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Comments 9051 to 9100:
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Eclectic at 20:15 PM on 12 November 2019The Experts Have Spoken: Disbanded Particulate Pollution Panel Finds EPA Standards Don’t Protect Public Health
We don't have the means to shift your comment but please feel free to copy and repost it to the appropriate thread. It's certainly congruent with our observations, and worth noting in the right place.
Independently, I can supply a confirmation (semi-quantitative) of a spike in "climate inquiries" in September this year. Though I wouldn't care to speculate whether the surge of interest comes from the activities of "St Greta of Arc(tic)" or from the Extinction Rebellion actions or from climate action week or whatever.
I am a fan of the excellent & amusing Youtube video series produced by Potholer54 (science journalist Peter Hadfield). These debunk climate myths and expose the fabrications and misrepresentations of some of the prominent Denialist propagandists.
As a little project to engage some of my spare moments, in June this year (and through up until today) I jotted down at intervals the cumulative viewing numbers for each of Potholder54's videos. Now typically, a new video receives a flurry of viewings, presumably mostly from notified subscribers of the series . . . and then the viewing rate decays to a lower level (which might be only 5~10 per day for certain videos, yet over 100 per day for the more popular videos).
However, I noticed a surge in viewing rates in late September through to mid October. The most prominent surges were for about 10 particular videos ~ where the viewing rates rose to around 3~5x the usual background rate.
So, quite a remarkable increase. (Numbers have fallen away since then.)
My record-keeping has been more casual than rigorous, and I don't have a spreadsheet record to permit better analysis.
Not sure how much more can be teased out of this information: but for those who are interested, these are probably the "most surged" ten titles :-
1. 1.Climate Change - the scientific debate
25. 23-Medieval Warm Period - fact vs fiction
28. 26-Science vs the Feelies
33. Response to "The Global Warming Hoax Lord Monckton & Stefan Molyneux"
34. Response to "DEBUNKED : Top 5 "Climate Change" Myths by Louder with Crowder
35. Are humans contributing only 3% of CO2 in the atmosphere?
39. Top 10 climate change myths
40. A conservative solution to global warming (Part 2)
47. How accurate are scientific predictions about climate?
Warning: the left-hand numbers are the numeration used by Youtube for the videos. But some of the early videos have an older numeration which is incorporated in the video title [as you see, above]. Easy to confuse!
Science vs the Feelies is a particularly amusing and instructive video, regarding the "intuitive" thinking behind some Denialists.
Regular readers at SkS may enjoy the videos, and may gain something useful from the comment columns underneath. Of course I don't mean from the Usual Suspects / the trolls / the loonies etc ~ but I mean that one must admire the deft way Potholer54 responds to them. He emphasizes that he is not presenting his opinions, but is simply presenting the science (which is found not in newspapers & blogs, but is found in the peer-reviewed scientific papers of respected scientific journals).
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Philippe Chantreau at 04:29 AM on 12 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Alan Lowey,
You have this wrong. There is a large, well established body of litterature in astronomy and mathematics, going back well over a hundred years, that shows how planets influence each other's orbits. This body of litterature is full of precise calculations that you have not shown to be wrong. It is incumbent on you to show how all these scientists and mathematicians before you were wrong, not the other way around. You are the one who needs to show some work because you are the one making wild incoherent claims.
Moderator Response:[DB] That user has recused himself from further participation here, finding the onus of the burden of proof and adherence to the Comments Policy too onerous.
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MA Rodger at 01:50 AM on 12 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Alan Lowey @43,
This is all very simple. Normally I would not expect to have to show the arithmetic.
Jupiter is 25,800-times the mass of the moon. Its closest approach to Earth is 1,636 further away than the moon is. (Note that your 0.00054% for the ratio of Jupiter's influence on Earth's tides is an approximate value deriving from your LINZ quote [see @33] which said Venus had 0.0054% the influence of the moon and that Jupiter was "ten times smaller than Venus.") If you calcuate 25,800/(1,636^3) the result yields 0.00059%. So it is indeed ten times smaller than Venus.
So the LINZ value bears out.
But importantly, this is the effect of Jupiter on Earth's tides. The influence of Jupiter on Earth's orbit and thus its impact on the ice age cycles and the 'glacial tides' that result is an inverse-square relationship not an inverse-cube. The impact is thus greater and thus significant.
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Alan Lowey at 01:40 AM on 12 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Post#41
See this paper: A Causality Problem For Milankovitch (Karner, Muller)
Summary
According to the Milankovitch theory, changes in the incident solar radiation, called insolation, in the Northern Hemisphere provide the driving force for global glacial cycles. In their Perspective, Karner and Muller discuss recent studies of corals from around the world that shed doubt on the applicability of the theory to the termination of the penultimate glaciation. The authors argue that a fresh, unbiased look at the data is warranted.
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Alan Lowey at 00:39 AM on 12 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
MA Rodger
You're missing the point. The issue we're talking about is the gravitational effect of Jupiter on the Earth. LINZ correctly calculates that the gravitational effect is 0.00054% of the effect of the Moon. They correctly state that this is negligible.
If you think that this is wrong, then you'll need to show your workings.
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Thank you for the putting the link. It would be great if we could move on to discuss it in more detail.
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jabell at 00:17 AM on 12 November 2019CSLDF: Here’s How Science Has Suffered During the First 1,000 Days of Trump
(Doug_bostrom @ 3) Thanks for the “offer”. I am fundamentally a lurker on sites like SkS and RealClimate, with no direct contribution to climate science. My background is physical photochemistry with lots of years of college chemistry teaching and extracurricular hands-on workshops for teachers at all levels advocating and demonstrating activity-based instruction. Over the past decade, I have tried to learn the fundamentals of climate science and climate disruption, so they are incorporated in my workshops. The message now is that familiar activities and concepts are also a part of climate science and can be used to bring it into the classroom without requiring large amounts of extra time (that isn’t available). Preparing materials for these workshops makes me hypersensitive to nuances of presentation, which you have observed. Thank you for your understanding.
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MA Rodger at 21:44 PM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Alan Lowey @39,
I'm not too sure it takes much thought to grasp the message I present @38. It is true that an inverse-cube effect will reduce with distance quicker than a lower order relationship but the diameter of the moon or the sun is an irrelevance. Thus your eyeball and pea visualisation is irrelevant. Do note that the relative effect of sun & moon on the Earth's tides can be calculated. Relative to the moon, the sun is 389-times more distant but 27-million-times heavier. Thus if, as your LINZ reference notes:-
"The Earth-Sun system is also subject to similar gravitational and centrifugal forces but due to the Sun's greater distance they have less than half the strength of the lunar-related forces. As a consequence, the solar-related residual forces and resulting bulges are correspondingly smaller."
If this LINZ statement is correct (and I have no reason to doubt it), it would require an inverse-cube relationship to reduce the sun's tidal influence on Earth to "less than half the strength of the lunar-related forces," indeed down to 45% of that of the moon.
On a quite seperate matter, the paper referenced @40, Muller & MacDonald (1997), is linked here.
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Alan Lowey at 20:35 PM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
A quote from the paper referenced in post#40:
"We will also show that a previously ignored astronomical cycle, that of the orbital inclination, passes the spectral tests failed by the eccentricity. In addition the cycles precede the effects, and thus have no causality problem. Although the orbital inclination does not affect the insolation and therefore was ignored by previous analysts, the match to the spectrum and bispectrum is excellent, and so a linking mechanism to climate should be sought."
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Alan Lowey at 20:18 PM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
With reference to my post#37:
Please refer to: Origin of the 100kyr Glacial Cycle: Eccentricity or Orbital Inclination (Muller, MacDonald).
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Alan Lowey at 20:14 PM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
MA Rodger
As I've said before, just quoting without deep thought isn't sufficient.
The effect your referring to is only relevant when two astronomical bodies are relatively close together. The example of the Earth and Moon is relevant because the scale can be compared to your eye being the size of the Earth and the Moon being a pea held at arm's length.
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MA Rodger at 19:51 PM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Alan Lowey @34,
I'm not totally sure what you are asking of me but the fact that tidal forces are inverse-cube is plainly set out in the Tidal Force Wikipedia page:-
"The tidal force acting on an astronomical body, such as the Earth, is directly proportional to the diameter of that astronomical body [which for the Earth remains constant] and inversely proportional to the cube of the distance from another body producing a gravitational attraction, such as the Moon or the Sun."
Is that the sort of justification you were after?
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Alan Lowey at 19:47 PM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Also note that Earth has an inclination cycle of exactly 100,000yrs as opposed to two eccentricity cycles which can be averaged to 108,000yrs.
The inclination cycle is therefore, on the face of it, a better fit of the data.
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Alan Lowey at 19:29 PM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
MA Rodger
Can you provide a link or quote please to justify your assertions.
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MA Rodger at 19:23 PM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Alan Lowey @34,
If you can accept that tidal effects are a product of the inverse-cubed relationship and the orbital wobbles the product of the inverse-squared relationship, doesn't then your correct/incorrect convert to correct/correct? There is no need for "a new physics with regard to gravity."
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Alan Lowey at 17:34 PM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Philippe Chantreau, MA Rodger
We all need to keep thinking logically for ourselves and not just quote research paper conclusions as if they are fact set-in-stone. All theories are work-in-progress until a Theory of Everything has been established.
The two UniverseToday articles can't be directly compared as 'evidence'. Let me explain why.
The Precession cause is given as "by the tidal forces from the Sun and Moon". This agrees with the information from LINZ.
The Tilt cause is not mentioned.
The Eccentricity, 100,000yr cycle, cause is given as the planetary influence of Jupiter and Saturn. This doesn't agree with LINZ.
The second article refers to a 405,000yr cycle, via the gravitational effects of Venus and Jupiter. This doesn't agree with LINZ but at least they have some evidence in rocks that the cycle does exist.
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The logical conclusion is that LINZ is both correct/incorrect and that the causes of the 100,000yr and 405,000yr cycles are both correct/incorrect.
This does take some mental agility. The basic law of Newtons gravitational attraction doesn't reconcile with the amount of perturbation required to create such significant orbital changes.
The only logical conclusion is a new physics with regard to gravity. The issue is solved by the notion of a strong gravitational interaction between the cores of the planetary bodies when on the same plane. We tend to think of planetary motions in two dimensions but it's the third dimension, the inclination, which has been omitted from deep thought.
I know this sounds as if I must be insane to doubt the entire scientific community but my position is one of logic.
I don't expect anyone to leap to my side and accept that I'm making a valid logical point. It takes a lot of time to be able to comprehend the issues I'm raising.
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MA Rodger at 16:10 PM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
In the circumstance, the LINZ webpage being cited @23. 25 & 29 may be worth quoting from.
"What about the planets? Venus exerts the greatest gravitational pull on the Earth of all the planets but, at just 0.0054% of the effect of the Moon, makes no real impression. Despite being the largest planet, Jupiter's greater distance means that its influence is ten times smaller than Venus. So the Moon and Sun are the only celestial bodies that have any significant gravitational impact on the Earth."
There is a difference between a planet having a "significant gravitational impact on the Earth" (with respect to tides) and a planet having a significant gravitational impact in the Earth's orbit. It is the tidal influence of Jupiter that is "ten times smaller" than Venus's. A tidal influence is an inverse cube relationship. The orbital gravitational influence is the better-known inverse square relationship. And thus the orbital influence of Jupiter is greater than that of Venus.
Of course, the complex interaction between the orbiting planets is such that all are part of an orbiting system of significant stability. Moving one of them in its orbit can have unexpected results. Thus you can, for instance, find papers (see article here) describing the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit being most sensitive to the orbit of Saturn even though for Earth, Saturn's gravity varies perhaps 8-times less than Venus's, 13-times less than Jupiter's.
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kiwironnie at 14:27 PM on 11 November 2019Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
Scaddenp, thanks. Are you aware of any ongoing monitoring of the ratio of human produced CO2 isotopes vs naturally occuring. This seems like such a key figure that it is surprising perhaps that there aren't six monthly Internet broadcasts in large neon numbers!! Clearly though sampling would somehow need to be representative, and I don't understand how that can be achieved.
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kiwironnie at 14:12 PM on 11 November 2019Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
Thanks Eclectic, very much appreciate your taking the time to respond so fully and in such a straightforward manner. Am not aware of any other obvious absorbtion mechanism. Photosynthetic 'real estate' (leaf area) is surely more important than biomass. (Rain forest culling is bad news.) Got me seriously thinking!
Also now need to be looking at relationship between CO2 concentrations and reflection of relevant parts of the spectrum (overlap with water vapour etc).
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Philippe Chantreau at 09:02 AM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
For the reader wandering here who is interested and willing to read beyond the 5 year old level:
https://www.universetoday.com/39012/milankovitch-cycle/
Venus and Jupiter's effect:
https://www.universetoday.com/139198/jupiter-and-venus-change-earths-orbit-every-405000-years/
Brings to this paper:
https://www.pnas.org/content/115/24/6153
Moderator Response:[DB] Inflammatory snipped.
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scaddenp at 08:55 AM on 11 November 2019Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
The two strong facts here are:
1/ CO2 concentrations are rising in the atmosphere and the observed increase in surface radiation is precisely as expected from the math.
2/ The decrease in O2 and the changing isotopic concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is consistant with the increase being from FF use.
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Eclectic at 08:51 AM on 11 November 2019Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
Kiwironnie, for convenience we probably should revert to using GigatonsCarbon (GtC) rather than CO2 mass. Particularly so, when discussing the biomass which is absorbing (very roughly!) 25% of the fossil CO2 emissions.
You will find a vast amount of discussion of the topic of atmospheric residual CO2 emissions and of the oceanic absorption of CO2.
Absorption of CO2 by rock weathering is far too slow to contribute to the short term (a century or two) picture.
As you say, that leaves [excuse pun] the increase of plants as the third factor. Can you think of another factor that would absorb or sequester additional carbon?
Land-based plants are the predominant biomass; bacteria/ fungi/ animals are only a small contributor to biomass, relatively. (Note that modern agriculture tends to reduce soil fungal mass.)
Zaichun Zhu et al., 2016 estimates plant biomass in the region of 450~500 GtC . . . which we must compare with 10 Gtc of fossil carbon emissions as an annual output.
I have not seen a quantification of the (satellite-observed) "greening of Earth". Area of leaf (as leaf area index) has increased distinctly over the past 30+ years. But what about plant biomass ~ which would seem beyond the satellites' capabiity? Example case: rainforest clearing is presumably a carbon "negative" compared with the establishment of pastures or palm oil plantings, which have lower biomass.
From all this, it would seem that we should not expect an exponential "absorption feedback" from plant biomass increase. We will be fortunate if there is a linear biomass increase! ( I haven't found the source, but I recall a recent report that the observed "rate of greening" is slowing down ~ so I don't know if that was a reliable observation, despite its plausability, and neither do I know the more important relation to actual biomass.)
Ceiling capacity for plant biomass is a difficult question. There was a huge plant biomass back in the Carboniferous era. However, conditions are vastly different in the modern era, for plant biomass is greatly reduced by the presence of vertebrate herbivores nowadays (plus other human actions . . . including the food consumption by that "megafauna" called humans).
And judging from the long-term upward trend of the Keeling Curve, we cannot expect that a planetary greening will be of major benefit in reducing the CO2 / Global Warming problem.
Moderator Response:[DB] The Earth stopped getting greener 20 years ago.
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/earth-stopped-getting-greener-20-years-ago/
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Philippe Chantreau at 08:48 AM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
I suggest you try to read beyond the level of a 5 year old. Then again,m you seem rather refractory to advice, and keep digging...
Moderator Response:[PS] Inflammatory remarks dont help, violate comments policy. Try again (though I know how you feel).
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scaddenp at 06:32 AM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Multi-body gravitational system are complex and well studied, and the influence of other bodies most certainly affected the orbital parameters of earth when accumulated over billions of years. There is a massive literature of this going back to Poincare if not further. Jupiter and Saturn have no significant effect ocean tides.
See for instance this paper or this one.
The wobbles in earth orbit affect climate through the distribution of sun on continents, not via any direct affect on climate.
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Alan Lowey at 05:46 AM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Philippe Chantreau
I understand that the SkS policy is to try to debunk claims made by others which contradict what their bloggers have stated in the articles.
The LINZ article states that only the Sun and Moon have significant gravitational effects on the Earth. The OP article above, tries to state that the gravitational effect of Jupiter causes "bulges and wobbles in the Earth's orbit around the Sun". This is an incorrect statement based on the information given by LINZ.
A five year old could tell you that.
Moderator Response:[DB] The LINZ article is clearly dealing with the effects of the various bodies in the solar system on oceanic tides (liquid bodies of water) on Earth and on short timescales only. Try reading the article for actual context.
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Philippe Chantreau at 04:49 AM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
In case anyone is wondering, the LINZ quote cited by Alan in post 23 figures in the section of the LINZ web site titled "The cause and nature of tides"; it treats exclusively of oceanic tides and the comment about gravity of other planets pertains to oceanic tides, not orbital alterations of the Earth.
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Philippe Chantreau at 04:38 AM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Alan,
These subects indeed are not easy and that's why you should not meddle with them, since it is painfully obvious that you are unable to comprehend any of it.
First of all if you are going to use quotation marks, like you did in post # 23, do not include an imaginary statement in them, especially after you really quoted actual words by others. That is a very suspect way of operating, suggesting an intent to deceive.
Second, you are so obviously out of your depth that not one of your comments is worth bothering with. Your claims about education and training made early in you first comments appear highly dubious in light of all the following: your unability to do even the most basic fact checking before spouting nonsense, comments about gravity that reveal a profound ignorance of the subject, comments about tides shown to be wildly nonsensical, followed by others that do nothing but distract from how inept the original comments were, and an overall lack of scientific literacy, demonstrated by more comments so inane as "water vapor in clouds."
You persist in not educating yourself about tides and invoke "new physics" that are unnecessary and that you do not bother to try to explain.
Third, just because you do not understand something and are unable to reproduce it does not make it impossible. That logical fallacy is called argument from incredulity. Milankovitch cycles are very real, and astonomical calculations are very precise. Back in the 19th century, Urbain le Verrier caculated the existence of Neptune from variations in the orbit of Uranus, even though they are over 10 AUs apart and Uranus has 27 moons, including some fairly massive ones. Neptune is smaller than Jupiter, Uranus a lot larger than Earth, and they are much farther apart than Earth and Jupiter are from each other.
Just as you were shown to be completely off on Dansgaard-Oeschger events, you are now revealing yourself too incompetent on this subject to produce any interesting reflection. Fess up and learn. You have a lot of that to do before you can lecture others.
Your continued persistance in trying to appear as knowing better, combined with comments that can only be possible with a combination of ignorance and incomprehension, make you appear like a complete fool. Every new comment digs your hole deeper. You should stop.
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kiwironnie at 04:37 AM on 11 November 2019Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
So Eclectic you are describing a compounding, of 750 (in balance) then 30 + 30 + 30 ... and so on per annum. Consequently double the weight in 25 years, less what can be absorbed. The next question(s) then is at what are the absorbtion feedback mechanisms (such as planetary greening), how quickly can they react and what is their ceiling capacity?
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Alan Lowey at 04:15 AM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Correction: in post#20, I should have said "Spring tide" instead of "King tide".
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Tom Dayton at 03:07 AM on 11 November 2019It's the ocean
Alexb: How oceans are warmed by atmospheric greenhouse gasses is explained in this post
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Alan Lowey at 00:36 AM on 11 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Eclectic
I have read the OP article thoroughly, many times. It isn't just about reading, it's also about taking time and deep thinking. These subjects aren't easy.
Could please read my post #23 in the same manner.
The gravitational influence of Jupiter is 0.00054% of the effect of the Moon. It therefore cannot alter the Earth's orbital dynamics, as claimed.
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Eclectic at 23:41 PM on 10 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Alan , it is there in the OP article, and in the footnotes. In plain English. Please read through again, with understanding, about the planetary gravities and "glacial tides" connection.
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Eclectic at 23:35 PM on 10 November 2019It's the ocean
Alexb @51 ,
why are you suggesting that the 15um wavelength is "the only relevant band" for oceanic heating?
Rather, the ocean gains heat variously by that old triad: conduction/ convection/ and radiation.
Admittedly it is only my own personal anecdotal evidence ~ but I can assure you that every time I have swum beneath the ocean surface, or scuba-dived into the depths . . . it was not pitch black, and I could see all around me. Radiation, presumably, in the 0.4~0.7um band. From above.
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John Mason at 23:19 PM on 10 November 2019Ynyslas, western Wales – a place made by climate change
Re #4 - yes another hint at a once-different geographical arrangement!
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Alexb18675 at 22:21 PM on 10 November 2019It's the ocean
Just one or two problems.. The oceans are warmer than the atmosphere and therefore cannot be heated in this way. The atmospheric Arctic temperatures are always sub zero which prohibits melting. Secondly, the mechanism described for oceanic heating relies on down welling IR. It must be remembered that the only relevant band here is 15μm, which can only penetrate up to 3mm of the ocean surface. The beer analogy is wrong as the beer is cooler than the surrounding environment. This is not the case with oceans.
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Alan Lowey at 20:10 PM on 10 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
The author states:
"Jupiter and Saturn affect Earth's orbital dynamics"
This is in complete contrast to the professional article "The Cause and Nature of the Tides" by the Land Information of New Zealand (LINZ). This states quite clearly:
"What about the planets? Venus exerts the greatest gravitational pull on the Earth of all the planets but, at just 0.0054% of the effect of the Moon, makes no real impression. Despite being the largest planet, Jupiter's greater distance means that it's influence is ten times smaller than Venus. So the Moon and Sun are the only celestial bodies that have any significant gravitational impact on the Earth."
I'm guessing that your reply will be something like:
"Jupiter's gravity, despite being just 0.00054% of the effect of the Moon, has feedback loops which amplifies this near invisible influence, to create sea level changes of 120m."
The numbers just don't stack up. Even if they were anyway near close, there's still another logical error. Jupiter's gravitational influence would be acting all the time, not just on a 100,000yr cycle.
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Eclectic at 19:29 PM on 10 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Correction : that should be Alan @19
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Eclectic at 19:28 PM on 10 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Alan @20 ,
the "glacial tides" being influenced by the gravity of Jupiter & Saturn . . . is explained within the text of the OP article.
It is also explained a second time, in Footnote 1.
And explained again in Footnote 2. And also explained in Footnote 6.
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Eclectic at 19:19 PM on 10 November 2019Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
Kiwironnie @334 , adding a new 30 thousand million tons of CO2 quickly and repetitively (= annually) would seem quite a lot, to many people ! With or without knife edges.
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kiwironnie at 18:58 PM on 10 November 2019Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
'.. our output of 29 gigatons of CO2 is tiny compared to the 750 gigatons .. it adds up because the land and ocean cannot absorb all of the extra CO2. About 40% of this additional CO2 is absorbed.'
That CO2 natural sources and sinks are on such a knife edge balance that an additional 4% created by man cannot be fully absorbed strikes me as being either an amazing coincidence, incorrect, or there is some other mechanism creating such a balance that is not described here.
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Alan Lowey at 18:16 PM on 10 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
The new physics explanation is that a strong gravitational attraction exists between the inner cores of planetary bodies and the Sun, when they are on the same 'plane of angular momentum'.
This new physics scenario can then be applied to the Moon orbiting the Earth. The King tides, referred to in the intro text, would therefore be due to the Earth and Moon aligned on the 'local plane of angular momentum'.
Another way of describing the Glacial tides would be to say that they are caused by King tides due to the alignment of the Earth, Sun and planets on the plane of angular momentum.
The language makes it sound much more complicated than it really is. A visual simulation model would convey this new physics idea without any problem at all.
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Alan Lowey at 16:55 PM on 10 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
There's a logical error given in the intro text of this topic. The author states that 'Glacial tides', referring to the advance and retreat of glaciation on the 100,000yr cycle, is due to the 'orbital influence' of Jupiter and Saturn.
The explanation given in the LINZ The Cause and Nature of Tides, states that Jupiter and Saturn have a negligible influence on the tides (with respect to 'the standard version of' gravity).
How can these two opposing views be reconciled without the new physics I'm suggesting?
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Alan Lowey at 14:54 PM on 10 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
The Moon orbits in the same direction as the Earth rotates, prograde. Because the Earth rotates at a faster rate than the Moon's orbit, the tidal bulge appears to be ahead.
I'm saying that if the Earth didn't rotate, the Moon would be ahead of the tidal bulge.
The image I have in my head is a strong gravitational interaction between the innermost cores of the two bodies. In this scenario, there is a delay for the initial inner bulge to reach the surface.
Because every single schoolchild is taught that "the Moon pulls on the oceans" it's extremely difficult for the average person to comprehend any alternative explanation.
Incidentally, in a book about the science within the Koran, they say that the tides are "Waves upon Waves upon Waves". This just happens to fit the alternative suggestion I'm trying to explain.
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Philippe Chantreau at 14:38 PM on 10 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Word salad in the "not even wrong" category. The basics of gravity are laughing.
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Alan Lowey at 14:23 PM on 10 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
The point I'm making is that we don't easily observe the supposed direct gravitational effect upon the clouds as we do the oceans. There's no real reason why the effect shouldn't be observed with the naked eye.
The fact that the Moon orbits ahead of the ocean tide and not directly in-line lends itself to the notion of new physics.
See: Land Info NZ, The Nature and Cause Of The Tides.
The atmospheric tides are even more delayed. This kind of detail which contradicts the basics of gravity gets harder and harder to find using a web search.
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barry17781 at 08:55 AM on 10 November 2019Ynyslas, western Wales – a place made by climate change
"Bendigeidfran, and the aforementioned hosting sailed towards Ireland. The ocean was not extensive [back] then: he went by wading. There used to be nothing except two rivers called the Lli and the Archen. And after that the ocean spread out, and the sea flooded the kingdoms. Then he advanced, carrying all the string-minstrels on his back, making for the land of Ireland[
— Branwen Ferch Llyr
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nigelj at 06:19 AM on 10 November 2019Video: California Wildfires & Climate Change
Australia's state of New South Wales is currently experiencing an unusually intense and early bush fire season here.
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Philippe Chantreau at 06:07 AM on 10 November 2019It's a 1500 year cycle
Since this whole pile of nonsense relies on a very exact timing and Rahmstorf's interpretation in the paper above of a rigid cyclicity with a 1470 years period, let's consider the state of the science following the Rahmstorf (2003) paper.
The timing of D.O. events has been in fact the subject of considerable debate. Obrochta, Miyahara, Yokoyama & Crowley (2012) injected much doubt as to the true cyclic nature of the events and the duration of the period. They have some pretty strong language:
"Our new results suggest that the “1500-year cycle” may be a transient phenomenon whose origin could be due, for example, to ice sheet boundary conditions for the interval in which it is observed. We therefore question whether it is necessary to invoke such exotic explanations as heterodyne frequencies or combination tones to explain a phenomenon of such fleeting occurrence that is potentially an artifact of arithmetic averaging."In addition, solar cycles are pretty good candidates to figure as the initial forcings in the events: "Results from the most well-dated, younger interval suggest that the original 1500 ± 500 year cycle may actually be an admixture of the ∼1000 and ∼2000 cycles that are observed within the Holocene at multiple locations. In Holocene sections these variations are coherent with 14C and 10Be estimates of solar variability."
Another European team 5 years earlier came to even stronger conclusions about the timing and cyclicty of the events. P. D. Ditlevsen, K. K. Andersen, and A. Svensson (2007) state:
"Here we present statistical significance tests of this periodicity. The detection of a periodicity relies strongly on the accuracy of the dating of the DO events. Here we use both the new NGRIP GICC05 time scale based on multi-parameter annual layer counting and the GISP2 time scale where the periodicity is most pronounced. For the NGRIP dating the recurrence times are indistinguishable from a random occurrence." So, in other words, when dating is refined in the ice core, the periodicity evaporates.
It should be furthermore noted that D.O. events belong in a rather ancient past, as there has not been any since the last one observable in the GRIP/GISP cores, about 25,000 years ago.
The Holocene shows another cycle of Bond events, of much smaller magnitude, most of them without a clear climate signal. The periodicity of the Bond events is closer to 1,000 years. Perhaps Alan's creative gravity maths can take us from 1800 to 1500 to 1000. All this can be found through a quick search of D.O. events, Heinrich events and Bond events.
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Philippe Chantreau at 05:17 AM on 10 November 2019It's a 1500 year cycle
You do not expose anything like a "thought experiment" in your ramblings. You stated this in post 35 above:
"The obvious choice of a lunar origin was derided by his contemporaries,..."
This was a complete fabrication, as was clearly exposed by Rahmstorf himself in the paper you couldn't bother to read despite using it for your argument. The last 2 lines of the paper are not relevant to any thought experiment. You seem to confuse thought experiment with hypothesis. You're trying to make it look like we are somehow in agreement and that you kind of knew what Rahmstorf said, when in fact it is clear you had no clue whatsoever.
The fundamentals of how we think about gravity is called General Relativity, it has withstood every test thrown at it for the past 100 years. Just like Newton's theory, when it is shown not to be the best explanation, it will still remain valid for all practical purposes within a given domain of application. You are making a bold assertion, and contradicting Rahmstorf himself. It is incumbent to you to support such assertion. A YouTube video does not cut it. You're claiming all the scientists at NASA, NOAA and elsewhere have it wrong, show your work. Without that, you've got nothing but hot air. I can't wait to see how you reduce 1800 years to 1470.
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Philippe Chantreau at 04:47 AM on 10 November 2019SkS Analogy 20 - The Tides of Earth
Alan Lowey at 14,
This is the most inept thing I have heard in quite a while, and we see some pretty heavy ones on this site. Considering how eager you were to lecture others on the history of tidal science, you should have bothered to read the wiki that I linked.
Let's first clarify that clouds are not made of water vapor, but of liquid or solid water. Then we can clarify your question/thought experiment and even generalize it under the following form: "if the combined gravitational pull of the Sun and Moon makes the Oceans move, should we not also observe a similar movement in the atmosphere (where, by the way, water vapor is a well mixed gas)?
Well, it is painfully obvious that you have zero familiarity with the very stuff you lectured everyone about, and if you had bothered to read the wiki article I linked earlier, you would have found this other one about atmospheric tides:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atmospheric_tide
So the answer to you ill formulated thought experiment is that, indeed, there are tidal movement of the atmosphere. They include other infuences than Sun and Moon, but they exist nonetheless, and you would have known that if you had done the least bit of digging on the subject. You should stop pontificating on matters you don't know anything about.
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william5331 at 04:25 AM on 10 November 2019Video: California Wildfires & Climate Change
Actually, climate change will hit the rich and comfortable pretty hard. Take, for instance, the rich Americans, many of them responsible in big and little ways for climate change, who have retired to Florida and, of course, had to have beach front properties. In fact, more beach was created in many cases by building berms on which their houses sit with canals beside their houses for their boats. One good hurricane and presto' no more houses or boats. All of Florida sits on permeable lime stone so there is no way to stop the incursion of the sea due to sea level rise. Perhaps they will all raise their houses on stilts.
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