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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 95751 to 95800:

  1. I want to earn my future, not inherit it
    Kudos to David Roberston for an excellent post. Here are my personal words to live by... "Treat the earth well: it was not given to you by your parents, it was loaned to you by your children. We do not inherit the Earth from our Ancestors, we borrow it from our Children." Ancient Native American Proverb
  2. Meet The Denominator
    #206: "are you denying the existence of peer-reviewed social science journals?" Surely you don't claim E & E is a 'social science' journal? If so, how is it also a climate science journal? Or is this more PT doublespeak? Example (note an actual item from your 'list', not a made up illustration to make a point): Biased Policy Advice from The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (PDF) (Energy & Environment, Volume 18, Numbers 7-8, pp. 929-936, December 2007) Richard S.J. Tol Interested readers (if there are any left) looking for a laugh should read PT's rebuttal to this post, in which he appears to be shooting a Terminator. Real classy choice of images there, shooting those we disagree with.
  3. Meet The Denominator
    Poptech at 232: I'm pretty sure quoting someone who has the same opinion as you on that matter doesn't count. It's recycled hearsay, not actual evidence. As for John Kerry, one man's statement does not make it a 'popular belief'.
  4. Meet The Denominator
    PopTech... "No not among all of them but that is not the point of the list, it is a resource. I do not discriminate among skeptic's theories." So, in reality, you really have several alternative theories of climate change within the broader list? I would suggest it is appropriate to apply each of these smaller theories up against the broader theory of AGW. That would make the results an even smaller fraction than suggested in the main article here.
  5. Crichton's 'Aliens Cause Global Warming'
    #47: "warmed by 0.66°C in 40 years between 950 and 990 " Fascinating how you can so sharply discern a 40 year event on data filtered with a 40 year low pass. The 20 year filter shown earlier in the Esper 2002 paper (their fig 2, which you did not present here) has a distinct break in this so-called 'multidecadal event'. Of course, tree rings are mere proxies and who gives them any credibility? "while no paper is found which would explain this particular event by natural causes" Maybe such papers are found. How about a Krakatoa-class volcanic eruption (the Tianchi eruption, with a volcanic explosivity index (VEI) of 6) immediately before your so-called multi-decadal event? From Zou 2009: The great 10th century Tianchi (or Baitoushan in Korean) eruption represents one of the two largest explosive eruptions (along with the 1815 Tambora eruption) in the past two thousand years. ... The huge eruption ejected about 100 km3 of tephra and resulted in the formation of a 5 km diameter caldera: the Tianchi (Heaven Lake) caldera. If Zou's 100km3 is correct, Tianchi produced an order of magnitude more eruptive debris than Pinatubo and is nearly VEI 7. Yin et al. 2010 pin down the date of this eruption with tree rings: Tree-ring widths were measured and cross-dated. Almost 69 AMS ages were obtained from Yalujiang section. These dates allowed estimation of the time of the eruption with high precision by wiggle-match analysis to 935-942 AD. We can obviously expect a few years of post Pinatubo-style cooling following this event, similar to that in the image shown below. The subsequent warming is thus partly a rebound effect, as seen 1992-93 (~0.5 degrees C in just two years!) So the mere observation of warming rate is not the point here -- it's the driving mechanism behind that rate.
  6. Meet The Denominator
    pbjamm - Entirely correct. Many of the papers on that list are rather infamously invalid upon larger scrutiny, despite repeatedly turning up in skeptic/denial discussions. Incidentally, in regards to the G&T 2009 paper (one I've had particular issues with, as heavily bandied complete bunk) - that was not peer reviewed, but was instead an editor invited review paper. Is peer review a requirement for that list?
  7. Meet The Denominator
    PopTech... "... the word "Alarm" was added to make the title more clear as to the purpose of the list." You know if you keep going I think you can qualify the title even further so that you encompass ALL papers on climate change.
  8. rustneversleeps at 05:25 AM on 15 February 2011
    The Global Carbon Cycle by David Archer—a review
    Nice review, Andy. I will second the book recommendation. I often think that organizing a high-school or first-year university science curriculum around a parallel track studying the carbon cycle (and maybe other biogeochemical cycles) would be an effective teaching tool, because the latter inevitably intersects with biochemistry, paleontology, geology, fossil fuels, marine chemistry, and on and on. In that vein, I also rather liked Tyler Volk's "CO2 Rising" and Eric Roston's "The Carbon Age". Regarding the mystery of the terrestrial biosphere's "missing sink". You might enjoy this recent video of a seminar at Stanford with Stephen Pacala. Specifically the first 3:40 and then from 8:20 to 34:50. He references upcoming work from Oliver Phillips, Stefan Gerber and others, which seems to suggest that much of the missing sink may have been identified: it/has been in the tropical forests, and CO2 fertilization is the key driver. (Interestingly, he makes the point that tropical forests are not limited by nitrogen fixation to the same degree as temperate and boreal forests so that would at least help explain why would see the CO2 fertilization effects in some forests but not others.) If this is true, then, in a way, that would be an interesting and encouraging result. If CO2 fertilization were the driver, it would have the potential to scale up with atmospheric concentrations, whereas if the "missing sink" were due to things like secondary forest regrowth it would just be one-time bumps. But if one then considers the 2005 and 2010 droughts in the Amazon, it is somewhat disconcerting, because this sink could quickly reverse! Of course, these are new - and therefore, preliminary results - which circles back to Archer's point of how much more there is to learn. But it's fascinating watching the carbon cycle mysteries as they are being investigated and resolved.
  9. Meet The Denominator
    Poptech, Your definition of alarm lumps substantiated negative effects with bluster.
  10. Meet The Denominator
    Arguing about what papers should be included on Poptech's list is not really constructive since it is his list and his subjective criteria. Discussing the quality of those papers is entirely fair. Just because they made it past peer review and were published does not mean they held up under further scrutiny. As he stated @215 "All I have to demonstrate is his conclusions are based on erroneous results" for the list to be invalid.
  11. Meet The Denominator
    Potech, "I do not discriminate among skeptic's theories." In other words-- anything goes. Nice. And IIRC, they are not "theories", but hypotheses. Hypotheses which repeatedly get overturned or refuted. I am curious though, please name one such "skeptic theory", with a citation form your list.
  12. Meet The Denominator
    Poptech pbjamm, "What exactly is it you are arguing for here?" "That the percentage of climate change papers in relation to AGW and AGW alarm is undetermined and cannot be determined without evaluating each and every paper individually." I see... Have you never heard of sampling theory? As I discussed here, it's quite simple to apply sampling to the thousands of results from various databases and Google searches. Even a simple sampling indicates well ~2% +/- some amount displaying disagreement with AGW, ~2% disagreeing with consensus estimates of how much warming is caused by AGW; >96% indication of agreement with AGW as a critical involved factor in climate change with some level of consequences to the field of study. Extrapolating from that I estimate <4% papers disagreeing with AGW or denying consequences in the field of climate science, subject of course to +/- sampling error. And I consider that percentage inconsequential.
  13. Meet The Denominator
    Poptech @215, "I have to do no such thing. All I have to demonstrate is his conclusions are based on erroneous results, which I have done." Actually you do. You disagree with 0.1%. Pray tell then...what is the correct fraction? In this sort of endeavour, context is everything. to the man on the street 850 (an inflated number) sounds like a big dent. Well, it is anything but a big dent. And you should very much consult the authors of each paper, b/c by including their paper/s in the list (which is essentially a politically-motivated list) list you may be misrepresenting their position on AGW, and perhaps even misrepresenting their science by lumping it in with a) refuted papers and b) dodgy journals and c) a propaganda list. Again, uncertainty is not equivalent to or suggest a reason to be skeptical of the theory of AGW. you title really does not make any sense, and i suspect that you were trying too hard to cover too many aspects. Didn't Harold Brooks request that you remove one or more of his papers included by you on the list? I still see his name there, more than once in fact. While your merry dance here is intriguing and at times entertaining, I would advise you that it is not helping your credibility one bit. People are trying to help you improve your list. Ignore their advice at your own peril.
  14. Meet The Denominator
    PopTech... Is there a consistent theory amongst the 850 papers you list? Or are you merely listing papers supporting a variety of dissenting opinion?
  15. Dikran Marsupial at 05:09 AM on 15 February 2011
    The Global Carbon Cycle by David Archer—a review
    I am reading this book at the moment, the main problem I have with it is that the boxes (which house various digression) are rather distracting (works well in a magazine with large pages, but no so well in a standard paperback). The content is excellent though, I'd certainly recommend it to anyone wanting to know a bit more about the carbon cycle.
  16. Meet The Denominator
    PopTech... Do we really have to bring up Pielke?
  17. Meet The Denominator
    PopTech... 850 is a large amount relative to what? And, again, the standards you apply to what qualifies for the list is highly questionable. Therefore a more rational number is likely closer to half of that. But again, the number of 850 unto itself has no context. You have to provide context.
  18. Meet The Denominator
    "The context and meaning of the 850 list is that they exist contrary to popular belief and it is a valuable resource for skeptics" Ooh here's an opportunity. Can you please point out an example showing popular belief to be that 'skeptical' papers don't exist? That'd be real handy. PS. It's only a valuable resource for throwing a number out there. Thereafter, a real skeptic will look at the papers and analyse them, finding that a very large number are simply crap. Then the 'skeptic' (the person the list was supposed to help) is left trying to defend scores of sub-standard, contradictory papers and looks foolish. Like I said earlier, if you were trying to make your fellow 'sceptics' more wrong, mission accomplished.
  19. Meet The Denominator
    PopTech... When you have authors of papers who specifically say that the papers they wrote do not say what you suggest they say, what is that?
  20. Meet The Denominator
    Rob Honeycutt @225 Exactly. The papers in the list may or may not have scientific merit. I am not arguing that, nor would I be qualified to make such an evaluation. The point is that without the denominator the quantity is meaningless.
  21. Meet The Denominator
    PopTech... The only thing of value to skeptics is the number you try to throw out. You create a false impression that there is a large body of evidence running contrary to AGW and it's just not true. It's a lie.
  22. Meet The Denominator
    PopTech... "Was the point of the article to falsely imply you perused 200 pages?" There is an error there that I will correct. I perused through about 200 papers. Not pages. There are 100 pages of articles. But that does not alter any of the results.
  23. Meet The Denominator
    Poptech said "That the percentage of climate change papers in relation to AGW and AGW alarm is undetermined and cannot be determined without evaluating each and every paper individually." So, in fact, I was right when back in comment 169 I said: "I know there are more grains of sand on a beach than 850... but I can't count them all. I guess that means by Poptech's logic that his list has as many 'skeptical' papers as there are grains of sand on a beach?" Poptech also asks why Rob is counting papers about climate control in cars... simply because it was intended to be a rough number. One could just as easily ask PT why he includes papers like the one Mr. Marsupial pointed out, that actually gives cause for alarm if AGW continues. In fact, make that a question directly addressed to you Andrew: why's that paper in there? It's behind a paywall but I will assume Dikran has accurately summarised it. Anyway, if one is very generous and assumes that only 1 in 100 of Rob's counts would actually count, then that list is still 10 times longer than Poppy's.
  24. Meet The Denominator
    PopTech said... "All I have to demonstrate is his conclusions are based on erroneous results, which I have done." So we are left with an erroneous numerator and erroneous denominator. That's why I said before, it's really too bad that you don't apply a more rigorous standard to your list because it could actually be very useful. Of course, probably not useful for your preferred conclusions.
  25. Meet The Denominator
    Poptech@209 "That the percentage of climate change papers in relation to AGW and AGW alarm is undetermined and cannot be determined without evaluating each and every paper individually." Excellent. So we agree that the quantity of papers in your list (850) is entirely without context and therefor without meaning. All that remains is the evaluate every paper written about AGW (and its consequences) to arrive at a meaningful ratio. How many of those do you suppose there are? Can't be very many if 850 Skeptical papers makes up a significant percentage of the total.
  26. Meet The Denominator
    PopTech... You ask: How did you peruse 200 pages? and Did you count climate control systems in automobiles? I'm saying in response have you contacted all the authors in your list and asked them if they support the position you are assigning to their papers. Do you not see what is right in front of you? We're just reducing the fraction to a lower common denominator.
  27. Meet The Denominator
    PopTech... You obviously continue to miss the point of the article. In the article I clearly state that I'm giving you (however dubious) the benefit of the doubt. All I'm doing is applying a very cursorily researched denominator. If you want to drill down into the denominator you have to apply equally rigorous scrutiny to the numerator. We're just engaging in a reduction of the fraction. Believe me, if we carry this exercise out you're not going to fair any better.
  28. Meet The Denominator
    PopTech... Did you remove articles because they were published in a journal that is nominally (at best) considered peer-reviewed? (E&E)
  29. Meet The Denominator
    The onus on curator of the list, being a honorable fellow who is interested in presenting the science properly, to specify what portion of the scientific literature on the subject of climate change the papers on his little list (which is padded as I and other shave shown) makes up. It is likely to be more than 0.2%, or even 0.5% or even 1%. Rob here has made an initial effort. Poptech can not plead ignorance. Now he is welcome to improve upon the number shown here, and so long as the results of this search are independently verifiable and his methodology sound, i'm sure Rob will be happy to amend the 0.1% number. The ball is now in Poptech's court-- not to nitpick at the 0.1%, but to undertake their own analysis and arrive at his own number. and given that he claims to be happy to correct things, he can start be removing all those papers on the list which have been refuted by subsequent research. he can start with G&T09, followed by McLean et al. 2009, L&C09 etc etc....he can also remove papers which contradict each other. I can;t believe we are helping poptech...if he implements these changes alone, the list will have much more credibility. But first of all he has to unambiguously decide what he wishes to demonstrate, in terms accepted by the science, and then show those papers which directly speak to to that point.
  30. Meet The Denominator
    PopTech said... "Rob, why are you counting results about climate control systems in automobiles?" Give me a break.
  31. Meet The Denominator
    PopTech said... "Rob, how did you peruse 200 pages?" Are you avoiding questions again? Can't take the heat?
  32. Guardian article: Australia's recent extreme weather isn't so extreme anymore
    Ken Lambert: Although I am an English teacher and American literature professor by training, I will comment on the "12m" flood datum. You write: "In the Brisbane flood 2011, the hydrologist who oversaw the planning of Wivenhoe dam was quoted in the 'Australian' thus: 'When John Oxley discovered Brisbane 180 years ago, the local Aboriginal people were very agitated about flooding and they showed him high water marks that would have been 12m'." To begin with, your dates are very unclear, and the claim put forward about Oxley's "discovery" of Brisbane is a sloppy misuse of the English language. My first factual correction: 2011 less 180 yields 1831, a date that is too late for the establishment of the English settlement at North Quay, which took place in 1825 after the penal colony at Redcliffe, dating to 1824, was abandoned. In other words, I must conclude the unnamed hydrologist you say the _Australian_ was quoting in its story about the 2011 flooding actually made this statement in 2004. You should have made this clear. Next I will take on the "would have been 12m" figure itself. To begin with, as you present it, this is a number with a very hazy provenance, and hardly one I would bruit about in a triumphalist fashion. Note that the unnamed hydrologist uses the words "would have been" to introduce the number, a verbal hedge that suggests the possibility that either Oxley or the hydrologist was skeptical of the claim. With that in mind, before anyone can comment on the validity of the claim, the very first thing that would need to be done is to look into Oxley's writings,extract the relevant data, and evaluate it for its actual value. Thus, your apparent belief that you have scored a great point by citing this putative record of a 12 meter flood is not exactly founded on sound scientific methodology.
  33. Meet The Denominator
    #199: "stated on the list that all the papers are science papers only that they are peer-reviewed." More obfuscation and hiding behind semantics. Your own definition of 'peer-reviewed' begins with scientific or scholarly research. Papers about policy don't fit; especially since you dispute the science, there is nothing to talk about in policy. This bickering should really be done on PT's site; its just noise here. Or does PT not take comments as freely as SkS?
  34. Meet The Denominator
    Poptech, What exactly is it you are arguing for here? Are you arguing that a large percentage of Climate Change papers are alarmist? Skeptical of AGW? Skeptical of the dangers? All we currently have is your 850 number that you believe support your position. But, even after reading this entire thread, I am not sure what that is. The point of the original article is still valid. Without the total number of papers published on the subject your 850 is entirely without context.
  35. Meet The Denominator
    I've never seen a comment from PopTech, here or anywhere else, that I'd describe as anything more than trolling. Given the fact that he's basically incapable of admitting error, and is pretty much his own worst enemy, why give him so much patient attention?
  36. Dikran Marsupial at 03:54 AM on 15 February 2011
    Crichton's 'Aliens Cause Global Warming'
    BP@47 wrote "Fine piece of Argumentum ad Ignorantiam, that. However, Marcus has explicitly stated it was unusual as it's "the fastest rate in at *least* the last 10,000 years"." Sorry, that really is very funny, nice attempt to distract attention from the fact that you had used a regional trend to try and refute a claim about global trends. As to Argumentum as Ignorantiam, that would be true if I had said that the AGW hypothesis rests solely on the fact that we can't explain the current warming without AGW, but I didn't write that. Instead I wrote that there was a known mechanism with good support from experiments, observation and theory. As it happens Marcus was quite possibly wrong on that point, but that doesn't make your reply any better. BTW, it isn't all that surprising that sub-decadal trends are dominated by ocean temperature changes; that is why discussion of trends generally includes dicussion of complicating factors, such as ENSO.
  37. Meet The Denominator
    There are another 159 articles in Nature that contain the exact phrase "global warming" and don't contain the phrase "climate change." You see where I'm going with this? There are nearly as many papers published in one year in one highly reputable journal as you've been able to collect (using your absurd standards) in several years time. The Denominator simply crushes you into nothingness.
  38. Berényi Péter at 03:50 AM on 15 February 2011
    Crichton's 'Aliens Cause Global Warming'
    #46 Albatross at 03:25 AM on 15 February, 2011 In addition, you seem to be assuming that the current rate of warming is only going to last 40 years, it is not, and you also do not seem to be allowing for the fact that the rate will not increase in coming decades. No, I do not assume such a thing. As far as I know we do not have instrumentation to measure future temperatures yet, therefore I do assume they are unknown. That's all. On the other hand you seem to assume a lot about coming decades, based on what?
  39. Philippe Chantreau at 03:47 AM on 15 February 2011
    Meet The Denominator
    Muon @ 180 and Dikran @ 185. I had already noted these problem with PT's list when it contained 700 papers, a little while ago. Many papers without science content that are related to policy or social aspects. Many papers that a superficial look would suggest as undermining some aspect of AGW (the A or the W most of the time), but that, on closer reading, can introduce even more cause for concern. Many publications that are obscure at best, and of course, the heavy reliance on that travesty of a journal that is E&E. As PT admitted himself, he can't read them all, so some are bound to show pretty much the opposite of what he would like, as you found, Dikran. I'm glad I didn't spend too much time digging in the list, because it soon struck me that what I did spend had been a total waste. I avoid doing that nowadays.
  40. Meet The Denominator
    In just 2010 - 2011 there have been 398 articles published in Nature that contain the exact phrase "climate change."
  41. Monckton Myth #11: Carbon Pricing Costs vs. Benefits
    John Brookes - no question, these sorts of economic analyses are very difficult, which is why many don't even attempt to quantify the benefits from avoiding climate change. But I think the key is that despite these difficulties, economic analyses constistently show both that the costs of carbon pricing are minimal, and that the benefits outweigh the costs by a significant margin. How much of a margin is a difficult question to answer because of the issues you raise and many others, but I think we can say with good confidence that with carbon pricing, benefits > costs.
  42. Meet The Denominator
    189. As I pointed out, use by year. Is it that hard?
  43. Meet The Denominator
    190 Poptech Does your list include those often cited papers by Christopher Monckton? You know, the one's that he says support his anit-AGW claims but the authors of the papers say they don't.
  44. Meet The Denominator
    PopTech said... "Rob, how is this possible if only 1000 results are listed?" Come on, are you really so uncreative that you can't think of a way? Break it down by years, by journals, by authors. There are plenty of ways do parse out the data in chunks that are smaller than 1000 papers.
  45. Berényi Péter at 03:41 AM on 15 February 2011
    Crichton's 'Aliens Cause Global Warming'
    #45 Dikran Marsupial at 00:57 AM on 15 February, 2011 It is only unusual in that it cannot be explained by natural mechanisms, given our current understanding of climate physics. Fine piece of Argumentum ad Ignorantiam, that. However, Marcus has explicitly stated it was unusual as it's "the fastest rate in at *least* the last 10,000 years". If it's not that unusual (as it is not), you should show peer reviewed papers demonstrating the natural causes behind each multidecadal warming event other than the current one in the first place. As soon as it is done while no paper is found which would explain this particular event by natural causes, it still does not prove anything beyond the fact our understanding is not perfect. But we already knew that. However, there plenty of are papers that identify natural causes behind the recent warming, and that does prove something. Consider e.g. this one: Earth and Environmental Science, Climate Dynamics Volume 32, Numbers 2-3, 333-342 DOI: 10.1007/s00382-008-0448-9 Oceanic influences on recent continental warming Gilbert P. Compo & Prashant D. Sardeshmukh It says land warming is almost completely explained by warming of ocean surfaces, no direct GHG influence is needed. The paper says nothing about causes of SST change, but it must be internal redistribution of heat in oceans, as we do know heat content of the upper 700 m of oceans is stationary during the last 8 years (since installation of the ARGO network). If warming is caused by SST indeed, there is no recent warming whatsoever, as SST has no trend either. It may well be the case there's no event to be explained at all, exceptional or otherwise.
  46. Meet The Denominator
    PopTech... Here's a start on verification just to give you a taste. How many papers have been published in Nature that contain the exact phrase "climate change?" 3120. Yes that's more than you can actually pull up at a time. So you'd have to bread it down into yearly segments. But that's just one reputable journal out of probably 10,000 or more peer reviewed journals. You can see where this is going. We slice and dice all you want but the results are likely to come out pretty close to the same.
  47. Dikran Marsupial at 03:40 AM on 15 February 2011
    Meet The Denominator
    Poptech@189 While google only return the first 1000 results on-line, that doesn't mean it would not be possible to get the full list off-line by writing to Google. However, your one-line reply highlights the point Rob was making, which is that you don't apply the same skepticism to your own list, which is why you evaded answering the substantive point Rob made. Still, it is your choice...
  48. Crichton's 'Aliens Cause Global Warming'
    BP @44, I agree with Dikran, s/he makes some excellent points. In addition, you seem to be assuming that the current rate of warming is only going to last 40 years, it is not, and you also do not seem to be allowing for the fact that the rate will not increase in coming decades.
  49. Meet The Denominator
    PopTech said... "Rob, is it possible to verify your number of 954,000 using Google Scholar?" Of course it's possible. It would be a massive task. But again you fail to apply any rigor to your list so I would say we're on equal footing here, bub.
  50. Meet The Denominator
    PopTech.... The whole point of the exercise is that it's more of a cartoon response to your cartoon claims. You come in here ranting and raving and knocking over the furniture about my methods and how nothing can be verified but you categorically and emphatically refuse to apply even the slightest skepticism to your own list. Look, no one claims that there are not papers that challenge AGW. Of course there are! There must be for science to operate correctly. But you've gone so far overboard trying to build and defend your list that you've rendered it utterly worthless. It's sad because it honestly could be a great resource if you applied even just a little bit of scientific rigor to it. But you seem emotionally incapable of such a project. I guess the problem here is that, if one were to do a real study the results would not support what you would like to find. In that you are clearly not a skeptic. You are a climate change denier.

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