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Comments 22351 to 22400:

22351. michael sweet at 11:27 AM on 15 November 2016
       2016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #46
       

       Wol,

       In many locations, including Texas, WWS are the cheapest form of energy.  In that case if Trump delays the buildout of WWS it will hurt international competitiveness.  If WWS continue to go down in price they will be built out more and more.  

       Unfortunately, even a few years delay in installing more WWS will result in a lot more carbon in the atmosphere.

22352. Tom Curtis at 11:04 AM on 15 November 2016
       On Trump and climate, America is split in two by these demographics
       

       chriskoz @4, based on this poll, it is likely that a majority of Trump voters accept the reality of AGW, but that those that do are on average less worried about it than Clinton voters (or than is consistent with the evidence).  I base that claim on the party affiliation results along with the fact that around 91% of Democrats voted for Clinton, 93% of Republicans voted for Trump, and 53% of independents voted for Trump (based on exit polls here, excluding "other/no answer").

22353. DrivingBy at 09:41 AM on 15 November 2016
       2016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #46
       

       @nigelJ

       - In the mid-60s, a presentation by a noted scientist (someone here recall the name?) to LBJ included the advisory that over the next century, the increase in atmospheric C02 would change the world's climate, with destabilizing effects, and that it would not be a temporary, reversible problem like smog.  C02's greenhouse effect was discovered in the 19th century and confirmed (by Arhennious) around 1900.  There's even a reference to it in the old educational film "Our Mr Sun", a suprisingly well-produced piece from our grandparent's day. 

       My point about the other items, wall-fence, ACA-ACA-lite is that DT really has few fixed positions; he's a combo real estate developer/reality show host. Someone called him Quantum Trump, as he seems to simultaneously hold multiple, opposing positions on a subject.  That is not always a bad thing, because in politics there's often no right answer. 

       @JohnH:

       We can hope that trade implications will enter the new Administration's calculus. If abandoning Paris turns out to be bad for business, Trump will probably change his tune.  Democrats should have been helping those coal miners get jobs in the oil & gas fields or whatever emergent industry arises (wind turbine contstruction & upkeep). If Trump's administration is smart, they will offer new jobs that exist instead of old ones that aren't coming back.  Trump couldn't care less about coal itself, he's looking at the communities which were formerly sustained by it, they are part of his support base.  While he also couldn't care less about climate change, if ignoring CC turns out to be a drag on the economy I suspect he'll adjust. 

22354. chriskoz at 09:38 AM on 15 November 2016
       On Trump and climate, America is split in two by these demographics
       

       I wonder why detailed exit polls pointed by Dana at the very top, does not specifically include the acceptance of climate science vs voting data. There are dozen (if not hundreds I'm bored to read) miniscule questions that will annoy any reader as they did myself, but the central question of climate mitigation, our central concern herein, where the new president will do most damage, is absent. That proves this poll, like the whole coverage of this election, is only about sensationalism, a reality show, or even better said a farcical comedy, rather than a serious contest of responsibility that POTUS office requires. Climate change mitigation is a number one challenge of that office but has been totally forgotten in the campaign and not even mentioned in this post-campain poll. Absurd.

22355. Wol at 07:17 AM on 15 November 2016
       2016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #46
       

       Part of any boom in the US economy under Trump would be the use of much "cheap" coal, gas and oil. The rest of the world would be somewhat shackled to increasing use of renewables, which are still presently more expensive partly because the hidden public costs of fossil fuels isn't adequately taken into account.

       Having just had yet another online "discussion" with several deniers, who in the usual manner brought up all the oft-rebutted arguments, slipping from one to another at will, I see no chance that the Trump machine is in any way amenable to logical and scientific debate.

22356. nigelj at 07:06 AM on 15 November 2016
       On Trump and climate, America is split in two by these demographics
       

       Thanks for some interesting data and a good analysis, and you are broadly correct. There are clearly huge partisan divisions that are becoming worse and worse. The days of sensible consensus seem to be evaporating.

       However you miss a point that the immediate cause of Clinton’s loss was James Comey, head of the FBI. Two weeks ago Clinton was ahead by 8 points and would almost certainly have also won the electoral college. After Comey’s dropping the email bomb in the final week her vote lead dropped to about 2% in the polls. (In reality the polls were also wrong and she was only ahead 1%). Yes obviously several factors contributed to Clintons loss, and she was not a great canditate, but Comey has to be the factor that clinched things. Personally I question his motives for acting the way he did, and consider them very dubious, and they should be questioned. The trouble is the Liberals (and I lean liberal) are too nice and won’t want to rock the boat.

       I agree with the comment posted above. The world needs to signal its displeasure about Trump being elected and do so forcefully and especially so over climate change. The days of playing nice should be over. These Trump supporters don’t play nice so why should anyone else? The only thing that seems to get through to them is shouting and some harsh financial consequences.

       Yes blue collar workers have been hurt and free trade plays some part, but mostly its automation and robotics. Trump can’t change these things. Tariffs will do more harm than good.

       The only real way to help low income, low skilled people is some government financial help with retraining allowances and relocation allowances, etc. However this requires taxation and state help, so won’t be on the republican agenda.

       It’s a huge mess and blue collar workers cant seem to work out its more the Republican Party ideology thats hurt them for decades. They consistently vote against their own financial self interest. But you can only lead a horse to water and I’m beyond caring on that issue.

       However climate change is a global concern, and America is a big player and its ideological world view can be influential on other countries. This really therefore concerns everyone.

22357. nigelj at 06:15 AM on 15 November 2016
       2016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #46
       

       Michael Sweet @4.

       I agree. I'm aware of some of those things, and thanks for the ones I wasn't aware of. And I hope you are right in your interpretation. It's just the election of Trump put my in such a foul mood that I just didn't care to try to find any positives!

       At heart the Republicans believe in free markets (at least within America) So with renewable energy and gas having fallen in price it makes sense on this alone, and will hopefully prevail.

       But watch the more vindictive people in Congress try to put a spanner in the works somehow. Unfortunately emotion and settling scores as they see it against The Green Movement counts with some people.

22358. chriskoz at 05:58 AM on 15 November 2016
       2016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #46
       

       Jonbo69,

       Chinese are already doing it:

       China Threatens to Cut iPhone Sales Over Trump Rhetoric

       Maybe not in response to climate ravaging by the irresponsible con man, as you suggest, rather to his ravaging of trade agrements; but still along the lines you suggest.

22359. Jonbo69 at 05:36 AM on 15 November 2016
       On Trump and climate, America is split in two by these demographics
       

       After having just listened to William Yeatman of the Competitive Enterprise Institute on the UK's Channel Four news emphasising the non-binding and voluntary nature of the Paris agreement and the ease with which the US can take a position of non-compliance, I would just like to add a few more words.

       What Trump and co need is something radical, bold and unexpected coming at them from out of leftfield. They will have anticipated and prepared for the international criticism and the battle with internal climate activists. I think it highly unlikely they are prepared for people from countries all over the world taking it upon themselves to boycott some of the big US corporations - it may just get them on the ropes and could be a game changer.

       Let's face it, those of us who worry and care about climate change tend to be wish washy liberal types and moderate conservatives who don't like conflict, much prefer to work in co-operation with others, look to find common ground, want to be reasonable and play fair. Anyone thinking that approach is going to work with Trump and co needs to get off their unicorn.

       The gloves need to come off and the fight taken to Trump. Trump didn’t realise his revolution through nice words and fair play, and any counter revolution won't achieve results by those methods. There will be those who will claim that it's unfair to target the US; after all, it's not as if other countries are doing what needs to be done on climate. Tough! It's fair enough! The US is about to become climate enemy number one and they need to be dealt with before the contagion spreads.

       A boycott can also serve as a warning to other countries who decide their short term interests are more important than the long term survival of the planet.

22360. One Planet Only Forever at 02:15 AM on 15 November 2016
       Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
       

       The leadership of many nations (and businesses) have been reluctant to behave better on climate change. And some leadership (political and business) have behaved deliberately, knowingly unacceptable on that account.

       The USA and many of its business leaders have consistently been an impediment regarding climate change. Clinton did not ratify Kyoto, and it is not clear that Gore would have been able to ratify it either.

       Though many in America (possibly the majority of Americans) have tried to move humanity forward they are stuck in the muck that is America, a muck of wealthy powerful people gleefully viciously striving to be the ones to gain unjustified advantage from any situation in a game of popularity and profitability that is rigged to be damaging (rigged by what laws get made-up and how they are enforced). And Trump is one of those people.

       The USA dragged its heels for more than a decade on reducing the sulphur in diesel. It did it because of the internal popularity and power of attempting to get a competitive advantage against other nations that actually did what could be done. It also did it as trade protectionism since machines design for lower diesel can't function on the dirtier stuff the Americans still consider "good enough" (As said by the Simpson's character Crusty the Clown on his quality seal of approval "It isn't just good - it's good enough").

       And the Trump promotion of having America profit as much as possible from its coal is just another example. He will also probably support the export for burning of the Petroleum coke waste product from the upgrading of heavy oils and bitumen, something far worse than coal. Doing so is profitable and it also does not count on America's CO2 emissions report. That needs to change. Exports of fossil fuels for burning should be counted against the nation that exported them as well as in the nation that burns them. Restricting the trade would be a very difficult transition for the global economy, but the burning needs to end so the trade of the stuff should end first, then the nations still burning their resources could more easily be pressured by other trade measures.

       This careful playing of the game by American leadership to maximize benefit for some in ways understood to be unacceptable and clearly to the detriment of others is nothing new. During the early parts of WWII many wealthy Americans were doing 'good' business with the Germans as well as with the groups the Germans were fighting to take control over. It was only when it became clear that the Germans would likely lose that the American leadership decided to drum up the popular support to finally put its national efforts towards being seen to be opposed to the Germans.

       Many other nations have failed to act more vigorously on climate change because they are trying to "Compete with the others - like the consistently deliberately damaging leadership of the USA that has deliberately failed to properly change the minds of its population because it is easier for people to deliberately drum up opposition to behaving better when behaving better would be more expensive and harder work. Obama tried to get America to be better but the House Republicans particularly the House Freedom Caucus refused to behave better. That is why Obama could not have the Paris Accord include any legal obligations, he would not have been able to sign on if it did because it would have required House and Senate apporoval. Trudeau in Canada would like to have Canadians be better, but the argument is "don't do anything unless the Americans do it" and it is very popular in support of profitability.

       The presumption that the basis of acceptability and leadership is regional popularity and profitability and the "need to compete with those who get away with less acceptable behaviour" is clearly a fatal flaw in the current socio-economic games that threatens the advancement of humanity.

       Deliberately deceptive appeals to greed or intolerance can easily tempt people to choose to support bad behaviour in the hopes of being part of the "winning group". Getting away with understandably unacceptable behaviour is clearly a competitive advantage. That is how groups like ISIS get support and temporarily win. And it is also how the Trump Republicans got their damaging undeserved "Win".

22361. Jonbo69 at 01:57 AM on 15 November 2016
       On Trump and climate, America is split in two by these demographics
       

       I hope you will excuse me as I have already posted this comment on a previous thread, but it is still entirely relevent to this one.

       We outside America need to act now, before Trump opens a single coal mine, drills a single well. or withdraws a single cent from renewable development projects. It doesn't matter that the economics lean towards renewables and away from fossil fules. Trump & co are tools of the fossil fuel indistry and that it what they will pronote, regardless

       350 degrees, Greenpeace and FOE have their hands tied because they operate inside the US and so it would be pretty hard for them to call for a boycott of US corporations; therefore there needs to be a new campaign group set up in countries outside the US promoting such a boycott. It doesn't have to be all encompassing; just a handful of the big names - Coca Cola, Starbucks, McDonalds etc, will do to start with.

       But it needs to be done quickly, ideally before Trump has even taken office. We need to deliver the first blow, or at least make the threat clear to Trump and the Republicans. To wait until Trump takes charge is to give the advantage, and we can’t afford to allow that. We need him on the defensive and on the back foot.

       
       The sooner people realise that there is absolutely zero chance of the UN or our governments doing anything that will get Trump and co to change course, the quicker we can get together and do something ourselves. The wait and see approach is the dumb ass approach and we’ll take a severe beating.

       
       The only way Trump and the Republicans can be brought to see reason is to hit them in their wallet; our governments won’t do it; we can. We need to be the ones shaping events and controlling them, not the other way around. Action needs to be swift and uncompromising.

22362. Jonbo69 at 01:49 AM on 15 November 2016
       2016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #46
       

       We outside America need to act now, before Trump opens a single coal mine, drills a single well. or withdraws a single cent from renewable development projects.

       It doesn't matter that the economics lean towards renewables and away from fossil fules. Trump & co are tools of the fossil fuel indistry and that it what they will pronote, regardless

       
       350 degrees, Greenpeace and FOE have their hands tied because they operate inside the US and so it would be pretty hard for them to call for a boycott of US corporations; therefore there needs to be a new campaign group set up in countries outside the US promoting such a boycott. It doesn't have to be all encompassing; just a handful of the big names - Coca Cola, Starbucks, McDonalds etc, will do to start with. 

       
       But it needs to be done quickly, ideally before Trump has even taken office. We need to deliver the first blow, or at least make the threat clear to Trump and the Republicans. To wait until Trump takes charge is to give the advantage, and we can’t afford to allow that. We need him on the defensive and on the back foot.

       The sooner people realise that there is absolutely zero chance of the UN or our governments doing anything that will get Trump and co to change course, the quicker we can get together and do something ourselves. The wait and see approach is the dumb ass approach and we’ll take a severe beating.

       The only way Trump and the Republicans can be brought to see reason is to hit them in their wallet; our governments won’t do it; we can. We need to be the ones shaping events and controlling them, not the other way around. Action needs to be swift and uncompromising.

       .

22363. ELIofVA at 23:56 PM on 14 November 2016
       Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 4
       

       The Trump election is certainly a setback for efforts to address climate change. However, the key epiphany that will make effective action possible is the wide spread recognition that to keep co2 concentration in the atmosphere from rising, we need to limit our human caused emissions to the net amount that nature sequesters. This is what the COP21 treaty referred to as a net zero carbon emissions economy. Nature sequesters most of our human emissions that are safely in the carbon cycle. However, the emissions that can not be sequestered are dumped into the atmosphere adding to the previous inbalances causing the concentration to rise. This is a debt. The ultimate difficulty will be determined by how high this carbon concentration (debt) gets. When we achieve net zero, we will no longer be adding to the carbon debt. However, to reduce the carbon concentration we will need to have a net sequester economy where our emissions are less than what can be sequestered. This we firmly understand. It is the only way to do it. If you do not believe we will ever go there, then you are assuming we will destroy the life resilience on our planet and the opportunity for our proginy to have healthy happy lives. The only way for there to be political will to acheive a net sequester economy is for the main stream to understand these limitations. Since this is our only hope, I will assume it will eventually occur and act in such a way that will make it more likely to happen. I am not sure Hillary Clinton had that recognition. However, she did recognize the rising carbon concentration was a problem and was postured to promote clean energy jobs, Trump is headed for that bridge back to the 20th Century where burn baby burn is the modow for economic growth.

       This is a graphic I created that attempts to summarize the business as usual, net zero and net sequester economies.  

       Since our ability to sequester co2 is limited, should we share the capacity to emit co2 fairly?

        https://2050story.files.wordpress.com/2016/11/fair-share-carbon-emissions161030.pdf

22364. michael sweet at 21:07 PM on 14 November 2016
       2016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #46
       

       Nigelj,

       I think that the time for coal is past, even if the Trump presidency tries to revive it.

       The biggest coal compaies in the USA have recently declared bankruptcy.  If regulations are eased for emissions (which I expect), they will not be able to raise the capitol to reopen closed mines.  Who will finance new coal burning generators with the writing on the wall for 4-8 years from now?  There may be less coal shutdown for 4 years but the economics of coal argue for no more than a stalling in the shutting down of current facilities.

       If the Saudi's keep pumping, fracking is not econnomic.  It appears that the Sauds do not want to compete with fracking.  Even if the pipelines are built, Trump cannot raise the price of oil enough to make those wells economic.  Oil sands also require high prices to be profitable.  The Saudi's might want to pump as much as they can before oil is no longer used.  They make money at current prices.

       WInd and solar have gotten much bigger under Obama.  Will Trump really ignore the jobs created by WWS?  Those jobs already exceed the old jobs under coal.  Trump can hold back expansion but since wind and solar are cheaper they cannot be shut down once they are built.  Perhaps Trump will waste a lot of money on nuclear, but that will lower CO2 in the end also.

22365. John Hartz at 14:50 PM on 14 November 2016
       2016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #46
       

       DrivingBy: I suspect that just about everyone attending the ongoing Cop 22 Conference in Marakesh, Morocco considers Trump's promise to withdraw from the Paris Accord to be a "Blow to the gut".

       Here's an example of how diplomats are reacting:

       The United States would become "a kind of rogue country" if it pulls out of an international agreement to combat global warming, leaving the world more vulnerable to droughts and other climate extremes, warned Mary Robinson, a former Irish president and human rights advocate.

       "It would be a tragedy for the United States and the people of the United States if the U.S. becomes a kind of rogue country, the only country in the world that is somehow not going to go ahead with the Paris Agreement," Robinson said in an interview with the Thomson Reuters Foundation on Sunday.

       INTERVIEW-U.S. will be 'rogue' state if it ditches climate accord - UN envoy by Laurie Goering, Thomson Reuters Foundation, Reuters, Nov 13, 2016

22366. John Hartz at 13:16 PM on 14 November 2016
       Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
       

       Synapsid: There are multiple reasons why the election turned out the way it did.

22367. Tom Curtis at 12:41 PM on 14 November 2016
       CO2 effect is saturated
       

       David Thorn @425, the specific absorption frequencies for different isotopologues of CO2 are available at Hitran (requires registration to download data).  The difference in isotopes will make a difference, if only because the different isotopes will have a different velocity distribution at different temperatures due to differences in mass, and hence different doppler broadening patterns.  This can be illustrated by this listing of relevant frequencies of a particular transition for different isotopologues:

       

       Note that the transition in question is at too high a frequency to be relevant to the atmospheric greenhouse effect, but the small differences shown are likely to be typical at lower frequencies as well, although I have not specifically checked.

       In any event, Hitran allows the downloading of a composite absorption spectrum for all isotopologues of CO2 at relative concentrations as found in the atmosphere; and it is likely that this is the data used in LBL models of radiation.  Broad band models of radiation, and Global Circulation Models typically use lower resolution data in which the differences are not likely to be significant.

22368. Rob Honeycutt at 12:21 PM on 14 November 2016
       CO2 effect is saturated
       

       I understand you're saturation point now. Just be aware of your phrasing because this is often used by climate deniers to suggest there is no greenhouse effect. Relative to your questions about other bands outside of the 667cm-1 range, I think most of the other bands are overwhelmed by WV. It's that 667 window which has the primary scattering effect. 

22369. Tom Curtis at 10:45 AM on 14 November 2016
       It's the sun
       

       Jc @1198, the paper uses four of surface temperature over the last 1000 years to determine independent values for climate sensitivity for CO2, solar activity and volcanoes.  In determining independent values, it assumes that a factors impact on temperatures is not a function of alteration of the energy balance, which is unphysical.  Using the contrary assumption, based on conservation of energy, that a factors impact is a function of its alteration of the energy balance, you would generate a combined proxy of the factors altering that value and scale it against the temperature proxies.  Because of this, I consider the approach of the paper physically invalid regardless of the mathematical validity of the techniques used.

       Ignoring that, the uncertainties of the reconstructions of temperatures and forcings over the last 1000 years are very large relative to the uncertainties over the last 136 years.  Given this, we would expect the uncertainties to be large relative to climate sensitivity estimates over the instrumental period, wheras de Larminat claims a smaller uncertainty.  I would also expect the model(s) obtained over the period of the reconstruction to be tested against the more accurate data, something de Larminat fails to do.

       Beyond these more general points, de Laminat uses four temperature proxies, none of which are global.  Moberg 2005 is a Northern Hemisphere only proxy, as was Mann 1999.  Ljungqvist 2010 reconstructs Northern Hemisphere extratropical temperatures only (30-90 North), and thus covers less than a third of the Earth's surface.  Only Loehle 2007 claims to be a global temperature reconstruction, but it takes a simple mean of its (unusually small number of) proxies, and as they are not evenly distributed across the globe, that leads to a very biased coverage.  Indeed, 56% of his proxies come from the North Atlantic region (just 22% of the globe), and only two come from the Southern Hemisphere extratropics (both from South Africa).  Given that the proxy is generated by taking a simple mean, this is better regarded as a slightly tweaked North Atlantic temperature reconstruction than a truly global one.

       Oddly, de Laminat shows a penchant for dated sources.  That is clear enough from his use of Loehle 2007 rather than the corrected version, Loehle 2008.  It is most obvious in his use of Mann 1999.  He defends his choice "there is no reason to discard the reconstruction of Mann: scientific truth does not determine by majority"; but Mann 1999 suffers from a number of minor methodological flaws (some discovered by the original author) and uses a small number of proxies compared to modern reconstructions (other than Loehle).  There can be no justification for using it rather than, for example, Mann 2008, which includes a global temperture reconstruction as well.  There is even less reason for not using the PAGES 2K reconstruction, the most comprehensive global temperature reconstruction of the last 2000 years.

       de Laminat's use of dated, and geographically biased data sets results in regional, particularly North Atlantic temperature variations dominating his results; and is by itself sufficient reason to discount his work.

       de Laminat shows his results for what is the best of the reconstructions he uses:

       

       Although he does not directly compare with the recent period, it can be seen his model performs poorly in resolving the 20th century.  Out of interest, he also shows a version in which the response to TSI is limited to be no greater than the upper bound of IPCC climate sensitivity (1.62 C/(W/m^2))  As can be seen, so constrained the model works much better in the 20th century (when uncertainties are low), and not appreciably worse in prior periods:

       

       On top of this, he states that for his model, "It can be seen that the output error is large, but comparable with the millennial simulations of IPCC".  If comparible, then his model has no claim to superiority even on the geographically biased, uncertain data on which he bases it.  It certainly performs much worse on the global, accurate data of the 20th century.

22370. nigelj at 10:13 AM on 14 November 2016
       2016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #46
       

       Driving by, ok nobody knows exactly what Trump will push for, but we can be 99% certain of one thing: Trump and the Republicans have enormous opposition to climate science and reductions in emissions, and will have the power to decimate existing legislation. Are you seriously saying its likely or even possible that they are going to keep what Obama put in place?  Even as Trump has already put several climate sceptics in his cabinet? I dont think so.

       You are right, gas is cheaper, but these Republicans will promote coal out of sheer hatred of liberals. They have obstructed Obama for 8 years on virtually everything so why would they change their ideology now?

       And what has 1960 got to do with climate? Climate change was not really a proven threat back then. The science at that time suggested warming was possible, but there was no evidence of warming happening back then. It was only the warming trend from about 1980 - 1990 that strongly suggested the science was correct. 

       And take Obamacare. Its not as simple as keeping the "good bits". Obamacare is an integrated package, and cant be fragmented up. I dont have time to explain but a google search might help you.

       Yes the wall may become a fence. Who knows. But every Trump policy has huge problems, and softened versions will still be problems.

       Obviously I hope I'm wrong, sanity prevails, and Trump changes tack, because if he doesn't this beautiful planet is in genuine danger in so many ways.

22371. chriskoz at 09:50 AM on 14 November 2016
       2016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #46
       

       One Planet@3,

       Very sadly, maybe sadder than this election, your opinion and prediction about the bias of future Supreme Court is true. So cases like Juliana et al. versus the United States have very small chance of ultimate success.

22372. Synapsid at 08:07 AM on 14 November 2016
       Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
       

       John Hartz:

       Your point?

22373. DavidThorn at 08:06 AM on 14 November 2016
       CO2 effect is saturated
       

       Following up my earlier question regarding CO2 isotopomers and absorption saturation, I get the idea that IR absorption is saturated from, among other sources, the article above "Consider the CO2 absorption band around 15 μm (about 650 cm-1), it is strong enough to not let any light go through after a few tens of meters at surface temperature and pressure."  This is not saying the CO2 effect is saturated - there are good arguments and evidence that it isn't - but I am wondering if the minor isotopomers' IR and lower-energy absorption fall within or outside the spectrally-saturated bands.  Or perhaps I should use "opaque" instead of "saturation" when asking about absorption spectral lines/bands?

22374. DavidThorn at 07:56 AM on 14 November 2016
       Welcome to Skeptical Science
       

       Posting answer to "where do you get.." on the suggested thread.  Appreciate the response -

22375. DrivingBy at 07:48 AM on 14 November 2016
       2016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming Digest #46
       

       Mr. Trump's expressed views on global warming are opposite mine and probably everyone reading here.  They're also not the end of the world, and the hysterics detract from our credibility. 

       The US is only 15% of world C02 output and falling, and President Trump's actual actions regarding it will be much milder than expressed on the campaign trail.  The wall is becoming a fence, the Obamacare repeal will retain it's most expensive element, there will be no particular effort for mass deportation of illegals (meaning it won't happen).  Not a few seem to have forgotten that he is a New York Democrat who contributed to the Clintons three times and whose kids are friends with Clinton/CGI's sole heir.   One thing is certain: He'll be great for ratings.

       Coal is not coming back, because natural gas is cheaper and easier to handle. Once a power plant is fully converted to gas, going back to coal means lower efficiency and re-installing huge, maintenance-heavy exhaust scrubbers. 

       Yes, we should have started dealing with this in the 1960s, when Johnson was originally told about it. But Lyndon Johnson's first, middle and last concerns were ramming through his progressive agenda and having the country "voting Democrat for 200 years".  

       A small but critical course correction 50 years ago could have made us the world leader on this issue at a small cost, even a $$ gain if we instead of China had become the solar and wind tech manufacturer. (It would help even more if we'd started with solar for hot water preheating, rather than expensive, low-yeild solar electric panels).   The course was set then, and can only be adjusted in increments now. 

22376. nigelj at 06:46 AM on 14 November 2016
       Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
       

       Honestly many conservatives are clueless about science, and seem to have some deep distrust of science. I suppose it relates to religious convictions, and a preference for gut reactions over scientific data or ideas.

       Trump did support Obamas early efforts to combat climate change,  but has clearly changed his mind. I suspect he has been persuaded by some clever climate denialist. Trump has no patience for detail, and is not a big reader, so would be easy to fool over a complex issue like climate science.

22377. scaddenp at 06:21 AM on 14 November 2016
       It's the sun
       

       Jc, rebuttal takes a bit of effort and a paper published by forecaster in an non-climate journal isnt going to get a lot of attention. A quick glance would suggest it certainly wasnt reviewed by any physicist. Would appear to be advanced curve-fitting (mathturbation) and highly questionable reconstructions. For this kind of study to be convincing, you need to develop your model with first half of the data and then show that it correctly predicts the remaining half. (For example of a model that does this well, see here.) There are numerous papers linking global warming to celestial orbits, solar cycles, etc. "With four parameters I can fit an elephant, and with five I can make him wiggle his trunk" was Von Neumann's comment.

22378. Rob Honeycutt at 04:06 AM on 14 November 2016
       Welcome to Skeptical Science
       

       We should probably start with your initial assumption here: "I get that the full-spectrum absorption of 12C16O2 is essentially saturated even at pre-industrial CO2 levels..."

       Where do you get the idea that IR absorption is saturated for any specific isotopic variation of CO2?

22379. Jc at 04:04 AM on 14 November 2016
       It's the sun
       

       @Tristan
       Thanks for confirming what I feel too.
       
       Still, if someone comes with an argument which has not yet met a rebutal, then the argument should be reviewed. SkS is not the place for that, I agree. I was just looking if someone had enough background to point me where the bias lies.
       
       So many arguments can be made based on stats alone. Stats are a real mine field. Easy to get trapped in it. And those stats are not the one I use in my field. Frustrating.
       
       Thanks the same. I appreciate.

22380. One Planet Only Forever at 02:52 AM on 14 November 2016
       2016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #46
       

       chriskoz@2
       That would be a great action.

       I think an even more powerful action would be a lawsuit claiming that Comey, and therefore the FBI and therefore the USA Government, deliberately and unjustifiably defamed Hillary making a critical difference in the razor thin victory by those who would keep the USA from helping to reduce USA participation in the damaging, ultimately dead-end, global pursuits of benefit from burning fossil fuels (particularly damaging and unacceptable is any already reasonably fortunate person getting more fortunate - or staying fortunate longer - from that activity as it is globally curtailed). Proof of the impact of Comey's unjustified action would be the clear boost to the Trump and Republican poll numbers after Comey's.

       What would be even better is for that lawsuit to be considered to be a class-action lawsuit for all of the future members of humanity and all of the current day members of humanity negatively affected by the disrespectful damaging selfish actions of that portion of the American population. The amount of the claim would be the total expected future costs of the deliberate efforts to delay or diminish action today, many Trillions of dollars.

       Unfortunately the politically partisan Supreme Court that will be made-up by the unAmerican Trump-Republicans will almost certainly be 5 -4 against 'any ruling that favours the future of humanity contrary to the interests of the group behind the Trump-Republican-"Unite the deplorable Right" pursuers of power and wealth'. (As I stated in another comment, America has claimed to be the global leader of humanity to a better future for all.)

       Getting that biased 5-4 Supreme Court was one of the main motivations mentioned by American voters against Hillary - not wanting a Supreme Court that would be 5-4 in favour of the advancement of humanity contrary to their interests.

       That biased Supreme Court (and it is clearly biased - less reason to doubt that than there is to doubt climate science) can impact the advancement of humanity far longer than elected power obtained by people opposed to the advancement of humanity could maintain its unjustified influence.

       Trump's power may be crippled in 2 years if the Republicans lose control of the House and Senate in the mid-term election. And the entire group of "appealers to deplorables like Unite the deplorable Right" could be essentially irrelevant in 4 years. But the 5-4 biased Supreme Court that will be set next year will literally live on until its members die or choose to resign and are replaced by judges biased toward the advancement of humanity to a lasting better future for all.

22381. DavidThorn at 00:58 AM on 14 November 2016
       Welcome to Skeptical Science
       

       New member, with a question probably not suitable for this thread and/or already addressed elsewhere, so will make it brief:  I get that the full-spectrum absorption of 12C16O2 is essentially saturated even at pre-industrial CO2 levels, but am curious about minor isotopomers 13C16O2, 12C18O16O, and 12C16O17O (which should have populations about 11 ppt, 4 ppt, 1 ppt respectively vs 984 ppt for 12C16O16O, rounded to nearest ppt).  Won't these minor isotopomers have significant but unsaturated absorption?  Or perhaps their absorption bands ride so close to 12C16O16O bands as to be effectively saturated already?  But then how about 12C18O16O and 12C17O16O (together comprising ca. 5 ppt of CO2), won't they have pure rotational absorption bands not present in 12C16O16O, and wouldn't that absorption have some greenhouse effect?

       Moderator Response:

       [PS] I really think any discussion of this should happen on this thread. And David, you have opened with a mistaken assumption, so please read the article there.

22382. Tristan at 23:59 PM on 13 November 2016
       It's the sun
       

       @Jc

       I'm no expert but it reads like a vanity project born of engineer-flavoured dunning-kruger. It isn't worth an expert's time.

22383. RedBaron at 19:34 PM on 13 November 2016
       Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
       

       @ bozzza,

        I wish you were right. Unfortunately doesn't look like this is the case...at least according to this article in the New York Times:

       Trump’s Climate Contrarian: Myron Ebell Takes On the E.P.A.

       Now it is interesting that they are using the term "contrarian" rather than denialist. So there is the slim chance he would still enact a different sort of mitigation plan. He did leave himself a tiny bit of wiggle room. But I think it pretty unlikely. This news hit me even harder than the election results, because this signals the sort of changes in the beauracracy that can have lasting detrimental effects long after Trump is dead and gone. Just like the changes Butz made in agricultural policy. I am still in shock actually. Haven't figured out what to think or do yet.

22384. bozzza at 18:17 PM on 13 November 2016
       Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
       

       I'm not altogether sure Trump is a climate change denier: he just said he was.

       Now he's starting to use very curious language like "Ameding": he's playing a game to throw everyone off the scent so by the time he gets things done there is nothing to complain about and the job is done.

       I could be wrong, of course. But I do hope this is the case as what else is there but hope?

22385. chriskoz at 16:03 PM on 13 November 2016
       Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 4
       

       William@1,

       I recently scolded you about your mispelling Katharine's name, which you have not only ignored but this time you ravaged in two mispells. Because of your lack of engagement with me on it, I don't understand your motivation of your persistent offending Dr Hayhoe, or persistent extreme ignorance of the rules people like me are trying to obide, but I underscore both to be a bad practice and a bad etiquette in blog commenting in general. And I suggests the others not to follow your example.

22386. PluviAL at 14:46 PM on 13 November 2016
       Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
       

       Conservatives own the climate problem, but they are as confused by Trump as everybody else too. We don't know what Trump is going to do and neither does he. Modern conservatives don't really care about reality, or scientific consistency, and neither do they care what happens to the earth, they trust that their myths will somehow come true and they can keep living the sweet life of overconsumption. Conspiracies and blame elements will suffice for all purposes.

       But if anything, Trump is practical, and he brave new world double talk is no sweat for him, or his supporters; what we need to do is convince him and them that they can make money by solving the problem, weather it is true or not: This is the Post Truth Trump World PTTW, which we must navigate and manage, but there is a better way.

       As you may know, I work for solutions on this scale, and with full knowledge of this 40-years-obvious political/economic condition. Trump did not invent denial he just embraced it with love and gusto.

22387. One Planet Only Forever at 12:03 PM on 13 November 2016
       Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 4
       

       A more important factor in the opposition to climate science than the cost of properly addressing the issue is that the costs of not acting will be suffered by other humans.

       Humans trying to benefit as much as possible from actions that will create problems and challenges that other humans will have to deal with will only consider caring if the "others" are likely to be successful in rapidly and effectively "getting back at" the trouble-makers.

       What is clearly missing in current day socio-economic systems is rapid effective getting back at trouble-makers, a lack of ability to ensure a trouble-maker gets no satisfaction or perception of success for any meaningful period of time.

       Rapid action against the trouble-makers is critical. If they expect to die of old age before the action back against them happens they will not be deterred. Heck, some of them probably would think that even just a year of living with wealth and power is worth the risk of being severely penalized at some point in the future.

       It would be nice if everyone could be relied on to thoughtfully and considerately limit their actions and focus their efforts on helping to advance humaity to a lasting better future for all. But that is a fantasyland that only exists in fairy tales like the ones made-up by the likes of Ayn Rand and Milton Friedman.

       In reality, the desired actions of people need to be rapidly tested regarding the impacts they would have on the future of all humanity. Atittudes and actions that would be contrary to the advancement of humanity to a lasting better future for all would be deemed unaccepable and be stopped, with penalties assessed against any pushers of the activity that could have been expected to actually better understand the unacceptability of what they were promoting or trying to benefit from (the fundamental basis of laws and by-laws and even sport rules, keep knowing cheaters from succeeding).

       In that reality (the one that is really needed), someone like Imhoff would already have been removed from his position for being proven to be "incapable of properly performing the duties of the position", which is a valid legal reason to remove an elected official, or any business leader, from a position of power.

22388. chriskoz at 09:02 AM on 13 November 2016
       2016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #46
       

       Check out the interesting case of Juliana et al. versus the United States, where bounch of youngsters aged 8-19, with the help of Jim Hansen, alleged US govs (and president Obama in particular), be thier lack of action to stop climate change. infringe on their rights to have the decent future guaranteed by the 5th Amendment.

       In judge's opinion and order the case has the merit to proceed. It will be interesting how far it goes. From the moral point of view, everyone agrees that those young poeple's future is screwed, especially upon the iselection when we just tansitioned from the informed but inept gov under  Obama, to a terrifyingly stupid, childish narcicist, who's going to make matters far worse than they are now. But it's unprecedented that those young paople are finding support in US constitution to proceed their case. If the democratic avenues are failing us (i.e. those who care about the future of the planet and human civilisation) maybe legal avanues like this one will not fail...

22389. Jc at 08:37 AM on 13 November 2016
       It's the sun
       

       A paper was published 2 weeks ago, can some experts comment on it ?
       http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1367578816300931

22390. EvilDoctorDaddy at 08:32 AM on 13 November 2016
       So fracking reduces carbon emissions, right?
       

       I’ve worked on gas ICE engines (up to 2 MW) and in co-en applications they can reach 90% efficiency. The major issue with using gas remains that it is a fossil fuel – but it doesn’t have to be.

       For example Chris Goodall in talking about a sustainable energy strategy for the UK (if Hinkley C dies, which it still may) states that “The real opportunity is finding ways of storing large amounts of energy for months at a time. This is where the need is greatest, and the possible return most obvious. More precisely, what we require are technologies that take the increasing amounts of surplus power from sun or wind and turn this energy into storable fuels. In The Switch, a book just out from Profile Books, I explore the best ways of converting cheap electricity from renewables into natural gas and into liquid fuels similar to petrol or diesel so provide huge buffers of energy storage.

       See http://www.carboncommentary.com/blog/2016/7/27/an-industrial-strategy-for-energy

       There are several methods by with this could be done aside from the above mentioned bio-chemical pathways i.e. via the Sabatier reaction (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabatier_reaction) and several pilot plants are already in operation.

       Thus replacement of coal plants by gas could be an advantage if and when sufficient renewable exist to provide excess power for production of manufactured fuels. Goodall has noted that this is already sometimes the case in the UK, National Grid was been willing to pay up to £60 per MW to take excess off their hands this summer. Likewise Audi has a 6MW methane producing sink tied to the German grid.

22391. scaddenp at 06:24 AM on 13 November 2016
       Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 4
       

       Richard, the calculations were done for this by Matthews and Weaver and by Hare and Meinshausen.  You can find both of these discussed here and here.

22392. Rob Honeycutt at 06:09 AM on 13 November 2016
       Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 4
       

       Richard...

       1) The range you've listed spans different emissions pathways. I'm not sure where you find the 1.1C number since there would be no possible way to hold global temperature to that level. The 5.4C figure is a business-as-usual scenario.

       2) Yes, once we put CO2 into the atmosphere it's going to stay there for 100-300 years. But, if I understand your second statement, no, it doesn't continue to contribute to raising temperature. Once we hold CO2 as a particular level, temps will rise for another 30 years before reaching most of  it's equilibrium potential. After that warming would continue on a much slower pace over the following centuries. See SkS sections on Transient Climate Sensitivity, Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity and Earth Systems Sensitivity.

       3) If we stopped today, temperature would continue to rise for about 30 years or so. That might put us somewhere between 1.5C and 2C, if we're lucky.

       5) In addition to the Climate Sensitivity reading, I'd suggest reading up on Representative Concentrations Pathways, also found here on SkS.

22393. splitpin at 06:07 AM on 13 November 2016
       Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
       

       Anyone who voted for Trump shares the responsibility for the climate damages resulting from his presidency

       Or, equally, anyone who did not vote for Hillary Clinton.  That includes all the Democrats that could not bring themselves to vote for her.   AND all the US citizens who did not vote at all, perhaps 40% of the electorate.  So in total, a majority of the US electorate.

22394. Richard13791 at 03:49 AM on 13 November 2016
       Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 4
       

       
       Here are some observations from the current literature, as I understand them, and questions::

       1. Average global temperatures are predicted to rise by 2100 by from 1.1 to 5.4 deg C. (Is this accurate?)

       2. Once CO2 gets into the atmosphere most of it stays there for a very long time (perhaps centuries), and presumably continues to contribute to rising temperatures while it is there.

       3. To set a lower boundary on the problem, let’s say that ALL new human-produced CO2 and methane added to the atmosphere is reduced to ZERO starting tomorrow. Using current models, what is then the predicted change in average global temperature in 2100?

       4. Are my statements/assumptions accurate?

       5. Has anyone run the simulation I describe in (3)?

22395. william5331 at 03:14 AM on 13 November 2016
       Global weirding with Katharine Hayhoe: Episode 4
       

       Our new president is highly sceptical about climate change so perhaps we should make a strategic retreat.  Perhaps, this is an argument he could go with without having to do a political flip flop that would weaken his message to his base.

       http://mtkass.blogspot.co.nz/2010/10/forget-climate-change.html

       I know this comment it is political and hence will be deleated but please read before deleating.  Unfortunately, as Catherine says, the issue is political.

22396. ubrew12 at 02:57 AM on 13 November 2016
       2016 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #46
       

       For those interested in other Climate Change news from this past week, Mary Ellen Harte at HuffPo does a listing (link).

22397. citizenschallenge at 01:48 AM on 13 November 2016
       President Trump would Make America Deplorable Again
       

       Well said Rob and moderator (@12), but, what are the chances that ABloke will allow that to soak in.

       Though the reason I'm showing up here is to alter folks to what's happening in the United States, unfortunately it remains to be seen if the Democratic limp noodles will be able to do anything with it.

       ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
       POLITICS Obama Is Now Looking Into Trump’s Ties To Russia That FBI Ignored
       By Grant Stern
       http://occupydemocrats.com/2016/11/11/obama-now-looking-trumps-ties-russia-fbi-ignored/
       ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
       Text of Dworkin Report
       https://www.scribd.com/document/330757147/The-Dworkin-Report-by-The-Democratic-Coalition
       ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
       Trump’s Ties to Russia Uncovered in “The Dworkin Report,” Submitted to White House and Democratic Leadership
       http://www.keepamericagreat.us/thedworkinreport
       ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
       http://liberalsociety.com/president-obama-takes-trump-matters-into-his-own-hands-launches-this-investigation/
       ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

22398. Micawber at 23:31 PM on 12 November 2016
       Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
       

       Trump will have negligible effect on self-sustaining GHG ocean warming. Heat is trapped in ocean surface and transported polewards. Models still dwell on albedo melt and disregard year-round basal icemelt.

       Alaska Climate Research Center, Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska show 2.2C warming for 2015 over south central Alaska from the 1981-2010 mean. This is well past the Paris Accord target. Pt Barrow records show October 2015 temperatures were 7.2C higher. There have been 16 record months to date. This demonstrates the warming is maritime – from flows through the 50m deep Bering Strait. Alaska was ice free during the last ice age due to differential north Pacific warming.

       The north Pacific traps heat in the ocean surface with equatorial data showing enlargement of the 30C surface water across larger areas each year since 2010. This has reduced the temperature range at the Galapagos. The volume of hot water during the warm season now is much greater than the cold tongue water from Humboldt polar current. Galapagos mean temperatures are well above the long-term 24C. The warm water has even pushed south along the temperate western Australian coasts to destroy kelp beds as far south as Perth.

       These processes are driven by the infrared GHG heat blankets. As they increase cumulatively and faster-than-exponentially, continued heat trapping is inevitable. If you keep adding blankets in bed, you will get warmer as less heat gets out. The only solution is to take blankets off, not just stop adding them.

       Increasing temperatures are already releasing huge volumes of methane from Arctic tundra and subsea shelves. These processes may already be beyond human control.

       Fortunately IPCC 6th assessment will address this in its Oceanography and Cryology report. Better late than never. However, if the warming continues, present voluntary reductions will not stop disastrous weather change from ocean warming. We are no longer dealing with climate but weather that changes each year and month.

       Only massive distributed solar wind and water energy systems have a chance of reducing the disaster. California has led the way with DOE showing costs of 2c per KWH are competitive with fossil and nuclear. There is no need for national grids and big schemes if subsidies are concentrated on individual homes, businesses and communities for total fossil free power and heat.

       Trump proposes to go back to the age of the robber barons and goldrush. Usually USA has been forward not backwards looking. California must push to move to a fossil free future in which the USA leads the world. This could lead to a head-to-head battle with China. Let us hope this is the chosen battlefield.

22399. One Planet Only Forever at 10:07 AM on 12 November 2016
       Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
       

       A slightly more succinct comment than my previous one (the quote at the end will make it seem long but it is an important quote).

       You can only claim that the Conservatives "own the problems they are creating" if they will be the ones to actually suffer all of the consequences.

       There is a clear disconnect between the ability to benefit and having to suffer the consequences. That Donald Deal Disconnect is the real problem when it comes to limiting what a portion of humanity gets away with to ensure that things only get better for all, particularly the future generations. At least in a current generation there is the possible threat of blow-back on the actual trouble-makers.

       The 1987 UN commissoned report "Our Common Future" presents an understanding of what is going on that global Leaders should demand that the Trump Administration provide an official complete, compelling, justified response to. And the response would be the basis for determining if they should be taken seriously, why they should be included in global discussions of how to advance all of humanity to a lasting better future (the only relevant reason for any global interaction). The other Global Leaders should do the same. I would expect most of them (except the few likes of Putin and that character in North Korea), would have an easier time explaining and justifying how their values and objectives and actual actions align with the guiding principle of advancing all of humanity to a lasting better future for all:

       "25. Many present efforts to guard and maintain human progress, to meet human needs, and to realize human ambitions are simply unsustainable - in both the rich and poor nations. They draw too heavily, too quickly, on already overdrawn environmental resource accounts to be affordable far into the future without bankrupting those accounts. They may show profit on the balance sheets of our generation, but our children will inherit the losses. We borrow environmental capital from future generations with no intention or prospect of repaying. They may damn us for our spendthrift ways, but they can never collect on our debt to them. We act as we do because we can get away with it: future generations do not vote; they have no political or financial power; they cannot challenge our decisions.
       26. But the results of the present profligacy are rapidly closing the options for future generations. Most of today's decision makers will be dead before the planet feels; the heavier effects of acid precipitation, global warming, ozone depletion, or widespread desertification and species loss. Most of the young voters of today will still be alive. In the Commission's hearings it was the young, those who have the most to lose, who were the harshest critics of the planet's present management."

22400. nigelj at 09:40 AM on 12 November 2016
       Conservatives elected Trump; now they own climate change
       

       Trevor @34, I disagree. Trump is bad news over climate issues.

       Plenty of liberals and I dare say a few conservatives have made real progress reducing emissions. No mention of this from you, just sneering generalisations.

       Plus its unlikely owners of electricity generators are going to voluntarily reduce emissions. Mechanisms like cap and trade or carbon taxes, or regulations provide an incentive to change behaviour, and they put a price on carbon emissions which helps that process. Trump has said he will not do any of those things, and has even threatened to pull out of the Paris agreement and stop clean energy funding, and stop funding of research into the climate.

       Trump is scientifically illiterate and despite being a so called business person is economically illiterate. He will take us back decades. There are very few economists that have preached protectionism, and very few climate scientists taking a contrary view. This has all been well documented.

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