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co2isnotevil at 08:18 AM on 31 December 2010Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
archiesteel, I've seen good papers get completely gutted because the 'peers' who reviewed it didn't like the conclusions. I prefer interactive review with known individuals, rather than the anonymous review often utilized for climate papers. Anonymous review just doesn't work when the topic is controversial and your position goes against the consensus, but it's OK for more accepted mainstream science. You can bark all you want about the science being settled, but the truth is climate science is the most controversial branch of science around. BTW, I never called it a conspiracy, you did. If you want to use that word, perhaps a inadvertent conspiracy of flawed group think would be more appropriate. I have to believe that scientists pushing the catastrophic point of view must believe what they are saying. The problem is they don't have enough information to know for sure and the reality of the situation is they are just guessing based on a 'gut feeling'. Science isn't about gut feelings, but about logic, data and first principles and all of this is turning decidedly against the gut feelings driving climate alarmists. Relative to what my climate tool does with the ISCCP satellite data. all I'm doing is plotting the NASA data. And as I told you, the errors I pointed out have been acknowledged by Rossow, who is one of the principles of the ISCCP project and wrote much of their SW. BTW, I had to do a lot of reverse engineering of the error before Rossow would even acknowledge the problem, but he finally did admit to the programming error that led to this problem. He response was, 'Well, you can't use ISCCP data for identifying trends'. The reason seems clear since when you fix these issues, no warming trend is observed and if anything, there's been a small cooling trend over the last 10 years. -
PaulPS at 08:13 AM on 31 December 2010The many lines of evidence for global warming in a single graphic
You may want to change the Snow cover to an up/down arrow as based on the linked interview with Professor Mike Lockwood, winter extremes can go either way. http://www.bishop-hill.net/blog/2010/12/30/a-hundred-years-of-freezing.html -
EOttawa at 08:08 AM on 31 December 2010The many lines of evidence for global warming in a single graphic
Hmm. The svg opened in Inkscape correctly, but text problems in chrome and firefox -
EOttawa at 08:01 AM on 31 December 2010The many lines of evidence for global warming in a single graphic
The svg is missing a namespace definition - adding xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" to the svg element solved it for me. -
daisym at 07:56 AM on 31 December 2010The many lines of evidence for global warming in a single graphic
The graph shows an excellent portrayal of effects of warming. History reveals migrations of plants and animals over the ages to result from warming (and cooling) cycles of the planet. In the context of the AGW "debate", it seems that the graph is neutral, that it provides no attribution to causes of the warming... just to the effects of the warming. Even so, the scientific research depicted in the graph has added considerable knowledge of how all living things adapt to changing climates. The graph provides as succinct a summary as one could ever find. -
dhogaza at 07:18 AM on 31 December 2010A Positive Outlook For Clouds
" it looks to me when I apply the equations that 0.75ºC per W/m² actually equates to a climate sensitivity of 2.78ºC per doubling of CO2" 2.78C comes from GISS Model E, I'm sure (i.e. the model that Gavin works on). I know it's < 3C (but well within the error bars that the 3C best estimate from IPCC comes with). -
Albatross at 06:27 AM on 31 December 2010It's cooling
Thanks Archiesteel @97, I'm busy today, so I can't argue with BP. Some points. The planet is warming (accumulating heat) the trend in global SATs and tropospheric temperatures is positive and statistically significant, and the rate of warming is noteworthy. Sad that BP cannot even conceded that simple point without prefacing the statement with a caveat. BP, despite his claims is not calculating EQS, he is calculating TCR, and his estimate of TCR is within the range of TCR calculated by Gregory and Forster. If BP thinks he is onto something regarding EQS being so low (he does not say exactly how low, lots of arm waving), I am sure Journal of Climate would be happy to ship his manuscript off to the reviewers if they think his proposed method has merit. Yes, the OHC data are problematic. My point though was that despite the spikes and troughs, the trend in those 0-2000 m OHC data between 2003 and 2008 is up. I do not see a systematic positive bias in the measurements. Finally, let us for now forget the SAT data and the OHC data. There are still multiple, independent lines of evidence which point to a warming planet (oddly enough a planet which BP claims is 'cooling itself'). -
Albatross at 06:13 AM on 31 December 2010Did Global Warming stop in
1998,1995,2002,2007, 2010?
Archie and Michael, I'm saddened to have to agree with your assessments--detraction, obfuscation, fabricating faux debate. I'll add another, it is sad when the "skeptics" are is such a weak position that they have to argue semantics. For example, claiming that a "warming trend" is different from "the planet is warming" (see BP's posts on CS thread). Also BP opines: "It means the extra heat from there can not go anywhere but to an even colder heat reservoir, which is outer space." Well, the GHGs are proving to be an impediment to the loss LWR from the surface. But in BPs' world it seems that LWR from the surface is simply lost to space, unimpeded. Maybe he did not mean that, but then he should have very carefully stated otherwise. -
BlueRock at 06:04 AM on 31 December 2010The many lines of evidence for global warming in a single graphic
Excellent graphic. Thank you, guys. Just curious: where does the SVG work? I tried Fx4, Chrome11 and Opera11 - none display correctly. P.S. You can trim down the size of PNGs with http://www.pngoptimizer.com/ or http://optipng.sourceforge.net/ -
JMurphy at 05:02 AM on 31 December 2010It's freaking cold!
kdfv, can you post the link to the second map you are referring to ? -
michael sweet at 04:57 AM on 31 December 2010Did Global Warming stop in
1998,1995,2002,2007, 2010?
BP: The discussion is about the temperature anamoly data. Your graph of surface temperatures is a pitiful attempt to distract people from the discussion. Everyone knows that it is cold in the arctic in the winter. You should stay on topic. For your information, until this week it was above 0C in southern Greenland. It is too bad that you have given up on trying to produce analysis of data tht support your position and now just disrupt discussions that others have. -
RickG at 04:37 AM on 31 December 2010The many lines of evidence for global warming in a single graphic
#4 TOP I understood the article to be about effect (what is happening) rather than cause (what made it happen). Nevertheless, I'll go back and re-read it to be absolutely sure. ......Yup! Second reading gives me the same impression. Perhaps you can point out what I'm missing. Cheers! -
TOP at 04:07 AM on 31 December 2010The many lines of evidence for global warming in a single graphic
#14 muoncounter I'm talking about the graphic, not "It's not us". For instance, do you see any mention of those green house gases in the graphic. I only see one. -
muoncounter at 04:01 AM on 31 December 2010The many lines of evidence for global warming in a single graphic
#10: "this graphic could be construed as non-AGW." Also construed as AGW in many places on SkS. Use Search to find 'It's not us', 'The human fingerprint', etc. If you do not believe there is human influence on climate, please explain what causes and then mitigated acid rain and ozone depletion. Then explain why there are urban CO2 domes, a close seasonal correlation between CO2/CO/CH4, soot in the Arctic, etc -- all on a thread like 'It's not us'. -
KeenOn350 at 04:01 AM on 31 December 2010The many lines of evidence for global warming in a single graphic
Sorry, didn't spend enough time on this before posting 1st comment. Agree with psweet - species are "shifting ranges", or "moving" or "being dislocated". Agree with m. sweet - Ocean pH is a pretty serious problem, an aspect of the CO2 problem, and one to which we need to draw more attention. Which makes me wonder about the title: I really don't like the term "global warming". It is too comfy and cuddly feeling. John Holdren has tried to promote "climate disruption", which is a bit better. If you do include ocean pH and other factors, then we are really looking at symptoms of Biosphere Disruption - but maybe that is tending towards OT for the main SS theme... -
TOP at 03:56 AM on 31 December 2010The many lines of evidence for global warming in a single graphic
I didn't say non-warming, just non-AGW. -
Roger D at 03:55 AM on 31 December 2010The many lines of evidence for global warming in a single graphic
Regarding TOP@4.: Isn't the graphic just what the title implies:Indicators of a Warmng World". It doesn't any show evidence specifically related to either AGW or Non-AGW. It seems a good basic graphic summary for the sub-catogory of "skeptic" that agrues against GW. michael sweet suggests adding ocean pH increase to the graphic, but if I understand the climate experts, pH increase is more of an indicator of increased CO2 than of GW in general, which is what the graphic shows... Maybe a companion graphic (yeah,I know, it's much easier to just suggest stuff for someone else to produce)for negative impacts from GW and another for evidence of human causes for GW. Great site - thanks, Roger -
TOP at 03:51 AM on 31 December 2010The many lines of evidence for global warming in a single graphic
@4 Dan Bailey I've posted in other places why this graphic could be construed as non-AGW.Moderator Response: (Daniel Bailey) Thanks, then it should be a simple matter for you to provide a link to support your position on the graphic. -
muoncounter at 03:50 AM on 31 December 2010It's Pacific Decadal Oscillation
#50: "I'll keep referring to the UAH plot... " Perhaps you should also refer to Assessing global surface temperature reconstructions, which demonstrates that all temperature measures are very similar. Figure 8 in that post renders PDO and even Nino/Nina influences on the long term trends a moot point. "I hope we agree that the plot presented in post #39 is misleading." No, we don't agree. -
TOP at 03:49 AM on 31 December 2010The many lines of evidence for global warming in a single graphic
@6 michael sweet Maybe then an arrow should be added next to each arrow with Hansen's prediction to scale with what has happened. -
KeenOn350 at 03:45 AM on 31 December 2010The many lines of evidence for global warming in a single graphic
Nice graphic, John. I want to say thanks for all the work you are doing for our children - the children of the world!! Like Tenney Naumer, however, I do have a bit of a problem with the white vs black arrows. Perhaps all the arrows should be red or orange or amber - some kind of "warning" colour. -
archiesteel at 03:30 AM on 31 December 2010It's Pacific Decadal Oscillation
@thepoodlebites: "Based on the evidence, I don't think that we know for sure either way but pre-cursor indicators suggest that we may be headed into another period of cooling similar to the 60's and 70's." Actually, there is no evidence showing we are about to enter a period of cooling (nor was the 70s a period of cooling either "When I took advanced meteorology classes in 1981 the consensus was that we may be entering into another ice-age." Please provide evidence that global cooling was the scientific consensus in 1981, because AFAIK that's not true. "I visited the Holocaust Museum in Washington, DC. To label a skeptical scientist a denier is insulting." "Denier" is not attached to the Holocaust, "Holocaust denier" is. Someone who deniers the theory of evolution is an "evolution denier," and someone who denies AGW theory is a "climate change denier." Don't wrap yourself in the mantle of indignant victimhood over this, it's kinda disrespectful for the actual Holocaust victims. "Stick to the scientific method, stay objective, don't give in to personal bias, that leads to the dark side." Sticking to the scientific method will lead you to acceptance of AGW theory. It's not a question of bias, but of evidence - believe me, I'd much rather AGW be false! As far as UAH vs. GISS goes, why not use both? In fact, why not use all the data: Hadcrut, GISS, UAH and RSS? They may not all show the same temperature exactly, but they all show the same trend, and that's what counts. -
thepoodlebites at 03:18 AM on 31 December 2010It's Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Moderator #45 and #46 explains my position, comparing the GISS plot in #39 to the UAH plot on Roy Spencer's website, the GISS plot shows an annual mean value for 2005 (0.61 C) that's higher than the 1998 El Nino year. The UAH plot shows an annual anomaly of 0.3 C for 2005, 0.54 C for 1998. The descrepancy may be in the addition of the surface record to the GISS data, which I can not comment about in this thread. I'll keep referring to the UAH plot if that's OK? If there's any significant warming in the future, it will show up in the satellite data, correct? As far as peer-review in climate science, that's probably off-topic too and best left unsaid here. -
Tom Curtis at 02:55 AM on 31 December 2010We're coming out of the Little Ice Age
PaulPS, I am in the process of doing a critique on my new blog: Part 1 Part 2 Part 3 is still to come. -
archiesteel at 02:51 AM on 31 December 2010It's cooling
In any case, the topic of this is "is global warming still happening", and the answer to that is a resounding yes. Discussion of the reliability of an OHC graph are quite off-topic. -
archiesteel at 02:48 AM on 31 December 2010It's cooling
@BP: why does your graph stop in 2005? I'm sorry, but you have yet to make a convincing case against the graph. The fact that results are surprising doesn't mean they are impossible. In fact, considering the limits of the survey (0 to 2000 meters), it is quite possible part of the extra heat was released from below. It seems to me the main reason you are dismissing this graph is that it disagrees with your own (non-peer-reviewed) theories. "I said UAH satellite lower troposphere data showed a (moderate) warming trend. That's not the same as "the planet is warming", is it?" All temperatures show pretty much the same warming trend, and it is not moderate by any reasonable standard. Of course, when your goal is to minimize the risk and stall the debate, everything goes, right? -
psweet at 02:45 AM on 31 December 2010The many lines of evidence for global warming in a single graphic
Just a small quibble -- it makes more sense to talk about species expanding or shifting their ranges towards the poles, or into cooler regions. The term migration properly refers to a regular seasonal movement, that has always been poleward in the spring, for most species. -
archiesteel at 02:44 AM on 31 December 2010Did Global Warming stop in
1998,1995,2002,2007, 2010?
@JMurphy: "Perhaps it is linked to a report I read about recently, which seems to suggest that people of a certain (right-wing) perspective had a "more pronounced amygdala – a primitive part of the brain associated with emotion..." This is off-topic, but the study was more precise in stating the amygdala is mostly responsible for fear (not just emotions in general). One thing's for sure, it certainly seem to affect scientific understanding... -
archiesteel at 02:42 AM on 31 December 2010Did Global Warming stop in
1998,1995,2002,2007, 2010?
@Argus: "I definitely see more purple than red, and more blue than orange." Well, argusbargus, your eyes are decieving you. You're probably comparing light purple with red, but you should rather compare it with orange. Similarly, you should be comparing blue with green. To stay on-topic, there is absolutely no indication that global warming has stopped, or even slowed down. It's still going on, but that won't stop contrarians from repeating the same debunked arguments, it seems. -
archiesteel at 02:38 AM on 31 December 2010Did Global Warming stop in
1998,1995,2002,2007, 2010?
@BP: why pick a single day, Berényi? You know, cherry-picking is a sign of intellectual weakness or dishonesty. Your claim that the extra heat has "nowhere to go but outer space" is also incorrect. The radiated IR from the surface (it radiates IR, even if it is below zero) will still be intercepted by CO2 molecules, which will then re-radiate it. Seriously, you used to at least have the pretense of knowing what you were talking about, but now it's just sad. -
archiesteel at 02:32 AM on 31 December 2010Climate sensitivity is low
@BP: I'm sorry, BP, but you're just throwing numbers around and hiding behind formulas. If you really understood the science, you'd be able to explain it simply. You might also try to explain why your (purposefully confusing) argument does not agree with actual observations. If you want to go and play the savant, why don't you write an actual scientific article and have it peer-reviewed. After all, since you're apparently able to disprove AGW theory is an important scientific discovery. The fact you haven't is a good indication you don't really believe your theory is exact, but are in fact only trying to further obfuscate the debate. -
Berényi Péter at 02:24 AM on 31 December 2010Did Global Warming stop in
1998,1995,2002,2007, 2010?
#66 michael sweet at 01:56 AM on 31 December, 2010 On the graph at #48, notice that there is a lot of red +10C and very little violet -10C. Those "red hot" areas (Greenland, North-Eastern Canada, Chukchi peninsula, Kamchatka) are still well below 0°C (or rather -10°C, which is still "hot" compared to their usual temperature for the season). It means the extra heat from there can not go anywhere but to an even colder heat reservoir, which is outer space. This is how the planet is cooling itself. -
Eric (skeptic) at 02:14 AM on 31 December 2010The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism
Paul Barry, this chart http://i46.tinypic.com/2vja1z5.png shows how El Nino depletes the tropical pacific ocean heat and La Nina recharges it. What is notable is that each strong La Nina recharge seems to provide a "step up" in tropical pacific heat content. Also it is not hard to imagine that as the heat of each El Nino gets spread around the world, the other oceans store some of that heat in the following year or two. That chart came from this page by skeptic Bob Tisdale http://bobtisdale.blogspot.com/2010/02/la-nina-underappreciated-portion-of.html Some of his work has been criticized here before, but that chart is just data. -
michael sweet at 01:56 AM on 31 December 2010Did Global Warming stop in
1998,1995,2002,2007, 2010?
Argus, We will have to wait for the GISS report at the start of January for quantitative data. On the graph at #48, notice that there is a lot of red +10C and very little violet -10C. The red in Greenland corresponds well to the purple in Siberia so the latitude makes little difference. Eyeballing a graph like this has a lot of subjective error, we will see who did better next week when the quantitative data comes out. -
SoundOff at 01:42 AM on 31 December 2010A Positive Outlook For Clouds
I’ve often seen Gavin at RC state that each W/m² equates to about 0.75ºC increase in temperature. I used his number above although it looks to me when I apply the equations that 0.75ºC per W/m² actually equates to a climate sensitivity of 2.78ºC per doubling of CO2 while 0.81ºC per W/m² gives a climate sensitivity of exactly 3ºC. I’m not sure how he arrived at 0.75ºC instead for 3ºC, I just use it. I’ve never seen averages applied in the way Ken Lambert suggests. See The CO2 Problem in 6 Easy Steps at RC. Also see RC comment # 46 by Chris Colose at Some Examples Worked -
michael sweet at 01:36 AM on 31 December 2010A Positive Outlook For Clouds
The simplistic calculations of climate sensitivity discussed here need to consider that the ocean causes a significant lag in the observed temperature increase. Other threads on Skeptical Science describe this lag as 40 years and more. Thus the 0.8C that we have already measured is due to the CO2 released decades ago. The increase from the last 40 or 60 ppm of CO2 has not yet been seen. The skeptics need to think about their simplistic arguments that "it isn't that scary" and consider that we have not seen the full warming yet. The skeptic argument has shifted from "it is not warming" to "the warming is not so bad". The scientific position has not changed. Tell the 20 million people who were flooded out of their homes in Pakistan this year that "it isn't that scary" and see what they say. -
Berényi Péter at 01:33 AM on 31 December 2010It's cooling
#95 Albatross at 10:43 AM on 30 December, 2010 And the 0-2000 m OHC decreased by that about amount in two months in early 2006. Yet, the long-term trend is up my friend. Funny you don't see it's impossible. One needs a 15 W/m2 radiative imbalance at TOA for two months to produce such wriggles. That's more than 6% of ASR (Absorbed Shortwave Radiation). You could say the Earth was at its perihelion in early 2007. But it makes the drop a year before even more suspicious. Either - or. There's simply no heat reservoir in the climate system other than the oceans that could emit or absorb so much heat. The two events, taken together, require imbalances of some 30 W/m2 on such timescales. Can you see anything like that in the ISCCP-FD Net TOA Radiative Fluxes? An OHC history reconstruction showing impossible features is not the best candidate for estimating trends. Also, please make up your mind. Earlier on this thread you correctly stated that the planet is warming and that TCR is about 2 C I said UAH satellite lower troposphere data showed a (moderate) warming trend. That's not the same as "the planet is warming", is it? And I was not talking about TCR (Transient Climate Response), but equilibrium climate sensitivity and said it was at most 2°C, probably considerably less. Other than that, well done, you've quoted me correctly. -
michael sweet at 01:22 AM on 31 December 2010The many lines of evidence for global warming in a single graphic
Terrific graphic. I think your graphics that summarize the AGW arguments so well are great resources. They can be shown to skeptics all at once. That makes it so much harder for the skeptics to focus on one thing, they have to anslwer them all at once. John: is it worth adding pH increase in the ocean? That is not a result of warming, but it is one of the major problems caused by increasing CO2. TOP: how could you possibly use this graphic to sugggest non-AGW? These are all results predicted 20 years ago in James Hansens' testimony in congress. The skeptics said it would never happen. Unsupported trash talk like your comment is so lame. Are you just demonstrating how bankrupt the skeptic argument is? -
Paul Barry at 01:03 AM on 31 December 2010The Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism
Rob @ 53 Thanks for those points. I see that it is complicated. On the one hand warming of ocean decreases its ability to dissolve CO2. On the other hand increasing CO2 in atmosphere increases the ocean's "ability" to store CO2. The question arises then about the relative scale of each of these affects to determine which one over-rides the other - when and where. And I'm still having trouble imagining the acidity problem against this complex background and I still don't know if I feel confident telling people that warming releases CO2 from oceans (overall). Perhaps it's a timing thing. This is probably not the place for explaining all of this stuff. If anyone knows a particular site or source where all of this is well explained or more suited to these kinds of questions, please let me know. -
Mikemcc at 00:51 AM on 31 December 2010The many lines of evidence for global warming in a single graphic
Could also include that stratospheric temperatures are decreasing too -
Ken Lambert at 00:37 AM on 31 December 2010A Positive Outlook For Clouds
Soundoff #19 I have a bit of a problem with this unit degC per W/sq.m, which is used to measure climate sensitivity. To raise the temperature of a mass you input energy measured in Joules. eg. the specific heat of dirt, water etc is expressed in Joules/gram or kJ/kG. A Watt is an instantaneous applied power or energy flux and to get energy applied you have to multiply by time. ie. a Joule is a Watt-sec. Soundoff's use of the IPCC log equation to calc forcing 'relative to 1975' gives the instantaneous forcing increase for today (2010) at 0.894W/sq.m. That only applies today and not 5, 10, 15, 20 years ago when the CO2 conc was somewhere between 330 and 390 ppmv. To get a temperature increase of 0.65 degC, the increased energy applied would be an 'average' forcing in W/sq.m multiplied by 36 years. That average forcing would be roughly half the 0.894W/sq.m increase (the ln function is non-linear so the half is not exact). That would give a 0.65 degC increase based on roughly half the forcing increase which doubles the 'climate sensitivity' to roughly 1.5degC per W/sq.m (or 6degC per doubling)to be consistent with Soundoff's sum. Not amazingly close at all. All the other forcings need be taken into account to determine the net forcing imbalance (with S-B cooling and CO2-WV feedbacks playing a vital role) -
SoundOff at 00:36 AM on 31 December 2010A Positive Outlook For Clouds
#19 – Errata – Last sentence's qualifier should have been: “... given that the other positive and negative forcings more-or-less cancel each other out.” -
thepoodlebites at 00:34 AM on 31 December 2010It's Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Moderator Thank you for the information regarding questionable integrity of the surface temperature records. I hope we agree that the plot presented in post #39 is misleading. Climate is complicated and the PDO is only one piece of the ever-changing puzzle. Maybe the global trend will continue to rise after this pause, maybe it will go down. Based on the evidence, I don't think that we know for sure either way but pre-cursor indicators suggest that we may be headed into another period of cooling similar to the 60's and 70's. When I took advanced meteorology classes in 1981 the consensus was that we may be entering into another ice-age. We learned about "instantaneous glaciation" and the possibility of a near global ice-over within 1,000 years. That was my experience, that was what I was taught. Can you blame me for being skeptical about CO2 induced climate disruption? Yes, I'm skeptical but I'm not a denier. I visited the Holocaust Museum in Washington, DC. To label a skeptical scientist a denier is insulting. Stick to the scientific method, stay objective, don't give in to personal bias, that leads to the dark side.Moderator Response: [Daniel Bailey] Please furnish us with your rationale for your subjective assessment of the graph in post 39. Use the search function in the upper left corner of this page to find posts discussing planetary cooling and imminent ice ages memes. Lastly, there exists a considerable difference between being skeptical (which necessarily must include being skeptical of contrarian claims) and being a "skeptic". Approaches which seek to use the most possible data to develop an explanation that best explains as much as possible which then survive peer-review are the ones that develop over time into a consensus. Please avoid assigning other bias' like 'dark side' to things. Politics and agendas cause one to quickly run afoul of the Comments Policy. Thanks for your understanding. -
TOP at 00:13 AM on 31 December 2010The many lines of evidence for global warming in a single graphic
Makes a good case for non-AGW too.Response: The 'Indicators of Warming World' graphic is to establish that warming is happening. It doesn't speak at all to the cause of the warming - that is coming in an upcoming post (although you can get a good idea of what it will say in the Scientific Guide to Global Warming Skepticism which features an update of this old blog post).
Sadly, there are still many people who still deny global warming is happening. All it takes is a snow storm somewhere for the knee-jerk reaction "aha, global warming has stopped". But if you're able to take a step back, peruse all the evidence for a warming world and acknowledge that yes, the planet is building up heat and warming, then all credit to you. -
Tenney Naumer at 23:28 PM on 30 December 2010The many lines of evidence for global warming in a single graphic
If you put all the arrows in white, then the reader can go from one to another without being distracted, and can "comfortably" make their own judgment about each one, without any one of them standing out more than the others. Someone who is new to this might find it easier to assimilate. -
Tenney Naumer at 23:26 PM on 30 December 2010The many lines of evidence for global warming in a single graphic
Just a thought. It would say more to me if the springtime coming earlier had an arrow pointing to the left. And I am not sure what to think about the black arrows. I know all the down arrows are in black, but that really doesn't say a lot to me, because whichever direction you point these arrows, they are all bad, and white vs. black is generally assumed to be good vs. bad. -
JMurphy at 23:20 PM on 30 December 2010Did Global Warming stop in
1998,1995,2002,2007, 2010?
It would appear that the so-called skeptics have a difficulty with perception, which is why they always highlight cold temperatures and are seemingly blissfully unaware of the far more regular record warm temperatures. I don't know how this can be combatted except by constant reiteration of the facts so that at least those who are reading these threads can see the unusual nature of so-called skepticism. In this vein, someone posted a link previously to Jeff Masters at Wunderground and that led me to another of his posts, which mentions two papers (Houston and Changnon (2009) and Changnon et al. (2006)), showing no trend in heavy snowfalls in one study but another showing heavier snowfalls likely to occur in a warmer world. Now, to a so-called skeptic this probably doesn't compute. How can the world warm and yet snowfall be heavier ? It would be the same to a Creationist who cannot understand how the perfection of an eye can have been developed from random mutations and 'trial and error'. To everyone else, reading all the facts makes such things clearer. It's also worth trying to think beyond what a so-called skeptic would call his (let's face it, the vast majority of them are male) world - what he can see out of his window and what he has experienced personally. Doing this will allow one to look at the heavy precipitation as snow in the Northern Hemisphere and the heavy precipitation as rain in the Southern Hemisphere. Are they linked in some way ? Is this more evidence of the increase in precipitation predicted as the world warms ? It also allows you to understand why it can be very cold around your own locale, while the world as a whole is warmer than average. As I say, it's very difficult to persuade any so-called skeptic who is set in his ways and who cannot think outside his own boundaries. Perhaps it is linked to a report I read about recently, which seems to suggest that people of a certain (right-wing) perspective had a "more pronounced amygdala – a primitive part of the brain associated with emotion...". No comment. -
Alec Cowan at 22:52 PM on 30 December 2010We're heading into an ice age
@kfdv #190 Are you aware this is all written, aren't you? What do you suppose students will think about when they analyze your answer to #188 ? -
Alec Cowan at 22:34 PM on 30 December 2010Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming - Revised
@RSVP #96 Thank you, thank you, thank you! " ... AND the receiver!" This will be commented for ages. -
JMurphy at 22:10 PM on 30 December 2010Climate sensitivity is low
Berényi Péter wrote : "So much about nonsense." At last : something you have written which all can agree with ! I just wish you would heed your own words... PS Have you read the Advanced Version of this topic ? It may help.
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