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Comments 37551 to 37600:

37551. chriskoz at 12:12 PM on 25 March 2014
       2014 SkS Weekly Digest #12
       

       A good article about recent landslide event near Arlington WA, (over SR530 - the road I used to travel very often) can be arguably linked to AGW. That's the dry winter followed by very wet early spring: 7.14 inches of rain has fallen this month, well above the normal of 4.57 inches, undoutedly contributed to the hill instability.

37552. Tom Dayton at 10:29 AM on 25 March 2014
       Hansen's 1988 prediction was wrong
       

       Tamino has updated Hansen's 1988 prediction by swapping in actual values of forcings (except volcanic) more recently than was done by RealClimate seven years ago.  The forcings are closest to Hansen's Scenario C forcings.  So actual temperatures should have been closest to Hanson's Scenario C model projection.  Guess what?

37553. Tom Dayton at 10:06 AM on 25 March 2014
       Scientists can't even predict weather
       

       Steve Easterbrook has a great balloon analogy of weather versus climate.

37554. Michael Whittemore at 09:59 AM on 25 March 2014
       Climate Science Legal Defense Fund Needs Your Help!
       

       Any idea if it would be tax deductible here in Australia?

37555. lucia at 09:40 AM on 25 March 2014
       A Hack By Any Other Name — Part 7
       

       Having backend code that looks at each user input for specific pairs of SQL commands, such as 'select' and 'into'; 'delete' and 'from' etc will enable such input to be discarded. And when such input is detected, ..

        

       ZBblock (available free) does checks these things. If detected the connection is blocked.  If the user redoubles efforts that IP is blocked from all '.php' scripts protected by ZBblock for a period of time.  http://www.spambotsecurity.com/zbblock.php 

       I've used it since 2011, and include some custom scripts for extra security. (Sometimes my custom stuff goes overboard.  But SkS wouldn't be required to add my extra experimental blocks.)  Had SkS been using this in 2012, it would have blocked many of the queries above, particularly those including things like "union" and "select".

        

       ZBblock also has a 'block Tor' feature which can be activated by setting that feature "on", and in anycase, many Tor IPs get blocked even without checking that setting because they are on  large server farms that rend space to lots of hackers and scrapers.  Connections from certain serverfarms are almost never real people, blocking results in few false positives.  

       
       Whether or not SkS had chosen to use the "Tor" block, using ZBBlock would have at least slowed the hacker, it seems to me was likely  using a 'fingerprinting' type script. These things are widely available and using them a hacker need not expend much  "human" trying systematic variations of queries or keeping track of which resulted in useful information.  Anyway, it seems to me the order of operations seems very much like a script that arrived and started testing the first '....php?query=something' item visible in the the html, and seemed to visit the posts that appeared on the front page and so on.  That's pretty much what a script would do.

       Something like ZBblock might have derailed the script entirely-- by giving it miscues it couldn't interpret. It might have derailed the hacker who, though motivated to hack, may not have been interested in working very hard at it. Possibly, if his script worked while he was sipping Red Bull and playing online games: great! If not: no big deal. 

       That said: given  given the large number of security holes, maybe he would have succeeded but more slowly. Presumably you've closed most of these holes. I would still suggest using ZBblock. It's free. Easy to use. And gives a layer of protection.

        

       Moderator Response:

       [BL] No.  The attack was absolutely not scripted.  We see attacks such as those on a weekly basis, and their patterns are clear and indisputable.  The hacker's SQL injection, by contrast, inconsistently tried combinations first on one page or parameter, then another, then returned to the first page, then looked at other pages without trying anything, and so on.  He also didn't try every parameter or even every numeric parameter on every page, only some, and he didn't always stick to numeric parameters (he occasionally tried string parameters, but only randomly and occasionally).

       The bouncing around, the non-systematic use of parameter values, the variety of delays in activities, all point unequivocally to the active involvement of a living human being. 

       In addition, he was almost always using "GET" parameters (values which are appended to the URL itself, and so are visible to a person in the address bar without reading the HTML code of the web page).  99% of scripted attacks use post parameters (by scanning the HTML code for forms and input fields, usually login or search pages).  The use of GET parameters, while it can be (and is sometimes) scripted, is far more indicative of a person, who can click a link, look at the resulting URL, and then play with it (selectively and intelligently).

       Scripted attacks also tend to use easily detected (by a program) results.  The script can't easily look at a page to determine if the attack worked, so they include code like this:

       SELECT * FROM argument WHERE ArgumentId = '16 and 5=6 union select 0x5E5B7D7E -‌-'
       SELECT * FROM argument WHERE ArgumentId = '16' and 5=6 union select 0x5E5B7D7E -‌- And '6'='6'
       SELECT * FROM argument WHERE ArgumentId = '16 and 5=6 union select 0x5E5B7D7E,0x5E5B7D7E -‌-'
       SELECT * FROM argument WHERE ArgumentId = '16' and 5=6 union select 0x5E5B7D7E,0x5E5B7D7E -‌- And '6'='6'

       That is, of course, only one, brief and limited example.  That attack went on for dozens of tries, and then tried again with slightly different syntax, and again and again.  The 0x5E5B7D7E part displays ^[}~ if it succeeds.  That's a character sequence that is very, very unlikely to appear on any page, and hence is easily detected by a program.  If the program sees that show up in the page, the attack worked and a human gets involved.  If it doesn't, the script moves on to the next combination (although it will cycle through this many times, increasing the number of SELECT parameters to match the original query, similar to the way the hacker did on February 20, 2012).

       The attack on SkS was absolutely not scripted.  Whether you like it or not, whether or not it fits into your pre-determined desire to see this hack as a leak or at worst an easy endeavor (so that you can shift the blame to SkS for having lax security, instead of the hacker)... the guy spent almost nine hours one day conducting SQL injection attacks, and another six hours the next day trolling the system and grabbing data and code.  He then spent days and days continuing his hack.

       No matter how you cut it, it took a whole lot of time and energy for SkS to be hacked.  No matter how easy you want the hack to have been, it wasn't.

37556. wili at 08:54 AM on 25 March 2014
       Climate Science Legal Defense Fund Needs Your Help!
       

       As they say, "The check's in the mail!" (But it really will be, soon. '-) )

       Thanks for reminding us about this. But isn't there also (or doesn't there need to be) a Climate Science OFfence Fund? How was the suit against National Review funded, for example. We can't always just be playing defense here, folks.

       If someone knows of such a fund, please post the contact info for it.

37557. Tom Curtis at 08:09 AM on 25 March 2014
       Sea level rise predictions are exaggerated
       

       Gary Marsh @32, observations of the carbon budget show that plants represent a net sink of CO2, ie, that on average there is more plant matter on Earth at the end of each year than at the start.  That means that plants are an increasing reservoir of water rather than, as you would have it, a decreasing reservoir.  Absent other effects, the increase in net plant mass would tend to decrease sea level rise.

37558. John Hartz at 07:54 AM on 25 March 2014
       97% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
       

       Phronesis:

       To guide the What We Know initiative, AAAS convened a group of prominent experts in climate science.

       Mario Molina (Chair), U of California, San Diego and Scripps Institution of Oceanography

       James McCarthy (Co-chair), Harvard University

       Diana Wall (Co-chair), Colorado State University

       Richard Alley, Pennsylvania State University

       Kim Cobb, Georgia Institute of Technology

       Julia Cole, University of Arizona

       Sarah Das, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution

       Noah Diffenbaugh, Stanford University

       Kerry Emanuel, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

       Howard Frumkin, University of Washington

       Katharine Hayhoe, Texas Tech University

       Camille Parmesan, U of Texas, Austin and University of Plymouth, UK

       Marshall Shepherd, U of Georgia

37559. Ken in Oz at 07:44 AM on 25 March 2014
       2014 SkS Weekly Digest #12
       

       It may just be coincidence, but a lot of media like to use the 'hottest', 'coldest', 'wettest', 'driest' line with monotonous regularity. But they are not usually talking about actual records being broken; they are 'hottest' or 'coldest' in 50 yrs or 20 yrs or however long it was since the last time it was that 'hot' or 'cold'. Could be interesting to see if this is more commonplace within media outlets that play up the denial and doubt although for a lot of media content it is just poor quality. Ultimately it diminishes the perceptions people have of real records being broken. Whilst the science on climate depends on accurate information, action on climate depends on public perceptions and this misuse of these superlatives muddies public perceptions in a subtle but influential way.

37560. dfaccini at 07:25 AM on 25 March 2014
       Free computer game - World at the Crossroads
       

       I was starting to go crazy because, on my Windows 7, I wasn't able to change the read only setting.

       I tried everything, eventually I changed the UAC settings (START-RUN-"UAC", and you can put the setting on the lower level) and I succeeded.

       See here: 

       http://itexpertvoice.com/home/fixing-the-windows-7-read-only-folder-blues/

37561. Sapient Fridge at 06:21 AM on 25 March 2014
       A Hack By Any Other Name — Index
       

       Looks good.  Thanks for putting the index together.  I'll circulate the link to my techie friends who wouldn't normally visit SkS.

37562. PhilBMorris at 01:36 AM on 25 March 2014
       A Hack By Any Other Name — Part 7
       

       This comment may be somewhat 'late in the day' but of value anyway (I think).  SQL injection is the one of the real dangers of interactive websites, and protecting against it adequiately requires multiple levels of defence.

       1. All user input needs to be checked to detect possible injections.  Having backend code that looks at each user input for specific pairs of SQL commands, such as 'select' and 'into'; 'delete' and 'from' etc will enable such input to be discarded.  And when such input is detected, take the user to the home page; better this than displaying a page telling the hacker that their attempt has been foiled, which may cause them to redouble their efforts.  The code that checks for specific pairs of SQL commands should also check for possible scripting syntax.

       2. All interactions with the SQL database should be via parameterised queries.  I noticed one comment regarding hack 3 (SQL Injection) that all interactions with the database should used stored procedures.  That doesn't do the job; stored procedures may use parameterized queries, but can equally well construct SQL statements that use user input directly.  Bad practice but still possible.  Injection attacks are foiled completely via parameterized queries.  Re-writing backend code to do this can take quite an effort if the code base is large.  For .NET websites (which is what I code in) I wrote a program that autogenerates code for all DB interactions based on the DB schema; that code only ever uses parameterized queries to interact with the database.

       3.  The SQL database should be on a subnet entirely separate from the website subnet and access to the database subnet vie the internet should be prevented by the firewall.  Access to the database computers should only be allowed via computers behind the firewall.  

37563. michael sweet at 00:28 AM on 25 March 2014
       97% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
       

       Phronesis,

       It is interesting to learn that you know more about scientific opinion on AGW than the American Association for the Advancement of Science.  I am sure other readers will make their own choice about whether they should believe the AAAS or a nameless voice on the internet.  

       This is a scientific board.  People are expected to provide evidence to support their claims.  Peer-reviewed evidence is best.  You do not appear to care about evidence.   You might find that your method of argument is better received at one of the skeptic sites where they do not care about evidence either.

37564. michael sweet at 00:23 AM on 25 March 2014
       2014 SkS Weekly Digest #12
       

       Dave,

       When I went to the NCDC website I found that California was only 0.8F (!) higher than the previous warmest winter.  Since these records are usually broken by 0.1 degree, that is a significant record.

       I have only seen one mention of the record heat in California in the mainstream media.  The cold, which was typical weather 50 years ago, is widely reported as record cold, even though no records were set.  This is the problem we face with global warming: the media only reports what fossil fuel companies want people to hear.

37565. John Hartz at 23:56 PM on 24 March 2014
       2014 SkS Weekly Digest #12
       

       icefest & Tom Curtis:

       The errors you pointed out have been corrected. Thank you for bringing them to our attetnion.

37566. Gary Marsh at 23:17 PM on 24 March 2014
       Sea level rise predictions are exaggerated
       

       Based on my estimation above (see 29.) 130 cubic kilometres of water directly lost each year to deforestation, spread over the world ocean surface of aproximatly 361 million square kilometres would equate to aproximately a 0.3mm rise per year, this allows for a percentage that would end up in rivers, reservoirs the atmosphere and the ground. I'm not a scientist or a skilled resercher so my quantities and sums must be checked, this is a significant figure so surely it is being accounted for somewhere and I'm just not finding it?

       Moderator Response:

       (Rob P) - No, the scenario you conjured up isn't accounted for. Not sure why this would surprise you given that you seem unwilling to read the scientific literature on sea level rise and provide zero supporting evidence for your scenario.  

37567. Gary Marsh at 20:57 PM on 24 March 2014
       Sea level rise predictions are exaggerated
       

       BTW I can't see a facility to edit our posts, my last one double entried when my web browser had to "recover the webpage"...    sorry!

       Moderator Response:

       [JH] Your duplicate post has been deleted.

37568. Gary Marsh at 20:56 PM on 24 March 2014
       Sea level rise predictions are exaggerated
       

       In case my last direct tinyurl link breaks, you can use this one but National Geographic will want you to sign in with email or facebook to read the article. http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2012/05/120531-groundwater-depletion-may-accelerate-sea-level-rise/?

       To sumarise a snip from the article referring to the work of a team of Dutch scientists led by hydrologist Yoshihide Wada 

       "Newly constructed reservoirs above ground can offset the net loss of water underground. These, Wada said, trap water that would otherwise reach the sea. Before 1990 or so, he added, that offset was large enough that the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change never took groundwater depletion into account in predicting 21st-century sea-level rise. But that offset is no longer as significant as it once was, Wada said. "There are not so many places where people can build new reservoirs," he said. "They are already built."

       Already, he and his colleagues have found, groundwater depletion is adding about 0.6 millimeters per year (about one-fortieth of an inch) to the Earth's sea level. By 2050, he said, the triple pressures of growing population, economic development, and higher irrigation needs due to a warming climate will increase that to 0.82millimeters per year—enough to raise sea levels by 40 millimeters (1.6 inches) above 1990 levels. Between 2050 and 2100, according to some estimates, sea levels would rise even faster. To put that in perspective, he said, groundwater depletion adds about 25 percent to projected rates of sea-level rise, making it the largest contributor from land to sea-level rise other than the melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Even the melting of glaciers in the world's high mountains won't contribute more to rising sea levels, Wada said."

37569. Gary Marsh at 20:44 PM on 24 March 2014
       Sea level rise predictions are exaggerated
       

       Glenn Tamblyn

       You are correct, I mistakenly thought the resevoir and surface water effect was taken into account in this study. The following article from the National Geographic News updates the information somewhat, whilst raising further points for consideration :)  http://tinyurl.com/NatGeo-Groundwater   It also mentions the forest effect, though having not found figures for this I am going to estimate an average of 1cubic metre height of water lost per square metre of forest/rainforest loss, to take into account water held in ground, biomass, roots, animals, above surface trees plants and atmospheric humidity, this would equal one cubic kilometre of water every 1000 kilometres of forest lost, times this by 130 000 square kilimetres lost per year = 130 cubic kilometres of extra water per year that ends up largely in the sea. I would apreciate informed comments as to how far off my estimations are and as to if there is any significance to this quantily of yeatly increase affecting sea level rise...   Mind you that last part I should be able to find out myself.. it's the per square kilometre water storage capacity of forest and attendents that are hard for me to assess.

37570. Andy Skuce at 19:02 PM on 24 March 2014
       97% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
       

       Anyone who thinks that the consensus is significantly less than 97% can demonstrate this relatively easily. All they have to do is to find, let's say,  5-10% or more papers in a given random sample that implicitly or explicitly reject humans as the main cause of  global warming. They don't have to do a fine sub-classification like we did, or sort the no-position papers from the rest, just find the thumbs-down papers. (Hint, some doubters of AGW already have some long--and dubious--lists of papers that supposedly reject AGW, so you could just search for them in any given sample.)

       A few hours of careful work requiring no special equipment and Cook et al could, in principle, be falsified. Several people who question our work seem to have put lots of effort into writing blogposts, examining our statistics, submitting formal rebuttals, making FOI requests and writing angry letters to all and sundry. Yet, if they were right, a convincing knock-out punch would  be easy to deliver, just by looking through a random sample of scientific papers on climate change. But this work has not even been tried, or if it has, it hasn't been reported.

37571. DAK4Blizzard at 16:04 PM on 24 March 2014
       2014 SkS Weekly Digest #12
       

       California, which has been in the news for its warm and dry winter, had an overall average temperature of 48F from December to February. According to NCDC, this was about 4.5F above average and the hottest winter by 2F since records began in 1895. NCDC

       What's very concerning is a winter like this could become more typical by late century even if our emissions are kept from passing 500 ppm. In a higher emissions scenario,
       in which CO2 concentration reaches 500 ppm by mid-century and reaches 800-900 ppm by late century, California can expect an average year to be at least 3F warmer than this one by late century. EPA  When the average temperature increases by that much, you can expect water to be a severe issue even in years with normal rainfall, as mountain snow-pack will retreat and evaporation will increase.
       
       In other words, even by late this century the southern Central Valley could approach the environment depicted in the cartoon.

37572. Tom Curtis at 16:01 PM on 24 March 2014
       2014 SkS Weekly Digest #12
       

       icefest @2, Brandon Seah is the person who asked a question of Randall Munroe, which Randall Munroe then answered in the post linked to above. 

37573. Glenn Tamblyn at 15:47 PM on 24 March 2014
       Sea level rise predictions are exaggerated
       

       Gary Marsh

       What the IGRAC page is missing is another change to the land water balance which is empoundment - the building of surface water storages. Some time back I read a study - I don't recall now where it was - that estimated the increase of surface water storage in dams etc. Serendipitously this roughly balances out the loss of groundwater.

        

37574. icefest at 14:28 PM on 24 March 2014
       2014 SkS Weekly Digest #12
       

       I think you meant 'xkcd' and not 'sckd'. If so, then you probably meant "Randall Munroe" instead of "Brandon Seah" (who is Brandon Seah anyway?).

37575. DSL at 13:18 PM on 24 March 2014
       97% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
       

       Sloganeering, DB?  More like Hubris ad Absurdum. 

37576. Rob Honeycutt at 11:13 AM on 24 March 2014
       97% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
       

       Phronesis...  My point is substantive if you care to entertain the idea. What I'm telling you is that you can cast stones all day long, never hitting a target and convince no one, including yourself, of anything.

       If you have genuine questions about what the reality is regarding the consensus of the published research, test the results yourself. Just be ready to adjust your position on this issue when you do.

       My guess is, much like everyone I've ever argued with who rejects AGW, you're not really interested in the reality of the situation. You're merely interested in testing your throwing arm. 

37577. Tom Curtis at 10:59 AM on 24 March 2014
       97% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
       

       Phronesis @5&11:

       With regard to Schollenberger's criticism of Cook et al, Victor Venema had this to say:

       "if you scan the manuscript, you find that much of what you “discovered” in the stolen forum posts was already written into the article manuscript:

       “Each abstract was categorized by two independent, anonymized raters. … Initially, 27% of category ratings and 33% of endorsement ratings disagreed. Raters were then allowed to compare and justify or update their rating through the web system, while maintaining anonymity. Following this, 11% of category ratings and 16% of endorsement ratings disagreed; these were then resolved by a third party.”

       It would have been fair, if you would have told your readers that this was written in the article."

       To that Schollenberger admited:

       "I never claimed to have “discovered” anything in the SKS forums. I didn’t claim anything I said was a secret or new. Quoting one source doesn’t indicate other sources were silent on those topics."

       So, right from the start much of Schollenberger's criticism consists of describing processes described in the paper, carefully not mentioning that fact, and then going "tut-tut".

       There is a small measure of validity in his criticism, however.  Some (5-10) abstracts were discussed in the forum, and should not have been in order to preserve independence.  To calculate the effect of this, I shall assume that 50 abstracts were discussed, and that all of those were rated as endorsing the consensus.  Both of these assumptions are known to be false.  However, they are conservative.  That is, they will massively overstate the impact of the breakdown in proceedure on the paper.

       To estimate that effect, I simply reduce the number of endorsing papers by 50.  The result is that the level of endorsement from abstract ratings falls from 97.1% to 97%.  That is, this breakdown in procedure at most overstated endorsements by 0.1%, and did not change the headline result.  It is very probable that the impact was negligible, because I have significantly overstated the number of papers involved, because not all papers involved were rated as endorsing the concensus, and because even of those endorsing the concensus, there is a high probability that the rating would not have changed to neutral, or not endorsing the consensus without the discussion.

       Further, this breakdown in proceedure cannot effect the author ratings which also show a 97% endorsement rate.

       Now, the question for you is - did you realize these facts before raising the issue?  If not, why did you raise it, given as you claim to be pressed for time? 

37578. wili at 10:14 AM on 24 March 2014
       2014 SkS Weekly Digest #12
       

       Mauna Loa--March 22 - 399.98ppm--So barely over a degree below 400, not enough to of set 6 days mostly well above that number. So the last week's official average is above 400 for the first time this year and only the second time in history (and for millions of years before history started, iirc): " Week beginning on March 16, 2014: 400.76 ppm "http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/weekly.html

       News worthy??

37579. MP3CE at 08:16 AM on 24 March 2014
       A Hack By Any Other Name — Part 7
       

       Realy KUDOS to you, guys !!! What a great job you do here!

37580. Phronesis at 06:44 AM on 24 March 2014
       97% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
       

       Guys, has anyone responded substantively to anything I said in my last round? I don't see anything.

       Tom Curtis offers an insight about my intentions, that it is a "gish gallop". I don't know what that means, but I assume it's not charitable.

       Michael Sweet cites the AAAS report. My earlier posts undercut one of the three sources used in that report, so I'm not sure why the report would be a counterargument. (Or why any of these reports should be interesting, given that they don't use standard scientific methods for aggregating knowledge, e.g. meta-analyses, at least not the AAAS.)

       Dunkerson says that I mentioned Oreskes' 75% figure and that I later mentioned how we have no idea what was done in that study (because the paper doesn't tell us). I take the argument to be that the number of problems I've discovered with Oreskes, or the order I in which I've presented them, somehow refutes me?

       Honeycutt regrets piling on another irrelevant, non-substantive reply, and talks about Cook. I had asked a question about whether the Cook et al study used independent rates, as stated in the paper. Honeycutt doesn't answer that question, but invites me to start rating abstracts.

       (-snip-).
       
       
       

       ( -snip-.)

       Moderator Response:

       [DB] Sloganeering snipped.

37581. Gary Marsh at 01:23 AM on 24 March 2014
       Sea level rise predictions are exaggerated
       

       Has anyone encountered informaiton showing how much water is pushed to other parts of the ecosystem whenever there is a loss of rainforest, or deforestation in general, whether to desertification or increased agricultural/farming practices etc.. i.e. 130000 to 150000 km loss per year is a lot of moisture pushed into other parts of the planets storage capability! without having done the research I would imagine the quantity over the past 60 years is enough to skew the data?

       I only today read about the relationship of human pumping of groundwater to increased sea level rise. http://www.un-igrac.org/publications/422    snippet "because most of the groundwater released from the aquifers ultimately ends up in the world's oceans, it is possible to calculate the contribution of groundwater depletion to sea level rise. This turned out to be 0.8 mm per year, which is a surprisingly large amount when compared to the current sea level rise of 3.3 mm per years as estimated by the IPCC. It thus turns out that almost half of the current sea level rise can be explained by expansion of warming sea water, just over one quarter by the melting of glaciers and ice caps and slightly less than one quarter by groundwater depletion. Previous studies have identified groundwater depletion as a possible contribution to sea level rise. However, due to the high uncertainty about the size of its contribution, groundwater depletion is not included in the latest IPCC report. This study confirms with higher certainty that groundwater depletion is indeed a significant factor"

       This got me wondering about the ground biomass canopy and animal life storage capacity of the vast forest losses each year.

       Moderator Response:

       (Rob P) - See the SKS rebuttal: Sea level fell in 2010. There is a large year-to-year , and decadal-scale, exchange of water mass between the continents and ocean mainly due to rainfall patterns forced by La Nina & El Nino. The strong La Nina dominance over the last decade or so has stored greater-than-normal water mass on land. See Jensen (2013) - Land water contribution to sea level from GRACE and Jason-1 measurements & Baur (2013) - Continental mass change from GRACE over 2002–2011 and its impact on sea level - free copies are available online.

       This is part of the reason for the smaller-than-anticipated sea level rise in recent times - since the early 2000's anomalous water mass, equivalent to 0.2mm of sea level rise per year, has been stored on land. This is consistent with the increase in land vegetation (Net Primary Productivity) during that time. See: Bastos (2013) - The global NPP dependence on ENSO: La Niña and the extraordinary year of 2011. 

       No surprise that water availability impacts plant growth. But a return to El Nino-dominant conditions (the positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation) hints at major problems in the near-future. Sea level should rise more sharply too as the water mass drains from the continents.   

37582. John Hartz at 01:12 AM on 24 March 2014
       2014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #12B
       

       chriskoz: Her's an article about the leaked draft report to be finalized this week in Yokahama, Japan.

       Global warming to hit Asia hardest, warns new report on climate change by Robin McKie, The Observer, Mar 22, 2014

       I will, of course, include this article and others like it in this week's edition of the Weekly News Roundup.

37583. Tom Curtis at 22:49 PM on 23 March 2014
       2014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #12B
       

       chriskoz @1, the ABC has a story on WG2's report.  I assume there was a press release or something to go with it, but no links unfortunately. 

37584. MA Rodger at 20:25 PM on 23 March 2014
       Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming
       

       The graph of North Atlantic cyclone numbers in the post could do with updating. The 10-year average has concinued to rise and now sits above 16 per year.

       

       N Atlantic hurricane numbers & major hurricane (catagory 3+) numbers have also risen but less dramatically and have presently their own little "hiatus." Add the argument about unreliable data prior to the 1970s, and it is difficult to establish with any certainty an AGW signal above the 'natural cycles'. The same goes for N Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy (see here - usually 2 clicks to 'download your attachment').

       Globally, beyond the N Atlantic,  the data is even less reliable prior to 1970 (as Klaus Flemløse @70 would likely agree). So that Atlantic tropical cyclone graph is a bit of a rare beast.

37585. chriskoz at 18:52 PM on 23 March 2014
       2014 SkS Weekly News Roundup #12B
       

       No news on the big event this week: the IPCC WGII meeting in Yokohama JP?

       According to the current schedule, the Core Writing Team are already there and should be approving their AR5 as soon as Tuesday.
       Is there any pre-release/summary available or do we need to wait until the official release at the end of week?

37586. Klaus Flemløse at 06:45 AM on 23 March 2014
       Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming
       

       My analysis of the number of tropical storms only covers the period 1970-2012. This is the weak point, as far as I do not have data going back further. Therefore, I do not know if the development is caused by natural variations or if it is a result of the global warming. However the development is in line with the expectation from the global warming.

37587. Sapient Fridge at 06:21 AM on 23 March 2014
       A Hack By Any Other Name — Part 7
       

       A very well told explanation!  Fascinating.

       Can someone create a single page with a summary and links to the whole story so it can be linked to and referenced easily, rather than linking to the 7 pieces as is required now?

       Moderator Response:

       [BL] I'll look at doing that. I have to make some simple programming changes, first, but when they're done I'll create it and add links to the separate parts to the "Table of Contents" that links to all 7 parts.

       [BL] Try this: A Hack By Any Other Name — Index.  I'll add links to it to all 7 posts, and fill out the timeline... eventually.  It's a bit of a chore, but I'll get there.

37588. Daniel Bailey at 01:03 AM on 23 March 2014
       Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming
       

       That is such a collossal disconnect in logic that words fail me...

37589. UncleBucket at 22:56 PM on 22 March 2014
       Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming
       

       A new denialist argument that I'm seeing more and more is that because the USA experienced fewer hurricanes in 2013 than in some previous years, global warming has stopped or is disproven!

37590. slcochran at 08:16 AM on 22 March 2014
       The Myth Debunking One-Pager
       

       Michael Whittemore is correct.  If you start with your opponent's frame, no matter how you want to precondition it, you reinforce it.  To avoid doing so, state your position, and then you can point out what an ass the other side is (or words to that effect).  A very good read on this phenomenon is George Lakoff's book, "Don't Think of an Elephant."

37591. adrian smits at 07:08 AM on 22 March 2014
       Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: J.S. Sawyer in 1972
       

       Actually the latest peer reviewed evidence out of Sweden December 2013 seems to indicate that the little ice age was far more wide spread than preveliously thought.

       Moderator Response:

       [TD] Please provide a real citation rather than just a country and a month.

37592. gws at 04:39 AM on 22 March 2014
       A Hack By Any Other Name — Part 7
       

       Bob, you did it! I "project" your series is going to become the most read SkS posts in a "long time" (sorry, read too much J. Curry stuff). You missed your profession as a science writer ... Hat tip!

37593. adrian smits at 04:08 AM on 22 March 2014
       Lessons from Past Climate Predictions: J.S. Sawyer in 1972
       

       According to J S Sawyer the warming He estimated was a natural rebound from the little ice age so what was so ground breaking about His work?

       Moderator Response:

       [TD] See the rebuttal to the myth "We're Coming Out of the Little Ice Age."  Just one of the flaws in that myth is that the Little Ice Age was not global.

37594. Rob Honeycutt at 02:43 AM on 22 March 2014
       97% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
       

       Phronesis... I don't want to pile on here but would just like to offer one suggestion.

       When a scientist gets his hackles up over some published finding, usually the response is to test the results him/herself. This is something you can easily do yourself. You don't need to review 12,000 papers. Honestly, Cook et al was way overkill in regards to what is statistically necessary to establish the point. 

       There are two easy ways to do this. Here on the SkS site, you can rate abstracts yourself! If for some reason you don't trust the system that SkS has set up, that's fine. Just go to google scholar and start pulling up papers. Set up your own spreadsheet to check the results.

       You can get a rational statistical sampling with a couple hundred papers. That might take a few hours to process. But then you know for yourself with data created by someone you trust. You!

37595. Composer99 at 02:23 AM on 22 March 2014
       There is no consensus
       

       I'm kind of curious if anyone can show that the mainstream medical science position on gastric ulcers prior to Warren & Marshall's work was anything like as well-supported by evidence or as well-endorsed by the practicing researchers of the time as the scientific consensus of global warming is today.

       The interview with Marshall that michael sweet linked to suggests such is not the case, which is likely another reason why the case of Helicobacter is a poor choice in attacking the scientific consensus on global warming.

       Another relevant passage from the interview:

       One of the things that happened with me is that I was interested in computers, even in 1980 with e-mail, but it was really teletypes in those days. Our library had just got a line to the National Library of Medicine. So I came in and started doing literature searches, because I was interested in computers and it was fun for me. But I started trying to track these bacteria. And I found various, very widespread, dispersed references to things in the stomach, which seemed to be related to the bacteria, going back nearly 100 years. So that we could then develop a hypothesis that these bacteria were causing some problem in the stomach, and maybe that was leading to ulcers. And then, instead of having to do 20 years of research checking out all those different angles, the research was done, but it was never connected up. And so, with the literature searching, as it became available, we were able to pick out the research that was already there and put together this coherent pattern, which linked bacteria and ulcers. It didn't happen overnight. We actually thought about it for two years before we were reasonably confident. It was really quite a few years before we were absolutely water-tight.

       (Parenthetically, Marshall goes on at some length about how he likely could have made more progress advancing the hypothesis if he himself had been more diplomatic.)

37596. Composer99 at 01:54 AM on 22 March 2014
       97% consensus on human-caused global warming has been disproven
       

       Phronesis:

       With respect to your desire for information regarding the severity of global warming impacts, etc. - read the IPCC Assessment Reports. That is their purpose.

37597. michael sweet at 01:50 AM on 22 March 2014
       There is no consensus
       

       Prosensus:

       Here is how Barry Marshall described his first presentation of his hypothesis about H. pilori in 1986:

       "Barry Marshall: Well, I was fairly confident at that stage, and I was sticking my neck out.

       I knew there'd be a lot of Americans there. And we were then challenging for the America's Cup. And so, in fact, I got up and I really threw down the gauntlet. My first slide was a photo of Perth in Western Australia, lovely river and sea, and a yacht. And I said, "This is Perth, Western Australia, and this is the yacht that's going to win the America's Cup in 19..." I think it was '86 or '87. And everybody, "Ahh!" You know, paper balls were being thrown at me. And then I went on to present the new bacteria. I wasn't totally alone though, because I had connected up with the head bacteriologist in England who was interested in that species or that type of bacteria. I'd visited with him for a couple of days before the conference and he had kind of given me a little more confidence than usual, and backed me up on it. As he introduced me, he said, "Well, this is Barry Marshall. He's got this wonderful, interesting new bacteria." So although people were skeptical, and they all went home with the aim of trying to prove me wrong, that's how science moves forward. Someone has a hypothesis and you say, "Okay, if I can prove it wrong, I can publish a paper saying he's wrong." Gradually, over the next few years, one by one, these people trying to prove me wrong fell by the wayside and actually converted over to my side, and became experts in their own right, in helicobacter." source

       Doesn't seem to me like "castigation and excoriation."  He received the Warren Alpert Prize in 1994, only 8 years later, from the Australian Medical Association.  Sounds more like the data was fairly checked and accepted, as you would expect for any new claim.  Can you provide a cite to support your wild claim that Marshall was not treated fairly???  It would mean more if you can support your wild claims.

37598. Jubble at 00:10 AM on 22 March 2014
       The Myth Debunking One-Pager
       

       I very much agree with @BC, in general and with regards the example.  I would be happy to volunteer to help reword if a team effort is required, although I'd need to use the science presented to help do the job rather than my own knowledge, which is not as rounded as other posters here.

       On a related note, I have come to realise that a lot of the information provided by e.g. Watts is or appears very detailed, and is not completely dealt with by rebuttals.  At a higher level of detail, logic says to me that the Watts arguments must be flawed, but the information to debunk them completely is not immediately apparent.  A good example is the one presented by @BC above.

37599. Dikran Marsupial at 23:18 PM on 21 March 2014
       There is no consensus
       

       Prosensus, you need to look at the bigger picture.  Galileos are extremely rare, but crackpots are extremely common.  Marshalls and Warrens are a bit less rare, but they are still way outnumbered by scientists that make bit claims that go against the scientific mainstream in their fields, but who are simply mistaken (e.g. Wakefield, Essenhigh, Salby etc.).  The existence of people like Marshall and Warren illustrates that the existence of a consensus is not absolute proof of anything, but it also doesn't mean that consensus is not good evidence of something being true.  You need to look at the relative frequencies of the consensus being correct and it being incorrect.  Sadly the cases where the consensus is correct (e.g. Salby) tend not to go unreported.

       Nobody is "hiding behind consensus" (frankly that is just the sort of rhetoric we could all do without).  The value of the consensus is demonstrated by the fact that the skeptic scientists keep going on about the lack of consenus, which led to papers like TCP.  Science generally isn't concerned with consensus as the scientists are able to form an informed opinion on the topic for themselves.  The same is not true of the general public, who don't have the scientific background to do this on every topic, which is one of the reasons we have scientific bodies such as the Royal Society, the Royal Statistical Society, the IPCC etc, which show where the mainstream scientific position lies in a way that can be appreciated by the general public.

       "The day we stop questioning consensus is the day science dies." this is a nice soundbite, but nothing more.  If by "we" you mean the general public then the statement if obviously incorrect, science can operate perfectly well without external questioning.  If "we" meant the scientists, *they* are not very interested in following the consensus, the cutting edge is where advances are made, so "questioning the consensus" is their day job.

37600. MA Rodger at 23:03 PM on 21 March 2014
       There is no consensus
       

       Prosensus @585.

       Do you not think your own analogy is itself pretty rubbish.

       Firstly Marshall & Warren developed they hypothesis in 1982. Twenty-three years later they had been awarded the Nobel prize for Medicine. Of the contrarian work in climatology, I see no candidate whatever worthy of any sort of award or commendation. And how long have these numpties been at it?

       Secondly, while Marshall & Warren fought against a consensus, that concensus was not itself wrong as people do get ulcers and stomach cancer because of stress. What the concensus was missing was that there was a microbial cause also acting. It was because 50% of humanity are infected with that microbe and the vast majority do not suffer ulcers that gave Marshall & Warren such an up-hill battle.

       You appear to be arguing that humanity should ignore science because there are always questions for science to answer. Such an argument is nonsense.

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