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John Hartz at 08:54 AM on 8 December 2017Sea level rise predictions are exaggerated
Bill 13 @54: The paper that you have provided a link to demonstrates that science is a continuous process of discovery.
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Bill13 at 08:13 AM on 8 December 2017Sea level rise predictions are exaggerated
Can anyone here comment on this: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s41748-017-0020-z
On the surface it looks like more shanigan's have been found, and at least in these locations the rate of sea level rise was exagerated.
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nigelj at 06:36 AM on 8 December 2017US government report finds steady and persistent global warming
"Getting vested-interest money out of politics is the one move that would give us a chance."
Yes absolutely.
Wikipedia has interesting article on publicly funded elections, and examples of countries using this, although the extent is limited:
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Publicly_funded_elections
It seems such a small price for us to pay to clean up politics and ensure politicians don't become captured by hidden lobby groups. Of course the opponents of public funding will argue that a wide range of groups contribute to election campaigns so it allegedly "evens out" but it only takes one wealthy group to capture key politicians, to have a disproportionate and damaging influence, IMO and the fossil fuel industry is very wealthy.
And on a related matter, you only have to read the history of lobbying against environmental legislation to be quite shocked about what goes on behind the scenes, and how dirty the game often is.
However things may be slow to change in the USA for reasons to do with constitutional guarantees on freedom, and a tendency to take things simplistically in this regard. It may be that philanthropists concerned about climate change should fund politicians campaigns as much as they possibly can. It's not idea solution, but seems the only viable option in America right now, and would dilute the influence of the fossil fuel groups and libertarian business donors.
It's also a moral question. Politicians are paid out of the public purse in terms of their salaries, and should be thinking of the public interest as a whole.
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nigelj at 05:07 AM on 8 December 2017COP23 video: Three need-to-knows from the UN climate talks in Bonn
Trump says America will have "clean fossil fuels". Donald Trump also promised not to play golf, to reform obamacare, balance the budget, eliminate federal debt within 8 years (all 18 trillion dollars worth), put tariffs on China. Hmm, clean fossil fuels don't look terribly likely, based on the evidence, the Trump governments record, the credibility of various promises, and the high cost of clean fossil fuels compared to renewable energy.
Just look at the costs of experimental clean coal and the difficulties of strong carbon, in the clean coal plant in Canada.
Renewable energy is far more cost effective, and simpler than clean fossil fuels, which shows how these politicians must have other reasons, like pandering to campaign supporters, and scoring points against the green movement and Obama. A gish gallop of pathetic motives.
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nigelj at 04:46 AM on 8 December 2017COP23 video: Three need-to-knows from the UN climate talks in Bonn
Paris agreement is becoming critical. Latest research is ominous, and says:
"More-severe climate model predictions could be the most accurate"
Date:December 6, 2017
Source:Carnegie Institution for ScienceSummary:The climate models that project greater amounts of warming this century are the ones that best align with observations of the current climate, according to a article. Their findings suggest that the models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, on average, may be underestimating future warming.
"Our study indicates that if emissions follow a commonly used business-as-usual scenario, there is a 93 percent chance that global warming will exceed 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of this century. Previous studies had put this likelihood at 62 percent."
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william5331 at 04:37 AM on 8 December 2017US government report finds steady and persistent global warming
Even politicians who realize what is happening will spout denialism if that is demanded by their sponsors. The one ring that controls them all is money in politics. The cost of the present system is so huge, so pervasive that it would be far better if politicians were supported from the public purse. Getting vested-interest money out of politics is the one move that would give us a chance.
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thanes at 02:07 AM on 8 December 2017US government report finds steady and persistent global warming
Has anyone done a comparison with the latest data and Hansen’s Congressional testimony? I would love that, last ones I’ve seen were from here, maybe 2014?
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nigelj at 17:40 PM on 7 December 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #48
Those guys can really sing.
And now for Bob Dylans Hard Rain song, the climate change version.
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Eclectic at 15:04 PM on 7 December 2017Homogenization of Temperature Data: An Assessment
Moderators, may I suggest that Scottfree1's post here be moved to the "No Climate Conspiracy" thread, since it fits with his other (contemporary) posts there. His posts express Conspiracy Theory, and do not involve genuine science.
Moderator Response:[JH] Please leave to moderatiing to the moderators. Thank you.
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Tom Dayton at 13:19 PM on 7 December 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #48
Tis the season, y'all.
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John Hartz at 09:57 AM on 7 December 2017The moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the Republican Party
Recommended supplememtal reading:
Instrument of Power: How Fossil Fuel Donors Shaped the Anti-Climate Agenda of a Powerful Congressional Committee by Marianne Lavelle & David Hasemyer, InsideClimate News, Dec 5, 2017
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Eclectic at 08:47 AM on 7 December 2017No climate conspiracy: NOAA temperature adjustments bring data closer to pristine
Scottfree1 @36 and @37 ,
. . . your cherrypicking is a laugh.
Please read the article above and its following comments.
Then ask yourself, if there is no real global warming — then why is the ice melting and the sea-level rising, and plants & animals changing their habits as well.
Could it be that the plants & animals are smarter than the average denier?
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nigelj at 05:43 AM on 7 December 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #48
Addendum. While Greenspans views were reported in some media, coverage was limited, and the political and economic establishment were largely silent on them.
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nigelj at 05:38 AM on 7 December 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #48
"Economists mainly get their applications of theory like Adam Smith's, Milton Friedman's, and Say's Law wrong because they 'presume' that the damaging potential of self-interest will be effectively managed by more freedom of people to think and do as they please.........The nuttiest of them are totally deluded acolytes of the fairy tale spinners like Ayn Rand."
An interesting example is Alan Greenspan, head of the American Federal reserve leading up to the global financial crash, acolyte of Ayn Rand and Milton Friedman, and believer that financial markets self regulate, and that housing bubbles cannot happen. After the crash, he admitted he was wrong about all these things, but the political establishment and media said "hush" we cant talk about Greenspan, bury it all fast.
So unfortunately important lessons (important information) from important people gets missed and when information is confused, poor decisions follow..
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nigelj at 05:17 AM on 7 December 2017US government report finds steady and persistent global warming
Another useful study. Reading the comments after the article, we have many denialist claims we have heard many times before, all unsupported by any sources, and rebuttals from people quoting actual research sources. It's so sad and frustrating this is all still needed, and it's so time consuming.
No doubt some climate denialists simply have inadequate knowledge and can be persuaded and informed, but I think the problem is largely ideological and political, and research supports this as follows.
According to this article here we are very fixed minded on politically charged issues, as climate change has become. We takes politics very personally apparently. They say challenge is for us to depersonalise and rationalise the issues.
This research article here discusses research on what changes peoples minds. Its really useful, and full of surprises.
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One Planet Only Forever at 04:56 AM on 7 December 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #48
NorrisM,
A legal case like the one you refer to could lead to changes of official policy requiring proof that the changes will actually meaningfully rapidly reduce GHG emssions. As a minimum, it could require the reversal of every Trump Administration reversal of Obama led policy actions related to climate science, including the requirement to honourably rejoin the Paris Agreement. It could also result in a requirement to return of government funding for climate science research and promotion of understanding (refunding the climate science advisory panel to help Leaders better understand what actions are helpful).
The legal case is more likely to increase the awareness and understanding of how the games of popularity and profitability can result in truly damaging developments. It could also increase awareness of the lack of development of sustainable improvements for the future of humanity due to Winning by people with Private Interests that are understandably contrary to the undeniable governing Public Interest of achieving the globally developed Sustainable Development Goals (goals that include sustainable poverty reduction, environmental protection, climate action and population limits - most important being limits on the total impact of the activity of the global population, with the understanding that all of the goals need to be achieved).
Clearly the Private Interests that are contrary to achieving Good Objectives like the SDGs should not even be allowed to compete for popularity and profitability. Such Private Interests can increase their competitive advantage by trying to get away with behaving less acceptably. Those Private Interests can too easily drum up popular temporary regional or tribal support for understandably unhelpful actions. Cheaper and quicker are more profitable and can be popular regardless of any proof of how harmful the cheaper quicker option is. And that greed temptation/addiction can more easily Win if it successfully partners with less social intolerance (as is clearly proven by Unite the Right groups who will vote for each other's understandably unacceptable social and economic Private Interests).
Perhaps this legal action will also increase the understanding that it is OK to penalize people for actions that were 'legal' if the only reason they were 'regionally legal at the time' is that the 'laws or their enforcment' failed to effectively responsibly limit actions that were understandably contrary to achieving the Good Objectives of the SDGs. That would include the ability to remove Supreme Court Justices who present 'legal positions attempting to justify actions that are contrary to acheieving the SDGs by claiming some nonsense such as a dogma-based claim that Private Interest Freedom (based on an interpretation of the US Constitution and its many amendments) should over-rule the Global Public Interests (such as the absurdities of economist beliefs that more freedom in Private Interest economic pursuits and less government action regarding 'what is encouraged/discouraged' in the Public Interest will develop lasting improvements for all of humanity). I mention this because the undeniably politically biased US Supreme Court in its current form would likley pass a 5 to 4 split-decision judgement against the interests of future generations of USA citizens, 5-4 in support of Private Interests that are contrary to any lower court decision that supports the Public Interests of the future generations (the current US Supreme Court would likely do that rather than declare the need for another Constitutional Amendment - or they may declare the need for an unjustified Constitutional Amendment that is contrary to achieving the Public Interest). A Good Way to change that 'debilitating legal aspect' is developing the acceptability of removing a US Supreme Court Justice for 'Good Reason'. Nobody should be 'above being removed from a leadership role or being penalized for Good Reason', not even a Supreme Court Justice. As for 'who' would make such a decision, a consensus of experts in the field would suffice leading to a Senate Vote to remove the Justice for Good Reason (with each expert/Senator subject to removal from being considered an expert/Senator by their peers if they can be shown to have acted in a way that is contrary to the achievement of the Good Objective of the SDGs - and with all experts able to recommend improvements to the SDGs, substantiated by Good Reason of course).
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One Planet Only Forever at 03:13 AM on 7 December 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #48
Daniel Mocsny,
Selling/promoting 'climate action' needs more than a 'better marketing spin'. In fact marketing spin can be understood to be part of the problem. Raising awareness and better understanding is often easily challenged by misleading marketing that tempts people to prefer to believe an unjustified claim supporting a Private Interest.
The real problem is the lack of a Good Objective (lack of morality/ethics) that obviously/undeniably develops when people are freer to believe anything that suits their personal interest and do whatever they desire.
As John Stuart Mill warned in “On Liberty” ... “If society lets a considerable number of its members grow up mere children, incapable of being acted on by rational consideration of distant motives, society has itself to blame for the consequences.”
And the 1987 UN report “Our Common Future” pointedly identified the political-economic problem as follows:
“25. Many present efforts to guard and maintain human progress, to meet human needs, and to realize human ambitions are simply unsustainable - in both the rich and poor nations. They draw too heavily, too quickly, on already overdrawn environmental resource accounts to be affordable far into the future without bankrupting those accounts. They may show profit on the balance sheets of our generation, but our children will inherit the losses. We borrow environmental capital from future generations with no intention or prospect of repaying. They may damn us for our spendthrift ways, but they can never collect on our debt to them. We act as we do because we can get away with it: future generations do not vote; they have no political or financial power; they cannot challenge our decisions.
“26. But the results of the present profligacy are rapidly closing the options for future generations. Most of today's decision makers will be dead before the planet feels; the heavier effects of acid precipitation, global warming, ozone depletion, or widespread desertification and species loss. Most of the young voters of today will still be alive. In the Commission's hearings it was the young, those who have the most to lose, who were the harshest critics of the planet's present management.”Economists mainly get their applications of theory like Adam Smith's, Milton Friedman's, and Say's Law wrong because they 'presume' that the damaging potential of self-interest will be effectively managed by more freedom of people to think and do as they please. They ignore the undeniable reality of the damaging results that develop when people with harmful Private Interests are allowed to compete for popularity or profitability. The nuttiest of them are totally deluded acolytes of the fairy tale spinners like Ayn Rand. They believe that any collective action that would restrict individual freedom to is poisonous. They fundamentally incorrectly believe that collective social leadership through government (and I would add business leadership) is only ever a bad thing.
My understanding of the problem is that people who get away with behaving less acceptably will have a competitive advantage. There is ample evidence of that axiom in politics, economics and sports. And the answer in every case is responsible restriction of what can be gotten away with through collective support of Good Responsible Leadership/Winning. And in every case of the pursuit of the development of that collective desire for Good Leadership/Winning there is the constant challenge by Private Interests gaming things to be able to Win by behaving less acceptably. Even in Sports, there is the constant need for new rules and monitoring and penalizing to try to ensure that Good Behaviour is the only behaviour competing to Win Rewards (some competitors always try to figure out ways to Legally behave less acceptably - leading to the need for new rules including actions to expel the cheaters who generate the need for new rules from the competitions).
Moral/Ethical outrage should be focused on raising awareness and understanding of the unacceptability of fundamentalist believers in that 'Freedom to believe and do as you please', especially focusing on exposing damaging reality of the groups of Fundamentalist Freedom Fighters who try to Win by gathering support through damaging misleading marketing to encourage people to be greedier and less tolerant. Those groups refer to themselves as Uniting the Right and claim to be Conservative (they hope to get the votes of support from easily impressed people who fundamentally support 'Conservative' without really thinking about what they are actually supporting. Those groups carefully appeal for votes of support from clearly harmful Private Interests, being careful not to push away people with harmful Private Interests who may choose not to support Other Harmful Private Interests. They make it clear that their only hope of Winning is to vote to support each other's understandably unacceptable Private Interests.
A more important action is the positive raising of awareness and understanding of the Good Objectives that need to be understood to be the aspirations of human activity, the Public Interest. It is very difficult to argue against the value of the Public Interest in developing lasting improvements for all of humanity, including (especially) future generations. However, it is very easy for people to be temporarily be tempted to be Tribal Regional pursuers, especially if they do not have a solid understanding of what is truly valuable. The response to the increased understanding of climate science is a excellent case study proving how easily people can be tempted to consider their convenience and lower cost of personal enjoyment in their lifetime to be Worthy of being Balanced with consideration of the unsustainability of those ways of living or the damage they cause that Others have to deal with. The political-economic misleading marketing response to improved understanding of climate science has proven the power of regional and tribal Private Interest (incorrectly but effectively being claimed to be regional and tribal Public Interests, as if any sub-group of humanity can claim their sub-group interests from their perspective are valid Public Interests. That is obviously absurd since it leads to the nonsense that any individual's Private Interests can be declared to be the Public Interest ... but that absurdity of individual Private Interest being the Public Interest is the flawed core of the beliefs of many Fighters for Freedom, especially those constantly wrong economists).
The best presentation of the detailed requirements of the Good Objectives of human activity is the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs are the result of many decades of detailed collective global investigation into better understanding the reality of human activities that started in the 1960s. The SDGs include Climate Action. But they make it clear that climate action alone is rather irrelevant. Achieving climate action can even be understood to be easier to do as the other SDGs are achieved, and vice versa.
So the best action is raising awareness and understanding of the importance of all leaders in business and politics being evaluated for their worthiness of their Leadership position based on the honesty and amount of effort to raise general public awareness and better understanding of the importance of achieving all of the SDGs, especially the importance of responsible limitation of pursuits of Private Interests to ensure the most rapid achievement of the Public Interest of the SDGs.
Discouraging people from trying to secretively or 'Regionally Legally' temporarily Win by getting away with Private Interest actions that are contrary to achieving the Global Public Interest will require the ability to penalize anyone who can be shown to have acted in a way that is contrary to the Global Public Interest. That means the end of National Sovereignty on matters that affect the achievement of the Global Public Interest. There are already global sanctions on Nations that are attempted to be carefully targeted at the offending people who try to hide within a nation.
That concept of justified removal/bypassing of sovereignty simply needs to be extended to penalize all of the people who try to Win through actions that are contrary to achieving the SDGs. Any nation that fails to properly limit the actions within its influence, because they '(paraphrasing John Stuart Mill) let a considerable number of their population grow up mere children, incapable of being acted on by rational consideration of distant motives, being easily tempted by harmful Private Interests' does not deserve sovereign freedom from Global actions targeting the unacceptable actions attempting to be gotten away with. And the response to Team Trump's irresponsible action plans regarding climate impacts shows that global support exists to pursue targeted penalties on 'Regionally Legal Unacceptable Winning'.
Support for penalties on actions that are contrary to the Global Public Interest SDGs exists in the USA and many other nations. But growth of popularity is restricted by the powerful temptation/addiction to the dogmatic and undeniably wrong belief that more Freedom is will develop lasting Good Results. And the resistance to raised awareness and acceptance of that understanding is fuelled by the magnitude of development in the wrong direction that must be 'corrected'.
The support for the changes required by climate science could be increased by connecting the support for all of the SDGs. Anyone who shows any interest in any one of the SDGs (or any part of any one of the SDGs), should be able to extend their understanding to the importance of achieving all of the SDGs, including climate action. The result would be the opposite of the Unite the Right gathering up of people with harmful Private Interests. It would be the Uniting of all of the people with Private Interests in achieving part of the SDGs to support all other pursuers of SDGs. An example would be ending the in-fighting between 'people wanting to help improve things for the less fortunate' and 'people wanting to reduce the harm done by the burning of fossil fuels'. The less fortunate can only be sustainably helped by actions that do not increase or prolong the burning of fossil fuels. It would also reduce arguments about 'total population' and 'impacts of human activity' since reducing the impacts of the highest impacting people allows for more people to live decently with acceptable total impact, and the other SDGs include actions to limit total population.
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scottfree1 at 03:08 AM on 7 December 2017No climate conspiracy: NOAA temperature adjustments bring data closer to pristine
Corrupting good data with bad for the sake of "science"
Moderator Response:[DB] Please limit image displayed width to 450.
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scottfree1 at 02:56 AM on 7 December 2017No climate conspiracy: NOAA temperature adjustments bring data closer to pristine
"The adjustments are scientifically necessary"
But are they actually science?
When the hypothesis is not supported by the data you change the hypothesis NOT the data.So lets look at the 34 (yes 34) "official" Nasa/Giss temperature records issued between 1998-2011. In this "unbiased" purely "scientific" process of "correcting" temp data you might expect near 50/50 distribution of +/- adjustments? Well, not so much, of the 34 adjustments 33 raised current temps and lowered historical temps. The odds of 33 to 1 distribution? A most reeasonable and unbiased 1 in 505,300,000 or 20x worse than hitting the super lotto..
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scottfree1 at 02:26 AM on 7 December 2017Homogenization of Temperature Data: An Assessment
Investigation of methods for hydroclimatic data homogenization E. Steirou, and D. Koutsoyiannis, Investigation of methods for hydroclimatic data homogenization, European Geosciences Union General Assembly 2012, Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 14, Vienna, 956-1, doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.23854.31046, European Geosciences Union, 2012.
In total we analyzed 181 stations globally. For these stations we calculated the differences between the adjusted and non-adjusted linear 100-year trends. It was found that in the two thirds of the cases, the homogenization procedure increased the positive or decreased the negative temperature trends.
The use of homogenization procedures and tend to indicate that the global temperature increase during the last century is between 0.4°C and 0.7°C, where these two values are the estimates derived from raw and adjusted data, respectively.
It turns out that these methods are mainly statistical, not well justified by experiments and are rarely supported by metadata. In many of the cases studied the proposed corrections are not even statistically significant.
Moderator Response:[DB] Linked to the paper for you. Please learn to do this yourself.
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John ONeill at 20:24 PM on 6 December 2017Renewables can't provide baseload power
The proposition that 100 percent renewable energy is both possible and affordable is about to be tested in the way that really matters - in the Washington DC Superior Court. Mark Jacobson, who backs 100%, is suing Chris Clack, lead author of a paper claiming that for US electricity, 80% is an achievable figure, with the balance being legacy nuclear, biofuels, and natural gas. There's an interesting graph from the late David Mackay, plotting population density and energy consumption per head against the area required for various renewable technologies measured in watts per square metre. http://www.inference.org.uk/sustainable/data/powerd/HiRes/PPPersonVsPDen2WA.eps.png A few countries in the 'low energy use' quadrant, and even fewer in the ' low population density ' area , actually do manage 100% renewable electricity, but that's mostly hydro. Denmark claims about 40% from wind. However the eastern and western sections of the Danish grid are actually more closely tied to, respectively, Norway and Sweden ( with ten times the capacity of the whole Danish grid ) and Germany ( about twenty times as big ), than they are to each other. Energy flows, and CO2 produced by electricty generation, can be seen in real time here -https://www.electricitymap.org/?wind=false&solar=false&page=country&countryCode=DK The island of El Hierro, in the Canaries, also gets about 40% of its power from wind, using pumped hydro up to a handy volcanic crater to balance lulls. http://euanmearns.com/el-hierro-october-november-2017-performance-update/#more-20384 Of countries invested heavily in solar, Italy and Greece manage about 8% of domestic generation, averaged over the year, much less in winter. Mark Jacobson's team has drawn up 100% renewable scenarios for fifty US states and about a hundred countries. http://thesolutionsproject.org/why-clean-energy/ In nearly every simulated case, wind and solar make up about 90 to 95% of the total projected energy use, compared to about one percent worldwide today. Jacobson claims this is possible, at least in the US, with no energy crops and practically no additional hydro dams, just more grid interconnections and more generators on the existing dams. Clack says, a bit more circumlocuitously, that he's a halfwit. http://www.vibrantcleanenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/ReplyResponse.pdf
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nigelj at 17:11 PM on 6 December 2017The moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the Republican Party
Scaddenp @20, where have you been living? Leighton Smith has been doing the 1ZB talk back radio show for about 20 years, 9am-12am. He has even won awards, despite his absolute nonsense, so his profile is quite high. He is an institution.
He even initiated a ghastly climate debate on television. I used to listen but not much now, its always the same rubbish. Don't worry you haven't missed much.
I do listen to talkback radio a little. I live alone, semi retired, like to see what people think. A lot of its poison of course. Sometimes I wonder why I bother.
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scaddenp at 14:14 PM on 6 December 2017The moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the Republican Party
Nigel - well amazingly, I have never heard of him. I dont think I have ever willingly listened to talkback radio, but surprised I havent had people push this stuff at me. Hopefully it means his profile is quite low. Is Auckland radio denizen?
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John Hartz at 11:45 AM on 6 December 2017The moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the Republican Party
Recommended supplemental readings:
Instrument of Power: How Fossil Fuel Donors Shaped the Anti-Climate Agenda of a Powerful Congressional Committee by Marianne Lavelle & David Hasemyer, InsideClimate News, Dec 5, 2017
"Alternative Facts" about Climate Change by Ben Santer, Observations, Scientific American, Dec 5, 2017
Top US firms including Walmart and Ford oppose Trump on climate change by Richard Luscombe, Guardian, Dec 1, 2017
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nigelj at 11:05 AM on 6 December 2017The moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the Republican Party
Villabaloo @15, interesting that you mention Rush Limbaugh. We have our own equivalent in NZ, a guy called Leighton Smith. Fortunately he announced just a day ago that is retiring next year. Yay! I think hate merchant sums up their style.
Everyday his talk back radio is the same garbage: climate change is allegedly a "scam", what about the medieval warm period?, we are coming out of the little ice age, there is no consesus and so on, ad nauseum. No matter how many times you point out the huge holes in these arguments, you just get brushed off or called names or are labelled a pc leftist. Its ironic becuase my politics are so middle ground overall, that if I gave a lecture on politics and economics, it would probably send people to sleep.
These denialists are often just dummies, but the ones who worry me are the intelligent ones that are driven by politics, and very manipulative of public opinion. And Smith is not totally unintelligent.
Then you get lectured by Mr Smith about how everything is "too pc" or a "socialist conspiracy" and how multiculturalism is evil, taxation is theft, etc, etc in a constant stream of angry ranting and believe me this guy gets angry, maybe partly to attract attention to get ratings, and partly because he is naturally angry. He swears on radio sometimes (while complaining about the language of the younger generation).
Does that all sound like RL?
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NorrisM at 09:33 AM on 6 December 2017The moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the Republican Party
Phillipe Chantreau and nigelj
Anyone trying to understand what has happened to the US over the last 30 years would do well to read Mark Lilla's book "The Once and Future Liberal - After Identity Politics". Lilla is Professor of Humanities at Columbia University. It also suggests a map forward for the Democrats if they want to get back to a position of power. His premise is that the Democrats have to "get their hands dirty" and get back to politics at the state level.
One of the persons quoted recommending the book on the book jacket is Steven Pinker.
As far as American politics go, there is a crucial decision coming from the US Supreme Court which was heard in late October. It relates to the constitutionality of "gerrymandering". Of all things, I think it is this ability to play around with shape of the voting districts which has caused the Republican party to take such a radical swing to the right. Even with Gorsuch on the bench, my understanding is that Roberts actually stayed on so he could participate in this case and a few others. Even with Gorsuch Roberts has the casting vote.
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villabolo at 09:12 AM on 6 December 2017The moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the Republican Party
Villabolo#15,
The United States appears to be the world's village idiot.
I forgot to mention Russia. Strong deniers there with the oil mafia in charge and enriching Putin.
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villabolo at 09:09 AM on 6 December 2017The moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the Republican Party
Nigelj #14,
Something weird and dangerous is happening in America. It's a whole combination of things, extreme partisan divisions, crazy economics...
The political extremism has been 30 years in the making though it's gotten to be real noticeable since the Bush administration.
This is the result of 30 years worth of hate radio, starting with Rush Limbaugh, and 20 years of hate television, starting with Fox News. Hate sells (Limbaugh's $400 million contract for 8 years!) and is used to control people.
Throughout those 30 years our productivity has doubled but the salaries of most has not. Except, of course for the upper 1%.
Unfortunately, I see no end for this in this country (USA). Fortunately we're flanked by
Europe we all know about. Lesser known by the public is that China is getting into the renewable energy bandwagon. Their wind energy productivity is increasing by about 50% per year and they plan to phase out gasoline and diesel cars by 2030. So much for Lord Monckton's Chinese "socialist" conspiracies.
The United States appears to be the world's village idiot.
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nigelj at 06:15 AM on 6 December 2017The moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the Republican Party
Something weird and dangerous is happening in America. It's a whole combination of things, extreme partisan divisions, crazy economics, people reduced to living in trailor parks on crazy subsistence level wages and minimal invalids benefits, alternative facts, anti intellectualism, anti globalisation, anger, climate issues, corruption and confused ethics.
Rome collapsed due to a combination of factors, possibly just overwhelming their civilisation, including some similar ones to America notably over extended empire, and financial problems, corruption as well as barbarian invasions. This is described in the book the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire, in 6 volumes, by Edward Gibbon in 1776 ( a short one volume version is available). Other societies have collapsed due to environmental problems, described by Jared Diamond.
The thing that strikes me is many of these societies collapsed due to a combination of problems building up. Maybe it reaches a point where society can no longer cope and adapt, and the whole thing collapses unpredictably.
Civilisation does not come with some guarantee of success and survival.
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Philippe Chantreau at 05:27 AM on 6 December 2017The moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the Republican Party
I'd like to celebrate December 5th as the first day for me to be in complete agreement with NorrisM (or is it T. Piketty?). Fiscal conservatism in the US has become nothing but a campaigning rethorical tool and has not existed in government actions for a long time, regardless of who has been in power. It is rather ironic that countries usually perceived as "liberal" (in the popular, social, US meaning), like Norway, have achieved enough fiscal conservatism over years that they are now in a position to use the money saved from their oil business to successfully withstand the end of oil as their financial foundation.
In the grand scheme of things, it boils down to corruption. There is a level of corruption beyond which any system ceases to function in a way that is conducive to progress and sustained well being for the majority of the population. The US has made a lot of efforts to remove effectively corrupt actions and methods from the legal realm, changing them into acceptable practices, without in depth thought about the full array of long term consequences. These consequences will hit nonetheless, because reality always wins, and physics always win.
It is a sad time to watch what is happening right now in the States, my adopted country. It has devolved into some weird cargo cult. Even the savviest of power players are struggling to keep track of what is real. Even the financial/economic world has that problem with the thing they know best: money. The bullshit wars inaugurated by Clinton1/Bush have taken off with the full force of the digital age and run completely out of control. We'll see what comes out of it.
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nigelj at 05:13 AM on 6 December 2017The moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the Republican Party
Yes science denial, red fear and anti globalisation is all mixed in together and reinforces itself. Its badly informed, reactionary, emotive conspiracy theory clap trap.
Agenda 21 is a good largely commonsense set of human rights standards, sustainable development goals and environmental policies. Most of the critics have probably never read it, and just get played by the leading critics who have ulterior business motives to object to it. The agenda is voluntary.
Wikipedia has a summary on Agenda 21,and link to the full agenda. Its an environmental and human rights agenda for the 21st century, not chapter 21 out of a manifesto for the common ownership of the means of production. Get real you conspiracy theory people. You already accept plenty of safety rules like flusing toilets, air bags in cars, the environment is a similar issue. Quality of life is as important as economic growth.
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nigelj at 05:03 AM on 6 December 2017The moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the Republican Party
NorrisM@10, Picketty sounds right about why the wealthy like debt financing. Interesting thought. I have not read Pickettys books, but have read plenty of articles on his work.
I think the wealthy, and the corporate sector also hope that large debt financing will force governments to privatise assets, and cut welfare benefit spending which they like to see cut.
I also think debt should be kept low, and not huge debt passed onto future generations.
However debt doesn't have to be zero. I'm a little bit of an old fashioned Keynsian, who believes its ok for governments to borrow and run up debt in recessions, provided they pay the debt back in good economic times, by running budget surpluses. This basically keeps debt low over the long term. In NZ we have legislation requiring this called The Fiscal Responsibility Act, which permits borrowing, but requires debt be kept low (in essence), and all parties have abided by this legislation. Over the last 25 years our government debt has been very low. Its simply not permitted to cut taxes if they increase deficit and debt.
If countries have very high debt like Greece, and they go into recession, they can't borrow, and have to slash costs, and it can lead to an economic disaster and serious poverty. This is where America is going.
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NorrisM at 03:41 AM on 6 December 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #48
Moderator,
I understand this is where I should be posting something which is not specifically "on topic" elsewhere.
From another website, I have learned that there is a climate change case moving through the US court system which could have significant ramifications on US climate change action well beyond the Scott Pruitt proposal for a "red team blue team" analysis.
The name of the case is Juliana v. United States which was filed in 2015 by 21 young plaintiffs who have claimed that their constitutional rights had been violated by government inaction on climate change.
Obviously a decision by the courts could have more legal ramifications on the Trump administration than a "red team blue team" analysis because the decision would in some ways be binding on the government. Obviously, the difficulty with a case like this is what could the court say that could really be binding on the government other than make some declarations as to their conclusions on the climate science based upon the evidence adduced?
Supposedly the government is having a difficult time responding to this challenge because even "luke warmers" like Judith Curry are not ready to participate unless they can be assured of no political interference with their views on where we are with climate change. I suspect that this very same reluctance on the part of "lukewarmers" may be styming Scott Pruitt's efforts re a red team blue team approach.
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NorrisM at 03:23 AM on 6 December 2017The moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the Republican Party
nigelj @ 2
"There is a certain twisted logic, keeping your donors and supporters satisfied, but it's all still gone too far and is a morally bankrupt decision not in the countries interests."
I think I have expressed my disgust elsewhere on this website with what the Republicans are doing with their tax plan notwithstanding my "questioning" stance on various climate issues.
But there is some logic from the Republican standpoint (or at least those who run the Republican party).
Thomas Piketty in his book "Capital" has an explanation for why the elites prefer financing government expenditures through debt rather than taxes. In the case of taxes, there really is nowhere to fund these expenditures except from the wealthy. However, through the use of debt financing, guess who effectively purchases the money instruments issued? The wealthy. In this way, they continue to "get a return" on the funds lent to the government rather than it just being "taken away" from them by way of increased taxes. Because I am fiscally conservative, I believe that we should be paying our way with increased taxes rather than burdening our children with more debt. But I think Piketty has it right as to why the wealthy prefer deficit financing.
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John Hartz at 01:54 AM on 6 December 2017The moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the Republican Party
Recommended supplemental reading:
Top US firms including Walmart and Ford oppose Trump on climate change by Richard Luscombe, Guardian, Dec 1, 2017
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knaugle at 01:46 AM on 6 December 2017The moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the Republican Party
It's off topic, but this just appeared as an Los Angelas Times article...
Climate scientists see alarming new threat to California
Interesting read.
Moderator Response:[JH] For future reference, the appropriate place for a post like the above would be the comment thread of the most recent SkS Weekly News Roundup.
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Ogemaniac at 23:16 PM on 5 December 2017The moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the Republican Party
And to think the question was biased in favor of conservatives in two ways
1: A "decade from now" is not the long-run equilibrium. The basic effect of these tax cuts is a boost to GDP due to the increased deficit spending, and a long-run drag as we pay ever-growing interest in on.
2: It focuses on GDP, not GNI. The problem with GDP is that it counts as a positive income "earned" by foreigner investors inside the US. Most of the purported GDP gains are merely a reflection of foreign investors reaping a tax windfall and having more bonds to buy (likely, at higher interest as well!).
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Thiristaer at 22:32 PM on 5 December 2017The moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the Republican Party
The % of GDP cost is an excellent point. Especially when it’s coupled with the idea that costs to mitigate climate change now reduce the risk of greater costs in the future.
Unfortunately, that sounds just like the kind of mumbo jumbo about “tax cuts paying for themselves.” Oh wait, but many Americans totally buy that. Hhhmmm
What you say about science denial actually being rooted in Red Fear and Anti-Globalism is spot on. I’ve heard it over and over again. Let’s remember that the Trump campaign was able to turn the climate debate in its favor not by denying the science (“Chinese hoax”) but by playing to Exceptional American‘s idea of fairness (The Paris Agreement/America First.)
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ubrew12 at 12:53 PM on 5 December 2017The moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the Republican Party
If you wait long enough, deniers often reveal themselves as 'defenders of the homeland against communist and globalist takeover'. They see that climate change requires a 'one-for-all and all-for-one' approach, and Big Fossils tells them that's UN Agenda 21 and the end of freedom as we know it. At times like these, I try to remind them that, if they used a toilet today (or even had access to one), they are already taking orders from the 'Big Guvment', to save them from their own filth (liquid in that case, but in climate change it's their gaseous filth they need saving from). And they've been doing this for 150 years, apparently not aware of their 'communism', and that its been costing them in taxes, all this time, about 1% of their GDP to save their children from dying of cholera (but just look at that cost, mon Deiu! btw, this is about the same % of GDP that fighting climate change is expected to cost if we start soon). I was brought to this realization by skepticalscience, btw!
The magic of the market can (and should) be directed to bring us the latest wizbang ideas at the 'lowest entropy' sector of human development (computers, information, electronics). Sadly, someone still needs to be there to take out the trash (the 'highest entropy' sector), or we will literally drown in it. Turns out: the captains of capitalism ain't interested (garbage collection isn't sexy, I guess), which leaves the sadly benighted public sector. It always falls to the public sector to tell the public to put a toilet in their house, and use it. Using it, however, hasn't left the public powerless to defend itself from the clutches of the commune, for some strange reason. And that reality is worth repeating to the denial community.
There's nothing wrong with fossil fuels. Fossils just needs to pick up its trash. And... there's the rub.
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nigelj at 08:13 AM on 5 December 2017The moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the Republican Party
"When moral and secular authority join to convince the public to 'just trust me' on reality (to use a favority phrase of Mr Trump), then that's the path people take. "
Yes absolutely. People hurting or confused by complexity and poverty, turn to public figures especially dangerous demagogues, who will find scapegoats. Conspiracy theories take presidence over objective reality, and are a form of escapism. There's also a belief in "truthiness" which I think is over emphasis on gut instincts.
If the problem is misdiagnosed, the results will not work. America has places hurting like detroit, but this is due to automation as much as jobs lost to mexico and free trade like this has benefits as well as some problems. You have to help these people left behind, with retraining and relocation allowances, or income support, or maybe some universal basic income scheme, otherwise its going to get ugly. Yet this is an anathema to Republicans.
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ubrew12 at 06:58 AM on 5 December 2017The moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the Republican Party
Perhaps this comes down to whether one believes reality to be objective or subjective. Subjective reality can be obtained from authority figures (because going against them is more painful). When moral and secular authority join to convince the public to 'just trust me' on reality (to use a favority phrase of Mr Trump), then that's the path people take. The purpose of Fox News is to emphasis the 'moral rightness and necessity' of taking that path. If reality is objective, then wonk opinion matters. Scientists matter on scientific matters, and economists on economic matters, and this is regardless if they are spouting 'inconvenient truths'. As regards the recent tax cuts, some people with little regard for objective history will be condemned to repeat it, I guess. The main thing is to keep the pillars of free speech, so that the wonks can remain a buzzing fly in the GOP ointment. That's the real danger right now, to this website and others messaging objective truths that many in authority don't want to hear.
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nigelj at 06:54 AM on 5 December 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #48
Daniel Mocsny @5, what you say is pretty interesting, but the environmental movement does spend a lot of time suggesting things individuals can do to change their lifestyles (regardless of what government does or doesn't do). For example reducing consumption, using low energy lighbulbs, theres a large list of things, but the point is you can only repeat this so many times, and its more or less a finite list well known by now. We can't force this onto people. Anyway this is why enviromentalists concentrate also on what governments could do as well.
The problem is often cost related. Electric cars have been just out of cost reach of many people, and even if you are worried about climate change, it's a big thing to find money for an electric car. This is of course now changing as prices drop, and the technology improves, and we may be near a tipping point of exponential growth in this technology.
There's much sensible government can do to help electric cars, and other issues, such as small subsidies, recharging stations, carbon fee and dividend schemes. It seems clear to me fixing the climate issue is ideally a combination of private individual action, corporate action and some government action, in a partnership approach. This is idealistic, but when I'm convinced of something, it's important to spell out the proper way. Of course as you correctly say the "oligarchs have captured the regulators", but we cannot simply accept that is how it must be. It has to change somehow, and I suspect it will change and presidencies and congress change towards people more prepared to confront the issue. The point is idealism has it's place, as does consideration of the full picture on what everybody should do on the climate issue, or we loose a rational and positive path forwards, and any semblance of a coherent overall plan.
I like your moral outrage point, and it is something that can work well at an individual sort of level. But we are still left with figuring out the best way of communicating the science, and the risks posed to humanity. Personally I think the IPCC have done a good job at a technical level, and it's hard to see how their reports could be fundamentally better or radically different, in approach and style. Scaremongering has no place in technical reports, although risks should certainly be underlined boldly.
Perhaps it's more up to scientists in the media, and also politicians and business people to help spread the message. They can talk more freely than the iPCC. Scientists have done ok, but are not trained public relations people. Messages from politicians and business have been mixed, and often non existent from these two groups.So you see we haven't really delivered the message all that well in the past in some respects. I think if a few of these people started talking about the risks of climate change,in a cool way but emphasising the high level of risk it would help. Of course there are 101 reasons why they are reluctant, but perhaps its time they looked at their moral bottom lines.
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Daniel Mocsny at 05:29 AM on 5 December 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #48
Should we use fear, optimism, facts, or something else to motivate people to do everything in their power to rape the planet less hard? The proof is in the pudding. When someone figures out the right message, we'll see everyone around them slashing their individual carbon footprints, in a steadily expanding circle. We'll see fossil fuel companies getting worried as they notice their business cratering in particular geographic areas, and looking for ways to restore demand. As I have never heard of this occurring - there is no community in the developed world where people en masse have adopted low-carbon behaviors across the board, and the behavior pattern is spreading relentlessly outward - then it is likely that nobody on this panel or anywhere else has any evidence-based idea of how to present climate change to the public. We might as well speculate on the best strategy for curing Huntington's disease (a disease that nobody knows how to cure yet), when we're still at the stage of reiki, homeopathy, leeches, and purgatives.
The melting glaciers don't care whether people are optimistic, pessimistic, despairing, dismissive, or hopeful, because emotions don't affect the rate of warming. Only actions do. Individuals who experience the full range of emotional reactions to climate change messaging continue to climb in their automobiles every morning, and book holiday flights regularly. You can see how people are acting by glancing at any highway or airport. Each airliner (a carbon-spewing flying fossil fuel tank) probably carries the full range of opinions on climate change. Look around the pages of your Facebook friends - how many are festooned with largely unwitting photographic boasts of how hard they raped the planet on their last holiday trip? Even many so-called climate activists continue to engage in the fossil-fueled gang-rape of the planet. People have somehow mastered the trick of compartmentalizing their personal assaults on the climate off from whatever they may believe about the climate.
As the election of Donald Trump should have made abundantly clear, government cannot be relied upon exclusively to solve the problem for us. The great hope of the environmental movement - that we can bypass the individual, who is the unit of climate change causation, and invoke collective magic - has played into the hands of the oligarchs who long ago perfected the formula for capturing the regulators. Unfortunately for the biosphere and its human and non-human residents, the environmental movement has focused almost exclusively on obtaining government regulations, when this is perhaps the easiest strategy for oligarchs to counter.
So forget trying to motivate people with optimism or fear. We need a good healthy dose of moral outrage. When you see someone raping the planet with their automobiles, holiday trips, etc., react to them the same way you would react to seeing someone doing something that is morally outrageous (such as killing a kitten). As a culture, we care more about the welfare of individual kittens (even though domestic cats are nowhere near endangered as a species) than we care about the welfare of the biosphere on which cats and every other known living thing depends.
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nigelj at 05:24 AM on 5 December 2017The moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the Republican Party
"Theres just no logic to the Republican tax plan at all, and it is a shameless self serving give away to business interests"
Actually a correction. There is a certain twisted logic, keeping your donors and supporters satisfied, but it's all still gone too far and is a morally bankrupt decision not in the countries interests.
America will also be financially bankrupt if it keeps cutting taxes and increasing spending on military. Debt is already at nearly 100% of gdp well above IMF recomendation of 60% maximum of gdp, and is something like 13 trillion dollars. It cant go on forever without disastrous consequences.
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nigelj at 05:07 AM on 5 December 2017The moral and intellectual bankruptcy of the Republican Party
The Republican tax policy and climate policy simply doesn't make any sense to me either. A general tax cut doesnt make sense. America is not a high tax country contrary to the bizarre claims of some people. Its tax rates are very significantly below the OECD average, as a total tax burden, shown here and here for example. Therefore its hard to see a pressing need for a tax cut in general terms.
The country doesn't need general tax cuts. It's obviously not in recession needing stimulation.
Economists say Americas at near maximum capacity so tax cuts could well lead to inflation, a boom and crash cycle, and larger trade deficits (that Trump says he is worried about) and will certainly add to government debt and deficit loads, which Obama was criticised for. But apparently high debt and higher deficits is now "ok". The double standard is breathtaking.
Tax cuts will raise pressure to cut important spending in health, education, NASA, and climate research.
Theres just no logic to the Republican tax plan at all, and it is a shameless self serving give away to business interests. Economists say most of the corporate tax cut will go to executive pay and shareholders, not pay of ordinary workers.
There may be a need to tidy up deductions, cut taxes on poor people, and some small corporate tax cut, but any of these cuts should be revenue neutral surely? Balanced by tax increases (maybe a carbon tax). But the Republicans are in total denial about the climate issue as well.
I'm not an advocate for high taxes as France has for example, more a middle ground approach, but the Republicans have lost touch with reality.
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nigelj at 04:27 AM on 5 December 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #48
Thiristaer, fair comment. Cynics, denialists.
The cynics like to feel they have some special insight that makes them superior, like people who believe in conspiracy theories. They do not. They are either dumb, or intellectually lazy and mostly terribly insecure and deeply afraid to admit they were wrong, so they get locked into beliefs regardless of reality.
A good read on genuine healthy scepticism "Skeptic, by Michael Shermer"
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Thiristaer at 03:46 AM on 5 December 20172017 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #48
Nigelj
Those are not skeptics. If skepticism was their bag they would apply an equal level of scrutiny to the “research“ they base their conclusions on and any/all research that points in another direction.
Their behavior fits better within the definition of cynicis. To title them skeptics is an insult to those of us who are genuinely inquisitive and love nothing more than gaining new knowledge by discovering we were wrong about some.
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nigelj at 12:44 PM on 4 December 2017There once was a polar bear – science vs the blogosphere
Some people probably consider Crockfords views have "truthiness" because they tell people what they want to hear, and are consistent with their world view, therefore she is an "expert". I think that's how it works. Expertise as normally and properly defined doesn't even enter into it.
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Bob Loblaw at 07:57 AM on 4 December 2017There once was a polar bear – science vs the blogosphere
I perused through Matthew L's list of Crockford's publications. I followed the link to the two Comments posted with respect to journal papers.
- The first comment (on the Science paper) discussed observations of cross-breeding between brown bears and polar bears, and says nothing about climate change or future directions of polar bear habitat reductions. I can't tell from the web page whether the comment is strictly an on-line comment or whether itt appeared in print. (The paper is from 2012.)
- The second link (to the Current Biology paper) is also a paper about historical brown bear and polar bear hybridization, but I see no comments listed at all. Using that web page's search tool produced no material written by Susan Crockford. The paper is from 2011.
It is interesting to note that in the first comment, Susan Crockford lists her affiliation as "Department of Anthropology ... University of Victoria". The department's faculty listing states that she is an Adjunct Assistant Professor. Being an adjunct carries a lot less weight than being a university employee.
https://web.uvic.ca/calendar2014/FACS/FoSoS/DoAn/index.html
Desmog.ca also has a story on this paper, which includes an interview with one of the authors of the paper - Ian Stirling. I've met him ,and he is a real polar bear expert. His opinion of Susan Crockford, expressed in the story, is not flattering.
Mathew L's depiction of Crockford as a relevant expert is a classic example of the denialist use of Fake Experts:
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jsmith at 07:52 AM on 4 December 2017Is there a case against human caused global warming in the peer-reviewed literature? Part 1
Honestly I'm not sure where to comment this, but there's a paper listed as by Lamar Alexander here https://www.skepticalscience.com/peerreviewedskeptics.php?s=195 that is actually by AJR Alexander, so that paper should be removed. I'd do it myself but I can only tell how to add papers, not remove them.
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