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Comments 106701 to 106750:

  1. Despite uncertainty, CO2 drives the climate
    Joel, I find your argument that something which is the norm and which everybody is accustomed to is "misleading" very hard to swallow. Anyway the figure is from a peer-reviewed scientific paper and used in an Intermediate level rebuttal. In both cases the audiences should know how to read a simple graph, and if they don't, they can always ask.
  2. Despite uncertainty, CO2 drives the climate
    Not to sound overly reactive, but how often should we reset the baseline, Joel? Every year? And by your recommendation, why should the baseline not be set to any arbitrary year we choose, as opposed to 2010? What's so special about 2010 in the statistical record? The cynic in me imagines that trying to shorten the longitudinal perspective this way has an objective of comfort as opposed to cold-hearted assessment.
  3. Despite uncertainty, CO2 drives the climate
    #3. I know that is a common convention and it is always misleading, especially when you clip the graph out of context, so we don't know what the 0 degrees represents. You said "Note that even with the lower climate sensitivity, the model shows the planet warming 3°C by 2100 in this emissions scenario.". Did you mean 2010 or 1950-80? Most people reading it weren't born in 1950 and a lot of them weren't born in 1980 and are going to assume that you meant it was going warm 3 degrees between 2010 and 2100. If you can't re-normalize the data to the current year, then at least mark an X and label it 2010.
  4. DMI show cooling Arctic
    HumanityRules at 01:18 AM on 18 October, 2010 Thanks, I have corrected this now.
  5. DMI and GISS Arctic Temperatures: Hide the Increase?
    The Inconvenient Skeptic at 22:27 PM on 17 October, 2010 Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) is derived from detrended North Atlantic SST variation. So your point is regional SST and Surface air temperatures correlate? We would intuitively expect some correlation, but what is driving the SST in this area upwards (as we see if we leave the trend in) and what is driving the multidecadal variations? SST in the North Atlantic appears to be driven by a combination of atmospheric forcing and possible meridional heat transport. What is the source of this underlying increasing thermal energy in both cases? You may consider the facts that the North Atlantic SST variability is strongest at the surface and is also strongest at higher latitudes. I will try to get time to dig out recent work in this area, but here is some more inconvenience for you, as it does not appear that AMO leads surface temperature. If anything the reverse looks likely, though I would be cautious here. The AMO is de-trended North Atlantic SST from NOAA ESRL and I have de-trended the HadCRUT3 surface temperatures also to allow comparison.
  6. DMI and GISS Arctic Temperatures: Hide the Increase?
    TIS - can you explain to me your proposed mechanism by which the positive phase of the AMO manages to increase winter temperatures please? No problem explaining this of course within mainstream climate theory. Also, what is your calculation for increased heat flux from AMO and how does this compare with the increased radiation flux from GHG?
  7. Despite uncertainty, CO2 drives the climate
    Joel #2: It should be noted that the IPCC projected a range of different emissions scenarios. The point of using the high end A2 scenario in this writeup is presumably to show that even in such a 'worst case' scenario the possible mitigation effects of controlling these other pollutants are significant. That said, the A2 scenario actually projects 836 ppm at 2100, which is more than double the current 390 ppm and just over three times the 'historical baseline' value of 278 ppm. As others have noted, this is based on the assumption of continued industrial development around the world. You should also note that the 'population will stabilize between 9 and 10 billion' it is just one of a range of projections.
  8. Despite uncertainty, CO2 drives the climate
    #2: "To reach over 6ppm would require a big increase in average carbon output per capita" Isn't that what happens when developing nations develop? See Wikipedia: China, India, Vietnam, all have short doubling times for their per capita emissions.
  9. DMI and GISS Arctic Temperatures: Hide the Increase?
    barry at 23:21 PM on 17 October, 2010 Thanks for that. I've looked at the ERA-40 and the T511 model data in the approx eight month overlap period during 2002 and there is evidence of a small bias.
  10. DMI and GISS Arctic Temperatures: Hide the Increase?
    kwinters79 at 13:17 PM on 17 October, 2010 Thanks, fixed that.
  11. Despite uncertainty, CO2 drives the climate
    Joel, setting some part of the 20th century as the baseline for global temperature anomalies is the norm. That's what everyone does. And in a business as usual, high emissions scenario as employed in Figure 3, atmospheric CO2 will double from pre-industrial levels before 2100. You appear to be neglecting rather large developing countries like China and India. That's a rather large omission.
  12. Despite uncertainty, CO2 drives the climate
    A couple of things bother me about Figure 3. The first thing is that zero is not set to the temperature for 2010 or at least 2009, but for what looks about 1960. I'm currently reading "Proofiness" by Charles Seife and one of his first example of a misleading graph is setting the index at a place where the reader doesn't expect it. If you look at 2010, then the temperature increase is only a little over 2 degrees. It also looks like the graph assumes that CO2 will double between now and 2100. That would mean an average increase of about 4.3 PPM per year and increase of between 6 and 7 PPM per year by 2100. That seems questionable considering current demographic projections to the world reaching ZPG around 2040-50 and population stabilizing between 9 and 10 billion. To reach over 6ppm would require a big increase in average carbon output per capita, which also seems unlikely since most of the carbon hog countries are looking at declining population.
  13. Animals and plants can adapt
    @johnd: in order to invalidate *any* model, we'll need to have sustained greening over a significant area of the desert. It's a bit early to start calling out specific models. Your last paragraph is simply an attempt to invalidate climate models in general by introducing a bit of FUD about their precision. However, as the article clearly spells out, it is *North Africa* that is difficult to model. Models tend to agree a lot more about other regions, and there's no reason to believe that the models that eventually get it wrong on North African impact are any less accurate in the rest of their predictions. It seems to me you're fishing for a pretty convoluted argument, here.
  14. Animals and plants can adapt
    I think one of the points being made by the article goes back in part to what was quoted by archiesteel at 06:35 AM, that being "Half the models follow a wetter trend, and half a drier trend." Whilst some may feel that this greening is not causing problems for AGW, however it certainly must be causing some problems for some of the modelers. If anyone now accepts that the trend of increasing rainfall validates those half of all models that are predicting a wetter trend, then they must also be accepting that it also invalidates those other half of the models predicting a drier trend which obviously have been built around some rather incorrect assumptions. If those assumptions are now being found to be incorrect, which one must now be willing to accept in this particular case, then wherever the same assumptions have been inputted into other modeling makes those outcomes produced perhaps somewhat similarly suspect also.
  15. Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    @boba10960 #6 Do you know if the presentation by Dorthe Dahl-Jensen at icp10 is accessible as video anywhere?
  16. Animals and plants can adapt
    "Nevertheless that which has taken place,whilst not condemning outright AGW and its proponents, is however at odds with mass media output." As others have pointed out in different ways, Sahel greening will never "condemn" AGW outright or implicitly. You need to work on larger processes if you want to try to find evidence against a warming planet. If you want to be taken seriously, point to single instances, but do so by looking at the single instances within the context of the whole. "ie we haven't had any glowing reports of this (benign) change in the Sahel. When brought to the attention of Joe Public, invariably his first utterance is "Why haven't we heard of this?"(because he still depends for the most part, but increasingly suspiciously, on the mass media for his information)" Invariably? Where is your evidence for this response? And if you think mass media news is in collusion with climate science, you aren't paying attention. "I think you may have problems like this in the future. Time is wearing on, after all. Time was always a bit of a problem for soothsayers and fortune-tellers." Ahhh, the old "modeling a complex system is impossible" game. You do note that you're playing the game, too, yes? You make the implicit claim that the planet is not warming--and certainly not because of humans--because the Sahel is greening. And yet you make this claim without any sort of evidence. Soothsaying indeed! Don't be so provincial. The Sahel may be greening, but the oceans are dying and pine mountain beetles are munching my bloody pine trees.
  17. DMI show cooling Arctic
    In the advance article the trends in Fig5 are tenfold less than Fig6. Should that be per year?
  18. Uncertain Times at the Royal Society?
    Only a denier could read the RS report and deny that it supports the warmist position. And they will.
  19. DMI and GISS Arctic Temperatures: Hide the Increase?
    "peak positive excursions are being limited by the ice melt temperature in Summer." That's a key point, explaining the strange look of the seasonal buoy maps as well: Lots of red except in the summer, where one would have expected the most red. Can anyone with a shred of credibility see a cooling Arctic and a simultaneously melting Arctic?
  20. DMI and GISS Arctic Temperatures: Hide the Increase?
    I recently emailed DMI with a query about summertime temperatures and got a reply a couple of weeks ago. Here are the relevant bits. My comments are in italics.
    I am curious about the temperature profiles for the Arctic, 80 degrees North from 1958 to present... I have read quite a few studies on Arctic summertime temperatures indicating that the temperature trend for the region has been significantly positive over the last few decades. The University of Alabama satellite record maintained by Roy Spencer and John Christy has a trend of 0.47C/decade since 1979. I realize that the circle of the Arctic your graph covers is a smaller area than many other assessments of Arctic temperatures... ...would you be amenable to providing a brief reply? I plan to disseminate it responsibly, unless you state otherwise. 1) It would appear at a glance that summer time temperatures have increased little over the past few decades going by the DMI graph set. Do you hold this to be the case? From the link to WUWT, that you've attached below[*], it seems that a cooling temperature trend in the Arctic summer is present, throughout the past approximately 10 years. Where 'summer' is defined as the period where the +80N mean temperature is above 273K. However, I very much doubt that a simple conclusion can be drawn from that, as there are complicating aspects to that analysis, e.g.: 1) The surface in the +80N area is more or less fully snow and ice covered all year, so the temperature is strongly controlled by the melting temperature of the surface. I.e. the +80N temperature is bound to be very close to the melt point of the surface snow and ice (273K) and the variability is therefore very small, less than 0.5K. I am sure you will find a much clearer warming trend in the same analysis applied to the winter period. The winter period is more crucial for the state of the Arctic sea ice, as this is the period where the ice is produced and the colder the winter the thicker and more robust the sea ice will become. 2) The +80N temperature data after 2002 are based on the operational global deterministic models at ECMWF, at any given time. Before 2002 the ERA 40 reanalysis is used. I.e. the +80N temperatures are based on 4 different models, the model used for the ERA 40 data set and the operational models T511, T799 and T1279. The point is that there can be a temperature bias in one or more of the models, that can cause the lower temperature level since approximately 2002, where the shift between the ERA40 data and the operational model data occur in the WUWT-plot from the link below. 2) Can you help me understand what appears to be a discrepancy with other reports on Arctic temperature trends? I do not think one can give a general comment on that - i.e. such discrepancies have to be discussed in a 'case by case' manner 3) Are there any published studies done by DMI researchers on Arctic temperature trends - for reference? No - unfortunately, we have not had time to look deeper into this.
    * The WUWT link in my email was this one. http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/08/05/dmi-polar-data-shows-cooler-arctic-temperature-since-1958/ -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Looks like you've done a very good job, Peter. My correspondent was Gorm Dybkjær.
  21. The Inconvenient Skeptic at 22:27 PM on 17 October 2010
    DMI and GISS Arctic Temperatures: Hide the Increase?
    This article does show the weakness of the station data. 1200 km interpolation is not the best for analyzing the Arctic. Since 1979 the DMI and the satellite data are showing the same trends though. The strongest warming is taking place during the winter, but the summer is warming in the satellite data as well. The satellite trend is weak until 1997, but after 1998 the trend is clear. Of course 1998 is also the year the AMO went strongly into the warm phase and that makes distinguishing the cause of the warming very difficult. So I agree with the warming, just not the cause. It is too bad the DMI data does not extend back to 1930.
  22. DMI show cooling Arctic
    What a chewy article. Thanks, Peter!
  23. DMI and GISS Arctic Temperatures: Hide the Increase?
    Very interesting Peter! I haven't had the time to look into this myself, but once again our friend Steven Goddard has shown a severe lack of skeptical thinking and maintained his unbelievable ability to cherry pick.
  24. DMI show cooling Arctic
    It is also worth nothing that the DMI acknowledges the reality of rapid warming on their website about the Arctic: "Since the 1970s the extent of sea ice has been measured from satellites. From these measurements we know that the sea ice extent today is significantly smaller than 30 years ago. During the past 10 years the melting of sea ice has accelerated, and especially during the ice extent minimum in September large changes are observed. The sea ice in the northern hemisphere have never been thinner and more vulnerable."
  25. Animals and plants can adapt
    @AWoL: I'm sorry, I have a hard time understanding your point. The fact that AGW is apparently causing some greening of the Sahara desert due to increased rainfall is *not* an argument against AGW theory. I'm also unaware that the Sahara is often cited in Mass Media stories about AGW. Furthermore, this is another piece of evidence showing that AGW is real. I don't see how this could "cause problems" for AGW proponents. To the contrary, it goes to show that we are, in fact, having a serious impact on our environment through CO2 emmissions. I also don't get your comment about soothsayers and fortune-tellers. I suggest you stick to the science and not try to divine how public opinion will react to an observed greening of the Sahel.
  26. DMI and GISS Arctic Temperatures: Hide the Increase?
    Great article, but your trend line equations in Figure 3 are mislabeled or off by a factor of 10. They should either say yearly or the decimal point shifted right.
  27. Roger A. Wehage at 10:58 AM on 17 October 2010
    Climate Change Impacts on California Water Resources
    Some things don't make sense. In a 1944 treaty between the United States and Mexico, Texas was to take water from Mexico out of the Rio Grande and Arizona was to give water back to Mexico from the Colorado River. Arizona dumps a tremendous amount of water from the Colorado River on the ground to raise crops year-round, and a lot of it percolates through the sand to flow without fanfare back into Mexico where they can reuse it. But that hidden water doesn't count toward satisfying the treaty requirements, so the United States has installed an elaborate system of pumps and canals along the border between Arizona and Mexico to extract the groundwater and deliver it to Mexico. If the actual flow of groundwater into Mexico is already known, why not just renegotiate the treaty to avoid the expense (including CO2) of running pumps and the water distribution system? In either case that doesn't help California. Since Mexico has stopped shipping water to Texas (see first link above), maybe Arizona should reuse their recovered water, saving more of the Colorado River water for California. That would probably be a temporary fix, as the Colorado River is not immune to Global Warming.
  28. Animals and plants can adapt
    AWoL, situations such as you have illustrated in the Sahara will (have?) allow the more astute observers to bring together the rapidly accumulating knowledge of drought tolerant plant species suitable for agricultural exploitation, and the cyclic changes as they occur in various locations. Establishing deep rooted perennials that can tap into water reserves well below the surface, that also bring essential nutrients to the surface, will help re-establish ground cover leading to a rebuilding of the top soil and then to the expansion of the cropping or grazing into new areas. One of the limiting factors to plant growth in arid areas is the cold night temperatures, but with increased rain comes increased cloud cover that should see some improvement there. Much may be happening now, there are many enterprising advances happening that fly below the radar with research often trailing practice by a considerable margin due to the tendency to think laterally by those who have to contend in practice with the vagaries of nature and take whatever opportunities as they present themselves, even if it has not been peer reviewed.
  29. Animals and plants can adapt
    I wonder how any of our European readers feel about being so near the tip of the spear: From MacKenzie and Schiedek 2007: ... trends in surface temperatures in the North and Baltic Seas now exceed those at any time since instrumented measurements began in 1861 and 1880. Temperatures in summer since 1985 have increased at nearly triple the global warming rate which is expected to occur during the 21st century and summer temperatures have risen 2-5 times faster than those in other seasons. These warm temperatures and rates of change are due partly to an increase in the frequency of extremely warm years. The recent warming event is exceeding the ability of local species to adapt and is consequently leading to major changes in the structure, function and services of these ecosystems. [emphasis added] From Devictor et al. 2008: ... a 91 km northward shift in bird community composition, which is much higher than previous estimates based on changes in species range edges. During the same period, temperature increase corresponds to a 273 km northward shift in temperature. Change in community composition was thus insufficient to keep up with temperature increase: birds are lagging approximately 182 km behind climate warming.
  30. The sun upside down
    HumanityRules at 02:51 Also I can't get my head around what "could also be having, uncontributed effects." means? Yea, the "uncontributed" should be unattributed, a good reason why i shouldnt post at 5am... But what i mean is that with co2 being a net emitter (2:1)in the stratosphere, that its cooling effects could be having larger dynamical effects in the troposphere than previously believed. The interactions are complex, more so with O3 because its concentrations vary so much latitudinaly and vertically, but with increasing radiative cooling from elevated co2 it will further complex the matter. The main dynamic effects from stratospheric interactions with the troposphere are caused by temperature/pressure changes, and their effect on the air circulation/pressure systems in the troposphere... and then their effect on water vapor up take, condensation etc.
  31. Animals and plants can adapt
    AWOL I'm absolutely certain that there's some good news for some species aroung the place. I notice some of the things you refer to involve plants and animals moving to more congenial circumstances. Your example of an "exodus" leading to a good outcome is great for a historical example. But there are 2 problems for me there. One, such movements are now highly constrained by the hugs human population, and the effects of habitation and agriculture on grasslands and forests. Two, where I live the only way for existing animals to move is south - not many plants and animals will migrate inland to even more inhospitable conditions. Unfortunately, there's not a lot of south to move to. Unless someone's come up with a few generations evolution schema for land animals to imitate seals and penguins.
  32. Animals and plants can adapt
    Replying to ASteel Yes I take your points. Nevertheless that which has taken place,whilst not condemning outright AGW and its proponents, is however at odds with mass media output. ie we haven't had any glowing reports of this (benign) change in the Sahel. When brought to the attention of Joe Public, invariably his first utterance is "Why haven't we heard of this?"(because he still depends for the most part, but increasingly suspiciously, on the mass media for his information) I think you may have problems like this in the future. Time is wearing on, after all.Time was always a bit of a problem for soothsayers and fortune-tellers.
  33. Animals and plants can adapt
    @AWoL: I think Doug said it best. Climate models do disagree on N. Africa, and the article acknowledges this: "Even so, climate scientists don't agree on how future climate change will affect the Sahel: Some studies simulate a decrease in rainfall. "This issue is still rather uncertain," Haarsma said. Max Planck's Claussen said North Africa is the area of greatest disagreement among climate change modelers. Forecasting how global warming will affect the region is complicated by its vast size and the unpredictable influence of high-altitude winds that disperse monsoon rains, Claussen added. "Half the models follow a wetter trend, and half a drier trend." Whether it is increased desertification or a greening of some of its regions due to increased hydrological activity, however, it's hard no to see the effects of AGW at work. Obviously, the best outcome would be sustained greening, as this would introduce a vast new carbon sink, however it's unwise to count on this happening. Here is the direct link, if anyone is interested.
  34. Animals and plants can adapt
    AWoL - Here's the link to the Sahara Desert Greening Due to Climate Change article in National Geographic. The article appears to be based on Hickler et al 2005, "Precipitation controls Sahel greening trend". The article also (indirectly) points to Haarsma et al 2005, "Sahel rainfall variability and response to greenhouse warming" indicating increased Sahara rainfall of 1-2mm/day.
  35. Climate Change Impacts on California Water Resources
    This is not just a problem of the future: For several years I have driven on Interstate Highway 5 past Mount Shasta (14,179 ft / 4,322 m) in Northern California. Until recently the mountain was covered in snow year-round, and could be seen as a white cone from much of the Sacramento Valley north of the city of Sacramento. In the past few years this has not been the case. In August, 2009, the mountain was bare with only a couple of patches of snow near the summit (as seen from the south and west). Two weeks ago there was more snow, covering the top half of the mountain except for some large areas of bare rock. With the current La Niña event, we may hope for some precipitation this winter, but it is likely to be rain rather than snow in the Sierra. -- Bill, getting thirsty in the SF Bay Area.
  36. Animals and plants can adapt
    Sorry ASteel, haven't provided a direct link but if you refer to my earlier post on this subject I do give instructions as to how to reach it. Just checked it.Up and running.Don't go to the kids section for it ain't there. Yes it is probably massively compressed, but by a climate researcher who has been working in the region for 20yrs.....which was why I brought the matter to the attention of this forum. Google National Geographic, type "satellite greening" in the search box, then select title with "Sahara" in it.
  37. Animals and plants can adapt
    A reasonable thing to do would be to read articles by researchers rather than a massively compressed synopsis in a kid's magazine, AWoL. It's worth noting that climate models have a tough time w/predicting precipitation in N. Africa. If you read the literature, you'd know that. You'd also have some idea of the ease with which decadal natural variation can slew precipitation in the region of the Sahara. By the way, are you having some sort of trouble with your caps-lock key?
  38. Animals and plants can adapt
    @AWoL: it is common practice here to provide links to your sources. Do you have the link handy, so we can evaluate how accurate the NatGeo Kids article really is?
  39. Animals and plants can adapt
    Replying to Doug Bostrom, Like most folks I generally accepted that a battle against the encroaching sands was being lost, so the evidence of a reversal, especially in a magazine(kiddies?) as pro-AGW as Nat Geographic, came as a surprise. I am familiar with the PROJECTIONS and PREDICTIONS, and very plausible they sounded too. HOWEVER.....this report as to what is ACTUALLY happening on the ground, is at odds with that which was predicted. What would be a reasonable attitude towards people that make predictions, in your opinion, that don't come to pass?
  40. Animals and plants can adapt
    Africans will move to the Sahara? Problem solved? Rather than rely on some quotes from National Geographic Kids, better to delve into the literature and get the big picture, as usual. Here's a continental-scale review for Africa, a little long in the tooth but a good starting point: African climate change: 1900–2100 Continental-scale scenario for surface water: Changes in Surface Water Supply Across Africa with Predicted Climate Change Meanwhile, it's best to take changes on the timescale mentioned in National Geographic w/a grain of salt because of course there's always natural variability in play: The impact of decadal-scale Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies on Sahelian rainfall and the North Atlantic Oscillation
  41. Climate Change Impacts on California Water Resources
    Fascinating, thanks! There's a journalist by the name of John Fleck who makes somewhat of a specialty of water resources in the SW United States. His blog is worth checking in on from time to time.
  42. Animals and plants can adapt
    Good news,Adelady. Snippet from National Geographic:- "Desertification, drought, and despair—that's what global warming has in store for much of Africa. Or so we hear. Emerging evidence is painting a very different scenario, one in which rising temperatures could benefit millions of Africans in the driest parts of the continent. * Ancient Cemetery Found; Brings "Green Sahara" to Life * Exodus From Drying Sahara Gave Rise to Pharaohs, Study Says Scientists are now seeing signals that the Sahara desert and surrounding regions are greening due to increasing rainfall. If sustained, these rains could revitalize drought-ravaged regions, reclaiming them for farming communities. This desert-shrinking trend is supported by climate models, which predict a return to conditions that turned the Sahara into a lush savanna some 12,000 years ago" More info available at Nat Geographical website. Use their search button and key in"Satellite greening". Acacias spreading and thriving in Sudan. Nomads in Western Sahara say "We've never had it so good." As for rapidity of evolution. Check out Howard Bloom's website and in the black column on the left, click on"Instant Evolution:the effect of the city on human genes" He cites some thought - provoking examples of rapid evolution.
  43. The sun upside down
    Joe there seems to be heaps of stuff coming out of Colorado State about Stratosphere-Troposhpere interactions. See http://www.atmos.colostate.edu/ao/ResPapers/index.html Also I can't get my head around what "could also be having, uncontributed effects." means?
  44. Climate Change Impacts on California Water Resources
    Thanks Roger. I don't think California is a canary, I think it's a miner. We can't afford to lose California's agricultural productivity, which is just massive. There is a very good chance that climate change could lead to another Dust Bowl in the SW USA. And groundwater resources will no doubt be depleted in areas facing significant droughts. It's hard to say how California will be impacted, since the state will still receive a similar amount of precipitation. It depends on whether we manage to capture it successfully.
  45. Animals and plants can adapt
    #4. New beginnings? Just look at much of the Middle East. Large areas were once fertile crop producing lands supporting substantial populations in cities. Now the deserts, mostly caused by abandoning age-old water management practices, barely support an assortment of goats and lizards. Not a fruit tree or a grain crop in sight. There are similar places elsewhere in the world. Once lost, always lost. As for evolution taking care of the problem. Evolution for changed climate consitions takes many generations - maybe centuries, maybe millennia, maybe millions of years. The big difference for substantial impact on species this time round is the lack of places to go. Even where human population is sparse, the lands in question are surrounded by urban or agricultural developments inimical to the free movement and re-establishment of existing or changing species. Change *is* natural - when it occurs on natural time-scales. This time we're changing things in the space of a few human generations rather than a few thousand or million years.
  46. Despite uncertainty, CO2 drives the climate
    These two recent articles are sure to stimulate confusion: From Lacis, Schmidt et al: Noncondensing greenhouse gases, which account for 25% of the total terrestrial greenhouse effect, From Schmidt and Reudy et al: water vapor is the dominant contributor (∼50% of the effect), followed by clouds (∼25%) and then CO2 with ∼20% The other side doesn't bother with such detail; hence they can do a far better job of homogenizing their message.
  47. Roger A. Wehage at 00:18 AM on 17 October 2010
    Climate Change Impacts on California Water Resources
    Canary in the mineshaft? This is an excellent article. One might say that as California goes so does most of the western half of the United States. And let us not forget how the dust bowl of the 1930s impacted drought and heat in much of the United States. Could global warming be heading us into such conditions again? In addition to snowpack runoff, much of the country depends heavily on groundwater for irrigation and domestic use. What effect will increased drought and heat associated with global warming have on groundwater usage and replenishment?
  48. Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    Berényi Péter wrote : "OK, the Goracle is finished." I invoke the equivalent of Godwin's Law (Gore'dwins Law ?), which means that BP has lost the argument - whatever he was trying to argue !
  49. New temperature reconstruction vindicates ...
    I have read Ljungqvist's 2010 article and I think the approach is very similar to what Peter Hogarth did in the post Tai Chi Temperature Reconstructions I am curious to know if other people think the same?
  50. Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    Sorry, I take that back! John did mention Marc Morano. But John just quoted Morano. The problem I have with some of these Basic rebuttals are the Tone of the first paragraph or two. They often seem to be out to provoke before even getting to an explanation.
    Moderator Response: [Graham] Not provoke, but expose. Since my analysis (such as it is) consists of a single line in which I identify Morano's method - and since I believe that identification is strictly accurate - I believe it is both helpful and informative to expose the generic methods and agenda that lie behind specific examples. There is a constant trend by so-called skeptics to downplay or minimise the predicted effects of climate change, and these methods inevitably distort the science, or ignore it completely. By exposing both, I hope the open-minded reader will not only appreciate Morano's attempt to deceive, but be better equipped to recognise the greater pattern of deception in its many guises.

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