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Guardianista2012 at 07:52 AM on 18 February 2012Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
Thanks Glen, I can see what you're saying there now. There's still a puzzle in my mind why the warm water would get drawn down in the first place, though. Is there any problem with my suggestion that ENSO events could be sourced from below, though? We know there's heat down there, so why wouldn't it permeate to the sea floor and heat the water from below? Obviously, we're talking subtle temp changes but over a whole planet could explain the variable temps we see. -
Glenn Tamblyn at 07:39 AM on 18 February 2012Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
Guardianista2012 Heat will only rise back towards the surface if the water below is warmer than that above. This will depend on how much mixing occurs when the warm water from the surface meets the cooler water at the bottom of the gyres. Just because the lower waters have been heated doesn't automatically mean that they will be warmer than the water above. The heat figures just mean that they are warmer than they had been previously. -
Stephen Baines at 07:39 AM on 18 February 2012DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
WheelsOC, I take your point that disengaging is not the correct thing to do. But scientists do engage quite a bit through the IPCC mechanism. Every 5-7 years scientists donate thousands of hours of time to the purpose to providing the clearest view of the consensus. A number of them spend inordinate time addressing public pseudoscience. My point was that you have to pick your battles given these other laudable efforts. I personally don't feel that engaging in report battles is the best way. They reach a limited self-selecting audience and their impact can be manipulated easily. There is no gaurantee that such a report will get the attention it deserves. It's not as if every reputable scientific society has not made a clear statement on the issue and members of the NAS have not chimed in with a letter that got largely ignored. One can make the case that if the IPCC report did not work when addressing the same issues as the NIPCC, why would yet another report succeed? I think Dana's approach here and Sks in general are far better suited to handling the debunking of the NIPCC for truly inquisitive people like yourself. In addition to these debunkings, Sks makes an effort to show how current research keeps showing us over and over that real climate science is moving forward. On the other hand, a good public forum like the Dover trials would be an excellent place to have a give and take about climate pseudoscience. Scientists would gladly participate in that as the ground rules are clear and the aim of the court is to get at the truth, not to press an agenda. Those kinds of fora have been few and far between in the "climate wars" though. It seems to me its a deliberate tactic by those disputing the consensus to avoid such exposure. After all, many on the ID side thought the Dover trials were a clear tactical error. -
Guardianista2012 at 07:14 AM on 18 February 2012Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
Thanks Rob Painting, actually my question was, I can see how an ocean downwelling could momentarily draw warm water to the depths of the ocean, but convection should surely mean that the warm water would be drawn to the surface very quickly? I've been giving this conundrum some thought. Could it be possible that the ENSO events are actually being caused by geothermal activity from below? We know the earth has a molten core, so you'd imagine the temperature rising from the core to the surface would fluctuate, and this could explain ENSO events better than heat being drawn down from above. That isn't to say that I'm suggesting that the earth's temperature is entirely dependent on geothermal activity, just that it's a combination of heat from the sun and heat from below. Heaven and hell, if you like. -
Dennis at 06:55 AM on 18 February 2012DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
I think what I'm getting at is that there need to be official statements by organizations like NAS, AAAS, etc. that unambiguously state that documents like the NIPCC reports are categorically not science. These organizations need to get their PR machines out there calling the media, reasserting what is and is not science when things like the Heartland leak hit the news. UCS does that, but they are a different kind of organization. Those that are responsible for policing the scientific process and publish the peer reviewed literature need to start pointing the finger at groups like Heartland. Anytime a fake expert appears on TV, a real expert should call him out as fake, and be able to say that's not me talking, that's the entire scientific community. -
tonydunc at 06:07 AM on 18 February 2012Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
Owl, of course we have already waited too long and their will be some level of hell to pay. -
Tom Curtis at 05:59 AM on 18 February 2012Skepticism About Lower Atmosphere Temperature Data
Camburn @33, I notice that your "descriptions" of the content of your links is so uninformative it could have been written by a bot. As such I believe it to violate the comments policy, specifically the requirement that:"No link or pic only. Links to useful resources are welcome (see HTML tips below). However, comments containing only a link will be deleted. At least provide a short summary of the content of the webpage to facilitate discussion (and show you understand the page you're linking to). Similarly, images are very welcome as they can be very useful in explaining the science. But comments with pictures in isolation without explanation will be deleted."
(My underlining.) I therefore request that you provide a summary of the content of the two papers to which you linked, and how the relate to the ongoing discussion. -
Tom Curtis at 05:52 AM on 18 February 2012Skepticism About Lower Atmosphere Temperature Data
Fred Staples @32, I notice that you: 1) You are asserting that a microwave channel which measure microwaves over a 20km altitude band accurately measures the temperatures of just an 8 km altitude band, and that the effect of the other 12 km in no way effects the temperature measured by that channel. That is a startling claim, but you sole defense of that claim is to insist that your protagonists have the burden of proof to disprove your claim; and that if they do not disprove it, not just on balance of probabilities which I have done, but beyond reasonable doubt, then you purport that the failure to disprove the claim beyond reasonable doubt establishes your claim as true. That does not constitute scientific argument on your behalf, but a silly rhetorical game for which I have no more time nor patience. 2) You are further asserting that temperature trends measured over 30 plus years using the TMT channel cannot be effected by stratospheric cooling because the stratospheric cooling is not statistically significant for periods less than 22 years. I note the obvious that 30 years is greater than 22 years, so that your point is in fact irrelevant. Indeed, it amounts to little more than a verbal shell game in which you raise any objection regardless of whether it establishes your case, or disproves your opponents argument. There is no point in discussing anything with a person who takes that approach. The relevant information has been sufficiently canvassed above. If anybody is uncertain as to whether the TMT channel gives an accurate measure of temperature changes solely over the middle troposphere (2-10 km altitude), they are welcome to reread it. But I am not going to endlessly reargue the case with you as you evidently have nothing intelligent to contribute to such a discussion. -
Camburn at 05:44 AM on 18 February 2012Skepticism About Lower Atmosphere Temperature Data
This paper may shed some light on the uncerainty of lower Trop and Strat temperature trends: Strat Trop temp trends etc Another paper to go with the above. I think a person needs to read the above paper first to understand the conclusions of this paper: Trends not matching CCM's -
WheelsOC at 05:34 AM on 18 February 2012DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
D'oh, make that Stephen Baines @25 of course! -
WheelsOC at 05:33 AM on 18 February 2012DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
Stephen Baines @21 Yes, it's the old problem scientists have faced with popular pseudoscience. By addressing it in-depth, they think it gives the pseudoscientists the public credibility they crave, and thus the appropriate response is to ignore them and get on with the real deal. But as we've seen with evolution, it doesn't exactly work like that all the time. There is a lot of utility in comprehensive rebuttals, i.e. the TalkOrigins archive, where laymen like me can get an accessible tear-down of the psueodscience and not come away thinking that the anti-evolutionists are more credible because they've been engaged with. The very public dissection of the Intelligent Design movement at the Kitzmiller v. Dover Area Board of Education trial was an enormous blow to the good PR that IDists had enjoyed until people got a close look at them. It was their own testimony that was the most damning, once it was stripped of the protective aura they'd built up by disallowing scientific rebuttals and only going after straw-man "science." When confronted in a truly neutral venue where both parties could introduce all the relevant evidence they wanted, the whole charade fell apart. That's one of the reasons I'm grateful for resources like RealClimate and SkS. -
Stephen Baines at 05:09 AM on 18 February 2012DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
Dennis @21 I think most scientists would think a response to the NIPCC report worse than a waste of time. That's because the rebuttal to the NIPCC report is the IPCC report. I know it sounds like a cop-out, but as dana points out all the issues raised in the NIPCC report were already dealt with in greater depth and more evenhandedly in the IPCC report. Responding to the NIPCC specifically actually emphasizes all those fringe arguments for low impacts of CO2. At the same time it generates the appearance that there is a tit for tat going on between a pro-IPCC crowd and and NIPCC crowd. People generally respond to tit for tats by thinking the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle, when in fact the IPCC is the middle. It sounds crazy, but what may really be needed is an extreme environmentalist version of the NIPCC report (maybe the MIPCC for "more than the IPCC") that emphasizes all the fringe arguments for truly extreme and cataclysmic change in the short term (runaway greenhouse? short-term land ice collapse? Malaria pandemic? Nuclear armageddon?) that the IPCC correctly hedged against in its attempt to reflect the scientific consensus. Then the IPCC report would actually look like the conservative middle-brow consensus that it actually is, in a scientific sense. -
Philippe Chantreau at 05:03 AM on 18 February 2012DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
Fake skeptics have no interest in anything but to protect their worldview. Anything that threatens it is dismissed, anything that reinforces it is adopted unconditionally. NIPCC demonstrates nothing else than this basic principle. I recently witnessed a most amusing, extreme example of that, thanks to Tamino. The part where the poster suddenly attacks the graph that he previously misunderstood as "friendly" is especially revealing. I have not visited Icecap since this story came out so I don't know if D'Aleo realized the blunder yet. However, it is revealing that he put the graph up in the first place with such superficial understanding that he could not see it actually shows the opposite of what he thought. It also indicates what kind of scrutiny fake skeptics apply to information they perceive as reinforcing their views (i.e. next to zero). These people have no interest in reality. They are a threat to society and the fight against them is much rigged because for tehm anything goes, they will never put any limitations on themselves except for the ones not worth risking (grossly illegal actions or violent crimes, of non white-collar type). They are not bounded by consistency, logic or reality. It's like trying to have a rational conversation with a paranoid schizophrenic person: it truly is impossible. -
Fred Staples at 04:48 AM on 18 February 2012Skepticism About Lower Atmosphere Temperature Data
Sorry, Tom, but you can’t make a trend significant by printing in bold. Over 18 years, the trend at 15.75 kms is warming, not cooling, but not significantly so. So, I ask again, on what grounds do we reject the mid-troposphere data. -
Jim Eager at 04:24 AM on 18 February 2012DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
Bast & Co and his donors don't want to completely undermine science, they just want to whittle it down until it's small enough to drown in a bathtub. -
Fred Staples at 04:16 AM on 18 February 2012Global Warming: Trend and Variation
“Dikran Marsupial, Captain Ross's benchmark at Port Arthur was examined byPugh et al, 2002. Based on that, they conclude that sea level at Port Arthur has risen 0.13 meters in the interval, or 0.8 mm per year.” 0.13 meters or 5” in 172 years. We are in an inter-glacial period with a rise of 120 meters (if I remember correctly) since the last ice age. We have been climbing out of the little ice age for more than 100 years since the Ross mark was placed. Do we believe the following, unequivocally?: In 2007 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected that during the 21st century, sea level will rise another 18 to 59 cm (7.1 to 23 in), but these numbers do not include "uncertainties in climate-carbon cycle feedbacks nor do they include the full effects of changes in ice sheet flow". -
Chris Colose at 04:13 AM on 18 February 2012Tropical Thermostats and Global Warming
chriskoz, Equally interesting is why it took the skeptics 20 years to really talk about it (the Ramanathan and Collins paper was in 1991), since it means the temperatures in the tropics cannot change all that much. -
DMCarey at 03:52 AM on 18 February 2012Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
Exceptionally well written article. Certainly on the concerning side however, seeing there sheer volume of energy that the Earth system has accumulated. P.S. Glenn, I actually laughed out loud at your response 16 -
owl905 at 03:51 AM on 18 February 2012DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
@ Nichol 13 "it seems that there must be something in their repetition." For some. For most it's from the same bucket as re-using cloth-eared insults about Gore, Suzuki, Mann, alarmists, religion ... it's dragging the discussion down by getting someone to 'swing at a pitch in the dirt'. Unfortunately, it's worked all too well, and every reaction has produced additional repetitions. The NIPCC was a perfect example of a document with well-worn glaring errors - begging people to give those errors endless attention. So far, the biggest pro-pollutionist flunkout was Son of Climategate ... too bad more of their message didn't get equal non-attention. -
Dennis at 03:38 AM on 18 February 2012DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
dana1981 @ 15: I agree that from a scientific point it is a waste of time, but the audience I think a proper rebuttal would be aimed at is policymakers. I suspect that at some time someone like Inhofe has waved the report into a camera and called it "sound science." There needs to be a genuine scientific rebuttal that can be waved right back in his face, in front of the cameras. It won't change Inhofe's mind, but it may make others pause. I personally think it would go a long way towards exposing the fraud of groups like Heartland if there was a formal mechanism in the established scientific community, endorsed by groups like NAS, AAAS, AGU, etc. that says "this document is fraud, and here is why ..." -
citizenschallenge at 03:33 AM on 18 February 2012DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
Dana do you survive on two hours sleep a night? Fantastic work! Thank you. ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ PS. if NIPCC did a broad overview of all the scientific evidence they would have to change their minds ~ NO CAN DO ~ Prime Imperative: never give an inch. -
Albatross at 03:29 AM on 18 February 2012DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
There are some parallels here between the NIPCC report and the much discredited Wegman report. Fake skeptics like to (or at least used to) tout the plagiarised Wegman report which also inlcludes some wonderful cherry picking and misrepresentations, amongst other nefarious things. The same fake skeptics, not surprisingly, uncritically cite the incredibly biased, narrowly focussed NIPPC report, which like the Wegman report also misrepresents the science. Both were solicted by fake skeptics, not to advance the acience or improve our understanding of the science but to attack the credibility of the long-established climate science (and even scientists) and to fabricate doubt. Both fake skeptic documents are the very antithesis of science. I would not be surprised if some of the fake skeptics involved in producing the Wegman report were also involved in the NIPPC report. That is something that John Mashey could explore, if he has not already done so. AS noted by Dana, the NIPCC report does not undergo extensive and transparent external peer-review. Futher, the authors have very little experience in the field of climate science. Futhermore, unlike the IPCC assessment reports which require dozens upon dozens of governments to agree on and sign off on, the NIPPC report only requires the blessing of some right-wing lobby and think tanks. In short, the NIPCC report is nothing more than propaganda, advocacy and misinformation-- yet it is endorsed by the likes of Roy Spencer, Lindzen, and IIRC, Pielke senior. There maybe other prominent "skeptics" who endorse the NIPCC report, which would speak volumes about their scientific standards, or rather lack thereof. -
dana1981 at 03:22 AM on 18 February 2012DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
Stephen - thanks. "Skeptics" like Roy Spencer have said the Heartland's NIPCC report is important because the IPCC report ignores "skeptic" arguments. This is both wrong and backwards. The IPCC summarizes all the science, but it's also a consensus overview document, and thus the fringe arguments made by "skeptics" are not featured as prominently as the points which are supported by a broad body of research. So the "skeptics" respond by doing exactly what they accuse the IPCC of doing - ignoring the research they don't like and focusing exclusively on their own arguments. Spencer says he "hearts Heartland" for this reason. But if the "skeptics" were really interested in producing a valid rebuttal to the IPCC report, it should be a broad overview of all the scientific evidence, and then show why their hypotheses are stronger than the AGW theory. Instead the NIPCC report reveals they're only interested in advancing their own long-debunked arguments, which is not surprising, since that's exactly what Heartland is paying them to do. -
owl905 at 03:20 AM on 18 February 2012Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
@Glen 20 "If Mother Nature (not wanting to over-anthropomorphise here) wanted us to act on this 'She' would have scared the living bejeesus out of is ages ago." Over-Gaia'd is exactly the way your response sounds. It isn't a supernatural entity. Your argument doesn't work with either the planet mechanics or the human reactions. Tonydunc highlights the fallacy - you're seeking a 'significant increase in temps' on the absurd notion that it will wake up the world. Bad news - already had it (the 90s) and the world turtled on a response BEFORE the make-believe flatline. You guys simply don't get it - the only slack and delay is natural buffering from the biosphere. The world had it's pro-active chance two decades ago. The collective decision voted for the 'good' pollution. So check your 'I want a fire alarm' ego at the door, and start rooting for the biggest buffer possible - because tonydunc's if-then flunks on the 'then' and it only means more and bigger garbage dumps sooner. -
Stephen Baines at 03:12 AM on 18 February 2012DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
dana...this is an excellently concise overview of the dramatic differences in approach and intent between the IPCC report and NIPCC "report." I think it's spot on in terms of focus and depth. And it points out why these two documents should not be considered on equal but opposite footing by anyone. They are two completely different animals entirely. -
dana1981 at 02:49 AM on 18 February 2012DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
One difference between the NIPCC and IPCC I didn't mention in the post is that the IPCC report is extensively reviewed, and anybody can comment on its contents. Obviously neither is true of the NIPCC report. -
dana1981 at 02:48 AM on 18 February 2012DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
michael @12 - thanks. The 2011 interim NIPCC report is 432 pages. Dennis @14 - I would imagine that climate scientists would view rebutting the NIPCC report as a waste of time, since nobody outside climate denialists takes it seriously (for the reasons discussed in the post above, and because it's not a peer-reviewed publication). In fact I never even see climate denialists reference it, until now that is. -
Stephen Baines at 02:41 AM on 18 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
Martin @219 This was carried in the NYT on page 12 or something a couple of days ago. Still, you're point is probably correct. My sense is that it isn't seen as news because most journalists and editors have always known what the true nature of HI is - that of a counter-information campaign whose purpose is to muddy scientific justification for regulation. It is an agenda driven PR effort, not an attempt to get at objective truth. The travesty is that, given that knowledge, credible outlets still give them a hearing as if they represent a valid scientific opinion rather than a partisan voice. This gives the impression that scientists also constitute a block of people with a similarly partisan voice, rather than a community of people following a completely different path -- simply struggling to understand the world using the scientific method. As a society we've been so entrained into he he said/she said, horse-race approach to describing conflict that most cannot see the difference. Re communication...The fact that the scientific community is actually a diverse hodgepodge of people that is not motivated by partisan issues is the very reason we are not good at communicating this stuff. Effective communication in mainstream media requires a coherent, sharpened message. The less nuance the better. Partisan or special interest groups simply have the advantage there because they can dispense with the nuance to serve a purpose. Our prupose is harmed by doing so. Now evolution and climate change should represent cases where the scientific community can unite to communicate better because the consensus is so overwhleming. However, the lack of a partisan agenda is something that filters down to the very structure of our institutions; the dearth of support for effective communication and the in consistency in messaging between institutions is a product of the scientific mission. That communication leadership will have to come from umbrella organizations or outside the scientific community. -
The Year After McLean - A Review of 2011 Global Temperatures
Ken Lambert - "You can't have both an increasing warming imbalance and a stasis in surface temperatures." Sure you can! Surface temperatures are but one (small) portion of the globe being heated. See the excellent thread for Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still! - deep ocean temperatures are still rising, and the atmospheric and SST energies are only a fractional segment of the energy storage. Now, if the atmospheric, SST, and the deep ocean stopped warming, and loss of cryosphere stopped, then and only then, when considering all of the masses involved, the entire climate system, could you conclude that the warming imbalance has stopped. -
CBDunkerson at 02:23 AM on 18 February 2012The Year After McLean - A Review of 2011 Global Temperatures
Ken wrote: "Trenberth's position on the stasis of surface temperatures conflicts with Hansen's position. It is not a minor factor as CBD is suggesting, because these two scientists are central players in the AGW story." Umm... both deep ocean heating and aerosol cooling are "minor factors" because they are small compared to other components of the ongoing temperature rise. I really couldn't care less how much 'political significance' you assign to them as theories held by "central players". That's a truly meaningless issue for purposes of understanding the science. -
Dikran Marsupial at 02:15 AM on 18 February 2012The Year After McLean - A Review of 2011 Global Temperatures
Ken, it is dissapointing that you should respond to my post asking for a calmer discussion in a tone likely to irritate "semantic confection", and by ignoring my advice that you shoud freely admit wehen you are shown to be in error. Note I did not say that it was a "big error", just that it was an error. If you feel it was instead a minor error, then why not just admit to it? This is not a venue for rhetorical debate, it is a venue for discussion of the science. Discussion of science requires that one sets out their position unambiguously, which requires admitting error and reformulating the position when some issue (no matter how minor) is found to be in error. Your last paragraph is also in error, and is a point that has been made repeatedly. Surface temperatures are a small component of where the energy budget imbalance shows up. It is perfectly consistent to have an increasing warming imbalance and a stasis in surface temperatures if ocean circulation has been redistributing sufficient heat. Read the paper by Easterling and Wehner (2009) on this subject. -
Ken Lambert at 01:37 AM on 18 February 2012The Year After McLean - A Review of 2011 Global Temperatures
CBD and DM Your semantic confection of some sort of 'big error' on my part does not disguise the real points, to wit: McLeans prediction was wide of the mark and I have never argued for it. Trenberth's position on the stasis of surface temperatures conflicts with Hansen's position. It is not a minor factor as CBD is suggesting, because these two scientists are central players in the AGW story. Trenberth says that the imbalance at TOA is still about 0.9W/sq.m globally after all aerosol effects are accounted for; and Hansen plumbs for about 0.6W/sq.m mainly due to the increased reflection caused by Chinese aerosols and other factors (delayed Pinitubo effect etc). Hansen's figure is supported by recent OHC measurement whereas Trenberth is still looking for the missing heat. The warming imbalance is directly relevant to the surface temperature trend from Figs 2 and 3 above. It is heading for 14 years since the El Nino surface temperature of 1998 and several ENSO cycles and one 11 year sun cycle yet nothing much is happening to surface temperatures despite claims of an increasing warming imbalance. You can't have both an increasing warming imbalance and a stasis in surface temperatures. -
les at 00:53 AM on 18 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
219 - Martin "Could this be due to the probably faked document?" With respect, that's missing the point. The reason things like not just the CRU emails but any little bit of research hits the media is because the 'denial' side has a machine in place to do that. Academic climate research has no such machine. Occasionally universities will do a press release - one amongst many that universities send to the media. And sites like DesMog and SkS etc. post stuff up... it's no where near as professional! IMHO, also, media outlets like news papers, forbs etc. know that a good juicy AGW article gets lots of comments. Comments mean page views, page views mean advertising... the more outrageous, the more anger provoking the better the advertising income... I recon that's the core success of the Tea Party. -
Bob Lacatena at 00:53 AM on 18 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
mistigrl, It may well have been reported to the Chicago Police (who would say nothing, to protect their investigation), but that the FBI had no grounds for jurisdiction (except for the timestamp on the scanned PDF, there's no evidence that the activity crossed state boundaries... I don't know what the rules are there, but it may well be that simple procedure here is to let the local authorities handle it until they go to the feds). It's also a question whether or not a crime has been committed, even if it was done by phishing. Identity theft laws are fairly new. In Illinois, for instance, the existing laws on the books all seem to focus on monetary gain. They are fairly explicit not merely about the act of impersonating someone, but also the intent and outcome. Illinois: Identify Theft Law 2006 94-0827 Note that one must argue in the underlined section below that receiving copies of original documents (which the owner still retains -- they haven't been "stolen" in that the owner still possesses them) constitutes "obtaining other property" in an actionable sense. Since the intent of the law is clearly to prevent one party from stealing things of monetary value from another, I would strongly question its applicability in this case.(a) A person commits the offense of identity theft when he or she knowingly: (1) uses any personal identifying information or personal identification document of another person to fraudulently obtain credit, money, goods, services, or other property, or (2) uses any personal identification information or personal identification document of another with intent to commit any felony theft or other felony violation of State law not set forth in paragraph (1) of this subsection (a), or (3) obtains, records, possesses, sells, transfers, purchases, or manufactures any personal identification information or personal identification document of another with intent to commit or to aid or abet another in committing any felony theft or other felony violation of State law, or...
Public Act 094-0036 Applicability of the above law almost works, because the "thief" stole the names of people. But the law states that those names must explicitly be tied to SS numbers or credit card or bank account numbers. As they have not, the law does not apply. I'm not a lawyer, and I've only done some quick googling, so maybe there is a law somewhere that applies. But there is no clear answer that any crime has been committed, even if the documents were obtained by phishing. -
Martin at 00:38 AM on 18 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
This story hasn't made it to a lot media outlets. A few newspapers, that's all. My impression was that the story about hacked emails achieved a wide distribution quite rapidly. Could this be due to the probably faked document? -
Dennis at 00:35 AM on 18 February 2012DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
Given the attention Heartland is getting right now, I wish that some climate scientists out there (unfortunately, I'm not one) had put together a comprehensive, single rebuttal of the NIPCC document, going line-by-line on the errors in the document's science, and then adding the key important scientific details Heartland conveniently ignores and why they matter. The NIPCC is the only thing close to a scientific document that deniers can mention (that I'm aware of) as a "rebuttal" to the science. I've read plenty of good, scientific rebuttals to the NIPCC, but it's all been piecemeal at various websites. A good, detailed explanation of why it is so wrong would go a long way to being the nail in the coffin of the denier's scientific arguments, and it could be publicly presented to policy makers who endorse Heartland. -
Bob Lacatena at 00:34 AM on 18 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
Tom, I don't think the Australian definition of fraud is particularly applicable here. In the strictest sense what you are saying is true, but in reality, proving something like that in a court of law in the USA becomes very, very hard. Free speech is protected to an extreme, and that includes lying. I imagine that in order to be prosecuted first you'd have to find someone who wanted to press charges, and that would be someone who gave them money and felt cheated. How likely is that? Then they'd have to prove they wouldn't have given money otherwise, and that he knowingly lied for the sole purpose of getting their money (for instance, he could argue that he was just trying to save face for his institution and prevent people from balking at giving money that they would otherwise have given). Fraud in the USA is pretty much out as an applicable crime. Obstruction of justice (lying to the police) in any fashion, on the other hand, is taken very seriously, and is often used to punish people who can't be found guilty of their crimes. "Yeah, sure, we know he killed 23 people, but we can't prove a single on of them. But we can prove that he lied about being in Seattle the day of the first murder, so we've got him on obstruction of justice!" But even there: (a) He must have reported it to the police (and he is welcome to lie about having reported it without actually doing so, although a lie like that will eventually bite him). (b) Someone must prove that it was not a phishing attack. (c) Someone must prove that he knew it was not a phishing attack (and if he's not very tech-savvy, then it's easy enough to claim it until he's blue in the face, with the defense that he never really understood what he was talking about). (d) He must not be so arrogant as to believe that he can get away with anything. (e) He must not have strong enough connections in business, politics, and government that lets him get away with anything. Note that on (b), proving that it was not a phishing attack... that may not be too hard. I mean, it should be trivially easy to prove that it was a phishing attack, unless they hire a cyber-security expert to properly fake the e-mail trail (and the embedded timezone stamp in the scanned PDF gives you some clue as to how tricky that can be). So if he really has engaged the police/FBI, and it really was a phishing attack, they are sure of that already... but won't say a word while they follow the trail (identify the actual e-mail server, subpoena server log files there and along the way, etc.). -
nealjking at 00:25 AM on 18 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
CBDunkerson: Their activity with the Angry Badger project (helping the governor of Wisconsin fight off a recall effort) could be beyond the scope for a tax-exempt non-profit of their type. That should really be investigated. -
CBDunkerson at 00:00 AM on 18 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
The Atlantic article makes a good case (except for an inexplicable erroneous tangent on the history of human chromosome research) and, along with other issues discussed in this thread, makes it seem likely that the strategy memo was faked. Which, if true, is just annoying. Where does this impulse to muck up important revelations by introducing an element of fraud that allows the whole thing to be questioned come from? It will be interesting to see whether we hear anything further about a police investigation. I think alot of us have a natural inclination to view Heartland's moral bankruptcy as inevitably tied to illegalities which would prevent them from going to the police. However, given the continual weakening of laws against 'influence peddling' in the US Heartland's actions may well be perfectly 'legitimate'... which is a whole other kind of depressing. -
nealjking at 23:35 PM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
mistigiri: Standard procedure: They're never going to confirm or deny. The only reason they disavowed the Strategy doc was that it made them look too bad (in addition to probably being faked). -
mistigri at 23:25 PM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
nealjking, yes, I'd seen the Atlantic article. I'm inclined to agree with Richard Littlemore on desmogblog, that it's up to HI to provide evidence that the strategy document was faked, or that the other documents have been altered. On the HI website they are still claiming that the "authenticity of those documents has not yet been confirmed". I think it's legitimate to ask why not. -
Nichol at 22:56 PM on 17 February 2012DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
Why do people still pay more for things that are advertised more? Because repetition works, even if the stated facts are wrong, even if they are irrelevant. That is why they just keep repeating those debunked old myths. People assume that nobody in their right mind would keep repeating debunked stories .. so if they do, it seems that there must be something in their repetition. And if you say that these guys are in some kind of conspiracy to spread debunked stories .. that makes you look like a conspiracy theorist, doesn't it? -
chriskoz at 22:02 PM on 17 February 2012Tropical Thermostats and Global Warming
I wonder what's the reason for the "tropical thermostat" argument being put forward by AGW 'sceptics' like Roger Pielke Sr. et all. Because they want to downplay global warming we're facing? No, that does not make sense. Because, in fact, this argument does not support the 'sceptic' point of view, which seeks the "it's not bad", "the temp rise will not be as high as predicted" type of conclusion. According to this argument, if the ocean cannot warm-up above the current limit in the tropics, then where will the extra heat generated from the eccess CO2 go? It will not "evaporate into space" but stay in the system. Given that simple observation, and all other factors assumed equal, that extra heat will likely end up in the atmosphere. So the land, on which we inhabit would become hotter, a lot hotter, because of far lower energy capacity of air. So, the global warming as measured by LST would be much higher. So, I would call the proponents of such "SST thermostat" theory the "extreme warmists". -
michael sweet at 21:59 PM on 17 February 2012DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
Dana, Excellent article. How long is the NIPCC report? -
nealjking at 21:55 PM on 17 February 2012Denialgate - Internal Heartland Documents Expose Climate Denial Funding Network
mistigiri: An article in The Atlantic gives cogent reasons, based on study of the content of the Strategy document, that it is probably fake: http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/02/leaked-docs-from-heartland-institute-cause-a-stir-but-is-one-a-fake/253165/ It's worth reading. -
John Brookes at 21:40 PM on 17 February 2012DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
Yes, you would have to have just half a brain to think that Heartland are sincere. I'm sure even the "skeptics" don't really think that Heartland is anything more than a lobby group putting out disinformation. -
Rob Painting at 21:23 PM on 17 February 2012Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
Woody @ 19 - CO2 is a well-mixed gas in the atmosphere. Therefore it's affect on the 'cool skin' layer of the ocean is global in scale, and more or less, uniform. And no, it is not stronger at the tropics than at the poles. That asymmetry is a function of the more intense heating that occurs at the equator, due to the more intense sunlight there. A useful way of thinking about it, is similar to the way greenhouse gases work in the atmosphere - trapping heat and letting less escape to space. The same principle is at work in the ocean - greenhouse gases trap more heat in the ocean and less is able to escape to the atmosphere. -
Rob Painting at 21:14 PM on 17 February 2012Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
Guardianista2012 @ 7 - "What stops the heat from rising rapidly?" Not sure I understand the question, but I'll have a stab and assume you're talking about why global warming, and particularly ocean warming, doesn't occur rapidly by human timescales. That's because the forcing by greenhouse gases grows gradually every year as we burn more fossil fuels. This is, however, obscured by natural variability in the climate system - El Nino/La Nina, the solar (sun spot) cycle for instance. -
Sapient Fridge at 21:07 PM on 17 February 2012Breaking News…The Earth Is Warming…Still!
actually thoughtful wrote "Please no! Lose means to reduce in quantity or not know where it is. Loose means not fitting well." Agreed. And in this case the thing that is being reduced in quantity is the energy. Or are you suggesting that energy doesn't fit well in the atmosphere? In the context: "More of the GH gases make it harder for the Earth to loose energy to space" Using "loose" looks terrible from a UK English point of view, but I have seen it misused like that in other places on the net. -
Paul D at 20:48 PM on 17 February 2012DenialGate Highlights Heartland's Selective NIPCC Science
A lot of conservatives seem to be left wing nuts based on Bast's rant. Why does he see everything in black and white?
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