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RedBaron at 08:41 AM on 4 June 2019Climate's changed before
@TVC15,
Don't be so sure about that. While humans have huge destructive capacity, we also have tremendous creative capacity too.
You are right about just dropping emissions to zero won't be enough. That's been in the IPCC models all along. But the carbon cycle is just that...a cycle. There are two sides to balance. While reducing emissions can't work alone, the other side of the carbon cycle is sequestration. And it only takes about a 10% improvement on the natural carbon cycle sequestration side worldwide to offset emissions.
So while it is controversial still, we actually do have the capacity to improve the long term sequestration side of the carbon cycle at the same time as we reduce emissions. That means we actually can get to a drawdown scenario and it is not yet too late.
I wrote this up to show how:
Can we reverse global warming?
That gets us back to the IPCC scenario that stabilizes the climate! So no. It is not too late.
And there are more details regarding the emissions side of a drawdown scenario here:
And more information on how to properly set up a carbon market to facilitate both emissions and sequestration here:
Emissions is straight forward in a fee and dividend system. You put a fee on fossil fuel sources. That makes people search for low carbom alternatives, which are abundantly available already. The fee just makes them relatively cheaper. But then we take the dividend and use it to pay for measured verified carbon sink increases (rising SOC), and the two together can get us to a net negative.
There are still a few people quibbling over nonsense like which sector should take the heavier load. Should energy take 50% and agriculture the other 50% on the path to a drawdown scenario? Or should it be 80%/20%? Or maybe even 20%/80%? It really doesn't matter as long as in the end we get to a net negative atmospheric carbon flux.
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scaddenp at 08:37 AM on 4 June 2019Humans and volcanoes caused nearly all of global heating in past 140 years
Just one other further point. The milankovitch forcing for ice ages is very slow. At 65N (where the changes in solar insolation make the difference between summer melt or not), the change is of order of 0.01W/century. By contrast, injecting GHG into the atmosphere at the current rate is producing a forcing of order 4W/century over the entire globe.
I am always suspicious of statement like "The climate system is a very compelex system that nobody fully understands. " You will be hard pressed to find a scientist that would claim to "fully understand" any physical system. We do however understand a great deal about physical systems including climate. For instance, we can say with enormous confidence that if you change the incoming energy reaching the surface than the climate will change in response and furthermore, the amount of change will be positively (not necessarily linearly) related to the amount of change in that incoming energy. Scientists are a skeptical bunch butthey are extremely wedded to concept of conservation of energy.
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TVC15 at 06:02 AM on 4 June 2019Climate's changed before
MA Rodgers @ 717
Thank you once again for educating me so I can educate others!
With respect to the state of this planet and human activity I now see that's it too late to undo what human activity is doing to our climate.
I apologize if I come across as a "Debbie downer" but from all that I've learned thus far...it appears that this earth cannot overcome human caused destruction until we destroy ourselves.
I am not saying we should simply stop trying but when I look around the globe it's pretty evident that what we've unleashed on this earth is not stoppable even if fossil fuel use ceased 100% today.
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MA Rodger at 18:54 PM on 3 June 2019Climate's changed before
TVC15 @715,
The claim that "in every Inter-Glacial Period going back 800,000 years the sea level rose 3 meters to as much as 14 meters" is garbled nonsense, as is the comment about MIS-7 & MIS-9. The 'rise' presumably refers to SLR exceeding today's levels and the "3 meters" is probably referring to MIS-5 (although it is usually given as a little higher) which was the last interglacial 100,000 years ago while the "14 meters" is probably referring to MIS-11 400,000 years ago. (MIS-7 & MIS-9 were the interglacials inbetween these two.)
Reconstructing a SLR record over recent ice-ages is not as simple as the equivalent CO2 & polar temperature record. So it is not impossible that wildy contrardictory evidence exists and I'm not aware that a definitive source for ice-age SLR actually exists yet. Our good friend Google provides the graphic below although it requires signing-up to get a proper sight of the data it is based upon.
As for CO2 being below 300ppm during those previous interglacials, it was the planet's orbital configuration that allowed that extra ice-melt back then, the whole amplified by reduced albedo due to lower ice cover. Today those orbital configurations do not exist so without mankind's GHGs the planet would now be slipping into an ice-age and sea level would have been dropping. Our extra GHGs is more than preventing that and CO2 levels of 470ppm (not sure why that particular value is stated) will melt out Greenland (as happened in MIS-5) and a fair bit of Antarctica as well. So 14m SLR would be on the cards, although the melting is expected to take some millennia if you managed to stop at 470ppm.
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Ari Jokimäki at 15:08 PM on 3 June 2019New research, May 13-19, 2019
Thank you all! :-)
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TVC15 at 06:25 AM on 3 June 2019Climate's changed before
I meant to state that I think he's cherry picking and misrepresenting.
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TVC15 at 06:24 AM on 3 June 2019Climate's changed before
I've come across another climate change denier who stated these things.
If you read the peer-reviewed scientific articles, you will see that in every Inter-Glacial Period going back 800,000 years the sea level rose 3 meters to as much as 14 meters.
Sea levels during MIS-7 and MIS-9 were 10 meters to 14 meters higher than present.
What did you just say?
You said CO2 levels haven't exceed 300 ppm CO2 in 1 Million years.
So, what exactly is the point?
Who was burning fossil fuels in any of the previous Inter-Glacial Periods?
No one, yet sea levels still rose 3 meters to 14 meters.
In fact, CO2 levels ranged from 260 ppm to 280 ppm CO2.
So, the reality is that it doesn't matter if your CO2 level is 270 ppm or 470 ppm, because your sea level is going to increase 3 meters to 14 meters and neither you, nor anyone living, dead or who will ever live can stop it.
Once you accept that scientific reality, the best thing to do is let the Free Market handle it, instead of ramming useless laws down people's throats that will do nothing except screw people over.
I this he's cherry picking and misrepresenting.My questions are:
- Is it an accurate claim that in every Inter-Glacial Period going back 800,000 years the sea level rose 3 meters to as much as 14 meters?
- Is it accurate to state that it doesn't matter if your CO2 level is 270 ppm or 470 ppm, because your sea level is going to increase 3 meters to 14 meters and neither you, nor anyone living, dead or who will ever live can stop it?
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Ddahl44 at 04:06 AM on 3 June 2019The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
MA - thanks for the graphs. Lord(!) Kelvin temperatures I haven’t seen in years. We, in medicine, have trouble with converting C and F back and forth. It looks by the graph that the huge temperature swings on the moon are not so much due to the long lunar nights, but rather the long lunar days. Once it gets dark the temperature drops by 30-35 degrees C over 14 earth days. To extrapolate then, during a 12 hour earth night the temperature drops a little over 1 degree C. Not much. However from dawn to midday over 7 earth days the temperature rises an incredible 300 degrees. Extrapolation is more difficult for day changes since we’re on a curve and at least in Kansas, temperatures peak later in the day. But 6 hours of Earth day heating would increase the moon temperature by about 11 degrees. This is still more of a temperature change than Singapore, but to be fair to the moon, actually less of a change than a more comparable arid Earth locales, like say Phoenix, Cairo or Baghdad. They each had day/night differences yesterday of between 25 and 30 degrees F.
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wilddouglascounty at 23:40 PM on 2 June 2019New research, May 13-19, 2019
I hereby nominate Ari for the yet-to-be-created Un-Skeptical Accolades Award for his tireless contributions to this most valuable website. May you spend your newfound free time well; it is so deserved, and here's to John Cook and crew a note of encouragement to establish an Ari Jokimaki Internship position for someone to to fill Ari's very large shoes! I suspect there might be folks out there willing to contribute to such an internship position if given the opportunity to donate....
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nigelj at 08:14 AM on 2 June 20192019 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #22
"Climate crisis more politically polarizing than abortion for US voters, study finds"
So frustrating. Although Republicans rate the climate issue as very low priority compared to democrats, the article shows quite a number of Republicans want something done about it seemingly in contradiction, so perhaps the low priority ranking is just going along with the "approved tribal position" and their position on mitigation a better indicator of their real views. Although their real views are still rather lukewarm.
The cooperation on a carbon tax is still a long way away from achieving anything. Some say dont be judgemental of the other side in politics, work with them, be nice...but this does not seem to be yielding results when its tried. The grim reality is that on the climate, abortion, and guns issue both sides cannot be right.
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MA Rodger at 08:13 AM on 2 June 2019Humans and volcanoes caused nearly all of global heating in past 140 years
higgijh @5,
Adding a few numbers to the comment of Eclectic @6, the Vostok temperature data (for instance here) gives samples at least every 100 years back to beyond the last interglacial (the Eemian) and even back two more interglacials is still providing samples at least every 300 years. This data allows us to see that the current interglacial is uniquely long. The three previous interglacials peaked in hundreds of years while the present interglacial has lasted 10,000 years.
I would also add a few other comments:-
(A) A lack of glaciation over the Great Lakes is not a very useful marker for the climate change of the last century or so.
(D) The Milankovitch cycles ar not what "drives" ice ages, they are what 'triggers' ice ages. The 'drivers' are albedo (sunlight reflected away due to increased/decreased snow cover) and greenhouse gas concentrations. Mankind's GHG emissions have put pay to the ice-age cycle cooling & growing glaciation of the high northern latitudes so the coming ice age ain't gonna happen.
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Jonas at 07:28 AM on 2 June 2019New research, May 13-19, 2019
I already stated my appreciation of your work some time ago and can only repeat it: deep bowing .. I was asking myself how you managed to read/gather so much complicated stuff ..
If you have hints for other filtered climate sources for lay persons like me ..
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nigelj at 07:50 AM on 1 June 2019Humans and volcanoes caused nearly all of global heating in past 140 years
Higgij
I'm not sure what you are really getting at. I agree with eclectic. However I will throw in a couple of comments:
You expressed a concern that the early IPCC modelling did not predict the "pause" after 1998 (if I interpret you correctly). Scientists have always been up front that modelling cannot accurately predict relatively short periods like 10 years because they are influenced by natural variation. Eg clearly no modelling can predict volcanic eruptions or accurately predict a semi regular cycle like el nino, however modelling can predict longter term trends. In fact the pause does easily fit within error bars of the models see here.
"(F) The earth is just now coming out of a peak in the temperature variations caused by the orbital cycels. "
Not really refer here. Earth has been in a cooling phase for about 5,000 years and this has only been seriously interrupted by the warming spike since 1900.
"(G) When proxy temperature information inherently averages over 1000 years, the indicated peak temperatures over a 100 year period are drastically smoothed and diminished."
There is not enough data to get every short term temperature spike in the paleo record, however I recall reading somewhere that they use a random data gathering process which means its likely any large spike of 100 years would be captured. But even if past temperature record has short periods of rapid warming of 100 years comparable to recent decades since 1900, it would have to have an explanation, possibly intense volcanic activity. Volcanic activity was often very intense and protracted in Earths early history.
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Eclectic at 07:24 AM on 1 June 2019Humans and volcanoes caused nearly all of global heating in past 140 years
Higgijh @post5 ,
If I have correctly understood your thoughts : your are basically concerned by the low time-resolution of past temperature (proxy) records & what may be inferred from them.
Certainly, the time-resolution becomes fuzzier, the farther back in time we explore. We can delineate the past 1000 - 2000 years of climate changes rather more exactly than the past 10,000 years or the 800,000 years (of the ice-core records) or the past 500 million years (with very low time-resolution in say the Ordovician period).
Yet the laws of physics haven't changed during all that time, and we can see [for example] that Newtonian Laws of Motion must have applied just as well during the Ordovician as during the current Holocene.
How does that apply to world temperature changes? If we look at the past 10,000 years (of the Holocene interglacial) we see a flat plateau of about 5,000 years [the "Optimum"] followed by the latest 5.000 years showing a gradual decline in temperature, which would eventually have triggered a new glaciation in about 20,000 or 30,000 years' time or more (an "abnormally" long interglacial, owing to the current low-ellipticity of Earth orbit). Or at least, that is what would happen, without the human [CO2] intervention of the past century or two.
The temperature record of recent centuries shows that the reaction to a major volcanic eruption is a very brief world temperature dip (less than 5 years). And the reaction to a major diminution of insolation (a Grand Solar Minimum) is a much more prolonged dip ~ but only about 0.3 degrees. These sorts of excursions explain why the "shape" of the Holocene resembles a relatively smooth plateau. The "wiggles" of temperature (such as the Medieval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age) are very minor indeed, against the general background.
Higgijh ~ going farther back in time, if you had been alive during the time of the Younger Dryas (and miraculously you lived for twice Methuselah's age! ) you would have seen a large excursion of world temperature during a 1000 years. But that change was gradual, compared with the rocket-like rise in temperature of the immediate 50 - 100 years past. And the cause of the Younger Dryas would have been very obvious to you (to you and your team of observer-scientists). The point being, that "low time-resolution" is not a problem in seeing the results of major climate factors.
Similarly, going back through 800,000 years, you see the climate alter in a cyclic way (Milankovitch insolation "forcing changes" of up to 0.7 watts/m2 , triggering a CO2 greenhouse change much larger than that). Again, the "smoothing" of the time-resolution record is not a problem for understanding the history.
For a separate additional effect to produce a rapid spike (up or down), there would have to be some large & powerful short-term causation for temperature change. Just as in Newtonian terms, a mass does not change velocity unless it is acted upon by a force ~ so too for climate : climate does not change unless something causes it to change.
Which is why - in the observed absence of major climate factor changes - it does not matter that the (proxy) climate record has a resolution far worse i.e. far fuzzier than annual / decadal / or centennial, as the case may be.
Higgijh, I hope I have addressed your basic concern. But perhaps you have deeper unexpressed concerns?
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higgijh at 01:55 AM on 1 June 2019Humans and volcanoes caused nearly all of global heating in past 140 years
I appreciate the response I've gotten on my comment.
Note that although I reference page 43 twice, one reference is from the Synthestis report and the other is from the Summary report.
My current viewpoint. (A) Climate change is real. Anyone who says differently has to account for the absernce of the glaciers over the Great Lakes. (B) Carbon Dioxide is a green house gas and humans are pumping a lot of it into the atmosphere. So humans must be contributing to warming. (C) The climate system is a very compelex system that nobody fully understands. (D) Major changes in climate temperature that have brought on past ice ages is primarily driven by earth orbital cycles with periods of 23,000 years, 42,000 years, and 100,000 years. (E) Climate temperature proxys over the last million years indicate that peak temperature peaks are often (not always) very sharp (with respect to a 1000 year grid). (F) The earth is just now coming out of a peak in the temperature variations caused by the orbital cycels. (G) When proxy temperature information inherently averages over 1000 years, the indicated peak temperatures over a 100 year period are drastically smoothed and diminished.
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Eclectic at 20:41 PM on 31 May 2019Humans and volcanoes caused nearly all of global heating in past 140 years
Higgijh @post3 ,
(3) My apologies for fumbling your IPPC reference, but I turn up a completely inappropriate graph at Page 43. Would you be kind enough to insert your correct graph into the thread here? [Remembering the 500px width limit.] On second thoughts, it would be better for you to select a different thread ~ one where the question of Asian coal vs gas usage is on-topic (as it is not really relevant to the headline topic here of Humans and Volcanoes causing global heating since 1880 ).
(2) There is always the question of localization effects and time-resolution effects, in the assessing of temperature proxies in ice and sediments. But broadly speaking, these proxies are useful even when time-resolution is low.
We know that the climate only changes when something causes it to change ~ so in the absence of major factor changes in the last 10,000 years, we can [for example] be confident that the present-day world temperature is distinctly hotter than the Medieval Warm Period or the Roman Warm period or the "Holocene Optimum".
(1) Higgijh, this IPCC Page 43 seems the correct one you mean for (1). But I am entirely unclear on what difficulties you are having with it.
Climate trends are best assessed over a period of usually 30 years (or more) ~ so it is rather unsurprising that the Figure (c) over 60 years shows a good concordance between observations & models. Likewise it is not surprising that the short periods Fig. (a) 1998-2012 and Fig. (b) 1984-1998 , show observation/model disparity, since "natural internal variability" is more dominant during such very short periods.
The construction of climate models serves two purposes :-
# helping the assessment of individual climate factors [e.g. evapo-transpiration]
# projecting what may happen in the future, by a way which is likely to be much better than a guess ( = the equivalent of holding up a wetted finger to the breeze ).
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RedBaron at 19:28 PM on 31 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
@scaddenp,
Unfortunately I am still waiting for the published results of the study on gas exchange they were doing in Idaho where they found the increase in soil water infiltration and content on semiarid HM simulated land. I don't know if they are still collecting data or what? All I know is that during a USDA-NRCS seminar for farmers, it was mentioned by a NRCS scientist that they were attempting a new protocol suitable for full scale in situ direct measurments to finally lay to rest the doubters.
Keep in mind though, I already gave you this:
Climate change reduces the net sink of CH4 and N2O in a
semiarid grasslandReducing a net sink is still a net sink, just smaller. That means in no way does increasing the area of land in grassland, particularly the land restored to productivity after being degraded by poor management in the past, cause an increase in greenhouse gasses. Quite the contrary, grasslands are one of the few biological sinks for both NO2 and CH4, and the soil sink under a grassland the largest terrestrial CO2 sink.
It's between good, better, best whenever we improve or restore the ecosystem function of any grasslands by any means. In no way does any of these minutia in any way refute Savory's Holistic Management. It's still taking land that is a net source or if completely degraded, net zero; and turning it into a rather large net sink for carbon and restoring the hydrological cycles as well as quite a few other benefits not least of which is food and income for people.
"That would imply very low productivity per hectare."
Counterintuitively, no. In fact both primary productivity of the grassland and yields of meat, milk and/or wool all increase to such a large degree that even more wildlife are seen too!
This is because grass growth is not linear. It follows a sigmoid curve. So the trick is to time the grazing in such a way as to optimize grass growth rather than stocking rate. With more grass and forbs comes more yields, but that is almost an after thought. The focus is in how to restore the whole ecosystem in the context and framework of the land manager's long term goals for restoring the land for future generations. This is where the term "Holistic" comes from in this context. Most people who use the system stop thinking of themselves as ranchers or dairymen, but rather as grass farmers. They work at growing the best grassland ecosystem and use the animals to support that goal. It's a whole new paradigm and POV... but low and behold a fully functional grassland ecosystem is so much more productive that in the end it brings more yields and profits from the meat, milk, and fiber too.
For some technical information on how this is done, here is an ag extension guide with useful information:
There are some really interesting things found in there, like although the dairy produce slightly less milk per cow than the highly supplemented feeds given confined dairy, the number of cows that can be supported per acre increases so that based on land use, yields increase. More cows producing slightly less milk per cow, but total yields, quality of product and profits increase. It also shows how to plot growth curves of specific types of grass to determine the best time to bring the cows in for a day or two. (just after the highest growth rate for each dominant species)
How this improved ecosystem primary productivity can be harnessed for wildlife increases can be found here:
Grassland Birds: Fostering Habitats Using Rotational Grazing
I know that's just a side issue to the AGW debate, but it is key information in Holistic Management, which always views and considers the whole rather than just isolated parts.
"Permaculture is a philosophy of working with, rather than against nature; of protracted & thoughtful observation rather than protracted & thoughtless labor; & of looking at plants & animals in all their functions, rather than treating any area as a single-product system." Bill Mollison
And yes, in case you were wondering, HM is a form of permaculture.
Can you give a paragraph on the difference between HM and MIRG?
As a general rule MIRG (Managed Intensive Rotational Grazing) is any number of closely related grazing systems that came out of the work of Andre Voisin's Rational Grazing. And yes Savory was highly influenced by that work too. So yes HPG is a form of MIRG.What Savory did was spend decades working out how to take Voisen's work to the next level where it could be used on areas that defied rational management in the past. So basically what Savory did was take Voisen's breakthrough and work out how to make it universal under a much wider range of climatic, soil, social, technological, and cultural conditions. He basically dramatically reduced the naysayer's, "Great but that wont work here" down to basically near zero (within reason).
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higgijh at 12:07 PM on 31 May 2019Humans and volcanoes caused nearly all of global heating in past 140 years
This is a good article and I appreciate the information. However, I still have a problem with the IPCC 2014 report. (1) On page 43 of the Synthesis report there is a graph showing the predicted degrees C change in temperature per decade of climate models for 1998-2012. All of the models are predicting temperatures that are too high for that time frame excepth possibly one. Most of them get the number many times too high - like factors of 3 to 8 all the way up to 10. I don't have any problem with constructing a model of past climate and including effects as they are better understood. I do have a seious problem with using such models to extrapolate far into the future. This is particularly true when the extrapolated models are so far off at the point where they go from modeling the past to predicting the future. (2) Another question I have that is a problem for me is: "What is a climate temperature number?" Core samples, whether ice cores or sediment cores, generally give proxy temperature numbers that are averages over many years - sometimes one or two thousand years. So is a climate temperature an number measured today somewhere in the middle of the Pacific ocean? Or maybe an average over a year. Or averages of global temperature measurements over a year or a decade or a century, ... , or maybe a millenium? (3) Finally, there is another interesting graph in the 2014 IPCC report on page 43 of the summary report. This graph shows that the OECD-1990 Countries have held their emissions nearly constant as a group since about 1970. That same graph shows that Asia has been increasing their emissions by about 12 Gt/Yr over the same period. I think that this points to a serious problem over which we have very little control. A switch by Asia from coal to natural gas would probably hit the emissions problem where a punch would do the most short term benefit.
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scaddenp at 09:35 AM on 31 May 20192015 SkS Weekly Digest #38
I dont know about "quietly". Problems with coal estimates from a grossly inefficient bureaucracy were uncovered by IEA in 2013 and they have steadily working on fixes since then. Big revision in 2015.
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litvichar at 09:25 AM on 31 May 20192015 SkS Weekly Digest #38
In May, China's statistical agency quietly raised estimates of how much coal the nation has burned since 2000.
SOurce: https://laffaz.com
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scaddenp at 07:43 AM on 31 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
Do you have a reference for full gas fluxes under a property you consider to be HM with high rates of C sequestration? I was also noting that high rates of C sequestration go with N input both from observational evidence and biological fundimentals. For any farm, you still have a stocking rate of total animal-days/total land. However, I agree that continuous versus rotational grazing is going to be important and it is hard to find that in the Conant paper. The Mandan and Cheyenne data which are best for length of time and gas flux are both continuous seasonal grazing.
If most land has no animals for most of year, then that is very low stocking rate in my opinion.That would imply very low productivity per hectare. Yet (quite a while ago), you were saying that dairy productivity (milk solid per hectare) in your systems were on a comparable rate to NZ rotationally-grazed pastures?
Can give a paragraph on difference between HM and MIRG? I find it frustrating in papers (eg Briske Teague controversies) where lack of good definitions muddy the waters.
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nigelj at 07:08 AM on 31 May 2019Humans and volcanoes caused nearly all of global heating in past 140 years
Agree with BB. While the article is great and the headline is technically correct it gives a bad message that volcanos are a big factor in long term warming, and it will delight climate denialists. We know people often only read headlines.
It might have been better to word it differently like "new study better explains early 20th century and recent arctic warming"
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Bill Bishop at 03:05 AM on 31 May 2019Humans and volcanoes caused nearly all of global heating in past 140 years
Dana, it's great to see another article of yours in the Guardian!
The headline is misleading as it implies that 1.) volcanoes cause warming, and 2.) that the warming they cause is comparable to the impact of human emissions. While the article explains that a lull in volcanic activity in the mid-20th century caused less cooling, describing this as a heating effect can misinform laypeople scanning the headlines.
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JohnSeers at 02:26 AM on 31 May 2019The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
@Ddahl44 @153
The significant point about "stasis", that is no change, is that there will not be a temperature rise. The situation is static.
In a changing system, if you add a molecule of water vapour to the atmosphere it will be rained out very quickly in a matter of hours/days and the system will still be at the same temperature. The carrying capacity of the atmosphere will not have changed.
If you add a molecule of carbon dioxide it will stay in the atmosphere for a long, long time (100000 years?). In that time it will capture (and release) a photon many times and add a small amount of heat to the system. It will slow the escape of heat to space. The temperature will not return to equilibrium like the water vapour molecule. In addition the carrying capacity of the atmosphere for water vapour will have increased which leads to a feedback rise in temperature.
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MA Rodger at 18:55 PM on 30 May 2019The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
Ddah144,
Your initial comment on this thread @142 made quite an issue of "the moon’s huge day to night temperature swings" which doesn't seem to have been addressed properly. You correctly point out that the massive size of the change in lunar day-to-night temperature is due to the month-long Lunar day. The graph below shows the equitorial lunar temperature and the temperature range remains high all the way from the equator almost to the poles - even at 75º of latitude it has only dropped from a 300K swing to 200K.
The portion of this lunar graphic of interest when considering the equivalent effect for a 24 Earth-hour rotation would be the 0.8 Lunar-hours centred on the Lunar average temperature. That would suggest a day-to-night equatorial temperature range of something like 80ºC. A more accurate calculation (the graphic below provided by climate skeptic Roy Spencer) shows an equitorial range of about 70ºC, a lot lower than the actual range for a planet with a GHG atmosphere. For instance Singapore has (or more correctly 'had') an average daily maximim of 30.3ºC and daily minimum of 23.5ºC, thus a range of just 7.2ºC.
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RedBaron at 17:52 PM on 30 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
@scaddenp,
The reason you cant find stocking rates for HM is because HM doesn't have a stocking rate. Stocking rates are for putting an animal on a pasture at a certain number of head per acre and the most common "improved" rotational system being "rest rotation" mentioned above in a few of the sources which involves moving the animals once a year.
Most HM animals are moved daily and most the land has no animals on it most the year. This is why it does not have the issues with NO2 you are attempting to raise. No piece of land can get over saturated by urine if the animal is present only a day and none returns for weeks or months or more. And as I explained already, it doesn't get agrochemicals either.
It's not an issue. This issue is found in lessor management strategies. But again. I want to stress this yet again.... The net is still negative even in somewhat lesser management strategies. These are not emissions sources either way. It's net negative. All the argument involves is good vs better.
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scaddenp at 14:42 PM on 30 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
Firstly, I am not considering any data where any artificial fertilizer of any sort is used. The paper definitely points to management where N2O is reduced - this is management with lower stocking rates. I dont know how the stocking rate data for reduced N2O compares to HM.
Grazing adds natural N fertilizer, with higher stocking resulting in higher N input, so N input must be considered. What struck about the study was high C and N sequestration also went with higher N2O emissions. However, the lower stocking rates at Cheyenne still produced big increases in C and N sequestration but not as large as high stocking rates. If this is HM, then great. Just not sure how well low stocking rates goes down with farmers.
While the calculation of "net cooling" from the C, N and N2O fluxes ignored CH4 emissions, I agree that C sequestration is way better than agrochemical supported cropping. However, farming practises thatsupport cropping and increased SoC are well known (if not necessarily done). I havent tracked down much on gas fluxes in these systems.
I am being highly critical of HM, but that is because I want to believe it can be made to work. I am pushing anyone I can think of to look at zero-input, SoC increasing research here.
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RedBaron at 13:58 PM on 30 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
@scaddenp,
Not sure why you insist on this idea when even in the abstract it clearly states,
"Conversely, reduction of N2O fluxes in grassland soils brought about by changes in management represents an opportunity to reduce the contribution of grasslands to net greenhouse gas forcing."
It's almost like you are happy to cast doubt on HM due to implied hints that in general terms certain types of management increase NO2 emissions, yet completely ignore the fact that HM is both lower than other types of management, and even the other conventional GAP methods are still net negative, although not as good as HM.The evidence is clear though, both in correlation like in your review, and also the causation is known as well.
Phosphorus and Nitrogen Regulate Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Symbiosis in Petunia hybrida
Excess nitrogen that is susceptible to producing increased NO2 emissions also has the negative side effect of shutting down the symbiotic relationship between the AMF and the plant. This symbiosis is what gives grasslands their much higher net carbon sequestration rate. Too much soluble nitrogen (or phosphorus) therefore will still improve biomass carbon, but it reduces the LCP.
Now you could be tricked into thinking applying extra fertilizer is beneficial, because biomass increases. Also the soil becomes more acidic and compacts more, becomming more anoxic. This slows down the saprophytic fungi responcible for decomposing biomass in the carbon short cycle (labile carbon). O-horizon carbon can show an increase. But this responce is temporary and in the long term sequesters far less long term Carbon deep into the soil profile.
Still in all cases it is far far more beneficial carbon footprint compared to cropping systems which almost all use agrochemical fertilizers and which almost all are net carbon sources... It's just that the case of HM the effect is universally much more beneficial over a wider range of conditions.
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scaddenp at 08:20 AM on 30 May 2019The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
Ddahl44 - the Schmitdt et al paper that I pointed you to in 152 has the detail for current atmosphere. Did you look at it? (short answer - the calculation is a lot more complicated than you think. You cannot treat the atmosphere as a single layer, nor are the responses to IR for each type of molecule the same).
The really gruesome detail is encompassed in the Radiative Transfer Equations. A lot of teaching resources around the net for these. eg here and here.
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Eclectic at 08:19 AM on 30 May 2019The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
Ddahl44 @153 ,
If I may make a brief and rather over-simplified reply :-
H2O and CO2 operate at different "transmission bands" of InfraRed radiation ~ so they are not in competition, and so can't be directly compared.
A second aspect, is that (effectively) the IR loss (to outer space) is occurring from molecules at very high altitudes in the atmosphere, where the temperatures are so cold that very little H2O is present in vapor form ~ unlike the case of CO2 (which does not condense at these temperatures, and so maintains its relative concentration of 0.04% ).
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scaddenp at 08:05 AM on 30 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
The Conant study looked at 54 studies where management practises were examined for their effect on soil. Only 16 of these involved artificial fertilizer, 9 of which included direct N fertilization. The two sites with detailed N2O direct measurement (Mandan, Cheyenne) did not use artificial fertilizer. Reduced N2O was only observed with low grazing rates.
The good news, is that many studies produced net cooling effect from grassland, (not N fertilization), but not as high as C sequestration would suggest.
Now I cannot evaluate which if any of the studies would be considered "HM", but it is clear to me that claims of the climate benefit from grazing practise need to consider other gas fluxes, not just carbon.
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Ddahl44 at 03:46 AM on 30 May 2019The human fingerprint in the daily cycle
JohnSeers - my nonclimate scientific mind needs to understand stasis before I can understand change. Eclectic states each molecule (H2O or CO2) can absorb a photon. If this is correct, then at any point in time, assuming H2O makes up 2% of the molecules in the atmosphere, are not H2O molecules absorbing 70x the photons of CO2? How does CO2 jump from 1.5% of the work to 20%, regardless if it is doubled or not? I need to understand this before I work on feedback loops and changing the variables. Thanks.
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RedBaron at 15:19 PM on 29 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
@scaddenp,
Using haber process nitrogen to boost C sequestration is a GAP, but not HM. It explains very clearly why conventional GAP that uses fossil fuels to manufacture haber process nitrogen (made from natural gas) and fertilize grasslands might appear to give good results but it is an illusion.
Instead HM uses the millions of years old symbiosis between grasses, herbivores, and mycorrhizal fugi to improve yields and sequester carbon without the NO2 offsets.
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scaddenp at 09:20 AM on 29 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
I dont see how HM "succeeds" if N2O fluxes offset the C gains.
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marksf at 04:03 AM on 29 May 2019Positive feedback means runaway warming
This was useful. Glad I read it. I'm curios about where the curve for the "blue line" comes from.
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joecjo at 16:54 PM on 28 May 2019New research, May 13-19, 2019
Sorry to hear. I really have appreciated the listings. Thank you for your ongoing commitment to climate science publishing.
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RedBaron at 16:02 PM on 28 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
@30 scaddenp,
No. I do not challenge the data. I claim the data supports Holistic management and further reinforces the dichotomy between conventional GAP and Holistic management and explains very clearly why conventional GAP fails where HM succeeds.
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scaddenp at 13:49 PM on 28 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
RedBaron - I still think we are at cross-purpose here. Can we focus on the Conant review for a moment. A substantial conclusion is:
"Results from this work demonstrate that even
when improved management practices result in
considerable rates of C and N sequestration,
changes in N2O fluxes can offset substantial portion
of gains by C sequestration"Are you challenging the data of this review? ie are you disputing that management practices which improve C and N sequestration (good) unfortunately result in increased N2O fluxes (bad)?
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RedBaron at 12:03 PM on 28 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
Well I wrote a long formal rebuttal again and lost it again because I took too long and forgot to save a copy. So here is the quick and dirty version.
That highlighted statement taken at face value is fine. I have no issues CONSIDERING those impacts. But just keep in mind that after considering them, it in more evidence to support Savory's work.
under dry conditions net CH4 uptake can increase with increased soil moisture
Climate change reduces the net sink of CH4 and N2O in a
semiarid grasslandSo lets look at the soil moisture under Savory's Holistic managed grazing as compared to conventional rest rotation and also total rest as a control.
While soil type and shrub cover were effectively the same across the study area, mean %VWC differed. Pair-wise comparisons indicate that mean %VWC for the SHPG treatment pasture was significantly higher than that found in either the RESTROT or TREST treatment pastures while mixed procedures models in SAS revealed strong environmental as well as treatment effects.
Effect of grazing on soil-water content in semiarid rangelands of southeast Idaho
So in this case when you consider these additional greenhouse gasses it supports Savory's claims even more so. This is indeed part of the biophysical causation for the results in the field Savory observed.
So yes. Consider it. But then acknowledge that after considering it, the results provide additional support for Holistic management and additional evidence the OP here by Seb V is falsified by published evidence.
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barry17781 at 11:55 AM on 28 May 2019Introducing a new citizens initiative for carbon pricing in Europe
nigel,
my understanding of the methane balance is that the main form of destruction is by UV and oxygen in the atmosphere , not in the soil.
The increase in methane in the last few years is from the east where paddy fields are probably the major contributor, not cattle and sheep belching. It is called marsh gas for a reason in that marshes (and paddy fields ) are a major source.
Nevertherless cattle pooing on the land is a natural way of mainaing fertility and I would be interested in finding if the carbon maintained and sequestered on pasture offset the methae imbalance.
Of interest the destruction of the vast herds of herbivores in the americas by the clovis event and then by the destruction of the bison in the 19th century have been attributed to blips in the climate record
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scaddenp at 08:04 AM on 28 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
Redbaron - I dont follow you. First I dont dispute the measured fluxes in C. I am extremely heartened to see it from european pastures. I am not sure which paper you think is based on model responses? My attention is drawn instead to the changes in N2O fluxes that accompanies increased C sequestration and at least partly offsets it. This is from referenced literature review of Conant et al 2005. Hence the "Policies intended to offset GHG emissions using C sequestration must therefore consider impacts on other biogenic GHGs like N2O and CH4." statement.
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egmart50 at 04:54 AM on 28 May 2019Beleaguered journalism interests seek to aid ailing planet
This thought seems appropiate to the Climate Change situation: "One of the saddest lessons of history is this: If we've been bamboozled long enough, we tend to reject any evidence of the bamboozle. We're no longer interested in finding out the truth. The bamboozle has captured us. It's simply too painful to acknowledge, even to ourselves, that we've been taken. Once you give a charlaton power over you, you almost never get it back." ____ Carl Sagan
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One Planet Only Forever at 00:26 AM on 28 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
Developing an improved understanding of what can be achieved through revised farming practices is important.
But the basic understanding is that changing farming practices can result in Carbon Sequestration ... as long as something like increased global warming does not undo any benefits achieved that way.
The real focus still needs to be rapidly ending the addictive abuse of fossil fuels. In parallel with that, farming practices need to be corrected in ways that help reduce the harm being done to future generations by unsustainable activity (and in parallel with that, actions are required that will rapidly achieve and improve on all of the Sustainable Development Goals).
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RedBaron at 19:56 PM on 27 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
@scaddenp,
Yes Scaddenp. I also know about that one too. But keep in mind this exact quote from the paper I referenced:
Carbon sequestration in grasslands can be determined directly by measuring changes in C pools and indirectly by measuring the net balance of C fluxes.
The conclusions you posted are based indirectly on models, and the paper I gave you is directly measuring pools. Same goes for my previous papers I referenced.
Now the results from each would be perfectly fine if the simulation model was accurate in simulating holistic managed land, but as Dr Jones noted, the Roth C model being used to project these fluxes is inadequate to simulate the LCP, while still being perfectly good at simulating O-horizon fluxes primarily caused by saprophytic micro-organisms.
This is the reason for the dichotomy
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Ari Jokimäki at 16:05 PM on 27 May 2019New research, May 13-19, 2019
Thank you both! :-)
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scaddenp at 13:25 PM on 27 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
Interesting for its studies in cooler European environment. Following the cites are interesting too and we find that the author (Soussana) has some caveats in a later paper.
"Sequestration of C in grassland soils by changing management practices is widely seen as a way to offset CO2 emissions. However, previous studies indicate that the projected increasing frequency of drought and heat wave events may turn grasslands into C sources, contributing to positive carbon-climate feedbacks (Ciais et al. 2005; Soussana et al. 2007). In addition, the combination of long-term effects of drought with high atmospheric [CO2] could decrease soil microbial biomass (Loiseau and Soussana 2000; Pinay et al. 2007) and promote shifts in functional microbial types (Barnard et al. 2006), thus leading to changes in biogeochemical cycles and C sequestration. Moreover, Conant et al. (2005) showed that even when improved management practices result in considerable rates of C and N sequestration, changes in N2O fluxes can offset a substantial portion of gains by C sequestration. Policies intended to offset GHG emissions using C sequestration must therefore consider impacts on other biogenic GHGs like N2O and CH4."
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RedBaron at 13:10 PM on 27 May 2019New rebuttal to the myth 'Holistic Management can reverse Climate Change'
I found yet another confirmation that the range measured by Dr. Jones (5-20 tonnes CO2e/ha/yr) was completely independantly repeated.
Mitigating livestock greenhouse gas balance
through carbon sequestration in grasslandsThis time between 7.3 and 7.9 tonnes CO2e/ha/yr
Approximately 8 tonnes CO2e/ha/yr is the target number concerning land currently in food production. That's not even counting the vastly larger area of degraded land destroyed by mankind that Savory has proven can be restored to fertile grassland by proper management.
So yet again it is not Savory being refuted, it is this article by Seb V.
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Eclectic at 11:52 AM on 27 May 2019There is no consensus
JoeZ @801 ,
Yes, there are "scientists who aren't part of the consensus" ~ but there are hardly any climate scientists who would fit in that category. That is why the Consensus is only 99+% , not absolutely 100% . Far worse for your unstated position, JoeZ, those very few scientists had all produced hypotheses which have been thoroughly disproven (see Svensmark, Lindzen) . . . and worse again, they contain a high percentage of religious crackpots who are not strictly scientific in their mode of thinking.
Are they "stupid"? Well, stupid is a rather elastic term. I myself know a fellow who has a PhD and spent decades in scientific research [but not in climate-related matters] and yet he is a member of the local Flat Earth Society. Unsurprisingly, he is also in denial about global warming.
Is he stupid? He is pleasant, sociable, and intelligent ~ but that doesn't stop him from being quite wrong about important issues. Just like Lindzen & his comrades who are over-influenced by irrational religious beliefs or extremist political beliefs. They put their ego ahead of scientific thinking.
Also rather like your Mr Alex Epstein (who is an author, not a philosopher) who chooses to write a book, not submitting his ideas to the point-by-point criticism which would occur in the process of peer-review in a scientific paper. JoeZ, it is easy to write a book and have your unbalanced rhetoric sweep your ill-informed readers into a state of intellectual submission & adulation . . . just as it is easy to make a "documentary" film about a subject [ here, "The Great Global Warming Swindle" comes to mind ] where severely-doctored graphs and fallacious logic are employed. The general reading/viewing public are not to know how fake it all is, unless they take the trouble to apply critical thinking and to educate themselves on the basics of the issue.
In the end, JoeZ , it all comes down to evidence. And evidence is the thing lacking in the positions taken by those "non-consensus" scientists. The climate consensus exists because of the climate evidence.
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JoeZ at 10:17 AM on 27 May 2019Tree-rings diverge from temperature after 1960
From the essay at the top, "Tree growth is sensitive to temperature." I've been a professional forester since Nixon was in the White House and I know that there are many variables that influence tree growth. I wouldn't place too much faith in the relationship between tree growth and temperature. Other factors include soil moisture, age of the tree, competition with other trees (is the forest dense or has it been thinned either naturally or by cutting?), pathologies which may be temporary like gypsy moth, air pollution and the level of atmospheric CO2. Some research shows trees growing faster with higher levels of CO2.
Moderator Response:[PS] Funnily enough, the importance of other factors is well known and using tree rings as proxies requires careful selection. See here for example and more detail.
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JoeZ at 09:14 AM on 27 May 2019There is no consensus
I have a few quotes from the article to comment on.
"Science achieves a consensus when scientists stop arguing." But the arguing continues. When it stops you have orthodoxy and heretics.
"But the testing period must come to an end." I suspect a lot of testing and improved model building is needed which should keep the testing going.
"That’s why those who oppose taking action to curb climate change have engaged in a misinformation campaign to deny the existence of the expert consensus." Hey, that's quite a claim. Maybe they believe what they say?
I don't have a fixed position yet on global warming. I have been looking at some of the scientists who aren't part of the consensus. I hope it's not considered dangerous to look at their views- do we get excommunicated for doing so? Whenever I mention any of the non conforming in other forums- the biggest comeback is that they're all on the take from the fossil fuel industries or they're just stupid. I don't really care who pays them and I'd hardly consider anyone with a Phd as stupid.
Aside from the many non conforming scientists- I've found one interesting guy, Alex Epstein, a philospher by training who has published his book on the subject, "The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels". I watched him debate Bill McKibben back in 2014. It's on YouTube. I think he held his own in that debate. I don't think it's fair to instantly dismiss such thinkers. He admits upfront that he's had connections with that industry- so no need to point that out. He has a very interesting perspective- worth looking at, even by those convinced of the existential threat of climate change. It doesn't hurt to see what the opposition is up to. I found his book so interesting I'd like to get a discussion going on this forum, if that's possible- but it probably isn't.
Moderator Response:[PS] This thread is for discussion of consensus studies. Please take any discussion of a moral case for fossil fuels to the weekly roundup thread.
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