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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 100101 to 100150:

  1. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    co2isnotevil, a question for you. Do you, like RW1, believe that the 396 W/m^2 shown in http://www.palisad.com/co2/div2/div2.html includes latent heat transfer and thermals? If so, show any scientific source that confirms that SB includes nonradiative transfer. If not, please correct RW1's misconception and then explain why latent heat and thermal transfer to the atmosphere can be ignored (along with solar heating of the atmosphere)
  2. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    RW1 - The surface of the Earth is close to being a decent black-body, with an emissivity of 0.96 to 0.99. However, the effective emissivity with cloud cover and GHG's is 0.612. The temperature (at dynamic equilibrium) of the surface of the Earth is determined by input energy from the sun to the surface and atmosphere and the effective emissivity of the Earth, which notably changes due to GHG concentration. Without GHG's it would be at least 33C colder, for example. Again, as stated here: don't talk about 3C warming from a 3.7 W/m^2 CO2 forcing unless you include the feedback that raises 1.2C forcing to 3C temperature change. That's the climate sensitivity, which (primarily through water vapor effects) is expected to multiply the forcing by ~2.5. You seem to keep mixing the total forcing+feedback to try to argue against the forcing.
  3. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    KR, The difference between a BB and a grey body is well known and included in any radiative analysis. Inferring that I don't understand this tells me that you aren't paying attention. The fact that you're missing is that the surface is almost an ideal BB radiator, especially in the LW IR. The Earth itself, as seen from space, is a grey body because the atmosphere is between the surface and space. Perhaps it would also help if you understood that the theoretical maximum blocking of surface power by the atmosphere is 50%. You can test this yourself by comparing the power radiated by the coldest cloud tops and the power radiated by the surface beneath them. This will never be less than 1/2. Venus is somewhat different because the thermal mass of the planet is primarily energized CO2 above the surface, while on Earth, it's ground state water below the surface. You also don't seem to understand the Stefan-Boltzmann Law. If the surface temperature increases by from 287K to 300K (a 3C rise), it's emitted power must increase by 16 W/m^2. Conservation of energy tells us that this power flux must be coming from somewhere. There is about 3.8 W/m^2 of incremental absorption by doubling CO2 (run modtran yourself if you don't believe me). Only half of this affects the surface, so I ask you, in order to satisfy COE, where is the extra 14.2 W/m^2 coming from? If you think it's the feedback, then I suggest you go back and study Bode and basic thermodynamics.
  4. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    Mea culpa - I believe I have misinterpreted a couple of things in the last post. A 3C warming (total, from whatever source) of the surface will result in 16.8 W/m^2 increase (14C to 17C) in surface IR. At dynamic equilibrium this means an additional 16.8 W/m^2 of backradiation, +/- depending on what's changed in terms of thermal and evaporation pathways. The emissive levels in the troposphere would likely be higher, too, lots of other changes. We would still expect a power flow of ~240 W/m^2 from the sun and ~240 W/m^2 out to space as IR - the surface temperature will be driven by the input energy and total emissivity required to radiate that energy. A single 'gain' factor doesn't encompass the details of that. However - The 3.7 W/m^2 forcing from doubling CO2 will result in a direct forcing of only 1.2C. The value of 3C surface warming includes current estimates for climate sensitivity (look, actual relevance to the thread!). Hence arguing that 3.7 W/m^2 of direct forcing can't cause 16 W/m^2 of direct + feedback is mixing apples and oranges, and is a bad argument. We know what the direct forcing for a CO2 doubling will be. The climate sensitivity is rather more debatable, but appears to be ~3C for that doubling. And that means ~3C for 1.2C of solar forcing, if the insolation changes that much. Argue the forcing, or argue the sensitivity. Claiming the sensitivity issue(s) invalidate the forcing is really pointless.
  5. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    co2isnotevil, in your first paragraph in 374, the Pc calculation doesn't matter, nor does Pe. As I pointed out in 208, that tangent is dropped and "gain" is determined solely from Ps. That's one of my lessons learned, don't follow tangents and don't start them. In this case I was following a tangent in the paper. As for "gain" itself, that has more than adequately been addressed above such as in 210.
  6. Comparing all the temperature records
    47: "no starting or ending point can ever be wrong. Also, any period length is allowed" Sorry, but you are incorrect. See the thread on statistical significance and the thread on misuse of significance tests for starters. Significance of measurement is a fundamental point in every science; misuse in any form is a serious and very common flaw. But you obviously understand that; why else would you bring up your 'longest cold spell'?
  7. Is it safe to double atmospheric Carbon Dioxide over a 200 year period?
    Is there any point in reducing my "carbon footprint" by 50% (even if I could) if the Earths population is set to double in the next 50 or 100 years ? Surely carbon use is an effect and population growth a cause, and not one which politicians will relish tackling ?
  8. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    KR, "The Earth is not a black-body radiator, but a 'gray-body'" But the surface of the earth is very close to a perfect black body radiator. This is why S-B (where emissivity "e" = 1) is used to calculate equivalent surface power to temperature and vice versa. "is that it takes 16 W/m^2 of incremental surface power for a 3C rise in surface temperature" is absolutely incorrect. 3.Y W/m^2 at TOA accounts for a 1.2C CO2 forcing, and feedbacks are expected to raise that to 3C. A raw forcing of 3C from CO2 would require 9.25 W/m^2, and from that we would expect 7.5C of rise with feedback. Your 'amplification factor' is nonsense." From S-B, at a surface power of 396, it takes 16 W/m^2 of additional power to increase the surface temperature 3 C. (396 + 16 = 412 W/m^2; 412 W/m^2 = 292K; 292K-288K = 3C).
  9. Comparing all the temperature records
    Norman (#15, #19, #22) had the audacity to point out a recent period of time, where he saw, if not a cooling trend, at least not a clear warming trend. For this 'felony' he was ridiculed by other writers (e.g. ##23-28). - "Norman, I was driving back down south for Christmas and halfway along I drove over a mountain pass. From this I have concluded that driving south is all downhill." He was accused of "cherry-picking of the highest order", or "blatant cherrypicking" (whichever is worst). He committed a climate faux pas. He is probably not ever coming back to this forum (re: #27). But Norman also got pieces of friendly advice in several comments, like, - please, take a look at other 12-year periods as well, or - please, use a longer period than 12 years. Specifically he was encouraged to not use 1998 as the starting point (because it was a warm year), but instead use another year, like 1997 or 1999 (because those were colder years). Voila, no trend! My experiences, from reading countless posts and comments on this website, tell me that if the purpose is to show something that is connected to warming (whether it be temperature curves, polar ice melting, or coral depletion) - no starting or ending point can ever be wrong. Also, any period length is allowed: 10 years, 12, 17, 30, or 87 years - all are OK. It doesn't matter as long as the cause is to show warming. However, if you want to present a trend that is connected to cooling, or even to warming at a slower rate, there are many important rules that you have to follow. Basically, don't go there! By the way, here in Stockholm, Sweden, we have now had the longest continuous cold spell since the winter of 1788-1789 (yes, we have a long unbroken series of temperature measurements, starting in 1756). But hey, that's only where I live, and that's not very global is it?
  10. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    co2isnotevil - Your post here has far more incorrect statements than correct ones (if any). The Earth is not a black-body radiator, but a 'gray-body', as seen in the TOA spectra (Figure 1 here). The 'gain' is a variant result, not an input, and doesn't actually relate to the visible light input power and thermal IR output power physics. "is that it takes 16 W/m^2 of incremental surface power for a 3C rise in surface temperature" is absolutely incorrect. 3.Y W/m^2 at TOA accounts for a 1.2C CO2 forcing, and feedbacks are expected to raise that to 3C. A raw forcing of 3C from CO2 would require 9.25 W/m^2, and from that we would expect 7.5C of rise with feedback. Your 'amplification factor' is nonsense. http://www.palisad.com/co2 consists of exceedingly bad numbers (as I noted here), misinformation, and a collection of denier themes that can be found searching the top 20 skeptic arguments here. That's not a good source, but rather a quick trip into irrelevancy. I could go on, but I quite frankly don't see any point in it.
  11. Is it safe to double atmospheric Carbon Dioxide over a 200 year period?
    See also the Extreme weather thread, especially the Hansen quote here.
  12. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    Bibliovermis, re #233 and many that followed Forcing has no implicit time over which it occurs, only a time by which the system responds, known as the time constant. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time_constant The climate is readily modeled as a first order LTI as, Pi = Po + dE/dt, where Pi is the power arriving from the Sun, Po is the power leaving the planet and E is the total energy stored in the Earth's thermal mass. When dE/dt is positive, the planet warms and when negative, it cools. Po is dependent on reflectivity and the temperature of the thermal mass and other factors dependent on E, collectively lumped into tau, thus fitting the general form of an LTI described by the above wikipedia entry as, dE/dt + 1/tau E = (1-r)Pi, where r is the reflectivity and (1-r)Pi is the forcing function f(t). This is where the definition of forcing actually comes from. In fact, GHG absorption influences the time constant and is not even properly considered forcing. Only power from the Sun can actually force the climate system, what the IPCC considers forcings simply modify the systems response. This is yet another manifestation of the confusion between gain and feedback where forcing and the response to forcing are similarly confused. The response of such a system to an immediate change is called it's impulse response and takes the form of the decaying exponential exp(-t/tau). If the forcing function is a sinusoid of the form exp(-jwt), the steady state solution (after at least 4-5 periods) is a delayed sinusoid of the form exp(-jwt)/(jw+1/tau). There's a second differential equation which relates the capacity and transfer characters of a thermal mass to dT/dt and F (also shown in the above wikipedia entry), where the flux F, is equal to dE/dt. The linear relationship between dE/dt and dT/dt is often misapplied to infer a linear relationship between 'forcing' and temperature, justifying a linear sensitivity, except that dE/dt is not the forcing, Pi is the forcing function and dE/dt is the response to that forcing. Finally, solar power is far from constant. It has latitude specific daily and seasonal variability all of which are easily represented as functions of the form exp(-jwt) and from which the time constants can be inferred by measuring the response to such stimulus. If indeed this was not relevant, there would be no differences in the climate between night and day, summer and winter or even latitude. There are also long and short term solar cycles and Milankovitch forcings affecting solar variability. It's not the average magnitude of solar radiation, but how that intersects with hemispheric and seasonal specific reflectivity.
  13. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    Eric, re #208 #211 The Ps and Pc values come from the raw ISCCP data. These are converted to surface and cloud top temperatures with a lookup table implementation of SB. The ISCCP defines the surface to be an ideal BB radiator with an equivalent temperature, but since in the IR, the Earth is nearly a perfect BB radiator, this is a good approximation and SB exactly defines the relationship between radiated power and equivalent temperature. Pw is generally small, but is the power converted by the Carnot engine driving weather into the work of weather. It may actually be 0 in the steady state, where the energy driving weather nominally comes from the latent heat of evaporation. The seasonal variability of the gain has more to do with seasonally variable surface reflectivity than anything else. The 1.6 value is a yearly average, so any seasonal gain variability averages out. The bottom line is that it takes 16 W/m^2 of incremental surface power for a 3C rise in surface temperature. Of the 3.7 W/m^2 of incremental absorption from doubling CO2, 1.9 W/m^2 actually affects the surface. This requires an average amplification of over 8. While the peak at the poles can even exceed 8, the average is all that matters relative to the long term effect of doubling CO2. The only way to reconcile this discrepancy is to treat power from GHG absorption as being many times more powerful at affecting surface temperatures than power from the Sun. Obviously, I can't accept this. A view of the gain as a scatter plot is here. http://www.palisad.com/co2/gf/st_ga.png The convergence of the surface gain to 1.6 is quite clear. Some of the higher gain values at the poles are the result of accounting for power transferred from mid latitudes, which tends to push mid and lower latitude gains down. While this appears to be a criticism of L&C, from the scatter plot, the average behavior of each 2.5 degree slice of latitude (green and blue dots) shows a very consistent interpolation between the equator and the poles. Note that for display purposes only, the individual gain data points were truncated to 12.
  14. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    Eric, re 302 A is simply the radiative input from the surface to the atmosphere. The atmosphere then radiates this absorbed power up and down according to the laws of BB radiation. Is it your contention that a heated gas does not radiate as a black body? Also consider that evaporation/precipitation is a closed loop which redistributes energy from the tropics to the poles. Why is this any different than an oceanic or atmospheric circulation that does the same thing? You must keep in mind that a portion (albeit small) of the planets thermal mass is in the atmosphere and that circulation currents are what move energy around the entire thermal mass, including between the oceans and the atmosphere (actually clouds).
  15. We're heading into an ice age
    #189 The significance is that the record cold in the uk is happening with vastly increased CO2. This seems to go against the trend.
    Moderator Response: Nope. Use the Search field to find the post It's Freaking Cold.
  16. We're heading into an ice age
    #188 Are these the only years, because they have a big significance. The first three were a long time ago.
  17. Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming - Revised
    RSVP - I posted my "box example" to illustrate greenhouse gas warming: the GHG box plate warms at some rate, while the non-GHG box plate (and gas) do not warm at all. I'll note that "I assume the top is temperature controlled and much cooler than backplate in order to approximate something like an open sky" is something I did not say - please do not introduce strawmen. In a single-plane GHG example (which the box example is, as there isn't enough room for convective lapse rates) the IR leaving the GHG layer will equal that going back to the surface. In the actual™ climate, however, by the time the greenhouse gases thin enough to emit to space, the lapse rate means that those layers are very cold, and hence emit much less than surface level GHG's. Hence there is a big difference between IR traded around at ground level and that emitted to space. Which is a big part of the Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming discussed on this topic.
  18. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    Eric, "So you believe that the S-B formula accounts for evaporative cooling and conduction?" No. "There are no applicable factors in the formula to account for those." Correct. It determines radiation only." No, the S-B formula determines the equivalent temperature at the surface from the total power at the surface (and vice versa).
  19. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    "The 396 W/m^2 power flux at the surface already accounts for the thermals and latent heat transfer - that is why the diagram shows them in the atmosphere away from the surface and not at the surface." So you believe that the S-B formula accounts for evaporative cooling and conduction? There are no applicable factors in the formula to account for those. It determines radiation only. Ok, archiesteel was right, (110, 120, 134, ...). The fact is, RW1, that you didn't show us your incorrect website until post 150. Lesson learned for me: read the offending website completely, determine the most basic errors, don't go on tangents, don't allow tangents, and keep my promise to stop responding.
  20. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    Eric, "The total power flux (or heat transfer) from the surface is the radiated power plus conducted power producing thermals, plus latent transfer from evaporated cooling. As you agreed in #346, the earth conducts heat to the atmosphere. That has to be added to the radiative transfer to get the total." Why do you think this? The 396 W/m^2 power flux at the surface already accounts for the thermals and latent heat transfer - that is why the diagram shows them in the atmosphere away from the surface and not at the surface. If there was no conduction and convection, the surface would be warmer than it is - over 30 C (396 + 17 + 80 = 493; 493 W/m^2 = 305.4K). Does this clarify things?
  21. Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming - Revised
    KR #89 For purposes of the discussion, I think you would allow the heat source to be substituted with a heating filament. One that is embedded in the backplane. This is not necessary as the lamp will do, however, it might be helpful for illustrating what follows. I would agree that that backplane would heat faster as you say if it were covered with an ideal layer of insulation. However, it is my understanding that this GHG only insulates partially, and as the featured article explains, passes energy off to surrounding molecules in the gas mixture. This being the case, and these in turn having their own thermal interia, will in fact require an instantaneous portion of the energy coming from the source, such that the temperature of the backplane will take longer to reach its maximum, as opposed to heating faster as you say above. So it is not clear to me which of these two factors wins out. Furthermore, it would seem that the larger the cylinder (and greater its volume regardless of GHG concentration), the more it would tend to do what I say, vs what you say. The backradiation should never be greater than the GHG upward radiation, since I assume the top is temperature controlled and much cooler than backplate in order to approximate something like an open sky, a factor independent of the fact the area of heat emission is now greater than the that of the plate on its own due to radiative contributions from the "GHGs".
  22. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    RW1, Ok, you're just being obtuse, and I doubt you are here for serious conversation. If you can't be bothered to look up the definition of power, then this conversation is pointless.
  23. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    RW1 - You make a curious statement here: "There is no distinction between "thermal radiation" and power - they are one in the same" I suppose I should now junk my car (thermal expansion power from exothermic reactions, not to mention thermal conduction to convective cooling at the radiator) and electric razor (electric power), as they cannot use energy to accomplish work??? You're wandering very far afield. Power is the net movement of energy accomplishing work. Temperature is the result of energy sitting still (present in an object as molecular motion).
  24. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    e, "You asked us how power at the surface could be larger than power input from the sun, I answered your question, did you understand my explanation or not?" No, I asked how 239 W/m^2 of the surface power cannot be be from the Sun?
  25. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    e, "No total power is total power, it includes radiation as well as convective heat transfer. Stefan-Boltzmann only applies to thermal radiation not to power in general. Thus, the temperature estimate does not change, as you are deriving it only from the radiative component of total power." There is no distinction between "thermal radiation" and power - they are one in the same. Thermal radiation is measured in W/m^2, which is an equivalent power.
  26. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    RW1, You asked us how power at the surface could be larger than power input from the sun, I answered your question, did you understand my explanation or not?
  27. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    "No, 396 W/m^2 is the total power at the surface. The "total power" at the surface is same thing as the radiated power at the surface (so is the "power flux"). If it wasn't, the temperature could not be 289K" RW1, that is simply incorrect. The total power flux (or heat transfer) from the surface is the radiated power plus conducted power producing thermals, plus latent transfer from evaporated cooling. As you agreed in #346, the earth conducts heat to the atmosphere. That has to be added to the radiative transfer to get the total.
  28. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    RW1 >396 W/m^2 is the total power at the surface ... If it wasn't, the temperature could not be 289K. No total power is total power, it includes radiation as well as convective heat transfer. Stefan-Boltzmann only applies to thermal radiation not to power in general. Thus, the temperature estimate does not change, as you are deriving it only from the radiative component of total power.
  29. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    e, "I am explaining to you how the gross radiation emitted by the surface can be greater than the net input from the sun, even though there are no other sources of energy other than the sun." We all know this already.
  30. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    Eric, "RW1 (#353), the 396 in your post is not "total power at the surface" it is just the radiated power. It is missing the other transfers. KR showed the power equation in #327" No, 396 W/m^2 is the total power at the surface. The "total power" at the surface is same thing as the radiated power at the surface (so is the "power flux"). If it wasn't, the temperature could not be 289K.
  31. Did Global Warming stop in 1998, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2010?
    @NETDR: posting about the PDO seems off-topic, but since moderators are allowing it allow me to respond. The PDO is a cycle, and as such it's overall trend curve is flat. The temperature increase, however shows a definite positive trend. Therefore, the current warming is not some sort of post-PDO bounce. In fact, the past 30 years show a strong positive trend for temperature, while the PDO index has been going down. "This periodic "failure to warm" makes the case for Catastrophic AGW look very thin !" There is no "failure to warm." "But that is just a coincidence ! RIGHT ?" Don't shout, please. It does not add to your already damaged credibility. While there is some degree of apparent correlation, it does seem it is CO2 that overrides the PDO, not the other way around. Facts simply do not agree with your interpretation of the PDO data.
    Moderator Response: You're right, rhis now has gone thoroughly off topic. Comments after this one must go on the PDO thread. No complaining that so-and-so got to post here, so you should be able to follow up here.
  32. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    RW1, I am explaining to you how the gross radiation emitted by the surface can be greater than the net input from the sun, even though there are no other sources of energy other than the sun. Did my explanation make sense or no?
  33. Did Global Warming stop in 1998, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2010?
    NETDR: This periodic "failure to warm" makes the case for Catastrophic AGW look very thin ! This claim makes no sense whatsoever. Please show your work.
  34. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    e, "I want to make sure this is clear: every single Watt in Trenberth's diagram comes from the sun. You cannot differentiate between what portion is or isn't from the sun, because it is all from the sun. The reason you see numbers larger than the net solar input, is because the energy can move back and forth multiple times within the system, inflating the gross internal numbers. This is the essence of the greenhouse effect." What's your point?
  35. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    RW1 (#353), the 396 in your post is not "total power at the surface" it is just the radiated power. It is missing the other transfers. KR showed the power equation in #327
  36. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    e, "Did you read my earlier post? The 396 represents the "same" power bouncing back and forth between the surface and the atmosphere. All of that energy comes from the sun. You're trying to compare gross internal exchanges with the net input at TOA, it's apples and oranges." How do you figure? Is not 239 W/m^2 from the Sun less than 396 W/m^2 at the surface?
  37. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    RW1, I want to make sure this is clear: every single Watt in Trenberth's diagram comes from the sun. You cannot differentiate between what portion is or isn't from the sun, because it is all from the sun. The reason you see numbers larger than the net solar input, is because the energy can move back and forth multiple times within the system, inflating the gross internal numbers. This is the essence of the greenhouse effect.
  38. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    RW1>If 239 W/m^2 of the total power of 396 W/m^2 at the surface isn't coming from the post albedo power from the Sun, then where is it coming from? Did you read my earlier post? The 396 represents the "same" power bouncing back and forth between the surface and the atmosphere. All of that energy comes from the sun. You're trying to compare gross internal exchanges with the net input at TOA, it's apples and oranges.
  39. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    Eric, "RW1, you are trying to partially correct that incorrect diagram and are not succeeding. "A" in that diagram is just the portion of the 385 outgoing IR absorbed by the atmosphere. It is missing the heat transfer from incoming solar (78), thermals (17), latent transfer (80)." Show me the power in = power out calculations.
  40. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    No one has yet to answer my question: If 239 W/m^2 of the total power of 396 W/m^2 at the surface isn't coming from the post albedo power from the Sun, then where is it coming from?
  41. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    RW1, you are trying to partially correct that incorrect diagram and are not succeeding. "A" in that diagram is just the portion of the 385 outgoing IR absorbed by the atmosphere. It is missing the heat transfer from incoming solar (78), thermals (17), latent transfer (80).
  42. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    RW1, Hold on, are you thinking that solar radiation has to stay radiation as it travels through the system? If so, you are very much mistaken. Energy can and does change forms as it travels within the system. It can start as radiation, change into thermal energy, then into convective motion, then back into radiation, or any arbitrary combination of the above. The energy can also "bounce" back and forth between the atmosphere and surface multiple times, which is how the gross back radiation manages to be larger than the net solar input. It represents the "same" energy moving back and forth between atmosphere and surface.
  43. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    Eric, "RW1, unfortunately "moving energy around non-radiatively" does matter. Since the earth is moving energy into the atmosphere via latent heat and thermals, it means that "A" in the diagram in the second link in 343 is not the only source of atmospheric heat." "A" is not the only source of atmospheric heat - it's the amount of heat absorbed and re-radiated by GHGs and clouds. Why do you think energy moved thermally and convectively into the atmosphere cannot be absorbed and re-radiated by the atmosphere? "There is also, for example, the heat released when the evaporated water condenses. That heat is missing in that diagram. How is that heat missing? All of the energy is accounted for.
  44. Did Global Warming stop in 1998, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2010?
    Sorry, the "recent" El Nino. Those have a shorter time scale than solar influences which are also short term compared to long term CO2 warming. So, for example, we should see an OHC rise over the next few years if the La Nina sticks around.
  45. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    RW1 - "Thermals and latent heat transfer are non-radiative components - they are conductive and convective components": Components which move energy to the upper troposphere, where atmospheric H2O and CO2 thin enough to radiate that energy to space. This is clearly shown in the atmospheric spectra (Figure 1 here), where the notches in the TOA outgoing spectra are from colder high atmosphere GHG's rather than the surface. Much of your discussion seems to be treating the climate thermodynamics as a two-body problem, rather than the three-body separation in Trenberth, and mixing terms between them (i.e., you still don't seem to understand the energy budget diagrams, 'net power', or dynamic thermal equilibrium). Again, errors where your input numbers do not match measurements will lead to erroneous conconclusions.
  46. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    RW1 >The thermals and latent heat transfer don't matter because they aren't contributing to the overall radiation budget The radiation emitted by the atmosphere is determined by its temperature, and the temperature is determined by the input of energy, which includes thermals and latent heat transfer. You cannot reason about the energy flux of the atmosphere while ignoring a significant source of that energy. If I gave you $1000, it doesn't matter if some of it was in check form and some of it was in cash, either way you have $1000 in spending power. Energy in the atmosphere works the same way, it doesn't matter how the energy got there, all that matters is that it's there.
  47. Did Global Warming stop in 1998, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2010?
    Eric @12, Err, there is an unusually strong La Nina on the go right now, since around June 2010 in fact.
  48. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    RW1, unfortunately "moving energy around non-radiatively" does matter. Since the earth is moving energy into the atmosphere via latent heat and thermals, it means that "A" in the diagram in the second link in 343 is not the only source of atmospheric heat. There is also, for example, the heat released when the evaporated water condenses. That heat is missing in that diagram. It is not the only error in that diagram.
  49. Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
    Eric, "My question to you: does the earth conduct heat to the atmosphere or not?" Yes. "If yes, is that included in BB radiation or not?" No. Thermals and latent heat transfer are non-radiative components - they are conductive and convective components.
  50. Did Global Warming stop in 1998, 1995, 2002, 2007, 2010?
    IMO "La Nina" is just another way of saying "the ocean is storing the warmth" (see fig 2 in Robust-warming-of-the-global-upper-ocean.html) That means the current El Nino is an example of the ocean is giving up stored warmth and/or not storing the CO2+feedback warmth or even storing the cooling which some say is supposed to occur during low solar activity.

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