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Albatross at 04:57 AM on 2 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
Muoncounter @29, Thanks for that link. What is interesting is that they were investigating differences between different methodologies and data sets back in 2007 (the article is dated August 2007). This is exactly how science works. I also found this statement concerning: "Abdalati says he is convinced that the Greenland Ice Sheet will continue to shrink at a significant and, perhaps, accelerating rate. Already he and his colleagues have new studies underway in which they are investigating the sensitivity of the ice sheet to rising temperatures and the specific mechanisms by which the ice sheet responds to increased warmth." [August 2007]. Well look what has happened just three years after he said that.... Do I want to read what Abdalati said above? No, of course not, but I'm not going to waste yet more time by going into denial as some in this thread are doing? Again, No. -
Albatross at 04:44 AM on 2 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
John Kehr @26, Can you please refrain from suggesting nefarious goings on concerning these Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) data? Thanks. It baffles me that we can have these data/events staring us in the face and yet some people choose to think of creative ways of dismissing or questioning these troubling revelations. First, the studies using GRACE (e.g., Velicogna 2009), data do apply isostatic adjustments to the data--"GIA [Glacial Isostatic Adjustment] signal is removed from the GRACE data using independent models as described by Velicogna and Wahr [2006a, 2006b]." Second, as far as I can tell, IF Wu et al's (2010) proposed GIAs are correct (and there are reasons to believe that that they not be appropriate), they affect only the absolute values, not the trend. Regardless, data from multiple, independent groups and measurement platforms do point towards an accelerating rate of ice loss (e.g., Jiang et al. 2010). Third, surely you can do better than arguing the equivalent of "well the climate is always changing so this is nothing unusual". Climate scientists and glaciologists of course know very well that ice sheets are dynamic, complex systems which respond to multiple drivers, and consequently that they have grown and receded in the past. What is happening now with not only the GIS, but WAIS, Arctic sea ice, and other terrestrial glaciers/ice sheets and other metrics concerns people who study the cryosphere for a living, and so it should also concern reasonable and prudent people. Polyak et al. (2010) are concerned and not what is happening now with Arctic sea ice and note that what is happening can not be attributed to natural variability...do you really think that you know better than they do? This is still relatively early days in the AGW story, so do not make the mistake of equating what is happening now to what the situation will be decades or centuries form now-- the GIS (and WAIS) will, in all likelihood, look very much different by then. You can choose to ignore this image, but do so at the peril of future generations:Figure GL3. Difference (days) in summer 2010 melt duration compared to 1979-2007 mean, after Mote (2007). The 2400 m elevation contour is included to illustrate higher elevations of melting over the southern ice sheet. [Along the southwestern ice sheet, the number of melting days in August has increased by 24 days over the past 30 years-- NOAA]
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muoncounter at 04:03 AM on 2 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
#26: "So which is correct?" Is that the best question to ask? Here is the key message: “While differences in these studies still exist,” Abdalati concludes, “collectively, they very convincingly paint a picture of the Greenland Ice Sheet as having been close to balance in the 1990s, contributing a small amount to sea level, but becoming significantly out of balance and losing a substantial amount of ice to the sea in the last several years.” -
Rob Honeycutt at 03:27 AM on 2 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
TIS... I'd also say that you're jumping the gun a bit to call it "disingenuous." If the data had been available for 5 years and newer data were fully incorporated and the old data were being presented, THAT would be disingenuous. (BTW, this is a technique continually applied to the "hockey stick" issue.) If you look, Wu 2010 states in the abstract that "We conclude that a significant revision of the present estimates of glacial isostatic adjustments and land–ocean water exchange is required." That is from a paper published just 9 weeks ago, about the same time the GRACE data above is published. I'm confident everyone is reviewing Wu's findings. You have to give science just a little bit of time to do it's work. As you very well know, these issues are highly complex and take a lot of time to research in full detail. -
Rob Honeycutt at 03:16 AM on 2 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
TIS... Your second link is broken. The last info I got regarding when the Arctic was last ice free was this video lecture by Professor David Barber where he states that there is currently debate over whether the last time the Arctic was ice free was 1 million years ago or 14 million years ago. -
The Inconvenient Skeptic at 02:45 AM on 2 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
Another study from September showed that the isostatic adjustment from the last glacial period is causing the ice loss to be overstated by about double. The recent article gives estimates of 104 +/- 23 Gt/yr for Greenland and in West Antarctica the loss is 62+/- 32 Gt/yr. So which is correct? The studies that give the higher results don't take the adjustment into account. Stating that the loss is 200+ Gt/yr as fact when there are “published” articles that give results that are half as much is a bit disingenuous. When taken into account with the other recent article that indicates that the Arctic was ice free during the summer in the early Holocene which would also indicate that the ice loss was even greater during that period than the current period. There is a good reason to be skeptical about the significance of the current behavior. John Kehr The Inconvenient Skeptic -
Stephen Baines at 02:18 AM on 2 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
I don't think it's shameful to suggest AGW played a role in last winter. However, you can see how the effect of AGW on climate can be confusing to the lay person. Loss of sea-ice = equals changing wind patterns = cold winter in Europe BUT not so cold as similar conditions (extreme negative NAO) would have produced in past because AGW has shifted the baseline. Doesn't exactly trip off the tongue. Then there is the issue of what a bad winter is, and that definitition changed depending on where you were. It was colder than usual in the SE US last year, but not here in the NE US. Still it was considered a "bad" winter because of the amount of snow we had up here. That was a consequence of the extreme negative NAO combined with an ongoing El Nino that feeds moisture into the SE US. AGW could have affected the extent of the AO/NAO (through Arctic Sea ice) and the water vapor available for precip. Back to Greenland. Are those focal areas of ice loss related to particular sealevel exit points for the inland icesheet? -
archiesteel at 00:59 AM on 2 November 2010What should we do about climate change?
@Peter Lang: "."In Toronto, Canada (an probably other places) property values are far higher near the NPPs than near the coal fired power stations." The fact Peter Lang is *still* comparing nuclear to coal notwithstanding, there are no coal power plants left near Toronto. Now, I wonder if Peter Lang will *ever* say whether he accepts AGW theory or not. The fact he won't tends to lend credence to the theory that he's not speaking on his personal behalf. -
archiesteel at 00:53 AM on 2 November 2010What should we do about climate change?
@quokka: I do not dispute nuclear is part of the solution. I'm opposed to people who say renewables are not. -
CBDunkerson at 00:29 AM on 2 November 2010What should we do about climate change?
The continuing fictional works of Peter Lang; "1. you say nuclear is unpopular so we shouldn't advocate it." Fiction. I did NOT say that. Advocate all you like. You (well, not YOU, but nuclear advocates in general) may eventually change enough peoples' minds for nuclear to become 'near universal'. However, it seems more likely renewable energy will have become widespread before that change could take place. "2. You believe GHG emissions are a mjor risk, yet you preclude tackling them with the only viable technology available to make serious cuts" Again, fiction. Nuclear as a sole (or nearly so) power source is NOT viable at this time. Public support for it does not exist. Ergo, not viable. Also, 100% nuclear is NOT the only option (which is good since it isn't possible). Arguments can be made that 100% solar or 100% wind, both requiring significant grid and power storage improvements, could be made to work. However, the most logical course is a mix of energy sources... wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, nuclear, et cetera. Each where they are most accepted and practical. "5. You say: "just awareness of what it would do to property values."In Toronto, Canada (an probably other places) property values are far higher near the NPPs than near the coal fired power stations. These sorts of statements are made from ignoraance." Yes, because all the world is Toronto and built next to coal plants. Everyone knows that people the world over JUMP at the chance to live next to nuclear power plants. Seriously, truth time now... you're really an ANTI-nuclear campaigner out to drive people away from the technology by promoting totally irrational arguments in favor of it. Right? "'The simple fact' is that the other options, like renewable energy and energy efficency, have been looked at for at least 20 years and they can make no significant impact on cutting GHG emisisons. Believing that somehow a mircale will happen and renewables will suddenly become viable is living in a fantasy world." Renewables are already viable. There are several communities around the world which now generate more renewable power than they need. Germany is an example of an entire country which is well on its way to that situation (despite having relatively poor renewable energy resources). The US state of Hawaii is starting to switch over to renewables because it is so blessed with all manner of renewable energy sources that it can easily supply its power needs at costs much lower than the current generation of power by burning oil. This is the actual world. Already happening. Saying that what has already happened cannot happen... THAT is living in a fantasy world. -
muoncounter at 00:28 AM on 2 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
#23: "you might just understand why '2 + 2 may equal 4' is not a "particularly shameful" link." Reminds me of an old oil field joke, which answers the question 'how much is 2+2?' with 'what would you like it to be?' Here's some perspective on winter 2010: The winter of 2009/2010 was characterized by record persistence of the negative phase of the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which caused several severe cold spells over Northern and Western Europe. This somehow unusual winter with respect to the most recent ones arose concurrently with public debate on climate change ... We show however that the cold European temperature anomaly of winter 2010 was (i) not extreme relative to winters of the past six decades ... The winter 2010 thus provides a consistent picture of a regional cold event mitigated by long-term climate warming. Isn't it shameful how some people have their own mathiness? -
CBDunkerson at 00:11 AM on 2 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
HR #20: "The attempted link between AGW and the severe winter in Europe and the US last year seems particularly shameful." Ummm... the 'severe' winter in Europe and the US last year was unquestionably due to cold winds out of the Arctic. Arctic winds do not normally reach that far South. Ergo, the cold winter was either just a random event with no particular long term significance OR evidence of a change in Arctic wind patterns. Guess what has been predicted to change Arctic wind patterns? If you said 'global warming' you might just understand why '2 + 2 may equal 4' is not a "particularly shameful" link. -
Peter Lang at 00:10 AM on 2 November 2010What should we do about climate change?
CBDunkerson, I think your line of arguments is illogical on several counts. 1. you say nuclear is unpopular so we shouldn't advocate it. But if we dont advocate and educate it will remain unpopular. 2. You believe GHG emissions are a mjor risk, yet you preclude tackling them with the only viable technology available to make serious cuts 3. You say some parts of the world are not prepared to accept nuclear so we shouldn't argue for it. Yet many people weren't preared to accept dangerous AGW theory, yet that disn't stop believers arguing for it. So why do argue to not argue for the practical solution? 4. You say "Thus, to me, nuclear is not currently a viable option because people aren't ready to allow it to be." Where it is implemented it is accepted, supported. So it is a mattrer of education. 5. You say: "just awareness of what it would do to property values."In Toronto, Canada (an probably other places) property values are far higher near the NPPs than near the coal fired power stations. These sorts of statements are made from ignoraance. 6. You say: "That being the case we need to look at other options rather than dwelling in a fantasy world." 'The simple fact' is that the other options, like renewable energy and energy efficency, have been looked at for at least 20 years and they can make no significant impact on cutting GHG emisisons. Believing that somehow a mircale will happen and renewables will suddenly become viable is living in a fantasy world. -
mspelto at 23:37 PM on 1 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
Icesat which is a separate data set is showing a loss of a similar magnitude to the GRACE data set, that is indicating the result is robust. From a submitted paper Sørensen et al (2010) "We find an annual mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet of 210 ± 21 Gt yr−1 in the period from October 2003 to March 2008. This result is in good agreement with other studies of the Greenland ice sheet mass balance, based on different remote sensing techniques". This year for northwestern Greenland the snowline's were quite high from early in the melt season. This is one of the factors that raised the vulnerability of the Petermann Glacier. Going forward it will raise the vulnerability of Ryder Glacier and others. -
Harald Korneliussen at 23:34 PM on 1 November 2010Skeptical Science Firefox Add-on: Send and receive climate info while you browse
I noticed that the front page already had several annotations with arguments that haven't got a reply yet (but of course, with closely related arguments that have). Wasn't there a big list of arguments somewhere, including all the ones that don't have replies here as well as those which do? I can't seem to find it any longer.Moderator Response: Probably you are thinking of the Links page. Look in the horizontal blue bar at the top of this page. "Links" is near the right end. -
CBDunkerson at 22:59 PM on 1 November 2010What should we do about climate change?
The biggest problem with nuclear is actually not the risk, but rather the perception of risk. The simple fact is that a large percentage of people are afraid of it. Even many of those who support it in theory are strongly against having it nearby due to lingering radiation concerns or just awareness of what it would do to property values. The simple fact is that many parts of the world are not ready to accept large scale nuclear power yet. That's reality. Thus, to me, nuclear is not currently a viable option because people aren't ready to allow it to be. That being the case we need to look at other options rather than dwelling in a fantasy world. It's like the argument that abstinence is 100% effective against teen pregnancy... it may be true on paper, but it isn't grounded in reality because there is no way you can prevent teenagers from having sex. Ditto the extremes of 'free market' economic theory... you can just let corporations do what they want with no regulation because they'll avoid any impropriety because it would impact their bottom line. Which inevitably leads to mortgage derivatives, Enron, S&L, et cetera... yet people still keep drinking the cool-aid. Human behavior needs to be taken into account to develop reality based solutions. And right now human behavior isn't supportive of switching over to a nuclear powered world. -
Rob Painting at 22:54 PM on 1 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
Murray et al 2010 I've only access to the abstract, but it suggests icesheet-ocean interactions are the primary control on the rate of ice discharge in SE Greenland glaciers. Hardly a startling revelation. -
HumanityRules at 22:39 PM on 1 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
16.Lazarus I think you're referring to the 2010 paper by Wu et al in Nature Geoscience. Simultaneous estimation of global present-day water transport and glacial isostatic adjustment 15 AUGUST 2010 | DOI: 10.1038/NGEO938 It's not referred to in the Arctic Report Card. Neither is Murray et al 2010 Ocean regulation hypothesis for glacier dynamics in southeast Greenland and implications for ice sheet mass changes JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 115, F03026, doi:10.1029/2009JF001522, which suggest alternative explanations for de-glaciation in SE Greenland. John is it possible that the information is "mostly disturbing" and David Horton finds things terrifying because this report card is biassed in presenting such data? The attempted link between AGW and the severe winter in Europe and the US last year seems particularly shameful. -
Rob Painting at 22:38 PM on 1 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
Lazarus @ 16 - Wu 2010 employ a novel technique, using (sparse) GPS data to calculate for glacio-isostatic uplift. No doubt it will take time for the scientific community to ascertain it's value/accuracy, but it is at odds with estimates using other methods. Going out on a limb here, Wahr and Velicogna, were authors of earlier GRACE studies using the GIA model estimates, so I doubt they've employed WU's methods. There is an upcoming post on the topic. -
CBDunkerson at 22:31 PM on 1 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
gpwayne #11: "Focussing on such a short period seems to compound the problem, and does rather contradict our oft-repeated claim that only trends are valid, not short term data." The length of time needed to determine a valid trend increases as the amount of 'noise' in the data does. If you look at the Mauna Loa CO2 data you've got a small annual cycle and a very smooth upward trend which can be clearly seen from just a few years' data (though we happen to have decades of confirmation). Temperature records on the other hand bounce all over the place and thus require much longer periods to determine a trend. The Greenland mass loss data seems to be somewhere in the middle... there is some noise, but note that every annual peak and every annual low is lower than the previous year. The 'noise' isn't great enough to ever 'break' the downward trend... just providing fluctuations around it. That is, if anything, a much clearer picture than we get from the noisier data sets... even when we have more data for them. -
Ed Davies at 21:30 PM on 1 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
gpwayne: "I'm sure this graph would be less ambiguous - and more compelling - if the average was calculated like all trends, from a 30 year period." Isn't that a bit tricky if you only have 8 years of data? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_Recovery_and_Climate_Experiment Launch date: March 17, 2002 To me what's compelling about this graph is how clean the data is: how well it follows the quadratic fit with the annual variation. The red line is a quadratic fit, isn't it? What period was it fitted over? -
Lazarus at 20:50 PM on 1 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
Wasn't there a problem with GRACE and rebound giving inaccurate readings? Has this been sorted and accounted for in this Report card? -
J Bowers at 20:36 PM on 1 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
Climate Sanity has a post that should help visualise what it probably all means in terms of volume and sea levels. Conversion factors for ice and water mass and volume -
Glenn Tamblyn at 18:49 PM on 1 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
beam me up scotty. Since Jim Kirk and the Enterprise aren't streaking across the galaxy on a resue mission - and lets face it, there is only so much you can do by reconfiguring the deflector dish AGAIN. So, yep. Its up to us. So: "Ok, tell us what I must do" Convince Others. Of the reality, Severity and above all the Urgency. Individually we can do nothing, only when we all act together. If you were discussing what you could do to solve World Poverty the answer is that you individually could. For one person. You could lift another person out of poverty. Just not everyone. But your individual actions alone could solve the problem for another person. With AGW, you can't solve the problem for one person. Either it is solved for everyone, or it is not solved. So individual action counts for little when it is only a few individuals. So the most useful thing anyone can do is be part of arguing the case. The case for the mobilisation of Humanity against the greatest crisi in Human History. This may truely be a situation where the Pen IS mightier than the Sword. Or the Dollar, Or the Solar Panel on your roof. This is about mobilising Humanity. Everything else is a well intentioned sideshow. -
quokka at 18:25 PM on 1 November 2010What should we do about climate change?
#233 archiesteel "Oh, and I'm not going to grace Brave New Climate with hits". That's your loss really. RealClimate (Gavin Schmidt, Michael Mann et al) have no problem linking to BNC. It's run by Prof Barry Brook - Director of Climate Science, University of Adelaide. Sites such as SkepticalScience and RealClimate have done an absolutely invaluable service in increasing public understanding of climate and in particular SkepticalScience is the go to place for dealing with denialist nonsense that is forever mutating into new forms. But unfortunately, while there is a growing public knowledge of climate, confusion abounds around issues of energy and climate and the economics and engineering thereof. This reflects itself in public debate. How can policy makers get it right when those most concerned about the urgency of GHG mitigation themselves are all over the place? Barry Brook's aim is to promote critical thinking about sustainable energy. BTW, the latest piece on BNC is by animal liberationist Geoff Russell about the obstacles posed for reforestation by increasing meat consumption world wide. Geoff also supports nuclear power. How's that for confronting a few stereotypes? -
beam me up scotty at 18:15 PM on 1 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
Where are the heros that will save the world? Who? Us? Ok, tell us what I must do! -
Bern at 18:14 PM on 1 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
@gpwayne: I don't expect to see all that many outcomes of AGW myself - probably another 60-odd years to go for me, barring any major medical advances (although I have a friend who used said he "fully expects lifespans to be extended into the centuries range soon", and decided to go on a major health & fitness program to make sure he was around to see it!). That aside, though, if things proceed as the best science suggests, then by 2060 we'll be seeing some pretty amazing things happening. What my baby daughter will get to see in her lifetime will, of course, be a different question entirely! Going by the info in this and other posts, Greenland will be melting / shedding ice for a *long* time to come. But with a few more decades of data, it might become *very* difficult to deny it's happening. We might also see some more dramatic happenings in West Antarctica, and who knows what sort of weather we'll have. Interesting times ahead... -
gpwayne at 17:50 PM on 1 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
On the subject of the anomaly zero point, surely the problem occurs because the average is calculated from such a short period? I'm sure this graph would be less ambiguous - and more compelling - if the average was calculated like all trends, from a 30 year period. Focussing on such a short period seems to compound the problem, and does rather contradict our oft-repeated claim that only trends are valid, not short term data. Still bloody terrifying though. There are not many reasons to be glad I'm nearly 60, but contemplating the outcomes of AGW I'm not going to see (because they will be beyond my personal 'event horizon') is actually one of them! -
Paul Magnus at 16:28 PM on 1 November 2010Hockey stick or hockey league?
great post! -
archiesteel at 15:52 PM on 1 November 2010What should we do about climate change?
By the way, I will not respond directly to you until you say whether or not you agree with AGW theory. I'm starting you're only trying to recuperate the concern people have with CO2 to make your industry more appealing. -
archiesteel at 15:51 PM on 1 November 2010What should we do about climate change?
@Peter Lang: did I say it was the solution to our energy supply? No, I didn't. Why should I trust anything you say when you put words in people's mouth? As for being "so silly it's not worth discussing it," that's just a cop-out and you know it. The fact is that, right now, Germany's power grid is being put under stress by such independent producers. Is this sufficient for our energy needs? Of course not. We need a mixed solution: large-scale and decentralized solar/wind power production, hydro-electrical *and* nuclear. Also, small-scale independent producers can benefit from this - why would you prevent the little guy from doing his part *and* benefiting from it at the same time? Because it means less money for Big Nuclear? It's quite clear you have a pro-nuclear agenda. You've made that abundantly clear through your repetitively arrogant posts. You've also proved to all of us here that you're a *terrible* salesman for nuclear. Oh, and I'm not going to grace Brave New Climate with hits. I would have, but you've completely turned me off by using them as your primary source over and over again. As I said, you make a very poor spokesperson for nuclear. I truly hope you're not an industry shill, because if you are someone is not getting his/her money's worth. "It is impossible to explain to people with strong beliefs" I don't have strong beliefs. In fact, as I've repeatedly stated, I'm in favor of Nuclear being part of a mixed solution. That, however, does not fit into your "only nuclear" propaganda, and so you are now trying to discredit me and ridicule my position. -
David Horton at 15:46 PM on 1 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
I presume the reason for using the average as the base level is that if you just compute change from the starting year it could, and would, be argued, that the first year just happened to be an abnormally high (in this case) year. However given the smooth shape of this anomaly graph it is clear that there was nothing abnormal about 2002, as it turned out, and that therefore you could switch to making it the zero level. Or am I misunderstanding something statistical? -
Peter Lang at 15:24 PM on 1 November 2010What should we do about climate change?
archiesteel, The reason I don't bother answering your question about private individuals selling power to the grid and thinking that that is a solution to our energy supply problems is because it is so silly it is not worth trying to discuss it. If you want to know why, go to Brave New Climate and find out. Or have a go at crunching the numbers yourself. It is impossible to explain to people with strong beliefs but no understanding of any of the fundamentsla od energy generation, transmission, distribution, costs, financing and importantly no sense of proportion. -
Stephen Baines at 15:05 PM on 1 November 2010Hockey stick or hockey league?
It may help if Boofy realizes that many of the predicted patterns of climate change resulting from antorpogenic CO2 were made well before they were observed, or looked for. That's what scaddenp means when he refers to "validation" of theory. The consistency with which theoretical predictions have been borne out by observation is what underlies the current scientific consensus. It's not based on a simple appeal to correlation. All that said, a strong correlation can be very useful scientifically. -
Chris G at 15:02 PM on 1 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
Seconding Doug H's comment; the canary is dying and we're still digging. Related material: Khan, S. A., J. Wahr, M. Bevis, I. Velicogna, and E. Kendrick (2010), Spread of ice mass loss into northwest Greenland observed by GRACE and GPS, Geophys. Res. Lett., 37, L06501, doi:10.1029/2010GL042460. http://www.agu.org/journals/ABS/2010/2010GL042460.shtml (pay wall) http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/03/100323161819.htm I know, clunky link usage, but in this case the URL identifies the source and that seems significant to me in this case. -
archiesteel at 14:50 PM on 1 November 2010What should we do about climate change?
@gallopingcamel: "I am a sucker for all kinds of de-centralized energy efficient technologies." That's not what I'm talking about. I'm talking about private individuals producing electricity through renewables, and selling the excess production to power companies. Please explain to me how I can do this with nuclear. -
archiesteel at 14:48 PM on 1 November 2010What should we do about climate change?
@Peter Lang: "You have revealed you do not have the most basic understanding of what 'risk' means. I've pointed you to What is Risk? A simple explanation about five times so far and it is clear than you and others either haven't even bothered to read it or you haven't understood it." You didn't point me to that a single time (you did point CBDunkerson and possibly others to it, but I don't have time to read all the messages). Considering that you yourself have chosen not to respond to some of my arguments (such as the ability for individuals to produce and sell surplus solar/wind energy to power companies), I don't see why I should respond to arguments you have used in discussion with others. The fact you are wrong on something that simple (which link you've given to who) makes me question why we should trust you on more complex matters. In any case, as far as risk goes: an environmental catastrophe such as Chernobyl is not possible with Wind or Solar power. Furthermore, why do you insiste on gas generators as backup for wind/solar? Why not a nuclear solution for that as well? Again, I don't think any of us are against use of nuclear power. What we're objecting to is your "nothing but nuclear" approach. It's hard to have a rational conversation with someone who is so clearly biased. Also, for the record, can you state whether or not you agree with AGW theory? The fact you won't also makes your whole intervention suspect. -
Opa50 at 14:46 PM on 1 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
The scariest feature of the Grace rate plots is that the level of the Baffin, Newfoundland and Greenland seas have been dropping over the past 9 years. However, if we assume that the rate contours are artifically extended into these seas by the contour software and should really be zeroed at the coastline, then it appears that the rate of loss in southeast Greenland has slowed/dropped by at least 3 cm/yr while the rated has increased by about 4cm/yr in the west. Pretty poor/confusing data plot! -
dr2chase at 14:31 PM on 1 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
Can we quantify what this means for likely sea level rise? My understanding was that any Greenland melt was expected to take several hundred years; how does this rate compare? -
jyyh at 14:28 PM on 1 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
If the sewage pumps stop +6m isn't enough even today, the backpressure from the ocean waves can reach pretty high. One way to show this kind of data would be to title it:'Greenland mass change 2002-2010', and set the zero at the beginning of the measurement period. It's commonly done thus in faunistics. If the direction of the change is the only thing needed to show there's no need to compute the average, shortly. And I see Bern already said this. -
Bern at 14:16 PM on 1 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
In response to the graph issue - perhaps the clearer option for general consumption would be to graph "Ice mass change since 2002". That way, the zero would be at the top, and it should be clear that the change has been overwhelmingly negative. -
adelady at 13:51 PM on 1 November 2010Hockey stick or hockey league?
Why do we have this correlation / causation argument all the time. Causation always, always involves correlation. But correlation is a weird kind of tree - only some fruit is causation, the rest of the crop is just the human propensity to see patterns. -
scaddenp at 13:50 PM on 1 November 2010Hockey stick or hockey league?
Boofy - no. The correlation of temperature with the known forcings is a prediction of climate theory. The "hockey stick"s are a form of validation - one of many. -
Boofy at 13:22 PM on 1 November 2010Hockey stick or hockey league?
You seem to be confusing correlation and cause and effect.Response: Comparing hockey sticks are an example of correlation. But cause and effect are demonstrated by the many other human fingerprints. Satellite measurements of infrared radiation (commonly known as heat) being trapped at CO2 wavelengths is evidence of causation. Surface measurements of increased downward infrared radiation at CO2 wavelengths provide additional confirmation of causation. A cooling stratosphere coupled with a warming troposphere are also signatures of greenhouse warming. The falling diurnal cycle, falling annual cycle, shrinking thermosphere and rising tropopause are all further pieces that build a complete, consisten picture.
The lesson here is that to properly understand climate, you need to consider the full body of evidence as a whole. Don't get hung up on a single bit of data like the hockey stick. That's just one piece of the puzzle amongst the many lines of evidence for human caused global warming. -
Lou Grinzo at 12:51 PM on 1 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
The color-coded map is indeed nightmarish, and not just because it's still Halloween (at least here in the US). I wish that when the mass loss graph was drawn it didn't have the zero line/average indicated that way, though. I've had trouble in showing this to people and watching them make the mistake that John warns people about in the caption. I think it might be better to label the Y axis with 0 at the top, and add a blue line at the average, say.Response: I've had to explain that graph so many times to confused readers, I decided to get proactive and explain it in the caption this time. I don't like using the term 'anomaly' as it's a scientific term that has little meaning to the average person. But when I use change or variation, it seems to create even more confusion so I opted for the technically more precise but more opaque anomaly. -
gallopingcamel at 12:35 PM on 1 November 2010What should we do about climate change?
Ann, It goes against the grain to support France but when it comes to CO2 policy they are being unfairly treated. Take a look at this link: http://bravenewclimate.com/2010/10/25/2060-nuclear-scenarios-p4/ The comments by Tom Blees address some of your concerns and explain why France is not getting any credit for their achievements in reducing CO2 emissions. -
Boofy at 12:18 PM on 1 November 2010Hockey stick or hockey league?
Dhogaza: My point was that nearly everything human related has risen that way. CO2 emissions, photographs, electrical wiring, immunizations, crude oil pumped, waste landfill created. Why single out CO2?Response: "Why single out CO2?"
Because CO2 is a greenhouse gas that traps heat. So when we emit billions of tonnes of a greenhouse gas into the air, we expect to see warming occur. And it has. The fact that CO2 emissions and temperature show similar hockey sticks isn't the only case for human-caused global warming, of course. Corroborating this is many independent observations finding human fingerprints throughout climate change.
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Bern at 12:13 PM on 1 November 2010Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
This puts me in a very difficult position. When looking at purchasing waterfront property, do I buy at the +6m level, or +20m, or what??? More seriously, this is, as David Horton stated, a terrifying image. Whatever we do now, the rollercoaster has tipped over the starting ramp, and we're in for one hell of a ride... -
Peter Lang at 11:46 AM on 1 November 2010What should we do about climate change?
Moderator: Formatting worng again. Sorry. I am not sure what I did wrong. -
Peter Lang at 11:44 AM on 1 November 2010What should we do about climate change?
formatting of previous post got messed up. Moderator: please delet it. Ann @219 “OK, to illustrate the difference between a direct and an indirect approach: the hole in the ozone layer is a problem that has threatened mankind, .. In this case, a direct approach was taken: prohibit the use of CFCs that break down the ozone in the atmosphere. An indirect approach could be: allow CFCs, but promote the use of alternatives, and hope that in the end no manufacturer is going to use CFCs anymore.” I agree with the direct approach. But that is not what you are proposing when you advocate CCS and renewables but not nuclear. You are advocating that society (government) picks the technologies to use. Direct approach would be to restrict CO2 emissions. I oppose picking technology winners. I gave you reasons why CCS is a ridiculous approach to take. Instead, I’d suggest, as a first step we should remove all the impediments to low cost clean electricity generation. That could be done relatively quickly if we wanted to. Our governments could remove the blocks and send a clear message to investors that nuclear is wanted urgently; we could move start making real progress. Such a change of policy woiuld be most effective and would take effect fastets if it was led by those who have most strongly opposed it in the past (Left aligned political groups and the environmental NGO’s – the same ones who are most alarmist about the dangers of climate change)
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