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Meet The Denominator
Poptech "...but your approach is one guaranteed to get a bad reception." "Yet this exact comment is only ever stated by those who already disagree with me. I never delusional about getting a good reception here regardless." It's been my experience that, given a respectful attitude, I am welcomed back to various discussions even though the other participants know that I will likely hold differing opinions. And that's because I back up my arguments with reasons, with evidence, and actually take others comments seriously. You do not. -
Trueofvoice at 16:00 PM on 15 February 2011PMEL Carbon Program: a new resource
"muoncounter is looking only at estimates of anthropogenic CO2 - that means that the total (anthopogenic + nonanthropogenic) CO2 could be going up or down - you can't tell from his graph". Non-anthropogenic CO2 doesn't just appear in the environment, it has to have a source. Natual carbon sources and sinks are in virtually perfect balance, that's why we've had thousands of years of stable climate. The only additional CO2 being added to the mix is coming from us. -
Phila at 15:38 PM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
I disagree. If Poptech has a point to make beyond this aggressive, witless, totally unsubstantiated expression of ideological stubbornness, it eludes me. This is easily the most excruciating thread I've seen on SkS...the equivalent of trying to reason with a kindergartener whose response to every criticism is nuh uh. -
guinganbresil at 15:26 PM on 15 February 2011PMEL Carbon Program: a new resource
I did a little more reading... muoncounter (above) shows a shocking graph show "Oceanic CO2". It gives the impression that rising CO2 is impacting the ocean in general. Well PMEL has some data also:
It seems to show some interesting features. First, it shows that the DIC is acually lower near the surface compared to the deeper waters - the opposite of muoncounter's graph. Why? muoncounter is looking only at estimates of anthropogenic CO2 - that means that the total (anthopogenic + nonanthropogenic) CO2 could be going up or down - you can't tell from his graph.
The PMEL data shows 1993 on the top, then 2003, then the difference. We can see that there was an increase in DIC in some areas from 1993-2003. Does that mean that the increasing atmospheric CO2 impacted the oceans...?
Perhaps. A quick look at the data will show that the surface temperature was a couple of degrees higher in 1993 than in 2003 over the latitude range 45N-55N. This qualitatively matches the region of largest increase. Could this explain the change in DIC in the PMEL data rather than atmospheric CO2 increases?
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Marcus at 14:51 PM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
The fact remains, PT, that despite how you try & sell it, policy or legal documents (based almost entirely on *opinion*) do not actually strengthen the skeptic position-*unless* they're backed up by *hard evidence*. Yet you consistently sell your list as though it *does* strengthen the skeptic position, simply by virtue of whether the person voicing the opinion *agrees* with the skeptic view (& even that doesn't seem to be a prerequisite-judging from your misrepresentation of Pielke). It certainly doesn't help you credibility when you infer that these kinds of papers somehow strengthen the skeptic position, when they *clearly* don't. That kind of padding out might play well with your fans, but it doesn't play well with those who are genuinely skeptical of global warming skepticism/denial. -
Marcus at 14:44 PM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
"So I am not allowed to voice disagreement with you? If I do it should be censored?" Wow, now whose sounding paranoid? Its just being rightly pointed out to you that, if you're going to repetitively deny or disagree with someone on some point, then you're either going to have to start presenting *evidence* to back you, or people will simply stop listening. If this is how strongly you misinterpret what people say, then I doubt very much that Ian *ever* said anything insulting or libelous to you. -
Meet The Denominator
Poptech - "This is not possible with results over 1000." Then filter it down. Go by year - you can get to 2003 before exceeding 1000. Filter on fewer categories: selecting "Physics, Astronomy, and Planetary Science." as the sole category and you get <1000 results in 2009. And even if you exceed 1000 by a hundred or so - sampling works. I cannot consider your complaints regarding that as a measure as reasonable - more of avoidance. -
Meet The Denominator
"This is not true I have not libeled anyone here let alone done anything worse." I guess you're not counting repeated argumentum ad hominem statements claiming idiocy on the part of whoever objects to what you've said? The oft repeated "You don't know how to Google", among others? PopTech, I don't know where you learned rhetoric or debate, if you have had any training - but your approach is one guaranteed to get a bad reception. I don't agree with everyone's opinions - and in fact strongly disagree with many, and with peoples interpretations. But I've found it important to respect folks reasons for holding those opinions. Those reasons go straight to a persons worldview - and belittling that is a direct insult, which leads straight to the end of the discussion. Crying "Jerk!!!" gets you much the same reception as crying "Wolf!!!". You will be ignored and dismissed. -
Andy Skuce at 13:55 PM on 15 February 2011The Global Carbon Cycle by David Archer—a review
Marvin Gardens@8 I assume that you mean actions to avert climate change, since I just said that our options to directly prevent major carbon cycle feedbacks are limited. I'm no policy wonk, and this is off topic, but here goes anyway: I would start with an escalating revenue-neutral carbon tax, see here. But I don't think that's sufficient, just a good start. I believe that there will also have to be state subsidies to improve electricity grids, as well as to support alternative energy sources such as nuclear power and mitigation strategies such as carbon capture and storage, controversial and problematic though both of those approaches are. I think that we should start negotiating international protocols on the possible use of geo-engineering technologies should the very worst outcomes start to unfold. To be sure, all those actions are politically very difficult to implement and their effectiveness is uncertain. Somebody once said that lost causes are the only ones worth fighting for. Perhaps we should continue discussion of this on another thread; maybe our diligent moderators could suggest a suitable one.Moderator Response: [DB] I would try this one: http://www.skepticalscience.com/monckton-myth-11-carbon-pricing-costs-vs-benefits.html -
pbjamm at 13:55 PM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
BP @297 Funny, but not very helpful. I am interested in how to compile a list of papers that support the science of AGW. These could be on a huge number of topics and may not even have been intended as AGW research. I suppose the logical place to start would be with papers known to be supportive of AGW theory and compile a list of their references. Other thoughts? -
Marcus at 13:54 PM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
"This is not true I have not libeled anyone here let alone done anything worse." Actually, you've consistently accused everyone here of rampant dishonesty-without even having the decency to provide a modicum of *proof* to back your claim-yet you get all huffy when others question the validity of your list-even citing specific *examples* to back their position. Makes you a hypocrite in my books. As to the release of personal information on line-it doesn't matter what you said or didn't say-the mere act alone proves that you're not above using intimidation to get your way. That you would have us believe that you don't think one of your fanatical, denialist mates wouldn't ever use that info to intimidate Ian simply stretches credulity to its absolute limit. -
Marcus at 13:47 PM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
"No that is how you are attempting to portray me after I had shown Rob's denominator to be meaningless since it is based on erroneous results." Nope, that is exactly how you appear when you *admit* that you posted someone's contact details online without their permission. That is exactly the behaviour I expect of a thug whose argument is going well, & simply wants to silence his critics via intimidation. "disagree that their are undisputed numbers on the amount of any warming in the last 30 years and I disagree that their are undisputed numbers on the amount of any warming that can be attributed to AGW." Disagree all you like, but unless you can back it up with scientific *fact*, then you're really just whistling Dixie. "I find comparisons to centuries old civilizations with the modern world's adaptive abilities to be laughable at best." Laugh all you want but its worth noting that (a) these were the most advanced civilizations of their day, (b) they were subjected to the impacts of far slower climate change (on an order of +0.1 degrees per *century*) & (c) modern society (particularly the business community) has already shown a great reluctance to pay the albeit moderate costs for adaptation so far-& have even refused to take even the modest precaution of reducing CO2 emissions just in case-so the idea that you believe they'll pay even higher costs in the future-until it is too late that is-is the only thing laughable around here. Oh, except that useless list of yours. -
Rob Honeycutt at 13:47 PM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
Poptech.. "I disagree that these numbers are undisputed or "well studied" in terms of quality." You have to literally be completely oblivious of the research to believe this. Your capacity of reject absolutely everything that even comes close to disagreeing with your desired conclusion is nothing short of astounding. -
Meet The Denominator
PopTech - Yes, the Google Scholar search does bias towards more heavily cited papers (I love their search methods, and really really wish I had invested heavily in their IPO). You need to look at papers near both ends of the returned search to minimize this factor. Given that citation count is a good measure of how useful that paper has been in the community, though, and hence a measure of scientific value, is that a bad thing? After all, junk papers don't get cited. -
muoncounter at 13:30 PM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
#301: "The Failure of the Popular Vision of Global Warming" Here's how this 1992 paper begins: Virtually all of the scientists directly involved in research on climatic change believe that the earth will undergo warming as a result of anthropogenerated emissions that absorb infrared radiation or enhance the "greenhouse effect". Have you actually read all of the papers on your so-called list? Many of the links go to paywalls; some don't even have an abstract (which is indicative of a very high standard of publishing indeed). #304: "I have not misstated what any scientists are claiming." Ah, so you do claim your the papers in your list are scientific. That means you must throw out the policy garbage; you can't play it both ways. Do not pretend that 'policy' is a social science; as broad as that class is, it does have a definition. Just because a reference goes to a law journal (such as the 20 year old in #301) does not make the paper a scholarly legal study, especially since the authors aren't lawyers. Or do you claim your own definition of this field as well? #308, 309: "I disagree" Now you're just spamming. Unsubstantiated 'I disagree' statements are worthless and should probably be deleted. If that's all you got, then you got nothing. #310: "Google Scholar includes erroneous results" Unless and until you've gone through all search results and can demonstrate these errors, stop making such claims. This noise really has to stop. -
Trueofvoice at 13:18 PM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
As a layman who has spent the last two years trying to develop an understanding of climate science, after reading 310 individual posts in the thread I am more convinced than ever that quality science is overwhelmingly supportive of serious potential consequences to Anthropogenic Global Warming. Although Poptech's arguments are absurd on their face, I find his passive-aggressive style alienating and bizarre. That alone would tend to push a reasonable person away. If Poptech represents skepticism, I'll stick with mainstream science. -
Andy Skuce at 13:17 PM on 15 February 2011Monckton Myth #11: Carbon Pricing Costs vs. Benefits
Here in British Columbia we currently pay a carbon tax of $20/tonne CO2 equivalent. This will escalate to $30/tonne in 2012. Oddly, the tax was introduced in 2008 by a right-of-centre political party (confusingly known as the BC Liberals). The tax is revenue-neutral, meaning that most taxpayers pay lower income taxes than elsewhere in Canada, including in oil-rich Alberta. The economy has not ground to a halt here; in fact the province has weathered the recession relatively well. I would inviteDViscount Monckton to come and see for himself; but really I would prefer him to stay away. One unexpected consequence of a revenue-neutral carbon tax is that is hard to repeal, since abandoning it would entail raising income taxes. Hardly a populist move. Martin Weitzman of Harvard University argues that most cost-benefit analyses don't properly factor in the low possibility of the disastrous outcomes that lurk in the fat tails of climate forecasts. It's worth noting that most probability distributions related to climate are skewed to the high (bad) side and while truly bad outcomes (let's say higher than 6 degrees Celsius by the end of the century) are improbable, they are often given chances of happening of about 3%. With appreciable possibilities like this of truly dire outcomes, it may make little sense to sweat the economics about whether action is needed or not. Perhaps if we had 30 planets it might be interesting to run experiments to see which course of action yielded the highest return on investment. But we don't, of course, even though people like Monckton do seem to inhabit an alternative reality. -
Marvin Gardens at 13:14 PM on 15 February 2011The Global Carbon Cycle by David Archer—a review
Andy S @ 7, What actions are feasible and effective? Not broad strokes, but please be more specific. Thanks -
Daniel Bailey at 12:49 PM on 15 February 2011I want to earn my future, not inherit it
Nice job, David. It's always a good thing when those of the next generation are willing to stand up & be counted:"All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing."
Edmund Burke I'm old enough to be your & Yocta's dad (I'm 49); I will not live long enough to see the worst of the CC in the pipeline today. If I do, then we're all screwed. Anyway, may more of today's youth go and do likewise. The Yooper -
muoncounter at 12:35 PM on 15 February 2011Crichton's 'Aliens Cause Global Warming'
#58: "while for the last 14 years it is 0.06°C/decade. Of course you can also pick cherries." Interesting juxtaposition. We're supposed to make a significant conclusion from a 14 year trend now? "Pinatubo erupted on June 15, 1991 and it took some time for the cooling to take effect" That's odd. Even Spencer shows it was done within 3 years.
"oceans alone determine land temperature"
Interesting contradiction, there. Compo's (Gilbert's his first name) models (and who believes those?) show that warming oceans warm land:
the recent oceanic warming has caused the continents to warm through a different set of mechanisms than usually identified with the global impacts of SST changes. It has increased the humidity of the atmosphere, altered the atmospheric vertical motion and associated cloud fields, and perturbed the longwave and shortwave radiative fluxes at the continental surface.
That makes the case for strong positive water vapor feedback (which I believe you and others are on record as doubting). But as you say, "thermal IR radiation penetrates less than 1 mm into the sea". And of course, you've railed numerous times against the lack of evidence that oceans are warming. So how exactly is this ocean warming that Compo requires to warm adjacent land occurring?
And since there's ample evidence of land warming faster than oceans, how do these model results fit the real world?
Note that there's an existing thread, Why ocean heat can't drive climate change.
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John Brookes at 12:29 PM on 15 February 2011I want to earn my future, not inherit it
I'm 53, and can only say that the more young people get interested in our future, the better. Like most posters here, I'll be dead in 2050 (or bloody close to it!). Its our job to try and do good until we go. Its our job to grow old in body, but not in our thinking. Good luck David. -
JMurphy at 12:27 PM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
Marcus wrote : "Yeah, maybe so, but its so out-of-date that it as good as utterly useless." Not just out-of-date but described as a "Conference Proceeding with Prescreened Review". Hardly peer-reviewed but because it is contained in a peer-reviewed journal, to certain individuals that becomes a 'peer-reviewed paper against AGW Alarm' ! You couldn't make it up, normally, especially when you see him attempting to justify exposing someone else's personal details (that they didn't want exposed) in a public forum. In fact, I would go so far as to call that cowardly, especially as the person doing such a thing seems so keen on keeping the identity of himself and his website secret. -
Philippe Chantreau at 12:25 PM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
PT: "There is nothing outrageous or remotely illegal about using Google search results, filtering and compiling them and then posting them as contact information." It may not be illegal. However, it consists of treating information about someone, packaging it in a new form and then publishing it in that new form. All without the person's consent. My contact info is probably in a variety of places on the web. I had to give it for a number of internet activities. Although I was probably notified that other parties may use it (especially for commercial purposes), I do not recall that it included my info being "compiled, filtered and then published" with the intent of allowing anybody in the public to contact me, whatever the reason. When you are doing so, you essentially create a new set of information about an individual and then publish that set. The info may have existed before, but not under that form. For myself, I would think twice before undertaking that kind of despicable data mining followed by publication. I'm not entirely certain it is legal. I am very sure that it is weak and cowardly, however. The kind of intention that transpires from outing someone's info on the web is perfectly clear. It means that you wish some sort of action would have been taken against that person but you didn't want to do it youself. Instead you created conditions that made it possible for someone else to carry on actions if they were so enclined. And you're proud of it. Way to go PT. Ian Forrester has contributed to this site on many occasions and always did so in perfectly reasonable fashion. If he was really behaving the way you describe (which is your characterization, I'm sure there is another side to that story), there were other things you could have done. But this is what you did. It reflects on you better than anything else you've said or done. -
Albatross at 12:09 PM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
Regarding "cyberstalking"-- from Wikipedia: "Cyberstalking is the use of the Internet or other electronic means to stalk or harass an individual, a group of individuals, or an organization. It may include false accusations, monitoring, making threats, identity theft, damage to data or equipment, the solicitation of minors for sex, or gathering information in order to harass. The definition of "harassment" must meet the criterion that a reasonable person, in possession of the same information, would regard it as sufficient to cause another reasonable person distress." Gathering Ian's personal information and then posting it on a public forum did cause him a great deal of distress. -
Marcus at 11:49 AM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
"This paper is listed under the Socio-Economic section and the journal is peer-reviewed" Yeah, maybe so, but its so out-of-date that it as good as utterly useless. Still, given that you've already proven that you wouldn't know quality research if it came up & slapped you, then its pretty obvious why you'd have missed this obvious point. -
Marcus at 11:46 AM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
"Ian was a very nasty individual who kept insulting and making libelous statements about me. After I provided his contact information his attitude changed very quickly." Wow, Poptech, you really come across as a thin-skinned *thug*. Your definition of "insulting" & "libelous" are both pretty weak-especially when you've been guilty of far, far worse on this blog alone. Even if you did have a genuine case for feeling insulted/libeled, though, the action of posting people's contact details (& thereby exposing that person to violent retribution from your more fanatical devotees) exposes you as nothing more than someone more interested in silencing your critics than getting to the facts-which is pretty typical of the more extreme elements of the Denialist Cult. -
Andy Skuce at 11:46 AM on 15 February 2011The Global Carbon Cycle by David Archer—a review
MattJ@5 That's a good point. It's easy to become fatalistic about the response of the carbon cycle to global warming. After all, we can't refrigerate the permafrost and we don't have a control knob to regulate rainfall patterns in the tropics. We can, however, do some things like stopping deforestation and draining wetlands (see here). Most of all, we can, of course, reduce the chances and the severity of future carbon cycle feedbacks by limiting our CO2 emissions now. It should be remembered that David Archer's final paragraph is a description of what is not what should be. He wrote a science book. But the uncertainty that is so thoroughly described within it shouldn't provide comfort for anybody. As The Economist wrote about a year ago: Action on climate is justified, not because the science is certain, but precisely because it is not. -
Daniel Bailey at 11:41 AM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
Re: Poptech"This is a libelous claim as I have never followed anyone around on the Internet to harass them. Ian was a very nasty individual who kept insulting and making libelous statements about me. After I provided his contact information his attitude changed very quickly."
Oookay, then. Does this mean you're now going tocyberstalk"correct" Albatross? Or Rob? Myself? Wow... The Yooper -
Meet The Denominator
Poptech: "PopTech... Okay, I'll even concede that another 10% of those papers are editorial or other than specific peer reviewed research. Heck, make it 50%! But there are a large number of other journals left to count." "Those are arbitrary numbers and the only way to verify them is to check each and every result." That is really not correct - sampling (as I've noted several times on this thread already) will provide a ratio of AGW versus non-AGW papers within whatever level of certainty you have the patience for. That can be directly applied to the journals surveyed and numbers found. Exhaustive testing (reading every single paper written) is not necessary - calling for it is just hiding from the issue. My simple survey indicates that >96% of papers are accepting of AGW as present, significant, and relevant to the real-world results being discussed. If you disagree, do your own survey and let us know. In an established field such as this, I would consider <4% to be just fringe opinions, and not relevant to the science as a whole. Especially when so many of them have proven to be really quite wrong. -
Berényi Péter at 11:27 AM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
#291 pbjamm at 10:58 AM on 15 February, 2011 I am curious how a list of papers supporting AGW could be compiled. Explicit endorsement of "anthropogenic global warming" would be too narrow a criteria as the authors explicit endorsement would not be required if their data were relevant. Also, they may use terms other than "anthropogenic global warming" so a simple search for that in any DB of papers would be insufficient. Where to start? Look for phrases like "could", "would", "robust", "up to", "unequivocal", "very likely", "consistent with", "future scenario", "projection", "big picture" and "multiple lines of evidence". -
Rob Honeycutt at 11:26 AM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
Poptech... "I already have by demonstrating that your denominator is meaningless since it is based on erroneous results." No. You've demonstrated that you are willing to apply standards to others that you are not willing to apply to yourself. If we take the full body of scientific research into climate change and compare that to the good quality peer-reviewed papers that challenge the human contribution to modern climate change... We are going to end up about where we are now. We can go through the full exercise if you like. But if you are going to apply stringent standards on my side, you have to accept stringent standards on your side. -
Rob Honeycutt at 11:20 AM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
Poptech... Ah! Now I think we're getting somewhere! You know, I don't think we're that different in our thinking. 1) The amount of warming attributable to AGW. That's extremely well studied. There are a lot of uncertainties. We have a clear understanding of the low end (1.5C) and the high end (4.5C). We don't know yet where it's actually going to fall. 2) You are exactly right. We are a highly adaptable species. Even given an extinction level event humans would most likely be one of the surviving species and would adapt. The problem here is what is in between. We're actively making a big roll of the climate dice, that's a given. We don't have the ability to control where the dice land but we do have the capacity to influence where the dice does not land. If we keep pushing the climate the way we are, based on the best research that human's have to offer, if climate sensitivity is high, we are going to create a very ugly scene for humanity over the next few hundred years. But we'll probably survive in much reduced numbers. That same scene is likely even at lower climate sensitivities if we don't adjust how we use energy now. The people who are alarmed about this are alarmed because we don't want those future generations to go through what we are potentially going to put them through. This is not coming from whacky extremist scientists. This information is coming from virtually every area of science and from every scientific organization on the planet. This is as solid as science gets. -
Marcus at 11:19 AM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
"That largely depends on two factors, the amount of the warming that is attributable to AGW and the ability of us to adapt to it. I currently believe our adaptive capacity to very great and the amount of warming attributable to AGW to be inconclusive. So I do not support AGW Alarm." Wow, could any comment be more full of fail? Firstly, the warming attributable to AGW is only "inconclusive" in the alternate universe inhabited by the Denialist Cult. Here in the real world, its abundantly clear that the planet has warmed +0.5 degrees in only 30 years-in *spite* of downward trends in Solar Irradiance & the PDO, & that this warming is unlikely to slow down as we pump more CO2 into the atmosphere. Secondly, though we might have the technical ability to adapt to at least some elements of global warming, history suggests that there is a great deal of resistance to change-if not an outright *denial* of the need to change. Several of the most advanced civilizations of their day (The Mayans, The Anasazi, the Khmer Empire & the Vikings in Greenland) all collapsed due to the unwillingness of the ruling classes to adapt their lifestyles to meet the demands of a much slower rate of climate change. The current attitudes of the Denialist Cult prove that our society hasn't changed much in the intervening 1,000 year period-which is why I'm very concerned! -
Utahn at 11:12 AM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
Poptech, I wanted to make sure I understood something about your thinking on the current consensus. Do you believe a scientific consensus exists regarding AGW alarm? If not, why not? -
Dikran Marsupial at 11:08 AM on 15 February 2011CO2 has a short residence time
drrocket@17 wrote: "it needed to show that the bulge in CO2 at MLO, now global, was caused by man." If you want to argue that man was not the cause of the observed rise in atmospheric CO2, you need to be able to explain why the annual rise in atmospheric CO2 has always been less than anthropogenic emissions for the last fifty years. Do the math, if nature is a net source of CO2, then the observed rise will be greater than anthropogenic emissions, as the annual rise is equal to total emissions minus total uptake. However, this is observed not to be the case, which rules out the possibility that the observed rise is natural as it proves the natural envrionment is a net carbon sink rather than a source. -
pbjamm at 10:58 AM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
There is no shame in not knowing. Pretending to know is another matter. I am curious how a list of papers supporting AGW could be compiled. Explicit endorsement of "anthropogenic global warming" would be too narrow a criteria as the authors explicit endorsement would not be required if their data were relevant. Also, they may use terms other than "anthropogenic global warming" so a simple search for that in any DB of papers would be insufficient. Where to start? -
Rob Honeycutt at 10:51 AM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
Poptech 288... I believe the appropriate list would be a full listing of peer reviewed papers that study climate change. Once you start qualifying the search parameters you diminish the meaning of the work. There are going to be a lot of papers that don't give an opinion. They'll merely be reporting findings of research. Others will ascribe a cause. Without a doubt the number of papers on climate change issues is likely 100,000 or better. I mean, we're talking about 150 years of research on all kinds of aspects of this issue. You have 850 papers whose definition as skeptical relies only on your personal rationalization. It's just not a compelling number by any stretch. -
drrocket at 10:46 AM on 15 February 2011CO2 has a short residence time
Skeptical Science's condensation doesn't match the original argument it attributes to Solomon. But then, Solomon's argument is too sketchy to be coherent with the IPCC AGW model. IPCC did not interpret its assignment to prove AGW. It converted its UN charter to do scientific research on the subject by first assuming that AGW exists, the AGW conjecture, then setting about to gather supporting evidence. Since the late '50s, the unparalleled CO2 record reduced from MLO measurements showed a bulge in CO2. That bulge was coincident with an increasing global temperature reduced from global measurements. What IPCC needed to establish was that the MLO record was global, not regional. For that, it relied on the long-lived conjecture, attributed to Henning Rodhe who in 1973 co-authored a paper on the subject with Bert Bolin, the first IPCC chairman from 1988 to 1997. Rodhe would become a Contributing Author on the TAR. As IPCC said, >> Because these gases are long lived, they become well mixed throughout the atmosphere much faster than they are removed and their global concentrations can be accurately estimated from data at a few locations. AR4, Technical Summary, pp. 23-24. By the way, Skeptical Science says correctly that by definition turnover time applies to the reservoir size and the rate of removal. Then it says incorrectly that the lifetime of an individual particle depends on the "flow into (or out of)" a reservoir. Not so! Replenishment is a separate phenomenon from residence time. With the well-mixed/long-lived assumption under its belt, IPCC could proceed to calibrate all CO2 measurement stations against MLO. See "identification" of other stations with the "seasonally adjusted CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa", Keeling, CD, et al., "Exchanges of Atmospheric CO2 and 13CO2 with the Terrestrial Biosphere and Oceans from 1978 to 2000; I. Global Aspects", SIO Reference No. 01-06, June 2001, ¶2.2, p. 6. Lest IPCC be accused of using correlation to establish cause and effect, it needed to show that the bulge in CO2 at MLO, now global, was caused by man. To do this, it sought to establish two human fingerprints. One was that the growth in atmospheric CO2 paralleled the decline in atmospheric O2. The other was that the isotopic fraction of CO2 measured at MLO declined in proportion to the emissions of the isotopically lighter fossil fuel emissions. IPCC accomplished both by deceptive graphics, absent any supporting computation. See re AR4, Figure 2.3, SGW, Part III, A, rocketscientistsjournal.com. As insurance, IPCC showed how CO2 emissions accumulate in the atmosphere, notwithstanding the solubility pump. The uptake by the ocean, IPCC claimed, was paced by the sequestration processes of the biological pumps. This was because IPCC adopted the model that the surface layer was in thermodynamic equilibrium, thus the stoichiometric equations with their attendant equilibrium coefficients applied. This assumption controls the ratio of molecular CO2 that can exist in the surface layer. It has the bonus effect that added atmospheric CO2 must acidify the ocean. This is, of course, scientific claptrap. The surface layer is in neither thermal equilibrium, nor mechanical equilibrium, nor chemical equilibrium, the three components of thermodynamic equilibrium. IPCC reaches back to Revelle & Suess's failed attempt in 1957 to show how the ocean buffered against CO2 uptake. A reasonable alternative is that thermodynamic equilibrium is not present, that Henry's Law applies, and consequently the on-going buffering is the surface layer holding excess CO2, not the atmosphere. By the way, when IPCC tried to measure the Revelle Buffer in the open ocean, it discovered Henry's Law! When questions arose about the evidence in the second draft review, IPCC deleted it "in order not to confuse the reader." See "On Why CO2 Is Known Not To Have Accumulated in the Atmosphere, … ", rocketscientistsjournal.com. And what happens to the natural flux of CO2? According to IPCC modeling, it proceeds at a rate about 30 times faster than anthropogenic CO2, balanced and unfazed by surface layer chemistry. In the AGW model, natural and manmade CO2 obey different laws. Normal scientific skepticism applied to the AGW model is well-rewarded. It exposes much more than error. -
Bibliovermis at 10:41 AM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
So you admit you are arguing on the basis of belief. -
Albatross at 10:38 AM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
Pop, "I have no idea how I am supposed to prove I never received something. You tell me." Well, I would have to see you inbox no wouldn't I. I'm done here. Feel free to talk to the walls. -
Riduna at 10:37 AM on 15 February 2011Monckton Myth #11: Carbon Pricing Costs vs. Benefits
Mozart @ 33 Ah! But now we have CO2 to keep us warm. Should we not be more concerned about the prospect of the sun emerging from its present minima? -
Albatross at 10:26 AM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
Poptech @283, "ROFLMAO! If both of you have come to such a ridiculous conclusion then the picture definitely needs to stay just for the pure hilarity of comments like this." That juvenile comment by you speaks volumes about you. Would you have been ROFLMAO had someone used the information provided by you to find Forrester's home and then threatened him and his family, or worse? This appears to be a game for you, it is not. Grow up. -
Rob Honeycutt at 10:14 AM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
pbjamm... I have to add, though, even ignoring the deficiencies the list is actually more endorsing of AGW in that such an amazingly small number of studies actually challenge that humans are causing current warming. -
Rob Honeycutt at 10:02 AM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
pbjamm... I'm actually quite flattered that he took the time to make a post about it. Honestly, each time he opens his mouth he digs his own hole a little bit deeper. He's kind of the gift that keeps on giving. -
Berényi Péter at 10:02 AM on 15 February 2011Crichton's 'Aliens Cause Global Warming'
#56 muoncounter at 08:59 AM on 15 February, 2011 see the thread on recent NH warming: +0.3 degrees C/decade False. If you take the 20N - 82.5N region from RSS_Monthly_MSU_AMSU_Channel_TLT_Anomalies_Land_and_Ocean_v03_3.txt, that is, lower tropospheric temperature anomalies for NH Extratropics, the trend for the full 32 years of satellite record is 0.23°C/decade while for the last 14 years it is 0.06°C/decade. Of course you can also pick cherries. For the last 19 years (since February 1992), it is 0.3°C/decade indeed. Mt. Pinatubo erupted on June 15, 1991 and it took some time for the cooling to take effect. It all depends on what you mean by "recent", you see. But according to Gilbert 2009 oceans alone determine land temperature, so it makes sense to consider temperatures only there. If there is a significant CO2 effect, it has to raise sea surface temperature first. However, it is not easy, as thermal IR radiation penetrates less than 1 mm into the sea, which in turn is several million times deeper than that. -
Marcus at 09:52 AM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
I think we've all proven that-in spite of his numerous, though repetitive, protests-PopTech's list is a complete & total joke-whose sole aim is to feed the ego of his fellow Denialists. In just a few pages, bloggers have successfully highlighted more than 20 papers (outside of the E&E papers) that clearly don't come up to scratch-for one reason or another-yet he arrogantly refuses to concede this point or amend his original claim-all whilst attacking others for allegedly doing what he actually *is* doing-typical denialist hypocrisy. -
BillS at 09:52 AM on 15 February 2011I want to earn my future, not inherit it
I'm 58, and have a few thousand "children" of my own in the guise of my former students. David, it's your job to be positive, as it's the only viable foundation for the creativity required to save this planet for our children to come. It's also your job to want to preserve that which you currently value in our culture, including retirement. Despair and curmudgeonly acceptance of human myopia will contribute nothing. Yep, we're all in store for harder times, but let's give it a go, eh? Looking at the past few days events in Egypt makes me think perhaps our blue planet isn't destined to become a spherical Easter island after all. Perhaps intelligent intent can prevail, after all. -
pbjamm at 09:48 AM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
I dont think there is anything wrong with the image Poptech used on his website. It is pretty clearly a response to the Terminator imagery used in the original article and not a threat directed at Rob Honeycutt. There are plenty of real deficiencies in the list and that should be the focus. -
Marcus at 09:45 AM on 15 February 2011Meet The Denominator
Yes methinks that, if you remove all the dodgy E&E papers(like that travesty by Beck), all the papers of more than 20 years of age, all the papers which have been multiply debunked (like McLean's desperate bid to "Hide the Incline") & all the papers where the scientists *aren't* claiming what PopTech says they're claiming, then his list would look incredibly thin-even if you're kind enough to leave in policy-rather than Science based-papers. -
yocta at 09:31 AM on 15 February 2011I want to earn my future, not inherit it
If this article is typical of the thinking of twenty-somethings on the topic, no wonder their voice has so little impact. If that statement is typical of a baby boomer then no wonder our voice falls on deaf ears! As a 26 year old I look at my baby boomer retired parents galavanting on travels around the world and I also wonder if my retirement could ever be like this. Gen-Y's are sometimes referred to as "Gen-why bother" since the future does look a mess but I find it refreshing that there is another gen-Y out there who is trying to make some sort of change. Good post David. FYI there are some great new programs starting in the community that are aimed at such day to day transformation in people's lifestyles (in Australia at least) such as the CSIRO's Energymark.
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