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Comments 7001 to 7050:
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ClimateDemon at 19:00 PM on 5 July 2020Models are unreliable
Bob Loblaw @ 1229
Well how about that! I, too, have a friend whom I would like you to meet — nonequilibrium. At least I believe you are still strangers since you don’t seem to recognize him at all.
Yes, H2O vapor will condense if cooled, but not the entire earth instantaneously. However, if you use a single-temperature earth model constrained to thermal equilibrium at all times (ie. CO2 control knob model), this is exactly what you are assuming. By not handling these atmospheric problems regarding the atmosphere as the nonequilibrium system that it is, you miss all transient effects and temperature changes seem to happen quite suddenly. Here are a couple of quotes from the SkS Climate Myth 36 page that I believe illustrate my point quite well.
Eclectic @268 Climate Myth 36… Now picture all CO2 suddenly removed from the atmosphere — result: a strong rapid negative feedback. Temperatures plummet, with widespread snow & frost precipitation on land and a fast-spreading layer of ice on the sea [with further sunlight reflection and further spread of sea-ice, to 100% coverage]. Ultimate result: a frozen world (and with minimal H2O in the atmosphere).
KR @284 Climate Myth 36Non-condensible gases set the thermal equilibrium, condensible gases (water vapor) can only act as feedback because they respond so quickly to a temperature change, even if their overall effect is quite large .
Do the temperature changes and precipitation actually happen that fast? – Not really. What we are seeing here is an artificial discontinuity in temperature due to the neglect of transient effects in the equilibrium model. It’s somewhat like turning on a new refrigerator and expecting the temperature inside to immediately drop to the operating temperature.
At this point, I would strongly suggest that you and your AGW comrades educate yourselves some more on the fundamental physical laws behind the climate models, and recognize when you are working with equilibrium and nonequilibrium systems. Maybe then you won’t be quite so bamboozled by CO2 control knobs and icebound earths.BTW — I'm actually all grown up now so you can knock off the kid talk!
Moderator Response:[DB] Inflammatory baiting and sloganeering snipped. You need to up your game by citing credible sources to support your claims. Assertions are not sources.
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MA Rodger at 18:08 PM on 5 July 2020Models are unreliable
ClimateDemon @1240,
You cite your comments @1173 & @1190 as providing demonstration that the CO2 'control knob' concept of climate is "false".
I would suggest there is no such provided demnstration.
It takes little effort to examine these comments of yours.
@1173 you compare the role of CO2 and H2O when accounting for the energy balance of the atmosphere and jump to the assertion that "there is nothing to indicate that CO2 has any 'control knob' effect." Appended to that rather incomplete analysis, you cite Lacis et al (2010) as describing "the only model that predicts AGW and the CO2 control knob" but that Lacis et al are wrong because this "only model" simplifies the climate system too much. In particular, you describe this "only model" using the Clausius-Clapeyron equation and with "the earth's temperature is represented by a single scalar value T." Your final assertion sets out "It took several false assumptions to make the control knob argument, so there are very likely problems with it."
@1190 you call for people "who claim that I am making evidenceless assertions" to provide "just one example of such an assertion" that you have made. You append to this call three ground rules which you insist all will agree. (i) A world witout a "uniform" surface temperature is not in "thermal equilibruim". (ii) Use of the Clausius-Clapeyron equation cannot be extended to include the large global temperature variations. (iii) An equation should not be used beyond its limits.
(ClimateDemon, do correct me if I misrepresent the intention of your comments @1173 & @1190.)
I find these comments disturbing in many ways but let me here provide a little more than "just one example" of "evidenceless assertions" by naming that "only model."
That "only model" @1173 can only be the one used by Lacis et al (2010) and that is GISS ModleE which nobody in their right mind could ever describe as being:-
"a highly oversimplified, zero dimensional model in which the earth's temperature is represented by a single scalar value T, and the H2O vapor concentration is determined by the Clausius-Clapeyron equation at temperature T. This means that the entire globe is rigidly held to this one fixed value of temperature and corresponding value of humidity, which we know is false."
Yet that is what I read @1173.
Further, the initial consideration @1173, that CO2 and H2O are treated identically within energy balance equations and that of the two H2O is the more powerful GHG, ignores the obvious point that GISS ModelE models the hydrological cycle (thus setting H2O as a feedback) while the levels of those non-condensing GHGs (of which CO2 is the major component) are simple inputs into the model (thus setting CO2 as the primary GHG forcing agent). And that treatment of CO2 & H2O is the same as that in other GCMs. GISS ModelE is/was never "the only model that predicts AGW and the CO2 control knob."
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ClimateDemon at 14:35 PM on 5 July 2020Models are unreliable
Philippe Chantreau @1222
I am not trying to overturn anything. I just want to see the science done correctly. Also, your comment about me arguing that water vapor can serve as a forcing instead of a feedback shows that you are still thinking in terms of the "control knob" model which I have already shown in 1173 and 1190 to be false.
Moderator Response:[DB] Making things up is unhelpful.
Sloganeering snipped. -
Eclectic at 12:28 PM on 5 July 2020Models are unreliable
Deplore_This ,
Firstly, allow me to thank you for bringing entertainment to this thread.
Secondly, allow me to state the obvious ~ being what all readers here are thinking ( including you yourself! ). It is obvious that part of your activity is you indulging yourself in some trolling (but please be calm, because my words are charitable ~ since the alternative diagnosis would be distinctly more unflattering.)
But I see that you are actually here for two purposes (whether you realize it or not). For like many people who start off as climate-science deniers and visit SkS, your mind is split in two. One part knows that it is in the wrong about the science. And actually would like to learn "climate". The other part angrily rejects that self-acknowledgement, and wishes to challenge (and troll) the mainstream science position. [ Here, I won't now go into your subconscious motivations for rejection of the well-established science ~ but you really do owe it to yourself to do some self-examination. It is sad for anyone to live the "unexamined" life. ]
One part of your mind knows that it really ought to learn about such important science. And because in the long run, the science always wins (and history condemns the foolishness of the Flat-Earthers, Geo-centrists, Anti-Evolutionists, et alia.)
The other part of your mind (call it the Denialist part) wishes to fight on, and cause as many waves as possible. Inevitably, this ends up with you embarrassing yourself publicly ~ but the Denialist part is too angry to care about that, and rather enjoys making futile waves.
Ah, we humans are an interesting lot
. . . often Deplorable, yet always Interesting.
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Deplore_This at 10:10 AM on 5 July 2020Models are unreliable
@Bob Lowlaw 1237
You aren't intelligent enough to understand what I know.
Moderator Response:[DB] Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can and will be rescinded if the posting individual continues to treat adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Moderating this site is a tiresome chore, particularly when commentators repeatedly submit offensive personal attacks, off-topic posts or intentionally misleading comments and graphics or simply make things up. We really appreciate people's cooperation in abiding by the Comments Policy, which is largely responsible for the quality of this site.
Finally, please understand that moderation policies are not open for discussion. If you find yourself incapable of abiding by these common set of rules that everyone else observes, then a change of venues is in the offing.Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter, as no further warnings shall be given.
Egregious personal attack removed. -
Bob Loblaw at 10:02 AM on 5 July 2020Models are unreliable
Deplore_This:
It is not enough to read the IPCC or any other material. You also have to understand it. I have seen nothing in your postings here to suggest that you understand anything at all about climatology or climate models.
I have see nothing to suggest that you have understood any of the material that you have been pointed to here, or that you understand any of the materail that you have cut and pasted from denial blogs and sources.
You parrot stuff you don't understand. You accept everything that suits your pre-conceived bias. You reject everything that disagrees with that bias.
DNFTT.
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Deplore_This at 08:53 AM on 5 July 2020Models are unreliable
@Tom Dayton 1234
Climate sensitivity is absolutely critical to accurately scientifically predict ACC as are the natural causes of CC. Regulatory policy decisions are based on those predictions. But that is a discussion for another article in SkS.
Moderator Response:[DB] Off-topic snipped.
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Deplore_This at 08:41 AM on 5 July 2020Models are unreliable
@Tom Dayton 1232
BTW I've already been through the climate sensitivity part of SkS.
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Tom Dayton at 08:36 AM on 5 July 2020Models are unreliable
Deplore_This: Also, you seem to be overweighting the practical importance of the exact value of sensitivity. If you're in a car 200 feet from a rock wall, heading directly toward that wall, it doesn't really matter much if your speed is 50 or 60 miles per hour; the consequences are bad enough in either case that you should be applying the brakes right now. For climate change there is the additional urgency that the problem gets worse as time goes on, so even if sensitivity is on the low end, that merely delays the same bad consequences by an inconsequentially few years. Yet another time urgency comes from the fact that the primary causes (in particular greenhouse gas emissions) and feedbacks (e.g., lower albedo from loss of ice) are impossible to reverse on time scales that will be useful. Ice loss, for example, effectively is permanent on human timescales. Another problem with delaying action is that warming accelerates due to feedbacks, sort of like interest accruing on a loan. The longer you wait to pay, the more money you need to pay.
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Deplore_This at 08:36 AM on 5 July 2020Models are unreliable
@Tom Dayton 1232
You’re speculating. You may not be able to “evaluate that claim without someone else’s opinion” but that doesn’t mean someone more capable isn’t able to. And for climate research to be science it must promote hypothesis that can be empirically tested. If scientists are not allowed to challenge the common body of opinion like those I posted in 1193 and 1194 then it is not science, it’s group think.
You don’t need to respond here. I am going to post this philosophical argument under the correct category of SkS. I’ll post a link here.
Moderator Response:[DB] Inflammatory snipped.
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Tom Dayton at 08:04 AM on 5 July 2020Models are unreliable
Deplore_This: It is impossible for you, or anyone else, to evaluate that statement "without relying on someone else's opinion." Because science is a collaborative enterprise. Even, and 100% of, the scientists who create GCMs rely on other people's opinions--critically so. Certainly you can reduce your reliance on someone else's opinion, by learning about climate science. Computer simulated GCMs are only a tiny portion of that climate science. And trying to learn climate science by directly trying to learn computer simulated GCMs is an utterly doomed approach. Several people have given you multiple resources for learning enough climate science for you to start to be able to rely less on other people's opinions. You could stop rejecting those suggestions out of hand.
With regard to the particular claim you mentioned, you could start with the "How sensitive is our climate?" post here on SkS. Read the Basic tabbed pane first, then the Intermediate, then the Advanced. To dig in a bit more, go to RealClimate and type "sensitivity" into the Search box at the top right, then peruse the resulting posts. If you want to jump to cutting edge research on that topic, see the recent RealClimate post about the CMIP6 models.
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Deplore_This at 07:47 AM on 5 July 2020Models are unreliable
@Tom Dayton 1230
Alright, I’ll simplify this. How to I evaluate the following claim without relying on someone else’s opinion? (I’ve already read the IPCC reports).
“There is growing evidence that climate models are running too hot and that climate sensitivity to carbon dioxide is at the lower end of the range provided by the IPCC. Nevertheless, these lower values of climate sensitivity are not accounted for in IPCC climate model projections of temperature at the end of the 21st century or in estimates of the impact on temperatures of reducing carbon dioxide emissions.”
-— Judith Curry, the former Chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at my alma mater
https://www.thegwpf.org/content/uploads/2017/02/Curry-2017.pdf -
nigelj at 07:47 AM on 5 July 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #27
Addendum. And 8) the things OPOF talks about where leaders in society do the wrong thing etc.
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nigelj at 07:45 AM on 5 July 20202020 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #27
Must check the movie out.
There has been this seemingly never ending debate about the best way to motivate climate action, 1) fear and scare stories, or 2) positive stories and solutions and their wider benefits, and hope.
Traditionally problems facing society seem to combine both approaches, so Im inclined to think that is what should be done with climate change. Haven't seen compelling evidence to do differently but stand to be corrected.
Consider that climate change is clearly inherently scary to some people at least. It's when we are scared that we take action because fear is clearly a good motivator. It is therefore hard to see why anyone should play down the climate threat. And if the sum of the parts is catastrophic then that is what should be said. Fear is paralysing and painful, motivating us to find solutions.
So why has climate mitigation been weak despite media scare stories? Possibly because of:
1) Lack of trust of the general media and journalists and articles interpreting the climate issue.
2) Exaggerations and wild claims from the fringe element in the scientific and environmental community, that reduce trust.
3) Humans are hard wired to respond most strongly to very present threats (like covid 19) rather than long term and future orientated threats like climate change as below.
www.bbc.com/future/article/20190304-human-evolution-means-we-can-tackle-climate-change
This doesn't mean fear is not a motivator for climate action, but it clearly signals it may not be sufficient, so we need a focus on the benefits of solutions as well, suggesting the movie is on the right track and long as it doesnt gloss over the problem too much .
4) The IPCC, the one body politicians listen to seems overly cautious and non scary in its style and information. There is little discussion in the summary for policy makers of the very worst case scenarios, like multi metre sea level rise.
5) The denialist campaign and the power of fossil fuel lobby groups over politicians
6) Political tribalism
7) Complacency, vested interests, and (misguided) fear about costs of mitigation.
So there are many reasons for weak climate mitigation. It suggests we are wrong to blame the use of fear as a motivator, but that the scary messaging must be credible and accurate, and come from trusted sources directly like scientists rather than journalists interpreting things, and that we definitely need to empahises solutions and their wider benefits.
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Tom Dayton at 07:38 AM on 5 July 2020Models are unreliable
There really aren't any "climate" models. There are models of earth systems, some being "just" atmosphere, some being "just" ocean, some being "just" biosphere, some being "just" land, and so on. Each of those models has sub-models that can and are created and used outside of those bigger models. Any or all of the above models can be combined into really big models that are attempts to model everything.
Any of those models--the big ones all the way down to the little ones--can be used to research climate, by running them over climate-scale simulated durations. They can instead be used to research weather by running them over weather-scale simulated durations. Indeed, "climate models" essentially are identical to "weather models." Of course there are important differences, but many of those differences are in how the models are set up and run rather than in the hearts of the models themselves. In particular, climate models are initiallized by running them for a few hundred simulated years until they stabilize, which means until weather cancels itself out, so that boundary conditions dominate intial conditions. Another notable example is that weather models rarely get run with and without injections of greenhouse gases, because changes in greenhouse gas emissions are too small to matter on the time scales of typical uses of weather models.
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Bob Loblaw at 07:34 AM on 5 July 2020Models are unreliable
ClimateDemon, allow me to make an introduction:
- I"d like you to meet this friend of mine - precipitation.
Nature has been trying for millenia to push more and more water vapour into the atmosphere, through a process called evaporation. Maybe you have met. The amount of water vapour that is added each year is huuuge.
Unfortunately, the atmosphere has a nasty habit of condensing that water vapour back to liquid (or freezing to solid) and letting it drop out of the sky as precipitation. It's really, really hard to get it to stay there for anything more than a few days. You can get the atmosphere to hold more if you heat the air up, but that means you need something other than water vapour to force that temperature rise.
Maybe CO2 would work. I wonder. Maybe someone should look into that.
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Deplore_This at 07:32 AM on 5 July 2020Models are unreliable
@Tom Dayton 1227
You’re speculating. Amazon offers a number of excellent business cases. In any event, Amaxon is a bad analogy to GCM.
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Tom Dayton at 07:25 AM on 5 July 2020Models are unreliable
Deplore_This: Another example of you writing your own contradictions of yourself, is your statement "And MBA programs use case studies extensively. I earned mine before Amazon but I suspect Amazon is a case study(s) in most current MBA programs." Exactly! One case study within courses that use other case studies as well--courses that address broader topics than any one of those case studies, or narrower topics than any of those case studies. Few if any entire courses devoted to, and titled, "how to make an Amazon-like mega company." Which was exactly Philippe Chantreau's point. GCMs, and "climate models" more generally, are covered in most atmospheric science courses, to some degree. Portions of those models are covered exhaustively, and not just as case studies, in many courses that are devoted to those portions of theory and modeling such as courses devoted to radiative transfer.
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Deplore_This at 07:24 AM on 5 July 2020Models are unreliable
@Tom Dayton 1225
If you look at my original post at 1162 you will see that was the only course I found and it is not currently offered. I was asking for recommendations for a similar course at another university and I haven’t received any recommendation from this group.
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Tom Dayton at 07:17 AM on 5 July 2020Models are unreliable
Deplore_This: How is it that you cannot see the contradiction of you simultaneously complaining that there are no university courses on climate modeling, and pointing to exactly such available courses? Everybody knows there are courses on climate modeling. What people have been telling you, over and over, is that the vast majority of university teaching of climate modeling is done in courses that are not explicitly and specifically titled "climate modeling."
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Tom Dayton at 07:13 AM on 5 July 2020Models are unreliable
ClimateDemon, your claim in comment 1173 that "The only model that predicts AGW and the CO2 control knob is the one used by Lacis et. al. 2010" is incorrect. The Lacis model and paper describing experiments with it are merely the most explicit and easily understood (at the time) explanations of specifically that particular point. Please see also, just for example, a video of an NAS lecture by Richard Alley, or of his longer AGU lecture.
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Deplore_This at 07:10 AM on 5 July 2020Models are unreliable
@Philippe Chantreau 1220
Talk about self-righteousness indignation.
Actually there is a university course on GCM.
www.met.psu.edu/intranet/course-syllabi-repository/2020-spring-syllabi/meteo-523And MBA programs use case studies extensively. I earned mine before Amazon but I suspect Amazon is a case study(s) in most current MBA programs.
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Philippe Chantreau at 07:07 AM on 5 July 2020Models are unreliable
ClimateDemon, your objections at 1173 were not convincing. When one attempts to overturn a large area of scientific knowledge, they should have extraordinary evidence.
It seems you are making the argument that water vapor can be injected into the atmosphere and serve as a forcing instead of feedback. If that was the case, it would not get us off the hook with fossil fuels since the problem resides with the general relation:
CH+O2 ==> CO2+H2O
Combining hydrogen from the crust with atmospheric oxygen to create additional water hardly seems like a good idea under your scenario.
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ClimateDemon at 06:55 AM on 5 July 2020Models are unreliable
There may be some interesting points in this paleo evidence and the “bigger context” described by Eclectic, but it’s not really the issue I am trying to address. What I am trying to address are the current arguments for CO2 being the “control-knob” GHG (despite the fact that H2O vapor is the stronger GHG) which subsequently leads to the claim that humans are overheating the earth with their CO2 emissions, and that our very survival depends on government intervention. Now, in every reference I can find, including the Lacis et. al. 2010 paper and this website, the reason given for CO2 being the controlling GHG is that H2O vapor is condensable whereas CO2 is not. Furthermore, it is asserted without clear grounds that the H2O vapor concentration is given by the Clausius-Clapeyron equation at the current temperature, or IOW at 100% relative humidity. With this constraint on the H2O vapor concentration, it can then be only a feedback to temperature changes. CO2, however, has no such constraint and can actually cause temperature changes simply by adding more of it. This is the argument by which CO2 becomes the controlling GHG even though it is the weaker GHG. Note that without somehow constraining H2O vapor to being a feedback only to temperature change, then the entire basis of AGW collapses since H2O would then be the controlling as well as the stronger GHG. Humans may have some control over the amount of atmospheric CO2, but not H2O vapor since over 70% of the earth’s surface is covered with H2O liquid.
Therefore, we see that the AGW theory stands or falls on whether or not CO2 is the controlling GHG, and I believe I pointed out (in 1173) some serious problems with the arguments in favor of the CO2 “control knob”. If these problems are not adequately resolved, it would be a real “show-stopper” for the AGW theory.
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BarbNoon1 at 05:04 AM on 5 July 2020Animal agriculture and eating meat are the biggest causes of global warming
Here is a video that shows that the total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions from livestock is 13.5 % to 20%, in line with other countries. The EPA's figures are wrong, according to Mic. I can't do math, but I want this video link added for your analysis.
https://youtu.be/L4ykcVBOaFE -
Philippe Chantreau at 01:54 AM on 5 July 2020Models are unreliable
I take issue with DeploreThis characterization of my post. I re-read it and I find nothing deserving to be called "sophomoric", "adolescent giddiness" and whatever else was in that flurry of name calling. I was not the one referring Shakespeare in the first place.
A quote from Curry was provided that laments the lack of fluid dynamic expertise in the modeling community. I pointed to the fact, verifiable, that GCMs have originated and are constantly refined in the top fluid dynamic labs of the country. DeploreThis then repeated the same quote without specifying how merely repeating it made any difference. I will add that Curry's characterization is not accurate, as there is plenty of hard physical science contribution to climate science now, and plenty of data crunching people, data papers, etc. Does she provide a breakdown of papers according to "types" of work that she finds less "dynamicist"? All she has is a vague and general statement designed to create a negative perception without, ironically, real world data, to back it up.
Further I noted that it is disingeneous to ask for a university course on how to makle a GCM because of the nature of the enterprise. I completely stand by that statement. Nobody is going to go to a business school and ask for for a course in "how to make an Amazon-like mega company." That would be the same type of enquiry in a different domain. I am not surprised that it can't be found. Passed all the name calling, hand-waving, self-rightneousness and indignation, I do not see any cogent argument from DeploreThis as to why that would be a valid enquiry.
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Tom Dayton at 01:36 AM on 5 July 2020Models are unreliable
It is important to understand that GCMs are only a small subset of "climate models," and therefore the evidence that "climate models" provide is far broader and deeper than the evidence that GCMs provide. I highly recommend Naomi Oreskes's book Why Should We Trust Science?, for the broad background on those topics beyond climate science, though she does use some examples from climate science.
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Tom Dayton at 01:06 AM on 5 July 2020Models are unreliable
Steve Easterbrook has written multiple blog posts describing how computerized climate models are designed, built, tested, maintained, and used. I eagerly await his "forthcoming" book, but in the meantime I suggest everyone interested in that topic peruse his blog posts. For example, there is is his post When is a Model Not a Model?
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John Hartz at 00:30 AM on 5 July 2020Models are unreliable
Recommended supplemental reading directly related to the current discussion initiated by Climate Demon...
Explainer: How the rise and fall of CO2 levels influenced the ice ages by Zeke Hausfather, Carbon Brief, July 2, 2020
From the article...
In this explainer, Carbon Brief explores how the last ice age provides strong evidence of the role CO2 plays as a “control knob” for the Earth’s climate. It also acts as a cautionary tale of how the climate can experience large changes from relatively small outside “forcings”.
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Eclectic at 21:40 PM on 4 July 2020Models are unreliable
ClimateDemon @1213 , the bigger context is the paleo evidence ( you can start reading at (SkS) Climate Myths 12 and 13 , and expand out from there.
The modern empirical evidence ~ a temperature rise of 1 - 1.2 degreesC since industrialization 1850-ish, all with a 1.4x rise in air CO2 . . . and your own back-of-envelope logarithmic calc extrapolates that to around 2.0 - 2.4 as TCS and hence ECS around 30-40% higher again. IOW, an ECS of around (roughly) 2.5 -3.5 C. [Which is way higher than the deluded Lord Moncton "calculates".] And which also fits with the paleo estimates.
That all connects well with the "CO2 control knob" (remember to adjust for solar brightening/dimming over time). Find the right thread, if you wish to comment.
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MA Rodger at 21:24 PM on 4 July 2020Models are unreliable
It is an interesting thought that somebody who uncritically references both a GWPF publication (ie Briefing Paper No 24) that attempts to trivialise the usefulness of climate models (as @1193) and the 2019 Dutch denialist petition to the UN that attempts to reverse the global consensus on AGW (as @1194) would somehow obtain a deep enough understanding of the limitations of GCMs to form a useful judgement on ECS from a rather basic course on the subject, especially given that such a judgement could be gained more simply by other means.
The CLINTEL petiton (CLINTEL is basically an attempt to create a Dutch version of GWPF, the latter having been quite successful in masquerading as an educational charity and finding fertile ground within influential parts of right-wing UK politics) and the GWPF publication both contain the same bold assertion which is fundamental to their denialist argument that GCMs cannot be relied upon.
"The world has warmed at less than half the originally-predicted rate, and at less than half the rate to be expected on the basis of net anthropogenic forcing and radiative imbalance. It tells us that we are far from understanding climate change." CLINTEL petition.
"There is growing evidence that climate models are running too hot and that climatesensitivity to carbon dioxide is at the lower end of the range provided by the IPCC." GWPF Briefing Paper No24.
I would suggest the commenter first considers whether it is correct and proper to present such argument rather than attempting to "get under the hood and see how the models work for myself and to evaluate the predictive sensitivity of these models."
Operations Research (Operational Research my side of the pond) is only narrowly about the mathematics so I am intrigued that somebody with an "extensive background in operations research" (as per described @1162) would consider 'getting under the hood' as the first response to having "read criticism of the validity of the climate temperature models referenced by the IPCC."
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scaddenp at 20:12 PM on 4 July 2020Models are unreliable
"Candidly a reason for your disappointment evades me." Well the right wing dog whistles and then repeating the GWPF nonsense with claims you should have been able to refute unaided given your IPCC reading had you looked at it critically.
I repeat that it is great idea to understand the models, but only if you are going into without the biases of trying to find something which would aid your disbelief and with no clear idea as to what might change your mind.If your preference for Curry is because she expresses similar political belief to yourself and not her publishing record in climate models, then I dont think we have much to discuss, and certainly not on this thread.
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ClimateDemon at 19:34 PM on 4 July 2020Models are unreliable
Eclectic @1174
Please explain what you mean by the bigger context, and paleological evidence. Also, please explain how your CO2 "control knob" is supposed to work.
Moderator Response:[TD] Among a huge number of other resources, there is the wonderful and easily understandable 2009 AGU talk by Richard Alley, The Biggest Control Knob: Carbon Dioxide in Earth's Climate History. Steve Easterbrook wrote a good summary, but you really should watch Alley's one hour video. Then read Lacis et al. (2010), Atmospheric CO2: Principal control knob governing Earth's temperature. Alley gave (yet another!) excellent talk six years later, this time just half an hour and to the NAS, 4.6 Billion Years of Earth’s Climate History: The Role of CO2. Among several relevant posts here at SkS is How Do We Know More CO2 Is Causing Warming? Please post your comments in an appropriate thread.
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ClimateDemon at 17:40 PM on 4 July 2020Models are unreliable
1176 Deplore_This
You seem to be hitting on the same frustrations I am in regard to getting straight information about the climate models and how they are used. It turns out that you can do a free download of many of the codes used in implementing the climate models, and with the make utilities of most Unix systems (including Linux), actually compile and run them. Don't hold your breath, however, in understanding the "nuts and bolts" of the programs or even how to set up and submit a job on those systems. The only people who get that kind of help are the techie types recently hired by a government contractor specifically to do such number-crunching.
Anyway, I will answer your questions as best I can, realizing that I may not know much more about the AGW community than you do. First, I believe that the development and testing of today’s climate models is generally legitimate and done to meet the needs of climate and environmental researchers. Of course, these models were not done single-handedly, but with a team consisting of individuals with several different areas of expertise. Over the decades, they have worked out quite well, and I believe that the statements made by the SkS staff at the top of the page are generally correct.
However, I believe there is something important concerning these models that the AGW community in general is not telling us. I would like to tell you more, but would rather not do so in this forum. If you are interested please send a message to the (temporary) email address x7evz2yg@protonmail.com and I will send you a return message from the more “permanent” email account I would like to use. -
Eclectic at 17:27 PM on 4 July 2020Models are unreliable
D_P @1210 , alas you are too non-specfic in your reference.
If you meant "The climate models ... don't even do a good job" ~ then that is stating the obvious.
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Deplore_This at 17:14 PM on 4 July 2020Models are unreliable
@ Eclectic
You obviously don't realize that you've just proven the point that I made in my post at 1207.
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Eclectic at 17:04 PM on 4 July 2020Models are unreliable
Philippe C , I may have to back-pedal on my skepticism about your Questionable Lady hypothesis. There does indeed seem to be a Curry worship of almost Sub-Continental dimension. Perhaps the good Doctor has a Mrs Hyde facet to her personality?
Deplore_This , your truculence & tone-policing are a red flag. So much so, that your "search for a GCM course" seems merely a pretext for your postings.
Yet if you do have a genuine concern about the value of climate models, then please express those concerns in your own words. Without doing a "cut and paste" from the typically vague and non-substantive rhetoric which is the standard output of Dr Curry.
You seem not to be aware that the GCM's are not the basis of climate science nor are they the basis of expectations of continued global warming & the consequential major problems. The basic physics / paleo climate evidence / and the past 150 years of empirical evidence of climate response to rising atmospheric CO2 . . . all combine to give adequate grounds for policymakers to take urgent action to reduce CO2 emissions.
Climate models can sometimes be used as a test bed for certain sub-components of climate or energy fluxes. And they can (famously) produce a large range of interesting projections. But their pragmatic usefulness for projections, is low for the present & near future.
And that should be very obvious to you, when you take note of the wide range of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity which is generated by the typical models. In other words, Deplore_This , you will largely be wasting your time if you pursue "a course in GCM's" . You really really do need to study the basic science of climate.
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Deplore_This at 16:09 PM on 4 July 2020Models are unreliable
@scaddenp 1206
Thank you for your response. Candidly a reason for your disappointment evades me. As I stated in my post 1195 to you I’m trying to evaluate the validity of the GCMs referenced by the IPCC against the criticism of scientists like those posted in 1193 and 1194. All I find from the climate science community are responses like those above who merely state your sources aren’t credible, read this and you’ll understand what we do and if you don’t agree with us you’re a flat earther.
I’m not looking to create a GCM but to understand what they are, their structure, their fidelity and the assumptions that go into the GCMs used by the IPCC. To state it simply I am questioning the validity of the IPCC’s consensus opinion and am trying to find a way to evaluate it myself. I thought that I would take it to the next level and look at the underlying models themselves. I’m not on a career track in the climate science profession I’m merely looking to satisfy my personal curiosity. I thought I would take a university course that climate scientists use to learn the development and use of GCMs and posted here for recommendations. No one here has recommended one yet so I think my only recourse is to contact Penn State and see if course material is available from their last course on GCM.
BTW I’m in the US retired from the wireless equipment manufacturing business. I visited NZ 20 years ago for a broadband wireless system we supplied. The landscape is remarkable; the emerald green of Ireland painted over the rock of Gibraltar and I found the people friendly (that is once I realized that wearing the shirt of the national rugby team of Scotland was a big mistake).
Thanks again for your response.
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Deplore_This at 15:00 PM on 4 July 2020Models are unreliable
@ Eclectic, @Bob Lowlaw, @Philippe Chantreau, The moderator
Your sophomoric comments memorialize your lack of credibility and reflect poorly on all of the proponents of this website and to some extent to the entire climate science profession. Your adolescent giddiness that you can slander me and the moderator will strike my response that challenges your opinion demonstrates that in your little sandbox here you are not practicing science. If Judith Curry was your Professor I’m sure she’d be embarrassed at your unprofessional and juvenile behavior.
From my perspective your behavior here demonstrates that she is right “We've lost a generation of climate dynamicists. These are the people who develop theories and dig into data on the system and really try to find out how the system works. We've ceded all that to climate models, and the climate models are nowhere near good enough. The climate models were designed to test sensitivity to CO2. They don't even do a very good job at that…we've lost a generation of climate dynamists, and that's what worries me greatly.”
web.archive.org/web/20170105183617/www.eenews.net/stories/1060047798And in the end, you’ve all failed to answer my question so what is your reason for being here.
Good day.
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scaddenp at 14:57 PM on 4 July 2020Models are unreliable
Deplore_me. Hmm, some disappointing stuff there - it is very disappointing when the best predictor of person's beliefs on a purely scientific question is which side of the US cultural wars they on - but if you are prepared to invest in courses to get answers, then that is great and makes me hopeful. While I am tempted to respond to your answers, I doubt that would either productive or on topic, so sticking to topic.
Assuming you get a model by some means and figure out the workings, it would be interesting to know how you would use it. In particular, what kinds of answers could you imagine your investigations producing that would change your mind. It would be good to be thinking about this and getting the necessary domain knowledge so that you are not misled. Many "skeptics" go after straw-men - trying to take apart claims that modellers and scientists never made. (eg modellers claim no skill in decadal level of prediction). EdGCM would be a good starting point.
Oh and I am in NZ, working in more or less the equivalent of the USGS though our science structures are very different to US.
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Eclectic at 13:32 PM on 4 July 2020Models are unreliable
Bob Loblaw @1204 ,
The "search" for a course on DIY GCM's is not just certainly odd ~ it is positively hilarious.
But maybe technology is moving faster than I thought. And I had better check Amazon for stocks of those long-promised pocket-size quantum supercomputers (powered by cold fusion, I hope). Doubtless these miniaturized marvels would be quite expensive at first ~ but perhaps early adopters will be issued with a bonus App for a GCM or two.
Our moderator seemed to think that the good Deplore_This was doing some "baiting" ( aka "trolling" ? ). Never in a million years would I have thought such a thing . . . but it might explain the underlying motivation of this recent "encounter" at SkS, and it would explain the confused rambling denialism that he/she is throwing up. And explain the DK-like complacency.
Phillipe C @ 1203 ,
your suggestion that the Lady in Question might be the good Dr Curry, is, surely, a tad ungentlemanly? After all, the literary style is somewhat different ~ though I suppose I could be wrong on that (or the style might have had an extensive makeover per Grammarly or similar App).
Still, it will be interesting if there are more developments. I always hope there will be something new to learn, from every "challenge" to mainstream climate science. Admittedly, my hopes have always been dashed ~ but some day there may be a grain of wisdom to be found among the bucketloads of BS.
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Bob Loblaw at 11:28 AM on 4 July 2020Models are unreliable
Yes, the "search" for a class on "Make your own GCM" is certainly odd.
I'll bet if I did a search through university catalogues for courses on "How to program a Word Processor", I would not find much at all. To use that as evidence that word processing software is not useful - hey, I"m a word processing skeptic! - would not be an effective argument.
I could then switch to listing people that have found bugs in word processing programs as evidence that "word processing is not settled", or that "you can't trust word processors".
Yet somehow, each day people use word processing softare to create all sorts of useful texts. (They seem to create some awful ones, too, but that is another story...)
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Philippe Chantreau at 09:11 AM on 4 July 2020Models are unreliable
My opinion is that the lady that protest too much might be Curry.
From the WIKI page on GCMs: "Versions designed for decade to century time scale climate applications were originally created by Syukuro Manabe and Kirk Bryan at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) in Princeton, New Jersey.[1]"
Further:"In 1956, Norman Phillips developed a mathematical model that could realistically depict monthly and seasonal patterns in the troposphere. It became the first successful climate model.[2][3] Following Phillips's work, several groups began working to create GCMs.[4] The first to combine both oceanic and atmospheric processes was developed in the late 1960s at the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.[1]"
It is obvious that Fluid Dynamics are at the foundation of all the current coupled atmosphere-ocean GCMs. I find that the dissatisfied search for a specific university course on such models is perhaps disingeneous. They are an area of research, very much at the edge of knowledge. People who participate in them have already obtained graduate degrees in fluid dynamics, applied mathematics and a variety of other fields. I doubt that there are university courses on specific protein folding methods, short of outlining the basic principles and current state og knowledge. However, those who want to orient themselves in that field will easily come across the areas of knwoledge they should master first. Then they can try to go hack it at the cutting edge.
Curry does a favorite trick of hers by exploiting the fact that GCMs are not very good at delivering regional results, something well known in the modeling community, to suggest that they have no usefulness. In any case, the claim that fluid dynamics expertise is absent in the modeling community has no merit.
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Bob Loblaw at 06:55 AM on 4 July 2020Models are unreliable
Deplore_This:
You have now reached the point where moderators are starting to cut stuff.
You posted a long story from E&E. You are hitting all the main climate denier sites. Well done. You are selecting to quote places that confirm your bias.
https://www.desmogblog.com/energy-and-environment
FYI, I started learning about this stuff in the 1970s. I read a lot of the primary literature long before there was an IPCC. I can tell when someone is trying to fool me.
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Eclectic at 06:36 AM on 4 July 2020Models are unreliable
Deplore_This , yes everyone with reasonable climate knowledge has heard of Dr Judith Curry ( and I myself visit her blog several times a month . . . it's a sort of upmarket version of WUWT blog ). Dr Curry's commentary is an excellent object lesson for those who wish to exercise their critical thinking! She is one of the very very few climate-contrarian scientists (a dying breed, it appears).
Now, I notice your rapid-fire uploading of long posts at 1:23 AM and 1:24 AM and 1:25 AM. Clearly these were pre-selected & prepared to go, and were not really a response to Scaddenp.
And as you say: "... I've read criticism of the validity of ..." And there is the nub of your problem, Deplore_This.
The internal evidence of your many posts, is that you have not bothered to learn the fundamental science of climate yet. Once you have done so, then you will be able to (A) make an informed decision whether or not to attempt the various complexities of climate modeling (with or without access to a supercomputer)
. . . and (B) see right through the ludicrous nonsense of "the 500" scientists you mentioned
. . . and (C) see right through Dr Curry's vague obfuscatory sophistry.
It is a red-flag sign, that you have allowed yourself to be taken in by the simply unscientific propaganda exhibited by "the 500". But Dr Curry's propaganda is a different matter ~ she uses a more subtle approach (analogous to what the hypnotherapists call "the Indirect method" ). If you yourself are strongly motivated to believe her - which indeed you are - then she seems to make sense. That is, she seems to make sense until you educate yourself past the "veneer" level of climate science. And then, using skepticism and critical thinking, you will see the fatal flaws in her presentations.
# My apologies for sounding patronizing ~ but you really do need to learn the climate science first. Don't be an Ivar Giaever, who succumbed to Motivated Reasoning, and reckoned that half a day or so on the internet sufficed for him to lecture the climate experts on their multitude of errors. ( Yes, there are many humorous events to be found in the sphere of climate science ! )
Moderator Response:[TD] I deleted Deplore_This's lengthy cut and paste about Curry, because only a tiny fraction of it was directly relevant to the Models topic of this thread. Despite the baiting that Deplore_This is doing, please let's try to stick to the thread topic. Thanks.
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Deplore_This at 04:15 AM on 4 July 2020Models are unreliable
@Bob Lowlaw 1199
Quit with your sanctimonious crap. It certainly doesn’t reflect well on your scientific reputation. I came here stating that I’m a skeptic and wanted a recommendation for university course on GCM, not to believe one person over another.
Judith Curry was the Chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at a well-respected technical university and was obviously imminently qualified to get the job. I’m not going to post people’s names on the Internet to satisfy your curiosity.
I looked at the Spencer Weart link and I’m already beyond that level. I have read the IPCC reports.
If you were going to scientifically challenge Judith Curry’s opinions that I referenced you would point to published scientific scrutiny and not just make juvenile comments. The more emotional you become the more you add to her credibility in my eyes.
Regards.
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MA Rodger at 03:58 AM on 4 July 2020Hansen's 1988 prediction was wrong
Nylo @62,
It is good to see we make progress, but it is not giant strides.
While you do rush past many aspects of this matter that do require consideration and perhaps have dropped a few beads off the abacus before reaching your assessment that the Hansen et al Scenario A results "seem to be off by approximately 44%", I perhaps would flag up the point that climatologists do use complex climate models for a reason.
On the CH4, I don't find the -200ppb value you arrive at for the 2010-20 difference between Scenario A and 'actual'. And I'm not aure that is a useful measure even if it were correct.
The Scenario A increase from1400ppb at 0.6%, 1% then 1.5% yields roughly the 1500ppb and 1650ppb 1970-80 seen in Lacis et al Table 1. Running forward, that gives 2984ppb for 2019, and an increase over the decade from 2009 of 413ppb. The measured CH4 levels (from ESRL) are 1794ppb and 1867ppb, a 2009-19 rise of 73ppb. Thus 'Actual' - Scenario A = 340ppb. But do also note that the 'actual' CH4 increase 1988-2019 is also similarly less that the Scenario A projection for the two preceeding decades.
And while you might imagine we could put that CO2 assessment to bed as the concentrations projected by Scenario A and 'actual' are entirely similar, the assessment of the resulting forcing from such a CO2 increase has been revised in the years since 1988. As per Fig b1, the 1988 assessment was a non-feedback equilibrium temperature increase for 2xCO2 of +1.2ºC. Yet today that is put at +1.0ºC, a significant difference in the underlying forcing.
To complete this analysis will require an item by item assessment. A quick back-of-fag-packet calculation suggests to me that adding all the forcings from the different GHGs shows the 1988-2019 projections of Scenario A to be 200% of 'actual'. I'm not surprised to see that is roughly what is shown in Fig 4 of the Advanced OP above. So, without considering negative forcings, we should expect Scenario A to be showing a lot more warming than 'actual'.
If you wish, we could work through this assessment. But that does lead to the need to calculate the resulting warming. Climatologists turn to their models at that point. Maybe we can dodge that with a short cut. Yet reaching that objective is, on our past performance, not a quick exercise to see through to a conclusion.
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Bob Loblaw at 03:05 AM on 4 July 2020Models are unreliable
Deplore_This:
Who tells you she is "credible"? On what basis are they credible?
You have chosen who you are going to believe. That is not the sign of a skeptic. You have bought into the shite they are selling to you. There are lots of places on the internet that will point out the crap you have read that is confirming your bias.
Go read the Spencer Weart link I posted earlier.
Have you read the IPCC reports, or do you just read the comments about the IPCC that you get from your "credible" sources?
I agree with Tom Dayton. You are not here to learn anything.
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Deplore_This at 02:44 AM on 4 July 2020Models are unreliable
@Bob Lowlaw 1197
As I stated Judith Curry was the Chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at my alma mater. I don’t know her personally but I know people who do and they tell me she is credible. As a courtesy I reviewed your links and I don’t see anything that refutes that opinion. It appears to me that Judith Curry is a scientist who disputes some of the “group think” and is shunned and unfunded. If the climate science community can not engage in open debate then it is not practicing science. As a climate skeptic I am accused of not believing science but without open debate it is not science.
Bob, I believe Judith Curry before I believe you. So my dilemma remains and I’m not sure what to do next. Thank you for your response.
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Bob Loblaw at 02:16 AM on 4 July 2020Models are unreliable
Deplore_This:
Judith Curry is not, I repeat, not, a reliable source of information. She peddles "uncertainty", and much of what she says is simply wrong. Start here:
https://skepticalscience.com/skeptic_Judith_Curry.htm
and continue here:
https://www.desmogblog.com/judith-curry
In addition, pretty much anything published by the GPWF is full of crap:
https://www.desmogblog.com/global-warming-policy-foundation
Same for the Climate Intelligence Foundation:
https://www.desmogblog.com/climate-intelligence-foundation-clintel
You need to find better sources of information. You're paying attention to people that are selling shite to you.
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