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Comments 104701 to 104750:

  1. Keep those PJs on: a La Niña cannot erase decades of warming
    I thought I'd try see if I could find how the press were reporting this document. I couldn't find anything in the MSM but here's what I could find in some science news sites and others. EurekaAlert ScienceDaily PHYSORG IBT WeatherOnline eScienceNews All of them report the late 2010 cooling to La Nina, none of them assign any of the 2010 warmth to El Nino. Are you happy with this situation Ned?
  2. Keep those PJs on: a La Niña cannot erase decades of warming
    This could get very boring Ned but I re-read the GISS document and I still could not find any statement where they assign any of the warm anomaly in 2010 to the 2009/2010 EL Nino. As I said they are very quick to assign the late year cooling and possible cooler conditions next year to the developing La Nina. Please Ned quote the sentance where you think they do that, I can't find your bolded sentance in the doc. Ned I get that the 1997/1998 El Nino was stronger than the 2009/2010. I get that the impact in 1998 was greater than 2010, I'm not arguing the opposite. That doesn't take away from the fact that the record 2010 temperature are still in part due to the 2009/2010 El Nino. I still believe GISS don't acknowledge that overtly. I just have to take up your description of 2009/2010 El Nino as modest. Modest definition - "limited in extent" The NCAR data seems to show 18-19 El Nino events since 1950. The 2009/2010 El Nino is joint 4th on the basis of peak number. Modest seems an inaccurate definition for the 2009/2010 El Nino. Above average would be better. You see even you are trying to undervalue the influence of the El Nino on 2010's temperature with your choice of words. Ned I agree with you that to some extent this is a perception point. I will admit I'm super critical of things coming out of GISS, I hope though that always remains within the realms of reality. But this is important because we are often arguing on this website in the way the media and others mis-represent the science. I think the take away messages journistist will get from this document is 2010 is warm and 2011-2012 will be cooler because of La Nina, that is an incomplete story. I think you, me and GISS all know that the warm temperature of 2010 where influenced by the 2009/2010 El Nino, the question is why they didn't overtly state that, please provide the quote where you think they do.
  3. How significance tests are misused in climate science
    Re: macoles (11)
    "The travesty, of course, is that we cannot account for the number of pirates empirically measured via apprehension or by sinking of their crafts vs that predicted by Disney movies. Latest measurements of the briny deep suggest some may have fled to Davy Jones' Locker" says the study lead auteur Calypso Cousteau.
     Yo-ho, yo-ho, indeed. The Yo-ho-Yooper
  4. The science isn't settled
    There is a mildly interesting philosophical argument here. By observational evidence and using some basic laws of physics, there are mountains on the moon. That fact cannot be expressed as a probability. Our observations may be wrong along with some basic physics, but that possibility cannot be expressed as a probability. By laws of physics, CO2 causes warming, but it is not "near 100% certain" in any scientific sense but only as a figure of speech. It is an established fact that CO2 and increases in CO2 cause warming unless a lot of physics is wrong. The correctness of the physics cannot be expressed as a probability. There is not a "90% certainty" that manmade GHG is causing "most" of the observed warming. That number is a meaningless invention. There about as much support for the statement that there is a 60% probability that this post will be deleted because it is purely philosophical and philosophy is dangerously close to politics. It is far better to drop the fake probabilities and make statements about theories and supporting lines of evidence. The best evidence is empirical, e.g. http://www.skepticalscience.com/Empirically-observed-fingerprints-of-anthropogenic-global-warming.html Various of these observations and measurements may arguably have alternative explanations. But none of those measurements or counter-arguments have any kind of probability associated with them.
  5. How significance tests are misused in climate science
    Kudos for a fascinating post! Dan
  6. How significance tests are misused in climate science
    Daniel @2 You are fraudulently hiding the incline of the M19CPP (Mid 19th Century Pirate Period) in your graph! All you Pirate Change Alarmists cannot be trusted!
  7. Solving Global Warming - Not Easy, But Not Too Hard
    BP: Your arguments are getting wilder and wilder. Provide a peer reviewed link please. I find it very hard to believe that you seriously think CO2 could be in short supply anytime in the next 1000 years. Where will they get the power to fix all that carbon? Please also provide a link to a functional, full scale thorium reactor.
  8. Berényi Péter at 10:08 AM on 13 November 2010
    The science isn't settled
    #15 Tom Dayton at 01:02 AM on 13 November, 2010 of course Galileo's conclusion of mountains on the moon could be expressed probabilistically OK, give it a try. I'm listening.
  9. Berényi Péter at 10:04 AM on 13 November 2010
    Solving Global Warming - Not Easy, But Not Too Hard
    #125 michael sweet at 08:11 AM on 13 November, 2010 Consequences to plant life? CO2 in short supply? Are you joking? No, I am absolutely serious. Check this Nanotechnology Roadmap out for example, this is how future is manufactured.
  10. Roger A. Wehage at 09:15 AM on 13 November 2010
    Skeptical Science moving into solutions
    #25 Roger A. Wehage at 08:46 AM on 13 November, 2010 Green can happen, as witnessed in Greensburg, KS. Here is a link to the Greensburg, Kansas Recovery Planning website. This might be a good place to start for a few ideas.
  11. Keep those PJs on: a La Niña cannot erase decades of warming
    If you just detrend HadCRUT since 1900 and compare it to PDO+AMO you will see a very close correlation. Right, if you remove the long-term warming trend from CO2, you can then do a pretty good job of predicting the residuals based on a bunch of different oscillations. So?
  12. Roger A. Wehage at 08:46 AM on 13 November 2010
    Skeptical Science moving into solutions
    #24 Berényi Péter at 07:54 AM on 13 November, 2010 There is a name for this political agenda... This has nothing to do with politics; it's about spelling out detailed plans that the average Joe and communities can follow to start the climate change mitigation ball rolling. People and communities don't need more science lectures; they get it. What community leaders and activists need are realistic plans of action that can be adopted or tailored as needed to meet their specific requirements. Working directly with local community leaders and activists is what I mean by starting at the bottom. As "green" communities evolve, other communities will take notice and hopefully follow in their footsteps. Green can happen, as witnessed in Greensburg, KS. There are many websites devoted to Green Communities. I'm not saying that the current state of green community development will fully mitigate climate change, but it certainly may represent a first step. Without that first step, scientists may soon be studying the Odds of Cooking the Grandkids.
  13. Solving Global Warming - Not Easy, But Not Too Hard
    That link for energy ratios should have been: www.hydroquebec.com/sustainable-development/documentation/pdf/options_energetiques/rendement_investissement.pdf
  14. Solving Global Warming - Not Easy, But Not Too Hard
    I have found a more reliable analysis of coal fired electricity generation by the NREL: www.nrel.gov/docs/fy99osti/25119.pdf It uses real world analysis techniques. eg. it takes into account energy inputs to the system. They calculate a net energy ratio that is fractional (0.3), which basically means you get less energy out than you put in. They calculate an average external energy ratio of 5.0 over the power stations life cycle. eg. 5 times more energy out than was put in. This low figure is due to losses such as fuel inputs to get the coal to the power station. Some comparisons of energy ratios here: ww.hydroquebec.com/.../rendement_investissement.pdf Basically, despite coals apparent high energy density, it suffers a great deal from having to be dug up and burnt inefficiently.
  15. Keep those PJs on: a La Niña cannot erase decades of warming
    And why look only at MEI? Since the AMO was in the record highs in the beginning of the year. Combining the effect of these two we have anomalously warm year. @Ned: Well yes, there is a warming trend in the last 15 years. And that is just because nearly all of the warming in the last 30 years happened in a step in the end of 90's. Actually the step would have occurred in the end of 70's if El Chinchon and Mt Pinatubo didnt offset the warming followed from a huge stepwise warming induced by the PDO. And AMO also made a shift back then. If you just detrend HadCRUT since 1900 and compare it to PDO+AMO you will see a very close correlation. Most of the warming in the last 30 years is caused by those (around 60% and 40% might be anthropogenic) so actually there is no recent "acceleration", it is just 30-year weather phenomenoms. And we skeptics are being accused about mixing weather to climate, how ironic is that? Just look at DelSole et al (a recent study) for example, or Thompson et al. Ocean oscillations explain quite a bit from the 20th century warming (and cooling).
  16. Real experts don't know everything
    Norman, then please argue with him directly. On this blog, it sounds like you are arguing with the science which absolutely does not believe we are going to have a runaway greenhouse. (you'd notice scientists at Reaclimate explaining why not).
    Moderator Response: Indeed, this site addresses the argument Positive feedback means runaway warming.
  17. Solving Global Warming - Not Easy, But Not Too Hard
    BP: Consequences to plant life? CO2 in short supply? Are you joking? How am I supposed to reply when your entire response may be facetious. Where would the power to convert limestone to quicklime come from? Oil has already peaked. Coal is estimated to peak in between 25 and 100 years. Gas supply is much less than coal. Perhaps gas clathrates could be tapped but that is not currently economic. In any case, if you waiit another 100 years any fossil fuel will run out and need to be replaced. I am suprised you support solar after your previous posts. Can you provide a link to a working full scale thorium reactor?
  18. Berényi Péter at 07:54 AM on 13 November 2010
    Skeptical Science moving into solutions
    #23 Roger A. Wehage at 06:40 AM on 13 November, 2010 Trying to educate the upper echelon is not working, so the only recourse may be to start at the bottom. Bring in Climate Change Denial Psychologists to learn how to sway the masses. There is a name for this political agenda, but I am not going to stress it here due to comments policy.
  19. Berényi Péter at 07:33 AM on 13 November 2010
    Solving Global Warming - Not Easy, But Not Too Hard
    #123 michael sweet at 03:40 AM on 13 November, 2010 What do you suggest people will do in 200 years when all the oil, gas and coal have been used up? There is no way carbon based geo-fuels could be exhausted on such a short timescale. If they were, large scale conversion of CaCO3 (limestone) into carbon dioxide should be started, as atmospheric CO2 is expected to be in short supply by that time, with detrimental consequences to plant life. The byproduct, CaO (quicklime) by reacting with omnipresent H2O turns into Ca(OH)2 (slack lime). If it gets into the seas somehow, a dangerous ocean basification can occur (milk of lime is a moderately strong base with pH 12.3). Some more advanced geochemistry is clearly needed to neutralize the stuff. In 200 years carbon is supposed to become the default construction material for practically all purposes because of its unique chemical and mechanical properties. Airborne CO2 being the most obvious source (a convenient shortcut for transportation issues), shortage is a real danger indeed in absence of appropriate replenishment. The most likely energy supply is both solar (with photochemical energy capture/storage releasing O2 into the environment with electricity generation on demand in fuel cells using atmospheric O2) and nuclear breeder technology utilizing the thorium cycle.
  20. Roger A. Wehage at 06:40 AM on 13 November 2010
    Skeptical Science moving into solutions
    Trying to educate the upper echelon is not working, so the only recourse may be to start at the bottom. Bring in Climate Change Denial Psychologists to learn how to sway the masses.
  21. How significance tests are misused in climate science
    What physical evidence does global-warming have, other than ice-core samples?
    Moderator Response: This thread is narrowly focused on concepts related to assessing statistical significance.
     
    General discussion of broad categories of evidence for global warming should go in an appropriate thread, such as this or this.
     
    Also, please note that in a series of visits over the past month, you've left at least five versions of the same comment about ice cores, in five different threads. Most of them have now been deleted or redirected here.
     
    Please try to post your comments in the appropriate thread and then stick with them there, rather than spreading discussions across many different threads. This helps make the site more readable for everyone.
  22. Berényi Péter at 05:31 AM on 13 November 2010
    Climate cherry pickers: cooling oceans
    #18 Ken Lambert at 01:38 AM on 13 November, 2010 Dr Trenberth found a theoretical 'observed' 145E20 Joules/year energy imbalance (0.9 W/sq.m) For God's sake! There is no such a thing as "theoretical 'observed' energy imbalance". It is either theoretical or observed. Now, Trenberth 2009 is clear enough.
    1. The observed imbalance is 6.4 W/m2
    2. This observation is inconsistent width model calculations
    3. Therefore observed imbalance is crap, models must be correct
    "There is a TOA imbalance of 6.4 Wm-2 from CERES data and this is outside of the realm of current estimates of global imbalances (Willis et al. 2004; Hansen et al. 2005; Huang 2006) that are expected from observed increases in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The TOA energy imbalance can probably be most accurately determined from climate models and is estimated to be 0.85 ±0.15 W m-2 by Hansen et al. (2005) and is supported by estimated recent changes in ocean heat content (Willis et al. 2004; Hansen et al. 2005)." It is non sequitur at its finest. A 6.4 Wm-2 is of course impossible (it happily belongs to the "Had I had three legs it would not have gone unnoticed" category). But from the fact a particular kind of measurement (satellite measured imbalance at TOA) is unreliable, there is no legitimate way to conclude another estimate (quasi-theoretical inference using computational climate models) is correct. The best we can say is it's either correct or not. As it is also inconsistent with ARGO OHC measurements, it suggests ARGO is either crap or not. Trenberth is only willing to consider the former possibility, but the latter one (implying computational climate models are seriously flawed) is a very real possibility at the moment.
  23. How significance tests are misused in climate science
    Thank you Dr Ambaum, I'm sure to use this explication elsewhere. I noticed the fallacy between #2 and #3, but I thought power analysis was going to come into play as a patch (actually, I initially flinched at #3 because the scientist should be thinking that noise + effect is being observed). Typically when one fails to detect a 'significant' effect, one can't accept the null hypothesis but can do a power analysis to determine the strength of effect that he/she should have been able to detect. On the flip side, however, a frequentist wouldn't worry too much if he/she detected a 'significant' effect -- the problem with power only really occurs in one direction. Your post here is about a broader issue than I first thought, and you are saying that frequentist statistics are always(?) misleading relative to Bayesian methods. I'll have to look at this more carefully (I keep telling myself to learn the Bayesian approach, but I still haven't sat down and done it). I had thought that the main misuse of frequentist statistics was in post-hoc analyses of existing data from uncontrolled experiments. That was the other thing I thought you were getting at: that JOC authors were obtaining data, visualizing them, and then deciding to do frequentist tests (after conscious or sub-conscious pre-selection). That's obviously wrong, to me, and I know it happens in my field (biology). I didn't think planned application of frequentist stats in a controlled experimental design was problematic. Time to learn...
  24. How significance tests are misused in climate science
    Agreed, Andrew -- and hooray for the Peirce sighting. Semioticians rejoice.
  25. Solving Global Warming - Not Easy, But Not Too Hard
    RSVP: What do you suggest people will do in 200 years when all the oil, gas and coal have been used up? Or what part of "nonrenewable energy" do you not understand? Maybe they will all move back into caves and make stone tools. Or is it more likely they will have developed renewable energy sources? Since this change has to be done at some time, why don't we try it now instead of damaging the environment with the last dregs of fossil carbon. The exact time when fossil fuels will run out is hotly debated, but they will eventually run out. Then society will develop sustainable energy.
  26. How significance tests are misused in climate science
    I'm unsure why people are so quick to ascribe global warming to pirates, when clearly the opposite is more like, i.e. that global warming is causing a precipitous decline in the number of pirates. This only makes sense, as the increased heat will tend to make our young people lethargic, and so less likely to get up to go to pirate tryouts, and to attend piracy school. Also, paleoclimate data has shown (with statistical significance) that piracy changes lag temperature changes by several hundred years. At the same time, as someone whose brain hurts whenever I think about probabilities in any sense beyond my chances of finally winning the lottery, I must admit that I find statistics and statisticians as annoying as piracy and pirates... perhaps even more so. If only global warming had such a negative impact on statisticians! Alas, and alack, I fear that the opposite is the case. I'm far more cognizant of statisticians in this woefully warming world. I also have no doubt that statisticians keep Bayesian eye patches in their desk drawers, to be worn in complete secrecy in the privacy of their lairs, while performing their heinous acts of statismancy and probabalism. The line between pirate and statistician is, I fear, as blurry as the line between p(M|N) and p(N|M). Arg.
  27. Keep those PJs on: a La Niña cannot erase decades of warming
    HR, I think your original remarks about the GISS report were way off base, and I don't think your subsequent effort to retroactively salvage them is particularly justifiable. They wrote that at the end of a very hot summer which saw both the record-breaking 12-month high temperature and a series of high-publicity stories about the heat wave in Russia, etc. If GISS operated the way that many "skeptics" imagine, they could have easily issued a summary that did exactly what you initially assumed it did -- ascribe everything to AGW and not even mention the role of natural variability. Instead, they provided a summary in more or less neutral terms that discusses natural variability at very great length. IMHO the fact that their efforts were apparently not enough for you says much more about your biases than theirs. (Though I obviously am coming from a different point of view; it's possible that their summary seems more reasonable to me because I'm predisposed to agree with them.) HumanityRules continues: If the GISS document can say that the 1998 temperature was boosted by El Nino why can't it acknowledge that 2010 was also boosted. Instead it tries to focus on the cooling aspects of the developing La Nina. They point out correctly that 2010 was influenced by a moderate El Nino that then transitioned fairly rapidly to a La Nina. In contrast, 1997-1998 had an El Nino that was either the largest on record, or second largest (after 1983, depending on which index you follow). Look at the data in the NCAR paper you cited. This past year's ONI (index based on the Nino 3.4 region) peaked at 1.8, and was above 1.5 for a grand total of two months. In contrast, for 1997-1998 it peaked at 2.5 (the highest value in the 60-year record), and it was above 1.5 for eight months, not two. If you believe that El Nino has a significant impact on temperatures, then why can't you accept that a monster El Nino (like 1998) would have a much larger impact on temperatures than the comparatively modest El Nino of 2010? So, to me, it frankly looks like you're being rather unreasonable. GISS talked about El Nino appropriately, and appropriately noted that the most likely reason why 2010 may not break the all-time calendar year record is because the El Nino was relatively modest in magnitude and rapidly transitioned to La Nina. Seriously, how much more can you ask? It seems like you wouldn't be satisfied unless GISS came out and ascribed the entirety of 2010's warmth to natural cycles. Or perhaps you want them to pretend that the 2010 El Nino was as large as the 1998 one, even though it obviously wasn't?
  28. How significance tests are misused in climate science
    Actually there might be a tenuous link with pirates and warming. eg. I think it was the Royal Navy that eliminated a lot of piracy. But they had to chop a lot of trees down to do it, plus the age of ironclads and battleships (coal use) meant pirates needed to be more sophisticated with access to a better income stream to afford a steam boat with heavy guns. Also piracy became a state sanctioned aim during the world wars with submarines, but the motive wasn't to steal produce. Although maybe that was the Nazis big mistake. They should of stolen the convoys, rather than sinking them?
  29. How significance tests are misused in climate science
    Really, this is a very formalized demonstration of why syllogistic argumentation is not a conclusive or reliable means of establishing truth-values. I'm reminded that the great US philosopher Charles Sanders Peirce (19th C) whose father Benjamin Peirce was a pioneer in statistical theory (esp. outliers) himself, admonished his readers that any argument depending on syllogism was to be implicitly mistrusted. He claimed the better means of understanding is by examining the substantial implications and possibilities of relations between things exhaustively, instead of attempting to fit them into formal logic. Still good advice over a Century later!
  30. How significance tests are misused in climate science
    I recently saw an article in a journal that supported AGW but the numbers weren't significant at the p<0.05 level. So AGW isn't real because every supporting evidence needs to be above the 95% certainty level. Oh, wait...this isn't WUWT?
  31. How significance tests are misused in climate science
    Hoooray! We're saved. Daniel's chart 'proves' that global warming is caused by lack of pirates... but in the past several years piracy has been booming off the coast of Somalia! We should start seeing temperatures turn around now! :]
  32. How significance tests are misused in climate science
    Re: Alexandre (1) To illustrate your point: Of course, some will argue that the recent surge in piracy is the cause of the "perceived flattening of the global temperature rise". Sigh. In life and statistics, some will see only what they expect to see. The Yooper
  33. How significance tests are misused in climate science
    I was playing around with statistics a few weeks ago. It helps me understand Tamino :-) Then this claim below crossed my mind, just like Dr. Ambaum: In the meantime, we need to live with the fact that “statistically significant” results are not necessarily in any relevant sense significant. I think you could statistically correlate car sales and global warming, for instance, and it would mean nothing. It's the underlying physics AND the statistics that will give you the evidence - which is the case.
  34. Ice-Free Arctic
    Norman, let me ask you something. The stuff you are promoting suggests that the decline of Arctic sea ice has just been a 'natural cycle' which should end 'any time now' (actually about ten years ago). You've convinced yourself that the past nine years are 'flat' (for the record, they look more like 'straight down' to me) and thus that the inevitable ice growth of the natural cycle is right around the corner. If five years from now Arctic ice has grown considerably I'd be absolutely shocked and need to re-examine how the apparently overwhelming indications to the contrary could all have been so wrong. So here's the question... if in five years Arctic sea ice is instead sharply lower even than current levels will that be an indication to you that something is very wrong with what you have chosen to believe? Or will you just accept whatever the new 'skeptic' explanation is (my money is on, 'oh we expected the Arctic to melt out entirely all along... this is completely normal and really happens all the time') and go on disbelieving all evidence to the contrary?
  35. Climate cherry pickers: cooling oceans
    Humanity Rules #13, #16 Excellent comments HR. What the promoters of CO2GHG theory have to consider is that the total sum of the forcings is what counts. If S-B cooling and cloud albedo cooling are offsetting CO2GHG warming and WV feedbacks at such a scale that warming is flattening or being arrested - then the accumulation of energy in the biosphere must also be flattening. Dr Trenberth found a theoretical 'observed' 145E20 Joules/year energy imbalance (0.9 W/sq.m) with a 'residual' of 30-100E20 Joules/year unaccounted. ie Av 65E20 Joules/year out of 145E20 Joules/year is unaccounted. This is 80/145 or 0.5/0.4W/sq.m split. What must be explained is that better measurement by Argo since 2004 shows flattening increase (or no increase) in OHC at a period when CO2GHG warming and WV feedback are at their highest theoretical levels. If better measurement of OHC content converges on less OHC increase then other cooling factors must be at play - cloud albedo and S-B are prime candidates.
  36. Real experts don't know everything
    Norman #64: "Climate models predicted a warming Arctic and the current warming found in the region may seem to verify the model is accurately predicting what is going on (CO2 increase by man is heating the Arctic region and causing increased summer ice melting). However this arcticle points out that another forcing factor is better at explaining what is going on in the Arctic then the AGW theory." Chylek's claim of correlation between the AMO and Arctic sea ice decline, followed by the assumption that this supposed correlation equals causation, is (like AGW theory) a theoretically possible explanation. However, the claim that the issue ends there with two possible explanations is pure nonsense. We can gather data and test these ideas to see whether they hold up or not. If the AMO were responsible for Arctic sea ice decline then we should have seen a reversal to increasing Arctic sea ice some time around 2000. The AMO period isn't absolutely fixed so it could run over a few years, but we're now at ten and the decline of Arctic sea ice is still accelerating. In short, data contradicting this idea is accumulating. Every year the ice continues to decline is another year against it. Also, if this were just a case of oscillation within normal climate bounds the long term average should be flat... but it isn't. Ice volume now is lower than it was during the last AMO cycle. That indicates that we aren't just dealing with an oscillation that moves heat back and forth, but rather an increase in the total heat input. On the other hand when we go to check AGW theory against data we find that ocean temperatures world-wide are increasing, that some of this warmer water is flowing into the Arctic from the Pacific and contributing to melt, that LAND ice is also melting (AMO obviously isn't causing that), that we see changes in upwards and downwards radiation matching what AGW should cause, that the warming is seasonal (more pronounced in Winter) as it should be under AGW (and would not be if AMO were responsible), and a thousand other things which match up. So no... it isn't just two different ideas about what could be happening. It is one idea which fits the observed facts and one which does not.
  37. The science isn't settled
    BP, of course Galileo's conclusion of mountains on the moon could be expressed probabilistically. That particular case would be one in which most people would not bother using that terminology, because the probability was so high that such terms would be "downright silly," as I wrote. Contrast with early scientists' conclusions of the existence of canals on Mars, based on their telescopic observations.
  38. Keep those PJs on: a La Niña cannot erase decades of warming
    That last comment was extremely long winded, i'll summarize it. This NCAR page tabulates the ENSO index. Look at 1997/998 and 2009/2010. While the magnitude of the peaks are different the timing is pretty similar. If the GISS document can say that the 1998 temperature was boosted by El Nino why can't it acknowledge that 2010 was also boosted. Instead it tries to focus on the cooling aspects of the developing La Nina. That is bias because it doesn't wish to assign any of the anomoly to natural variation. Almost like an anti-Art Horn it throws in a couple of out-of-the-blue sentances about CO2 to show it's real intent. If you can accept that Art is agenda driven I don't understand why you can't see it in GISS.
  39. Keep those PJs on: a La Niña cannot erase decades of warming
    53.Ned Ned thanks for the heads up on the other thread, I don't read this website as religiously as I used to which means I don't bother so much to follow up on comments. You were right that I didn't bother reading the GISS article, I've become too cynical about what they put out, I guess I was making the comment on the strength of the GISS quotes John used in his article. But prompted by you I did read it. Unlike you I will quote the GISS article in all the places were they make direct reference to how ENSO has an affect on short term temperature trends.(sorry for the length) "2010 was a bit cooler than 2009 mainly because a moderate El Niño" "The low latitude temperature anomaly was less than in 1998, as the recent El Niño was much weaker than the one in 1998." "Regardless of how long the current La Niña extends, the next two or three seasonal-mean global and low latitude temperature anomalies are likely to be cooler" "The maps compare January-August temperature anomalies for 2010, 2005 (the warmest year in the GISS analysis), and 1998 (one of the warmest years in the GISS analysis, the temperature being boosted by the "El Niño of the century"). 2010 is clearly the warmest of these years for the first eight months." "However, the 4th section of Figure 4 shows that the monthly anomalies in 2010 have declined steadily over the past five months as the Pacific Ocean moved into the La Niña phase." "Given the dominant effect of El Niño-La Niña on short-term temperature change and the usual lag of a few months between the Nino index and its effect on global temperature, it is unlikely that 2011 will reach a new global record temperature." There are other reference to ENSO but I don't think they link them to specific descriptions of particular short term trends. Notice anything? Well it strikes me that most (if not all) of these comments are focused on explaining away cooler conditions in 2010 (2011??) by ENSO. The one that comes closest to talking about warming is misleading. The long one that starts "The warms compare...." acknowledges that an El Nino boosted the temperature in 1998, what it fails to mention is that the 2010 temperature was boosted by El Nino in a similar way. How could they make such an admission? I concede that when GISS have to explain a cooling phenomenon they are happy to invoke ENSO as an explanation. My problem really is when they come to describe warm or warming periods, such as the summer of 2010 they neglect to adequately assign any of that warming to the prevailing ENSO condition. I'll have a go at it myself. /Fig4 shows that while ENSO peaked in Jan2009/Dec2010 global temperatures continued to rise (due to the lag) until March 2010. Although temperatures have fallen since they have remained sufficiently high to record the 4th warmest summer on record./ If you want to add that this is all on the back of a multicentury warming trend you can do but it doesn't take away from the fact that when it comes to describing warm periods GISS suddenly forgets to mention ENSO or any other natural variability. I think that is because they are agenda driven. Fleshed out a bit more but I don't think too far off what I was trying to get at in the earlier post. I don't think GISS don't mention ENSO, I just think they use it selectively. If we get headlines around 2010 being one of the hottest years on record I feel certain they won't be attributing any of that heat to the lingering affect of the 2009/2010 El Nino because they certainly aren't in the present document. Let me know if you think I'm off the mark here. (BTW I'm a man: old, white, male, Western, bigot, heavily invested in oil stocks as if you didn't already know [sarc off])
  40. Solving Global Warming - Not Easy, But Not Too Hard
    Talk about lack of engineering imagination! Took my mum out today for her weekly shopping trip, got to talking about those wonderful days on the farm (1950ish) with no power supply. We had kerosene lamps in the house and a generator to run the dairy, but some neighbours used "windlights". A simple windmill like you see on lots of Oz farms for managing water, only these were run specifically to charge batteries for home lighting. If only! That technology could easily have been developed further to run farms and small communities. Instead all these nifty engineering tricks were abandoned when the 'lectric arrived in town and eventually all the farms along the transmission lines paid to be connected.
  41. Real experts don't know everything
    Norman wrote : "There is a person named Leland Palmer on differnt blogs that works to convince everyone that we will have a "runaway" greenhouse like what is speculated happened to Venus and all life will become extinct. Not getting that from any official document." Then why not stick to "official document(s)" ? Anyone, on any blog, can say or write anything - do you believe them all ? Why believe in anything that is contained in any blog (to do with AGW) unless it's backed up by evidence or peer-reviewed papers, etc ? And that means more than one paper usually - many so-called skeptics try to claim that one particular paper (or one particular person) is the right one, and try to ignore all the others that state otherwise. Unless, of course, you WANT to believe what you are reading on certain other blogs...
  42. Real experts don't know everything
    #85 scaddenp There is a person named Leland Palmer on differnt blogs that works to convince everyone that we will have a "runaway" greenhouse like what is speculated happened to Venus and all life will become extinct. Not getting that from any official document.
  43. Climate cherry pickers: cooling oceans
    Sorry for the interruption, but ... HumanityRules, two days ago you made some very critical remarks about GISS's report 2010 - How Warm Was This Summer?. You claimed that the report failed to include caveats about the role of El Nino in contributing to temperature records, and you suggested that this was a deliberate omission by GISS: Obviously they don't because any description of natural variability would confuse the message. You then observed that whether 2010 breaks a calendar-year record or not depends on how rapidly La Nina develops, and that if it does break a record that would be partially due to the effects of El Nino in the first half of the year. As I then replied in that thread, the GISS report you cite so dismissively actually discusses natural climate variability, the ENSO cycle, and its influence on annual temperature records in great detail. In what is only a 16-paragraph report, they refer to ENSO around a dozen times. And they clearly state that (a) whether 2010 breaks the record will depend on how rapidly La Nina develops, and (b) if 2010 does break the record it will be partially (but not entirely) due to the lingering effect of El Nino. In other words, GISS wrote exactly what you criticized them for not writing. Your comments seem so wildly off-base that I rather suspect that you didn't actually read the report before dismissing it. My guess is that you have a pre-existing assumption that GISS are a bunch of alarmists, and so obviously any report they write about a record-warm summer would be nothing but AGW hype. Or perhaps you were just echoing things you've read at "skeptical" sites elsewhere? In any case, it's off topic for this thread, and I'm sorry for the interruption, but I for one would appreciate some explanation from HumanityRules for her/his inexplicable remarks over on the original thread.
  44. Solving Global Warming - Not Easy, But Not Too Hard
    RSVP: "However, I think as a thought experiment, they can save themselves all the trouble, as it doesnt take a whole lot to realize this likely an impossible pipe dream (unfortunately for mankind)." What you use today was once a dream. Electricity was once an impossible pipe dream. But somehow, in the past we had visionary people that ignored luddites that said it was an impossible pipe dream. There is a lot of red herrings, a lack of engineering imagination, strawmen and goodness knows what else being dished out here.
  45. Solving Global Warming - Not Easy, But Not Too Hard
    Berényi Péter: "I am with you in principle. And there is nothing to stop those who back solar from setting up a pilot plant of this kind to demonstrate how it can actually jump start itself. You would have to give them some slack (I suppose) and provide some external energy source to prime the system. At least the first year." What on earth are you talking about?? There isn't a single energy system that can operate on its own. A coal fired power station is dependent on energy from external sources and is dependent on infrastructures that have developed for over hundred years. You haven't got a clue. That's the problem with idealism and why thorough research is required, some of which has been done already, but Berényi ignores. Please do the same insane experiment with coal, gas, nuclear etc. You need to prove that a coal fired power station doesn't depend on oil etc. and while you are at it, you would have to design vehicles and trains from scratch and develop the rail system from scratch based on first principles. The fact is, all current technology is interdependent, you move to new technologies gradually over many decades.
  46. Berényi Péter at 21:18 PM on 12 November 2010
    The science isn't settled
    #12 Tom Dayton at 15:20 PM on 12 November, 2010 All sciences yield probabilistic statements. "Facts" simply have very high probabilities of being true--so high that it is downright silly to constantly refer to them as "maybes." That's not so. Some scientific statements are simply true, with no reference to probability whatsoever. For example in 1610 Galileo has discovered (using his improved telescope) that the surface of the Moon was not smooth, but had mountains and valleys on it. This statement can not be translated as "the surface of Moon being smooth has zero (or extremely low) probability", because there is no reasonable definition of a sample space with a probability measure on it that would fit the situation. The "translation" simply does not make sense. Galileo's proposition is either true or false. It turned out to be true, verified by the observed behavior of shadows on the lunar surface (which also made possible to measure the height of those mountains).
  47. Solving Global Warming - Not Easy, But Not Too Hard
    Berényi Péter #112 "In this respect the distributed information processing system called free market is much more efficient than any scientific study could possibly be." I am with you in principle. And there is nothing to stop those who back solar from setting up a pilot plant of this kind to demonstrate how it can actually jump start itself. You would have to give them some slack (I suppose) and provide some external energy source to prime the system. At least the first year. But what they would have to prove (in an ideal place like Phoenix that has Sun, experienced engineers, silicon etc) is that you could produce chips using solar such that if allowed to continue, you would never need to go back to any other power source. Its like the difference between "knowing" you can go to the Moon, and actually doing it. However, I think as a thought experiment, they can save themselves all the trouble, as it doesnt take a whole lot to realize this likely an impossible pipe dream (unfortunately for mankind).
  48. Solving Global Warming - Not Easy, But Not Too Hard
    clonmac: "I don't understand why there is a debate about the land use differences between a solar plant and a coal plant. It makes no sense to me." The only valid issue is the damage to the environment, climate change and biodiversity. The misleading and over simplified analysis by Berényi is not relevant.
  49. Solving Global Warming - Not Easy, But Not Too Hard
    Berényi Péter: "If it takes more energy to put solar panels in operation than they are able to produce in their lifetime, power sold would not cover production costs," Prices have nothing to do with energy payback. You can't mix up economics with engineering and science analysis, which you consistently do here to mislead. 'Energy Payback Ratios' are an already well established analysis technique, so it isn't a question of 'if'. All current technologies, including solar PV and others, produce more energy in their life times than used to produce, install, maintain and decommission them. As I have already stated there is plenty of research and 'Energy Payback Ratios' are a well established way of assessing and comparing technologies.
  50. Solving Global Warming - Not Easy, But Not Too Hard
    Berényi Péter: "The point is no such study is needed. Just a free market with no subsidies whatsoever and proper regulations (to ensure for example no high tech poison is left behind)." Wrong. Regulations are why you need a study. eg. Regulations are needed to account for the non-economic factors. Alternatively you have to include the 'non-economic' factors into economics, that then has an impact on business practice and prices.

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