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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 105451 to 105500:

  1. gallopingcamel at 10:29 AM on 3 November 2010
    What should we do about climate change?
    Berenyi Peter, I am planning a trip to Florida Power & Light to look at their 75 MW PV plant and their solar plant that is a co-generation source to a conventional plant. I am hoping to learn something about the economics of such projects in this very favorable location. Until you build something on a reasonably large scale it is hard to be sure what the true operating costs are. I am hoping to get some insights on details such as how much cleaning the PVs or mirrors need. You are right (as usual) about my home PV project. It almost makes sense when the government subsidy is taken into account so I am wavering about going ahead with it given that the price FP&L will pay me is not guaranteed. What happened in Spain could happen here.
  2. The Grumble in the Jungle
    The supposedly omitted citations - per Nepstad, who had no acknowledged hand in drafting the IPCC report chapter - do not support the claims made in the IPCC passage "In sum, the IPCC statement on the Amazon was correct." - Daniel Nepstad Could it be any clearer?
  3. gallopingcamel at 10:07 AM on 3 November 2010
    What should we do about climate change?
    Daniel Bailey, (#267) I have read hundreds of posts by Peter Lang on other blogs, so I am mystified by some of your comments in #267. He may be as dedicated a member of the CAGW choir as you. Even NPP nuts like me are not advocating 100% nuclear. I like hydro even more and wind too where it makes economic sense. The trouble with renewables is that they are hard to scale up to take care of even today's demand for electricity. Fossil fuels fill the gap and will continue to do so until a technology that is both cost effective and scalable is available. With regard to reducing CO2 emissions I appear to be in agreement with the majority on this blog so I advocate NPPs as a way to reduce the dominance of fossil fueled power plants in most countries (France being the notable exception). Even if people like me fail to persuade you, it will not matter in the long run. Once the fossil fuels have been consumed the huge reserves of fission fuels will not be left in the ground.
  4. What should we do about climate change?
    quokka at 00:38 AM on 3 November, 2010 I am talking about current build and immediate (20-30 yr) planned build. The MIT report is realistic (though the contributors have vested interest). Several decades worth of standard "single cycle" or open cycle fuel use are envisaged. This is the view of the EU and bodies such as the EIA. Gen III reactor operational lifetime is expected to be ~60 yrs with build over next 30 yrs (and many commercial reactors are already running way past their design life). IAEA quote from 2007: "At the end of 2006, world uranium production (39,603 tons) provided about 60% of world reactor requirements (66,500 tons) for the 435 commercial nuclear reactors in operation. The gap between production and requirements was made up by secondary sources drawn from government and commercial inventories (such as the dismantling of over 12,000 nuclear warheads and the re-enrichment of uranium tails). Most secondary resources are now in decline and the gap will increasingly need to be closed by new production. Given the long lead time typically required to bring new resources into production, uranium supply shortfalls could develop if production facilities are not implemented in a timely manner." The latest industry "red book" from 2009 highlights an extra 15% new ore discoveries and gives slightly more than 100 yrs of economically viable reserves at 2008 consumption rates. Various industry 2010 estimates vary from 75 to 100 yrs. More resource will be discovered, and some new mines have opened recently (not pretty at all) but exploration, ore and processing costs have dramatically increased. Let us suggest consumption doubles as China, India and others build new reactors through the next 50 yrs to displace coal... A solution: Gen IV closed cycle (breeder), or Thorium?: MIT report estimates 50 to 100 yrs to move to new technologies. There are many issues to be solved. As with some of the more significant projected climate changes, I am concerned about and interested in what's next, even if I may not be around to see it. Whilst there is much idealism and glossing over on both sides here (renewables/nuclear), many governments are meanwhile pragmatically planning significant investments in both.
  5. The Grumble in the Jungle
    Dear Rob The supposedly omitted citations - per Nepstad, who had no acknowledged hand in drafting the IPCC report chapter - do not support the claims made in the IPCC passage. Nepstad 1994, 1999 and 2004 are peer-reviewed, no doubt - the issue at hand is however not that.
  6. Berényi Péter at 08:43 AM on 3 November 2010
    What should we do about climate change?
    Consider this Solar panel profitability page. Conclusion: in order to make solar panels a viable option, we need government support. In other words, solar energy is not economically viable at all. For government support is not for free, it is financed by tax money. That is, in order to be able to provide an incentive, more tax should be collected. If this money is subtracted from the profit made on installing solar panels, the net result is still negative. We should clearly wait until both cost of solar panels would approach that of ordinary roof tile and temporary energy storage gets affordable. Until that time all the money should go into honest R+D and none of it into fake projects.
  7. The Grumble in the Jungle
    Shub @11 - your comment doesn't make sense. The omitted citations, supporting the WWF document & the IPCC claim, are peer-reviewed literature. Nepstad was the lead author on those studies mentioned above.
  8. Hockey stick or hockey league?
    #17: "The Northern Hemisphere 'land' temperature chart exaggerates the temperature increase, a global chart which includes the oceans " Or to put it the other way, the NH land chart is the temp increase of concern in the immediate term; the oceans have large thermal inertia that will respond in time. "The pattern emerging from this award winning blog is a regurgitation pattern. " And why not? The denials are mostly repetition; the rebuttals just keep on working. Case in point: relative to AD1750 - radiative cooling at AD2005 is estimated at ... Haven't we heard that before?
  9. Hockey stick or hockey league?
    KL - "why not...". Because the point of "hockey stick" reconstructions is not to show correlation but to compare temperature observations to model predictions. Its not a correlating trends that we are interested in but whether past temperatures match predictions from model forcings within the error limits of both.
  10. What should we do about climate change?
    ATTN: 3drchase I had a magic wand, I would wave it over your head and transport you to Wnnipeg Can when it is about -30 deg C in the wintertime. As I metioned, hockey practice for the small kids starts at 5 or 6 AM. If you live in Can, you aren't going to ride bicycle to practice when the streets and land are covered with snow and temp is in the -teens below 0 deg C. BTW I live in Metro Vancouver. The rainy season starts in Nov and lasts to Mar. Jun is always cold and rainy. I an old man and ain't going to ride a bicycle when I can drive in comfort in my '82 Merc Capri HB.
  11. The Grumble in the Jungle
    Yes, true,...the WWF document omitted some 'citations'. But the 'citation' omitted was to a now-defunct Brazilian website, which contains the passage. You have forgotten to mention that - a fact which only weakens the IPCC's case, if anything. Nepstad can offer his opinions to support the authors of the WWF document. How does that in any way, relate to what the IPCC did with its Amazon chapter?
  12. What should we do about climate change?
    Peter Lang, I am still agnostic about nuclear power, but I find your arguments singularly unconvincing. The constant insistance that nothing else can possibly work is too extreme to convince me. I have seen other reasonable people propose using both wind and solar with storage. I see many wind generators being built now in the USA and no NPP. The wind must be cost effective or it would not be built. According to you, it would take at least 10 years to get started with nuclear and 20 to make a significant difference, while wind can start now. You want to use unproven technology for the NPP which is a big ask to solve the problem by itself. You have not addressed my question about what you will do in Afganistan, Nigeria and Iran. I am uncomfortable about building reactors in those locations. I find the solutions that incorporate many different sources of power, wind, NPP, solar, geothermal, to be most convincing. The issue is what fraction of the mix is each type. You have been making most of the posts in this thread and I see little headway in getting agreement. Think if you are achieving your goals.
  13. Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
    #30 Albatross Can you please refrain from suggesting nefarious goings on concerning these Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) data? Thanks. Asking the average "skeptic" to argue without hinting at conspiracy is like asking a baseball player to use a swizzle stick instead of a bat. They may downplay or disavow the conspiratorial angle when it's expedient, but when so much scientific evidence points to the same conclusion, conspiracy is ultimately the only coherent, politically effective counterargument available. It doesn't make any sense, and it requires throwing all standards of evidence out the window (including the ones "skeptics" demand for AGW), but without it, they'd be stuck with the argument that thousands upon thousands of incorrect measurements somehow dovetailed to form the false impression of a dangerously warming world. That's not the sort of argument that fires up the base.
  14. Isn't global warming just 2 °C and isn't that really small?
    RE: #36 Glenn Tamblyn, I have reworded it a couple of times because the writing was a bit ambiguous. My original phrasing had the CO2 doubling at the end of the sentence iirc and that confused some readers, so I moved it to the middle. I've similarly changed the phrasing of the 'warmest in 600,000 years' paragraph. The meaning of both is the same as it was originally, but hopefully it is less open to misinterpretation. I would also consider specifying that comparing any individual ice core to today and seeing whether it has been 2 °C warmer than today or not isn't necessarily going to be that accurate. After all, we don't expect warming to be absolutely uniform and the majority of places won't warm by 2 C exactly, therefore your attempted comparison will be wrong.
  15. What should we do about climate change?
    Re: Peter Lang (260) Thanks for the links. They're appreciated, but completely unnecessary. When it comes to the value of nuclear power as an energy supply source, you're preaching to a choir member. However (there always seems to be a however, doesn't there?), let's be pragmatic. While an end-goal of 100% of energy needs supplied by NPP can be an admirable goal (if there exists no other practical alternatives no wean us off fossil fuels), in the world most of us inhabit there exists no possibility of that happening. In order for that to be an eventuality, there must first take place an extensive educational process to resolve lingering public concerns and fears. So, in the short term, you must make allowances for a place at the energy dinner table for renewable energy sources (specifically wind and solar). Wind and solar also possess the distinct advantage of tying directly into the American self-definition of independence and autonomy, and not being beholden to outside interests. Given the choice, a not-insubstantial segment of the populace would opt for a combination of wind/solar/geothermal energy sources for personal and business usage. And that includes myself, my admiration of NP notwithstanding. So a mixture of energy sources which center around NPP as a primary driver appear to be your best short-term bet. Given time, perhaps, a larger piece of the energy pie will go to NPP. Or not. But a greater personal problem exists for you, Peter, on this blog. SkS exists to provide clarity and education for laymen and interested professionals about the science underlying global warming and CO2's role in that warming. Your refusal to acknowledge a position either in belief of the science underlying humanity as the primary driver of CO2 elevations and their central role as the biggest control knob of global temperatures, or in disbelief of it, stands to severely undermine your credibility in your attempts to sway people's minds here to your advocacy position of NPP. Let there be no mistake on this: there exists no play, no grey area, no middle ground; either you acknowledge the science and CO2's role in the warming we empirically see, or you don't. Black and white. It doesn't make you an advocate of AGW in the same sense that you advocate for NPP's. But it will either restore some needed credibility to you, or take it away completely should you disavow it. As Bibliovermis has stated, you cannot advocate a solution for a problem which you refuse to acknowledge exists and hope to retain a shred of credibility with any here. Including me. The Yooper
  16. Hockey stick or hockey league?
    Actually, Ken, radiative cooling increases with the temperature but decreases with GHG forcing. The upwards slope in temperature indicates that the radiative cooling is below the solar input (imbalanced), and will stay that way until we reach a (rough) equilibrium. Radiative cooling is presently under the pre-industrial levels. Which won't change as long as we're chasing the GHG forcings - the energy imbalance causing the climate change.
  17. Hockey stick or hockey league?
    Ken,The northern hemisphere land is used because there is the most data for that chart. I care more about the land than the ocean since I live on land and it affects my life the most. The thermal inertia of the ocean keeps it cool for the present. Eventually it will warm up and then we will really be in trouble. The radiative cooling increase is entirely due to the increase in temperature caused by AGW. How deniers can argue that the increase in radiative cooling is positive is beyond my understanding.
  18. What should we do about climate change?
    #Peter Hogarth "the current build of Gen III reactors may run out of fuel before the end of their design life if current rates of use accelerate (going by the industries own figures)." Probably not according to a big recent MIT study of the nuclear fuel cycle. However, there are lot's of politics connected with the fuel cycle in the US and I think one needs to read between the lines a bit. In particular, the US would like to control the fuel cycle internationally as much as it can. But that doesn't change the finding of sufficient uranium. The Future of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle
  19. Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
    Robert Wray #39: "The best way to verify results in science is to use multiple methods to measure ice trends." Speaking of which; Cryosat recently completed its commissioning phase... so we should soon have another very high quality data source by which to evaluate the Greenland ice mass (among other things).
  20. Hockey stick or hockey league?
    adelady #14 Why indeed. The pattern emerging from this award winning blog is a regurgitation pattern. Re-stating arguments and reproducing charts which have already been extensively discussed elsewhere. The Northern Hemisphere 'land' temperature chart exaggerates the temperature increase - a global chart which includes the oceans shows significantly less temperature rise. The Net Climate Forcing chart might also mislead when it should be noted that relative to AD1750 - radiative cooling at AD2005 is estimated at -2.8W/sq.m and rising (exponentially and negatively) with the fourth power of absolute temperature. Boofy might have a point - why not produce a chart of Chinese GDP or the population of Chinese solar panels plotted against CO2 GHG concentration. I am sure the correlation will be high.
  21. What should we do about climate change?
    Peter Lang #242: "Who said anything about 100% nuclear?" Peter Lang #204: "Nuclear is some 10 to 100 times safer than coal for generating electricity as you can appreciate from figure 1 in the link I provided. I point this out because coal is the only other technology, realistically, that can provide the electricity modern society demands." Peter Lang #237: "You believe GHG emissions are a mjor risk, yet you preclude tackling them with the only viable technology available to make serious cuts" Peter Lang #194: "However, the wind figues are not comparable because wind power cannot substitute for coal power; only nuclear can do that (to any significant extent)." Your repeated insistence that nuclear is our only alternative to coal inherently precludes all other options. Also in #242: "That question is really asking: why do you have aphobia about nuclear power?" This in response to a post (#238) wherein I advocated the use of nuclear power; "However, the most logical course is a mix of energy sources... wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, nuclear, et cetera. Each where they are most accepted and practical." It is simply impossible to have a rational discussion with someone who CONSTANTLY makes false statements about the very content of the dialog. Your advocacy of nuclear power is SO combative and SO irrationally over the top that you actually manage to turn OTHER advocates of nuclear power off it.
  22. Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
    Glenn Tamblyn #14 "Individually we can do nothing, only when we all act together." More realistically, at least have a good plan B in the works. With all those computers and bull dozers, just think of the possibilities... perfect waves for surfing, fish farms, etc.
  23. What should we do about climate change?
    The future of nuclear energy production looks bright, as it has for decades. The present (reality?) turned out to be problematic and we've been waiting for solutions for decades.
  24. What should we do about climate change?
    @Peter I have the feeling we are running in circles. In response to your last post, I will therefore only stress the most important issue I have wanted to bring up: Peter: The point I am making is that if we allow clean electricity to be cheap, it will displace oil for transport and gas for heating and, therefore, reduce emissions from all fossil fuel use. I completely understand the point you are making. I am asking you to provide proof that your hypothesis is correct: If we provide enough cheap energy (e.g. nuclear), that it will automatically make mankind turn away from fossil fuel (even with fossil fuel still available in substantial amounts). Until now, reality proves otherwise (see France and see worldwide CO2 emissions). What makes you think it will be different in the future ?
  25. What should we do about climate change?
    I said upthread that people don't fear nuclear power once they have lived near it. Here is a photo of once of Canada's nuclear power stations, Pickering, nestled neatly in the suburbs of Toronto. Land values around here are higher than around the coal power stations.
  26. 2009-2010 winter saw record cold spells
    jyyh the paper you quote should be Turney and Jones 2010. Please not that they call the Agulhas current effect a feedback, not a forcing.
  27. What should we do about climate change?
    For those who would place more trust in Scientific American, you might prefer Smarter Use of Nuclear Waste
  28. What should we do about climate change?
    Daniel Bailey, Regarding the management and reuse of once-used-nuclear-fuel (nuclear waste to some), you might be interested in this article. If you would like to know more about the Gen IV and small nuclear power plants, this USNRC web site provides authoritative short summaries on the current status of the main players.
  29. 2009-2010 winter saw record cold spells
    As the oceans are heat capacitors of the planet and there are 3 of them, Pacific, Atlantic and the Indian ocean it is reasonable to suggest cold intrusions from either pole will affect the weather systems over them. This combined with the Walker circulation and ENSO might produce an uneven rythm on the weather patterns over land areas, even without the GW effect. There was a paper recently of the significance to the warming of the S Atlantic of Agulhas current, but of course I've lost the link. Similar patterns would be the Indonesian throughflow (linked to ENSO and IOD) and the cold water intrusion to N Atlantic (likely linked to NAO). In combination these likely produce the teleconnection patterns the values of which are usually evaluated after they've happened, but which also have a limited amount of predictive value.
  30. Skeptical Science Firefox Add-on: Send and receive climate info while you browse
    I've installed the Skeptical Science 1.0 add-on, then closed and restarted my Firefox v3.6.12 a couple of times, but I don't see the View Report icon or Create Report icon anywhere. Might some other add-on be interfering?
  31. Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
    HR @38, I think John may have erred when he said "hottest on record". In the report they say: "A clear pattern of exceptional and record-setting warm air temperatures is evident at long-term meteorological stations around Greenland (Table GL1)." They then go on to indicate which stations had record setting seasons (e.g., Nuuk (warmest spring and summer) and Thule (warmest spring), or Aasiaat warmest past 12-months on record). So their summary is, IMHO, a fair reflextion of recent temperatures at stations with long-term records. So, IMHO, John should probably say: "Noteworthy are the exceptional and record-setting warm air temperatures observed over portions of Greenland so far 2010". Caveat--it could be that another data set, such as GISS or ETA-interim, supports John's wording, I don't know.
  32. Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
    The Inconvenient Skeptic at 02:45 AM on 2 November, 2010 "Another study from September showed that the isostatic adjustment from the last glacial period is causing the ice loss to be overstated by about double. So which is correct? The studies that give the higher results don't take the adjustment into account. Stating that the loss is 200+ Gt/yr as fact when there are “published” articles that give results that are half as much is a bit disingenuous." Do you know what is also disingenuous. Giving the impression you know what you're talking about when you don't. Adjustments for GIA are done to all grace and altimetry methods. This study you refer to (Wu et al. 2010), does it in a different way than before for Grace data. Is it better? Well it disagrees with the three other primary methods Radar interferometry, Altimetry and Previous Grace studies. In fact a new study (Sorensen et al. 2010) evaluates 4 different methods for estimating Greenland's mass balance using icesat's laser altimeter and concludes that the best estimate is 237 GT/year. The point here Mr. Kerr is that just because a study is the newest doesn't mean it is the best. The best way to verify results in science is to use multiple methods to measure ice trends. Another little note for you. Wu et al (2010) shows ice losses at the upper limit of IPCC estimates. I don't know how you skeptics call this good news?
  33. What should we do about climate change?
    Some of the issues with selling power back are simply consumer mindset. If they are paying say $0.12/kWh for electricity from the grid, then they expect to sell it back to the grid for the same price. On the other hand, grid companies cant why they have to pay retail price to get it back rather than the wholesale price that they pay large generators. Once this is understood, then if you can generate power cheaper than power company can supply it, then it makes sense to do so. Selling back excess generation then just becomes a bonus. A marginal proposition dependent on a sell-back price shouldn't be done. However, I can think of very few small-scale renewables where it is worth doing this. Economies of scale apply to renewables too. By the way, thanks to all contributing here. I am finding the arguments and references put up very interesting.
  34. Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
    "Greenland temperatures were the hottest on record." Is it possible to qualify this statement? From table GL1 I see lots of records being set in 2010 but mainly only at stations which begin records after 1949 (Nuuk would standout from this). In fact in terms of annual temperature records 1929 and 2005 might also be standout years. The longest records have many records set in the first half of the 20th C. I used KNMI Climate Explorer to plot Greenlands temp record (NCDC). 2005, 2007, 1943, 2008 and 1995 all seem hotter in Greenland than 2010. I think the statement above is a little misleading due to the poor presentstion of the temperature data in the report. It would have been very easy to simply present a temperature record for Greenland as a single line on a graph. If you did that then 2010 would be hot but wouldn't be the standout year suggested in the text. Why didn't they do that?
  35. gallopingcamel at 13:50 PM on 2 November 2010
    What should we do about climate change?
    archiesteel, For 30 years I have tried to sell power to the grid. I tried to find a house with a small stream with the idea of setting up a mini-hydro plant but failed to find the right site. Later, when living in windy New Jersey in a location with a genuine Dutch windmill nearby I was seeking planning permission to construct my own windmill but my company relocated me to.....Holland. My next failed project arose when I bought a house that had a buried 1,000 gallon propane tank. I planned to install a generator that would have produced electricity at $0.10/kVAh but the power company would only pay me $0.08/kVAh. There is better technology out there now that might do a better job than my generating plant but I sold that house. I had high hopes for fuel cells but we are still waiting. I am getting too old for building my own power systems so my advice to you is keep trying!
  36. What should we do about climate change?
    @Peter Lang: "They cannot because of, so far and probably always, insurmountable technical constraints (like the sun doesn't shine at night)." It seems our friend Peter is forgetting the Earth is a sphere. The sun is always shining *somewhere*. The wind is always blowing *somewhere*. Rivers are always running, and tides ceaselessly come and go. Again, the idea is not to shut out nuclear, but to use it along with renewables in a mixed solution. Oh well, I guess we'll have to agree to disagree.
  37. What should we do about climate change?
    Re: Peter Lang (254) Thanks for the answer to my question. It was...sufficient.
  38. What should we do about climate change?
    Peter, 242:
    CBDunkerson, "Also, 100% nuclear is NOT the only option (which is good since it isn't possible)." Who said anything about 100% nuclear?
    254:
    “And this task will require every energy source available: NPP, wind, solar, geothermal, tidal. All of them, in bulk quantities”. I do not agree.
    Congratulations on reformulating the Pareto Principle. You are not the first person I have talked with who pushed nuclear energy as The Solution to a problem they didn't acknowledge existed. It's actually quite common. What is your opinion on my cynicism? Is corner clipping a concern, especially in the regulatory environment you are advocating?
  39. Greenland ice mass loss after the 2010 summer
    @Don Gisselbeck: yep, that's the danger of some of the 'denialist' memes floating around - they enter the broad body of stuff that "everyone knows", despite being completely (and provably, in many cases) false. This is exactly what makes progress in climate action so difficult.
  40. What should we do about climate change?
    Daniel Bailey, Where you lost credibility with me was when you were challenged, several times, to elucidate your position on AGW and the dangers we face from human-produced, fossil-fuel-derived CO2 emissions. And failed to respond. I have decided I can be more effective, and get to a wider audience, if I stick to what I know something about. I’ll talk about cutting CO2 emissions, costs of doing so, security of supply etc, and leave others to join the dots in the way they want to. People have to be convinced of the graveness of the threat CO2 represents so they will want to leave the fossil fuels in the ground. I do not agree. That may apply to a few rich people who live in the concrete jungles and chatter (the chattering classes). Most people just want a life, the best life they can have. If nuclear electricity is cheaper than coal, as it could and should be, then no more coal power stations will be built (I agree there will be a transition period). If the Greens, Greenpeace, WWF, FOE, Australian Conservation Foundation came out and said it is urgent we go nuclear to cut CO2 emissions, the developed countries could gear up very quickly. Australia could have its first 1 GW NPP running before 2020 (even earlier if we really wanted to) and have all coal replaced by 2035 or 2040. Nuclear could and should be far cheaper than coal. It should be small and modular, made in factories, shipped to site and connected. It is not because of 40 years of the anti-nuclear propaganda that we see lots of on this (and other) web sites, togheter with a Lefties dream about renewable energy. Our CO2 emissions are far higher today than they would be if not for the success of anti-nuclear activists of the past 40 years. “And this task will require every energy source available: NPP, wind, solar, geothermal, tidal. All of them, in bulk quantities”. I do not agree. If we spend 80% of our effort, time and money on technologies that can provide only 5% to perhaps 20% of the solution (i.e. renewables), and spend only 0% to 20% of our time and effort on the technologies that can provide 80% to 95% of the solution (e.g. nuclear) then we waste all our wealth for no result. We are doing worse than this because, not only do we spend no effort, time, of funds on nuclear, we actually prohibit nuclear!
  41. What should we do about climate change?
    #243: "France built the nuclear generating capacity at the rate of about 3GW per year." For completeness, you should point out that France was going nuclear in the early '80s, well before: a. GHG levels were at the frightening levels they are today b. the anthropogenic source for GHGs was as clearly understood as it is today c. climate change was as clearly established as it is today d. wind and/or solar was a viable technology at all e. Chernobyl. There are choices and imperatives today that were not the case in the 80s. One has to see this French economic miracle you describe in context. That's neither pro nor con but it is necessary for a rational discussion. France has an almost 20% sales tax, many food products are from within France, thus the workers are paid a first world wage. Most of the big ticket items, health, education, child care, are subsided by the government, thus bring down their costs.
  42. What should we do about climate change?
    Peter Hogarth, Woops! Yes, that was a typo on hydro. I meant to say 0% to 15%. Sorry. I agree, that hydro is extremely valuable. It has fast response (0% to 100% power in about 75 seconds). The way hydro is used in France is ideal. It is following the load changes and can do so faster than fossil fuels or nuclear. A perfect match. Pumped hydro is ideal for matching with nuclear and coal, but not economic with intermittent renewables. You may be interested in this analysis of a possible pumped hydro scheme in the Australian Snowy Mountains. It would link existing reservoirs, provide up to 8 GW of power and store up to 50GWh of energy each day. If matched with 28 GW of nuclear capacity, the two together could provide the supply meet all the National Electricity Market's current demand. [Our demand (2007) was 33 GW peak, 25 GW average, 17 GW baseload in summer and 20 GW basload in mid winter.] Don't skip the reviewer's comments because this explains why pumped hydro can be economical when matched with a reliable, low cost power supply that provides consistent power through the times of low demand and then generates from storage during peak and shoulder periods. That is, it is used daily. Many comments on this thread are highly informative too. Regarding, the management of once-used-nuclear-fuel, quokka and I both addressed that on earlier posts on this thread. If there are questions on that, we can take it up again. I feel it is a trivial issue from a technical perspective (I agree it is a major pubic concern). The price of uranium and the volatility of it is irrelevant. The fuel makes up about 3% of the cost of electricity from nuclear. Double or quadruple the price of uranium and it makes no significant difference to the cost of electricity from nuclear. There is no shortage of uranium as there is for oil, so no reason to be concerned about escalating fuel prices. That is not where the threat to nuclear is. The threat to nuclear is from political activity and public disruption. It is the threat to the investors and, therfore, the invstment risk premium they require to encourage them to invest their money in it. It is worth keeping the increasing costs in perspective. The cost of wind farms rose 25% in Australia last year (that is part of an ongoing trend). The cost of solar thermal in the USA increased 30% last year (and, remember, that is for day time, summer time power only.) The costs of renewables are far higher than nculear when you compare aon a proerly comparable basis.
  43. DMI and GISS Arctic Temperatures: Hide the Increase?
    Great work as always Peter. Thanks!
  44. What should we do about climate change?
    Peter Lang wrote : "I wonder if they are using fear of climate change as a means to push their other left wing agendas. I think many people are concerned about this." Comments like this (and others you have posted over at BRAVE NEW CLIMATE and here - including your refusal to give your opinion on global warming) put you squarely in the corner of the so-called skeptics like Monckton, who see conspiracies (particularly left-wing/Marxist/Communist ones - delete as applicable) everywhere. In fact, it also very telling how some so-called skeptics make such a big thing on the nuclear-power issue - either to try to highlight differences among those who accept AGW ("Look, they can't even agree on energy production : how can we trust them on anything !"); or to try to regain some of their conservative, comfort-blanket ideology by forcefully pushing a nuclear agenda they see as being anti-green and anti-lefty. Unfortunately for you, Peter Lang, you are the best advertisement for the blinkered thinking behind the 'nuclear now, whatever' thinking. Thank you.
  45. What should we do about climate change?
    Peter Lang at 08:44 AM on 2 November, 2010 Your figures for hydro in France are a bit misleading (a typo?). Move the cursor on your nice link to the times of peak generation, Hydro will be around 15%. It plays a significant role in filling the base to peak load gap. The UK planned a similar scheme when Nuclear was "the answer" to the 70s oil crisis, and did actually build half of the intended pumped hydro capacity (about 10GWhr of energy storage). Economical large scale (or distributed small scale) energy storage would be a good aim, even for supplementing Nuclear, but especially for mitigating the intermittent nature of any significant contribution from solar/wind. "Economical" is the tricky bit. On the downside I note even France has still not resolved its high level nuclear waste storage problems and only recently has put a plan in place to open its first deep repository by 2025 (which is not yet licenced). Political problems are just as real as technical ones. The extreme price volatility of non-renewables (including Uranium) over the past few decades (and especially recently) is also not being factored in to the price comparisons and "economics" are notoriously short term. I am not against Nuclear, but the current build of Gen III reactors may run out of fuel before the end of their design life if current rates of use accelerate (going by the industries own figures). Current and Gen III build Nuclear is (in climate terms) a temporary measure but may be necessary short term to fuel the next transition, and it is what's next that interests me.
  46. What should we do about climate change?
    Re: Peter Lang It is with great interest that I have been following this thread. Over the course of your many comments I feel I have learned a great deal that I was unaware of in regards to NPP. I feel you have brought some valuable points to the table as well, challenging (from your point of view) the 'sacred cows' of green energy (wind and solar). Those in advocacy of wind and solar, on the other hand, have not been remiss in putting forth their positions as well. Makes for a lively debate and a good read by those of us in the background. Where I feel you have made your best mark, Peter, is when you challenged the perceptions and preconceptions of the advocates of wind and solar. However, the same lens of analysis can also be applied to your position as well. Where you lost credibility with me was when you were challenged, several times, to elucidate your position on AGW and the dangers we face from human-produced, fossil-fuel-derived CO2 emissions. And failed to respond. Either you feel it is a grave threat, or you don't. So what's the harm in stating your position on it? If, as Ann posits, it is a grave threat to humanity, then it's simply not good enough to remove restrictions on NPP and let the market replace coal-fired electrical power plants. People have to be convinced of the graveness of the threat CO2 represents so they will want to leave the fossil fuels in the ground. Or they will use it all. No matter how universal or cheap NPP becomes. Or solar. Or Wind. Or tidal or geothermal (did I leave any out?). To summarize Ann's point: In order to fully replace fossil fuel CO2 production, we have to educate the public & replace the world's fossil fuel energy sources at the same time. And this task will require every energy source available: NPP, wind, solar, geothermal, tidal. All of them, in bulk quantities. So you either believe in the dangers that CO2 represents, and are part of the solution, or you don't. So, Peter, which is it? The Yooper
  47. The Grumble in the Jungle
    Stephen Baines, thanks. Couple of points, though: 1. According to RealClimate it was the Sunday Times, not the Times. These are different papers though both are part of the Murdoch empire. 2. Just because the article has been retracted doesn't stop it being cited, though of course it might make it harder to link to. 3. The retraction is, though not strictly relevant to this post, of sufficient interest to be worth mentioning - particularly for those who come here via Google as a result of more recent citations of the article. Maybe instead of "An article in a British newspaper claimed..." it would better be "An article in the January 31st, 2010 edition of the British Sunday Times newspaper, subsequently retracted, claimed...". (I'm assuming here that the original publication date is the same as that given on the PDF linked from the RealClimate page.)
  48. What should we do about climate change?
    Peter Lang - An excellent question, I have no idea. They've done proof of concept work, I don't think they've published economic data. They're using full spectrum solar units - visible light goes into the photovoltaic conversion, the rest to heat their thermal cell to 750-950 degrees C to make the reaction possible. So solar utilization is excellent. But again as to cost, considering the need for lithium carbonate or (less efficiently) potassium carbonate, ??? Given the use, irregularity of sunlight would be irrelevant as long as the rate of CO2 removal over time was sufficient. It's also interesting in terms of (possibly) producing a possible carbon neutral fuel for transportation use. I think we're still a long way away from battery electric cars being generally practical.
  49. What should we do about climate change?
    Peter, My skepticism comes not from "scary nuclear" (OMG! Teh radiations!), but from a cynicism that the safety measures will be observed in a cost-cutting race for the short-term bottom line. This especially holds for pleads of "removing blocks and imposts". France still hasn't figured out what to do with the spent fuel waste, other than piling it together and watching it for an initial term of 300 years. That is not reasonable in my opinion. The 2005 WHO study is one of the works discussed by the 2009 NYAS study. Talking about "insurmountable technical constraints" does not give you the high ground to call others "irrational and unreachable".
  50. What should we do about climate change?
    KR, What is the cost per tonne CO2 avoided/removed?

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