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Comments 36901 to 36950:
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mbryson at 12:38 PM on 6 May 2014Brandis confuses right to be heard with right to be taken seriously
Warren: There's plenty of evidence of parallels between denial of AGW and other forms of denial like vaccine and evolution denial-- just like there's plenty of evidence for AGW (in both cases, I recommend follow-up reading in the published, peer-reviewed literature). The moves are always the same: denial is defended as an 'epistemic fixed point', and all else is "in doubt". Real skepticism questions hypotheses (like the claim that AGW isn't happening and/or poses no threat) when multiple independent lines of evidence indicate that their contraries (it is happening, and it poses a threat) are much better supported. Your selective zombie skepticism is not a strength at all-- it's a (catastrophic) weakness.
(BTW, the 'C' in your 'CAGW' is not helping your case: it was invented by deniers and always comes with a sneer. If you want to be taken seriously, you should use the terms/acronyms actually used in the literature.)
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jetfuel at 12:02 PM on 6 May 2014The consequences of climate change (in our lifetimes)
How much will be said on here about the recent run-up in polar ice? It seems like my world got so cold this winter. 15 below zero on the saturday morning after my ski trip Feb 10th. I'm happy that 97% of the Arctic ice is back and Antarctic ice is above normal. But I know next winter will be another one with high heating bills. My house uses nat gas so that tempers things a little, but electricity per kwh has gone up 40% since 2009.
One thing I don't get is how the 33 cu miles of land melt on Antarctica can be the reason for a run uo to 13 million sq km of sea ice there? Seems like a drop in the bucket to me.
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Warren Hindmarsh at 11:52 AM on 6 May 2014Brandis confuses right to be heard with right to be taken seriously
Here we go again, claiming those who are skepitcal of (snip) AGW are linked to conspiracy theories etc.and are unwilling to "step up". Okay don't agree with Brandis but don't imply the skeptical view is linked to "similarities with vaccination and evolution" I notice you couldn't resist throwing in "alien abduction" and "conspiracy theories" as well. To be skeptical is a strength not a weakness. Even if you have a belief you should always still question it.
Moderator Response:[JH] You are continuing to skate on the thin ice of excessive repetition and sloganeering-- both of which are prohibited by the SkS Comments Policy.
Please note that posting comments here at SkS is a privilege, not a right. This privilege can be rescinded if the posting individual treats adherence to the Comments Policy as optional, rather than the mandatory condition of participating in this online forum.
Please take the time to review the policy and ensure future comments are in full compliance with it. Thanks for your understanding and compliance in this matter.
[PW] In further support of JH's appropriate moderation of this comment, any mention of "CAGW" will have the "C" removed, replaced with a plain "snip." This is nothing but a dismissives' tactic of denigrating the robust and well-supported theory of AGW, and it will no longer be tolerated by this Moderator. Its inclusion has no place at all within the bounds of rational and science-based dialogue.
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One Planet Only Forever at 11:40 AM on 6 May 2014Brandis confuses right to be heard with right to be taken seriously
The,
Demand that consideration must be given to the interests of those who are not interested in developing the best understanding of what is going on when doing so would contradict their desire to be free to benefit from unacceptable unsustainable and damaging actions,
is an obviously absurd demand (except in the mind of someone who want to prolong and maximize their ability to get away with unacceptable behaviour).
The attempt, and ability, to attract popular support through such absurdity is also easy to understand, but it clearly is not acceptable regardless of its potential popularity.
Democracy and Society only benefit from the actions of people who place the developent of a sustainable bettre future for all above their personal desire for profit, pleasure, comfort or convenience.
Those who only care about themselves are worse than useless - They can be damaging - No matter how poular it may be to believe otherwise.
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ubrew12 at 04:58 AM on 6 May 2014Brandis confuses right to be heard with right to be taken seriously
"The debate is over when I say it is" just allows deep pockets to maintain 'the debate' long past the time for taking evidence-based action. Perhaps the public needs a better understanding of two things: 1) All science is debatable, and it always will be. Its in the nature of open inquiry. 2) Not taking action is taking action. So, from the point of view of Science nothing is ever resolved, while in the view of Policy, everything in Science is always resolved. You take action based on the information you have. You can moderate your action based on Scientific uncertainty, but you can't Not take action. Saying you won't take evidence-based action until 'the debate is over' evokes that warning by Confucius: "He who deliberates fully before taking a step will spend his entire life on one leg."
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localis at 04:27 AM on 6 May 20142014 SkS Weekly Digest #18
Until enough of us are dramatically and obviously reducing our carbon emissions others won't feel any compulsion to do likewise. It will only be when the worlds' more conspicuous fossil fuel consumers start to feel some guilt and embarrassment about their life-style that there may be some hope of a better future. Those of us who are making a determined effort to reduce our emissions are but a tiny fraction of the population for the majority will always blame the government for their own lack of action at an individual level. Until the media and governments make a forthright condemnation of the denialist agenda I fear little will change.
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John Hartz at 04:09 AM on 6 May 2014Food Security: the first big hit from Climate Change will be to our pockets
The Editor's Summary of Lobell (2014) cited in my prior post speaks directly to the issues raised in the OP.
Predicting Responses to Drought
The U.S. Corn Belt accounts for a sizeable portion of the world's maize growth. Various influences have increased yields over the years. Lobell et al. (p. 516; see the Perspective by Ort and Long) now show that sensitivity to drought has been increasing as well. It seems that as plants have been bred for increased yield under ideal conditions, the plants become more sensitive to non-ideal conditions. A key factor may be the planting density. Although today's maize varieties are more robust to crowding and the farmer can get more plants in per field, this same crowding takes a toll when water resources are limited.
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John Hartz at 04:06 AM on 6 May 2014Food Security: the first big hit from Climate Change will be to our pockets
Here's another "hot off the press" article. This one addresses climate change's potential impact on corn production in the U.S.
How Climate Change Is Making America’s Favorite Crop More Vulnerable by Emily Atkin, Climate Proress, May 5, 2014.
Atkin's article is based on the peer-reviewed, Greater Sensitivity to Drought Accompanies Maize Yield Increase in the U.S. Midwest, David E. Lobell et al, Science, May 2, 2014
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wili at 23:14 PM on 5 May 20142014 SkS Weekly Digest #18
The legislator who authored the bill outlawing indoor smoking in my state was himself a smoker. He recognized it as an addiction, and he recognized that he and other smokers did not have the right to polute other people's lungs.
We are indeed in the position of having to be 'slave holders advocating for emancipation.' Of course, it's good to try to free as many of your own 'carbon slaves' as you can, but that alone is not going to end the 'peculiar institution' we find ourselves inevitably participating in.
But yes, by all means, join me and others in not flying or taking any (motorized) long-distance trips unless it is absolutely necessary (and how often is that). Minimize or eliminate meat and dairy and car trips. Consume little and consume local. Encourage others to do the same, individuals and institutions.
But also demand changes in legislation and demand divestment from ff...
We have to be able to "chew gum and whistle at the same time." The merchants of death are certainly multi-tasking and are very well organized in their very successful campaign to make the planet essentially unlivable for our kids and for most other species.
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chriskoz at 21:26 PM on 5 May 2014What’s your carbon footprint and where does it come from?
wideEyedPupil@13,
Wehre did you source your assertion that "55% of Australian emissions come from Land Use Sector"? My data below from www.environment.gov.au:
Table 1: Australia’s Direct Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Economic Sector 2011-12(a)
Sector Emissions (Mt CO2-e) Share of total emissions (%)Primary Industries 172.2 31.0
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 106.2 19.2
Mining 66.0 11.9
Manufacturing 66.3 11.9
Electricity, Gas and Water 199.2 35.9
Services, Construction and Transport 62.1 11.2
Residential 54.9 9.9Contradicts your assertion. Total Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing (commonly known as "Land Use sector") emissions are only 19.2%.
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Michael Whittemore at 15:32 PM on 5 May 20142014 SkS Weekly Digest #18
Trevor, I don't think a person needs to have zero emissions before they have the right to support the science and ask the government to do something about it. If everyone asked the power companies to supply them with green electricity (like i do) it would be a start, but that does not mean factors and businesses will do the same. Big and small business needs to be taxed to give them an incentive to reduce their carbon foot print. This is the same for everyday people, you reduce your carbon foot print because you care, but that is not good enough, skeptics need to be forced to care with a tax. If skeptics have a problem with the science they can do their own science or reference science that proves their point, until then a tax needs to be introduced.
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John Hartz at 14:09 PM on 5 May 2014Food Security: the first big hit from Climate Change will be to our pockets
@John Mason:
It's time for you to write a sequel to your excellent OP.
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John Hartz at 14:07 PM on 5 May 2014Food Security: the first big hit from Climate Change will be to our pockets
Here are a couple of "hot off the press" on-topic articles.
Wake Up and Smell the Soaring Cost of Coffee by Kieran Cooke, Climate News Network, Climate Central, May 4, 2014
Drought Causes Chipotle To Increase Its Steak Prices by Katie Valentine, Climate Progress, Apr 29, 2014
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michael sweet at 11:46 AM on 5 May 2014Food Security: the first big hit from Climate Change will be to our pockets
Klapper,
If you wish to continue your discussion of crop yields they would be on topic on this thread. I read the reference you cited in your deleted post. If the best that you can find in the peer reviewed literature is a paper from Bulgaria written in 2000 I suggest that you are way out of date. (Although Bulgaria might be far enough north to benefit from the warming so far). The citations that I quoted from the IPCC report are up to date and claim world wide decrease in yield of wheat and maize (corn). I am also unimpressed with your claims that you eyeballed the data and found a different result. Can you find more recent citations that support your claims?
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Trevor_S at 10:44 AM on 5 May 20142014 SkS Weekly Digest #18
"People who campaign against slavery don't own slaves. People who campaign against smoking don't smoke. People who campaign against violence against women do not commit violence against women. And so it goes for almost all causes - except for climate change. Then, somehow, it becomes not only acceptable but almost obligatory for people who campaign against fossil fuels to burn more than their fair share of them."
"You have people who support a cause in the abstract, general sense, while acting against the cause in their personal life. The typical rationalisation is to view one's personal contribution to a problem as being an insignificant part of the whole problem. But this ignores the fact that the problem results from vast numbers of people making similarly insignificant contributions. It will be just as hard for any of them to stop and they can all make the same excuse that their bit doesn't matter"
-The Guardian Comments section
We have to stop emitting first. My parter and I are working hard to get our emisisons as close to zero as we can. How can we convince others to recue thier emisisons if we won't ?
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Tom Curtis at 09:32 AM on 5 May 20142014 SkS Weekly Digest #18
I am very much looking forward to the skewering George "people have a right to be bigots" Brandis by Ellerton. His recent comments complaining about the infringement of the right to free speech of climate change deniers (who from 2% of the scientific literature receive 50% of the press coverage, and nearly 100% of the commentary in The Australian) is patently absurd, and yet more evidence that Australia has a government of climate change deniers - determined to place posterity in hock for the short term benefit of investors.
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Tom Curtis at 09:21 AM on 5 May 2014The Australian quantum theory of climate denial
Klapper @15, it is worthwhile noting that of the 32 posts deleted, eight were by me, four each by Michael Sweet and KR, three by chriskoz, and one each by Roger D, Mal Adapted and GrindupBaker; making a total of twenty two (68.75%) by those accepting the science of climate change. The deletions, therefore, have been far harsher on those supporters than on anyone else. You (four posts) and Poster (four posts) are of course welcome to reraise the issues being discussed on other more appropriate threads. Therefore, while inconvenient, these deletions are not censorship. Jetfuel (2 posts), however, should probably not bother given that his post was both original and then respammed, was pure sloganeering.
Frankly, I would think Poster would be very happy to have what must have been very embarassing posts for him deleted from the record so that this moderation decision has done the "skeptics" a favour.
The moral from this is stray from the comments policy (by being off topic) at your own peril.
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Klapper at 08:39 AM on 5 May 2014The Australian quantum theory of climate denial
@moderator:
This thread dropped from 46 comments to 14. I'm wondering if you are having technical difficulties?
Moderator Response:[DB] Comments not pertaining to the subject of the OP of this thread were removed.
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Mal Adapted at 04:16 AM on 5 May 2014The Quantum Theory of Climate Denial
Warren Hindmarsh may not know what a tone troll is, but I suspect MartinG does. They both appear to think that the scientific "debate" about AGW will be won with smooth talk. While it may shock laypeople, actual working scientists often dispense with urbanity among their peers. They can be unsparing when criticizing arguments that aren't well thought out or well supported by evidence. That's the role of "peer review", broadly defined. It's the process by which incorrect ideas and spurious facts are kept out of the accumulating body of scientific knowledge.
Despite what MartinG reads on WUWT, within the peer community of climate scientists, the debate over whether AGW is happening, what the causes are, and what the consequences are likely to be, was over by the early 1990s. The discussion may have gotten downright vituperative at times, but rigorously gathered evidence and careful analysis have led to an overwhelming consensus among scientists if not the lay public. For genuine skeptics who are just starting to pay attention, the consensus is concisely laid out in Climate Change: Evidence and Causes, a 36-page booklet published jointly by the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and the Royal Society of the U.K., free to download at the link.
With the debate over among scientists, policy responses to AGW are now in the hands of politicians. A seasoned politician knows (in the privacy of her own thoughts, at least) that a polite liar is still lying, and that some sources of information are more trustworthy than others. We should be reassured that the U.S. Congress can consult the NAS, formed in 1865 expressly to advise the nation on scientific matters, because if the NAS isn't trustworthy, no-one is. And when representatives of the NAS speak in their official capacity, they at least are careful to be polite.
Nevertheless, 163 members of the 113th Congress have made statements explicitly denying either that AGW is happening, or that humans are responsible. The reasons for that have everything to do with the money invested by fossil-fuel interests in lobbying and public relations. Complaints that scientists respond impolitely to persistent AGW-denial memes are just a distraction from the man behind the curtain.
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michael sweet at 02:59 AM on 5 May 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #18B
Jetfuel,
Here is a better thread for you to post on. It is on the topic of sea level rise. Current projections are around 0.5-1 meter by 2100. This is a combination of ice melt and thermal expansion. Ice melt on Greenland has accelerated substantially since 2008. It is currently estimated at 0.5 mm/yr and accelerating.
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Timothy Chase at 01:34 AM on 5 May 2014Global warming stopped in
1998,1995,2002,2007,2010, ????
Kevin Cowan's video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u_0JZRIHFtk
... is private. However, it gets used on at least the two following pages:
http://skepticalscience.com/16_more_years_of_global_warming.html
http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-cooling-january-2007-to-january-2008.htmYou can see the image that indicates what the video is about, but when you press play the message "This video is private" appears against a dark snowy background.
Please feel free to delete my comment once this issue is fixed.
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jetfuel at 00:21 AM on 5 May 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #18B
"2003 and 2008, reports an average trend of 195 cubic kilometers (47 cu mi) per year.[8] These measurements came from the US space agency's GRACE" Wikipedia. They go on to say that most of the melt is at coastal glaciers. Again, .6% of Greenland's total ice in the next 86 years at 48 cu mile per year. The Great lakes added about 10 cubic miles of water level increase this past year. Right now, all that Great Lakes water is still 35% ice covered.
Moderator Response:[JH] Please provide the sources of the data you have cited.
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Mich at 23:36 PM on 4 May 2014The Australian quantum theory of climate denial
Hi John,
I wrote about the EEG (green energy law) of Germany and the related problems.
Today in an ecologic TV-show (Planet E) they discuss about the problems with wind energy destroying important eco-systems (woods).
Here is the link:
http://planete.zdf.de/planet-e/planet-e.-6019322.html
I hope it's ok to post links here.
I guess that 99% of the german and european population want green energy. But we need to think before we act. We had the problems with bio-fuel and now with wind energy. Probably german nukes will not be shut down as planned. But we all hope to find a better way.
Nothing is just black or white. We don't have the same political bias as in the US. But above all in Germany there live very agressive "eco-fighters". When 99% of the population want a cleaner world, fighting is not the solution imho.
Best regards
Mich (and sorry for the extra spaces)
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Marcin Popkiewicz at 23:31 PM on 4 May 2014What’s your carbon footprint and where does it come from?
Thank you for comments!
I've fixed the download links.
We are (unfortunately slowly, due to the lack of funds and parallel work on other projects) working on a new version of the calculator, with improved interface (including adaptation to various high and low resolutions), updated data, improved algorithms, more options, calculation of energy and fuels consumption and more. If you have any suggestions, remarks etc. please contact me: marcin.popkiewicz@ziemianarozdrozu.pl
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jetfuel at 23:31 PM on 4 May 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #18B
What is the ice sheet that is melting that is causing sea level rise? It takes 2285 cubic miles of melt (over and above the replenish rate due to snow, lake level rise, lake freeze, and river freeze) for the sea level to rise one inch. Even at 150 cu miles per year that a SS video says is happening recently, that is 15.23 years without any replenishment. Being realistic, counting 2014 as a net gain in ice, etc, that is maybe only an inch in the rest of my lifetime. So there you have it. "Apex of carbon dioxide"
Moderator Response:[JH] Please provide the sources of the data you have cited. Also, please use the acronym "SkS" for Skeptical Science. Finally, please read and adhere to the SkS Comments Policy when composing future posts.
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Glenn Tamblyn at 15:59 PM on 4 May 2014Past and Future CO2
What is also striking in Fig 1 is just how wide the confidence intervals aren't!
That CO2 Weathering thermostat surely is a really useful thing to have around. Real neat if you like having a planet with life on it.
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grindupBaker at 12:50 PM on 4 May 2014The Australian quantum theory of climate denial
mancan18 #4 synthetic oil can be manufactured from coal at a ratio of 1:3.
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grindupBaker at 12:04 PM on 4 May 2014What’s your carbon footprint and where does it come from?
We had a 6'4" 250# road cyclist in the Toronto group and he says he bought Carnac carbon road shoes so he has a huge carbon footprint. I'm at 20.06t on this so I'm average yet again. It don't quite understand my methods but I like its suggestion I get somebody else to shower with me (if I'm understanding that right).
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mbryson at 11:31 AM on 4 May 2014The Australian quantum theory of climate denial
Just to return to the main topic, the phenomenon of polarization provides a nice extension of the metaphor of "quantum denial". Consider a beam of randomly polarized light striking filter 1, which passes only horizontally polarized light. If we then apply to the light that passes filter 1) a filter (2) that passes only vertically polarized light, no light at all will pass through. But if we then add a filter between 1 and 2 that passes light polarized at 45 degrees, some light actually passes through all three. Something like this seems to happen with deniers as well-- having entered the "it's not happening" state, they are often reluctant to shift to the "it's the sun" state immediately. But if we add an intermediary state (perhaps "CO2 absorption is saturated"), then "it's the sun" becomes comfortably available as a subsequent state. So contradicting yourself is fine, so long as there at least one intermediate statement occurs that isn't directly contradictory to either the starting statement or the final statement.
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michael sweet at 09:17 AM on 4 May 2014Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
Typo: my previous post should say "warm the lower atmosphere and cool the stratosphere"
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michael sweet at 09:15 AM on 4 May 2014Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
Old Engineer,
One of the basic predictions of Climate Theory is that CO2 will warm the lower atmosphere and warm the stratosphere. The measurement of this effect is one of the long term successes of Climate Science. Your reference describes the absorption of a small amount of energy from a solar flare in the stratosphere that is then radiated back into space as was long ago predicted by Climate Theory.
Your source states at the end "Some diehard climate alarmists will still say that in the lower atmosphere the action of carbon dioxide is reversed", acknowledging that this is the accepted effect.
If you read the "start here" button at the top of the page it will explain this and many other basics to you.
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Old engineer at 08:28 AM on 4 May 2014Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
http://www.principia-scientific.org/Current-News/new-discovery-nasa-study-proves-carbon-dioxide-cools-atmosphere.html
how does this square with what you have here?
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Mich at 04:03 AM on 4 May 2014The Australian quantum theory of climate denial
Hi John,
Do you know the problems we have in Germany with "Erneuerbare Energien"(green energy)?
Electricity costs for consumers are rising. industrial companies that use a lot of electricity are being given more and more tax breaks.
Some people can no longer pay the price for electricity. Those problem are real in Germany.
Best regartds,
Mich
Moderator Response:[JH] Excessive white space deleted.
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geoffrey brooks at 03:57 AM on 4 May 2014What’s your carbon footprint and where does it come from?
One thing that is clear from a "self-evaluation", is the realization that US residents are doing more than their share to "burn up the world". At 24 average tons per US resident, one has to believe that a reduction of 10% can most easily be achieved by reducing the no. of Americans from 320 million to 290 million!
The key to achieving carbon reduction is population control, reducing the number of humans on this over-crowded planet.
Two major religions are against birth control, abortions, prefering to enhance the number of adherents within their flocks. American aid cant be used for disseminating birth control advice, devices and pills in the poorer parts of our planet.
Stabilizing the number and ultimately reducing humans on the planet is a necessity if we are to survive...
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citizenschallenge at 03:04 AM on 4 May 2014The Australian quantum theory of climate denial
Another indefensible tactic of climate science denialists is using the label "CAGW" as some sort of bludgeon for ridiculing serious experts. I've put together a collection of the growing weather related catastrophies that are linked to an energized global climate system that I hope you don't mind me sharing.
Saturday, May 3, 2014Judith Curry's cynical game: "CAGW Memeplex"
http://whatsupwiththatwatts.blogspot.com/2014/05/currys-cynical-cagw-memeplex.html
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MThompson at 00:04 AM on 4 May 2014The Australian quantum theory of climate denial
Oh, I get it. There are quantum states of denial, just as there are quantum states of gaseous CO2 vibration modes. Like a collection of CO2 molecules, with increasing pressure and temperature, these states can broaden into bands of denial. Even a single CO2 molecule can hold multiple vibration modes. In fact it must hold all of the possible modes … until the instant of observation!
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chriskoz at 22:07 PM on 3 May 20142014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #18A
Recently released TED talk by Gavin Schmidt. You likely know what Gavin talks about there (cliiamte model skills). But worth watching just for the beautiful global animations supporting Gavin's points. Brilliant presentation!
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Martin Lack at 19:47 PM on 3 May 2014The Australian quantum theory of climate denial
#5 @chriskoz: I am glad you understood #1. However, even if people could have guessed what I meant to say, my second sentence is grammatically incomplete without the missing words. (But, hey, what does language and grammar matter?)
#7 @One Planet Only Forever: Thanks for clearing that up (I for one was very confused).
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Dave123 at 16:05 PM on 3 May 2014The Quantum Theory of Climate Denial
Warren- now why should anyone presume you've made a competenet interpretation of Curry or much of anything else. You don't respond to Glen's points. Do you somehow think you're setting an example of debating evidence....or that amateurs can't recognize when they're in over their heads?
Warren, you start in this frame with zero or negative personal credibility. Glen on the other hand is well established as a competent and accurate reader of the scientific literature. When you ignore his responses, repeat assertions you have no personal credibility to debate you're simply demonstrating to this audience and anyone else wandering by that your notion of debate is basically the drunken ravings at a frat kegger.
And Warren....it's also not really a debate when you're are so obviously enslaved by whatever you think Curry says, and demonstrate no independent critical thinking of your own, "why isn't curry right" isn't a debate,, although it could be part of one.
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One Planet Only Forever at 15:40 PM on 3 May 2014The Australian quantum theory of climate denial
Doug @6,
I believe your comment is regarding MartinG's comment @38 on the earlier Quantum Theory story. And in that comment string, the part you quoted has been appropriately snipped by the moderator.
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DavidSSS at 14:57 PM on 3 May 2014What’s your carbon footprint and where does it come from?
What got me was the impact of international air travel. Without that my emissions are very low. We have solar panels, no dishwasher, no dryer, no air conditioning and I ride a bike to work. But one international trip a year (I would average a bit less but I thought that was reasonable) from Melbourne which means a lot of hours in the air, means I'm getting towards the US average. It makes me wonder about what we need to do to reduce carbon emissions and how we should concentrate more on transport than electricity generation, especially international air transport.
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Glenn Tamblyn at 14:53 PM on 3 May 2014Past and Future CO2
Thanks chriskoz
I had thought of the increased weathering due to the formation of thr Himalayas but had not twigged to the increased outgassing due to subduction. That makes a lot of sense.
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Glenn Tamblyn at 14:48 PM on 3 May 2014The Quantum Theory of Climate Denial
Warren
Reread my comment @22.
They didn't adjust one decade. The adjusted the entire record based on the impact of the ENSO system. Not just for La Nina's or just for El Nino's. The effect of this was a significant change in the later decade because that decade has been more strongly affected by La Nina's.
Judith Curry hasn't made a point. Judith Curry has presented some misrepresentation. Question is, when I have already pointed this out, why do not see that and change your view? Why persist in trying to argue using something that is an obvious piece of distortion?
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Warren Hindmarsh at 14:12 PM on 3 May 2014The Quantum Theory of Climate Denial
chriskoz @31
The grammar I admit is a little obtuse but I think these quotes from
" The rate of sea-level rise" Anny Cazenave et al
"when corrected for an abundance of La Ninas, sea level rise from 2003-2011 is ‘adjusted’ to 3.3 mm/yr"
More than likely is referring to Adusting (for) the 2003-11 period's results than the earlier period however, that aside, the adjusted figures smoothed out the earlier decades's higher rate increase as well as increasing the later decade's lower inreases.
Judith's point is; if you adust the rate of the slow down for the past decade then why wasn't it done during the increases of the earlier decade? saving everyone a lot of angst.
(-snip-)
Moderator Response:[DB] Sloganeering snipped.
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Doug Bostrom at 14:00 PM on 3 May 2014The Australian quantum theory of climate denial
Martin:
Get real - and join the scientific debate, which will never be a yes or no, but a series of scenarios probabilities and uncertainties which I personally believe 80% of the public would agree with if they were portrayed in a logical and balanced manner using all the evidence.
In other words, the IPCC process and reports.
I'll take Martin's words as an endorsement of the IPCC. To do otherwise would be disrespectful.
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Dave123 at 13:47 PM on 3 May 2014The Quantum Theory of Climate Denial
One more point for Martin and Warren- the real debate is carried out in the peer-reviewed scientific literature, not in blogs pages. Who is right about the jet stream- Frances or Trenberth? I don't know, but that's a real debate amoung people of high competence.
Your "debate"in the blogs of self-appointed amateurs- dens of incompetence and malice, it isn't really debate....it's propaganda in its own malign right.... your inability to tell the difference suggests mountains about you.
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chriskoz at 13:10 PM on 3 May 2014The Australian quantum theory of climate denial
Martin Lack@2,
No need for correction, @1 is understandable without.
Thanks for the NYT archive. It's 16yold now but sadly, reads like it was published yesterday (just replace Clinton with Obama which is realy not much or a replacement), so US made absolute zero progress on AGW mitigation during that time. Especially the sentence:
A proposed media-relations budget of $600,000, [...], using as many as 20 ''respected climate scientists'' recruited expressly ''to inject credible science and scientific accountability into the global climate debate, thereby raising questions about and undercutting the 'prevailing scientific wisdom.' ''
is a stark reminder, that so called "climate skepticism" has ideological roots and has nothing to do with science.
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mancan18 at 12:39 PM on 3 May 2014The Australian quantum theory of climate denial
The article rightly points out that the climate denier/sceptic’s arguments in the media are not consistent. It also points out that their arguments are more ideological (and political) than scientific. When the arguments (ideological v. scientific) are compared side by side then it is much easier for someone who is just seeking information to believe the ideological (and conspiratorial and sensationalist) argument than the scientific argument. This is because understanding the scientific argument requires a certain level of scientific knowledge that they may not possess and they need to be sympathetic to the process of scientific reasoning. It is because of this that some sceptics/deniers tend to portray the "we have a problem" argument as something akin to a religion. As a result they dogmatically state that they don't believe in anthropogenic global warming. However, someone who advocates the "we have a problem" argument tends to do so from an actual scientific understanding of the issue, which is not in any way religious. So the debate is also between faith based ideology and reasoned and verifiable science.
As for expecting any positive action on climate change, don’t hold your breath. Historically, it has taken around 10 years to a generation for some new technological paradigm to infiltrate society. It took that long for cars, aeroplanes, jets and computer technology to become more widespread as prices reduced because the better off had something new to play with or could make some money. Unfortunately, action on climate change is not something trendy that the well off seem to want to embrace. It is just too easy to dig up and burn fossil fuels, and since it can also make a lot money, don’t expect anything to happen real soon. This is a bit worrying considering the simple math of dividing the known recoverable reserves of oil globally divided by the current global consumption rate (with all the CO2 that this implies) yields a figure of about 50 years. This simple fact alone questions the long term viability of operating aircraft and cars amongst other things. This means that a huge social change is coming and it will happen within the lifetime of our children even if the world doesn’t act on AGW and climate change by investing in newer less polluting technologies to reduce emissions.
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Dave123 at 12:20 PM on 3 May 2014The Quantum Theory of Climate Denial
Martin- As some privileged SkS members are aware, I've written professionally on the topic of backgrounds of groupmembers contributing to problem solving, an area of expertise added late in life. While mixtures of people with stong skills in their respective technical areas have been shown to be strongly associated with success (that is SkSs team) confederacies of dunces ala WUWT are not successful. The B school literature is pretty clear on this.
Yet another piece of "evidence" about why you and they have nothing at all to contribute to the world.
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chriskoz at 11:55 AM on 3 May 2014The Quantum Theory of Climate Denial
Martin@37,
Get real - and join the scientific debate, which will never be a yes or no, but a series of scenarios probabilities and uncertainties which I personally believe 80% of the public would agree with if they were portrayed in a logical and balanced manner using all the evidence. Then we might get some progress.
(my emphasis)
Emphasised part is your wishful thinking - contradiction of how the scientific understaning progresses over time, according to the inferential statistics. Said statistcs teach us that once the uncertainty of any theory falls below certain threshold (p-value, commonly 5%), the theory is confirmed as fact and move on. Further "debate" will not increase our understanding of the world but only create confusion. In fact too much debate can derail said understanding by introducing the additional uncertainty of skewed results from experiments setup incorrectly or biased interpretation by the contrarians.
In case of climate science here, when 97% of experts agree on the AGW and IPCC concluded AGW to be "unequivocal" (which translates to the 5% p-value above) there is no debate anymore, and any wishful thinkers like yourself who would like the "debate" to continue indefinitely, are not trying to improve our understanding of science but trying to confuse it. Such attitude will not create any "progress".
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