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Bob Loblaw at 22:39 PM on 17 August 2020Scientists remember 'Koni' Steffen, glaciologist who died after fall into crevasse in Greenland
I just read about this in today's Globe and Mail (story attributed to the New York Times news service).
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michael sweet at 18:40 PM on 17 August 2020Why children must emit eight times less CO2 than their grandparents
Nigelj,
You are putting words in Brd Barons and my mouths.
Moderator Response:[BL] The two of you seem to be going around and around in circles on this. Can all involved please try to restrict comments to new points and reasonable discussion?
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nigelj at 13:05 PM on 17 August 2020Why children must emit eight times less CO2 than their grandparents
michael sweet @14
I have no doubt renewable energy is technically possible by 2050, and it wont be excessively stressful financially, and we have the economic capacity if theres a will to do it. That was never the point at issue.
You havent really answered my question. I will try rephrasing it. It seems unlikely we will meet the targets of solving all problems by 2050 with sustainable systems (including renewable energy), for various politicial reasons (using this widely) , so we should look at a plausible scenario, and make up the shortfall by making some level of reduction to our consumption of electricity, meat, flying, and so on (and various authorities promote the same, more or less). This in turn suggests we need to get a little bit more specific about quantities.
So do you agree or disagree ? Surely scientists can manage a simple clear cut yes or no? You can of course qualify things with as many or few '"buts" as you want.
Its just that by agreeing fully with RB you were by simple logic appear to be disagreeing pretty fully with what Ive just said.
I have already put some energy into trying to convince politicians and others to adopt renewable energy programmes. I dont specifically promote nuclear power very often at all, but I just dont see it as an option worth opposing.
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michael sweet at 10:37 AM on 17 August 2020Why children must emit eight times less CO2 than their grandparents
Nigelj,
Jacobsosn et al 2018 and Connelly et al 2016 both show that it is entirely possible to build out a renewable energy system for ALL POWER by 2050 (not just electricity, All Power: electricity, heat, transportation, farming and industry). They include non fossil fuel for airplanes. The only thing required is political will power.
If everyone works hard to convince political leaders to get going we might have a chance.
Renewable energy has only been the cheapest option for about 5 years. It is now the cheapest option in about 2/3 of the world. In a few years it will be the cheapest option everywhere. Since fossil power plants take 10 years to plan and build they are still finishing plants started 10 years ago (like the Barakah nuclear plant in the UAE). If the USA takes a leadership position the change will be faster.
The Red Baron is more optimistic and informed about regenerative agriculture than I am. I think they will get something out of agriculture.
The unsupported opinion of a non expert who does not like to read the primary literature is not very valuable.
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nigelj at 09:19 AM on 17 August 2020Why children must emit eight times less CO2 than their grandparents
Correction to typo: "Most places dont have much zero carbon electricity and are unlikely to hit 100% by 2050"
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nigelj at 07:24 AM on 17 August 2020Why children must emit eight times less CO2 than their grandparents
OPOF @10. thanks for understanding the issue is about levels of consumption, as well as building sustainable systems and making substitutions.
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nigelj at 07:17 AM on 17 August 2020Why children must emit eight times less CO2 than their grandparents
M S Sweet @9 I never said otherwise. What I said simply summarised my view @2. Here it is again: "there are a couple of problems with your ideas. Most places dont have much zero carbon electricity and are unlikely to hit 100% before 2050 Paris Accord time frames. We don't have zero carbon fuels for aircraft, apart from very limited ethanol blends, and may never have at 100% level, and we dont have regenerative agriculture at scale and scaling it will not be quick or easy, and we dont have zero carbon cements, etcetera. So we have to look at how much we reduce our relevant personal consumption, at a point in time. It will vary over time obviously."
Do you disagree? If so why?
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One Planet Only Forever at 02:19 AM on 17 August 2020Why children must emit eight times less CO2 than their grandparents
There are many news items about regenerative farming.
This CBC item is the latest I have come across "With better soil, farmers can fight climate change, make agriculture more sustainable".
The written article summarizes the longer radio conversation.
An important point made is that changing to regenerative farming is helpful, but the reduction of CO2 benefit eventually ends. So rapidly reducing the burning of fossil fuels is still required. Stopping rain forest destruction and stopping industrial farming are important helpful steps, but they are not lasting solutions.
The solution is for the highest consuming and impacting people to be low consuming and impacting people, and the richer they are the lower theiir consuption and impacts should be vbecxause richer people can afford to behave better.
That requires the combination of reduction of consuption that nigelj suggests along with corrrections of the consumption that occurs to only be sustainable activities like regenrative farming and renewable energy (not nuclear) done in a way that does not unsustainably consume materials, like the rare earth materials used in machines being fully recycled (no losses). It also requires external goiverning of the selfish among the population who will not responsibly self-govern to behave better than those who are less fortunate than they are.
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MA Rodger at 22:29 PM on 16 August 2020Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Preston Urka @192,
You raise the Barakah nuclear power plants and cite the "Pudding Argument" which I set out up-thread as a way to assess the usefulness of nuclear as a technology to address AGW. (Thus for nuclear, 'the proof of the pudding is in the eating'. If nuclear were a useful means, where are these nuclear power plants that will be preventing AGW? This given it takes considerable time to build them and we are fast running out of the carbon budget which would limit AGW.) Note the "Pudding Argument" is more than a question of how quickly a nuclear power plant can be built and be operational. And also note that (as reported by the BBC 2/8/20) Barakah1 has solely "achieved its first criticality ... an important milestone towards commercial operations and generating clean energy." It is not yet "on-line".Perhaps the "Pudding Argument" (and nuclear's failure to meet it) requires a little clarity.
According to Wikithing, global electricity consumption was 19,500TWh in 2013, up from 12,100TWh in 2000 or an annual increase of 3.7% which would equal 721TWh/y based on the 2013 figure. (The Wikithing page also gives global final energy consumption figures which 2012-17 increased 1.6%/y or 1,800TWh/y based on 2017.)
According to IAEA-PRIS globally there are 54 reactors under construction (including the 4 Barakah reactors) with a combined capacity of 57,441MW. That would provide an additional 450TWh of nuclear (assuming a generous 90% Load Factor and ignoring old nuclear plants being shut down). With a build-time of 10 years for these new nuclear plant, this would suggest an extra 45TWh/y nuclear capacity or 6% of the growth in global electricty consumption (or 2.5% of the growth in final energy consumption). This suggests this new-build nuclear capacity would be insufficient to maintain nuclear's percentage contribution to global energy use (4% Primary so perhaps 6% Final) let alone actually contribute to reducing carbon emissions from FF use.The conclusion is that the present-build nuclear plant are not going to make a ha'p'orth of difference to reducing carbon emissions and given any future nuclear plants yet-to-start-construction will be at least a decade in the building and that there is no sign of any significant increase in the number of such nuclear plants being considered, I cannot but conclude that the nuclear contribution to tackling AGW has failed the "Pudding Test".
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michael sweet at 20:34 PM on 16 August 2020Why children must emit eight times less CO2 than their grandparents
Nigelj:
Please cite reputable sources to support your wild claims.
I have provided you many references that show it is possible to generate enough renewable energy to power the entire economy. Red Baron has provided references that show it is possible to reduce cfarbon emissions from agriculture.
Moderator Response:[BL] Please try to avoid inflammatory language, so we don't end up in another flame war.
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nigelj at 12:45 PM on 16 August 2020Why children must emit eight times less CO2 than their grandparents
I think we need to build sustainable systems, and I never said otherwise. But I think sustainable systems are highly unlikely to be sufficient to meet Paris 2050 time frames and so while we build them we also need to look harder at our per capita consumption of various things, and that means having some precise quantitative goals or its just meaningless.
Most climate organisations where I live promote reducing consumption of various things. Im not suggesting the sort of crazy stuff, and self flaggelating stuff M Morre came out with in his planet of the humans movie, but we can do some things. Looks like RB and MS are in fantasy land, or are looking for a free lunch :)
Moderator Response:[BL] Please try to avoid inflammatory language, so we don't end up in another flame war.
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One Planet Only Forever at 11:45 AM on 16 August 2020Why children must emit eight times less CO2 than their grandparents
Regarding my earlier comments. They are meant to establish an understanding that, of course, is difficult to practically achieve by each person responsibly managing their individual budget (or each person being audited). As nigelj and Red Baron have been presenting Government over-sight and leadership action is required.
The people wealthier than the zero-carbon level of wealth can be monitored and audited individually with the oversight of national audits being performed by an international organization.
The lower levels of wealth would be harder to manage individually. What would make more sense is for nations and each of their regions to be assigned total carbon budgets based on the wealth levels and distribution within each regional population. The total impacts from the region would be monitored. And evaluators would investigate the evidence of measurable efforts to meet the intent of getting better behaviour from the wealthier people. Possible measures include comparing carbon impacts from registered vehicle use and home energy use with level of wealth with significant deterrent penalties for wealthier people if their impacts are higher than less wealthy people (competition to be lower impacting).
Regarding the ways for people to better understand how they can be less harmful and more helpful (in addition to the nigelj and Red Baron discussion on the issue), one simple action is for people to stop any recreational activity that involves fossil fuel use. Another is of course for people to be made aware of the better food options with measures implemented to make the better options less expensive than the currently developed popular and profitable food choices.
A last point is regarding the inter-generational reality of impacts. The lack of responsible corrective actions through the past 30 years has created the much more daunting challenge that the current day global community faces. And it has caused the harmful inequity of what the younger generation will be able to do (and, of course, there is regional inequity due to regions getting wealthy from harmful activity that affects regions that do not benefit).
It may be helpful to have retroactive penalties for wealthier and more influential people who misled and misinformed populations through the past 30 years. As a minimum, richer nations with leadership members who misled about the matter should face retro-active penalties as a deterrent to continuation of that harmful activity.
And penalties could even be considered for people who Optimistically promoted the idea that no corrections of behaviour were required because growing economic wealth with enlightenment would naturally produce the required solution through new technological developments that would be popular and profitable.
Necessity can powerfully drive innovation. And imposing restrictions and corrections that are unpopular, especially ones that are unpopular with the wealthiest, could be a very powerful motivation for helpful sustainable innovation.
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michael sweet at 10:26 AM on 16 August 2020Why children must emit eight times less CO2 than their grandparents
Red Baron @2,
I was very pleased to see a post from you that I completely agree with!!
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One Planet Only Forever at 09:21 AM on 16 August 2020Why children must emit eight times less CO2 than their grandparents
Clarifying and expanding my comment @4:
Though the shape of the distribution from poorest to richest is open to debate, there must be a constant decline in carbon budget as wealth increases.
Also, the point of zero-carbon budget is debatable, but it probably should not be a higher value than wealth of 100 million Euros. And an additional requirement could be a minimum level of 'truly negative carbon impact' for everyone with wealth higher than the zero point, with the required minimum negative increasing as wealth increases.
Thomas Piketty's recent book "Capital and Ideology" sets out a detailed basis for understanding the harmful propensity for inequity to grow. He also provides brackets for wealth to help clarify the problem of inequity.
Brackets could be 10% groupings of the bottom portion of the population personal wealth (all quite poor so not much difference between the brackets) and then 5% for each wealthier grouping up to 90%, then 1% brackets up to 99% and 0.1% brackets for the remaining wealthiest. That would allow a more limited number of 'Carbon budget' numbers to be applied rather than a painfully rigorous individual evaluation. That would be:
- 5 at 10% each for the poorest (lowest wealth 50%)
- 8 at 5% for the combined lower-mid-upper middle class (40% total)
- 9 at 1% (9% total)
- 10 at 0.1%
The important understanding is that all of the wealthier people need to behave better and be more helpful than the poorer people. Self-governing by individuals to limit selfish temptations would be the best solution. But some individuals will require external governing because of a lack of interest in being helpful (something that a wealthier person cannot logically be excused for compared to a poorer person).
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One Planet Only Forever at 08:09 AM on 16 August 2020Why children must emit eight times less CO2 than their grandparents
A more appropriate way of dividing the carbon budget would be to make it inversely proportional to wealth - allow zero carbon budget for the wealthiest people and give the highest carbon budget to the poorest people.
Of course the shape of the distribution could be debated. But the richest should not get any of the carbon budget. In fact, it could be argued that in addition to having to prove they are worthy of being the richest by setting the examples of how to live truly carbon-neutral, the very richest may also be required to assist the least fortunate develop to sustainable better living, helping to advance them faster so that they do not use up their carbon budget, especially if those richest grew up priviledged because of the carbon causing acquisitions of wealth and pleasue by their families.
That would be difficult, but doing the right thing should be expected to be harder rather than cheaper, easier or quicker.
Also note that this methodology should not be averaged into Nations with National Averages. Such averaging could hide the harmful inequities that could easily exist and be defended by the richest within any nation.
That would require an effective Global monitoring and enforcement system, something that the richest fight viciously against with appeals to Nationalism and the appealing demands for Freedom of Nations and people to do as they please (as long as it pleases the richest).
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nigelj at 15:47 PM on 15 August 2020Why children must emit eight times less CO2 than their grandparents
Red Baron @2, there are a couple of problems with your ideas. Most places dont have much zero carbon electricity and are unlikely to hit 100% before 2050 Paris Accord time frames. We don't have zero carbon fuels for aircraft, apart from very limited ethanol blends, and may never have at 100% level, and we dont have regenerative agriculture at scale and scaling it will not be quick or easy, and we dont have zero carbon cements, etcetera. So we have to look at how much we reduce our relevant personal consumption, at a point in time. It will vary over time obviously.
Not saying its easy to calculate, and it will vary depending on place and generation systems etcetera, and it cant be punishing, but its possible to calculate. It will have to be an intelligent guesstimate based on what technology can reasonably be expected to solve. Its called reducing your personal carbon footprint. Refer to the IPCC reports for some details and ideas.
And the problems can't all be solved simply by making pain free substitutions. Sometimes its about consuming less. Its not me saying this. Its what we are being told to do by the expert groups. So I dont see how you have rebutted what I said. People need some idea of how much to do, as well as what to do, surely?
And I didnt "propose" any guidelines. I referred to ideas typically promoted by the IPCC and various expert bodies, to illustrate a point. "If" we are to fly less, surely we need guidance on just how much less with some specificity? If you dont like the "guidelines" take it up with those scientific bodies, not me.
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RedBaron at 13:21 PM on 15 August 2020Why children must emit eight times less CO2 than their grandparents
Nigelj,
What you are saying sounds great, but it is useless. It's not the amout of electricity you use, but rather how that electricity is produced that matters. Use all you need if it is produced by wind or solar.
Same goes for meat and veggies. It's not what you eat, but rather how that food was produced and transported/stored that matters. Local regenerative production of both meat and veggies can be done in a carbon negative manner. If it is, then eat all you want.
Guidelines like you propose assumes we can't actually fix the unsustainable systems that support our societies to sustainable systems. We can, and we must. This is why the changes you have called for are nearly impossible to implement and definately wont reverse AGW.
Carbon budgets are not for individuals. They are a way for policy makers to gage timelines for rebuilding there infrastructure to support sustainable systems.
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nigelj at 09:02 AM on 15 August 2020Why children must emit eight times less CO2 than their grandparents
So you calculate your carbon budget. Its going to be a very difficult exercise for the average person to take this number and work out the implications for making lifestyle changes. I would wager that virtually nobody is going to do this, let alone get it right. So what is the point of this carbon brief article?
It would be more useful for the experts to give people a lifestyle prescription budget. You actually have to spell out what cars they can drive, what household appliances to own, where they should set thermostats, how many kms they can fly each year, how many grams of meat per day is acceptabale, etcetera. Obviously it would be for some mythical average person but it creates a starting point, and individuals can adjust things.
Just saying fly less, eat less meat and eat more greens doesn't mean a lot. You have to get precise and quantitative. Otherwise most of the population will have no idea what's really expected of them.
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Eclectic at 18:25 PM on 14 August 2020Spreading rock dust on fields could remove vast amounts of CO2 from air
Daveburton @17 , the Moderators at SkS are typically rather sparing in "striking out or striking through" plain nonsense (such as your CO2 comment in #10 ).
Alas, the Moderators at WUWT are even more sparing : have a look at the comments columns at WUWT ~ where 80 or 90% of comments would get the chop, if moderation were applied by the criterion of common sense.
Dave, you have misunderstood the Moderator's response at #10 . He was not asking for a Gish Gallop. Implicit was the request (in accordance with the Modus Operandi here at SkS ) that you select the individual topics where you think the mainstream science is faulty or tied to poorly-pragmatic conclusions. (And contrary to your "models" comment, the pragmatic conclusions are based on ordinary physics & common sense ~ reinforced by the paleo evidence. None of this "61 floors and okay so far" business. The "models" projections/estimations may or may not give further insights into the climate processes & possibilities . . . but the models are definitely not the foundation of climate science. )
So, please select one individual topic which you believe is "wronged" ~ and discuss that one in the most appropriate thread here at SkS. And when that topic has been suitably discussed/resolved . . . then select your No. 2 choice, and find the right thread for that. And so on.
Good luck. (But it seems you are unaware of the sensitivity of maize yield, to heat waves.) And you may be in danger of becoming a skeptic (and thus with little chance of "life" on the WUWT blogsite.)
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daveburton at 16:20 PM on 14 August 2020Spreading rock dust on fields could remove vast amounts of CO2 from air
Eclectic, I agree that it's drifting from the core topic, into a discussion of the key assumption behind the core topic, but the Mod asked me for it, so I obliged.
What do you imagine resembles "cherry-picking" in my response to him? I tried to avoid anything which could be considered cherry-picking.
I showed him the highest and lowest temperature indexes. I showed him the effects of eCO2 on the most important C3 and C4 crops. I showed him the best sea-level measurement record in the biggest ocean, which has a very typical trend. I showed him both hurricanes and tornadoes. Etc, etc. What do you think I omitted?
He asked a very broad question. He asked me to provide "creditable evidence, preferably peer-reviewed publication" in support of my contention that rising CO2 levels aren't a problem.
To thoroughly answer that would require a full cost-benefit analysis!
That's obviously not doable here. But even to quantitatively address the question of whether or not rising CO2 levels are a problem requires an examination of both costs and benefits. So I touched on all the major supposed costs, and also on the major benefits. I tried to answer his question, as best I could, without writing a whole book, and while providing credible references for every claim, as he requested.
I relied on measured evidence, rather than speculative studies based on models, because, in science, measurements are much, much stronger evidence than modeling. Computer model outputs are just calculations: at their best representing the consequences of robust hypothesis, at their worst representing bugs — and usually, actually, somewhere in-between.Moderator Response:[DB] Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can and will be rescinded if the posting individual continues to treat adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Moderating this site is a tiresome chore, particularly when commentators repeatedly submit offensive, off-topic posts, Gish Gallops or intentionally misleading comments and graphics or simply make things up. We really appreciate people's cooperation in abiding by the Comments Policy, which is largely responsible for the quality of this site.
Finally, please understand that moderation policies are not open for discussion. If you find yourself incapable of abiding by these common set of rules that everyone else observes, then a change of venues is in the offing.Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter, as no further warnings shall be given.
Off-topic snipped; the Gish Gallop comment was removed. -
Eclectic at 15:39 PM on 14 August 2020Spreading rock dust on fields could remove vast amounts of CO2 from air
Very entertaining, Daveburton @14. It's exactly why I enjoy viewing the Motivated Reasoning gymnastics by the regulars at WUWT.
Especially your bit where: "we've raised atmospheric CO2 levels for 61 consecutive years". Reminds me of the old joke about the optimist who fell off the top of the Empire State Building . . . "61 floors and okay so far". (I am sure you've heard something like it.)
Such cherry-picking. (I note cherries are always in season at WUWT.) Though you haven't yet played your ultimate argument ~ the Conspiracy of all the world's scientists, and their faked data. And all that faked paleo data, too.
But you will probably get around to your penultimate argument :- "Forest . . . what forest?"
Still, Dave, this is all a tad off-topic for this particular thread. Find one of the old threads for this old stuff. (And why are you coming out with such old stuff . . . right now? Is it a sign that a seed of genuine skeptical doubt is starting to germinate in your brain? Beware !! )
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daveburton at 15:34 PM on 14 August 2020Spreading rock dust on fields could remove vast amounts of CO2 from air
Correction:
I wrote:
"So, the 0.4 to 0.9 °C of warming (associated with six decades of CO2 level increase) caused, on average, only about a 20 to 68 km growing zone shift (12 - 42 miles)."
That's wrong. It should have been:
"So, the 0.4 to 0.9 °C of warming (associated with six decades of CO2 level increase) caused, on average, only about a 40 to 135 km growing zone shift (24 - 84 miles)."
Sorry! -
daveburton at 14:27 PM on 14 August 2020Spreading rock dust on fields could remove vast amounts of CO2 from air
I said that rising CO2 levels aren't a problem, and Mod struck it out and wrote, "If you want to make assertions, then you back them with creditable evidence, preferably peer-reviewed publication."
I'm surprised that you want me to do that, Mod, but I'm happy to oblige.
Since you requested it, I hope you won't just delete it.
Moderator Response:[BL]
(Off-topic Gish Gallop deleted)
You are not new to Skeptical Science, although you have not posted here for a while.
Challenging you to provide references for a claim is not an invitation to ignore the Comments policy, which states that comments need to be on-topic. Should you wish to post your comments on appropriate threads, please use the Search tool to find one (or more).
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Eclectic at 11:24 AM on 14 August 2020Spreading rock dust on fields could remove vast amounts of CO2 from air
Bob Loblaw @12 ,
your criticism is a bit harsh . . . but fair ! Daveburton's "No problem with CO2" was the sort of statement that belongs in the pseudo-science commentary found at WattsUpWithThat blogsite.
Don't get me wrong : as a semi-regular reader at WUWT , I do see occasional bits of real science in the comments columns there (most notably by the excellently-scientific Nick Stokes) ~ but most of the comments are crazy-extremist political stuff mixed with fruitcake anti-science. Still, it's kind of entertaining : especially the utter nonsense there coming from Mr Monckton or the half-nonsense coming from Mr May et alia.
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Bob Loblaw at 10:17 AM on 14 August 2020Spreading rock dust on fields could remove vast amounts of CO2 from air
"...and even if rising CO2 levels were a problem (they aren't)..."
What a broad, sweeping, unjustified and incorrect statement.
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Eclectic at 10:16 AM on 14 August 2020Spreading rock dust on fields could remove vast amounts of CO2 from air
Quite right, Daveburton. Producing/distributing rock dust sounds a very inefficient method of reducing the CO2 problem, at least with present technology.
Perhaps by 2100 the technology of renewable energy will be advanced enough to do it properly ~ but I'm figuring by then it would just be a part of a larger purpose of agricultural soil development. Even so, it would be only one component of the overall effort to get CO2 down to a sensible 350ppm.
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daveburton at 08:25 AM on 14 August 2020Spreading rock dust on fields could remove vast amounts of CO2 from air
"Treating about half of farmland could capture 2bn tonnes of CO2 each year" — that's only about 5% of current anthropogenic emissions.
Plus, strip-mining basalt, grinding it to dust, trucking it to the hinterlands, and spreading it on fields, all would require the use of fossil fuels, which would release CO2.
Even if those additional CO2 releases would be less than the CO2 removed from the atmosphere (which is unclear), and even if rising CO2 levels were a problem (they aren't), this proposal would not be a solution.Moderator Response:[PS] Blatant sloganeering. A reminder (again) of the comment policy operating on this site. If you want to make assertions, then you back them with creditable evidence, preferably peer-reviewed publication.
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One Planet Only Forever at 06:16 AM on 14 August 2020Book review: Bad science and bad arguments abound in 'Apocalypse Never' by Michael Shellenberger
postkey @10,
Indeed that is an example. The other references I listed provide more details to help better understand why and how that harmful unsustainable result develops, not just in the USA.
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Postkey at 18:38 PM on 13 August 2020Book review: Bad science and bad arguments abound in 'Apocalypse Never' by Michael Shellenberger
"The best that can be done is to develop and present what appears to be the best explanations of what can be observed to be going on . . . "
Like this?
“Multivariate analysis indicates that economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while average citizens and mass-based interest groups have little or no independent influence. The results provide substantial support for theories of Economic-Elite Domination and for theories of Biased Pluralism, but not for theories of Majoritarian Electoral Democracy or Majoritarian Pluralism. “
www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/S1537592714001595 -
One Planet Only Forever at 01:17 AM on 12 August 2020Book review: Bad science and bad arguments abound in 'Apocalypse Never' by Michael Shellenberger
The follow-up to my earlier comments regarding this book can be distilled to primarily referring to the following informative books:
- "The Age of Sustainable Development", by Jeffrey D. Sachs, Columbia University Press, 2015 (also MOOC with the same name).
- "Reasons and Persons", by Derek Parfit, Oxford University Press, 1984
- "Capital and Ideology", by Thomas Piketty, Harvard University Press, 2020 (original French book published in 2019 by Éditions du Seuil)
- "Manufacturing Consent" Edward S. Herman, New York: Pantheon Books, 1988 updated 2002. (Movie of same name 1992)
- "Propaganda in the Information Age", by Alan MacLeod, Routledge (Taylor and Francis Group), 2019 (Update regarding the "Manufacturing Consent" Propaganda Model)
This set of references establish understanding that applies to a vast range of subjects, not just climate change.
It is possible to understand the unacceptability of the stories made-up by the likes of Shellenberger, Lomborg, Moncton regarding actions required to limit harmful climate change impacts on future generations (and people like Pinker regarding other issues who defend the developed economic system and the glory of technology as the solution for everything). And that explanation also applies to almost all resistance to the understanding of the need for major systemic corrections to achieve and improve on the Sustainable Development Goals. And it is undeniable that the best possible future for humanity requires achieving and improving on all of the Sustainable Development Goals, the sooner the better. Read "The Age of Sustainable Development" by Jeffrey D. Sachs to obtain a broader understanding of how harmful and unsustainable the current developed activity of humanity has become.
A major problem is the pursuit of knowledge for personal benefit, which is an aspect of the problematic pursuit of personal benefit (Self Interest). It is almost impossible to research the motives of people who present stories (any and all information presentation is storytelling - even science research reports). The best that can be done is to develop and present what appears to be the best explanations of what can be observed to be going on resulting in the best science, news reporting, fiction, documentaries, opinions, etc.
In "Reasons and Persons" Derek Parfit presents a robust evaluation concluding that allowing self interests to govern behaviours cannot be expected to produce good sustainable results. In "Capital and Ideology" Thomas Piketty presents the history of unsustainable incorrect and misleading self interested storytelling that is made up by the winners of wealth and power. And in "Manufacturing Consent" Edward S. Herman presents the Propaganda Model which explains how free market systems can develop harmful misleading incorrect storytelling to excuse the harmfully incorrect desires and actions of the wealthy and powerful. In "Propaganda in the Information Age" Alan MacLeod presents an update regarding the Propaganda Model showing that the internet and social media have not corrected the problem of harmfully misleading storytelling.
Unsustainable and harmful ways of doing things are almost always quicker, easier and cheaper than the sustainable less harmful alternatives. Cost as a primary driver of deciding what is liked (popular and profitable) makes it harder to limit the harm done by pursuers of personal benefit, including making it harder to limit the harmful making-up of stories that excuse unsustainable and harmful activities, increasingly hard to do as things become more popular and profitable.
Climate change is only one of many examples of that conflict. That conflict exists regarding almost every action that would help achieve and improve the Sustainable Development Goals. And that conflict includes academic-type stories being made-up that are not accurate helpful explanations of what is really going on or the required helpful harm-reducing corrections of what has developed popularity or profitability.
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nigelj at 12:06 PM on 11 August 2020Cranky Uncle cartoons available as PPT slides
"A grinding "Gish gallop" of grubby governance."
Nice alliteration. Try a cascade of complete c**p.
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michael sweet at 11:24 AM on 11 August 2020We've been having the wrong debate about nuclear energy
Philippe,
I am sorry, I linked the same page as you. In the upper right corner is a link for a PDF of the paper (it took me a while to find the link).
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michael sweet at 11:21 AM on 11 August 2020We've been having the wrong debate about nuclear energy
Philippe Chantreau:
I found a link to a free PDF of teh Vidal paper from Research gate.
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michael sweet at 11:05 AM on 11 August 2020We've been having the wrong debate about nuclear energy
Nechimide:
The Vidal paper you cite is a commentary that cites previously published information. As I read the paper, it states that the materials will be available but we need to carefully plan for such large amounts of materials use.
The abstract of the Vidal et al commentary reads in full:
"Renewable energy requires infrastructures built with metals whose extraction requires more and more energy. More mining is unavoidable, but increased recycling, substitution and careful design of new high-tech devices will help meet the growing demand." My italics.
This indicates to me that renewable supporters are trying to plan for possible future problems. Vidal et al do not say that they think there will not be enough materials to build out. They say we have to plan carefully.
Scientists are concerned about a lot of non-renewable materials that might run short if everyone wants to live like Western culture. Lithium for batteries and phosphate for fertilizer come to mind. Careful planning will be needed for many materials.
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Doug Bostrom at 09:53 AM on 11 August 2020Cranky Uncle cartoons available as PPT slides
Unfortunately Pruitt's replacement Wheeler has floated above scandal, allowing him to proceed with "Bizarro Superman" EPA.
Today, "rolling back" (degrading) regulation of methane loss from liquid and gas petroleum extraction. Last year, paving the path to the Pebble Mine at Bristol Bay. In between: examples too numerous to keep track of— which of course is the general MO of the administration in all spheres.
A grinding "Gish gallop" of grubby governance.
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Philippe Chantreau at 01:05 AM on 11 August 2020We've been having the wrong debate about nuclear energy
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/258514690_Metals_for_a_low-carbon_society
This page seems to contain all of the Vidal 2013 paper. It does not contain anything like the language in #18 above. It shows charts of the projected total output of some raw materials under the WWF energy production scenario; however, it does not differentiate what proportion of these materials will be exclusively devoted to renewable energy infrastructure vs the rest of raw material consumption. The paper does not seem to contain projections of future demand under different scnenarios, even though it is to be expected that demand will rise under any scenario, even those including low use of renewables.
It is therefore not possible from the data in the paper to draw the following conclusion: "According the the Vidal et al. paper, renewable energy projects (by WWF in the example) would consume the entire annual copper, concrete and steel production by 2035 at the latest, hoard all currently produced aluminum by around 2030, and use up all the glass before 2020."
The paper does contain some interesting stuff and their figures certainly merit attention and further study. They make a compelling point for recycling metals and mining locally with modern methods.
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Philippe Chantreau at 00:14 AM on 11 August 2020We've been having the wrong debate about nuclear energy
The Vidal paper is unfortunately behind a paywall. I'm not entirely sure about the characterization offered by Nechimide, because the short abstract linked at #18 gives a much less pessimistic view:
"More mining is unavoidable, but increased recycling, substitution and careful design of new high-tech devices will help meet the growing demand."
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Daniel Bailey at 22:53 PM on 10 August 2020We've been having the wrong debate about nuclear energy
Even upon a superficial review, since glass is still available, this claim is invalidated.
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Nechimide at 19:58 PM on 10 August 2020We've been having the wrong debate about nuclear energy
@14
"I linked the incorrect Jacobson paper on materials for renewable energy. It is actually Jacobson 2011. He shows that all materials for a renewable energy system exist. I believe this paper has never been challenged. Please provide data to support your deliberately false claim that not enough materials exist for a renewable system."
Vidal et al (2013) has for more recent data on renewables' material requirements. Briefing here with original graphs and comparisons with WWF’s prediction for wind and solar energy production reaching 25 000 TWh by 2050 (I've read the original Nature paper and the brief appears to be correct).
According the the Vidal et al. paper, renewable energy projects (by WWF in the example) would consume the entire annual copper, concrete and steel production by 2035 at the latest, hoard all currently produced aluminum by around 2030, and use up all the glass before 2020. And WWF plans still have a lot room for biomass, which is not renewable in the strictest sense. -
nigelj at 08:48 AM on 10 August 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #32
OPOF @2, fwiw I think Pope Francis is the best Pope the church has had.
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One Planet Only Forever at 11:36 AM on 9 August 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #32
nigelj,
Pope Francis may not be a scientist, but he is a Jesuit which means he is open minded about correcting beliefs based on evidence that justifies correction of established beliefs. In that way he is like a scientist, but is constrained by popular opinion among his flock.
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nigelj at 08:53 AM on 9 August 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #32
"The encyclical was seen in some camps as an attack on capitalism, and it made some Catholic Republican leaders squirm, like former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who in 2015 observed that the pope "is not a scientist."
The pope is not a scientist. Yes Mr Bush, we know that. The Pope is not claiming to be a scientist. He is not making up his own science. He is not twisting or interpreting the science. Hes quoting the majority view in the scientific community. Plenty of consensus studies show what the vast majority of scientists think documented here.
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michael sweet at 20:32 PM on 8 August 2020Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Preston Urka:
Your posts are too long to reply to all the misleading errors and half truths. I will reply to the biggest ones.
This Al Jazeera article gives some background on the Barakah plant. It appears a lot of people are not happy with how the plant has been built.
Eclectic above was concerned about terrorists. The Barakah plants are built without the "Generation III Defence-In-Depth reinforcements to the containment building to shield against a radiological release resulting from a missile or fighter jet attack." They also do not have a "core catcher" to contain a meltdown as occured at Fukushima. It would be illegal to build these plants in the USA or EU.
Why leave out crritical safety features? To save money.
In addition part of the reason they are 3 years behind schedule is that hundreds of counterfeit control valves and other components were installed. Apparently the Korean suppliers routinely fake certifications. All four of the containment buildings have suffered severe cracking. Perhaps the people who approved the lack of protection from terrorists think the repairs are good enough. Who would want to live near them?
On the issue of timeliness, these plants were supposed to connect to the grid in 2017. Being only 3 years late on a 5 year build (assuming they connect to the grid before 2021) is fast for nuclear.
The budget for the plants is secret so it is difficult to determine the true cost.
As far as the pudding argument, these plants were ordered in 2009 when nuclear was cheaper than solar, as long as you do not install a core catcher. Since then
"Between 2009 and 2019, utility-scale average solar photovoltaic costs fell 89 percent and wind fell 43 percent, while nuclear jumped 26 percent, according to an analysis by the financial advisory and asset manager Lazard"
KEPCO, the contractor building the plant has exactly zero (0) orders for additional plants. Looks like no-one enjoys pudding with fake valves.
Meanwhile the UAE is installing larger and larger amounts of solar.
I will not reply to your calculations except to note that you count only the build time for nuclear while counting the planning, biddiing and build times for solar. They initially installed small solar systems as pilot plants. Currently they are installing larger and larger solar units. No additional nuclear is planned.
Large installations like nuclear and coal power plants require at least 10-15 years to plan and build. Renewable energy has only been the cheapest option for about 5 years. Power plants planned more than 5 years ago are still being completed. Completing a unit planned 11 years ago does not mean they are competitive now. Coal and nculear builds world wide are being cancelled because now renewable is cheapest.
Suggesting a plant announced in 2009 answers the pudding argument shows how barren the nuclear argument is.
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Eclectic at 07:20 AM on 8 August 2020Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Preston, thank you for that information. (btw, I myself was not so much concerned about "proliferation" per se, but rather the underlying vulnerabilities.)
Love your quote : "a problem that can be solved with money is not a problem". Petrodollars or no petrodollars. And in my mind's eye, I can see the response by every economist ever born ~ the living ones are frothing at the mouth, and the dead ones are spinning in their graves. Cruel of you, Preston. ;-)
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Preston Urka at 04:17 AM on 8 August 2020Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
There was a post a while back that solar on residential rooftops and use of useless deserts for solar PV was great. Here is a note from use of residential rooftops in useless deserts!
Basically, they moved the panels off the rooftops to the ground as it is easier to clean them.
This is what I find hard dealing with super-pro-wind-and-solar people; you guys don't really think about the practicalities. I am pro wind and solar, but I am not such a starry-eyed optimist that I refuse to see the real issues involved in adopting them. In contrast, the only real issue with nuclear is the high capital costs of construction. However, a problem that can be solved with money is not a problem, imho.
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Preston Urka at 04:15 AM on 8 August 2020Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Proliferation Progress (for Eclectic's concerns) via Barakah
Although the UAE had ratified the NPT in 1995, it strengthened the world's non-proliferation efforts when adopting civilian nuclear power by:- Ratified a safeguards agreement with the IAEA in 2003
- Joined the IAEA Convention on Nuclear Safety in 2009
- Joined the Joint Convention on the Safety of Spent Fuel Management and on the Safety of Radioactive Waste Management in 2009
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Preston Urka at 04:14 AM on 8 August 2020Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
Been quite busy lately, but I ran across a note on the Barakah plant which lead me to a fantastic comparison of nuclear build vs. wind/solar build, with shades of the Pudding Argument.
The UAE is transitioning from an electricity generation system nearly 100% powered by gas power plants (2010) to 100% powered by low-carbon resources (2050). This background is what makes this nuclear vs. wind/solar perfect - there is no installed base on either side.
Some might argue that the UAE's plan is flawed, but I give deference to the politicians and bureaucrats who are taking care of their country. We should assume they have good intentions for their country and have embarked on a proper plan to do so.
In comparison, I find it hard to say the same of Germany - the Germans have clearly made progress towards their goal of high penetration of wind and solar. However, the German goal has historically not been a goal of reducing GHG emissions and it is clear the Germans are not making much progress in reductions. The Germans have knowingly built more coal plants and knowingly plan to continue to run them until at least 2038, despite the known deaths and disease coal causes, in addition to GHG emissions.
Somewhat damaging to the Pudding Argument is the UAE decision to go ahead with nuclear - remember this is the site of the .03USD/kWh solar PV bid in 2016 - my conclusion is the nuclear pudding is fairly tasty!
With that context, back to Barakah:
Barakah 1 start: 2012 online: 2020 8y
Barakah 2 start: 2013 online: ~2021
Barakah 3 start: 2014 online: ~2022
Barakah 4 start: 2015 online: ~2023
nameplate capacity: 5380 MW (1345 MW each) over 11y
75% capacity factor (using APR-1400 c.f. from Shin Kori)
25% of United Arab Emirates electricity (from 2023 onward)- Barakah NPP
- Build Time 11 y
- individually 1,105 GWh/y
- collectively 3,215 GWh/y
- percentage-wise 2.27 %/y
UAE's Wind/Solar progress
Dubai Clean Energy Strategy has to goal (from start of 2013? or 2015? year is unclear, but we will use 2015 as is more favorable to Wind/Solar):- 7% from 2015 to 2020: 1.40 %/y
- 25% from 2015 to 2030: 1.67 %/y
- 7 years slower than same generation as from nuclear
- 75% from 2015 to 2050: 2.14 %/y
Note the solar/wind rates are all slower. GWh/y is harder to calculate as I don't have a list of the proposed solar/wind projects over the next 35 years. Nor do I have a good list of the existing plants, but presumably 7% is reliable, so you can back it out.
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John Hartz at 01:11 AM on 8 August 2020We've been having the wrong debate about nuclear energy
Suggested supplemental reading:
How to drive fossil fuels out of the US economy, quickly by David Roberts, Energy & Environment, Vox, Aug 6, 2020
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Bob Loblaw at 22:53 PM on 7 August 2020We've been having the wrong debate about nuclear energy
Michael, Nigel.
Both of you have a respected background of commenting here, and you're now both pleading to moderators. I am not a moderator, but perhaps you should both take a cool-down period and remember that you are not in a discussion with Preston Urka any more.
I'd hate to see either of you disappear from this forum, either from moderator action or your own volition. Put the buns down.
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prove we are smart at 21:11 PM on 7 August 2020Skeptical Science New Research for Week #31, 2020
Great, thanks for link-I'd forgotten how short lived water vapour is in our atmosphere. Sceptical Science has been so helpful for explaining to me the very basics to a more intimate understanding of AGW. A clued up moderator keeps everyone honest-good news with your new partners..
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