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Comments 106751 to 106800:

  1. Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    The problem is that some authors that are creating the basic rebuttals are bringing their own personal feelings into the articles, usually in the first paragraph or two. John Cooks original intermediate article did not mention Marc Morano and most people around the world don't care about him. There is a lack of discipline IMO in the review process.
  2. Climate's changed before
    You know how everyone is talking about if climate change is natural or man made, in both cases (or even in the combination of both) don't we need to adapt? Because isn't that what our ancestors (most of them) did when the climate changed?
    Moderator Response: See the Argument "It's Not Bad."
  3. Animals and plants can adapt
    When there is a end, there is always (mostly) a new beginning.
  4. Explaining Arctic sea ice loss
    Chris G #47 "Please put a thermometer in a glass of ice water, stir continually, and record the temperature every minute. Plot the temperature over time. The temperature will stay right at freezing, neither cooling nor warming, until the ice is gone. I'm not sure that I'm here to teach you basic physics." Where is your glass? In a steam room? In the oven? Definitely not in the freezer. If the ice is melting, the "system" is not in equilibrium, and therefore ambient heat must be entering the glass, the liquid water (a fluid) provides a path for convective heat exchange. Just for fun, lets turn the problem around and ask what conditions would be necessary to allow the ice in your glass to never melt as you are stirring it? Is this even possible? And as far as how this relates to the Artic... moving water should not help ice formation, even if that water is near freezing.
  5. Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    Berényi Péter I'm not sure why you come out with Ljungqvist here and not in the appropiate post, but at least you shoud have shown the original figure. You showed a modified verion of Ljungqvist fig 3 dropping the instrumental record. Showing the original would have been better. Alternatively, you could have shown how Mann's reconstruction has been "deconstructed" by showing them together, as can be found here. The relevant figure is this: Hiding the incline was not a good job, Péter, and not much deconstruction can be seen.
    Moderator Response: Everybody, please take this to the appropriate thread that Riccardo pointed to.
  6. Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    BP, you know the hockey stick is so 10 years ago... I think its well accepted now that the flatness of Mann's hockey stick was not the best representation of the world. That being said Mann hasn't done a hockey stick reconstruction in about 7 years so why don't you stick to current arguments instead of dragging up old ones. Yes there is climate variability on the millennial scale and yes there is undoubtedly some natural contributions to the warming since 1850 but to ignore the plethora of evidence which suggests (including empirical evidence) that we are amplifying the greenhouse effect to the point where it is/will have an affect on the climate, is at best disingenuous. Perhaps educate yourself by reading the following http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2004/12/myths-vs-fact-regarding-the-hockey-stick/ And on Soon's paper http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2005/01/peer-review-a-necessary-but-not-sufficient-condition/
  7. Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    BP, the more you defend Morano, the more your opposition appears political instead of scientific.
  8. Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    @BP: "Ah, you mean the Southern Hemisphere was cooler during the MWP than in the LIA?" No, I don't. I don't compare apples to oranges, either. By the way, Ljunqvist 2010 has this to say about Mann: "Our temperature reconstruction agrees well with the reconstructions by Moberg et al. (2005) and Mann et al. (2008) with regard to the amplitude of the variability as well as the timing of warm and cold periods, except for the period c. AD 300–800, despite significant differences in both data coverage and methodology." Also, why did you feel you needed to change the original graph? You didn't like how it showed instrumental record temperatures in 2000 already reached higher than the RWP and MWP? Could you elaborate on these points a bit more?
  9. Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    It is actually possible to see quite a bit of daylight between Morano and Gore. Equating the two doesn't really wash. Here's an example. Morano: Why does Eilperin fail to note that a top UN IPCC scientist, Mojib Latif of Kiel University in Germany told a UN conference earlier this month that he is now predicting global cooling for several decades and he admitted he was unsure how much the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) had impacted global temperatures in the past three decades. Latif: In an interview today, Dr. Latif told me “we don’t trust our forecast beyond 2015″ and “it is just as likely you’ll see accelerated warming” after then. Indeed, in his published research, rapid warming is all-but-inevitable over the next two decades. He told me, “you can’t miss the long-term warming trend” in the temperature record, which is “driven by the evolution of greenhouse gases.” Finally, he pointed out “Our work does not allow one to make any inferences about global warming.” That's transcendent spin on Moraon's part. He's got a long history of this sort of thing, necessarily so because it's his job to do produce hyperbole. Read more about Morano and Latif here. Morano's expertise is not only confined to climate science: "Morano, who worked as a producer in the mid-90s for radio commentator Rush Limbaugh, was also among the first reporters to write about the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth campaign scrutinizing Kerry's Vietnam War record. And earlier this year, Morano penned an article questioning the Purple Heart medals of Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa.), a leading critic of Bush's Iraq policy." Read more about Morano here at SourceWatch and then ponder if he and Al Gore are equivalently reliable.
  10. Berényi Péter at 10:25 AM on 16 October 2010
    Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    #21 archiesteel at 10:19 AM on 16 October, 2010 Ljungqvist 2010, which is about the Northern Hemisphere only (whereas Mann's "hockey stick" is about global temperature) Ah, you mean the Southern Hemisphere was cooler during the MWP than in the LIA? Interesting conjecture. Could you elaborate on it a bit more?
  11. Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    @BP, words like "Goracle" do nothing to help your flagging credibility, nor does brining up Ljungqvist 2010, which is about the Northern Hemisphere only (whereas Mann's "hockey stick" is about global temperature). I agree with others on this site. It seemed that once you were able to provide thoughtful analysis. Now, it's as if you're not even trying anymore.
  12. Berényi Péter at 10:08 AM on 16 October 2010
    Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    OK, the Goracle is finished. He just had such a tremendous influence on the public mind with statements about as definite like "if you put this stuff on your hair it could get up to 23.5% thicker", that this Morano guy could not help but attack him. And if Gore has neither responsibility, claim nor blame, neither has Morano. #12 Robert Way at 01:32 AM on 16 October, 2010 you cited Soon and Baliunas (2003) eventhough the aforementioned paper is widely discredited and resulted in the resignation of half the editorial board because it was published Now, let's be accurate. It was Morano who brought up Soon & Baliunas, not me. And it was gpwayne who brought up Morano. But you make me curious. How was this resignation story? And exactly what is wrong with that paper? Is there a sensible rebuttal? BTW, these MWP papers just keep coming, deconstructing Mann's broken hockey stick further. Geografiska Annaler Series A, Physical Geography Volume 92, Issue 3, pages 339–351, September 2010 DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0459.2010.00399.x A New Reconstruction of Temperature Variability in the Extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere During the Last Two Millennia Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist Instrumental record removed, spaghetti graphs are awful.
  13. Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    @BP: actually, Gore is right. *If* East Antarctica was to go, sea levels would go up dramatically. He's not predicting it will in the near future, but simply states what such an extreme scenario would entail. Is it manipulative? A little, sure. Is it false? No, it isn't.
  14. Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    The only rational response to Berényi Péter's latest descent into skeptical irrelevance is the last sentence of the thread he links to : To invoke Gore is a way to obfuscate about climate science, for which Gore has neither responsibility, claim nor blame. To anyone who doesn't know the whole story, New Scientist goes into more detail : Gore does not explicitly say that Greenland's ice will disappear in the immediate future, merely that coastal areas will be dramatically flooded very soon. That point aside, there is...some debate over how quickly the ice caps and Greenland in particular could melt.
  15. Berényi Péter at 08:32 AM on 16 October 2010
    Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    #14 KR at 01:46 AM on 16 October, 2010 Strawman arguments about 20ft theoretic rises from complete melting that nobody is predicting Of course. No sane person would predict such a thing. But watch this (starts at 1:42), directly from the guy who used to be the next president of the United States. "The Arctic is experiencing faster melting. If this were to go [points to map of East Antarctica], sea level worldwide would go up twenty feet. This is what would happen in Florida. Around Shanghai home to forty million people, the area around Calcutta sixty million. Here is Manhattan. The Word Trade Center Memorial would be under water. Think of the impact of a couple of hundred thousand refugees and then imagine a hundred million. [caption: NOTHING IS SCARIER THAN THE TRUTH]" One should ask Is Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth accurate? Dr Stott, the Defendant's expert, is right when he says that: "Al Gore's presentation of the causes and likely effects of climate change in the film was broadly accurate." (Rebuttal written by gpwayne. Last updated on 7 October 2010) Yes, twenty feet is broadly accurate. If a strawman says so, it must be true. It is substantially founded upon scientific research and fact, albeit that the science is used, in the hands of a talented politician and communicator, to make a political statement and to support a political programme. Al Gore is a successful politician who presented a film, his training and experience suitable to the task. To invoke Gore is a way to obfuscate about climate science, for which Gore has neither responsibility, claim nor blame.
  16. ClimateWatcher at 07:35 AM on 16 October 2010
    Explaining Arctic sea ice loss
    Sorry, better links to the above references: MPG animation of Arctic sea ice PDF of the published research paper
  17. ClimateWatcher at 07:28 AM on 16 October 2010
    Explaining Arctic sea ice loss
    To understand the Arctic Sea Ice, follow the multi-year ice ( the whiter shaded areas ): http://seaice.apl.washington.edu/IceAge&Extent/Rigor&Wallace2004_AgeOfIce1979to2007.mpg Notice how the Multi-year ices is flushed out into the Arctic. The paper is here: http://seaice.apl.washington.edu/IceAge&Extent/Rigor&Wallace2004.pdf
  18. ScienceIsAwesome at 06:37 AM on 16 October 2010
    Skeptical Science housekeeping: Comments Gluttony
    I know this is somewhat off-topic, but given that this isn't a topical thread, I'll risk it. I just had to register to let you know what a fantastic site you have here. I love the multiple levels of explanation that enable us laypeople to get succinct answers, and then dig deeper into the issue to whatever extent we can.
  19. Philippe Chantreau at 05:27 AM on 16 October 2010
    Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    Digging in these references does not bring up much support for Morano's confused denial, except perhaps from the Soon/Baliunas or Morner pieces... Although his influence on the public is significant, I don't see why would anyone interested in the real science of the climate pay attention to what Morano says. He is a political operative, not of very high level, with an understanding of science in general that is strictly limited to how it can fit in his political designs. That much is obvious from his selection of references that actually lend little or no support to his argument but can appear, on the surface, to run counter to the consensus model of Earth climate. They were selected based on that superficial appearance. His argument is transparent and of no interest whatsoever. It has no place in any kind of scientific debate. Morano's opinion is null and void as far as I'm concerned.
  20. The sun upside down
    My link didnt work, try this one
  21. The sun upside down
    giancarlo at 02:22 AM What this paper is suggesting, if these trends are not anomalous, is that the solar effects on the stratosphere maybe what is driving the cyclic climatic responses to the solar cycle, Riccardo has linked two papers on the subject at 19:12 PM on 13 October, 2010 , and i also linked one at 09:15 AM on 12 October, 2010 . But the stratospheric effects themselves are not new, Ramanthan and Dickenson 78 This could potentially be far reaching, if the dynamical responses from stratospheric cooling from UV have been having a greater effect than believed, it could also mean that anthropogenic O3 destruction, and co2 cooling of the stratosphere could also be having, uncontributed effects. This is wild speculation, but thats what blogs are for ;-)
  22. The sun upside down
    giancarlo no one could have thought in terms of what if it's true. There's no answer at the moment to the question of how to explain much of what we know about the solar influence on climate. My guess is that people will look harder at the impact of UV, apparently the only thing left in phase with the total solar irradiance (TSI). But it's just a guess, I'd better say I don't know. The TSI has been directly measured only in the satellite era. There are proxy for it, sun spots, radio frequency emission, magnetic field, radioactive nuclei formation, etc. None of them has spectral capabilities, it all stands on what we know about the link between the proxy and the spectral changes of the sun irradiance. The answer to the spectral changes issue will probably come from future measurments more than from reconstructions of the past.
  23. Explaining Arctic sea ice loss
    @RSVP: "this difference of opinion would be tolerable if humanity didnt have to make some important choices." Actually, humanity needs to wean itself of fossil fuels anyway. There is tremendous economic opportunity in renewable energy. Why do you think China is already becoming a leader in that area, while the US lags behind due to the Oil interests muddying the debate?
  24. Antarctica is gaining ice
    Actually Slimboy it would be better if you sourced your entire comment. You do a back-of-the-envelope calculation, lay out a bunch of speculation and expect to be persuasive? Not up to snuff.
  25. Antarctica is gaining ice
    Slimboy, how about redoing the last paragraph of your comment except this time w/sources?
  26. Explaining Arctic sea ice loss
    RSVP this CO2 affair is really not so much a matter of population dynamics as it is the unfortunate physical dynamic effects of our quite naturally seizing and using what appeared to be a eerily wonderful and even anodyne tool, one with several faces, a substitute energy source that I'll note in many places helped somewhat to arrest our breathtaking destruction of forests. Lately we've learned that certain physical side-effects of using this tool are incompatible with the systems over which our culture is draped. Now we need another substitute energy source. This is just part of growth, it's inevitable, really, and we should actually welcome it. The question is, will we use the ever-shrinking and increasingly hazardous lever we found in the 19th century to lift us to where we need to be in the 21st century? A topic for another thread, I think...
  27. Mikko Virtanen at 02:47 AM on 16 October 2010
    Climate scientists respond to Monckton's misinformation
    "Why wasn't this done years ago?" I'd like to remind you of the existence of Complaint to Ofcom Regarding “The Great Global Warming Swindle” from 2007, which was "organised by three concerned citizens and was co-authored and peer reviewed by a group of 20 people. Some of the world’s most respected and experienced climate scientists, including former IPCC chairs and co-chairs, were involved, as were distinguished experts in epidemiology, entomology, economics, the media and renewable energy." As we know, “The Great Global Warming Swindle” was full of denier arguments, and this response goes through the film line by line, graph by graph, lie by lie. I still consider it a very nice resource. It's great that there is this new effort, but the old one is still worth remembering too!
  28. The sun upside down
    Hi evrybody, I am Giancarlo, this is my first post. Even though I am an astronomer, and I worked, among the other things, on chromospheric activity in solar-type stars, there are many things on the topic I have no idea of, I hope my question is not too naive. If the data from the satellite confirm the "upside down effect" on the long period of time, that would be quite puzzling, wouldn't it? How could you explain the results by Solanki, of a correlation between cycle-averaged solar activity and the temperature? I read somewhere in this website that the global warming of anthropic origin characterizes itself as the time in which solar energy input and earth temperature start following different trends, constant the former and increasing the latter. But before a few decades ago the two quantities were closely related. Did I get it right? How did they measure the solar energy input in the optical range in the past time? And how could you explain the fact that, on top of the golobal warming trend, there is a cycle that closely match the solar activity cycle? http://www.skepticalscience.com/solar-cycles-global-warming.htm In this case, there would be a delay in the effect that solar energy has on terrestrial temperature. This was also mentioned in #9
  29. Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    Looking at the Morano post puts me in mind of the Most Used Skeptic Arguments - it's like a rundown of the most common denials. * "It's not warming" * "Climate has varied before" * Stating that Greenland survived the last interglacial without noting that even a fraction of Greenland melting would cause considerable sea rise * Strawman arguments about 20ft theoretic rises from complete melting that nobody is predicting * "Models are unreliable" Not to mention the poor scholarship from Mörner and the discredited Soon/Baliunas article, as Robert Way points out.
  30. Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    Berényi - Never mind, I see that you've just copied the Morano references to this thread.
  31. Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    I'm sure he had reasoning to feel the way he did but lets be honest here, you cited Soon and Baliunas (2003) eventhough the aforementioned paper is widely discredited and resulted in the resignation of half the editorial board because it was published. Is this the evidence that Morano was using to support his thesis? Awful convenient of you to bring up that study.
  32. Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    Berényi - That's 15 references, from all over the place; the AR4 SYR Synthesis report (known to be underestimates of current conditions), Climate Research and E&E papers by Soon arguing against the hockey stick (my apologies, I cannot take Soon or those two journals seriously based on their history), the Howat et al Science article indicating higher than expected variability in Greenland glacier speeds, the Monaghan et al Science article indicating that Antarctic precipitation has not increased as expected (bad news for Antarctic mass balance, quite frankly), and so on. That's quite a shotgun blast of articles. Could you perhaps indicate what they point to? How they support Morano's statements? Because they seem to be all over the map to me, and presenting links without commentary isn't all that useful.
  33. Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    Marc Moreno's usage of the term "global warming" is representative of a frequent and intentional effort by AGW Denialists to confuse and obfuscate the issues surrounding the current, ongoing episode of warming, which is interpreted to be largely anthropogenic in origin. It makes it sound as if the present warming is no different from episodes of warming that have occurred in the Earth's past. Yes, Earth's climate has changed significantly in the past in response to natural processes; however these changes generally occurred over much longer time frames, and although they were evidently enhanced by increased atmospheric CO2 (in Pleistocene to Recent glacial cycles, at least), they were not initiated by CO2. Greenland temperatures warmed during the mid-Twentieth Century, but again, this was evidently not driven by anthropogenic GHGs. The present episode of warming, which is popularly referred to as "global warming" (a term which the IPCC neither uses nor defines) is being driven largely by the build-up of anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. As we can potentially control these, we can potentially influence ongoing climate change. At the same time, the title of the current discussion, which refers to "stopping" climate change, is open to valid skeptical criticism. Even if we can successfully reduce the impact of anthropogenic forcing on climate, this will not eliminate the effects of natural forcings, which will continue to play a role, albeit over a much longer time frame.
  34. Explaining Arctic sea ice loss
    @ RSVP at 03:52 AM on 15 October, 2010 Please put a thermometer in a glass of ice water, stir continually, and record the temperature every minute. Plot the temperature over time. The temperature will stay right at freezing, neither cooling nor warming, until the ice is gone. I'm not sure that I'm here to teach you basic physics. Also, please try to understand the difference between Doug's statement, that CO2 is what is changing now that is driving the changes observed in the sea ice, and your statement, and your statement that in order for that to be true, the changes should be symmetrical. You can probably find more information under the topic on the left, 'Antarctica is gaining sea ice'. Also, feel free to use Google Scholar and search for 'antarctic sea ice'.
  35. Berényi Péter at 01:05 AM on 16 October 2010
    Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    Posted by gpwayne on Friday, 15 October, 2010 at 14:59 PM Climate change skeptics like Marc Morano employ gross exaggeration to dismiss or diminish the potential disruption that climate change is likely to bring about. In the Inhofe EWP press blog, Morano made much of this statement [...] That blogpost is more than three years old, dated 9:39 AM ET, July 30, 2007. Latest Scientific Studies Refute Fears of Greenland Melt Posted By Marc Morano What he says is not entirely unsupported. For the sake of fairness you could at least dig up references from that post or peer reviewed literature backing them.
    1. Annals of Glaciology Volume 46, Number 1, October 2007 , pp. 209-214(6) DOI: 10.3189/172756407782871558 20th-century glacier fluctuations on Disko Island (Qeqertarsuaq), Greenland Jacob C. YDE & N. Tvis KNUDSEN
    2. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS VOL. 33, L11707, 5 PP., 2006 doi:10.1029/2006GL026510 Greenland warming of 1920–1930 and 1995–2005 Petr Chylek, M. K. Dubey & G. Lesins
    3. Science 11 November 2005: Vol. 310. no. 5750, pp. 1013 - 1016 DOI: 10.1126/science.1115356 Recent Ice-Sheet Growth in the Interior of Greenland Ola M. Johannessen, Kirill Khvorostovsky, Martin W. Miles & Leonid P. Bobylev
    4. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH VOL. 111, D11105, 2006 doi:10.1029/2005JD006810 Extending Greenland temperature records into the late eighteenth century B. M. Vinther, K. K. Andersen, P. D. Jones, K. R. Briffa & J. Cappelen
    5. Science 16 March 2007: Vol. 315. no. 5818, pp. 1559 - 1561 DOI: 10.1126/science.1138478 Rapid Changes in Ice Discharge from Greenland Outlet Glaciers Ian M. Howat, Ian Joughin & Ted A. Scambos
    6. Science 6 July 2007: Vol. 317. no. 5834, pp. 111 - 114 DOI: 10.1126/science.1141758 Ancient Biomolecules from Deep Ice Cores Reveal a Forested Southern Greenland Eske Willerslev, Enrico Cappellini, Wouter Boomsma, Rasmus Nielsen, Martin B. Hebsgaard, Tina B. Brand, Michael Hofreiter, Michael Bunce, Hendrik N. Poinar, Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Sigfus Johnsen, Jørgen Peder Steffensen, Ole Bennike, Jean-Luc Schwenninger, Roger Nathan, Simon Armitage, Cees-Jan de Hoog, Vasily Alfimov, Marcus Christl, Juerg Beer, Raimund Muscheler, Joel Barker, Martin Sharp, Kirsty E. H. Penkman, James Haile, Pierre Taberlet, M. Thomas P. Gilbert, Antonella Casoli, Elisa Campani & Matthew J. Collins
    7. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report 3.2.1 21st century global changes Table 3.1. Projected global average surface warming and sea level rise at the end of the 21st century.
    8. The Holocene 12,1 (2002) pp. 49–58 DOI: 10.1191/0959683602hl519rp A mid-Holocene shift in Arctic sea-ice variability on the East Greenland Shelf Anne E. Jennings, Karen Luise Knudsen, Morten Hald, Carsten Vigen Hansen & John T. Andrews
    9. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS VOL. 32, L17605, 4 PP., 2005 doi:10.1029/2005GL023740 One more step toward a warmer Arctic Igor V. Polyakov, Agnieszka Beszczynska, Eddy C. Carmack, Igor A. Dmitrenko, Eberhard Fahrbach, Ivan E. Frolov, Rüdiger Gerdes, Edmond Hansen, Jürgen Holfort, Vladimir V. Ivanov, Mark A. Johnson, Michael Karcher, Frank Kauker, James Morison, Kjell A. Orvik, Ursula Schauer, Harper L. Simmons, Øystein Skagseth, Vladimir T. Sokolov, Michael Steele, Leonid A. Timokhov, David Walsh & John E. Walsh
    10. GLOBAL WARMING Notes on Climate Change Syun-Ichi Akasofu
    11. Earth and Planetary Science Letters Volume 207, Issues 1-4, 28 February 2003, Pages 13-22 doi:10.1016/S0012-821X(02)01155-X Modern spectral climate patterns in rhythmically deposited argillites of the Gowganda Formation (Early Proterozoic), southern Ontario, Canada Gary B. Hughes, Robert Giegengack & Haralambos N. Kritikos
    12. Global and Planetary Change Volume 40, Issues 1-2, January 2004, Pages 177-182 Global Climate Changes during the Late Quaternary doi:10.1016/S0921-8181(03)00108-5 New perspectives for the future of the Maldives Nils-Axel Mörner & Michael Tooley
    13. CLIMATE RESEARCH Vol. 23: 89–110, 2003 Proxy climatic and environmental changes of the past 1000 years Willie Soon & Sallie Baliunas Energy & Environment doi: 10.1.1.124.3216 Reconstructing climatic and environmental changes of the past 1000 years: a reappraisal (2003) Willie Soon, Sallie Baliunas, Craig Idso, Sherwood Idso & David R. Legates
    14. Science 11 August 2006: Vol. 313. no. 5788, pp. 827 - 831 DOI: 10.1126/science.1128243 Insignificant Change in Antarctic Snowfall Since the International Geophysical Year Andrew J. Monaghan, David H. Bromwich, Ryan L. Fogt, Sheng-Hung Wang, Paul A. Mayewski, Daniel A. Dixon, Alexey Ekaykin, Massimo Frezzotti, Ian Goodwin, Elisabeth Isaksson, Susan D. Kaspari, Vin I. Morgan, Hans Oerter, Tas D. Van Ommen, Cornelius J. Van der Veen & Jiahong Wen
    Moderator Response: [Graham] Fine example of the Gish Gallop. And Soon and Baliunas, E&E - you have a fine sense of humour - at least, I hope that's your intention. As for 'fairness', as soon as Morano adopts such values, I'll be pleased to follow his example.
  36. An underwater hockey stick
    More hockey-sticks/statistics from Richard L Smith (Statistical and Applied Mathematical Sciences Institute, Research Triangle Park, N.C. and Department of Statistics and Operations Research, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill). In this discussion, we use principal components analysis, regression, and time series analysis, to reconstruct the temperature signal since 1400 based on tree rings data. Although the "hockey stick" shape is less clear cut than in the original analysis of Mann, Bradley and Hughes (1998, 1999), there is still substantial evidence that recent decades are among the warmest of the past 600 years. The results support an overall conclusion that the temperatures in recent decades have been higher than at any previous time since 1400. On the other hand, none of the recent reconstructions shows as sharp a hockey stick shape as the widely reproduced Figure 3(a) of MBH 1999, so in that respect, critics of the hockey stick are also partially vindicated by these results.
  37. Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    Hey, thanks for that comment boba10960. It will be interesting to see if that SLR estimate from Dutton's presentation (8-10 m) holds up. Re: the WAIS, there is evidence that it has collapsed during at least one previous interglacial (Scherer et al. 1998). The authors speculate that MIS 11 is a likely candidate but if global sea levels really were at +8-10 m during the last interglacial one would think that the WAIS would be the most likely source for the additional water. I don't think its extent is as well constrained as Greenland's is.
  38. Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    There is a bit more detail about the Pleistocene history of the Greenland ice sheet in this post: The Past and Future of the Greenland Ice Sheet There is good evidence (from both ice cores and models) that (a) the ice sheet was smaller during the last interglacial [MIS-5e], but (b) it did not melt away completely. Otto-Bliesner (2006) shows the following modeled comparison of the extent of the ice sheet then and now: Modeled configuration of the Greenland Ice Sheet today (left) and in MIS 5e (right), from Otto-Bliesner (2006). The reduction in size of the ice sheet during MIS 5e probably added 3-4 m to global sea levels, which accounts for about half of the 6+ m total rise in sea levels during that interglacial (Alley 2010). For what it's worth, the Greenland ice sheet appears to mostly or entirely have disappeared during an earlier interglacial (MIS-11, around 400,000 years ago) that is considered to be the best analog for our current interglacial. I'm not sure whether the different extents of the ice sheet in MIS-11 vs MIS-5e was due to its longer duration (MIS-11 was a particularly long interglacial), warmer summers in Greenland, a combination of both, or something else.
  39. The sun upside down
    HumanityRules in my comment #26 you'll find two references about the impact of UV changes. We need to know how the solar spectrum varies and indeed we already knew a lot, though not all. This new paper open the possibility of some undected (occasional?) changes, but before using the word "probably" I'd read again the caveats I quoted.
  40. Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    There were two relevant talks on this topic presented at the Tenth International Conference on Paleoceanography in San Diego last month. http://icp10.ucsd.edu/ First, I assume that "Earth’s last period of global warming" in Morano's quote refers to the last interglacial period about 125,000 years ago. The latest estimates place global average temperatures at that time about 2°C above today's temperature, so that period is very relevant conditions that lie ahead. This time period was the topic of the two presentations I refer to. One speaker (Dorthe Dahl-Jensen, Niels Bohr Institute, Copenhagen, Denmark) used results from all existing ice cores in Greenland to conclude that the amount of ice that survived the warmer conditions roughly 125,000 years ago was about half the current volume of ice. So, in this sense the Morano statement is correct, but the Greenland ice that did melt contributed about 3 to 4 meters of sea level rise. The second speaker (Andrea Dutton, Australian National University, Australia) presented evidence that eustatic (global average) sea level during the last interglacial period was 8 to 10 meters greater than today, rather than 5 to 6 meters greater, as previously thought. If both speakers are correct, then the simplest interpretation of their findings is that the west Antarctic ice sheet, which is much more sensitive to melting than the east Antarctic ice sheet, was almost completely gone during the last interglacial period. That is, global average warming of about 2°C, 125,000 years ago, led to the complete loss of the west Antarctic ice sheet and to the loss of about half the Greenland ice sheet. It will be very interesting to see if further research supports these findings.
  41. Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    HR: Information on the negative mass balance trend of the East Antarctica ice sheet can be found here.
  42. Explaining Arctic sea ice loss
    RSVP #45 "Our difference lies in the assumed mechanism" You mean "hypothesised mechanism". And doug's hypothesis has much support, while yours has pretty much been chucked in the gutter, but being a zombie hypothesis, the so-called-climate-sceptics recycle ad infinitum in the hope that it will eat our brains!
  43. Explaining Arctic sea ice loss
    To doug_bostrom: I would not argue at all that the pace of change in the Artic is due to the effects of unprecedented human growth. Our difference lies in the assumed mechanism, and this difference of opinion would be tolerable if humanity didnt have to make some important choices.
  44. Explaining Arctic sea ice loss
    Thanks for the compliment, RSVP. The reason for the conclusion is the same as the requirement for the article; skeptics struggle to explain the demise of Arctic sea ice as a natural phenomenon. After a look at the latest research on the topic including Polyak's massive meta-analysis it appears quite clear that today's loss of ice is novel and related to anthropogenic CO2. The final paragraph is a brief summary of a brief article. There's no other way to say it, really.
  45. Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    @johnd: you seem to be confusing ice ages with glacial periods. We are in fact still in an ice age, as ice exists on the globe. We are, however, in an interglacial period, i.e. one of the warm periods of the current ice age.
  46. Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    It seems like you're first two paragraphs puts the rest of the article completely in the realm of speculation and fantasy. And then I was knocked a little sideways by that sudden jump from Greenland to global. Any evidence the EAIS is going anywhere? I hope it's not wrong to assume that with the 1% and 99% examples you were simply plucking numbers out of thin air? In relation to the bold statement at the bottom of your article it's worth considering that 1% isn't the lowest possible limit. How's about o.1% or even 0.0001%? I'm not saying either of these are relevant on any real world time scale but it's also possible that rates of melt maybe so low as to be NOT very disruptive as well.
  47. Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    Defining an end (or start) to a glacial could likely be done by defining a limiting multiple for the pace of global warming (or cooling) exceeding the forcing from Milankovich cycles alone. This though would lead to extensive intermediate periods between 'stable milankovich climates', the current of which began by AGW. I've no reference for this though, as it seems too evident a definition, maybe no one has done that. An easy thesis subject for someone who wants to quarrel with the denialists for the rest of their existence?
  48. The sun upside down
    Just read the moderator response to #34. Hopefully these responses won't go the way of cloa513. At least some of this is on topic I think ;) 20.muoncounter Not with any wish to defend that guy he does qualify that statement by saying "in the DMI database". And that still doesn't really prove this is a dominant idea amoung sceptics. But you're right the title is mis-leading. The few times I've posted on WUWT have often been around Goddard ignoring the longer term arctic ice history in favour of describing short term conditions. 21.Daniel Bailey I find most of what Monbiot writes unpleasantly misanthropic myself. But there's a strange process going on with climate science journalists ATM. Richard Black was critisised on Joe Rohm's website, unnecessarily in my view. Revkin has been disowned (was that Rohm as well?). It strikes me as a dangerous process, alienating prominant voices in the media because they don't match one's own extreme position. It looks like the action of a zealot to me and counterproductive in building a consensus. If I was an warmist I'd be more concerned about Rohm than I would about the journalists. [sarc on]Apart from being in the pay of big oil of course [/sarc off] why would much of the criticism from the 'lukewarmer' climate scientists be around the poor handling of uncertainty by the IPCC? 22.Phila It seems perfectly reasonable to critise the overcertainty around theories based on the present incomplete data while at the same time demanding greater certainty presumably by getting some better data in the future. Given that CO2 is a GHG then it strikes me that AGW has to be considered as one explanation of what's been measured these past few decades but I don't think it's the only possible explanation. 23 Doug You seem to be ignoring the role of advocate-scientists in this process. Schmidt, Schneider, Hansen and many more (of course we shouldn't neglect those batting for the other side). These people choose to cross the boundary between scientist and messenger. They seem to break the rules you describe. What do you think their role is? Just as an example I can't find any strongly expressed caveats in this new paper which is making an extremely strong scientific statement about climate science in a very prominent science journal. What do you think should be the important caveats in this work? Or do you think there should be none? (the ealier vagueness was an attempt not to go OT, it hasn't worked.) 24.Riccardo So what would be the results on the rest of the climate system of affecting the stratosphere in a not negligible way? Now that we know about the variation in the spectrum it's probably not good enough just to look at TSI in order to see the impact of solar variation on the climate. We need to know how the solar spectrum is varying and how those variations interact to impact on climate. This paper just seems to describe some possible first order affacts (i hope that's the right use of the term). Would you agree with that?
    Moderator Response: Since we didn't stop the off topic discussion earlier, I'll let your concise (thank you) response stay. But everybody please take further off-topic comments to other threads.
  49. Skeptical Logic Can't Save Greenland Ice - for that you need to stop climate change
    Not exactly on topic, but none the less relevant in light of the statement referring to "the last period of global warming", is there any defined point at which it can be declared as the beginning of an ice age, or an ending? Would an ice age only be declared as having ended when all the ice sheets have melted? With still a considerable number of glaciers of immense size existing, are we still in fact in what would be defined as an ice age? When statements such as "the last period of global warming" or the last ice age are being used, there should be some criteria that defines ice ages so that it is clear whether the period being referenced is within an ice age or not.
  50. Explaining Arctic sea ice loss
    doug_bostrom #42 The article is well written, and should serve as a vehicle for further discussion. The last paragraph is an invitation for anyone who is'nt fully convinced that everything would go back to normal if the atmosphere's CO2 concentrations returned to their pre-industrial levels, or that this is what mainly caused this situation in the first place. On the other hand, if the link between CO2 and Artic melting is so conclusive and significant, why is this tossed in at the last minute?

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