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Lou Grinzo at 15:14 PM on 27 February 2011Australia's departing Chief Scientist on climate change
This is the first I've heard of Ms. Sackett, but her stepping down certainly sounds like a serious loss for Australia. Hopefully for all of us she will stay engaged with the climate issue in some influential capacity. I'm glad to see her (and Steve) emphasize the committed warming point. I could not agree more strongly with her assessment that this is a misunderstood detail. I'd had numerous conversations, some of them with long-time, committed environmentalists, who have no clue whatsoever that CO2 has this incredibly inconvenient characteristic. When I tell them about it, usually quoting David Archer (The Long Thaw, p. 162) that 40% of the warming from CO2 emissions up to 2100 will only appear after that date, they're horrified. Some argue with me, saying it can't possibly be that bad, some immediately question the value of fighting the emissions fight at all, which turns into a whole other conversation. This is why I so hate our fixation with the year 2100. To lay people it often sounds as if it's a magic finish line -- keep warming below 2C by then and we've dodged the asteroid. When I tell them it's anything but that simple, they are not happy campers. And as for the value of 2C as a guideline or what happens if we "succeed" in cutting way back on sulfate aerosols and thereby unmask another big dollop of warming, I usually don't mention either one; they're depressed enough by then. -
Tom Curtis at 15:03 PM on 27 February 2011Dispelling two myths about the tropospheric hot spot
TimTheToolMan: 1) It is very probable that Haig et al's result is either due to instrument error or to a atypical circumstances. We know this both because ground base observations of visible light show the opposite effect, and because the detected climate response to the solar cycle is opposite in sign to that predicted from Haigh et al's results. 2) However taking Haigh et al's results at face value, they would predice a cooling stratosphere and a warming troposphere when the sun approaches a solar minimum, and the reverse as it approaches a solar maximum. As the cooling stratosphere and warming troposphere have been a feature of our atmosphere for at least 3 solar cycles now, it is unlikely that a forcing tied to that cycle is the cause. To the extent that it is idiosyncratic, it faces the further problem that the decline in stratospheric temperatures has been weakest when it was observed:
(Channels ordered in terms of decreasing altitude. Still higher channels show greater trends, but I could not find any graphs of their trends up later than about 2007.)
3) Even ignoring the temporal signature, the Haigh et al hypothesis faces a problem in the spatial signature. Based on the fact that it predicts a peak of ozone at 45 km, and declining ozone and UV below that level, it predicts a cooling lower stratosphere, and a warming or constant temperature mid to upper stratosphere. In fact, the opposite is observed, with very low cooling trends in the lower stratosphere, and a very strong cooling trend in the upper stratosphere.
The low trend in the lower stratosphere is because decline in O3 concentrations results in more UV penetrating to that level, which tends to warm that level, and effect counterbalanced by the cooling effect of increased CO2. In the upper stratosphere, both increased CO2 and decreased O3 have a cooling effect, the reinforcement resulting in the strong cooling trend.
In fact, the observed spatial patern of cooling and warming in the stratosphere, coupled with the observed changes in radiation at different frequencies is only consistent with cooling brought about by increased CO2 levels,and decreased O3 levels. Any other effects must be minor in comparison.
4) Finally, a decreasing aerosol optical thickness will also warm the troposphere, and cool the stratosphere; and due to volcanism or its lack, this can be a natural effect. However, aerosol optical thickness has been observed by satellites to be increasing rather than decreasing over the last decade, in large part due to the industrialization of India and China with limited pollution controls. Increassing optical thickness, of course, warms the stratosphere and cools the troposphere, which may be part of the reason for the reduced trends in both regions since 2000.
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NQuestofApollo at 14:51 PM on 27 February 2011It's cooling
@139 Why are we looking at a snapshot of the Arctic in 2011 and comparing it to a thirty year range of the Antarctic from 30 years ago to prove that the globe is warming? -
Marcus at 14:31 PM on 27 February 2011Prudent Risk
"since capitalism depends on fossil fuels, and communism is against capitalism, then being against fossil fuels is being a communist" which is an even more illogical claim when you consider that Capitalist societies did *more* to move to renewable energy over the 1970's, 1980's & 1990's than any of the Communist countries did. The reason Russia's environment is now so up the creek is because of their rampant over-use of fossil fuels during the Communist Era. Still, such logic will be lost on the Deniers. -
Tom Curtis at 14:29 PM on 27 February 2011Crux of a Core, Part 1 - addressing J Storrs Hall
Berényi Péter @24, first, it is by no means clear that global temperatures have declined since the Holocene Climactic Optimum. Indermühle et al (2000) " Atmospheric CO2 concentration from 60 to 20 kyr BP from the Taylor Dome ice core, Antarctica" use the CO2 record as a de facto record of global temperatures, possible because of the changing solubility of CO2 with changing sea surface temperatures. Doing so shows an approx 0.5 degree increase in global temperatures since the Holocene Climactic Optimum. This method is not without problems, particularly due to increased CO2 concentrations due to deforestation over that period, however that can be corrected for by comparing rations of C13 to C12. Second, taking Figure 3 above at face value (although it is probably an over estimate of HCO temperatures as previously stated), there was a net decline in mean global temperatures of less than 1 degree C from the HCO to the preindustrial era. This May have occurred despite zero change in globally averaged insolation because of a decline in Northern Hemisphere summer insolation resulting in a cooler arctic, and more ice. The additional ice, of course, results in a higher albedo, and hence lower global temperatures. An equivalent effect occurs in Antarctica in reverse periods, but it is not as strong because at the relevant latitudes, Antarctica has ice sheets rather than sea ice, so there is much less of a change in albedo. -
mike roddy at 14:18 PM on 27 February 2011Australia's departing Chief Scientist on climate change
We really need this woman, and not just you Australians. Let's home Sackett lands where she can do some good- on television, here in the US if it doesn't work out Down Under. -
Rob Honeycutt at 14:03 PM on 27 February 2011Crux of a Core, Part 1 - addressing J Storrs Hall
Pete Dunkelberg @ 21... That is the correct Miller el al 2010. Definitely a long el al list on that one. -
Berényi Péter at 13:57 PM on 27 February 2011Crux of a Core, Part 1 - addressing J Storrs Hall
#17 Daniel Bailey at 12:27 PM on 27 February, 2011 Your comment was deleted due to your contextual usage of the phase "if you actually understand". Those who have a history of pushing the envelope of compliance with the Comments Policy, as you have, will necessarily receive a greater level of comment scrutiny, and less benefit of the doubt, than others do. I see. So I suppose you actually understand why sea surface temperature is decreasing in the tropics during the Holocene (by 1°C or so). Unfortunately I don't. You can check at the NASA GISS Monthly Latitude Insolation page that annual average insolation at TOA (Top of Atmosphere) has been increasing steadily (by 1.2 W/m2) along the equator during the last 10 thousand years (from 416.2 W/m2 to 417.4 W/m2). Perhaps you could explain to all how cooling is caused by increasing irradiation. -
Tom Curtis at 13:32 PM on 27 February 2011Crux of a Core, Part 1 - addressing J Storrs Hall
adelady @18, as an addendum to my 22 based on your comments, the difference between the 2001-2010 average and the 1880-2010 average is 0.5 - 1.0 degrees in the tropical western pacific, and would be greater if the average where a 250 year average. By Tropical Western Pacific I mean the Western Pacific warm pool from which (by memory) Stott et al drew their data. -
Tom Curtis at 13:25 PM on 27 February 2011Crux of a Core, Part 1 - addressing J Storrs Hall
Beryényi Péter, are reproduced @17: 1) The first point to notice is that Stott et al 2004 is one of the plots (dark red) reproduced in Figure 3 of the main article. The full list of data in that figure is here. You will notice that the Western Tropical Pacific only rose above the (global) 2004 temperatures anomally 5,000 years ago, and again 10,000 years ago. At those times, the only Southern Hemisphere data in the above graph (Vostok and Epica) were both significantly below modern temperatures. The net effect is that the average is noticably below 2004 temperatures. That probably overstates the Holocene Climactic Optimum temperatures in that there is a NH bias in the data. The point is, cherry picking two local temperature indices and claiming they represent the global temperature is no more principled than cherry picking one. 2) As per the convention, the "present" in paleoclimate reconstructions is 1950. Stott et al do not mention more recent dates for their data, so the most recent datum on the graph is for 1950. As can be easily verified at GISS, current temperatures in the western Pacific are at least 0.5 degrees warmer than they were in 1950 (comparison of 12 year average centered on 1950.5 with 12 year average ending in 2010). Again, the Western Pacific has only been warmer than this a couple of times, and not during the HCO. The Western Pacific was between 1 and 2 degrees warmer in 2010 than in 1950, making it much warmer than any point on that chart, but issues of resolution mean this may not be an appropriate comparison. Finally, in response to your questions: a) Several examples of cooler locations at those times can be found in Figure 3 above. Indeed, GISP2 (light blue in figure 3) is anticyclical to the Western Pacific data, so that the large peaks in the Western Pacific temperatures coincide with troughs in the Greenland temperatures, so your question is based on a false premise; and b) The anticyclical nature of GISP2 and Western Pacific shows the majority of the variation to be regional in nature, and therefore likely to have primarily regional causes. So, while there may be some connection, you do not show that there is and your question is based on the false assumption of synchrony between GISP2 and Western Pacific temperature peaks. -
Pete Dunkelberg at 13:24 PM on 27 February 2011Crux of a Core, Part 1 - addressing J Storrs Hall
I take it the Miller et al. paper (one really should add the et al., that is the least you can do for all the work that goes into a paper) is this long pdf: Miller et al., "Temperature and precipitation history of the Arctic", Quaternary Science Reviews 29 (2010) 1679--1715. -
boba10960 at 13:24 PM on 27 February 2011Crux of a Core, Part 1 - addressing J Storrs Hall
Hah. Adelady beat me to the point. Also, to reconcile what may appear to be differences in our statements, each bin (average temperature value) has a duration of 250 years (adelady), so the midpoint of the most recent bin is 125 years ago (boba). -
schmoepooh at 13:21 PM on 27 February 2011Australia's departing Chief Scientist on climate change
This is very sad. I would anticipate the denial community will consider using the reduction time lag as an argument for unidentfied variables or non-causal relationships. -
boba10960 at 13:20 PM on 27 February 2011Crux of a Core, Part 1 - addressing J Storrs Hall
BP The figure from Stott is an average temperature estimated using data from three sediment cores in the western equatorial Pacific Ocean. If you download the supplementary data from Nature you will see that the binned (averaged) temperature estimates shown in the figure stop at 125 years ago. Among the three cores there are a total of three individual data points assigned ages of less than 100 years, not very much to say anything about temperatures "today". -
adelady at 13:13 PM on 27 February 2011Crux of a Core, Part 1 - addressing J Storrs Hall
BP / Daniel. I was going to ask whether the "before present" represented the usual 1950 or some other year. So I had a look. "....To estimate the magnitude of the salinity change since the early Holocene we stacked the WTP SW18OC and Mg/Ca records, averaging the data at 250-yr intervals. ... " in the body of the text, and then this as the final sentence. "If so, millennial to centennial scale changes in Holocene ocean thermohaline circulation would be directly affected by ocean–atmosphere processes that have occurred in the tropics." These guys are interested in centennial to millenial periods, so a 250 year average is suitable for at least part of their work. Even if their 'before present' year is more recent than 1950, I cannot see where this work has any more than a tangential relevance to atmospheric warming of the last few decades. This paper seems to be yet another indication that the planet was on a steady, gradual cooling path from the Holocene optimum until excessive GHG release blocked that path. -
Tom Curtis at 12:43 PM on 27 February 2011Climate sensitivity is low
RW1 @143: Science works by verification and observation. In this instance, to verify the Line By Line models, or the Energy Balance models (which give essentially the same results) you would need to verify the physical laws involved, ie, the Beer-Lambert Law, Kirchoff's Law, Planck's Law, Wien's Law and Stefan Boltzmann's Law, not to mention the laws of convective heat transfer in the atmosphere and heat transfer from changes of state of H2O. Having done that, you then need to go through the models line by line to make sure they actually implement the relevant laws appropriately. You also need to have detailed records of the composition and temperature profile of the atmosphere, and confirm that they are correctly entered into the model. You also need to check the emissivity of the various compounds in the atmosphere and make sure they are correctly fed into the model. You have been referred to sources in this discussion where you can do each one of these things, either in little detail (Science of Doom), moderate detail (relevant textbooks) or great detail (relevant scientific papers). You have ignored all of that because, apparently, we cannot find a source that encapsulates all that knowledge into just one sentence. Having done all that, or accepted expert opinion that it was done correctly (which is the sensible approach in that none of the above is in dispute by any practicing scientist including well known skeptics such as Pielke and Spencer), you can then compare the results of the models with observation, as has been done here. In fact, line by line, if given approximately current information on atmospheric composition at each level, models have been shown to be accurate withing less than 1% - again something you have been shown in this thread. With only approximate information, the models are accurate to withing 5% or 0.2 w/m^2 for a doubling of CO2. Again this is not in dispute by any practicing scientist once a few transparent crack pots are excluded. Your problem is not that we are not confirming to how logic or science should work. Your problem is that we are, and for some strange reason, you don't like the answer. -
SoundOff at 12:32 PM on 27 February 2011Australia's departing Chief Scientist on climate change
She “resigned last week smack-bang in the middle of her five-year term”. Perhaps she knows the end is nearer than we think. -
Daniel Bailey at 12:27 PM on 27 February 2011Crux of a Core, Part 1 - addressing J Storrs Hall
Re: Berényi Péter (13) Your comment was deleted due to your contextual usage of the phase "if you actually understand". Those who have a history of pushing the envelope of compliance with the Comments Policy, as you have, will necessarily receive a greater level of comment scrutiny, and less benefit of the doubt, than others do. I reproduce your comment below sans offending phrase: ____________________________________________________________________ Berényi Péter at 08:21 AM on 27 February 2011 "This clearly tells us that oxygen isotope ratios (like the ones used for GISP2) are measuring a local record of temperature for the summit of the Greenland ice sheet, and are not a global proxy" I see. Oxygen isotope and Mg/Ca data from foraminifers retrieved from sediment cores in the western tropical Pacific Ocean are probably not global proxies either. It just shows that not only some pretty cold places got even colder, but one of the warmest spots as well. 2004 Nature, 431, 56-59 DOI: 10.1038/nature02903 Decline of surface temperature and salinity in the western tropical Pacific Ocean in the Holocene epoch Stott, L., Cannariato, K., Thunell, R., Haug, G. H., Koutavas, A., Lund, S.
However, if it is cooler today at both places than it used to be several thousand years ago while global average temperature is higher right now, it follows there should be other places on Earth where it was cooler back then. Could you kindly show us several such examples from the literature?
More importantly, if... the gradual cooling in the tropical western Pacific since the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM), as it is shown in Fig. 3. Stott 2004 has been driven by changes in the tilt of the planet, please share this knowledge with us.
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Rob Honeycutt at 10:33 AM on 27 February 2011Crux of a Core, Part 1 - addressing J Storrs Hall
BP @ 13... Can I suggest that you also take a look at the Byrd station ice core as well? Once again, I think you're trying to pull out one data set that shows what you want to see without doing the full research to see what is going on. It's not a simple answer. Miller 2010 is the paper that addresses the neo-glaciation idea. I suggest that you read that paper. -
TimTheToolMan at 10:29 AM on 27 February 2011Dispelling two myths about the tropospheric hot spot
"Even the author says these results are preliminary -- and small." The author appears to say "In other words, whereas the new satellite measurements call into question computer models of solar output, it does not change the fundamental physics of human-induced global warming." And thats an important result. None of your discussion that you've quoted acknowledges the associated stratospheric cooling and you've all focussed on the surface warming. I'm pointing out that the AGW fingerprint of stratospheric cooling is also effected by this result. I'm not saying AGW is wrong and the sun did it. I'm saying the magnitude of the effect is reduced by this result. The strength of the argument that CO2 is the cause of the observed warming because of stratospheric cooling is lessened because its not the only effect now known to do so. -
michael sweet at 10:19 AM on 27 February 2011Prudent Risk
RSVP, Can you provide evidence that ocean acidification is a local effect only? Perhaps you meant that since I have a fresh water pond in my back yard that when the ocean ecosystems are damaged 30 miles away I will not be affected? -
Tom Curtis at 10:15 AM on 27 February 2011Crux of a Core, Part 1 - addressing J Storrs Hall
Berenyi Peter @13, I would also like to know the answer to that question. The post seemed fine to me, and I was going to comment on it. -
Tom Curtis at 10:10 AM on 27 February 2011Crux of a Core, Part 1 - addressing J Storrs Hall
jg @11, GISP2 data is being abused far more than is made apparent in the above post. Considering Figure 1, one major error is that the end date (marked as the present day) is shown as 2000. In fact, by convention, the "present" is in fact 1950, and is 1950 in the GISP 2 data. What is more, the GISP 2 data actually finishes 95 years before "the present", or in 1855. Further, apart from the obvious fallacy of treating a local climate record with global temperatures, they do so inconsistently in that they use the global record for the last 100 years. If you used the local temperature record throughout, the graph would look like this:
(Note, the two red crosses mark recent ice care temperature proxies - ending in 2009 - at the nearby GRIP drill site. The grey line marks the temperature of a similar increase in temperature from 1855 to the present at GISP2.)
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From Peru at 10:10 AM on 27 February 2011Prudent Risk
"The "skeptics" would have us continue driving the car in the blind hope that the brakes will never give out" It is actually worse than that, the climate system has no brakes (once the planet has warmed, the change is IRREVERSIBLE). All the best we can do is leave the accelerator, hoping that the speed already reached isn't enough to crush ourselves in the giant concrete wall ahead. But this "skeptics" want us to continue to accelerate towards the concrete wall, saying that: "there is not evidence that hitting a concrete wall is dangerous" and claiming that all the physisists, engineers, doctors, firemen and all the people that shout: "stop!" are dishonest people with a hidden agenda, an agenda that includes a range astonishingly large of possibilities, from financial speculation (with carbon credits) to communism (the "logic" is like: since capitalism depends on fossil fuels, and communism is against capitalism, then being against fossil fuels is being a communist) The nonsense of the "skeptics" is so big, that it reminds me the words of Albert Einstein: "There are two infinite things, the Universe and Human Stupidity, and I am not sure of the former" -
Climate sensitivity is low
RW1 - You've repeatedly, and by multiple people, been told what the data is, and continue to argue for your (mis)perception of it. We've told you what the results are - denying the data is the unscientific approach here. Something to think about, RW1 - which is more likely? That everyone's interpretation of LBL analysis of CO2 forcing is somehow blatantly wrong? Or that George White (not published AFAIK, certainly not in climatology) is misinterpreting the results of the model he's run? I'm not asking for an answer from you, but just for you to consider the question. I'm out of this thread until real questions are discussed again. -
Berényi Péter at 09:32 AM on 27 February 2011Crux of a Core, Part 1 - addressing J Storrs Hall
Daniel Bailey, would you explain how Comments Policy was violated by this post? I suppose you thought it was, because you have deleted it. -
TimTheToolMan at 09:21 AM on 27 February 2011Dispelling two myths about the tropospheric hot spot
"The Haigh 2010 paper was discussed in The sun upside down" OK, you have a discussion of the paper but dont relate the result to the possible impacts on the Stratospheric cooling at all. Hence my inability to find it in the context of "Stratospheric cooling" So why does your article indicate that stratospheric cooling cant in part be due to the sun's changes? -
RW1 at 09:07 AM on 27 February 2011Climate sensitivity is low
KR, As stated before, you're just repeating and declaring conclusions I'm already aware of. This is not how science, logic and reasoning works. -
Climate sensitivity is low
RW1 - The 3.7 W/m^2 energy imbalance from doubling CO2 is kept in the Earth climate system, atmosphere and surface. This is the sum result of multiple absorption/emission events distributed throughout the atmosphere, as we've told you, and as (it appears) Gavin Schmidt has repeated. Each of those individually is isotropic, with nearly equal (due to horizon effects) probability of upwards or downwards. The sum radiation change upon doubling CO2 is that a global mean of 3.7 W/m^2 less energy leaves the top of the atmosphere. Shopping around for a different answer won't change that... -
TimTheToolMan at 08:53 AM on 27 February 2011Dispelling two myths about the tropospheric hot spot
I'm not actually sure you understand the argument Dan. This is a relatively new paper (Oct 2010) and looks at the spectral components of the TSI. I did a search for "Stratospheric cooling" and came up with the usual references to TSI increases resulting in a different warming profile to CO2 warming. For example "8.If the warming is due to solar activity, then the upper atmosphere (the stratosphere) should warm along with the rest of the atmosphere. But if the warming is due to the greenhouse effect, the stratosphere should cool because of the heat being trapped in the lower atmosphere (the troposphere). Satellite measurements show that the stratosphere is cooling." But this is an incorrect statement on TSI changes and assumes that all spectra change together. It turns out that this is not correct and so the observed changes since the satellite was put up there indicate a change that ought to mimick the CO2 profile. I'm happy to hear any arguments you have against this, but pointing to "its not the sun" links are irrelevent.Moderator Response: [muoncounter] The Haigh 2010 paper was discussed in The sun upside down and on It's the sun. Search function finds prior threads. Jedi Master DB was right (again). -
RW1 at 08:41 AM on 27 February 2011Climate sensitivity is low
Another question: Do we all agree that not all of the absorbed infrared affects the surface? That a portion of it is directed up out to space and the remaining portion of it is directed down to the surface? -
RickG at 08:38 AM on 27 February 2011Climate sensitivity is low
@138 How easy is it to get fooled? -
Daniel Bailey at 08:36 AM on 27 February 2011Climate sensitivity is low
Here it is: "RW says: 24 Feb 2011 at 8:50 PM Interesting thread. I have a question about some frequently referenced data: I’m wondering if someone can shed some light on this subject for me. I’ve searched around at length all over and cannot find a clear answer. The 3.7 W/m^2 estimated from simulations for the increase in ‘radiative forcing’ from a doubling of atmospheric CO2 – does the 3.7 W/m^2 represent a reduction in the atmospheric window or does it represent the half directed down due to isotropic re-radiation/redistribution (meaning a reduction in the atmospheric window of 7.4 W/m^2)???" [Response: It is the global mean change in outgoing LW flux at the tropopause (integrated over the whole spectrum) for a doubling of CO2. - gavin] [ -Edit: More ensuing discussion follows- ] The Yooper -
Tom Curtis at 08:31 AM on 27 February 2011Climate sensitivity is low
scaddenp @137, out of a morbid curiousity, what thread? -
scaddenp at 07:39 AM on 27 February 2011Climate sensitivity is low
Guys, noticed RW asked at Realclimate: "’m wondering if someone can shed some light on this subject for me. I’ve searched around at length all over and cannot find a clear answer. The 3.7 W/m^2 estimated from simulations for the increase in ‘radiative forcing’ from a doubling of atmospheric CO2 – does the 3.7 W/m^2 represent a reduction in the atmospheric window or does it represent the half directed down due to isotropic re-radiation/redistribution (meaning a reduction in the atmospheric window of 7.4 W/m^2)???" Clearly absolutely nothing we have said has been understood at all. I doubt he will like Gavin's accurate response either. -
Climate sensitivity is low
RW1 - "I'm not getting any 'proof' here of anything, so I'm left to figure it out on my own." Actually, I will have to disagree with you. You've been pointed to the documentation, you have statements from several people who are quite familiar with line-by-line atmospheric calculations, and even George White sees a ~3.6 W/m^2 imbalance with his own runs of the HITRAN code. Unfortunately, as muoncounter pointed out, these efforts are met with disbelief, rejection, and (yes) denial - "I'm going to get to bottom of this. I'll be back when I know and can show the proof". I have the impression from this conversation that you will reject anything that does not conform to your preconceptions, and that is very sad. 3.7 or so W/m^2 is the difference in total planetary emissions upon doubling CO2, the amount of extra IR not leaving at a particular temperature, the change in outward directed energy. Please - we've offered this information honestly and clearly, as the best established data available. I would suggest you consider your own reasons for not believing it, and why you are so insistent that we are wrong. -
Rob Painting at 06:35 AM on 27 February 2011Dispelling two myths about the tropospheric hot spot
Dan, how did you know?.Moderator Response: [Daniel Bailey] Just a feeling.
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70rn at 05:28 AM on 27 February 2011Crux of a Core, Part 1 - addressing J Storrs Hall
@mod KK - cheers for that - probably not a bad idea since the original is 3 >< larger. -
Crux of a Core, Part 1 - addressing J Storrs Hall
Thank you. I'm remain in denial about how often data is grossly misrepresented. I didn't know the GISP2 data was being abused, and quite elegantly, as shown in Hall's animated GIF. FYI: I've recently added GISP2 to my interactive Vostok Viewer. I've juxtaposed GISP2 with EPICA, and you can easily see the drastic mood swings of GISP2 against the gradual changes in EPICA. I look forward to Part 2. jg -
70rn at 04:30 AM on 27 February 2011Crux of a Core, Part 1 - addressing J Storrs Hall
don't mind me - testing the image posting code.
Moderator Response: [Daniel Bailey] Tip: When posting an image, it's considered good form to also post a link to the source for the image. Example for above: Source for image here. -
Rob Honeycutt at 03:54 AM on 27 February 2011Crux of a Core, Part 1 - addressing J Storrs Hall
nigelj @ #1.... Actually, I think a great deal of Watts' work is relying on the misinformation of others. This one originated from J Storrs Hall. Watts is just the central repository for wrong and poorly researched information. -
Philippe Chantreau at 03:45 AM on 27 February 2011Meet The Denominator
Feeble rethoric is an understatement. PT says "This is incorrect, I stated it did not fully support my position, "I was finally able to obtain a full copy of the paper and do not believe it fully meets the list's criteria". None of this changes the fact that I did go through them prior to adding them." That you do not see the irony here confirms that your reading comprehension might not enable you to stick to your own standards, so I'll point it to you. You said you went through the papers before adding them. Then you describe how you "finally" were able to obtain a copy of the Mavromichalaki paper so you then realized it did not meet your criteria. That was after having already included it in the list. That is a confession that either you did not really go through the paper before including it in the list, or that the "going through" means a kind of examination that does not allow you to understand what the paper is about. Perhaps you meant just reading the abstract. In which case, I will challenge you to point what, in the paper's abstract, supports your position. What we see here is not even feeble rethoric any more, I can't really think of a name for it. -
dana1981 at 03:15 AM on 27 February 2011Motl-ey Cruel
Agnostic - I haven't checked the comments for a while, but every commenter besides me was a "skeptic" who thought Motl's error-riddled post was just brilliant. None objected to him banning me. It's possible that he didn't allow any objectionary comments through his iron-fisted moderation process. -
Bibliovermis at 01:56 AM on 27 February 2011Prudent Risk
Negative effects outweigh positive effects on the global scale. It's Not Bad (argument #11) Insisting that negative effects can only be local while positive effects are global is an impressive display of sophistry and willful ignorance since you are a long-time commenter on this site. -
muoncounter at 01:53 AM on 27 February 2011Prudent Risk
RSVP, "a negative effect or threat is very obvious, it is more than likely only a local problem, whereas on a global scale, someone or some species is coming out ahead in some way." I suppose you can go on wearing those rose-tinted glasses for a long while. Since all threats are local, let's go on with our "What! Me worry?" business as usual. Let's take just one local threat: Sea level rise threatens to inundate sections of coastal Louisiana with increasing frequency. No big deal, you say, who cares about a bunch of marsh grass and pelicans? That's a local threat that won't bother anyone, say up Yooper's way, basking in the warm waters of Lake Superior. Heard of Port Fourchon, at an elevation of 0.64 m (2.1 ft)? Sea level there is rising at more than 9mm/yr (a combination of sea level rise and land subsidence). From a 2008 report prepared for the South Louisiana Economic Council: This port services about 90 percent of all deepwater rigs and platforms in the Gulf of Mexico and it is also the host for the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP). We estimate that in 2006 about $63.4 billion worth of oil and natural gas was tied to this port via the LOOP and the offshore platforms the port helps to service. We conservatively estimate that a three-week loss in services from Port Fourchon would lead to: • A loss of $9,994.7 million in sales at U.S. firms; • A loss of $2,890.9 million in household earnings in the U.S., and; • A loss of 77,440 jobs in the nation And that was in 2008! Put storm surge on top of sea level rise and the LOOP goes out of service (and with it, 13% of US oil imports). Do that when oil is already pushing $100/bbl and you've got economic meltdown. No, it's not local; this particular threat will come find you. -
guinganbresil at 01:43 AM on 27 February 2011Deep ocean warming solves the sea level puzzle
I know this question is way out there, but I have to ask. Does the rise of sea level take into account changes in the Earth's radius, or is this considered a constant? -
RSVP at 00:30 AM on 27 February 2011Prudent Risk
When assessing options and yhe negative consequences of global effects, your starting point must account for both positive effects that come as a result of not taking action, as well as any negative effects that would have been there anyway. It is then only the difference that matters. If on the otherhand a negative effect or threat is very obvious, it is more than likely only a local problem, whereas on a global scale, someone or some species is coming out ahead in some way. And since it is impossible to predict all outcomes (in a global sense) until this is possible, "business as usual" is about all you can justify. -
TimTheToolMan at 00:30 AM on 27 February 2011Dispelling two myths about the tropospheric hot spot
"Stratospheric cooling is the real "fingerprint" of enhanced greenhouse vs. natural (e.g. increased solar) warming." From "An influence of solar spectral variations on radiative forcing of climate - Haigh et al" we have... "...since April 2004, have revealed4 that over this declining phase of the solar cycle there was a four to six times larger decline in ultraviolet than would have been predicted on the basis of our previous understanding. This reduction was partially compensated in the total solar output by an increase in radiation at visible wavelengths..." And so compared to the the "previous misunderstanding/simplification of TSI" I'd expect there to be more than expected surface warming and more than expected stratospheric cooling. This is from a natural change in the sun's output that mimicks the CO2 fingerprint.Moderator Response: [Daniel Bailey] "This is from a natural change in the sun's output that mimicks the CO2 fingerprint." You are simply incorrect on this matter. Use the search function to find several threads addressing this meme, as it is the topic of those threads. Muoncounter: I win! (Gané, Gané!) -
Pete Dunkelberg at 00:13 AM on 27 February 2011Crux of a Core, Part 1 - addressing J Storrs Hall
Thanks for this article. The ScienceDirect links aren't working for me at this time, but here is a link for Alley_etal_2010_History_of_the_Greenland_Ice_Sheet__Paleoclimatic_insights.pdf (6.25 Mb). It's a beautiful paper scientifically and aesthetically. There is even a picture of ancient coral at Key Largo Florida. -
70rn at 00:11 AM on 27 February 2011Crux of a Core, Part 1 - addressing J Storrs Hall
Jason Box, PhD from the Byrd polar research center, has as a blog here; - http://www.meltfactor.org/blog/?p=294 - showing the current 2010 greenland ice sheet temperature anomaly at 2.4 degrees above average. It's hardly good science to put in the current curve atop figure 1 for comparison, but no worse than slapping on the global trend for the same period. It would be intersting to see if some one could smooth the contemporary trend into the GISP2 curve to give a better idea where we're at currently. Failing that, getting his curve onto this site might be nice, at the very least.
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