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Welcome to Skeptical Science
This was a very interesting read. The idea of Skeptical Science I feel can apply to other fields of interest, such as design or safety. In regard to climate change, I believe that we have solid evidence that shows a correlation between greenhouse gases and global warming. Ignoring that evidence to pursue alternatives is a good way of theory testing, but not a good way to view the problem overall. I'll make sure to bear what I've read here in my future career as best as I can.
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One Planet Only Forever at 12:20 PM on 13 September 2022New study more than triples estimated costs of climate change damages
The NOAA document regarding the use of discount rates for Coastal System Restoration that nigelj linked to may be a good case study for an Economics course. It contains examples of potentially incorrect thinking (excuse making in the Era of Excuses) like the following:
"The social rate of time preference is the rate at which society is willing to substitute present for future consumption of natural resources. The federal opportunity cost of capital and the rate of productivity growth are commonly used as proxies for the social rate of time preference. The argument for using the federal opportunity cost of capital as a proxy for the social rate of time preference is that in the absence of the public project, the federal government could put the funds to productive use reducing the national debt. When using the federal cost of capital, the generally accepted practice is to apply the effective yield on comparable-term Treasury securities (e.g., 20-year Treasury bonds for a study with a 20-year analysis timeframe). During the decade of the 1990s, the average 10-year Treasury bond rate was 6.01 percent whereas inflation averaged 2.88 percent. Thus, the real rate of interest on Treasury bonds was roughly 3.13 percent during the 1990s (Bellas and Zerbe 2003).
Social policy is also concerned with an equitable distribution of consumption over time. Based on this premise, the rate of productivity growth can be used as a proxy for the social rate of time preference. This policy reflects the opportunity cost argument that the incremental or marginal benefit to the country generated by the public project should grow as fast as the productive capacity of industry. From 1990 to 2003, real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 2.96 percent (BEA 2004). Thus, using productivity over that period as the basis of the discount rate generates a roughly 3.0 percent rate. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) recommends using the social, or consumer, rate of time preference for discounting interim service losses and restoration gains when scaling compensatory restoration (NOAA 1999).
NOAA has adopted a 3.0 percent discount rate as a proxy for the social rate of time preference. When discounting restoration and assessment costs, NOAA recommends that trustees use the rates on U.S. Treasury securities issued for a comparable term relative to the analysis period."
The fundamental flaw is using past economic statistics to evaluate a 'never before faced situation' - the need to evaluate the acceptability of a portion of global humanity benefiting in ways that are unsustainable and harmful to Other Humans (especially the future generations) and Other life. The understanding that GDP is a poor measure of progress is a growth industry producing a diversity of corrections to the flawed GDP (and other financial measures) way of evaluating progress.
Ethically it is simply unacceptable for a person to benefit from actions that harm another person. A person can personally benefit from an action where they are the only potentially harmed person. And a group can benefit in a similar fashion as long as all members of the group equitably benefit and suffer consequences. But it is not acceptable for some members of the group to inequitably benefit from harm done to other members of the group. That is pretty fundamental to Legal Judgments. But the ways that pursuits of increased GDP can make up excuses for more harm being done are understandably unethical, yet likely Legal (really think about that).
The case of climate change impacts is an evaluation of the harm done by human actions that a portion of the current global population inequitably benefit from. And any indications of GDP (or poverty and misery reduction, the real measure of progress) based on the harmful burning up of non-renewable resources are not sustainable. So it is a 'poor excuse' to use past measures of economic growth to discount future costs that are imposed on Others.
In addition, it is flawed 'excusing' to use a discount rate for this 'global novel' developed problem. And climate change impacts due developed human activity are a global novel problem. Never before has such an extensive integral part of developed human activity needed to be stopped because it was learned, well after the activity was very popular and profitable, that it was globally unsustainable and threatened the future of humanity. Damage to the Ozone layer was addressed, sort of, because it was understood to be a near term threat to even the rich people. And nuclear weaponry was a similar global humanity threat, but it was not as pervasive in global human activity as harmful unsustainable fossil fuel use (at least above ground nuclear weapons testing was stopped). Fossil fuel use needs massive excusing to evade the harm to the rich and powerful (and their faithful fans) that is undeniably required by the undeniably understood need to limit the harm done to the future of humanity.
And all of that is without accounting for the additional misery and suffering caused by fossil fuel use, the climate change harm that Others experience due to fossil fuel use as well as other harms due to fossil fuel use.
And all of that is said without adding the 'ethical externalities' of impacts on other life that currently do not economically get accounted for but are harmed by fossil fuel activity. Those impacts to other life include, but are not limited to, climate change impacts.
A narrow-minded view of economics can produce tragic consequences for the future of humanity as a sustainable part of the robust diversity of life on this amazing planet. A comprehensive concern for limiting harm done and developing sustainable improvements for humanity exposes how 'harmfully incorrect the current developed ways of living of most of the supposedly most advanced, most superior, humans are' rather than excusing those unsustainable ways of living.
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Thomas Bevins at 12:15 PM on 13 September 2022Welcome to Skeptical Science
It is easy to be a skeptic when discussing global warming. There is no doubt that global warming is real but without concrete evidence as to why/how, it remains one of our biggest mysteries. It is never easy to convince someone with doubts or reservations that a theory is at all credible without at least a certain amount of evidence. Of course there are studies related to the most obvious, the sun and global warming. The Sun's effect on the oceans, the ocean's effect on the glaciers, and so on... There is a lot of talk that such normalization procedures have increased global warming although most of this site seems to be skeptical of this claim and does not agree. Also, what about the extreme tempature from earths core? It is very interesting that the question was raised to how big of a fissure or fault it would take to open up our ocean floor, allowing the earths core to warm up our oceans; resulting in all the same global warming concerns. -
Mr Pickle at 11:29 AM on 13 September 2022Welcome to Skeptical Science
Denying vlimate change because it seems like way to big of a problem to fix is a very lazy mindset. We all live on the same planet and have to deal with the consiquences of a heating planet regardless of our own personal impact. We should all care more. I think a great way to combat rising carbon dioxide levels is to plant more plants. Plants turn carbon dioxide into oxygen. Planting more plants will help the problem. It will not solve the climate crisis but it can significantlyt help.
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Welcome to Skeptical Science
Personally I think to deny that there has been any type of climate change is to willingly blind yourself to the events happening around the globe and the earth's past. Not only is there significant evidence that the global warming is happening but climate changes such as this are nothing new. It does happen and there's a pattern of ice ages and the inevitable heating that comes after. However, it's important to note that the global warming that is currently hpapening is occurring at a rate that eclipses the previous events by a significant margin. What people need to understadn is that whiel climate change occurs regularly, what the earth is experiencing right now is not normal.
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Gogurt Man at 10:42 AM on 13 September 2022Welcome to Skeptical Science
Climate change is important to understand and should be viewed with a skeptic mindset. That way any theory isn't immediately shut down, but isn't viewed as 100% true. Any individual with a denial mindset shuts down a theory that isn't 100% true which isn't right when it comes to the topic of climate change.
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Triple P Charlie at 10:41 AM on 13 September 2022Welcome to Skeptical Science
LarryCorbett:
I agree with about needing to invent a better Mouse Trap if we are wanting to do anything to "fix" climate change. I think the first step is to stop having denial about climate change. The second would be to find alternatives to things that we use everyday. For example, back home we have a gas station that has unleaded 88 gas this is made up of more ethanol which causes it to burn cleaner than normal gas. Last step is that we have to relaize that we can not simply "fix" climate change as we can not undo the permanent damage that it has already cause. Instead we learn from these mistakes and hopefully pass it on to our future generations.
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Bob Loblaw at 10:35 AM on 13 September 2022New study more than triples estimated costs of climate change damages
That link from nigelj looks like it is part of some course material for an Economics prof at Simon Fraser University. Undoubtedly saved from NOAA to use as teaching material.
Click on the menu drop-down on this link, choose "Courses", and choose Econ 483.
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Reagan123 at 10:13 AM on 13 September 2022Welcome to Skeptical Science
There is no doubt that climate chnage and global warming are happening all around us. I understand there are skeptics but how could you look at all the research and evidence and still go hmmmm maybe not? There are articles about icecaps melting, wildfires due to drout, warmer climate due to moisture in the warmer air. I think it's time we come together as a people and try to cut down our carbon emissions worldwide. We've been gifted this wonderful planet that takes care of us, lets take care of it in return!
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Doug Bostrom at 10:11 AM on 13 September 2022New study more than triples estimated costs of climate change damages
Considering that our escape hatch from the climate change problem we've created is composed of money more than it is hardware, a matter of economics rather than technological capacity, it's sad to see that NOAA's page on discounting appears now to be a relic made available only by the kindness of an SFU faculty member.
Thanks for the link, Nigel.
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dw21808 at 10:05 AM on 13 September 2022How climate change spurs megadroughts
The loss of volume in lake meade is one of the most worrying results of climate change that I have witnessed. While storms are indeed getting stronger, we as humans are able to willfully dismiss this as natural and with a mindset of storms happen. In a sense, we can bury our head in the sand because we can say storms come and go, but life goes on. However, with lake meade disappearing, it makes it extremely difficult to do this. The lake is going but its not coming back and most of all, life won't go on without water. The droughts that are related to climate change has to start somewhere, and to me atleast, it appears like it has started there.
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coldcutz21806 at 09:42 AM on 13 September 2022Welcome to Skeptical Science
I just don't really understand how we can expect to stop using fossil fuels and survive as a society unless we want to go back to monthly grocery trips on horse and buggy on our 4 hour journey to the supermarket, or own a self sustaining farm. Especially with not enough solid proof that you have to put "skeptical" in your group title because of being unsure. The Earth has heated and cooled as long as it has been around. We need fossil fuels to function in the society we live in unless we just want to throw everything away that we have built and manufactured.
Moderator Response:[BL] I think you misunderstand the meaning of "skeptical" in the name of this site. Good scientists are always skeptical - science does not produce 100% certainty in its results. As new evidence comes out, a good scientist will be willing to change his/her mind. New evidence can either increase or decrease our confidence (or uncertainty, if you prefer), but don't expect 100% confidence.
Many who disagree with the mainstream understanding of climate have co-oped the label "skeptic" for a mind-set that is rarely truly skeptical. As it says under the masthead of the Skeptical Science web pages, this site is about "Getting skeptical about global warming skepticism". Our goal is to examine the claims of these false "skeptics" and hold them up to the light of evidence available in the published literature. Most of these claims by the "skeptics" fail under a truly skeptical review.
You may find this recent post of interest:
https://skepticalscience.com/science-what-it-is-how-it-works-and-why-it-matters.html
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Joel21800 at 08:00 AM on 13 September 2022Welcome to Skeptical Science
I think it is beyond healthy to differentiate between skepticism and denial as described in this post, as there are many who may claim to be "skeptical" in regards to climate change but, in reality, believe that climate change is almost completely natural or an outright falsity. Sure, there are some natural effects that may cause a very slight and negligible effect on Earth's temperature, such as the mildy fluctuating temperature of the Sun or orbital pattern of Earth, but these phenomena do not appear to be the cause of the sudden and rapid increase in temperature worldwide. There is also an argument that the Earth experiences natural heating and cooling cycles which, while true, is pretty irrelevant considering these cycles take thousands upon thousands of years to develop and create significant impacts to Earth's temperature anomaly. The changes in climate that we are seeing now have been developing more and more since just the Industrial Revolution, and they have only been getting worse in the past several decades. Humans are technically not the only cause of climate change, as there are natural forces that can change Earth's environment in such a way, but it is important to understand that these natural factors are, again, negligible, and humans have done most of the heavy-lifting in contributing to global warming, especially through carbon dioxide emissions. I haven't been the most well-researched person when it comes to climate change, but in no way have I ever once thought of denying the possibility that maybe, just maybe, humans are a direct cause for the plethora of climate related problems we are facing to today.
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cayde62 at 07:53 AM on 13 September 2022Welcome to Skeptical Science
Clearly climate change is a pressing issue for the health of our beautiful Earth, and I am delighted to see such a website dedicated to hosting a plethora of insightful information that can be used to better understand this issue. I mostly look forward to reading the rebuttal section which deals with the most common climate change myths. Understanding the key arguments that are connected to the most commonly said climate change myths is one of the biggest keys to understanding the climate change situation in my opinion.
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justice4all at 07:13 AM on 13 September 2022Welcome to Skeptical Science
As global temperatures rise it becomes more and more apparent that the reduction of our carbon footprint is essential for the planets survival. Temperatures are trending upward due to all the excess carbon in the atmosphere. Burning fossil fuels and deforestation is also aiding in the extra global carbon output. Forest are mother nature’s carbon filter, but due to forest loss the planet cant keep up. I feel as a society we are capable of amazing feats of science. We need to focus the worlds greatest minds to build and develop atmospheric filters to manually reduce the amounts of carbon in our atmosphere. We are responsible for the extra gasses so we should do our best to find a solution. Thankfully the technology to do this is being developed currently. Just outside Zurich, more than a dozen massive fans are fast at work, cleaning the air of carbon dioxide. So-called direct air capture is the leading edge of what could become the largest environmental industry aimed at saving the planet. The company behind it, Climeworks, is one of the few offering the technology to basically vacuum the atmosphere of carbon. The plant in Switzerland removes about 900 tons of carbon dioxide per year, according to Climeworks policy chief Chris Beuttler. To put it in perspective, globally we are emitting 40 billion tons.
DianaOlick. (2021, July 29). These companies are sucking carbon out of the atmosphere - and investors are piling in. CNBC. Retrieved September 12, 2022, from https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/these-companies-are-sucking-carbon-from-the-atmosphere.html
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nigelj at 07:02 AM on 13 September 2022New study more than triples estimated costs of climate change damages
The following comments contain interesting examples of the discount rate concept applied to various environmental issues, and discusses some of the dilemmas involved, expanding on those OPOF mentions:
www.sfu.ca/~heaps/483/discounting.htm
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Bobby21796 at 03:05 AM on 13 September 2022Welcome to Skeptical Science
While studying climate change, it is important that we have a skeptic mindset and not a denial mindset. Skeptics look for a definitive answer backed by evidence while peopel with a denial mindset shut down anything that is not proven correct. All the data with climate change should be viewed with skeptic mindset, not denial. This is so any theory or data that is not 100% proven is still accepted. A denialist would shut down anything that is only 99% correct. A skeptic would say that 99% is probably true. Not everything always lines up or makes sense to us, but that does not mean it is not true and can be denied.
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One Planet Only Forever at 01:57 AM on 13 September 2022New study more than triples estimated costs of climate change damages
Arguably (meaning a reasoned justification exists - as opposed to claiming an argument based on unreasonable rationalizations) the 2% discount rate used by the evaluation should be considered to be an upper limit on the discount rate.
The following World Bank ... Blogs post provides reasons why "Zero" is a more appropriate basis for these type of evaluations.
Using a zero-discount rate could help choose better projects and help get to net zero carbon
My MBA education and life experience supports this. The discount rate should only be used when the same people who benefit now will "exclusively" face the full future consequences. It is used to compare alternative "Investment Options" for an investing group, a group that wants to chose the option that maximizes their net-present-value (the evaluation of full life-cycle value of the investment converted to current day dollars by 'discounting' the future revenue and costs). It is meant to differentiate the magnitude of the future increased value compared to the required initial investment. It is not a concept that should be used to evaluate and compare how much will be lost by investment choices.
Applying a discount rate to compare the magnitude of negative impact options, like the increasing of climate change harm, would result in the selection of 'biggest losing options'. Using the higher rate results in evaluations justifying more climate change harm done.
It is simply and clearly unethical to use a discount rate to justify how much harm can be done to Others. And all of the future generations of humanity, as well as many members of currently living humanity, are being harmed by the actions that a portion of current day humanity inequitably benefit from.
Most rapidly ending the harm done is the ethical requirement. Using a discount rate to justify doing less than could be done to limit harm, to justify doing more harm, is part of what Peter Singer referred to as the 'Era of Excuses' in his book Animal Liberation (an ethical argument that is interesting to re-read by replacing "limiting harm done to other life" with "climate change harm done to other life").
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MSU student at 13:13 PM on 12 September 2022Welcome to Skeptical Science
Thank you so much for this site. I am in search of answers to solutions and reading through the comments this seems like a well-knowledgeable audience. I am a current student and would love some really great data on Nuclear Fusion, how far they have come and predictions on how long it would last the world. I have read a couple of articles and I would love some great opinions on the matter. I think it could be just what the world needs. If everyone could come together and make changes to completely eradicate fossil fuels. The problem would be, of course getting every country to follow suit. Not just from closed mindedness but poverty as well.
Moderator Response:[BL] Welcome to Skeptical Science.
It looks like we have quite a few new users posting here on the Welcome thread - almost as if it is a class project or assignment.
In general, we try to keep discussions focused, so that all readers and participants can find on-topic conversation and help each other understand the issues. I'll remind all participants that we have a Comments Policy that helps guide participants. You can always find a link to it above the text box where you enter your comments.
That being said, nuclear energy is a topic that often creates somewhat heated discussion. Skeptical Science does not have team members that are experts in this area, so we do not have a lot of posts that cover the topic. We do have some reasonably-well-informed commenters, but we also have some discussions that include not-so-well-informed participants! (Welcome to the Internet!)
You can use the Search box on the upper left of each page to find posts related to any search terms you like. You will find the results broken into two categories:
- Posts that are in our "rebuttal" section - our bread-and-butter responses to the most common myths about climate change. The top 10 and a link to all arguments are found just below the search box on the upper left of every page.
- Individual blog posts that have appeared over the years.
You also have the option (on the search results page) to extend the search into the comments. That can return an awfully long list, though.
Searching for "nuclear", a few posts that might be of interest are:
https://skepticalscience.com/small-modular-nukes.html
https://skepticalscience.com/wrong-nuclear-energy-debate.html
https://skepticalscience.com/NuclearEnergy.html
https://skepticalscience.com/GND-nuclear-power.html
Reading the comments, as well as the post, can be informative.
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john cena at 12:41 PM on 12 September 2022Welcome to Skeptical Science
Global warming or climate change is a very big thing in thr world right now. Most people know it's happening but are in denial because they don't think they can change it. I believe if someone is in denial it's more hard to get out of that stage becuase you know it's a problem you just don't really want to help.
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Cosmo Kramer at 10:28 AM on 12 September 2022Welcome to Skeptical Science
In order to have an informed opinion about climate change, it is important to be skeptical about, but not deny, the information presented about it. In order to truly understand it, the data needs to be looked at without any preconceived ideas. All the data presented should be viewed with a skeptical mindset, where ideas are not denied or accepted immediately upon viewing, but where they are held until they are supported by enough extra evidence. After this, an informed opinion can truly be created. This is especially important for climate change, where the vast majority of information supports the idea that it is caused by humans, but a small majority goes against this idea. A properly formed opinion requires a skeptic mindset.
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patrick.tumlin at 10:20 AM on 12 September 2022Welcome to Skeptical Science
Climate change has become a major problem in today's society because it has been let go for so many years without any restrictions or guidelines. Most people are either skeptical of climate change or in denial. It is better for people to be skeptical than in denial because they are more likely to realize just how real that it is. If something doesn't change soon, what kind of environment will our kids have to grow up in? It is time that we focus on the climate crisis that is presented before us and take action.
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Pumpkinspiceseason at 10:02 AM on 12 September 2022Welcome to Skeptical Science
Climate Change is real and I hope we can find a way to stop it. Using fossil fuels is definitely the reason to blame. One promising energy generator/storage is pumped hydro storage (PMS). Even with that though there are four issues; the rate of power delivery that is to come from storage, the length of time over which this rate would have to be maintained, the rate at which energy would have to be stored given the intermittent pattern of its availability and the efficiency of the full cycle (Trainer, 2017).
Works Cited
Ted Trainer,
Some problems in storing renewable energy,
Energy Policy,
Volume 110,
2017,
Pages 386-393,
ISSN 0301-4215,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.07.061 .
(https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421517304925) -
jonsnow at 09:09 AM on 12 September 2022Welcome to Skeptical Science
I agree that skepticism is better than denial. I think that in order to form a decent opinion regarding climate change, all of the facts need to be considered. That being said, I myself can see that we need to have more people who are "skeptics" rather than in "denaial". We need this change in order to stop the planet from burning up. If we do not make this change, the damage we could cause now and in the future is unfathomable. I will thoroughly enjoy looking at all of the theories and myths regarding climate change on this website.
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MA Rodger at 22:12 PM on 11 September 2022CO2 effect is saturated
GreenEarth @661,
As Eclectic @ 663 says, your "mystery" is a 'phycisist' thing. You would get a reply from a physicist that it is well known that all thing which absorb photons likewise emit them. And to provide authority for such a statement they would cite Beer's Law.
This is true, but most folk would not find this entirely helpful.Consider the specrum of light. It is well known to have absorption lines which provide the fingerprint of the gases which cause those apsorption lines. But these are identical to the less-well known emission lines of those gases, the lines being caused by the difference in temperature of the gases and the more distant 'background emitter'. If the gases are cooler than the background, the lines will show as absorpion. If the gases are hotter they will show as emitters.
See also this 'Lesson Explainer' which may help.At lower temperatures (and thus lower energies) where only IR is being emitted, the more simple molecules like N2, O2 & Ar are entirely transparent, neither absorbing nor emitting IR.
Greenhouse gases are more complex molecules so can waggle in more complex ways than mono- & bi-atomic molecules, these waggles defining the basic absorption wavelengths. Thus for CO2, the waggles, (top to bottom in the diagram) v1, v2 & v3, are caused by abrosbing IR at 2.7 microns, 15 microns and 4.3 microns. They are also caused (and in our atmosphere overwhelmingly so) by collisions with other air mollecules, collisions which also overwhelmingly de-waggle the CO2. A CO2 molecule getting the chance to de-waggle by emitting an IR photon is comparatively rare (although there is loads of CO2 molecules so IR is emitted).
Our atmosphere is too cold to give a strong enough bash to the CO2 to impart the v1 & v3 waggles, so it is only the 15 micron v2 that concerns us. The v1 waggle is induced in the atmosphere by sunlight which is just about still significant at 2.7 microns, but our atmosphere is not hot enough to create v1 waggles so there are no IR emissions at 2.7 microns. And by 4.3 microns the sunlight is entirely weak while the atmosphere is still too cold, so v3 falls between the terrestrial and solar energies and is absent here on Earth.
Moderator Response:[BL] Note that comments have been moving around a bit due to deletions. Eclectic's comment 663 is now at 661.
Before anyone spends a lot more time on responses to some of these questions, it may be worth waiting to see if the comment survives moderation. We've seen a lot of thread-bombing on this particular subject in the past 2-3 months, seeing the same tired old "criticisms" of basic science. Although posed as questions, the commenter(s) rarely have any desire to learn the science.
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Eclectic at 21:36 PM on 11 September 2022CO2 effect is saturated
Thanks MARodger @662 ~ sorry to have cross-posted with you.
The more the merrier, I hope. As you indicate, the subject is not particularly intuitive, and I hope to learn something more from GreenEarth's previous experience at other internet sites.
Moderator Response:[BL] Response to deleted comment
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Eclectic at 21:28 PM on 11 September 2022CO2 effect is saturated
Hi GreenEarth (@661) ,
Offhand, I am not sure which would be the best page here to point you to ~ IIRC this information can be found on a number of threads (and perhaps a kindly Moderator can indicate some suitable ones).
What we are talking about is very basic stuff known by all physicists having any connection with radiation & atmosphere (in other words, climate science).
In short, the atmospheric molecules are all knocking about against each other. Likewise for the various molecules of the Earth's surface ~ energy passes from surface to atmosphere, and vice versa, by these impacts. There is also bi-directional energy exchange between the planetary surface and adjacent air, via radiated photons. (Of course, there is also short-wave photonic energy coming from the sun ~ including from clouds, dispersion by dust etcetera in the air.)
The surface loses "heat" upwards by convection, by evaporation/condensation, and by radiation (mostly by radiation into the atmosphere, but a small amount by direct radiation out to space via the "window" band around 10 microns). The so-called "sensible heat" loss (producing warm air and thus convection) derives from molecular impacts as well as the limited-range radiation you have mentioned earlier.
Once the energy has risen to the so-called Top Of Atmosphere [TOA] it can then be radiated out into space (the TOA altitude level is different for CO2, H2O, CH4 , and other greenhouse gasses).
I hope I have not been repeating too much stuff that you already know.
The essential point is that because the greenhouse gas molecules are so thinly distributed among the bulk of N2/O2 air molecules, they are speeding/ slowing/ vibrating owing to impacts with the N2/O2 molecules which are moving at the (average) speed determined by the local air temperature. In effect, CO2 [for example] is able to broadcast 15 micron photons by gaining energy from local air (and by radiating, effectively cools the adjacent air). Almost all the energy for radiation comes from impact energy ~ and only a minuscule amount is contributed from a received/absorbed 15 micron photon from a "distant" CO2 molecule.
This is the reason why the concentration of CO2 at near-surface altitude is irrelevant to the greenhouse warming effect ~ because the concentration at TOA is the important determiner of the planetary effect. Then we get to the importance of the temperature at TOA and the actual altitude at TOA combined with the Lapse Rate temperature gradient.
GreenEarth, my apologies if my condensed explanation is not as clear as you would like, but I hope it sets you off in a useful direction of exploration of the basic concepts. And I would be interested to know where the incorrect ideas you got were coming from.
Moderator Response:[BL] Portions snipped. Note that this is a response to a deleted comment. The poster in question has been pointed to appropriate places may times, but has not shown a positive learning slope.
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MA Rodger at 20:29 PM on 11 September 2022CO2 effect is saturated
GreenEarth @659,
The quote from the 'Advanced' rebuttal you make continues:-But on the way up this light will find a decreasing pressure, i.e. less CO2 molecules. There will be a point where the light can escape to the outer space. The intensity of the emerging light will be appropriate for the temperature of this "last" layer layer.
And this is then followed by description of a simplistic model of a spreading absorption band caused by increased CO2. (It isn't perhaps the best of descriptions but the physics is both complex and novel for general consumption so what is 'best' will always be debatable.)
The continuation of your quote is saying that it the altitude from which IR is emitted into space that is the important, this being the effective radiative "top of the atmosphere".
And adding more CO2 (which is well-mixed up to the top of the stratosphere at 50km) puts more high-up CO2 in the way of the IR that would previously have exited to space. So more CO2 pushes the CO2 "TOA" further up not lower down.
If you consider the additional CO2 near the surface, more CO2 does indeed reduce the path length of IR before it encounters a CO2 molecule to absorb it. But because CO2 both emits and absorbs IR in equal measure**, while the IR has a shorter path length, with added CO2 more IR is being emitted. At a constant temperture, the shorter path length and the increased emissions cancel out. (**As Eclectic @660 says, CO2 emits due to collisions with other air mollecules. These collisions also absorb the energy from almost all absorbed IR. Because of this, the level of IR emission is determined by temperature and not by IR emissions from the surface.)Moderator Response:[BL] Note that this is a response to deleted comment.
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Eclectic at 19:33 PM on 11 September 2022CO2 effect is saturated
GreenEarth @659 :
In general, a CO2 molecule radiates a 15 micron photon after gaining energy from impact with a neighbouring O2 or N2 molecule. This type of impact happens at all levels of the troposphere/stratosphere. (The similar mechanism also applies with all the other greenhouse gasses.)
Therefore your stated supposition about altitude and radiation of photonic energy is entirely wrong. (But I am curious where you got such an erroneous idea from. Can you elaborate? )
Moderator Response:[BL] Snipped portions that are a direct response to a deleted comment
Note that this issue of absorbed radiation being transferred to other molecules has been discussed recently in this thread. A detailed explanation of at Eli Rabbet's was previously pointed out in the moderation comments on comment 655.
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Bob Loblaw at 07:42 AM on 11 September 2022A critical review of Steven Koonin’s ‘Unsettled’
dvaytw:
I dont' know what IPCC report Koonin is reading, but when I read the "Headline Statements" for AR6 Working Group II, I don't see the rosy picture that Koonin does.
Selectively quoting from a few of their headlines (bolding mine):
B1. Human-induced climate change, including more frequent and intense extreme events, has caused widespread adverse impacts and related losses and damages to nature and people, beyond natural climate variability.
B2. Approximately 3.3 to 3.6 billion people live in contexts that are highly vulnerable to climate change (high confidence).
B4 Beyond 2040 and depending on the level of global warming, climate change will lead to numerous risks to natural and human systems (high confidence). For 127 identified key risks, assessed mid- and long- term impacts are up to multiple times higher than currently observed (high confidence).
These do not seem to fit the normal definition of "minimal".
Perhaps he is still using something he prepared in the 1990s, when "the end of this century" was the year 2000?
As usual, consulting Skeptical Science's Most Used Climate Myths,
- Number 3 is "It's not bad"
- Number 67 is "CO2 limits will hurt the poor".
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michael sweet at 01:24 AM on 11 September 2022A critical review of Steven Koonin’s ‘Unsettled’
dvaytw:
You list two items where you think Koonan was correct and climate scientists are incorrect:
1) "The economic impacts of climate change will be minimal to the end of this century". Tell that to Pakistan which has suffered $30 billion of damage from the worst flooding recorded. Record flooding is occuring around the world. There are billions of dollars damage in the USA alone from forrest fires, and those fires are happening around the entire globe. The damage suffered yearly now are severe, we don't need to wait untill the end of the centuary.
2) "Use of fossil fuels is the only real means by which developing countries can achieve parity". Perhaps you have not noticed but a shortage of fossil fuels are currenly causing economic pain across the world. Countries that have invested in renewable energy are doing great! Renewable energy is the cheapest energy all around the world now and is cheaper every year. Meanwhile fossil fuels get more expensive every year since all the cheap fossil fuel was mined years ago. Do you want to condem developing nations to expensive, polluting energy that they will have to replace as soon as it is built with cheaper renewable energy? I note that in developed countries little new fossil fuel generators are being built, virtually all new installations for new energy are renewable. In addition, distributed solar can be installed immediately virtually everywhere while central fossil generation requires expensive transmission systems that do not exist in developing countries.
Your arguments were false ten years ago and are absurd now. Read more and get up to date.
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Bob Loblaw at 22:20 PM on 10 September 2022Reasons to avoid false balance and fake debates
Zoli:
That's what you took away from that cartoon? Fashion statements and a broad sweeping declaration about the beliefs of 15th and 16th century people?
FYI, there are people around today that still believe in a flat earth. Fewer now than there were in the 15th and 16th centuries, but still a few. The suggestion in the cartoon is that their beliefs are, shall we politely say, somewhat antiquated - like the wardrobe of the character in the cartoon.
So, you can reject it all as "misinformation" because you want to read something into the cartoon that isn't really there - or you could actually read the text and consider the argument being made.
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Eclectic at 19:12 PM on 10 September 2022A critical review of Steven Koonin’s ‘Unsettled’
Dvaytw, as a small matter of interest, I checked on Youtube (where the Dessler/Koonin debate is made public).
The earlier video release was 9 days ago, and shows currently as 12,069 views. Another release was 3 days ago, and managed 163 views so far. That's a bit discouraging. Maybe next time the producers of the debate can substitute with actors such as George Clooney & Brad Pitt. But I suspect even using photogenic speakers is not going to set a-flame the world's attention. Sad reflection on human nature, eh.
(Are there other video releases you can point me to?)
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Eclectic at 18:35 PM on 10 September 2022Reasons to avoid false balance and fake debates
Zoli @1 ,
please allow some artistic licence, for humorous effect. (But you are quite right ~ even the Ancient Greeks did not use ruff collars.)
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Zoli at 18:25 PM on 10 September 2022Reasons to avoid false balance and fake debates
Thank you spreading the misinformation with that picture, that suggests renaissance-early modern people didn't know about the spherical Earth.
For your information, America was discovered in 1492, and Magellan's fleet circumnavigated around the globe in 1519-22. Both happened during the renaissance, predating the fashion of that ruff collar.
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Eclectic at 18:15 PM on 10 September 2022A critical review of Steven Koonin’s ‘Unsettled’
Dvaytw @21 : my 2 cents on that August 2022 debate :-
Two questions.
A/ What is "minimal" impact? To use those cliches Global North and Global South . . . the North has considerable fat on its waistline. For instance, in the USA the wealth of the socioeconomic top 1% is approx 40 trillion USD ~ so the nation could comfortably manage to deal with a plus/minus 10% economic impact over the course of the next eighty-ish years.
# But for the South, things like the [presentday] disastrous Pakistan flooding/ other droughts floods heatwaves and increasing sea-level rise (over the coming 100 years & beyond) . . . are heading in the direction of cumulating catastrophe, which will fall most heavily on the South. Quite possibly the total global GNP's will continue to increase [to the applause of economists] ~ but that would provide little comfort against a vast scale of human misery. So shame on Koonin, if that is his line of "economic impact" argument.
B/ What do the people of the so-called developing countries actually need over the next 100 years? First answer is : food/ shelter/ education/ freedom from oppression, and so on. Parity, in the sense of a widescreen television etcetera would be nice, but it is a long way down the immediate wish list, I'm sure. Neither the food nor the TV will be produced by a large ramping-up of fossil fuel usage. Much reform (and careful international aid) is needed ~ but Koonin is absurd if he opines that Nigeria will necessarily benefit from more oil production or Congo Republic benefit from more cobalt production.
If Koonin thinks that more fossil fuel usage will not cause an overall digging-deeper of the present "hole" for global conditions, then he is being disingenuous (for the sake of quickie debate points).
# Third question . . . is the Koonin/Dessler debate worth viewing? Dvaytw, if the two points you mention are the best/strongest that Koonin can do, then their debate sure ain't worth viewing.
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dvaytw at 16:04 PM on 10 September 2022A critical review of Steven Koonin’s ‘Unsettled’
I've read Koonin's book, as well as every online critique I could find... but I haven't been able to discover a response to what I think are Koonin's strongest points - by which IMO he decisively defeated Dressler in their recent Soho debate (of August, 2022). The first is that, according to the IPCC's own forecasts, the economic impacts of climate change will be minimal to the end of this century. The second is that use of fossil fuels is the only real means by which developing countries can achieve parity with developed countries over the coming century. If anyone can respond to these two big points I would great appreciate it!
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Eric (skeptic) at 11:09 AM on 10 September 2022How climate change spurs megadroughts
Thanks for the reference to the "History of ENSO..." and for the link that worked for me too. The paper references some of the same authors earlier work (e.g. Stahle 1998) for part of the reconstruction: Google Scholar for Stahle 1998. In that 1998 paper they say:
The reconstruction model relies heavily (though not exclusively; Table 1) on the tree-growth response in subtropical North America to wet conditions during El Nino years and dry conditions during La Nina years. However, this model does not uniquely fingerprint ENSO extremes because other circulation patterns can bring drought or wetness to the Texas-Mexico region
It is complicated and the correlation is being used for a reconstruction, not a study of North American drought or causation. As Stahle 1998 points out the drought and wetness has other causes.
I looked through some of the references from History of ENSO and found there were suggestions of more intense and/or prolonged ENSO as early as 1996 (Trenberth and Hoar):
The late 20th century contained a number of extreme and prolonged ENSO episodes (Trenberth and Hoar 1996), including the two most intense El Niños (1982– 1983 and 1997–1998) and La Niñas (1988–1989, 1973–1974).
I think the evidence for prolonged and more intense ENSO cycles is stronger now. Some papers that cite the History of ENSO paper and use that same history to study other drought and rainfall effects. One is Multicentury Evaluation of Recovery from Strong Precipitation Deficits in California which looks at the role of very strong El Nino (e.g. 2016) in drought recovery (2012-15 drought) in California. Note that paper does not look at what role if any that La Nina had, just the role of strong El Nino in drought recovery.
We know from further experience that the 2016 recovery didn't last long. Any effect of global warming on the sign of ENSO will be important if ENSO is an important factor in drought and drought recovery. Also prolonged La Nina like the current one will be problematic if it causes drought and is prolonged by global warming.
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Bob Loblaw at 06:20 AM on 10 September 2022How climate change spurs megadroughts
The second and third figures in the post show pretty dramatic changes. I have visited both areas. The satellite images don't really show the full drama of the change that you see from ground level, though.
The first of the two is just east of Lost Wages Las Vegas. I visited the area in 2009, and the drop in water level was very dramatic. Quite the sequence of bathtub rings.
The second satellite image is from the top of Lake Powell. The Colorado River flows from east to west across the image, and enters Lake Powell at Hite. Or, what used to be Hite, which disappeared under the lake when it was formed. If you look on Google Earth, you can still see an abandoned marina area marked, which was shut down in the mid-2000s due to low water levels. Google Earth historical images are also quite interesting.
Highway 95 crosses the Colorado River just before the bend in the satellite image. I visited there in 2008, and there was enough water to provide for some lush vegetation. Not so lush now.
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One Planet Only Forever at 06:20 AM on 10 September 2022How climate change spurs megadroughts
Doug Bostrom,
The potential ENSO problem is indeed a significant concern, and is well summarized in the following quote from the abstract:
"Although extreme ENSO events are seen throughout the 478-year ENSO reconstruction, approximately 43% of extreme and 28% of all protracted ENSO events (i.e. both El Niño and La Niña phase) occur in the 20th century. The post-1940 period alone accounts for 30% of extreme ENSO years observed since A.D. 1525. These results suggest that ENSO may operate differently under natural (pre-industrial) and anthropogenic background states. As evidence of stresses on water supply, agriculture and natural ecosystems caused by climate change strengthens, studies into how ENSO will operate under global warming should be a global research priority."
Of course, a major part of the problem is the powerful developed bias against any research that is considered to:
- be less likely to produce short-term economic benefits than other research
- potentially require external governing to limit harm done by desired activity that is beneficial to some but harmful to others (popular or profitable among beneficiaries who are able to compromise 'governing actions' - misguiding research funding and other ways of penalizing 'Institutions of Learning' to make them more compliant 'pursuers of desired types of learning')
- potentially require the rapid ending of a developed popular or profitable activity by external governing and penalty to bring about a more rapid ending of the activity to limit the total harm done.
Undeniably climate change research unintentionally produced these 'learning and research fears and threats' triggering a massive harmful aggressive response from people who like to benefit from:
- harmful unsustainable beliefs and actions
- a lack of awareness of the harm done
- excusing the harm done because of the benefits obtained
- claiming that the future is always better so future generations will naturally create amazing improvements in spite of the harm being done to the ability of others, especially future generations, to live better lives.
Human willingness to be harmfully misled, or excuse and ignore the harm done, puts more than "Breakfast, lunch and dinner are under threat".
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Bob Loblaw at 06:01 AM on 10 September 2022How climate change spurs megadroughts
Doug's original link @ 7 also got me to an "Oops. It looks like you are in the wrong aisle" page. (Custom error 404 page...)
OPOF's link works for me.
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One Planet Only Forever at 05:43 AM on 10 September 2022How climate change spurs megadroughts
Doug @7,
That link did not work for me.
The link (here) got me to a page where a pdf of "A history of ENSO events since AD 1525: implications for future climate change" could be downloaded for Free.
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Bob Loblaw at 23:11 PM on 9 September 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #36 2022
David-acct:
Note that is is usually best to point out what it is at that link that you want to bring to people's attention. Link-only posts are discouraged.
For what it is worth, that study does not suggest that this higher-than-previously-thought geothermal heat flux is new. The estimates are at a higher spatial resolution than previous studies, and indicate an area of higher fluxes around Thwaites, but it is still in the "a couple of hundred milliWatts/m2" range.
And it is related to long-standing tectonic features, so it has been happening for a while. The news release in your second link says "which has likely affected the sliding behavior of the ice masses for millions of years".
So, of interesting note in terms of the dynamics of Thwaites, but not an isolated explanation of any recent changes in behaviour.
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David-acct at 11:45 AM on 9 September 2022Skeptical Science New Research for Week #36 2022
www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/08/210818083957.htm
FWIW - the thwaites glacier along with most of west antarctica has lots of geothermal activity.
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Doug Bostrom at 07:35 AM on 9 September 2022How climate change spurs megadroughts
Germane by topic and extra useful thanks to its nature and hence collection of citations, Eric:
A history of ENSO events since AD 1525: implications for future climate change
Actually, not only Eric ought to take a look. We've got hydrometeorological problems. "People gotta eat." Breakfast, lunch and dinner are under threat.
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Eric (skeptic) at 00:53 AM on 9 September 2022How climate change spurs megadroughts
Sorry, left out the link: Google Scholar Link. Multiyear La Nin ̃a events and persistent drought in the contiguous United States
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Eric (skeptic) at 00:31 AM on 9 September 2022How climate change spurs megadroughts
Thanks for the feedback and suggestions. I want to clear up the dates for weaker monsoon since 2000 and La Nina since 1999. They are not related as far as I know, but they could be. The Pacific is cooler during La Nina and it is one of the two monsoon moisture sources for the SW US monsoon. Could be related in some other ways.
Monsoon weaker starting in 2000: NWS Phoenix monsoon data. Predominant La Nina starting in 1999: MEI Time Series (NOAA) from psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/ Note that the monsoon statistics are only Phoenix AZ so a somewhat limited depiction. Also note that the MEI is one of several ENSO indexes. The Jan Null link provided above uses Nino 3.4 ocean temperatures. The regime change from El Nino (red in MEI link) to La Nina (blue in MEI link) doesn't show up nearly as much in the Nino 3.4 data.
I acknowldege my data is limited. But I believe drought is a natural occurrence affected by global warming. Drought will be more intense since warmer air holds more moisture from evaporation and transpiration. It can start sooner and end later for the same reason.
The climate.gov ENSO change analysis is very helpful. I believe however they should say the "switches" are affected in various ways by warming. It's not particularly useful to use "climate change" to describe cause and effect since climate change (not further defined) can be either cause or effect. The increase in amplitude is notable but their caveat is noted. I agree that the modeling is difficult and adding warming doesn't make it any easier. I think that added warmth doesn't necessarily change the sign of ENSO but wil enhance precipitation as they note, without adding much drought over the ocean (except possibly drier in the mid and upper levels). That could increase ENSO intensity since it is primary driven by precipitation.
I'll look at the hydrology material next.
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Doug Bostrom at 14:23 PM on 8 September 2022How climate change spurs megadroughts
Review the last half dozen or so "Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change" sections of our weekly new research feature to get an initial grip on the complexity of the topic, Eric. "It's not that simple."
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scaddenp at 09:13 AM on 7 September 2022How climate change spurs megadroughts
Some analysis of whether ENSO has changed here. "There is no clear evidence that any changes since 1950 in ENSO are all that unusual." Even more so if proxy records are used. Also, it is incredibly unclear how global warming will change ENSO. "But regardless of any changes in ENSO sea surface temperatures, in intermediate to very high GHG scenarios, it is very likely that rainfall variability over the east-central tropical Pacific will increase significantly (4). Basically, we may expect El Niño to be wetter in this region and La Niña may be drier. "
That prediction seems to be holding.
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One Planet Only Forever at 06:17 AM on 7 September 2022How climate change spurs megadroughts
Eric,
Please share more details of the basis for your comments regarding El Nino and La Nina. The presentation of the history of El Nino and La Nina by Jan Null (here) based on the NOAA ONI evaluations does not appear to show the dramatic difference before and after 2000 that you infer. I am also curious about the choice of 2000 for the dividing year and the limit of 1980, note the significance of La Nina in the 1970s).
Also, what is the basis for the claim about monsoons. My understanding is that changes of monsoon timing and intensity affect agriculture that has developed in monsoon affected regions (earlier or later can be a problem, significantly more or less rain can be a problem).
