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dana1981 at 16:42 PM on 7 December 2010A Cloudy Outlook for Low Climate Sensitivity
Oh geez Camburn, you're really getting ridiculous now. Several people have showed you that HadCRUT data has a warming trend (about 0.12°C per decade) over the past 15 years. By now it's probably even statistically significant at the 95% confidence level, given that the quote from Jones was at the start of 2010, which has been the hottest year on record. And your insinuations about GISTEMP are just ludicrous. I know "skeptics" want us to just ignore the Arctic since it's experiencing the highest rate of warming, but I hate to break it to you - the Arctic is part of the globe too. As others have noted, the evidence is mounting against a significant GCR impact on the climate. And frankly it's rather aggravating that people who want to be considered "skeptics" latch onto the GCR theory with such ferocity. The AGW theory has mountains of supporting evidence. The GCR warming theory has little supporting evidence and mounting contradictory evidence. A true open-minded skeptic would be able to see that the former theory is far more credible than the latter. Frankly anyone who rejects AGW and supports GCR warming forfeits the 'skeptic' label in my book. -
Daniel Bailey at 16:37 PM on 7 December 2010The human fingerprint in the seasons
Re: Norman (121, 122) From your terracycles website you refer to:"The Aether Physics Model reveals the physics for generating new matter. Just as the Casimir effect generates new electron-sized photons from Aether, a similar process (mistakenly called fusion) generates new proton-sized photons from Aether. The proton-sized photons convert to protons within the nucleus of atoms, thus transmuting the elements and adding mass to the Earth (and Sun, Mars, Moon, etc). The transmutation of atoms further causes a continual change in the Earth's chemistry."
Um, Norman, you may want to exert a little more discretion in your source selection. If you want to be taken seriously, anyway. Just sayin' The Yooper -
Norman at 16:08 PM on 7 December 2010The human fingerprint in the seasons
corrct link for Sunspot number vs Global SST.Response: Norman, you'll notice the graphs at your link are very old. The reason for this is because the latest data indicates solar activity and climate have been moving in opposite directions in recent decades. For instance, that graph uses a 1991 graph of solar cycle length compared to temperature. Since that paper (now nearly 2 decades old) came out, one of its authors have updated their data and found solar cycle length and temperature diverge when the recent global warming of the last few decades began:
The top figure compares temperature to solar cycles. The bottom figure plots the difference between temperature and solar cycle length, showing a strong divergence in the mid 1970s (Lassen 1999).
Similarly, solar activity as calculated from sunspot numbers and direct satellite measurements have found sun and climate have been moving in opposite directions in recent decades:
You have to wonder about a webpage that uses 2 decade old data when more recent data by the same author refutes their argument. Are they aware of the updated data and intentionally excluded it? Or merely ignorant? -
Norman at 16:05 PM on 7 December 2010The human fingerprint in the seasons
Most the posts seem to feel that the TSI is the only important item to look at when determining if the Sun is a climate forcing agent. What about Sunspot number? You can see in the graphs that Sunspot numbers have increased in our century. Very cold periods were noted during times of low sunspot number. Graph of Sunspot number. In the graph below, Sunspot number Vs Global SST, is this correlation even if one does not know the cause?. -
Norman at 15:57 PM on 7 December 2010The human fingerprint in the seasons
I think some of the lines of thought are oversimplified in this thread. "Solar warming should result in the tropics warming faster than the poles. What we observe instead is the poles warming around 3 times faster than the equator." Why form this conclusion. This would be a true statement if the air did not move heat around. The reason the Poles do not get as cold as the Darkside of Moon is because warmer air moves to the colder areas and moderates the temperature. With heat being a moveable quantity on Earth, it is too simplistic to assume the Equator would warm faster. Here is another possible explanation. If the Sun was hotter and adding more heat to the Equator, what could happen, the added heat goes into water evaporation. This process keeps the measured temperature from rising much even though the area has more total heat energy (an assumption this is a thought experiment). Now this warm moist air rises, cools and rains. The condensation returns the evaporation heat back to the upper troposphere, the rising air is in the form of a Hadley Cell and moves until it starts to sink where it is dry and warms via adiabatic heating. Through this process a heated equator can move the excess heat to the poles warming them more than it is warmed. Chinook winds. "As moist winds from the Pacific (also called Chinooks) are forced to rise over the mountains, the moisture in the air is condensed and falls out as precipitation, while the air cools at the moist adiabatic rate of 5°C/1000 m (3.5°F/1000 ft). The dried air then descends on the leeward side of the mountains, warming at the dry adiabatic rate of 10°C/1000m (5.5°F/1000 ft).[4]" -
Norman at 15:34 PM on 7 December 2010The human fingerprint in the seasons
115 Daniel Bailey, I have read some things by Barton Paul Levenson. Here is something from NASA on this line of thought. Cause of Stratospheric Cooling. Quote from this page: "The stratosphere gets warmer during solar maxima because the ozone layer absorbs ultraviolet light; more ultraviolet light during solar maxima means warmer temperatures. Ozone depletion explains the biggest part of the cooling of the stratosphere over recent decades, but it can’t account for all of it. Increased concentrations of carbon dioxide in the troposphere and stratosphere together contribute to cooling in the stratosphere." The claim is that ozone depletion explains the biggest part of the cooling. In post 55 by HumanityRules I checked up on the article he linked to and it explains that a very active Sun cycle will destroy some ozone so an active Sun can cool the stratosphere by damaging the ozone layer. -
muoncounter at 15:04 PM on 7 December 2010The human fingerprint in the seasons
#117: Yooper, Your theory regarding the WotEF is clearly junk science as it is not falsifiable. Evidence is mounting, on the other hand, for competing theories: a. The WotEF was caused by a catastrophic accidental load shift (CALS) in its cargo of hockey sticks intended for a WhiteFish Bay area youth hockey league. b. The WotEF was caused by a catastrophic release of methane from the previously uncharted clathrate deposits of Gitchigoomie. You will note as well, that according to the noted Canadian climatologist G. Lightfoot, "the snows of November came early". Clearly there has been no warming since 1975. Personally, I blame it on El Nino. -
Ned at 15:04 PM on 7 December 2010How to explain Milankovitch cycles to a hostile Congressman in 30 seconds
Chemware, CW was referring to the Holocene thermal maximum, on the order of 8000 years before present. So your point is a good one for addressing the claim that Ursus maritimus must have been able to survive warm periods in the more distant past, but it doesn't answer CW's comment above. -
Chemware at 15:01 PM on 7 December 2010How to explain Milankovitch cycles to a hostile Congressman in 30 seconds
#18, ClimateWatcher: "But either way, the polar bears survived ..." Err, actually, no. Polar bears only evolved about 150kY ago from brown bears. Probably due to climate change :D -
Ned at 15:00 PM on 7 December 2010The human fingerprint in the seasons
Daniel, that comment made my day. Thanks. -
caerbannog at 14:43 PM on 7 December 2010How to explain Milankovitch cycles to a hostile Congressman in 30 seconds
ClimateWatcher said, Further, orbital variation is going impose Arctic melting greater than present for nearly all of the next hundred thousand years anyway. Add ClimateWatcher to the long list of skeptics who don't understand the concept of dT/dt. -
Daniel Bailey at 14:19 PM on 7 December 2010The human fingerprint in the seasons
Re: muoncounter (114) Actually, the warming of Lake Superior is in fact caused by waste heat slowly rising from the warmer deeps to the colder surface from The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald. Recent revelations from Wikileaks have finally unveiled the truth: that the Fitzgerald sank on its maiden voyage to sea test a prototype thorium reactor. Unfortunately, what should have been a three-hour cruise to the Soo and back was interrupted by a violent storm initiated by the galactic cosmic rays attracted to the emissions from the thorium reactor. The captain said 'let's put this one to bed' before the waves turned the minutes to hours. Officially, there's no consensus as to the cause of the sinking. Replicators from the NTSB have so far been unsuccessful in determining the actual cause. Feelin' Lucky to be a Yooper -
kdkd at 14:16 PM on 7 December 2010A Cloudy Outlook for Low Climate Sensitivity
ailrick #90 after Camburn ""After all, GAGW is still in the hypothosis stage and has not advanced to theory stage." I'm not a scientist, but the way I understand the distinction is, that a theory is a hypothesis that has withstood the scrutiny of peer review. That would make every idea, the skeptics have, a hypothesis, and AGW a theory." Something like that. Camburn clearly has a very limited understanding of what science is. What it clearly isn't is a linear progression of discrete ideas from hypothesis, to theory, to law. That would be silly. Silly enough that if that proposition were true, much of the infrastructure of modern civilisation would not work as it is based on scientific theory rather than scientific laws, of which there are remarkably few, especially outside of the domain of experimental physics. -
Marcus at 14:02 PM on 7 December 2010How to explain Milankovitch cycles to a hostile Congressman in 30 seconds
ClimateWatcher, the warming that occurred during the Holocene Climatic Optimum occurred over *thousands* of years-& actually occurred at a Glacial Rate (if you'll pardon the pun). What we're currently seeing is a similar warming rate-only measured in *decades*, rather than millenia. You reckon anyone is going to get through that OK? -
sailrick at 13:55 PM on 7 December 2010A Cloudy Outlook for Low Climate Sensitivity
Just watched a video last night, featuring Spencer claiming - since CO2 is such a small part of the atmosphere................. yawn. No I wouldn't bet on him being right. Camburn "After all, GAGW is still in the hypothosis stage and has not advanced to theory stage." I'm not a scientist, but the way I understand the distinction is, that a theory is a hypothesis that has withstood the scrutiny of peer review. That would make every idea, the skeptics have, a hypothesis, and AGW a theory. "Climate Scientists Defend IPCC Peer Review as Most Rigorous in History" by Stacy Feldman - Feb 26th, 2010 at Solve Climate dot com "Nicholls, a professor at Monash University in Victoria, Australia, said the IPCC 2007 Fourth Assessment report was subjected to several rigorous tiers of review. The study cites over 10,000 papers from the scientific literature, "most of which have already been through the peer-review process to get into the scientific literature." "The report went through four separate reviews and received 90,000 comments from 2,500 reviewers, all of which are publicly available, along with the responses of the authors, Nicholls said." by Stacy Feldman - Feb 26th, 2010 at Solve Climate dot.com -
Henry justice at 13:24 PM on 7 December 2010CO2 is coming from the ocean
Nice article. This one and "CO2 Pollution and Global Warming" by Barbalace represents real science. This really shows where the carbon is coming from. Since O2 has decreased, then the oceans have not warmed very much (O2 should be out gassed as well as CO2). So, the 100 ppm increase in the atmospheric CO2 may really be from fossil fuel burning from the industrial age. Nice work everyone. -
Daniel Bailey at 13:09 PM on 7 December 2010The human fingerprint in the seasons
Re: Norman (113) Barton Paul Levenson, an atmospheric physicist, covers that pretty well here. The Yooper -
muoncounter at 13:05 PM on 7 December 2010The human fingerprint in the seasons
#112: "it seems the El Nino effect has something to do with... " Hi Norman, Or maybe its a longer term thing: Lake Superior summer (July–September) surface water temperatures have increased approximately 2.5C over the interval 1979–2006, equivalent to a rate of (11 ± 6) 10-2C /yr, significantly in excess of regional atmospheric warming. This discrepancy is caused by declining winter ice cover, which is causing the onset of the positively stratified season to occur earlier at a rate of roughly a half day per year. Remember this little ditty from a few years back? -
robert way at 12:50 PM on 7 December 2010How to explain Milankovitch cycles to a hostile Congressman in 30 seconds
Climatewatcher, The effect of insolation on climate is a weak radiative forcing but just enough to cause initial changes which are amplified by greenhouse gas increases that the initial perturbations causes. The important thing that you are missing is that the Holocene Climatic Optimum occurred at different times for different places. This is largely due to the feedback mechanisms and climatic controls of the ice sheets which were still melting away. You have to also consider that sea levels were higher during the Holocene optimum and Dr. Alley suggested by as much as 0.5 m which is not an insignificant amount. Globally temperatures over that period were not much warmer than today (at most 1°C) indicating a high sensitivity from ice as most of the glaciers in the northern hemisphere disappeared at that time and greenland was smaller. Another important thing that you are missing is the rate of change being different with similar magnitudes, slow changes in temperature give the system more time to reach a new equilibrium state whereas very fast changes (such as the one we are currently causing) can cause chaotic responses. -
muoncounter at 12:49 PM on 7 December 2010A Cloudy Outlook for Low Climate Sensitivity
#87: "The evidence is mounting that CGR's do play a roll in climate. " What evidence? Disclose, man, we're all ears. -
muoncounter at 12:47 PM on 7 December 2010How to explain Milankovitch cycles to a hostile Congressman in 30 seconds
#18: "Arctic summer encountered much more insolation for thousands of years" Your graphic appears to be a calculated Milankovitch graph a la Hays Imbrie and Shackelton 1976. Interesting that the graph gets prominent play at a denier site (hockeyschtick; they can't even spell shtick correctly). The time scale is in thousands of years. I'm not sure what the relevance of that is for today's situation. One should also wonder about the CO2 concentrations were at the times when arctic summer insolation was so "much more". Compare that CO2 to today. Perhaps that helps explain why "Arctic temperatures weren't much warmer, in spite of much more irradiance ... the polar bears survived". Perhaps the smaller GHE due to lower CO2 moderated that higher irradiance. Look at the whole picture: Warming, Arctic melting with comparatively low insolation and high CO2. Maybe its time to start actually watching the climate rather than the shtick. -
Norman at 12:44 PM on 7 December 2010The human fingerprint in the seasons
Just wondering. Why should this be? "Similarly, if global warming was driven by the sun, we should see the stratosphere warming as well as the troposphere." Looking into this, the major cause of warming in the stratosphere is when something gets up there that can absorb solar radiation (like particles from a volcanic eruption). Under normal conditions, Ozone levels are what cause most of the stratospheric warming (absorption of UV energy). What part of the solar spectrum would be absorbed in the stratopshere to cause it to warm? -
Norman at 12:38 PM on 7 December 2010The human fingerprint in the seasons
111 muoncounter, From looking through the graphs it seems that El Nino effect has somthing to do with the warmth of the Big Lake. Check out 1998 and you can see a comprable temp. -
actually thoughtful at 12:19 PM on 7 December 2010Renewable Baseload Energy
Michael Sweet Here is an MIT study of Spain's wind systems circa 2008. It is fairly lightweight - nothing in there that we haven't seen in this thread. But it does have that "someone else said it" cache. Study or brochure More lightweight research, here in the American Journal of Applied Science 2009 http://www.scipub.org/fulltext/ajas/ajas62204-213.pdf The old standby isn't that bad: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_power_in_Spain Slightly more on grid storage: http://newenergyandfuel.com/http:/newenergyandfuel/com/2010/08/06/the-wind-power-storage-issue/ It seems that at least 20% can come from renewables without any thought of additional storage (Texas). We will eventually figure out how to price in unreliability (you can play with my power and I pay $.15/kWh - you get uninterrupted power, but pay $.20/kWh) - things of that type). There is much talk about the reliability of the grid, but every electrical device can handle a surprise power loss, brownouts and blackouts. Those sites that cannot handle that ALREADY have on-site generators. Because 99.99% reliable means a non-zero amount unreliable. Another point that people don't think about. Too stuck in the 1950s nuclear dreamscape. As I have said - the markets will make it work - we just need to stop the artificial low price of fossil fuels, so the markets get accurate information. -
Albatross at 12:13 PM on 7 December 2010How to explain Milankovitch cycles to a hostile Congressman in 30 seconds
Well ClimateWatcher @18, I think that you could teach Dr. Alley a thing or two ;) And to think I was worried about this whole AGW/ACC "kerfuffle" ;) Sorry, try again mate-- everything is not going to be just OK. I would/could elaborate but I imagine I'd only be wasting my time. Maybe others here are more patient than I. PS: Can we here assume that you then agree with Rohrabacher's beliefs and misguided understanding of the climate science? -
ClimateWatcher at 11:53 AM on 7 December 2010How to explain Milankovitch cycles to a hostile Congressman in 30 seconds
#13 The Arctic summer encountered much more insolation for thousands of years during the HCO:
If Arctic temperatures weren't much warmer, in spite of much more irradiance, it raises some serious questions about sensitivity.
But either way, the polar bears survived, the Inuit thrived, and Greenland's central ice persisted.
Further, orbital variation is going impose Arctic melting greater than present for nearly all of the next hundred thousand years anyway.
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actually thoughtful at 11:47 AM on 7 December 2010Renewable Baseload Energy
>40% is amazing for any country, anywhere, anywhen. Here is a quote that ties directly to this article: "The surge in wind power last night triggered water pumping stations which transport water into reservoirs. This store of water will then be released over the day generating electricity via water turbines at times of peak demand." short forum entry regarding wind in Spain This article is from November 09, and it references Nov 08 (same thing) - so we know they did it at least 3 times. Sigh. And in the United States we have Republicans threatening to (again) "investigate" the science - this means delay and deny. -
Rob Honeycutt at 11:00 AM on 7 December 2010A Cloudy Outlook for Low Climate Sensitivity
Camburn @ 87... From what I gather the evidence is mounting that GCR's play a small role in climate. -
michael sweet at 10:42 AM on 7 December 2010Renewable Baseload Energy
Last spring there were reports that Spain generated 40% of its electricity using wind for around 5 hours. Nameplate is about 11% and expanding at around 30% annualy. I have only seen newspaper reports (goggle "spain 40 percent electricity from wind" and lots of hits come up). Does anyone know how Spains' experience with this amount of energy from wind worked out? Problems? No problems? They are reported to still be increasing their wind capacity so it can't be all bad. Does Spains' energy relate to this thread? -
Camburn at 10:28 AM on 7 December 2010A Cloudy Outlook for Low Climate Sensitivity
archiesteel@77: Hadcrut data is the source. No.....I will change my statement. Statistics are important. Either you work within the error bars or you don't. I won't go into GISSTEMP and the errors of their Arctic measurements using the 1200K radius method. Prof Hansen will be correcting this I am sure. He is an honorable man. Riccardo@85: The evidence is mounting that CGR's do play a roll in climate.Response: Note that the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have independently determined that the HadCRUT record underestimates the warming record. They've created a reanalysis of Arctic temperatures using an entirely different method to GISSTemp, incorporating a range of sources including surface temperature measurements, satellites, radiosondes, ships and buoys.
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dana1981 at 09:32 AM on 7 December 2010How to explain Milankovitch cycles to a hostile Congressman in 30 seconds
The first video was painful to watch. Rohrabacher would repeat some long-debunked skeptic myth, Alley would start to explain, then a few seconds into the explanation, Rohrabacher would interrupt him. Good job by Alley not to let Rohrabacher interrupt/talk over him every time though. Rohrabacher gives Danas from California a bad name. -
robert way at 09:12 AM on 7 December 2010How to explain Milankovitch cycles to a hostile Congressman in 30 seconds
Ben Santer Mangles Patrick Michaels at minute 39 (ish) at the following link. Catches him lying about indirect versus direct aerosol radiative forcing effects. http://www.c-spanvideo.org/program/ChangePa -
actually thoughtful at 08:57 AM on 7 December 2010Renewable Baseload Energy
archiesteel all this and English as 2nd language! I am impressed. No harm, and as I said - we certainly agree that arguments should be made in good faith - and it isn't clear that everyone on this thread has done so. However - still informative. I end up being more optimistic that we can do it - get carbon out of the grid - 30% nuclear (a 50% increase for the United States) provides baseload- does what it does best - always on power) 5% hydro (because we already have it) and 65% renewables (with grid storage, which, as this post points out, is well on its way). We keep 20% of the total in gas plants that are ready to turn on. In the (near) future - electricity will be much more expensive at night, rather than in the day (hardest for renewables at night). The thing that is always missing from conversations of this type is - what will the market do? How will we react to the new reality? Probably pretty close to what we do now - by minimizing our costs. I imagine refrigerators will just turn off from 3am to 7am (by talking to the smart grid and seeing power is expensive). SOME of the necessary changes are as painless as that. Some are more intrusive - but there is nothing here that can't be done. -
archiesteel at 08:42 AM on 7 December 2010Renewable Baseload Energy
@actually thoughtfull: my apologies, I guess I wasn't clear enough in my original post. I was simply making the case that saying "I'm right" isn't in itself a rational argument - which is why I was suprised when you disagreed. I'm usually pretty clear in English, even though it's not my native tongue, but I still manage to be unintentionally ambiguous from time to time. Note that by "misinterpret" I do not mean "misrepresent". The latter implies malice, the former does not. Finally, I had you confused with someone else earlier, there was no prior minsinterpretation (as in misunderstanding). My bad, once more. Please accept my apologies, I'll try to be clearer in the future. -
archiesteel at 08:31 AM on 7 December 2010A Cloudy Outlook for Low Climate Sensitivity
@Eric: what Ricccardo said. Simply put, there is no evidence that your scenario is likely. I don't think you're looking at it skeptically enough, i.e. you seem ready to embrace a scenario which, based on the evidence we have, seems much more unlikely than the currently accepted science. I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. -
cynicus at 08:25 AM on 7 December 2010How to explain Milankovitch cycles to a hostile Congressman in 30 seconds
This is the same Rohrabacher that wants to lauch a crusade against science because scientists are in on the big world government conspiracy? Now, I know that this is America so that possibly sets another benchmark, but if he performed that loony act in e.g. Europe he would probably be laughed out the House. I have much respect for Alley answering in a good spirited and humorous way while being questioned by such a nutcase regarding such a serious problem. But I'll guess Rohrabacher's right about one thing though: "Wake up America (people like him are your leaders)"! -
Riccardo at 08:06 AM on 7 December 2010A Cloudy Outlook for Low Climate Sensitivity
Eric (skeptic) it's not that in principle the GCR-climate relation is absurd. The problems is that there has been no clear evidence of the effect, let alone the 100 Kyrs periodicity needed to explain, or even contribute to, the glacial cycles. As far as we can tell, GCR contribution is small, at best. -
Bob Guercio at 07:55 AM on 7 December 2010Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming
VeryTallGuy - 161 I went too fast with post 171. This is what I meant to say: I think that you are suggesting that I leave the phrase "Since power is energy per unit time" out of my writeup. Am I correct? If so, I'm tending to agree with you. Bob -
scaddenp at 07:53 AM on 7 December 2010We're heading into an ice age
Temperature proxies for tropics - isotope data from forams in sediment core for ocean temps. (Used everywhere). Stalactites from cave systems. Lake productivity from sediment core. All proxies have problems of one sort of other usually with both temperature and age calibration so need to understand proxies in terms of constraining possible models. As coral - killing coral is easy but the carbonate skeleton is preserved. And you assume wrong about how they work. The method is based on oxygen isotopes and Sr/Ca ratios. Use google scholar for detail. -
Bob Guercio at 07:53 AM on 7 December 2010Stratospheric Cooling and Tropospheric Warming
VeryTallGuy - 161 2) From your link "Since power is energy per unit time, the energy content of IR radiation can be indicated by its IR spectrum which is a graph of power density as a function of frequency." I'd suggest the unit time bit here is unnecessary and confusing - we are not looking at dynamics. The ordinate of the graph is "watts/meter square wavenumber". I think that you are suggesting that I leave the phrase "Since power is energy per unit time". Am I correct? If so, I'm tending to agree with you. Thanks, Bob -
David Horton at 07:47 AM on 7 December 2010A Cloudy Outlook for Low Climate Sensitivity
I read this "debate" with a strong sense of deja vu. It could stand for any thread on climate change on any blog anywhere in the last ten years. An accurate description and analysis of one of the many lines of science associated with global warming. All of which are dismissed, one at a time, or in various combinations by a denier. The denier wants to ignore the obvious link between the known effects of CO2 in the atmosphere; the massive increase in CO2 in the atmosphere over the last 150 years, and especially the last thirty or so, as a demonstrated consequence of burning fossil fuels; and the rapidly rising temperatures and associated ecological and geographic consequences in exactly the same period. Instead, ignoring all that, the denier has some pet theory that, by an incredible coincidence, just happens to produce exactly the same effects in precisely the same time period. I mean, it is just amazing that some other minor and hypothetical process could achieve that and give us the excuse to do nothing whatsoever about decreasing GHG emissions, isn't it? -
littlerobbergirl at 07:45 AM on 7 December 2010How to explain Milankovitch cycles to a hostile Congressman in 30 seconds
excellent. just what we need, scientists who can communicate. shame he isnt prettier (hmph...and shame it matters) but at least our dana is prettier than theirs... -
archiesteel at 07:23 AM on 7 December 2010How to explain Milankovitch cycles to a hostile Congressman in 30 seconds
@ClimateWacher: "Bad for ignoring the significance of the HCO." How did he ignore the significance of the HCO? Oh, right, he didn't. We know the North Hemisphere was probably a bit warmer in the HCO, however there is no evidence the entire world was - it falls within the margin of uncertainty, that old double-edged sword. :-) In any case, projected temperatures - even the more optimist scenarios - will go well above HCO temperatures. The fact temperatures are going near HCO levels at this time, while they should be well under according to natural cycles, supports AGW theory. If anything, professor Alley's responses were still too wordy (bald spot excepted). When the (very partial) congressmen started his nonsense about Mars experiencing the same climate change as we do, he should have simply said it isn't. When demagogues make statements which they can't prove, you can simply call them on it. This puts the burden of proof on them, and since they *can't* support that position (due to a lack of facts) they'll simply stop using it as an argument. Simple falsehood should be challenged simply, with the science to back it up if needed. This is why sites such as this one are so useful! :-) -
Eric (skeptic) at 07:15 AM on 7 December 2010A Cloudy Outlook for Low Climate Sensitivity
archiesteel, can you point to some analysis that dismisses combinations of factors? Each one was dismissed in isolation in Dana's old thread, but that doesn't mean they can't combine in ways that radically change the climate. When you say "wishful thinking" are you implying that my scenario is impossible? Or just very unlikely? -
cjshaker at 07:09 AM on 7 December 2010We're heading into an ice age
I am curious as to how we study the impact of the 100,000 year glacial cycles in the tropics, ie - what temperature proxy data do we use? The wiki on the temperature record offers some information on other proxy data. It appears that coral growth rates are used to estimate temperatures in tropical regions? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Temperature_record I assume that they are measuring coral growth rates based on calcium carbonate deposits, which will slow down as CO2 increases, and will slow down as the temperature changes, up or down. Even changes in salinity will affect their growth rate. Seems like it would be hard to get high quality temperature proxy data from coral growth rates. Given how fragile coral is, I'm amazed that they survive at all. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coral "Seaweed/Algae can destroy a coral reef. In the Caribbean and tropical Pacific, direct contact between ~40 to 70% of common seaweeds and coral cause bleaching and death to the coral via transfer of lipid–soluble metabolites.[26] Seaweed and algae proliferate given adequate nutrients and limited grazing by herbivores. Coral die if surrounding water temperature changes by more than a degree or two beyond their normal range or if water salinity drops." Chris Shaker -
michael sweet at 07:06 AM on 7 December 2010Renewable Baseload Energy
Scaddenp, I think your resource was useful, I read it to the end. I agree with you that it is very difficult to find unbiased data. My point to Quokka was that your source said that nuclear needed to run at high outputs to be ecomonic. Since your source is biased pronuclear I presume they are correct on this point. I think your reference helped the debate as you describe. -
scaddenp at 07:06 AM on 7 December 2010Renewable Baseload Energy
Providing spnning reserve for a nuclear plant of economic scale is common argument against nuclear in a small market like New Zealand. Nonetheless, my son's debating team owes this and the other solution thread, plus BNC, a big thank you for winning his high school inter-school debating competition taking the affirmative on "NZ should build nuclear power". -
SRJ at 06:51 AM on 7 December 2010A basic overview of Antarctic ice
Re: 104: Typo error, the second trend estimate is for extent not area -
SRJ at 06:48 AM on 7 December 2010A basic overview of Antarctic ice
# 103 Global sea ice is declining at a statistical significant rate. My results from fitting a linear trend to the data from NSIDC: Global sea ice area, linear trend: -0.0334 ± 0.0129 Global sea ice area, linear trend: -0.0367 ± 0.0112 Units are mio. square km pr year, the trend are given with AR1 corrected 95% confidence intervals. For more info check my post earlier in this thread -
archiesteel at 06:44 AM on 7 December 2010A Cloudy Outlook for Low Climate Sensitivity
@Eric: again, I see no compelling evidence that such mechanisms could overcome the current anthropogenic warming. It seems to me you're suffering from wishful thinking here, and are not evaluating the science in an impartial manner. "The control knob for the ice age changes is GCR" Actually, Milankovitch cycles are the main culprits for ice ages, not GCR. Sorry, but so far the evidence you've presented in favor of GCRs as a main driver of climate doesn't even come close to challenging the evidence against them.
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