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Postkey at 07:15 AM on 22 July 2020Book review: Bad science and bad arguments abound in 'Apocalypse Never' by Michael Shellenberger
" . . . economic growth has been on a falling trajectory in America . . . "
Due to a rising ECoE (the Energy Cost of Energy)?
'The first principle is that all forms of economic output – literally all of the goods and services which comprise the ‘real’ economy – are products of energy.
Nothing of any economic value or utility can be supplied without using energy. . . .If you want a succinct answer to this question, it is that ECoE (the Energy Cost of Energy) is rising, relentlessly and exponentially. The exponential rate of increase in ECoE means that this cannot be cancelled out by linear increases in the aggregate amount of total or gross (pre-ECoE) energy that we can access. The resultant squeeze on surplus energy has been compounded by increasing numbers of people seeking to share the prosperity that this surplus provides.
As a result, prior growth in prosperity per person has gone into reverse. People have been getting poorer in most Western advanced economies (AEs) since the early 2000s. With the same fate now starting to overtake emerging market (EM) countries too, global prosperity has turned down. One way of describing this process is “de-growth”. ' -
william5331 at 06:57 AM on 22 July 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #29
Forest plantations with pyrolysis can be a great contributor to solving our Carbon dioxide emission problem
You build the wood into laminated beams, ply wood and so forth for the construction of multi story buildings and pyrolize the waste. This results in multi levels of benefit.
1/ The wooden buildings represent a sequestering of Carbon in a long lasting form (and these buildings are natuarally earthquake resistant)
2/ The alkanes produced by the pyrolysis displaces some of the oil we have to extract from the ground
3/ The charcoal produced is beneficial for agricultural lands and sequesters more carbon - long term.
4/ Wooden buildings displace Concrete which is also a source of C pollution.
5/ Tne new trees we plant take up carbon at a rapid rate due to the vigorous growth of young trees.
Not the whole solution but one more string for our bow.
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nigelj at 06:53 AM on 22 July 2020Book review: Bad science and bad arguments abound in 'Apocalypse Never' by Michael Shellenberger
"Shellenberger... seeks to promote the Cornucopian view that environmental problems can be eliminated if we’d just pursue aggressive economic growth"
This is nonsensical, because developed countries already clearly have enough wealth to spare to mitigate environmental problems without significant compromises to living standards. Just wasing less resources would go a long way to helping. They dont need more economic growth, instead they need to re-prioritise. The argument has more validity for poor countries.
And like Ubrew says economic growth has been on a falling trajectory in America (you can get trends on this on tradingeconomics.com). Realists understand this is likely to be permanent, so we have to deal with the situation we have.
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BaerbelW at 05:00 AM on 22 July 2020The Debunking Handbook: now freely available for download
Barış C. Kaştaş created a Turkish translation of The Debunking Handbook which has been added to the list of available translations.
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ubrew12 at 03:46 AM on 22 July 2020Book review: Bad science and bad arguments abound in 'Apocalypse Never' by Michael Shellenberger
"Shellenberger... seeks to promote the Cornucopian view that environmental problems can be eliminated if we’d just pursue aggressive economic growth" America has pursued such growth since WWII ended, with no regard to its central environmental consequence: climate change. Yet, in that 70 year interval, America's annual GDP growth rate has fallen, from 3.5% in 1948 to 2% in the last decade (see 2nd graph in this article). The pursuit of 'aggressive economic growth' has led in a straight line to moribund growth together with absolutely no progress on climate change. After 70 years of this, it's worthwhile questioning Shellenberger's central thesis, that the pursuit of economic growth alone will solve all our problems. Indeed, it appears it can't even solve the problem of economic growth.
The Fed will make up $10 trillion this year, and the deficit will hit $5 trillion, all to deal with a pandemic that Science warned was coming since 1918 (with potent reminders at least once a decade). So we see, in the pandemic, that ignoring Science can be horribly expensive, and can push economic growth into negative territory. 'Negative externalities' can have real consequences, despite their not being visible to our Market-based economy. In fact, because they are not visible. It's our job to make them visible, not the markets. And it's Shellenbergers job to bid us keep the blinders on.
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Preston Urka at 02:48 AM on 22 July 2020Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
One consistent current running through this blog topic is the wonderful peer-reviewed Abbott 2011 and 2012 papers. But they just are not of a high quality.
First, the two articles are pretty much the same.
Second, as sauerj's post at Should a Green New Deal include nuclear power? 00:29 AM on 24 April, 2019 points out, Abbott 2012 is an opinion piece, published in their Point of View features, which "The scope of this section ranges from opinions on the importance of particular new concepts or discoveries to discussion of educational and professional trends to personal positions and predictions on various technical topics." - opinions, discussion, personal positions - not peer reviewed science.
Third, lets go thru the underlying references of Abbott:
- "It can also be argued that nuclear power has a key role to play in meeting emissions targets (Brook, 2012) for mitigating climate change."
- Ok, so the first citation is 'here is an opinion, and here is the citation to that opinion'.
- It can be argued. Fine. Seems fairly innocuous.
- "A nuclear utopian goes much further and suggests that nuclear power can potentially supply the bulk of the world’s energy needs for many thousands of years to come and that perhaps a mix of renewables with nuclear power as the backbone supply is the long-term energy future (Manheimer, 2006)."
- Ok, so the second citation is 'here is an definition, and here is the citation to that definition'.
Now we know what a nuclear utopian is. Seems fairly innocuous. - "Currently, the total global power consumption is about 15 terawatts (EIA, 2011)."
- Ok, the third citation is data. Global power is .... Seems fairly innocuous.
- "Today there are about 430 commercial nuclear reactors worldwide (Schneider et al., 2012)."
- Ok, the fourth citation is more data. There are X number reactors. Seems fairly innocuous.
- "Taking into account not just the footprint of a nuclear power station but also its exclusion zone, associated enrichment plant, ore processing, and supporting infrastructure, Stanford's Mark Z. Jacobson (2009) has shown that each nuclear power plant draws upon a total land area of as much as 20.5 square kilometers."
- Ok, the fifth citation is more data. Seems fairly .... wait a minute, 20.5 km2? That is a lot of land. Nuclear is very dense, so the cognoscenti are immediately suspicious. Better check this citation.
In Abbott 2012, "Jacobson (2009)" refers to "Jacobson, MZ (2009) Review of solutions to global warming, air pollution, and energy security. Energy & Environmental Science 2: 148–173." I believe this is an electronic copy of that very paper: Jacobson (2009)
And let us see what Jacobson writes, section 6.4: "Estimates of the lands required for uranium mining and nuclear facility with a buffer zone are 0.06 ha yr GWh1 and 0.26 ha yr GWh1, respectively, and that for waste for a single sample facility is about 0.08 km2 [footnote] 31. For the average plant worldwide, this translates into a total land requirement per nuclear facility plus mining and storage of about 20.5 km2."
Let's look at footnote 31: D. V. Spitzley, and G. A. Keoleian, Life cycle environmental and economic assessment of willow biomass electricity: A comparison with other renewable and non-renewable sources, Report No. CSS04–05R, 2005, http://css.snre.umich.edu/css_doc/CSS04-05R.pdf. The link has changed, but this is where the report cannot be found CSS04-05R.pdf
What do you mean, cannot be found??? Why are you posting a link then?
Well, as the Univ. of Michigan states (in 2010, a year (and 5 days) before the first Abbott paper)
"LIFE CYCLE ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT OF WILLOW BIOMASS ELECTRICITY: A COMPARISON WITH OTHER RENEWABLE AND NON-RENEWABLE SOURCES
CSS PUBLICATION NUMBER: CSS04-05R
AUTHOR(S): David V. Spitzley Gregory A. Keoleian
ABSTRACT:
EDITOR's NOTE: This report is temporarily unavailable and will be posted again once a correction on a metric pertaining to the nuclear fuel cycle is made. - October 25, 2010."Naturally, I sent a note to the Univ. of Michigan, and they still haven't gotten around to their, um, shall we say retraction? and subsequent repost yet.
Basically, in Abbott's first claim, versus uncontested data, he starts lowering the paper's quality with a dodgy reference. Does this mean that all of Abbott 2011 or 2012 (where he repeats the claim at the beginning of the paper) is garbage? Or just that section?
Well, it certainly means that Abbott is not the most careful of researchers, and that at least one of his paper's major claims is suspect.
Also, my life is too short to go through the rest of Abbott pointing out the other opinions, poor research and sketchy logic. Maybe Abbott should write a proper paper which has less opinion-stated-as-fact, and more fact. Of course, it is fine if in his conclusion he states his opinion, but conflating the two really reduces the quality of this paper.
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Preston Urka at 02:03 AM on 22 July 2020Is Nuclear Energy the Answer?
The introduction for this blog topic states: "We have repeatedly asked for nuclear proponents to provide an article for this site which puts the case based on published science but so far we haven't had a taker."
I am a taker.
Using the Contact Us form, I submitted a request to provide a nuclear proponent's case for nuclear. On 21 June, 2020. Well, a month later, SkepticalScience hasn't even bothered with the courtesy of a reply - denial or acceptance.
One thing I mentioned in my note, is that I would not be locked into the Abbott paradigm - as I will explain in my next post.
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BaerbelW at 03:51 AM on 21 July 2020The Conspiracy Theory Handbook: Downloads and translations
The Last Week Tonight with John Oliver episode on July 19, 2020 was about COVID conspiracy theories and it briefly featured the Conspiracy Theory Handbook at the 10:40 mark!
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sauerj at 00:45 AM on 21 July 2020A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook
There is another major typo blunder in my post above, which totally screws up the sentence's meaning:
#2 in the Reasons to Stay section: "Certainly the self-amplification of this misinformation within MeWe FB will be stunted ..."Also: I think gerontocrat (@27) made an extremely astute point. Since the US election is only a short 3-1/2 months away, it makes total logical sense, before the election, to follow a path of evaluating and talking this over (including talking with other climate action groups), but to hold off any action until after the election.
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gerontocrat at 21:59 PM on 20 July 2020A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook
You may consider this post is political. My advice to Skeptical Science to continue doing what you are doing until November 5th. Then have another think abot it. Why?
Mark Zuckerberg is Facebook. What drives Zuckerberg is the search for revenue. Political influence is one of the tools in his toolbox, as it is with all big business wherever it is. So he leans towards Tump & the Republicans.
But Bloomberg News (& others) have commented on how Wall Street is looking more & more at Biden & the Democrats as the polls move in that direction.
If Biden wins, and especially if the Democrats get the Senate as well, then watch big business switch horses pdq. I believe so will Facebook. Perhaps it has started already (see comment on complaints by WUWT) ?
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prove we are smart at 20:23 PM on 20 July 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #29
I found this story about Greta and her fathers travel diary to be quite informative and interesting. I came across her travel story by accident and wondered why mainstream media hasn't reproduced it somewhere (maybe it has? ). I think this would wake up any fence sitters about many things, including the wonderful Miss Thunbergs motivations.
The mention of the United Nations Production Gap Report in the final chapter,( I believe an update for 2020 is due.) was an insight to the two faced nature of the fossil fuel industry..
https://time.com/5863684/greta-thunberg-diary-climate-crisis/
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nigelj at 19:05 PM on 20 July 2020Book review: Bad science and bad arguments abound in 'Apocalypse Never' by Michael Shellenberger
Skellenburgers wikipedia profile says hes a Mennonite ( a Christian Sect) and was an environmentalist, peace activist, has a diploma in peace studies. He also supported Hugo Chavez the socialist ruler of Venezuela. Nothing necessarilly wrong with any of that, but it suggests to me he may have a genuine concern for the plight of workers and the poor, and that he might be afraid of what the alleged costs of renewables, and decreases in carbon footprints might do to working classes and poor people. A bit like Lomberg, another delusional luke warmer. As far as Im aware he hasn't expressed this motivation but it fits.
This in turn may have lead Shellenburger to diminish the climate problem, attack renewables, and latch onto nuclear power as a simple solution that has allegedly low costs and no problems. The climate denialist rhetoric on climate science and renewables is clearly seductive for some people.
Of course Shellenburger is wrong about all of this. The climate problem is severe, and will hurt the poor in particular, renewables are now lower cost than coal and nuclear power, (according to the Lazard international energy analysis) and nobody is suggesting poor people go cold in winter or we heap all the problem on them. Not that I'm personally against nuclear power, there is room for a range of zero carbon solutions.
The people that promote renewables do not all promote endless growth. Another of Shellenburgers delusions.
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nigelj at 07:04 AM on 20 July 2020A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook
My take in a bit more detail and having read the comments: There appear to be a couple of main issues with facebook. 1)Micro targetting of ads and information that can reinforce climate denialism, and 2) facebooks poor fact checking, because facebook claim climate denialism articles are not news articles, they are opinion so they dont need fact checking.
Facebook show no signs of changing this behaviour, despite these issues being raised on various websites. Im assuming people have also lobbied facebook directly. The government hasn't intervened very much, presumably because its afraid of being seen to censor free speech and excessively interfering in how facebook do business in relation to micro targetting.
Fact checking opinion articles or dealing with complaints about them would be very time consuming for governments. Even if the public lobbied governments, it looks to me like they might be reluctant to act. Governmnets usually only get tough if its a question of safety, blatantly inaccurate news articles, and so on. I guess we could argue lies about climate change threaten the safety of humanity. Would that have potential, or is it too tenuous?
So things might only change if users leave facebook and thus start hurting their bottom line. However the problem is if only a few users leave it wont make a difference. You would need quite a big exodus. People like facebook, and the issues we see as a problem might not bother enough people, or they might not be smart enough to understand them. So the risk is a few leave, but 99% stay and so what would we have achieved?
I did leave facebook some time ago for a combination of reasons.
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bbrowett at 04:44 AM on 20 July 2020A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook
Perhaps I have a simple take on social media and Facebook involvement specifically. Mine take in the context of activism and influencing ... You need to make noise, you need supporters to make noise with you, most importantly, you need to build trust in your messaging and communicate with people who do not agree with you.
I use Facebook and other social media plateforms to connecct with people who need to hear the messages. Clearly, is activists leave social media we will be leaving the systems open to only those who have messages of denial, missinformation, and manipulation, i.e., propaganda of those who deny the problems or greenwash the problems.
I repost Skeptical Science content not because I need to content, but because many of the people who are connected to my profile do need to be nudged in the Skeptical Science direction.
There are too few good scientific resources already on Facebook. We need more ... We need more people reposting to counter the huge volume of misinfomation that is out there ...
Yes, Facebook needs reforming ... but just like the streets that we march down with placards ... We need those streets ... We need the public arenas to communicate. Those who would like to silence us would be more than happy to have Facebook for their own. -
John Mason at 04:39 AM on 20 July 2020A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook
Re: #19:
There are some workarounds that address some of your points, namely the browser plug-in, Facebook Purity. You can customise it to not show a whole stack of different post-types (including ads) from appearing in newsfeed. It has improved my experience. FB of course hate it but every time they find a way of disabling the thing the guy behind it comes up with a fix. -
John Hartz at 04:08 AM on 20 July 2020A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook
Another comment posted on the SkS Facebook page in response to this article...
Julian Skidmore
My fb friends see quite a lot of climate posts thanks to SkepticalScience, because I actively share them. Their opportunity to have misinformation redressed will be more limited if you leave the platform. -
Doug Bostrom at 02:59 AM on 20 July 2020A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook
Failure to communicate is usually in the hands of the person talking.
Here we've clearly failed to communicate MW's refusal to use pushed content and AI driving that push, the differences iin outcomes that unpack from that choice.
That and the lack of advertisements, the impossibility of microtargeted ads, how that unpacks.
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Doug Bostrom at 02:52 AM on 20 July 2020A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook
Sauerj: "I would work to leave FB but do so with as much noise as you can."
An excellent point. Ideally FB would be tamed, broken to the will of users. The company needs feedback in order to do that.
The equivocation of MeWe and Facebook regarding bogus information being delivered spontaneously to users is incorrect. MeWe doesn't push content: users have to seek it out. This is a key difference and according to the (excellent) method applied by SauerJ will change the results of the analysis quite radically.
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sauerj at 12:20 PM on 19 July 2020A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook
There a two major typo errors with the above text (and a number of poorly worded, sloppy errors). The major ones need to be pointed out:
#3 in the Reasons to Stay section: "... readership of SkS on SM would plummet in the meantime if fully leaving moving to FB."
Conclusion section: "The points above in #3 #4 and #5 in the 'Leaving' section should be made clear ..."
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sauerj at 12:07 PM on 19 July 2020A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook
Reasons to Stay or Leave: 4 Reasons for each group. Rating each 1 to 5 (1 = stay, 5= leave)
Reasons for staying on FB:
1) No One Polices False Information: FB does not self-control (police) false information. Neither does most other media organizations (Fox News), and neither does MeWe. There will still be climate denier groups and individuals all over MeWe, peddling false information within their echo groups, once it gets a full spectrum of users. So, this is a neutral point: Rating = 3.
2) Flow of False Information Likely Only Slightly Less on MeWe: Many climate deniers are not FB users. They get the misinformation from many other sources. Even if everyone moved to MeWe, the flow of climate denial into MeWe will be the same (coming from other media sources). (Certainly the self-amplification of this misinformation within FB will be stunted - see first two points in next section - but I believe this internal amplification is a smaller accelerant of the flow of misinformation on FB compared to the incoming flow of misinformation from other media sources.) So, this is a neutral point: Rating = 3. ... (Although, since the flow of misinformation may be less (if even slightly less), then one could argue this should be a 4 favoring leaving.)
3) Loss of Readership & Loss of Penetrating the Internet w/ Good, Truthful Material: FB users like the "one stop shopping" aspect of FB's news feed. Not having to click around on different sites, just scroll down to see media material from groups & individuals of interest is very fast and convenient. But, there are many other social media (SM) platforms that users do click on, so adding MeWe to the list is only a partial inconvenience. But, until MeWe use builds, the readership of SkS on SM would plummet in the meantime if fully moving to FB. So, this is not a show stopper for leaving, but it is a major reason to stay (for now): Rating = 1.
4) Buy out of MeWe or future change of MeWe: There is no guarantee that MeWe won't succumb to future money interest. So, loss of readership and other headaches could be all for naught in a few years from now. But, this is only speculation: Rating = 3.
Reasons for leaving FB
1) No Profile Specific Ordering of News Feed: FB users can order their newsfeed based on time too (just like MeWe); but they have to click on this feature with every refresh; while, with MeWe, this is built-in. Odds are that only <5% of FB users methodically do this. Therefore, this reduces the "outrage trigger potential" of MeWe compared to FB. This is one reason why the internal self-amplification of false information would be less on MeWe vs FB. Rating = 5.
2) No Profile Specific Ads: FB users can block ads using adblockers (very effective) and hiding the rest (a minor inconvenience). But, only 30% of internet users use adblockers. So, 70% of FB users are getting profile specific ads which potentially feed their "outrage & false information addiction". So, this is another reason why the internal self-amplification of outrage and false information would be less on MeWe vs FB. Rating = 4. (or maybe a 5)
3) Make a Moral Point about the Social Health Fallout caused by FB: Most media publishers get their paycheck off of peddling "outrage" in order to draw readership so to sell ads. Some publishers rely on this to the extreme (Info Wars, Fox News, CNN, FB); others much less so or not at all (AP News, MeWe). Social media (vs older media forms) speeds up the flow of this "outrage quotient" by 1) being constant in time and 2) enabling the viewers themselves to contribute to the circulation of outrage, like a virus. This can take this flow & buildup of "outrage" to socially unhealthy levels of polarization and radicalization which can even overpower the old social stabilizing institutions that, in the past, would keep up with dampening past lower levels of outrage (keeping it in check). So, today's intense flow of "outrage" caused by social media groups, like FB which feeds off of it for its paycheck and purposely is designed to amplify it, is a serious social health issue. However, MeWe doesn't block incoming "outrage" content; but it does thwart the internal self-amplification of this outrage, via #1 and #2 in the above 'Leaving' reasons. By leaving, this is taking a stand against this kind of socially unhealthy pathology against FB's purposeful amplification of outrage for the sake of making a buck. Rating = 5.
4) Make a Moral Point about FB not controlling Climate Denialism: As a climate pro-science site, it would only seem fitting & in keeping with its mission that SkS should make a moral stand against FB's nefarious climate denial inaction. Rating = 5.
Average Rating = between 3.625 to 3.875
Conclusions & Recommendations: Based on this, I would work to leave FB but do so with as much noise as you can. I would try to team up with as many climate action advocate groups as you can (scientists, climate groups, institutions, schools, companies, churches, etc). Then, I would write a mass article, signed by all, to be published in a couple major papers (Guardian, Forbes) so to announce your plans to leave FB on Date = XYZ, unless FB meets specified demands in writing by that date (and spell out your demands in detail). The points above in #4 and #5 in the 'Leaving' section should be made clear (like a social condemnation against FB and how they are nefariously polarizing the world for the sake of a buck). Then, follow thru (in mass) and leave FB if they refuse to meet the demands in full by that date. Give instructions to your readership on how to set up MeWe accounts with plenty of "overlapping" time to ease the transition.I have accounts w/ both FB and MeWe; although I am not a frequent MeWe user yet.
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Wol at 11:02 AM on 19 July 2020A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook
I don't use facebook for three reasons:
1) It's one of the worst user interfaces on the web (and that's saying something!)
2) I have no need to "communicate" with people I don't want to, nor to be "liked" (is that the word?) by them
3) The fewer sites that harvest my information the better.
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Doug Bostrom at 06:30 AM on 19 July 2020A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook
Lest anybody wonder and worry about it, we're not going to decamp from Facebook, any more than people are going to change or modify their consumption habits of material things such as fossil fuels because they know it's the right choice.
But it's important that we keep in mind the trades that we're making in being there.
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John Hartz at 05:03 AM on 19 July 2020A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook
Another comment posted on the SkS Facebook page in response to this article...
Stephen Keeler
Keep publishing. It’s important that your work is read (and shared). Otherwise you are handing victory to those publishing misinformation. -
Doug Bostrom at 03:40 AM on 19 July 2020A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook
Thanks for the tip, Vasco. I'm going to take a look at that. We're spread thinly so part of our problem of course is staffing new beachheads.
A weird feature of this Facebook problem: miles of column inches given over to kvetching about Facebook while failing to mention that there are alternatives, and that using alternatives is the path out of the problem.
The conversation needs to move forward from "it's bad, somebody save us!" Most good luck is made, not found, and here we can make our own better luck with little effort.
And sure, FB has some postives. Neonicotinoids have some positives, seem completely wonderful if one is sufficiently myopic. But is destroying the food chain a worthwhile payoff?
Here's a neonicotinoid-style side-effect of Facebook, a description of the experience journalists encountered when investigating the ad purchase process at FB::
At one point in the process, for example, the automated system asked the researchers if they wished to “INCLUDE people who match at least ONE of the following: German Schutzstaffel, history of ‘why Jews ruin the world’, how to burn Jews, Jew hater”. “Your potential audience selection is great!” it told the researchers. “Potential audience size: 108,000 people.”
Worth it?
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John Hartz at 02:41 AM on 19 July 2020A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook
Everyone opining on this matter would do well to read the comments being posted about this article on the SkS Facebook page. Here's a typical response:
Marnie Parker
I share articles from or endorsed by Skeptical Science all the time on FB. Some my friends are being educated. Even people who know Climate Change is a big problem still aren't taking it seriously enough. But now several of my friends have liked your FB page directly. Don't discount that we, your readers and supporters, are spreading your information further than you ever could by yourself. -
Vasco at 00:57 AM on 19 July 2020A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook
Have you ever considered having a strong Skeptical Science presence on WT.Social? It is the type of environment amenable to the content and procedures espoused on Skeptical Science itself; and from there you coud snipe at climate change deniers' platforms of choice.
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Bob Loblaw at 23:20 PM on 18 July 2020A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook
Haliburton:
Don't read too much into the phrase "bums in seats". It derives from the olden days when information or entertainment was spread by filling a room full of people and talking to them/showing a movie/playing a concert, etc.
The "bum" is just a person's posterior. Empty seats dont pay the bills (when people paid for the privilege of sitting there). A 60-thousand seat football stadium does not generate much revennue when it is empty - hence the need to make sure you have "bums" in those seats.
https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/bums_in_seats
(Apparently, it is somewhat of a regional expression. I am Canadian.)
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John McKeon at 21:31 PM on 18 July 2020A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook
First impressions from article plus comments of readers ahead of me:
I do worry as Doug puts it that for SkS to withdraw from FB just leaves the creepy crawlies to keep confusing the hell out of people re climate science and fossil fuelled climate change.
On the other hand the disinformation would continue whether SkS is on FB or not. But now I also recall Doug's advice ... to stop being an active user of FB. -
Haiburton42 at 20:40 PM on 18 July 2020Category 6 Sets Its Sights Over the Rainbow
"I like to think of the rainbow pictured above as symbolizing the multitudinous human colors and textures that have made this meeting place what it is." Wow. What a refreshing perspective. A "rising rainbow" would be very neat to witness. I'm jealous! And I had no idea that in order to see a rainbow near the horizon, the sun needs to be almost 42° above the opposite horizon.
I guess you learn something new everyday if you're lucky, huh!
Really, though, comparing the climate crisis to a final-exam themed nightmare is perfect. I mean, if you're a student taking 12 credit hours, it's a bit like each course is one of the four horsemen.
Apocolyptic examinations, indeed!
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Haiburton42 at 20:27 PM on 18 July 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #27
The link worked for me.
"Stop Making Sense"
"It's time to get emotional about climate change"
I really love that phraseology.
I can dig her conclusion, too, "I’m not saying facts don’t matter or the scientific method should be watered down or we should communicate without facts. What I am saying is that now the climate science has been proven to be true to the highest degree possible, we have to stop being reasonable and start being emotional. More science isn’t the solution. People are the solution."
The last sentence is especially powerful. Very spot on.
(Much like my horoscope most days).
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Haiburton42 at 20:10 PM on 18 July 2020A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook
The point I'd like to make here has already been made in this article but I'm going to rephrase it a bit. . .
FB--at this point--is just a platform users go to that simply reinforces existing opinions and viewpoints. I mean, every fourth (or fifth) post in anyones timeline IS an ad. My newsfeed includes several positive posts/advertisement messages specifically as they pertain to the issue of anthropogenic global warming. Sure, it probably could disillusion the way I think about the world around me if I wasn't conscious or wanted it to. I mean, in that it could make me feel like the world was on my side. (It isn't).
Nevertheless, I've been wanting a reason to deactivate my account and I don't see a problem with supporting SkS's efforts to, for lack of a better term, boycott FB for the reasons listed above. I recieve SkS updates via e-mail and prefer it that way, anyway. So, I'm not necessarily sure I'd go and make a MeWe account so I could re-follow ya'll. And it seems like that's the idea here (unfollow on FB, follow on MeWe). Correct me if I'm wrong?
And then just to really make sure my entire two cents is going to this here jukebox, I think that the comment made refering to FB users as, "bums in seats," is a little whack. I get it, though. It's hard not to :"sh*t talk" on people when you fundamentally disagree with how they're spending their time/investments.
What are facebook users?
People.
What's blue and white and data mines?
The most popular social media website.
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Eclectic at 11:50 AM on 18 July 2020A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook
Just like Wilddouglas, as a non-user of Facebook, my personal leverage is zero in this matter. Yes, I can (and do, FWIW) recommend less FB usage to friends & acqaintances. My share portfolio does not include (AFAIK) companies that advertise on FB ~ so no room for influence via shareholder meetings. And my political vote . . . well, governments are somewhat fearful of the Press & social media ~ so they might/may/could take action or exert pressure on FB, only when there is a sufficient scandal over FB-mediated influence on elections. But I suspect it will take much more stuff hitting the fan, before all major parties feel it is in their interest to take real action.
My inexpert opinion is not worth much ~ I only give it as some feedback for consideration by the gubernators of SkS. I suspect that a FB "drop-out" by SkS would be lost in the statistical noise at FB. So I am hoping there are other ways of skinning a cat.
Are there disadvantages in SkS having a foot on more than one platform? Could it be that a "partial defection" by user groups (such as SkS) would produce a bigger signal at FB Central, than would simple complete withdrawals? ( It seems almost inconceivable that FB would not intensely scrutinize their rival "David-size" platforms.)
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wilddouglascounty at 10:47 AM on 18 July 2020A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook
I have never been a Facebook member, and see no reason to ever become one for all the many reasons a reasonable person might list. Nevertheless, I can make a distinction between my personal decision not to join as a data collecdtion point that Facebook can extract identity profiles on me to sell to whomever wants to buy it, vs. having a Skeptical Science presence on Facebook that can be a reliable, vetted source of objective information.
I can even envision that the traffic to your Facebook site might convince the data analytics folks that there might be some profitability in providing a decent platform for science on Facebook.
This does not preclude a presence on alternative sites nor does it preclude criticizing Facebook whenever it tilts the playing surface as it does whenever it gives a pass to vetted information sources.
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Bob Loblaw at 10:43 AM on 18 July 2020A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook
Doug: I don't disagree that it's users that drive the advertisers. I guess they are more than bums in the seats in the sense that they also provide free content that brings in more bums in the seats. In normal media, they used to pay reporters to do that.
The advertisers want eyes on the ads, which happens when the bums in the seats stare at the screens.
And what the bums in the seats read and type gives Facebook more data to sell.
Fewer bums, less crap typed for others to read, fewer bums, etc. is the sequence that will end it.
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nigelj at 08:29 AM on 18 July 2020A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook
Governments can only regulate to a certain extent and facebook are bad at self regulation. So yes in the end it might comes down to users. I ended my account ages ago for numerous reasons.
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Doug Bostrom at 07:41 AM on 18 July 2020A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook
"...moving away from Facebook will only succeed if the advertisers/buyers move away. Users are just bums in the seats (or eyes on the screen)."
Users are why advertisers are on Facebook.
One comes before the other. Users are not "bums in seats," they're workers providing eyeball services to Facebook, which sellls those services to advertisers.
Let's keep our order straight here.
So: fewer users, fewer dollars flowing to Facebook.
A drop in revenue is the only thing Facebook will attend to.
This is all on users.
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Bob Loblaw at 06:33 AM on 18 July 2020A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook
In another sense, Facebook does what its advertisers (and people that buy data from them) want - they pay the bills, and as long as they are willing to pay, Facebook will continue on the same path.
As a user (which does not include me), moving away from Facebook will only succeed if the advertisers/buyers move away. Users are just bums in the seats (or eyes on the screen).
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Doug Bostrom at 03:15 AM on 18 July 2020A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook
To put it all less charitably, as a non-user of Facebook who has had a lot of conversations with Facebook users about the societal effects of Facebook and the choice implied by supporting its agenda as a user, I hear the same elusive reasoning employed by alcoholics when they're confronted with the negative effects they're producing.
If you're a Facebook user and you're making excuses for Facebook, think harder.
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Doug Bostrom at 03:10 AM on 18 July 2020A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook
For many reasons governments don't have the ability to save us from FB. And it would be far from ideal to allow governments to do this work in any case.
The levers of power here are entirely at FB user fingertips. Not lifting a finger, not logging in— that's how FB will be tamed.
As we explain, this isn't an all-or-nothing affair. A modicum of self-discipline on the part of individuals and a modicum of faith that others have the same modest capacity can steer the company.
FB is driven by and feeds on obsessively scrutinized statistics. Inaction will be noticed.
The analogy with the UN is dubious. One organization is charged with the mission of improving the human condition. The other is charged with the mission of collecting dollars for private benefit. One has a track record of doing good works albeit imperfectly, the other a track record littered with concertedly intentional depraved behavior, with imperfection being a key requirement of successful operation.
This job of remedying Facebook requires literally no effort and no cost. But we can't do it? We resign ourselves to fatalism? What a remarkable surrender, and how depressing to think of the same attitude applied to other urgent problems.
If we can't deal with repairing or replacing an entirely optional feature of our lives that has not even been in existence for two decades, we surely won't sort out other more pressing issues, such as climate change. If we choose not to vote on Facebook by not lifting a finger, what effort will we really apply to bigger, harder jobs?
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Eclectic at 22:40 PM on 17 July 2020A conundrum: our continued presence on Facebook
Facebook is somewhat like the United Nations ~ which is far from perfect, but is The Only Game In Town. Withdrawing from the UN is an option with little benefit.
Facebook's AI "engagement algorithm" produces a toxic effect on society/democracy. And, as you know, it is very open to manipulation by outside interests. We can hope that governments & major corporations (of the benign type) will gradually push Facebook in a healthier direction.
Just like we can hope that the UN will improve. [But how to do it?]
Yet the climate-science deniers aren't having it all their own way. They claim persecution [as always, of course!] Several days ago, the marvellous blogsite WUWT posted an article saying that they were being deplatformed by "our hosting provider" per "a big increase in hosting costs". And so, after >2 years, they are moving back to Wordpress. Attached comments were filled with sentiments about "the suppressing of scientific dissent" ; and Conspiracy by the extensive Climate Alarmist institutions ; the "politically biased cancel culture" ; and "cultural Marxism" ; and suchlike.
WUWT will have some temporary disruption of service, and of commenters' postings. And Mr Watts is keeping an extra-tight moderation in place, until the changeover is complete. (It might be amusing, to see the tenor of comments there, once the Usual Suspects are free to let rip about this persecution.)
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Philippe Chantreau at 00:35 AM on 17 July 2020Everything You Need to Know About Climate Change
Sorry, looks like I should have been more diligent. Someone at Tamino's relayed this from NSIDC:
"On Tuesday, July 14th and Wednesday, July 15th, the following data collections may not be available due to planned system maintenance: AMSR-E, Aquarius, ASO, High Mountain Asia, IceBridge, ICESat/GLAS, ICESat-2, MEaSUREs, MODIS, NISE, SMAP, SnowEx, and VIIRS."
Hopefully will update later today or tomorrow.
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Philippe Chantreau at 00:30 AM on 17 July 2020Everything You Need to Know About Climate Change
Talking about that, anyone knows why NSIDC has been unable to update the sea ice extent and concentration maps? Showing no data for the past 2 days. This happened early a few days ago then was corrected but now it has been 2 days in a row. I think the extent graph has also not been updated.
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Bob Loblaw at 11:20 AM on 15 July 2020Everything You Need to Know About Climate Change
William's description of the terminology is in agreement with my understanding.
- Ice ages are times when there is long-term ice ice in some locations on the planet, and we currently have such ice in mountainous regions as well as Greenland and Antarctica. We are in an ice age.
- During an ice age, periods with extensive ice are "glacial periods", and periods will relatively little ice are "interglacials". We have much less ice now than during the last glacial maximum; we are in an interglacial.
The mis-use of the term "ice age" is pretty common.
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william5331 at 07:00 AM on 15 July 2020Everything You Need to Know About Climate Change
Just a wee quibble. The last icy period wasn't an ice age. It was an glacial or glacial period and we are now in an interglacial. I have no problem with calling that period from the Eemian to the Holocene an ice age but we then need a different term for the ice age that we are in the middle of, which started some 2.75m years ago. Is this just quibbling. Well no. A great TV program by Nat Geo suggested that the extinction of the fauna of North America was caused by the change in climate coming out of the "Ice Age". What they should of said was coming out of a glacial period. They ignored the fact that through multiple cycles of glacial and interglacial, those same members of the mega-fauna survived quite well, thank you very much. Using ambiguous, poorly defined terms leads to mis-conceptions.
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Bob Loblaw at 11:34 AM on 14 July 2020Climate 'Skeptics' are like Galileo
Also known as the Galileo Gambit, there are a few good resources on the fallacy:
At Wikipedia, where it is one side of the Association Fallacy:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Association_fallacy
At Rational Wiki, where they have it mentioned as part of the Arumentum Ad Martyrdom fallacy:
https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Argumentum_ad_martyrdom
and also have a specific entry for the Galileo Gambit:
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scaddenp at 08:59 AM on 14 July 2020Climate 'Skeptics' are like Galileo
The "Galileo strategy" is a strange one. Someone posits (without evidence, unlike Galileo) something that goes against mainstream science. Their reasoning is a joke which is clear to those who understand the science ( but not the wilfully ignorant) and so get rubbished by mainstream science. Ergo, this person must be a Galileo. Pretty hard to discuss critical thinking with someone who makes leaps of logic like this. To quote Carl Sagan. "But the fact that some geniuses were laughed at does not imply that all who are laughed at are geniuses. They laughed at Columbus, they laughed at Fulton, they laughed at the Wright brothers. But they also laughed at Bozo the Clown."
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nigelj at 07:35 AM on 14 July 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #28
"Cases of child malnutrition in England double in last six months"
Useful article from the Guardian, but this is not a problem with the food supply chain as such. The article plainly states families are struggling to afford food due to the lockdown situation (job losses, and reduced wages etcetera).
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Postkey at 20:29 PM on 13 July 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #28
"Cases of child malnutrition in England double in last six months
Almost 2,500 children admitted to hospitals in England suffering malnutrition in 2020"www.theguardian.com/society/2020/jul/12/cases-of-child-malnutrition-double-in-last-six-months
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nigelj at 08:03 AM on 13 July 2020Spreading rock dust on fields could remove vast amounts of CO2 from air
Just to clarify things, I definitely don't advocate rock weathering as a stand alone answer to drawing down atmospheric CO2. There is definitely space for multiple approaches including rock weathering, regenerative agriculture, growing forests where feasible, and possibly carbon capture and storage. I dont think we know enough yet to put all our eggs in one basket, other than to say ideas like BECCS do not seem viable to me.
That said, we know soils can sequester vast quantities of carbon from historical evidence in places like Asia. If all it takes is changing how we farm, and this can be done without big problems and has a range of other benefits, it seems a question of why wouldn't we? But those deep soils took a long time to build up, so soil carbon is unlikely to be a quick fix.
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nigelj at 07:47 AM on 13 July 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #28
Useful article on covid 19, but I actually thought the global food supply chain generally held up quite well during the covid 19 problem. Nobody went hungry in New Zealand, although some imported foods were off the shelves for a short period. The main problem appeared to be panic buying. Yes America has more infections than us on a per capita basis and closed some meat works due to illness, but I'm not aware of anyone going seriously hungry specifically due to supply issues?
It's true that the globalised system with a lot of imported food might create dependence and problems in a crisis, but if you tried to make your country totally self sufficient in food, and you own internal supply chain failed you would be in an equally problematic situation, and reliant on begging from the globalised system. I'm just saying we shouldn't knock globalisation, and there are certainly ways to ensure countries help each other if we want.
Climate change is arguably a lot worse than Covid 19, because it is an absolute threat to food production and much longer term. Yeah sure genetic engineering may increase food production, and counter some of this but we don't really know, and we are expending effort to fix a climate induced food production problem, effort that could be better directed at other issues.
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