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Tom13 at 03:08 AM on 17 November 2017An Inconvenient Sequel – the science, history, and politics of climate change
tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/northwestatlantictrends.htm
NOAA is only 2.39mm MSL rise for miami beach, 2.32mm MSL rise per year for Daytona beach, FL.
Nigelj is citing 8.4mm per year.
The NOAA data should be a better gauge of whether a jump to 26.mm per year is even remotely likely. keep in mind that in order to reach 7 feet, the rate of sea level increase has to be 26mm per year for 82 years straight. Can someone provide a credible estimate as to when 26mm per year will be reached - with the emphasis on credible.
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John Hartz at 02:39 AM on 17 November 2017On climate and global leadership, it's America Last until 2020
Recommended supplemental reading:
Singing activists interrupt U.S. coal-focused event at United Nations climate conference by Chris Mooney, Energy & Environment, Washington Post, Nov 13, 2017
In Bonn, Trump’s Answer to Global Warming? Drill, Baby, Drill! by Elizabeth Kolbert, Daily Comment, The New Yorker, Nov 15, 2017
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Digby Scorgie at 18:35 PM on 16 November 2017“Toasted, roasted and grilled” or already over the hump?
OPOF et al
By inertia I mean the delay following a change while the planet reaches a new equilibrium. So I understand that bit.
As for feedbacks, to me this implies a non-linear response to changes in GHGs.
I also understand that, without humans, there is a continuing interchange of GHGs between land, atmosphere and ocean. Add human emissions, and there will be a rebalancing of this interchange that will require some time.
I think the latter point is where gws @4 gets his "net" emissions.
I conclude that the Keeling curve will remain flat if our emissions are low enough for the planet to accommodate. But in accordance with IPCC Chapter 6, if our emissions really are zero, the Keeling curve will be declining.
Have I got that right?
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nigelj at 17:34 PM on 16 November 2017On climate and global leadership, it's America Last until 2020
The following article shows how America has had large net benefits from free trade, but also some of the problems with free trade, so is a balanced article:
www.uschamber.com/sites/default/files/open_door_trade_report.pdf
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nigelj at 17:17 PM on 16 November 2017On climate and global leadership, it's America Last until 2020
Donald Trump needs to stop complaining about trade with China. There are two sides to the trade equation. First side is America may have lost some jobs to china, but second side is America gains a vast number of cheap imported consumer products. The benefits of open trade outweigh the costs.
Where Trump may have some case is problems like dumping, hidden subsidies, etc. But he should keep to specific problems like this.
Bernie Sanders is a good honest intellectually clever man, but possibly too leftist for delicate American sensibilities. I suggest Democrats find someone bright, middle of road, charismatic, with no skeletons in the closet, and who stores emails in the right place.
Obama was on right track with his approach to climate change. Get back to his approach.
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Phil Glynn at 16:14 PM on 16 November 2017An Inconvenient Sequel – the science, history, and politics of climate change
Thank you RickG that is very interesting. So the increase of water vapour to date through global warming may have reduced potential sea level rise by a few mm's.
Thanks for link also.
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RickG at 12:37 PM on 16 November 2017An Inconvenient Sequel – the science, history, and politics of climate change
Phil @7, According to the USGS if all the water in the atmosphere were to rain out at once, it would cover the earth with about an inch of water.
https://water.usgs.gov/edu/watercycleatmosphere.html
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NorrisM at 12:06 PM on 16 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
MA Rodger @ 223
Thanks. The video helped. I guess I have to spend some time understanding regression analysis (it is not the first time this has come up). Generally, it seems that what you are really trying to do is determine the slope based upon the data. It was actually another YouTube video of McLoughlin (sp) that was more helpful.
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Eclectic at 12:04 PM on 16 November 2017An Inconvenient Sequel – the science, history, and politics of climate change
Sidd @8 , your point about the difference between "supralinear" versus "exponential" is a very obscure point (at least, to me — and I suspect, to many other readers as well).
Please clarify what you intend. In colloquial English [rather than in strict mathematical jargon] the term "exponential" seems a fair approximation for the increasing rate of sea-level rise which is occurring at present & in the coming decades.
Obviously, there is only a finite tonnage of ice-sheets, so the long-term sea-level rise cannot be truly exponential for millennia. Much of the East Antarctica Ice Sheet will persist for 1000+ years. But the melting of Greenland ice & WAIS . . . could produce a general sea-level rise of about 50 feet by year 2200. And possibly the rise would be higher. All rather uncertain, of course. But none of it looks "good for us".
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sidd at 09:49 AM on 16 November 2017An Inconvenient Sequel – the science, history, and politics of climate change
That SLR graph shows that the rate of SLR is supralinear. But I would not say it is yet evidence for an exponential rise.
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John Hartz at 09:20 AM on 16 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
This just in....
New York City has plenty to worry about from sea level rise. But according to a new study by NASA researchers, it should worry specifically about two major glacier systems in Greenland’s northeast and northwest — but not so much about other parts of the vast northern ice sheet.
The research draws on a curious and counterintuitive insight that sea level researchers have emphasized in recent years: As ocean levels rise around the globe, they will not do so evenly. Rather, because of the enormous scale of the ice masses that are melting and feeding the oceans, there will be gravitational effects and even subtle effects on the crust and rotation of the Earth. This, in turn, will leave behind a particular “fingerprint” of sea level rise, depending on when and precisely which parts of Greenland or Antarctica collapse.
Now, Eric Larour, Erik Ivins and Surendra Adhikari of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory have teased out one fascinating implication of this finding: Different cities should fear the collapse of different large glaciers.
These are the melting glaciers that might someday drown your city, according to NASA by Chris Mooney, Energy & Environment, Washington Post, Nov 15, 2017
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MA Rodger at 09:02 AM on 16 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
NorrisM @269.
If you examine my comments above about trends, I have been using the term OLS quite frequently. The term OLS is googleable and the acronym finders that act helpfully (ie not slang, street-speek, etc) all get it at the first, the first and first attempt. Even google's top suggestion is this wikithing page. However, as you are statistic-averse, this little video will tell you all you need to know.
And parallel cirves is not an issue. Likely it would simply suggest use of differing base periods.
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Phil Glynn at 07:18 AM on 16 November 2017An Inconvenient Sequel – the science, history, and politics of climate change
Does anybody know how much rate of sea level rise is affected by the increasing amount of water vapour in the atmosphere? If all the water vapour in the atmospere was to suddenly be returned to the ocean would this be negligible or noticeable?
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nigelj at 06:14 AM on 16 November 2017“Toasted, roasted and grilled” or already over the hump?
Digby Scorgie
"If the curve is flat, then what?"
I think this means our emissions have fallen low enough that all are absorbed by ocean and land sinks.
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nigelj at 06:02 AM on 16 November 2017An Inconvenient Sequel – the science, history, and politics of climate change
Tom13@3,
"There is also evidence that the large increase in the rate circa 1990-2015 is an artifact of the change in method of measurement from tide gauges to satellite. Keep in mind that rate of sea level rise based on tide gauges doesnt reflect the same exponential rate of rise."
The graph of sea level rise posted by moderator appears to have curve fitted showing acceleration over period 1990 - 2016. Please note change from tide gauges to satellite data happened about 1995 so might explain a sudden change around 1995, but it can't explain curve acceleration over the full period in the graph.
Satellite data is more accurate than tide gauges.
To repeat, the physics would also expect acceleration.
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nigelj at 05:39 AM on 16 November 2017An Inconvenient Sequel – the science, history, and politics of climate change
Tom13@3, you are forgetting that the basic physics would expect an acceleration.
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nigelj at 05:36 AM on 16 November 2017An Inconvenient Sequel – the science, history, and politics of climate change
Good article. So conservatives claim Al Gore politicised the issue. Yet his book An Inconvenient Truth discussed science, and didn't mention politics or even the key denialist arguments.
In all fairness and honesty he did write a book criticial of republican attitudes to science but this was a separte sort of thing coming well after an Inconvenient Truth. Gore has his faults, but IMO is mostly making the effort to be on the right side of science, and future well being of humanity. I have no right to expect more.
I think it's actually the Republicans and many conservative leaning people that tend to politicise climate change. Listen to their rhetoric and its some variation on liberal scam, a chinese conspiracy, a socialist scam, big government, nanny state, secret tax scheme, evil agenda 21, in a long predictable political rant mostly free of scientific awareness. Their claims are also nonsensical and unproven.
Sometimes its more subtle but the message is the same. But what is all that if its not politicising the issue?
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Tom13 at 05:32 AM on 16 November 2017An Inconvenient Sequel – the science, history, and politics of climate change
DB] And yet evidence exists that recent SLR is exponential.
There is also evidence that the large increase in the rate circa 1990-2015 is an artifact of the change in method of measurement from tide gauges to satellite. Keep in mind that rate of sea level rise based on tide gauges doesnt reflect the same exponential rate of rise.
Moderator Response:[DB] "There is also evidence that the large increase in the rate circa 1990-2015 is an artifact of the change in method of measurement from tide gauges to satellite"
Citation, please.
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nigelj at 05:24 AM on 16 November 2017An Inconvenient Sequel – the science, history, and politics of climate change
Tom 13@1
"The current rate of sea level rise (in Florida) is only 3mm per year."
No in parts of Florida its currently approx. 8.4mm year:
sealevelrise.org/florida?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIw5SfhKDB1wIVgwsrCh0tbQTJEAAYASAAEgKXUfD_BwE
This is caused by a combination of factors including climate change, some localised change in the North Atlantic Ocean cycle which may be natural variability, or climate change related, and some land subsidence as well.
The climate change components are modelled to accelerate particularly after 2050, due to increasing rates of ice loss in Greenland etc. Put all those causal factors together and Florida could well have two metres of sea level rise by 2100. This is within our childrens lifetimes so is rapid, and the implications are severe.
Sea level rise in Florida is not all caused by climate change, but climate change is a major factor, and something that can be addressed.
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Philippe Chantreau at 04:59 AM on 16 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
Lastly, this demonstrates generously why having lawyers run any kind of debate about physical reality is the worst idea. I have read enough of NorrisM contributions to see that calling it "one can have questions" is the best possible example of a misrepresentation.
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william5331 at 04:56 AM on 16 November 2017On climate and global leadership, it's America Last until 2020
The hope is that the back lash against Trump and his policies will send America penduluming in the other direction with a vengeance. It seems already to be happening. Perhaps if the Dems can be reformed, we could even get Bernie as the next president.
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Philippe Chantreau at 04:51 AM on 16 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
It's becoming ever more dfficult to take NorrisM seriously. Euphemisms, half-assed language and all around BS have dug their way so deep in the culture that even their chief users get tangled in the rotten semantics with which they have flooded the world.
Here is the interesting argument that a misrepresentation is better than a lie. NorrisM, in a tremendous rethorical effort, throws a little analysis of why the word lie is mean because it implies intent to deceive, then goes on to misrepresetation as if it did not imply an intent to deceive. That is really funny. NorrisM is explaining to us that it is bad to tell lies because that's the crude way to do things; misrepresentations are much better because they don't readily open one up for being exposed as a fraud. A misrepresentation is a higher skilled sort of lie, it uses better language, it's what smart liers do. Yeah, misrepresentations are much better. So are deceptions, dissimulations and all manners of devious behaviors that can't be immediately pinned down for what they are. Way to go.
To summarize recent contributions, we've heard it's bad to try to intimidate others in the same post as we received litigation threats, and that misrepresentations are much better than lies. Impressive.
And that's not even counting all the objective stuff about hard data that has been covered by other contributors, who showed that there is no doubt about what is going with Koonin. We're flogging a dead horse here. I'm done.
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NorrisM at 04:28 AM on 16 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
Eclectic @ 267
In Canadian law, we use various levels of the term "misrepresentation", moving from innocent misrepresentation to intentional misrepresentation to fraudulent misrepresentation. This last term, if proven, can put you in jail. It is the one which is equivalent to saying someone has lied.
Moderator. As I have noted before on this website, I never look at WUWT but I promise to do so on Curry's website if I ever see such a statement. If you want to point me to a recent instance on the Curry site, I am happy to go online and make the very same comment and then reference you to my comment.
I just hope everyone appreciates that someone can have questions they would like answered in the area of climate change and also think that what is happening in the US with the Republicans taking health care from millions of people to pay for their tax cuts to the rich is disgusting and raises real questions about the political process in the US. I suspect that Koonin (a Democat, I assume) is also disgusted with the Republicans on that issue. I just do not think people who have different views should be demonized. I think he has the best interests of the US public (you see I do not use the term "the American people") at heart but just has differing views of what that best interest is. I think it is perfectly acceptable for criticisms to be levelled at him as long as they do not go past what I have referred to as "intentional misrepresentation".
Moderator Response:[DB] Off-topic snipped.
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NorrisM at 04:08 AM on 16 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
MA Rodger @ 268
By the use of the term "trend", I am assuming that you do not mean that you add the yearly increases over the period and divide by the number of years which would be the average. Is this a term in statistics? If so, could you point me to a "beginner" summary of statistics terms. I have to admit that I took one course in statistics at university but it was my least favourite subject and that was a long time ago. I get standard deviation and bell curves but suspect that "trend" is a statistical analysis and does not refer to the simple average.
As for my comment on the different rates for satellites and tide gauge, I do not think it was "nonsensical", in that Eclectic understood what I was getting at. What I was saying is that you could have two different measurments of sea level rise but the curves are parallel. Just one above the other in measurements of y axis.
Moderator Response:[DB] Sloganeering snipped.
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Tom13 at 03:02 AM on 16 November 2017An Inconvenient Sequel – the science, history, and politics of climate change
From the 8th paragraph of the article -
For instance, South Florida may see 7 feet of sea level rise by 2100. City planners are considering ways to raise parts of the city to deal with this. Oh by the way, yes the best evidence shows we really may get 7 feet by 2100.
7 feet equals 2,134mm. In order to reach 2,134mm in 84, the annual rate of sea level rise needs to be 26mm per year. The current rate of sea level rise is only 3mm per year.
Moderator Response:[DB] And yet evidence exists that recent SLR is exponential.
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PluviAL at 02:50 AM on 16 November 2017Analysis: Global CO2 emissions set to rise 2% in 2017 after three-year ‘plateau’
It may be bad form to be pessimistic but this is one of the most alarming articles I have seen in some time. While it makes clear the thinking behind forecasts, it also shows the lack of allowance for bad news. Credible scientists must be very cautious in their conclusions, meaning they will fail to highlight the more dangerous side of probability, not wanting to be labeled alarmists. Intuitive viewing of both chars shows that bias all to plainly.
Try to put bad news into these charts. Good news is when we advance alternative energy, which had been advancing very nicely, it will be a smooth turning of the curves. But there is potential for a lot of bad news which these charts must accommodate, and these are from nature, on a planetary scale, as seen on the sawtooth nature of land sink rates.Pray for China to take some big steps, they need to lead the big gray world curves in the right direction. US is out cold for the next few years, hopefully enlightened voters will get us to go in the right direction soon, but sloppy policy could cause us to trip into bad suprise feedback loops.
Scary!
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sailingfree at 01:17 AM on 16 November 2017It hasn't warmed since 1998
Good discussion. It would be helpfull to see here the data for 2014,2015, 2016, and 2017, to cinch the warming argument. An updated "escalator" would be dramatic.
Thanks.
Moderator Response:[JH] Your suggestions have been shared with the SkS author team.
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michael sweet at 22:22 PM on 15 November 2017On climate and global leadership, it's America Last until 2020
kulbirdi:
Please list 5 western countries that have bsnned coal use to uspport your wild claim that "using coal energy, but that is banned in many western countries."
According to this article, 6 countries have stated they intend to ban coal use, but all currently use coal. The USA under President Trump is currently encouraging greater use of coal. Why do you require the Chinese to lead the way?
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Paul D at 21:44 PM on 15 November 2017On climate and global leadership, it's America Last until 2020
kulbirdi @ 3
хорошего дня!
China has grown on the back of American and European businesses transfering their manufacturing operations to China. I used to work for a successful British business that did most it's software development and and manufacturing in the UK. It was then taken over by a an American business that then closed down manufacturing in the UK and sent it to China. Software development went to India.
In other words Western companies exported emissions to China.
In any case anyone in the West can refuse to purchase goods manufactured in China, but they don't. There is no law forcing people to buy anything.
That is what capitalism tells us, we all have a free will. Or are you suggesting we don't and that markets need to be controlled based on nationalist principles?
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kulbirdi at 20:58 PM on 15 November 2017On climate and global leadership, it's America Last until 2020
President Trump points out a growing worldwide concern about China trade. China exports goods manufactured by using coal energy, but that is banned in many western countries. This not fair for economy or employment. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology should be implemented worldwide.
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MA Rodger at 20:18 PM on 15 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
NorrisM @265.
Indeed, you do not have it right.
I have taken the data from C&W and from NASA. For each of the two records, I have calculated linear trends through 11-years, from beginning to end of each record.
Thus the latest such trend for C&W is centred on 2008 covering the years 2003-2013. It has a trend of 4.2mm/yr. The data centred 2005-08 all yields trends above 4mm/yr and the data centred 1998-2004 yields trends 3mm/yr ot 4mm/yr. Levels of SLR above 3mm/yr are not evident on the C&W record even in a single year. Prior to this latest acceleration, only 10 years on the 134 year record managed to top 2.5mm/yr.
Your second paragraph begins "From what I have read..." and then delves again into nonsensicalnessism. What do you mean by "They can still show the same acceleration but the measurements do not coincide."?
I should perhaps add that the dip in satelite-derived SLR shown by these 11-yr OLS calculations, illustrated @258 and described @262: that dip would disappear if the suggested-but-unpublished adjustments to TOPEX are borne out. (Note the researchers were not at all happy with Nature's use of the word "SNAFU".) The adjustment removes the dip and reveals a strong acceleration as per the C&W data.
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Eclectic at 19:42 PM on 15 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
There are: misrepresentations, damned misrepresentations, and statistics !
Oh, where is our Disraeli or our Churchill when we need him, eh NorrisM. Churchill, I am sure, would make short work of Koonin and Koonin's misrepresentations — and Churchill would use a three-letter word, not a polysyllabic.
In particular for Koonin's statement on SLR's . . . "The rates since 1993 are at the high end of this range, but are not statistically different from those during the first half of the 20th Century." ~ That being the sort of weasel statistics up with which Churchill would not put.
"Not statistically different" is a term we have heard before — during the transient "Hiatus" in surface temperatures during the Noughties of this Century. ~ A pseudo-analysis by science-denialists, which deliberately and clearly ignored the vast weight of evidence [ocean warming] and ignored the most basic physical processes [CO2/GHG effect] still going on unabated. It was a phrase which sailed very close to, but not quite over the edge of . . . damned misrepresentation. It was designed to pull the wool over the eyes of the casual reader who did not bother to think it through, and who had little climate knowledge.
And now [stated October 2017] Koonin is saying sea-level rise for the 21st Century is as yet not statistically different from earlier times. He ignores the fact that the 1940-ish SLR "bump" was a small and minor variation from the background rising trend, and was quite a different kettle of fish from the high/accelerating rise of recent decades (which has very clear causation by ongoing thermal expansion of the ocean and by large-scale ongoing melting of land-based ice sheets. And Koonin makes his statements despite having the hindsight from (late) 2017.
Such misrepresentation by Koonin (for a man of considerable scientific ability) could not be accidental or unintentional. Indeed, it is all one, with the typical science-denier strategy of continual misrepresentation of what is really happening in our physical world, in regard to AGW. Rather obviously, Koonin is wishing to imply to the casual reader, that Global Warming is non-existent or of minimal importance.
# NorrisM, there is no need for you to reply to my post here. Koonin seems to be on a long campaign of various misrepresentations . . . and I am reasonably sure there is nothing you could say to redeem his current reputation.
We should move on, to the pure science of sea-level rise where of course [re your post #265] there's a small difference of figures from satellite and tide-gauge measurements — since they are measuring two slightly different things [not different by much: but coastal measurements can never be exactly the same as "coastal + mid ocean" ].
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NorrisM at 14:45 PM on 15 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
Phillipe Chantreau @ 263
I have never said that there was a significant difference between your definition and mine. I just felt yours was somewhat softer. The term "ad hominen" in Latin means "at or to the man". The principal point I was trying to make is that this website should not allow posters to allege that particular people are telling or spreading lies. That is a very serious allegation. I agree that no one other than the writer has actually used the noun "liar" but is that not what you call someone who lies? I think I have made my point and I suspect most agree that it is not appropriate to make such allegations when the term "misrepresentation" can be used which probably more accurately describes what the poster intended to say.
Moderator Response:[JH] You wrote:
...this (SkS) website should not allow posters to allege that particular people are telling or spreading lies.
Have you posted a similar statement on Curry's website? On WUWT?
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NorrisM at 14:01 PM on 15 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
MA Rodger @ 262
If I understand you correctly, the satellite data averaged over the last 11 years shows an average increase of 4.2 mm/yr? And in the case of tide gauge data, although the most recent years show an annual increase over 4 mm/yr the average over the last 11 years is something below 3 mm/yr? Your use of the term "trend" suggests that I might not have this right.
From what I have read there seems to be an unresolved discrepancy between satellite readings and tide gauge readings which seems to be borne out by the difference in these rates. They can still show the same acceleration but the measurements do not coincide.
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One Planet Only Forever at 12:47 PM on 15 November 2017“Toasted, roasted and grilled” or already over the hump?
Digby Scorgie@13,
What I have described @14 is also limited to cases where the total human impacts keep CO2 ppm below the level taht would result in significant changes to the feedback mechanisms resulting in an increased amplification of the human impact.
This is the reason to keep the impacts below a 1.5 C impact. Keeping the impacts below 2.0 C also appears to be reaonably safe regarding feedbacks (less safe than 1.5 C), but of course the negative consequences for future generations are significantly higher with a 2.0 C increase than with a 1.5 C increase.
Anyone proposing "acceptability" of total human impacts that are above 2.0 C is being very Irresponsible and very Inconsiderate (putting Private Interests way above the Public Interest).
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One Planet Only Forever at 12:36 PM on 15 November 2017“Toasted, roasted and grilled” or already over the hump?
Digby Scorgie@13,
The complication I see is that the environmental systems are constantly trying to rebalance. So there is a time lag between the changes of the rates of human impacts and the corresponding changes of the Keeling curve.
If human impacts remained constant for an extended, but reasonably short, period of time then the rate of increase of CO2 should also be constant. The complication is that a warmer ocean will likely absorb less CO2. As the constant rate of human impacts goes longer then the rate of CO2 ppm change will increase. Because of the increasing urgency of action to curtail these human impacts, increasing every year that the CO2 level increases, hopefully there will not be a long period of steady significant human impacts.
If human impacts are declining then the rate of increase of CO2 would also be declining.
The constant efforts of the environment to rebalance means that a small but constant amount of human impacts would result in a flat/steady CO2 level in the atmosphere, but the acidification of the oceans would be continuing to happen.
Once human activity impacts are reduced to zero impact on CO2 in the atmosphere the rebalancing/adjustment mechanisms described in Phase 1, 2 and 3 in Box 6.1 of the IPCC report would result in a reduction of CO2 in the atmosphere, but to a level significantly higher than the 280 ppm starting point.
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Digby Scorgie at 10:41 AM on 15 November 2017“Toasted, roasted and grilled” or already over the hump?
OPOF @12
Pardon me while I try to get my head around this. Firstly, I understand that inertia complicates the picture. But I'm thinking of five different ways the Keeling curve can behave:
If the Keeling curve is rising at an accelerating rate, this will be because our emissions are increasing at an accelerating rate?
If the curve is rising at a constant rate, our emissions are remaining constant from year to year?
If the curve is rising, but at a decelerating rate, our emissions are falling?
If the curve is flat, then what?
And then to turn things on their head, if our emissions are zero, then from the IPCC report the Keeling curve will be declining?
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One Planet Only Forever at 09:52 AM on 15 November 2017“Toasted, roasted and grilled” or already over the hump?
Digby Scorgie@10,
Technically I agree that the exact points 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 presented by gws@4 are not exactly what happens at points 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 in your initial question @1.
It may be more appropriate to say:
- the graph of CO2 ppm in atmosphere will be a humped curve with a maximum at point 4 (hopefully that maximum occurs sooner and lower rather than higher and later).
- the graph of the annual human impacts on CO2 in the atmosphere is a curve that is soon to be declining, reaching zero slightly after point 4 in the CO2 ppm curve.
It is also probably more accurate to say that the set of environmental responses to human impacts increasing CO2 in the atmosphere, as presented as Phases 1 through 3 in Box 6.1, begin after any measurable human impact affecting CO2 in the atmosphere occurs. So the rapid atmospheric CO2 draw-downs at the start of Phase 1 have already occurred for the human impacts that were created several decades ago. Even if the termination of human impacts was immediate today only the most recent portion of the 125 ppm surplus CO2 measured today will be reduced at the rapid initial rate of Phase 1 actions.
A more important point is that though the atmospheric CO2 levels will decline after human impacts are ended the damaging changes of ocean acidity will continue to occur. And the 'new' balance point for CO2 in the atmosphere at the distant end of all the adjustments to this damaging spurt of human impacts will likely be above the 280 ppm level. The higher the total spurt of human actions push up CO2 the higher the 'new' balance point will be that atmospheric CO2 drops back down to in the far distant future.
So to be fair to future generations, the current generation is required to remove some of the already created excess CO2. That action is required to minimize the amount of negative impacts and negative challenges for future generations. And that 'sacrifice - no personal benefit' action is primarily the obligation of the already more fortunate portion of the current generation, especially those who benefited most from the burning to date, most especially those who are still trying to benefit even more from the burning of the non-renewable buried hydrocarbons. And that undeniable responsibility for personal sacrifice from the undeserving more fortunate people is a major motivation for the unjustified attacks on climate science.
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JohnSeers at 08:50 AM on 15 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
As far as I can see no-one has used the word "liar" other than NorrisM.
I don't think I have any more to say on that.
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Philippe Chantreau at 07:38 AM on 15 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
NorrisM likes this definition : "an argumentative strategy whereby an argument is rebutted by attacking the character, motive or other attribute of the person rather than attacking the substance of the argument itself."
I said: "the logical fallacy that consists of attacking a person on some irrelevant element in an attempt to invalidate the argument made by that person."
Any attempt at convincing me that there is a significant difference between these two descriptions is an argument in bad faith that has no merit. I know without a doubt that one who would try to do that is trying to take me for a ride. It is total nonsense. I certainly have better things to do with the time given to me in this life than going back over NorrisM overall contribution on this site, but my recollection of said contribution is telling me that there is a pattern here. The abundant verbiage to say what amounts to nothing and the rather laughable litigation threats are also familiar signs. The obligation to remain polite and tolerant toward this kind of sophisticated abuse of the forum was one of the reason why I gave up moderating years ago. It is quite an ungreateful task that the moderatros tackle...
Moderator Response:[JH] Please note my Moderator's comment on NorrisM's most recent post. As far as I am concerned, he is skating on the thin ice of relinquishing his privilege of posting comments on this site.
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MA Rodger at 07:30 AM on 15 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
NorrisM @259.
You are verging into the incomprehensible so you will understand if I am at cross purposes.
You seem to object to the use of recent data but at the same time happy to consider 10+ year assessments of SLR. So let us look at the satellite data (which is available 1993-2017) calculating 11yr OLS trends. Note that IPCC AR5 data collection stopped in 2011 so we have six more years of data. The final 11 years of data used by AR5 showed a trend of 2.8mm/yr and such trends would continue to drop to 2.55mm/yr by the following year. Since that time, SLR has risen sharpely and the last 11 year of data shows a trend of 4.2mm/yr. There is yet no sign of any let-up in that acceleration. (It is running along the same track as shown in the Tamino graphic @258, just past the vertical blue line.)
And using Church & White tidal gauge data (which today only runs to 2013 but AR5 had data to 2009), the final years are running above 4mm/yr while such 11-yr trends calculated through the full record never top 3mm/yr.
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PluviAL at 06:40 AM on 15 November 2017On climate and global leadership, it's America Last until 2020
Too true. Paris agreement had gracefully let us off the hook for our largest responsibility for climate change, while helping us to make the greatest contribution to solving the climate challenge, and garnering the greatest benefit in transition to modern energy regimes, but the archaic structure of our democracy, in its distortion toward rural interests, crashed our efforts to solve the problems of climate change. Sad.
But China may be a great leader. Current grotesque expression of democratic error shows how other ways of guiding social interest may be better structures. I love being in China, in many ways it is quite free, and wise. Let's hope they lead the world to solve this, which could be the greatest challenge for civilization as well as for the species.
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michael sweet at 06:40 AM on 15 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
Norrism:
You and Koonan argue that the CSSR should include the claim that rates of sea level rise in the time era 1920-1950 were compaarable to current rates. Jeverejeva et al 2014 specifically address this claim.
From the introduction to Jevrejeva et al 2014:
"However, there have been suggestions that the rate is not historically exceptional. For example, similar rates were observed in tide gauge records during the period 1920–1950 (Jevrejeva et al., 2006) and in decadal mean rates in the 1950s and 1970s (Church and White, 2006), and even a rate of 5.3 mm·yr−1 centred on the 1980s by Holgate (2007).
To identify the long-term changes and variability of sea level over the past 200 years ..."
From the conclusion:
"However, Fig. 15 and the associated uncertainties discussed in Section 3.4 show that long term estimates of time variable sea level acceleration in 203 year global reconstruction are significantly positive, which supports our previous finding (Jevrejeva et al., 2008a), that despite strong low frequency variability (larger than 60 years) the rate of sea level rise is increasing with time." (my emphasis)
Koonan's claim that the current rate of sea level rise is not exceptional is in contradiction to the conclusions of scientists working in the field. It is not included in the CSSR because scientists have concluded that the rate of sea level rise is accelerating. The current rate of sea level rise is historically exceptional.
In addition, the rate of sea level rise is expected to strongly accelerate in the future.
This is the same conclusion that I posted at the start of this discussion where I provided data showing that the rate of sea level rise has accelerated strongly over the period of satelite analysis. The data show that the rate of acceleration of sea level rise is accelerating.
Koonan and you are attempting to cherry pick sentences that suggest sea level rise is not accelerating and is not a problem. That is in contradiction to the scientific conclusion. The CSSR is required to discuss the scientific conclusion, not some potitically correct BS.
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knaugle at 06:24 AM on 15 November 2017We have every reason to fear Trump’s pick to head NASA
I think you need to look at how some of the other deniers he has placed into office have been behaving. Scott Pruitt, for example, continues to take actions that seem to contradict any possible claim that the scientists at EPA are informing him.
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Paul D at 06:02 AM on 15 November 2017On climate and global leadership, it's America Last until 2020
Trump first!
Everything Trump does and says is for himself and anyone that funds his campaign. His support for 'clean' coal is basically about propping up American coal businesses and paying back their support during the election campaign.
It makes no economic or practical sense to prop up coal and ultimately the US will fall behind if it takes Trump seriously on this issue. My understanding is that the US businesses that matter have no interest in coal.
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NorrisM at 03:51 AM on 15 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
eclectic @ 257
I have made my point and I do not think we need to pursue this any further.
I trust you will agree that no one should be called a liar on this website unless they can prove a statement to be untruthful unless he or she is prepared to back it up in court defending a libel suit. A statement can be wrong but "liar" connotes an intention on the part of the person making it and that is not appropriate on this website. Again, if that is not "ad hominen" I do not know what is.
It remains the case that none of the comments on this thread have "dealt with the substance of the argument itself" which is the following:
"He said that there were rates of increase in the 1920-1950 period comparable to the present and he felt that a more even handed CSSR report would have made reference to this fact in the same way the IPCC did in its Executive Summary to Chapter 3 of the AR5 report."
Koonin is making the point that the failure by the CSSR not to include this statement in the Executive Summary (which the IPCC properly disclosed in AR5 Chp 3 and 13) indicates that the CSSR has an "agenda" it is promoting and is not just reporting, as scientists should do, the scientific information available both for and against the propostion of AGW. It is this very attitude that creates distrust in those (ie X% of the US public) not fully convinced that AGW is as serious as it has been made out to be.
Has anyone commented on this argument of Koonin's? Do you not agree that the CSSR should have followed the same disclosure as the IPCC? And if so, why not?
Moderator Response:[JH] Further regurtitation by you of Koonin's claim about sea level rise will constitute "excessive repetition" and "slogaqneering." As you well know, both are prohibited by the SkS Comments Policy.
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NorrisM at 03:30 AM on 15 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
MA Rodger @ 258
I am not saying that we ignore the most recent measurements since IPCC AR5 but that they have to be taken in context. Here is what Dan Bailey said at post 184 above when responding to a period 2004 to 2008 when things seem to have flattened out or, looking at the above graph, had even declined:
"[DB] In addition, per Willis and Leuiette (2011):
"Because of both uncertainties in the observational systems and interannual variations, it has been estimated that a minimum of 10 years is necessary to meaningfully interpret global trends in sea level rise and its components (Nerem et al., 1999)."
In other words, use the period 1993 onwards just averaging in each subsequent year. My understanding is that we are using 1993 because satellite measurements began around this time. Someone (somewhere) has posted a comment that if the period 1992-1994 had been averaged (as the starting point), the rate of increase would not have been as high as 3.2 mm/yr because 1993 was significantly lower than 1992 and 1994. I have to admit that I do not have a source for this but I suspect this can be easily proven or disproven.
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MA Rodger at 00:46 AM on 15 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
NorrisM @256.
Pointing to a quote up-thread which cautions against using "a couple of years results for an analysis" will not assist you in explaining the high rate of SLR over the period since the IPCC AR5. The following SLR graphic is from Tamino and certainly indicates a strong level of SLR acceleration since the IPCC AR5 analysis. And if you are considering saying that the data supporting that Tamino finding is inadequate, I would suggest you examine the data supporting those accelerations back in the 1940s and see if that is similarly inadequate.
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Eclectic at 16:10 PM on 14 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
With all due respect to you, NorrisM :- my OED defines ad hominem as "Directed to the preferences or principles of the individual, not to abstract truth". Can there be a better English authority than the OED?
Michael Sweet has directed his criticism to the abstract truth which is the evidence of SLR caused by AGW. He has exposed Koonin [or "Noonan", as Sweet's Irish blood seems to mislabel it, often] as presenting flawed, incomplete, false, deceptive & misleading information about SLR (and by extension, about AGW).
Koonin presents information without its proper context, and in a deliberately misleading way. We can be reasonably sure Koonin is being deliberately misleading in this case, because his action here is part of a larger pattern of deceptive & misleading activities in connection with the subject of AGW. And we can be doubly sure of that, because Koonin is an intelligent, science-literate man, in whom such errors are inexcusable & could not occur without deliberate choice by him.
All this reflects very badly on Koonin — reflects very badly on his "preferences and principles". But that is consequential on Koonin's own activities. Sweet points out that Koonin is reprehensibly wrong (but that is not in itself an ad hominem attack).
NorrisM, the question you should ask yourself is: Why should you (or anyone) defend Koonin's untruthful behavior? Koonin for some years now has been bending over backwards to give false & misleading presentation of the science of climate/AGW. There must be some strange subconscious emotional force which compels Koonin to plunge into the fiery heart of madness which is science-denial (and you too, NorrisM, seem a Moth which is attracted into the same flame).
NorrisM, you cannot describe yourself as "luke-warm" when your wings are already badly singed. ;-)
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NorrisM at 14:11 PM on 14 November 2017Sea level rise is exaggerated
Phillipe Chantreau @ 255
This all began on this thread @ 221 with my comment as follows:
"In an earlier post on another thread (which discussion has properly moved to this location) I posed the following question:
'It is interesting that in the above IPCC quote we had similar "high rates" during the period 1920-1950. Curious as to whether there is any explanation of that anomaly.'
I then referenced the fact that Steve Koonin had, since I had made my comment, picked up on this very same question about "similar rates" during the period 1920-1950 and was critical of the CSSR because in the CSSR Executive Summary there should have been a reference to this period of similar high rates to provide a proper scientific balance.
This however gets turned to Koonin being a "liar" and me being one spreading lies.
The definition of "ad hominen", straight out of wikipedia is a little more direct that your soft-pedalled definition. It states as follows:
"an argumentative strategy whereby an argument is rebutted by attacking the character, motive or other attribute of the person rather than attacking the substance of the argument itself".
If calling someone a liar is not an an hominem attack on a person then I do not know what is. The statement of Koonin gets turned around to the following:
"Koonin cites the IPCC to support his lie that sea level rise is approximately the same now as in 1950."
He did NOT say that. He said that there were rates of increase in the 1920-1950 period comparable to the present and he felt that a more even handed CSSR report would have made reference to this fact in the same way the IPCC did in its Executive Summary to Chapter 3 of the AR5 report.
We are not talking about "more up to date evidence". We are talking about the present compared to a period in the past. If someone here is going to say, well, Koonin totally misrepresented things because we are now around 4 mm/yr rather than 3.2 mm/yr, I will pull up some quotes from this very same thread from a number of years ago about how inappropriate it is to use a couple of years results for any analysis. In any event, that is no basis to label someone a liar.
To be very honest, I cannot see why that is not just an ad hominen comment but moves into a libellous statement against Koonin.
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