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Comments 105401 to 105450:

  1. What should we do about climate change?
    @Peter Lang: "We require nuclear to be 10 to 100 times safer than coal? Why? We accept the safety of coal, so why do we demand that nuclear be 10 to 100 times safer?" Because the potential threat is higher as well. The greater the threat, the higher the security threshold must be. Anyone would be more concerned about the safe handling of C4 as opposed to some firecrackers... "And the same people who call climate sceptics “deniers” practice denial themselves." Wait, aren't you one of the people who'd call climate skeptics "deniers" as well? I mean, you *do* believe that AGW theory is correct, right? Following your logic, wouldn't that mean you're in denial yourself?
  2. gallopingcamel at 01:14 AM on 1 November 2010
    What should we do about climate change?
    archiesteel, (#209), Burning fossil fuels makes very poor use of an important resource and that is why I advocate building a large nuke each week or a small nuke each day. In the long run fission power is inevitable unless something even better such as fusion (Hot or Cold?) comes along. This is simply a matter of economics based on the fact that fission fuel reserves dwarf fossil fuel reserves.
  3. The 2nd law of thermodynamics and the greenhouse effect
    michael sweet #116 I can't find an equation for the 'WV and Ice Albedo feedback' which is stated for AD2005 at +2.1W/sq.m. I could make an estimate that it is linear back to zero back 255 years to AD1750 - or some other relationship (logarithmic? inverse square?) Please advise if you know this relationship. Read this again: "Dr Trenberth - a leading scientist (of travesty fame) uses a figure for positive feedback of +2.1 W/sq.m (Water Vapor + Ice Albedo), and a Figure of -2.8W/sq.m for S-B radiative cooling derived from the assumption of a 0.75 degK surface temperature rise since AD1750 which is importantly assumed to be approximately the same as the increase in the Earth's radiating temperature since AD1750." and "The positive feedback term of +2.1W/sq.m from Water Vapour and Ice Albedo implies a higher surface temp increase than the radiating Earth temp increase - which is the proposed 'enhanced greenhouse effect of CO2GHG interacting with Water Vapour' - I presume. It seems that the two are inconsistent. Would anyone care to comment on this?" I think I have covered the point. How can it be assumed that the S-B temperature increase around the Temp which the Earth radiates (assumed at 255 degK) is the same as the surface Temp increase (both 0.75 degK), if the enhanced greenhouse effect is already operative and producing a differential across the atmospheric column? If there is a WV + Ice albedo feedback of +2.1 W/sq.m then the surface temp increase of 0.75 degK should be significantly greater than the S-B radiating temp increase, should it not? Does not the enhanced CO2GHG theory state that for a doubling of CO2 we should see an approx 3degK surface temp increase for a 1 degK increase in the S-B radiating temperature. Now we have not had a doubling of CO2 at AD2005 wrt AD1750, but if there is a WV - CO2 feedback working then the surface temperature increase should be larger than the S-B radiating temp incease right now.
  4. What should we do about climate change?
    JMurphy, “I agree with MichaelM, and cannot understand how anyone can be advocating the relaxation of rules and regulations concerning nuclear builds - that is definitely the best way to put people off, especially if they believe they don't have a proper say about whether a nuclear power plant is going to be built in their own vicinity.” We require nuclear to be 10 to 100 times safer than coal? Why? We accept the safety of coal, so why do we demand that nuclear be 10 to 100 times safer? If the cost of the higher levels of safety was not an issue, then of course we would want it. But by running up the cost, as we have done, we make it more expensive than coal. Then it is uneconomic. So we stick with coal which causes 10 to 100 times more health effects and fatalities than nuclear per MWh. How dumb is that? Not only that, we continue to do so because of a phobia of all things nuclear. And the same people who call climate sceptics “deniers” practice denial themselves.
  5. Skeptical Science Firefox Add-on: Send and receive climate info while you browse
    I'm having a problem submitting a report. If I select an argument it turns yellow just as it should but if I then select view report no argument is listed. Also I can't select multiple arguments. If I select another one it goes yellow but the first deselects back to it's original colour. Any Ideas if it is something I'm doing wrong, a problem with my setup or a problem with this plugin? The site I'm trying to submit can be found here; http://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2010/10/30/the-pinocchio-syndrome/
    Response: You submit each argument one at a time, not simultaneously. So select an argment, it turns yellow, hit the 'Send Report' button. At that point, the article is added to our database - you'll notice the 'Send Report' window will change. The text box for the Article Title and dropdowns for Type/Bias disappear. Now you can only add extra arguments. To do this, go through the same process - select an argument, hit Send Report.
  6. What should we do about climate change?
    Estimates of health effects of Chernobyl vary and it is difficult to attribute the exact cause of any cancer. However, also consider the economic impact: However, the magnitude of the impact is clear from a variety of government estimates from the 1990s, which put the cost of the accident, over two decades, at hundreds of billions of dollars.6 The scale of the burden is clear from the wide range of costs incurred, both direct and indirect: — Direct damage caused by the accident; — Expenditures related to: • Actions to seal off the reactor and mitigate the consequences in the exclusion zone; • Resettlement of people and construction of new housing and infrastructure to accommodate them; • Social protection and health care provided to the affected population; • Research on environment, health and production of clean food; • Radiation monitoring of the environment; and • Radioecological improvement of settlements and disposal of radioactive waste. — Indirect losses relating to the opportunity cost of removing agricultural land and forests from use and the closure of agricultural and industrial facilities; and — Opportunity costs, including the additional costs of energy resulting from the loss of power from the Chernobyl nuclear plant and the cancellation of Belarus’s nuclear power programme. Coping with the impact of the disaster has placed a huge burden on national budgets... Total spending by Belarus on Chernobyl between 1991 and 2003 is estimated at more than US $13 billion. Taken from Another WHO report
  7. What should we do about climate change?
    @Peter Lang: is your link supposed to tell us Chernobyl was no biggie? Because reading it sure doesn't make it sound like a breeze. Hint: thyroid cancer is no fun, even if you don't die from it. @GallopingCamel: so, you've gone from skeptic who didn't believe in CO2 warming the globe to gung-ho advocate of nuclear power as a way to reduce CO2 emissions. Did I miss something, here? Did Koch Industries buy a whole lot of shares in Nuclear companies? (I kid, I kid...) "As you said, wind, solar and photo-voltaic sound great in theory but fail dismally when implemented on a large scale as in Denmark, Spain and Germany." Yeah, except they don't. @quokka: the problem with Chinese dams is that they are often built in regions with high population densities. I'm not sure there'd be a lot of deaths if one of the dams in Northern Quebec was blown up, for example... @Eric (skeptic): Germans don't mind subsidizing renewables, which is why they're happy with the current push for solar energy. Don't let nuclear power fanatics tell you otherwise.
  8. What should we do about climate change?
    Did I mention that renewables also contribute to lower electricity prices? When they contribute to the grid, they lower the spot price as the most expensive other sources go off-line. The claim that you need "excessive" back up capacity for renewables is also a straw man, as you need similar back up capacity for conventional power stations.
  9. What should we do about climate change?
    I agree with MichaelM, and cannot understand how anyone can be advocating the relaxation of rules and regulations concerning nuclear builds - that is definitely the best way to put people off, especially if they believe they don't have a proper say about whether a nuclear power plant is going to be built in their own vicinity. And I still think there is something not right about a power source which leaves a by-product that has to be buried deep underground, and which leads to headlines like this in the UK : Lake District identified as prime site for burial of nuclear waste
  10. What should we do about climate change?
    "Politics is the art of the possible" and given the political climate it is impossible to sell the mass building of nuclear reactors. The public is prepared, at the moment, to pay extra for solar and wind. Give it another 20 years when temperatures are still rising and the, at present 70-year-old, skeptics have reduced in number and volume a larger program of building reactors will probably take place.
  11. What should we do about climate change?
    @203 "Chernobyl: the true scale of the accident", by World Health Organisation
  12. What should we do about climate change?
    CBDunkerson "And the primary point continues to be that disputing the safety of solar and wind in comparison to nuclear is just pathetic. What I think is pathetic is that you are not prepared to open your mind and understand. Why didn’t you answer the questions I put to you in #177, #178, #179. If you did, and read ant tried to understand the links I provided, you might begin to understand why nuclear is about the safest of all electricity generation technologies on a properly comparable basis. Nuclear is some 10 to 100 times safer than coal for generating electricity as you can appreciate from figure 1 in the link I provided. I point this out because coal is the only other technology, realistically, that can provide the electricity modern society demands. Just humour me and follow through on the energy risk analysis. Stop assuming you are correct before you’ve done some homework.
  13. What should we do about climate change?
    quokka, The New York Academy of Sciences says that earlier estimates "have largely downplayed or ignored many of the findings in the Eastern European scientific literature and consequently have erred by not including these assessments." IEEE Spectrum: One Million Chernobyl Fatalities? Chernobyl: Consequences of the Catastrophe for People and the Environment The Banqiao and Shimantan Dam failures in 1975 were not an act of terrorism, but the result of a once in 2,000 year flood. The dams that were intentionally destroyed were coordinated for the purpose of protecting other dams by channeling the flood waters away. After the waters receded, the affected areas could be repopulated. The rebuilding project was finished in 1993 with an increased capacity. There is still a 30 kilometer area around the Chernobyl site that is cordoned off and patrolled by military forces, and an estimated five million people live in areas contaminated with radionuclides from the event.
  14. What should we do about climate change?
    quokka #199: Like Peter Lang, you are disputing an argument which was never advanced. The safety of nuclear vs fossil fuels is not in question. I had thought of the hydro dam possibility, but the potential death toll from a nuclear accident is just as great if not moreso. You cite Chernobyl, but that had a population of only about 14,000. A disaster like that, even if only likely to be triggered by some other catastrophe such as an attack or earthquake, in a major city would be far worse. And the primary point continues to be that disputing the safety of solar and wind in comparison to nuclear is just pathetic.
  15. What should we do about climate change?
    This was just posted on the BraveNewClimate web site by DV82XL, a Canadian contributor, and I thought some readers here might be intersted in the comment: @Gallopingcamel – First, and we have gone over this, there is no question that nuclear energy is less expensive if coal were held financially responsible for its environmental footprint, if only at the combustion end of the line. If every coal burner were forced to implement CCS, and vitrification of its ash stream , they would be out of business tomorrow. That they are not held fully accountable is the result of of a lack of legislation making them so, and that is a political issue, not an economic one. Trying to take an end run around this with some grand new design of NNP is just not going to work. Look. I have been in this fight for a very long time. I was active long before there was any talk of a nuclear renaissance – a time when one was regarded as slightly crazy even for considering nuclear energy as anything except undiluted evil. Thus those of us that were interested enough, and motivated enough, came to support nuclear energy for good solid technical reasons, and because we could think for ourselves. Yet I learned that attempting to appeal to reason only convinced a very limited number of people, and they would have probably convinced themselves, had they bothered to look into the subject prior. Attempting logic and facts with the doctrinaire antinuclear zombies, provoked not anger from them, but only giggles, so incapable were they of independent thought. And those that were in nether of the above groups had been so thoroughly brainwashed with the precautionary principal, and nonproliferation propaganda that they were unreachable without a lot of effort. Things have changed. The climate, has become the collective worry for the future, replacing thermonuclear Armageddon, and without much effort from our side, people are beginning to give nuclear energy a more nuanced look, more so than they have for decades. The antinuclear movement had become complacent and had not overhauled their arguments for years, and it shows. So it looks like nuclear energy might have a second chance.Great. But now everyone that was out in the cold designing reactors, planning fuel cycles, and such thinks that they have a shot, and are cutting each others throats attempting to sell their vision of how nuclear energy should be developed. Meanwhile they are loosing sight of the fact that the war is far from being won, and our enemies are regrouping. Right now it is a political duel between nuclear power and coal power – just look around the world – the countries with the most rabid (and effective) antinuclear movements are the ones with major coal sectors, (China excepted) this is not a coincidence. The coal industry is using their right to employ money-amplified free speech to persuade the world that nuclear energy is evil and that continued use of their product is mankind’s wisest course of action. This is where the fight is. The problem is this is a big enough battle as it is, and we do not have the advantage of having a huge industry behind us. So what is our response? To balkanize ourselves into camps backing one new technology or another, losing the support of what little backing we had from the established industry, and diluting the effort to build new reactors which at this point is the only practical path open to us. To do this we must win the hearts and minds of the masses, and you will not do that by floating technical arguments, and you won’t do that writing checks with your mouth that you expect your undeveloped designs to cash. We have to be out there vilifying coal and salving the fears people have with nuclear, as it is now. The future will come, it will, but not until the groundwork has been laid, and nuclear power is brought in from the cold.
  16. Danish translation of the Scientific Guide to 'Skeptics Handbook'
    Thanks for the Dutch translation, an excellent effort.
  17. gallopingcamel at 16:32 PM on 31 October 2010
    What should we do about climate change?
    archiesteel (#193), You are so right! The way forward is to avoid putting all one's eggs in one basket. To do that one needs to use technologies that have sound fundamental economics. Ones that can only survive until the subsidies run out make no sense. Right now hydro and coal can survive without subsidies. Nuclear is already economic in some countries (e.g. France, China and Russia).
  18. What should we do about climate change?
    @CBDunkerson "Yes, there are numerous safety precautions taken with nuclear power... precisely BECAUSE it is so very dangerous. No matter how 'safe' those precautions make it there is still a possibility of error or disaster which simply does not exist with renewable power. Imagine a terrorist attack on a wind farm... worst case scenario it takes out the power and maybe some cows get crushed by falling wind turbines. Things could be just a bit worse with a nuclear plant. Radiation release. Stolen radioactive materials. Possible meltdown." When all is said and done, risk needs to be quantified and balanced in the context of sometimes competing constraints. It goes without saying that the elephant in the risk room is dangerous climate change which will have consequences that are many orders of magnitude worse than that from any conceivable nuclear incident or indeed any other conceivable industrial accident. If one had to make a choice between another Chernobyl scale incident and 5C warming over the next 100 years, there could only be one rational choice. Did the Chernobyl incident make even one species extinct? Impossible to quantify, but the increased death toll this year alone from extreme weather events exacerbated by warming, has very likely exceeded the death toll from Chernobyl by a very large margin. There is good reason to believe that another Chernobyl is unlikely. Modern Gen III+ reactor designs have a probability risk assessment of a core damage incident (core melt) of order of 1 in 10^7 years of operation and of large radiation release of the order of 1 in 10^8 years. This is a couple of orders of magnitude better than the US NRC requirements. Some might say with some justification that it's not such a great idea, but heavily modified RMBK (Chernobyl design) reactors are still operational and haven't gone bang. Nobody will ever build anything like RBMKs ever again. They had a very high positive void coefficient with the accompanying risk of high thermal positive runaway feedback. Modern PWRs have a negative void coefficient. Much is made of the threat of terrorist or military attack on NPPs. Consider the effect of catastrophic damage by an attack on a large hydro dam. In 1975, the Banqiao dam in China collapsed killing 26,000 people directly and another 145,000 from famine and disease in the following weeks. In contrast, the death toll from Chernobyl is probably still under 100. I've never heard of objections to hydro on the grounds that it might be a military target, but the consequences could be just as bad or worse than completely pulverizing a reactor core and injecting a large proportion of the radioactive materials into the atmosphere. Why the double standard and where is the rational attitude to risk? Remember, hydro is a renewable. I'm not trying to minimize the consequences of the Chernobyl disaster, and am aware that there is a bigger story than just the number of dead. Any attempt to trivialize nuclear safety is plain dumb. What I am calling for is a rational attitude to risk which seems to fly out the door as soon as the word nuclear is mentioned.
  19. gallopingcamel at 16:25 PM on 31 October 2010
    What should we do about climate change?
    Peter Lang & quokka, Thanks for your devotion to pointing out the contribution that NPPs can make to improving our lives while reducing CO2 emissions. Our fossil fuel based civilization is in a race against time to find new sources of power. As you said, wind, solar and photo-voltaic sound great in theory but fail dismally when implemented on a large scale as in Denmark, Spain and Germany. Someone has to take it on the chin to convince the rest of us to try something else. It reminds me how great communism appeared to be until it was put into practice. For you "Renewables" advocates, don't feel too bad; some of us spent many years working on fusion power but that proved to be another "crock" at the end of a rainbow. Remember that "LFTRs are what fusion power wanted to be!"
  20. What should we do about climate change?
    KR @187 “Peter Lang - If you have no wind for weeks at a time, then you have the wrong power mix. There should be solar plants in the network as well, possibly "in place of"”. That would be even more expensive and still would not provide a reliable power supply without fossil fule back up. Nuclear = $4,000/kW (based on recent contract for 5400 MW in UAE Or, for equivalent dependable power supply: Wind = $2900/kW (ABARE, 2010) Solar thermal = $8,000/kW (Andasol 1) Grid enhancements = $1,000/kW Gas back-up = $1000/kW Total for wind and gas = $12,900/kW for equivalent dependable power.
  21. What should we do about climate change?
    #194: "That is why the gas industry loves renewables and promotes it like mad." No, that's not what happened in Texas, where wind is cutting into fossil fuel industry profits: the growth of wind in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) over the next three years will reduce the growth in gas consumption nationwide by an amount equivalent to 12.5% of the average annual growth in U.S. gas consumption over the last five years. ... The growth of Texas wind will have a more modest impact on the growth in generation from U.S. coal and gas plants, slowing the annual growth in gas-fired generation by 7.6%, and in coal-fired generation by 4.2%. And from Scientific American, April 2010: With their lower prices, wind producers are pushing gas generators out of the market, Gülen said. "That's why gas plants are complaining," Chang said. "All the traditional resources are complaining." The notion that 'wind doesn't replace coal' is very popular on a coal lobby website with ties to a The Institute for Energy Research, a lobbying group that is happy to spread the usual tripe about climate researchers: ... issues that are perceived to be an imminent crisis can mean more funding. The more threatening an issue is perceived to be the more likely it is to receive funding. Crises like the sensationalized climate change scenarios provide issues that ensure headlines ... This has little to do with the nuclear discussion. But the fossil fuel lobby clearly has an agenda that is tilted against wind. Don Quixote: Dost not see? A monstrous giant of infamous repute whom I intend to encounter. Sancho Panza: It's a windmill. Don Quixote: A giant. Canst thou not see the four great arms whirling at his back?
  22. Hockey stick or hockey league?
    Dr. Mandia @1 is being too modest ;) Go here to read Dr. Mandia's excellent overview of paleo reconstructions (some derived using no tree ring data or Mann's methods) all of which all have hockey-stick shapes...and that list is by no means comprehensive. Yet, more Hockey Sticks than you can, well, shake a stick at. It is almost 2011-- time for the "skeptics" to get with the times and move on. The real scientists have...and a long time ago now too.
  23. Eric (skeptic) at 14:05 PM on 31 October 2010
    What should we do about climate change?
    #193 archiesteel, you said "Germans are quite happy with their move to solar". From the following article, it sounds like the Germans who are happy about solar are the 500,000 Germans who are subsidized by their neighbors. http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2010/03/31/31greenwire-slashed-subsidies-send-shivers-through-europea-32255.html "Currently, utilities must buy solar power at 39 euro cents (52 U.S. cents) per kilowatt hour for 20 years. That is nearly eight times the market price, and the difference is passed on to consumers, who pay an average $5 extra each month in electricity fees per household. The feed-in tariff turned 500,000 Germans into profitable residential energy producers."
  24. What should we do about climate change?
    Muoncounter @182, you quoted "White, 2007: The normalized CO2 emissions, in tonnes of CO2 per GWeh, ranges from 14 to 33 for the wind systems, 974 for coal, and 10 and 34 for nuclear fission using gas centrifuge and gaseous diffusion enriched uranium, respectively." The figures for coal and nuclear are about correct (there is a range of estimates of course but these are in the ball park of what is well established). However, the wind figues are not comparable because wind power cannot substitute for coal power; only nuclear can do that (to any significant extent). As quokka pointed out, wind power does not shut down fossil fuel power stations. In fact, it demands more of them be built to back up for the wind power. That is why the gas industry loves renewables and promotes it like mad. That is why the gas industry funded the "Zero Carbon Australia - Stationary Energy Plan".
  25. What should we do about climate change?
    @quokka: "I find it impossible to find any sense in this." That's because Europeans still remember Tchernobyl, and (justifyable or not) are wary about the safety issues with nuclear. In any case, Germans are quite happy with their move to solar, and they expect to push capacity to 66 GW by 2030 (about 10% of the power consumption). "China in particular is building 80 GW of nuclear by 2020." They also plan on having 100 GW of Wind power and 20 GW of Solar power by that time (combined, 50% more than nuclear). Their PV cell-making factories are also becoming more efficient, churning out PVs at reduced cost. See, the Chinese aren't dumb. They know that putting all your eggs in the same basket, as you and Peter Lang seem to be advocating, is foolish. You also have yet to tell me how I can put a Nuclear reactor on my farm, while I can already install wind turbines and PVs in order to be a consumer-producer. *That* is the true revolution in renewables, i.e. the ability to decentralize production. Funny how, in your shameless sales pitch for nuclear, both you and Peter Lang avoid talking about this. A mixed solution is ideal. Anyone who tries to tell you otherwise is really speaking on behalf of a particular industry (an immoral act).
  26. What should we do about climate change?
    Very often the people who believe and advocate the extreme alarmist views of the dangers of climate change are the same people who propagate alarmist views about nuclear power. This damages their credibility. I’d urge contributors to take this point seriously. I’d urge you to seriously look at the evidence about nuclear power in a similar way as you believe you have done on climate change.
  27. Hockey stick or hockey league?
    I don't know anyone that shows THE Hockey Stick (Mann et al 1998/99) to a newcomer in order to educate them on climate change. The only reason we're talking about a 12-year old study that has been superseded (and generally corroborated) by newer studies is because the skeptics believe that the TAR graphic changed human consciousness and political will on climate change. The discussion they propagate is political, rather than scientific. Science has moved on, but they cannot.
  28. Hockey stick or hockey league?
    Great post, John. I think it's worth keeping in mind why the deniers so viciously attack the HS and anyone who supports it. While John is obviously right in saying, "the original 1998 hockey stick by Mann, Bradley and Hughes didn't prove that humans are causing global warming", the simple fact is that if you show the HS to a climate science newcomer he/she will instantly leap to exactly that conclusion. I've seen it happen. Even if these newbies reach an accurate conclusion via faulty logic, it's still a devastatingly effective visual aid. Therefore, the deniers conclude, it MUST be neutralized, via whatever means necessary. And we've already seen them resort to some cringe-inducing means, with more to come, I'd guess.
  29. What should we do about climate change?
    CB Dunkerson @176 You say:
    defining 'safety' based on what HAS happened in the past rather than what COULD happen in the future.
    Please explain what you believe COULD go wrong? How many fatalities? What is the probability of such an occurrence (immediate and latent fatalities per TWh and over what time period)? Why do you believe the ExternE study is wrong? Please explain why the researchers who contributed to ExternE (and the many other authoritative studies around the world over the past 40 years) have it wrong? Have you considered that perhaps it is you that is biased, rather than those who have actually looked seriously at the authoritative studies (as distinct from those who have simply accepted, without questioning, the material published by anti-nuclear groups).
  30. What should we do about climate change?
    Sorry about the repeat send of a previous message. I am not sure why this is happening.
  31. What should we do about climate change?
    CBDunkerson "And that's despite a ridiculously pro-nuclear bias, limiting the study area to exclude all previous nuclear disasters, and defining 'safety' based on what HAS happened in the past rather than what COULD happen in the future?" Clearly, you haven't understood. But you could hardly expect to in 10 minutes. Here is the link to ExternE? http://www.externe.info/ . You probably need to start here because you have no understanidn about the subiect.
  32. What should we do about climate change?
    #187: "claims that renewables don't reduce CO2 production difficult to believe." Perhaps the source of the data for those claims explains why. Wind Integration: Does it reduce pollution and GHG emissions? -- published at 'coalpowermag.com' And a 'study' from natural gas industry consultant Bentek Energy
  33. Hockey stick or hockey league?
    For those that claim the hockey stick is wrong: The hockey stick-shape temperature plot that shows modern climate considerably warmer than past climate has been verified by many scientists using different methodologies (PCA, CPS, EIV, isotopic analysis, & direct T measurements). Consider the odds that various international scientists using quite different data and quite different data analysis techniques can all be wrong in the same way. What are the odds that a hockey stick is always the shape of the wrong answer?
  34. What should we do about climate change?
    Peter Lang - If you have no wind for weeks at a time, then you have the wrong power mix. There should be solar plants in the network as well, possibly "in place of". It's important to site renewable supplies in a way consistent with local climate. I must admit that I too find your advocacy for nuclear a bit off-putting, and your claims that renewables don't reduce CO2 production difficult to believe. There are certainly a lot of countries and businesses investing renewables. http://www.xkcd.com/808/
  35. What should we do about climate change?
    Sorry, please use this link for the UKERC 2006 Intermittency report
  36. What should we do about climate change?
    A review here gives costs for each electricity generating technology, including by country, which is a bit of an eyeopener: Estimates of electricity production costs I disagree with Peter Lang's posts about renewables' effects on CO2 reduction. Renewables punch above their weight, as what they put on the grid means that the lowest-efficiency/most expensive fossil plant drops off the grid. This is known as the merit-order effect. Merit order In practice this means the CO2 emissions savings tend to be from the dirtiest coal plant. * The UKERC 2006 TPA Intermittancy report deals with the subject of intemittency and shows that the efficiency losses in FF plant range from zero and 7% of the emissions savings from wind. This means that the wind savings range from 93- 100% of the emissions from the most polluting FF plant.* * Actually, this may not always true as it depends on the relative price of gas, coal and oil. Which brings me to Ann's concern: any tax on carbon has to be global otherwise, as she rightly implies, FF usage will just be transferred to the market where it is cheapest. However, a global carbon tax and a level playing field by taking away the annual $550+ Billion subsidies to fossil fuels will make renewables competitive enough to make fossil fuels way too expensive to burn.
  37. What should we do about climate change?
    quokka the US is probably going to loose its leadership in all the renewable energy sector. Estimates are that it invest about half of what China does. In relative terms, it invest less than almost any european country. And yes, China "game plan" is to invest a lot and gain the leadership in the modern energy production and distribution sector. USA should play the same game, but apparently they're not willing to.
  38. DMI and GISS Arctic Temperatures: Hide the Increase?
    I have updated all appropriate charts in all posts with the new DMI data. The overall DMI average trend increases slightly from 0.376 to 0.383 degrees C/decade. I also calculated trends for the difference between the Lansner and DMI Summer "above zero" data, which was 0.024 degrees C/decade. Whilst this error may seem small, it effectively doubles the real trend which is most likely due to small bias errors in transitions between models.
  39. DMI and GISS Arctic Temperatures: Hide the Increase?
    I now have the updated 2010 ECMWF T1279 model (used by DMI since January 2010) daily 2m temperature values for >80N, (courtesy of DMI). From this data the average Summer “above zero” temperature is 0.48 degrees C for 2010. Although this is indeed a relatively low value, it is from the first Summer data from the new T1279 model time series, and as DMI have pointed out this model change alone could easily account for small bias steps (similar to those seen elsewhere in the series). It is obviously too early to say yet for trends from the T1279 model. If the Lansner “pixel count” errors (-0.23 degrees C for 2009, -0.14 degrees C for 2010) are also factored in we can explain the apparent Summer "cooling" as an artifact due to a combination of these two errors. Bias errors are discussed (with respect to corrections applied to different overlapping satellite sensor data) in some of the references in the advanced article. The ERA-Interim does attempt to resolve these bias differences. The daily ERA-Interim re-analysis values are not readily available for Summer 2010 yet. Given the relatively low variability of Summer temperature values from 1989 to date and the very small positive summer “above zero” trend of 0.1 degrees C/decade in the ERA-Interim daily "above zero" data there is no reason to expect large deviations for summer 2010 values. The Summer monthly ERA-Interim values for >80N (JJA) give what is statistically speaking a flat line trend between 1989 and 2009. Given that melt season temperature rises as well as falls are constrained by the ice melt temperature (whilst the ice exists) this is to be expected.
  40. What should we do about climate change?
    #181 archiesteel 1. German PV solar has an installed nameplate capacity of ~13 GW. The capacity factor is ~12%. The amount of electricity generated from solar PV is about the same as one EPR nuclear power plant. But at around ten times the cost. Germany could have had ten EPR's for the cost of solar PV and that would represent a significant CO2 abatement. I find it impossible to find any sense in this. 2. Lumping together solar and wind with hydro under the banner of renewables is very misleading. Hydro is readily dispatchable. Solar and wind are not. This is critically important. Furthermore hydro is resource limited and cannot grow indefinitely. The issue is not whether solar and wind can generate some electricity with low life cycle CO2 emissions, because they clearly can. The issue is whether they can displace fossil fuels in baseload electricity generation. This is far more problematic. We do know that nuclear can because of the French example. As to "hot or not", the hand wringing over nuclear is very much a Western political affliction. The major Asian economies are all committed to nuclear power and China in particular is building 80 GW of nuclear by 2020. To put this in perspective it is the equivalent of about 660 GW of solar PV in Germany. Germany currently has 13 GW. The cost of new nuclear in China is substantially cheaper than wind and hugely cheaper than solar. China has announced the investment of $180 billion in a "nuclear city" - a giant technology park for manufacture of nuclear components, R&D, education and training etc. The intent is obvious - a massive gearing up for large scale nuclear deployment. There are many countries now very seriously considering or planning for nuclear - including a number of middle eastern and north African states. Italy is reconsidering nuclear. Vietnam is proceeding with nuclear and recently called for regional cooperation to develop nuclear power. South Africa is planning for much increased nuclear. Of course it remains to be seen how widespread new nuclear deployment develops but worldwide it is simply untrue that renewables are not and nuclear is not. It is very obvious also that if the US keeps on dithering, it's lead in nuclear science and engineering will be lost to the Asian countries and the latter will become the worlds major exporters of nuclear technology and engineering and that is their game plan.
  41. What should we do about climate change?
    #158: "The actual measurements that have been made (in Netherlands, Texas and Colorado), suggest that wind power avoids little if any emissions." The headlines regarding the rate at which wind farms are growing required posing the question in #153. Your objection to my quote from a wind industry group was certainly warranted. However, citing measurements made in Texas is not a meaningful point of reference: Texas is home to a large refining and industrial industry, thousands of old oil and gas wells (many still flaring methane) and Texans loooove to drive them big ol' cars. So the state that simultaneously has the largest wind energy capacity in the US is also the worst carbon emitter in the US. Denny and O'Malley 2006 It was found that wind generation could be used as a tool for reducing CO2 emissions but alone, it was not effective in curbing SO2 and NOx emissions. Environmental impacts of wind energy projects, NAS Based on U.S. Department of Energy projections for wind-energy development in the United States, the committee estimated that by 2020, wind energy will offset approximately 4.5 percent of the carbon dioxide that would otherwise be emitted by other electricity sources. White 2007 The normalized CO2 emissions, in tonnes of CO2 per GWeh, ranges from 14 to 33 for the wind systems, 974 for coal, and 10 and 34 for nuclear fission using gas centrifuge and gaseous diffusion enriched uranium, respectively.
  42. What should we do about climate change?
    @Peter Lang: Renewables currently provide 18% of energy production worldwide. Germany's solar power output in snow at 4,1 GW, 1.1% of the country's energy, but it is expected to get to 25% by 2050. Renewable energy in Germany is now 16% of total energy production. It's clear you are not being objective in your argument, and that your enthusiasm for nuclear energy has clouded your judgement. Again, many of us are not discounting nuclear, but your nothing-but-nuclear attitude is highly suspicious. It's hard not to believe you have a personal stake, sorry. "I see. And what do you base that on? Greenpeace, I suppose" No, physics. Nuclear power requires complex and extensive security protocols in order to keep it safe. Nuclear waste disposal is a serious issue (just remember the debate about Yucca mountain). "archiesteel, I'd urge you to challenge your beliefs too." You first - although I suspect they're not actually beliefs, but rather self-interest. Doesn't really matter: renewable are hot, nuclear is not. You didn't even address the argument of private client-producers contributing to the power grid. In other words, you are sticking to your guns and refusing to hear any other argument in favor of renewables...
  43. What should we do about climate change?
    I wonder how anyone could calculate the externalities due to nuclear plants and facilities decommissioning, long term storage and possible accidents related to them. As far as I know, there's still no well assessed solution. Indeed, the EternE study left them out; hence the 0.2-0.7 EUR-cents per KWh estimate should be considered as a lower bound. A few words on subsides. Given that externalities are by definition a market failure, we can not rely on any self-regulating mechanism. Then, even dropping all the direct and indirect subsides is not enough, we need to internalise the costs.
  44. What should we do about climate change?
    CBDunkerson "And that's despite a ridiculously pro-nuclear bias, limiting the study area to exclude all previous nuclear disasters, and defining 'safety' based on what HAS happened in the past rather than what COULD happen in the future?" Clearly, you haven't understood. But you could hardly expect to in 10 minutes. Here is the link to ExternE? http://www.externe.info/ . You probably need to start here because you have no understanidn about the subiect.
  45. What should we do about climate change?
    CB Dunkerson "In short... you're wrong and even a study biased towards your position STILL says you're wrong." Why do you say that ExternE is biased one way or another?
  46. What should we do about climate change?
    CBDunkerson What did you look at? Did you look at figure 1 and figure 2 here? Can you interpret them? Did you read the article?
  47. Waste heat vs greenhouse warming
    RSVP #353 "...I must be considering too much air (the problem at hand must be limited to a lower altitude). This makes sense, because we know that its much colder at 27,000 feet than "near the ground". " so continuing... with this idea... you can assume less air, and make the comparison for 2700 feet, one tenth of the height, so as to equal the amount of energy to raise the temperature of air 30 degrees, to that which is received in a twelve hour period. The question arises, as this is just the amount of energy to warm this amount of air 30 degrees, what is left to warm the surface as well? A surface that is contantly radiating during the full 24 hours. The altitude to consider must be lower then. So, lets take it down to 1000 feet for the comparison. Now there is energy for warming that amount of air 30 degrees, and double for the surface which is radiating constantly. The 30 degrees may as well be due to convection for all we need to care. Its doesnt really matter, since the object here is to figure out how much air to consider for a comparison of solar to the effects of waste heat. If you now only consider the mass of air associated with 1000 feet around the entire globe (instead of 27000 feet), the effects of waste heat as calculated earlier goes up 27 times. Crossing you fingers doesnt make this energy dissapear, yet it is always considered insignificant to what can be imagined as a greenhouse effect. I have lost the debate here not for what I have said, as the numbers speak for themselves, but for commitment to an entrenched theory. Whether the GHG is real or not shouldnt really matter to anyone that is truely concerned with global warming, since fossil fuels are running out anyway. Waste heat on the other hand will always be an inconvenient truth, whether it comes from nuclear, or changes in albedo due to urbanization, solar panels, highways, etc. For this reason, I understand how it is not an attractive topic, especially for those with optimism about the alternative energy sources.
  48. What should we do about climate change?
    Peter #175: So... your evidence that solar, wind, and hydro power are NOT safer than nuclear is that nuclear is safer than coal. Who could argue with such logic? BTW, the report you cite... doesn't cover solar at all, but finds hydro and wind to be safer than nuclear. And that's despite a ridiculously pro-nuclear bias, limiting the study area to exclude all previous nuclear disasters, and defining 'safety' based on what HAS happened in the past rather than what COULD happen in the future. In short... you're wrong and even a study biased towards your position STILL says you're wrong.
  49. What should we do about climate change?
    CBDunkerson "Are you arguing just for argument's sake or are you truly that delusional?" Are you capable of questioning your beliefs? Seriously are you? If so look at this, then ask your questions? I suggested in the post you replied to to Google: "ExternE, NewExt". Obviously you didn't bother. You just posted your comment based on your beliefs. Nuclear is about the safest of all electricity generation technologies on a properly comparable basis (life cycle analysis). It is about 10 to 100 times safer than coal.
  50. What should we do about climate change?
    daisym - I am not sure I understand you. You claim that scientist cant tell you what will happen to climate if you go to zero emissions? This seems to be at odd with published papers. Eg. Hare and Meinshausen or Matthews and Weavers. You will much more in references and citations for these. If these papers dont cover what you mean, can you explain more? Meinshausen has also published on what limitation on GHGs is needed to meet a 2deg limit.

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