evidence, it is very likely (>90% probability) that the document is a fake. It should further be noted that my earlier inference that this is an internal job is flawed. Specifically the 990 form which was not phished is, apparently, published on the web and has been for some time. Therefore, while it was accessed before December 6th, 2011, and was not phished, that could have been done by any interested person. Finally, the most reasonable conclusion given this evidence is that the leaked information, like that for the University of East Anglia, was obtained by criminal activity. This certainly gives reasonable grounds to have ethical qualms about discussing and distributing information contained within the documents. Everybody must look to their own conscience on that point. -
owl905 at 11:15 AM on 17 February 2012Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
Really good recap article. Some of the comments don't show the same savvy. El Nino doesn't transmit solar-sourced heat to the depths - the dominance of El Nino's in the 90s reflects its surge. La Nina draws deep-cold up and, by definition, facilitates gyres elewhere transporting heat to the depths. The hole is dismissing the Spencer no-heating measurement down 700 metres (altho it misses polar warm-current changes that have spiked in the 00s). It's more likely that the heat is in currents and layers that disappear in the measurement noise of a few thousand scattered buoy pins. It's similar to recent research finding CO2 levels in particular regions higher than the background 390ppm. The bigger picture is an embarrassing sense of relief. Yes, temperature rise is slowed to a crawl thanks to the oceanic pumping episodes. But if the region 1000 metres below the surface to 1000 metres above the surface isn't rapidly heating - and that's what counts - then technically-accurate butwaddabouts won't free one red cent for a response. It could mean decades, even centuries, of repeated sequestering stalls; and that could slow or stutter the warming enough for adaptation to have a fighting chance. And that's the relief: the world has collectively chosen to let GHG-pollution run amuk. If the deep ocean is the magic-sink that buys some time - thank gawd for it. And as a footnote, the dictionary should be changed to allow looses to be a synonym for loses ... it actually reduce global internet traffic. -
Brandon Shollenberger at 10:42 AM on 17 February 2012Book review of Michael Mann's The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars
Many people have spoke about negative reviews of this book being written by people who haven't read it. For anyone interested in a more informed review which doesn't praise the book, I offer this thread. I've been posting some reactions to the book as I read it on that thread, and my reactions haven't been positive. More importantly, my reactions are always accompanied by the text I refer to (save one about a figure, where I provide a link to an equitable figure), so there can be no denying my reaction is based on what the book says. I do apologize for the fact my comments are in an open thread, meaning other things are discussed in the same place. Still, it is a better option than anything else I've seen offered. So, if you're interested, my first reaction can be found here. If you're not interested, you should at least see what I discuss in this comment. Specifically, we find Michael Mann saying his first paper on the hockey stick was entirely dependent upon a small set of tree ring data despite the fact the paper says the exact opposite. -
Sapient Fridge at 10:38 AM on 17 February 2012Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
Typos, or non-UK English? "looses to Space" and "loose energy to space" (Delete this comment afterwards if you want) -
JMurphy at 10:38 AM on 17 February 2012Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
Four slight spelling-mistakes : Two instances of 'loose' (lines 10 and 11) should be 'lose'. One instance of 'new' in the fourth line of The Smoking Gun subsection should be 'knew'. One instance of 'where' (fourth line from the end) should be 'were'. Very good post, by the way, but you can delete this message for being related to a side-issue if necessary ! -
skywatcher at 10:37 AM on 17 February 2012Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
And of course to add to Rob's point, why are the oceans still warming? If they were releasing heat to the atmosphere, they would show cooling, but they don't. If the ocean ridges were producing most of the carbon increase (and necessarily overwhelming anthropogenic sources, the distribution of worldwide CO2 concentration would be rather different. But the observed pattern is one of highest concentrations in the NH and over land, thus disproving the ocean ridge hypothesis, which demands a pattern more akin to the global distribution of spreading ridges (I recall some nice animations of global CO2 distribution and the latitudinal pattern of increasing CO2 concentration but can't find them). High CO2 production in the SH by ocean ridges is not observed. -
Camburn at 10:33 AM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
Sphaerica @199: I agree 100%. Any public funding of any type should be open. Research paid by public dollars, all, as you indicated, charitable organizations etc. An open meeting/records policy has never hurt anyone. -
Guardianista2012 at 10:29 AM on 17 February 2012Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
Thanks for the link, Rob Painting. 1 other question, What stops the heat from rising rapidly? -
Rob Painting at 10:27 AM on 17 February 2012Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
tonydunc -c"couldn't it be argued that the huge time lag in deep ocean cycling could be responsible for temperature changes from decades or centuries ago?" Ah, the ol' magical warming trick. The ocean warming causes the atmosphere to warm, but why did the oceans warm in the first place? Where did the energy come from? -
Rob Painting at 10:20 AM on 17 February 2012Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
Guardianista2012 - "The only snag that I see is that it doesn't explain what causes the heat to be sucked down in to the deep" Modeling in Meehl (2011) suggest mid-latitude oceanic gyres are sucking the heat down to the depths and that this predominantly occurs during La Nina-like periods. See SkS post: Ocean Heat Poised To Come Back And Haunt Us? Observations tentatively confirm this, but we'll have to see what the peer-reviewed literature has to say. The other problem, of course, is that it's difficult to explain why heat in the ocean is caused by CO2 which is in the air Yes, a common misunderstanding. Greenhouse gases, such as CO2, alter the thermal gradient in the 'cool skin' layer of the surface ocean. This causes the oceans to slowly accumulate heat over time. See SkS post: How Increasing Carbon Dioxide Heats The Ocean -
Bob Lacatena at 10:20 AM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
I think this whole thing, however, sort of says that "charities" should be forced to have explicitly open and available documentation for everything. Certainly, a donor can ask to be anonymous, and that anonymity should be respected within the charity. But if anyone (meaning any US tax payer) explicitly asks then they should be able to see the donors, the private documents, meeting minutes (which should be required), e-mails, copies of all organization publications, and everything else. Basically, by adopting the mantle of non-profit, charitable organization, they have surrendered their right to privacy... as is necessary, since they are in a way being funded by US taxpayers. If they want to keep secrets, they can easily do so... by abandoning the non-profit premise and opening their files so that we the people can make sure that they are on the up-and-up. This would apply to everything from Greenpeace to the Roman Catholic Church to the Heartland Institute. If they don't like it... pay taxes. -
tonydunc at 10:17 AM on 17 February 2012Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
Glenn, couldn't it be argued that the huge time lag in deep ocean cycling could be responsible for temperature changes from decades or centuries ago? In my experience the most sophisticated denier arguments attack the validity of graphs like the "ocean VS Land+ atmosphere +ice", by going into the details and asserting that there are major assumptions that are inaccurate. EG. arguing that ocean rifts are not adequately studied to determine Anthropocentric CO2 emissions. And I forget the actual argument, but something about how the CO13 to CO14 ratio is no proof of anthropocentric CO2 increase. SO how much do we know about heat exchange for the entire oceans? Or do we not need to know that because we can determine the rate of change, and that is enough? -
Bob Lacatena at 10:15 AM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
Pirate, It is impossible to ever prove the Climate Strategy memo to be a fake. It is also probably impossible to ever prove it to be real, short of finding a physical copy with Joe Bast's fingerprints on it, or in the briefcase of one of the directors. It is, however, a well-considered piece of damage control on the part of HI to declare it as such, because they will always be able to argue that it was fake, and so imply that you can't trust anything that was released. They probably can't do this directly with other documents, because there are too many copies out there, but they can achieve the same effect by casting doubt on that one. Note that as a US taxpayer you yourself can request past copies of all of their Form 990 filings, not just the copy released. But this strategy also conveniently gets everyone talking about whether or not that was faked, rather than focusing on the fact that their organization actively participates in a purposeful disinformation campaign, is funded by a relative handful of well-heeled individuals, and to my mind has absolutely no right to the claim that it is a charitable, non-profit organization which does not have to pay taxes, and for which the donors can make tax deductions for their contributions (a double-whammy -- basically, the U.S. taxpayers are paying twice to support an organization which is bent on a political agenda shared by a very few, powerful people). On the other hand, there really is nothing in the strategy document that is not in the other documents, except perhaps an embarrassing display of a more cavalier and audacious attitude toward their own documented, planned agenda. -
Guardianista2012 at 10:00 AM on 17 February 2012Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
Great article that clearly explains the 'missing heat'. The only snag that I see is that it doesn't explain what causes the heat to be sucked down in to the deep (La Nina) or re-emitted (El Nino). Unless we can predict those, in theory, we could have La Ninas going on for decades, which will be a hard sell to the public when fighting the deniers. The other problem, of course, is that it's difficult to explain why heat in the ocean is caused by CO2 which is in the air. -
Stephen Baines at 09:49 AM on 17 February 2012Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
Glenn's post is excellent for it's clear-mindedness. It really highlights why the natural cycle idea, when addressed at the right scale, really is an instance of magical thinking, given the data we have in hand. -
Stevo at 09:43 AM on 17 February 2012Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
Outstandingly good article, Glenn. Its clear, concise and easily understood. You've slam dunked an argument the so called skeptics have been trotting out quite a bit lately. -
dhogaza at 09:27 AM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
John Mashey: "To summarize a long story, documented in detail, IRS rules generally forbid US 501(c)(3) charities from sending grants to foreign non-charities except under restricted circumstances ... and saying that such foreign recipients need not be monitored because they are "friends" doesn't cut it." The directors and officers of Heartland should bone up on the legal phrase "piercing the corporate veil". The IRS knows what it means ... -
Dikran Marsupial at 09:13 AM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
Eric, in the AGW debate, there obviously is a need to judge as there are likely to be consequences to out fossil fuel use. So we need to judge the competing hypothesis to decide on what action we should take or not take. -
Eric (skeptic) at 09:11 AM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
Dikran, you can always delay judgement when there is no need to judge. -
Dikran Marsupial at 09:09 AM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
Eric (skeptic) no, that isn't skepticism, that is sitting on the fence. You can always delay judgment whilst gathering data indefinitely and call it skepticism. Wikipedia says: Skepticism or Scepticism has many definitions, but generally refers to any questioning attitude towards knowledge, facts, or opinions/beliefs stated as facts,[1] or doubt regarding claims that are taken for granted elsewhere. Note that a questioning attitude does not preclude comming to a conclusion. -
Eric (skeptic) at 08:59 AM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
Being a skeptic means delaying judgement while gathering as much data as possible for as long as possible. I believe the document in question is fake, but I am being selectively skeptic (noting the lack of evidence that it was created by Heartland in metadata, quality and structure, but ignoring the actual content). A true skeptic would not believe or disbelieve the document at this point. -
Rob Honeycutt at 08:55 AM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
Camburn... "Being a skeptic means that we don't let others "interpret" the data at hand. We do it ourselves." That strikes me as a rather absurd statement. If science operated that way nothing would ever get accomplished because you'd have millions of interpretations on any given published set of data. Instead, why not do what science has always done. Allow scientists to do research and try to publish their findings. If their findings make it through peer review then the broader community has the chance to either point out mistakes or try to replicate it to see if they get the same or similar results, or see if they can improve on the methods and get more robust results. This is my complaint about the whole "climate audit" idiocy. If any given piece of published science is wrong, let it be wrong. Subsequent research will show it to be the case and the research in error will fade from prominence. Understanding how wrong answers came to be is just as important as how correct answers are found. Essentially, if all historical science had to go through "skeptical audits" we'd have to discard 90% of all of science that has preceded. Applying an audit process to science would stop science dead in it's tracks today... But then again, maybe that's their point. -
DSL at 08:39 AM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
Camburn: "Being a skeptic means that we don't let others "interpret" the data at hand. We do it ourselves." And when someone points out an error or weakness in the methodology of your interpretation . . . ? -
Phila at 08:29 AM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
Being a skeptic means that we don't let others "interpret" the data at hand. We do it ourselves. Incompetence and arrogance, together at last! -
Brian Purdue at 08:18 AM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
Don’t forget we’re not only dealing with the “Denial” machine but also the “Doubt” machine. The Heartland Institute has had plenty of practice at both so I wouldn’t believe anything this crew say. The worm has turned. -
OPatrick at 08:07 AM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
There is a certain irony in Jim Lakely, Heartland's communication director, apparently not responding to Suzanne Goldenberg's request for them to confirm the authenticity of the fundraising e-mail - from The Guardian He did not respond to a request to characterise the campaign, or send a copy of the fundraising email. He also refused to comment on the authenticity of a fundraising email obtained by the Mother Jones website on Thursday. -
Dikran Marsupial at 07:54 AM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
Camburn wrote: "Being a skeptic means that we don't let others "interpret" the data at hand. We do it ourselves." No, that isn't skepticism, it is a symptom of Dunning-Kruger syndrome. Do you let doctors, with many years of medical training, interpret the medical data for you, or do you do it yourself? I suspect the former, and with good reason. -
Camburn at 07:34 AM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
scaddenp@185: I don't know how many hits they would have. I haven't been to their site, do they have a hit counter? I think our differences are ones of interpretation of the data. Joshua@182: My response to you was to your last paragraph @178. -
scaddenp at 07:15 AM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
Camburn - "Who payed any attention". Well how many hits does NIPCC give you let alone the regurgitation of their nonsense on blogs and media worldwide. 2/ Which millions are these? And I'd like to some evidence of you analyzing the data yourself. So far, you seem happy to prefer other's disinformation that fits your biases. -
apiratelooksat50 at 07:10 AM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
ScaredAmoeba at 163 I agree with your post. If the "strategy" document is a fake and can be linked to an entity, it will be at a minimum a severe embarrassment to the person who generated and the organization to which they are connected. -
JMurphy at 07:09 AM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
And I would love to see who has been "promoting AGW" ! Who are these AGW 'promoters', Camburn ?
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