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michael sweet at 05:28 AM on 30 January 2011Latest GRACE data: record ice loss in 2010
Fydijkstra: The reference you linked only measures surface melting. The 310 GT number you mention is the surface mass balance. Since they only estimated surface melt you would expect the total loss to be much greater. Ice melt from warm ocean water melting the glaciers is expected to melt more ice than surface melt in the long run. The GRACE data measures melt from all sources. Your reference supports the GRACE data claims of record melt. Your claim that these are dueling estimates is incorrect. Why does your second graph not have the data from 1993 and 1994 on it like the graph above it? It appears that the graph is incomplete. -
Chemist1 at 05:27 AM on 30 January 2011Follow-Up Case Study in Skepticism
I think both thea FEU-US and Lindzen paper illustrate what can often happen in science, especially when dealing with unknowns and large uncertainty. The same issues occur in AGW publications in peer review too. Oh and a little information you may not know: you can ignore the thermal inertia of oceans in either calculation because a large amount of heat dissipates due to weather,thus not raising temps. -
Julian Flood at 05:06 AM on 30 January 2011It's not us
I find your knock-down attributions of warming to anthropogenic causes less than convincing. Perhaps you could clarify a couple of things? 1. More fossil fuel carbon in the air. Presumably you mean 'more light isotope carbon in the air'. How is this light carbon attributed to human emissions? It is trivially easy to think of other causes of a 12C signal -- disruptions of the biosphere will alter the flux of isotopes and change the absolute values, a minute warming will enable methanophages to devour clathrates which have been building up for millennia. Etc -- if I remember correctly I found five possible changes which could give this signal - six if you count the burning of fossil fuels. So, without post hoc ergo propter hoc reasoning, how do we know that the signal is anthropogenic? 2. Fossil fuel carbon in coral. I have the same objection to this one: there is a light carbon signal. How do you assign it to fossil fuel burning? 3. Less oxygen in the air. Well, the methanophages would cause that, as would a major disruption of C-fixing, oxygen-producing plankton. There has been a fall in plankton population of 40% in the last seventy years. Does it not seem more reasonable that oxygen use by civilisation is dwarfed by the huge fluxes found in nature? Having seen a flow diagram of CO2 with an uncertainty of +- 70 Gt in the value of export to deep ocean reservoirs, my take on the whole affair is that we are like a little boy peeing into a reservoir during a cloudburst and worrying about whether we will cause the dam to burst. It's warming. CO2 levels are rising. Attribution please. Your assertions above do not reach the standard of proof. Julian FloodModerator Response: [Daniel Bailey] Here's a recent study with data you can download & play with, so you can see for yourself. -
Byron Smith at 04:58 AM on 30 January 2011Follow-Up Case Study in Skepticism
Ron - that is not particularly surprising, since it was not the focus of Dana's excellent article, though you are right that its message is actually what has been lost in the controversy over a mistake in it. Funny how a single mistake can lead deniers to throw out a whole report (admittedly in this case a pretty bad mistake - as all sides agree), while a single grain of truth hidden amongst a pack of lies, half-truths and misleading implications makes any denier a courageous maverick standing against the crowd. -
Alexandre at 04:54 AM on 30 January 2011Follow-Up Case Study in Skepticism
Ron #1 Yes. That shows that the denier tactic is actually successful, shifting the "debate" to responding to crocks instead of mitigation policy or science. -
Ron Crouch at 04:30 AM on 30 January 2011Follow-Up Case Study in Skepticism
Amazing. Out of 310 responses there was not one that address's the underlying message of the FEU-US paper. -
John Hartz at 04:08 AM on 30 January 2011Animated powerpoint of the Indicators of Warming
@John Cook Here's another way to graphically portray "Indicators of a Warming World" in a PowerPoint presentation. First slide: Narrative definition of the basic components of the "climate system," i.e. atmosphere, cryosphere, lithosphere, etc. [Slide header: "What do you scientists mean when they say, "Climate System"?] Subsequent slides: Graphic representations (a la your slide posted above) of the GW Indicators for each component of the slide system. One of my ongoing concerns about how climate change is discussed on public forums, including SkS, is that many people simply do not understand that the "climate system" is more than just the atmosphere and that annual mean global surface temperature is just one of a myriad of ways to measure and track climate change. That is one reason why I have suggested the above slide show. Another is that your graphic simply contains way too much information on a single slide. It works great in the print media where people can stare at it for as long as they need to. -
pdt at 04:06 AM on 30 January 2011Sea level rise is exaggerated
Originally posted in the front-page article about Greenland ice loss. The moderator determined it was off-topic and that this would be the better place for the discussion. How is the short-term (last decade) accelerating land-ice loss (in Greenland and elsewhere) reconciled with sea level rise not accelerating? Does thermal expansion/contraction dominate over this time scale, is there too much error in the measurements, or is this truly something not clearly understood because of insufficient data like the energy budget? I guess the question is more broad in the sense that I wonder if the temperature, land-ice, and sea-level rates of change are fully reconcilable with available data.Moderator Response: [Daniel Bailey] Thank you for setting a positive example! -
John Hartz at 03:49 AM on 30 January 2011Animated powerpoint of the Indicators of Warming
@John Cook I hate to spoil the party, but... 1. The location of "Permafrost retreating poleward" leaves a lot to be desired. 2. Where is "Surface Water Heat Content"? 3. Where is "Land Heat Content"? 4. Where are "Climate Refugees migrating"? -
Daniel Bailey at 03:10 AM on 30 January 2011Tree-rings diverge from temperature after 1960
@ Philip Shehan (13) Welcome to Skeptical Science! There is an immense amount of reference material discussed here and it can be a bit difficult at first to find an answer to your questions. That's why we recommend that Newcomers, Start Here and then learn The Big Picture. I also recommend watching this video on why CO2 is the biggest climate control knob in Earth's history. Further general questions can usually be be answered by first using the Search function in the upper left of every Skeptical Science page to see if there is already a post on it (odds are, there is). Or you can search by Taxonomy. Forcings, except for CO2, have been flat for nearly 40 years. Temperatures continue to climb, and that rate of climb is still increasing (as are CO2 levels). Hope that helps, The Yooper -
Zeroth at 02:55 AM on 30 January 2011Latest GRACE data: record ice loss in 2010
Thanks Daniel. Whats the known reference point for the GRACE graph? Or does it change over time? How is it determined?Moderator Response: [Daniel Bailey] GRACE data begin in 2002, when the satellite was orbited and completed calibration. Nitty-gritty details are at the GRACE site linked earlier. The Original Post (OP) above talks about other sources of data on Greenland ice mass loss. The anomalies in the first graph show the change in mass loss over time (the rate of loss is increasing; eyeball Mk2 suggests a quadratic fit). -
Daniel Bailey at 02:49 AM on 30 January 2011Latest GRACE data: record ice loss in 2010
Re: Zeroth (8) Info on GRACE is here. Ideally, the range of ice mass measurements is shown to increase the accuracy of the next measurement: the anomaly. Climate scientists use anomalies instead of absolutes because they are interested in the change from a known reference point. This allows any signal in the data to emerge (time series of absolute measurements such as temperatures, or in this case: ice mass loss, tend to be very noisy with much variation). I also would be interested in seeing the deviation anomaly from just 2002 as a reference point. Not that it would change the graph any. The Yooper -
Daniel Bailey at 02:26 AM on 30 January 2011Ten temperature records in a single graphic
@ Ron @ 107 For the uninitiate, this is a Yooper scooper (average: person, boots, house, winter snow depth). We even have the smaller kid's size. But I use this 10.5 HP, 28" cut snowblower. @ muoncounter Exactly! The Yooper -
muoncounter at 02:19 AM on 30 January 2011Ten temperature records in a single graphic
#108: "Who on earth thought that last question was well-designed?" The survey as a whole reeks of bias; even the ordering of the questions is leading. In a survey that asks about current climate change, how can there be no presentation of current data? Are the students just supposed to guess or have they already been shown the answer? As a fellow science teacher, I'm embarrassed to see this. Here is a link to the US high school AP Environmental Science curriculum outline. Note in particular section VII. "Global change", which is supposed to represent 10-15% of the course. Among the content: Greenhouse gases and the greenhouse effect; impacts and consequences of global warming; reducing climate change; relevant laws and treaties. One has to wonder how that class went. Although it would be interesting to see how a class survey taken before an objective presentation of the data compared to one taken afterwards. -
mlyle at 02:19 AM on 30 January 2011Latest GRACE data: record ice loss in 2010
Sea level change is related not only to loss of land ice, but also thermal warming in the ocean and large scale ocean current structure. There is also a term associated with rebound of continents. Trying to compare Greenland ice loss directly to sea level is a mistake. Here's a site where you can look at the sea level data: http://sealevel.colorado.edu/Moderator Response: [Daniel Bailey] Thanks for the link. All further comments on sea level are off-topic here and should go on a more relevant thread (such as this one by reader PDT). Thanks! -
Zeroth at 02:15 AM on 30 January 2011Latest GRACE data: record ice loss in 2010
@#7, your second graph seems off. Thanks for linking to the data, can someone else run a line of best fit? That line doesn't seem right, and has more under than above(which violates the basic heuristic of line of best fit). The graph looks damning, but should be examined before being accepted. -
pdt at 02:10 AM on 30 January 2011Latest GRACE data: record ice loss in 2010
How is the short-term (last decade) accelerating land-ice loss (in Greenland and elsewhere) reconciled with sea level rise not accelerating? Does thermal expansion/contraction dominate over this time scale, is there too much error in the measurements, or is this truly something not clearly understood because of insufficient data like the energy budget? -
RickG at 01:53 AM on 30 January 2011Latest GRACE data: record ice loss in 2010
7 fydijkstra Why do I get the feeling that you have been in the cherry orchard? -
muoncounter at 01:48 AM on 30 January 2011Latest GRACE data: record ice loss in 2010
#7: "However, it's not alarming, because..." Astute analysis, fydijkstra! Except for the observation in the post that "the rate of ice loss continues to increase, more than doubling since 2002." As if that wasn't clear enough, the graph in Fig 2. has a distinctly negative slope, visually describing the increasing rate of loss. Doubling in 8 years represents a 9% annual rate of change. So your calculation that we can go on for 14000 years misses by several thousand years. But the damage is done long before Greenland is completely ice-free. Amsterdam's airport is how far above sea level? Or is the 'elevation' given here a negative number? -
soo doh nim at 01:32 AM on 30 January 2011Rebuttal to 'Scientist's Can't Even Predict The Weather Right'
For non-technical types, I find that this explanation seems to work: I can predict that Alex Rodriquez will bat close to .325 next season. Now, say it's July 22nd, and the A's are coming to town. Try predicting the first pitch (type & location) A-Rod will face in today's game. Your prediction becomes more accurate as the actual situation (number of outs, men on base, etc) approaches. That's weather. The prediction for the season average is climate. Nine times out of ten I get the Aha! reaction. -
Zeroth at 01:32 AM on 30 January 2011Latest GRACE data: record ice loss in 2010
Okay, I'm sure theres a reason for showing the Ice Mass Anomaly, but it does look deceptive. Can you explain how this is calculated, and why its shown, instead of the actual ice mass numbers? Disclaimer: I'm not a doubter. However, I want to have something strong to show people, and this doesn't fit yet, simply because showing the ice mass anomaly rather than actual ice mass data looks deceptive. -
Ken Lambert at 01:10 AM on 30 January 2011A Flanner in the Works for Snow and Ice calculations
MarkR #25 So Delta F should equate to my F.CO2GHG + F.otherGHG + F.solar (which are all the supposed independent of temperature) Y x DeltaT should equate to the climate and temperature responses: F.WVIA feedback - F.radiative feedbackSB - F.cloud albedo - F.direct albedo. ?? With your Delta Q equal to the difference between the two above terms. Is that right? -
fydijkstra at 00:46 AM on 30 January 2011Latest GRACE data: record ice loss in 2010
Two hundred gigatons mass loss from Greenland every year. It is quite a lot! We could cover the whole city of city of Amsterdam with 1000 meters of water with that amount of ice. Last week there was another paper, claiming that Greenland lost 310 Gigatons between October 2009 and September 2010. It seems to be a race to offer the highest estimates. However, it's not alarming, because: (1) 200 Gigaton is only 0.007% of the total Greenland mass, so we can go on for 14,000 years before the whole sheet disappears; (2) the sea level rise is not accelerating. This is what can be deduced from satellite measurements.
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David Horton at 22:30 PM on 29 January 2011Latest GRACE data: record ice loss in 2010
Yes, when I see this graph I wonder why do it as an anomaly from average 2002-10. Why not simply present it as an anomaly from 2002? The graph as it is seems misleading, as you point out, suggesting ice gain pre 2007. I can't remember ever seeing a graph present data in quite this way before. Something a bit odd about the other data too. The current ice loss, from the graph, is not "over 200" but seems to be over 300. And the zero figure seems to be in 1975 - 35 years ago, not "2 decades". But prior to that, "some time before" "two decades", the figures are not also zero but again are over 100 in 1965-70. Do we know the reason for that? I would have expected the figures in those years to be zero. Are the measurements less accurate for those early years? Was there a difference in accumulation rates for some reason, or loss rates for some other reason? -
John Chapman at 22:15 PM on 29 January 2011Latest GRACE data: record ice loss in 2010
Thank you SS for this. John -
les at 21:50 PM on 29 January 2011Latest GRACE data: record ice loss in 2010
regarding comments on figure 1... reminds me of Garrison Keillor's intro... "Lake Wobegon where ... all the children are above average" -
Chemware at 21:34 PM on 29 January 2011Animated powerpoint of the Indicators of Warming
jyh @ 2: No, precipitation is rising globally, regardless of ENSO. See the interview with Trenbarth at Climate Progress: Exclusive interview: NCAR’s Trenberth on the link between global warming and extreme deluges This is part of an intensification of the hydrological cycle - so locally both droughts and floods will become more intense. Albatross @ 13: Ever done imagemaps ? Lots of fun :) -
BillyJoe at 21:13 PM on 29 January 2011Latest GRACE data: record ice loss in 2010
Perhaps we should invite Monckton to comment. Maybe he will question how changes in gravity as measured by satellites could possibly give an accurate estimation of changes in the Greenland ice mass. Actually I find it amazing myself but, then, I never ceased to be amazed by what can be achieved by scientists. -
jsam at 20:37 PM on 29 January 2011Naomi Oreskes' study on consensus was flawed
Poor Benny Peiser, having to eat so much crow, as this article highlights his analysis of data was 97% wrong http://www.logicalscience.com/skeptics/BPeiser.html. Naomi Oreskes is an outstanding scholar. -
Alexandre at 20:29 PM on 29 January 2011Latest GRACE data: record ice loss in 2010
Thanks John. Unfortunately, no surprises again... Any news on Antarctic GRACE data? -
adelady at 19:02 PM on 29 January 2011Ten temperature records in a single graphic
I did the survey too. Who on earth thought that last question was well-designed? -
michael sweet at 18:51 PM on 29 January 2011Latest GRACE data: record ice loss in 2010
John, Thank you for updating the data. Is it possible to compare the formula for the quadratic fit and see if the slope increased, decreased or stayed the same over the past year? Perhaps if the fit equation were shown that could be determined. It has been unusually hot over most of Greenland this winter. How will that affect the ice melt this year? -
Stephen Leahy at 16:55 PM on 29 January 20112010: A Year of Record Warmth and Weird Weather
opps here's the link -
Stephen Leahy at 16:54 PM on 29 January 20112010: A Year of Record Warmth and Weird Weather
#29 I asked Trenberth that question you posed. His response: “Without global warming these extremes are unlikely to have occurred." He went on to confirm that: "Changes in extreme weather events are the main way climate change is manifested.” -
Philip Shehan at 16:49 PM on 29 January 2011Tree-rings diverge from temperature after 1960
With regard to tree ring growth diverging from warming. I understand from other sections here that solar activity and cosmic radiation have also declined while temperatures have increased over the past few decades. Is there a possible causal effect due to this correlation? -
Ron Crouch at 15:48 PM on 29 January 20112010: A Year of Record Warmth and Weird Weather
It's more like the new abnormal normal. Abnormal in the sense that events are not only shifting in frequency of occurrence as the distribution shifts, they are also more intense. -
muoncounter at 15:30 PM on 29 January 20112010: A Year of Record Warmth and Weird Weather
#23: "seems to be making rather exaggerated claims" Hardly. The same cogent assessment of the changing probabilities of weird weather events was made here . It's worth quoting over and over until the message sinks in: Was global warming the cause of the 2010 heat wave in Moscow, the 2003 heat wave in Europe, the all-time record high temperatures reached in many Asian nations in 2010, the incredible Pakistan flood in 2010? The standard scientist answer is "you cannot blame a specific weather/climate event on global warming." That answer, to the public, translates as "no". However, if the question were posed as "would these events have occurred if atmospheric carbon dioxide had remained at its pre-industrial level of 280 ppm?", an appropriate answer in that case is "almost certainly not." That answer, to the public, translates as "yes", i.e., humans probably bear a responsibility for the extreme event. ... Although either answer can be defended as "correct", we suggest that leading with the standard caveat "you cannot blame..." is misleading and allows a misinterpretation about the danger of increasing extreme events. Extreme events, by definition, are on the tail of the probability distribution. Events in the tail of the distribution are the ones that change most in frequency of occurrence as the distribution shifts due to global warming. Weird ... its the new normal. -
Ron Crouch at 14:58 PM on 29 January 2011Ten temperature records in a single graphic
I don't mean to be nosy Daniel, but do you need a "yooper scooper" where you live? I'll bet if you do, that you get less use out of it every year. Eh! -
muoncounter at 14:55 PM on 29 January 2011Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming
#29: "the real insult is that the National Hurricane Center ... still does not have the facts for 2010" Only can be considered an insult if true. As Albatross notes in #32, here are the facts, as of 29 Nov 2010: According to NOAA the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season, which ends tomorrow, was one of the busiest on record. In contrast, the eastern North Pacific season had the fewest storms on record since the satellite era began. In the Atlantic Basin a total of 19 named storms formed – tied with 1887 and 1995 for third highest on record. Of those, 12 became hurricanes – tied with 1969 for second highest on record. Five of those reached major hurricane status of Category 3 or higher. "Sit down please, you have not listened. That one is accumulated intensity of hurricanes making landfall in the US" Believe me, I'm not standing. As you seem to not recognize it, you picked only hurricanes (ignoring tropical storms) and only US landfalls; by comparison to that cherry pittance, the Atlantic basin looms large. "My scatterplot above ... is meaningful indeed. " If, by 'meaning,' you find some hidden significance in a shotgun spread of data points. See #24 for the way you described it. The ACE statistic is a wind speed-time duration metric. By focusing on this alone, you miss what is suggested here. Hurricane Tomas brought heavy rain to earthquake-ravaged Haiti, and several storms, including Alex, battered eastern Mexico and Central America with heavy rain, mudslides and deadly flooding. Alex was cat 2 at landfall (ACE 7.7); Tomas varied from TS to cat 1 (ACE 10.9). By comparsion, Igor was cat 4 (ACE 42.4), all as reported here. These storms are doing more damage because of they are associated with heavy 'predecessor rain events' (PREs), as tropical moisture is pulled along the storm track, as reported by Galarneau et al 2010: PREs are coherent mesoscale regions of heavy rainfall, ... that can occur approximately 1000 km poleward of recurving tropical cyclones (TCs). PREs occur most commonly in August and September, and approximately 36 h prior to the arrival of the main rain shield associated with the TC. ... PREs are high-impact weather events that can often result in significant inland flooding, either from the PRE itself or from the subsequent arrival of the main rain shield associated with the TC that falls onto soils already saturated by the PRE. A more comprehensive and sobering picture of storm effects is given in an unpublished piece by Drews 2007, who presents a breakdown of the ACE index into the components illustrated below.
As I said twice now, perhaps we can agree that this question remains open. It is tedious in the extreme to be overly dogmatic when it is clear that a better metric is needed.
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Daniel Bailey at 14:35 PM on 29 January 2011Ten temperature records in a single graphic
Agreed on the survey - designed to get a predetermined response. Graphs like his are a fav of the "skeptics" as they always end in 1950 - effectively they hide the incline in global temperatures observed over the past 60 years. By design or quirk of happenstance? You be the judge... A form of mind-control, if you will. The YooperModerator Response: [muoncounter] Mind control? Or maybe just the first line here? -
Ron Crouch at 14:28 PM on 29 January 2011Ten temperature records in a single graphic
Taking a look back at a graph that Pirate posted in this thread, and then taking a look at the graph for his survey I noticed that they both cover a 400,000 year span, and it was true, they don't really show that much warming. But then I remembered our good old standard issue Temperature estimates relative to today from over 800,000 years of the EPICA ice cores in Antarctica., and it tells a whole different story. Amazing how things come to life when you put them in the -- proper perspective. -
Ron Crouch at 14:09 PM on 29 January 2011Ten temperature records in a single graphic
I completed Pirate's survey, but I'll bet my result gets excluded. -
archiesteel at 13:40 PM on 29 January 2011Ten temperature records in a single graphic
@pirate: "My purpose of posting the comment about the AP Physics students was not to imply any scientific basis to discredit AGW, but to show that public perception of AGW is very different than what you may think." Sorry, but that stinks of sample bias. You are basically saying that one classroom represents what "public perception of AGW" is. Nearly every poll on the subject shows that a majority of the people accept AGW theory, including in the US. A recent Rasmussen poll said that: "Fifty-eight percent (58%) of voters see global warming as at least a somewhat serious problem, with 33% who see it as a Very Serious problem. Thirty-eight percent (38%) are not concerned about global warming, including 17% who say it is Not At All Serious." Note that Rasmussen is generally perceived to have a slight conservative bias, so I think these numbers are not exaggerated. So, for what it's worth, it seems that public perception of AGW is quite different from what *you* think. -
Rob Painting at 13:17 PM on 29 January 2011Monckton Myth #8: Rising sea levels
CC @ 54 - I'm not saying your point isn't valid, but trying to address every error or diversion simply dilutes the message. Thanks for highlighting this though, it's worthy of its own rebuttal. -
Marcus at 12:30 PM on 29 January 2011Ten temperature records in a single graphic
So, I took a look at the Survey from Pirate, & its the most biased piece of rubbish I've ever seen. How could anyone judge if the planet were warming or cooling over the past 100 years when looking at a graph with a 50,000 year scale? Total nonsense. The last question is also extremely loaded, given that many renewable energy technologies are *very* reliable (you might say *more* reliable-as renewable energy can be better scaled to demand than coal or nuclear power) & have far lower environmental impacts than coal or nuclear power. I think this "survey" reveals a lot about how survey results can be skewed by the bias of the person designing the survey. -
Marcus at 12:24 PM on 29 January 2011Ten temperature records in a single graphic
Pirate, the only reason Fossil Fuels are so cheap is because-from the outset-they've enjoyed enormous financial support from Governments across the world. They still enjoy these subsidies in *spite* of them being mature industries. Next time try couching the question about renewable energy by adding in how much the fossil fuel industry is currently costing tax payers. -
Marcus at 12:21 PM on 29 January 2011Ten temperature records in a single graphic
Good point, JMurphy. The "Skeptic" logic-if it can be called that-is akin to saying that: as forest fires can occur naturally, then no human can ever be responsible for forest fires. That is, of course, a total logical fallacy-whether applied to climate change or possible arson ;). -
Ron Crouch at 10:28 AM on 29 January 2011Ten temperature records in a single graphic
I know I'm off topic. Sorry. The part that gets me the most is when people like James Inhofe make statements to the effect that CO2 is a colourless, odourless, non-toxic gas. That should be a great comfort to any submariner. Just think of the money that could be saved by removing all those CO2 scrubbers from subs. Nothing could be finer than to suffocate in an oxygen rich environment (contaminated with say <4%? CO2). -
Albatross at 10:21 AM on 29 January 2011Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming
BP @31, "My scatterplot above is also for global ACE and as such, it is meaningful indeed." Well, you are entitled to your opinion, no matter how misguided it may be and no matter how unscientific. I can try and hook you up with Christopher Monckton if you like... As I'm sure you know, TCs are primarily a tropical phenomenon except on those occasions when they undergo extra-tropical transition. So your scatterplot might have been more "meaningful" or convincing had you looked at OHC (or SSTs) for the tropics, instead of lower-tropospheric temperatures for the globe (from a group/product with a less than reputable history). -
Albatross at 10:13 AM on 29 January 2011Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming
BP @31, "But the real insult is that the National Hurricane Center of the U.S. of A. still does not have the facts for 2010, although the year is somewhat over." Sigh, read this, issued on 29 November 2010.
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