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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #1 2022

Posted on 6 January 2022 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Incidental rainmaking with utility-scale PV?

Ths week's geoengineering section includes an article that focuses not on planetary cooling but instead  a surprising possible feature of decarbonization, for certain circumstances. The analysis treats a particular geographic context and so it's not possible to say how widely it could be replicated. Even so, the idea that significantly positive increases in rainfall in a part of the world very much in need of more rain could be a side-effect of large scale photovoltaic power installations is not only quite surprising but also quite tantalizing. In this case, it seems possible that at PV plant scales the authors concede are large, water sufficent for the needs of 2.5 million people could be delivered by rainfall to areas already having catchment and reservoir capacity to gather and store it.   Sea Breeze Geoengineering to Increase Rainfall over the Arabian Red Sea Coastal Plains (pdf) published in the AMS Journal of Hydrometeorology by Suleiman Mostamandi et al. explains how this may be possible. Open access and free to read.

'Alarming' recent change in an important river

Irina Panyushkina et al. identify evidence  of  very recent and large differences in the behavior of the largest river draining into the Arctic Ocean, in Unprecedented acceleration of winter discharge of Upper Yenisei River inferred from tree rings (pdf), published in Environmental Research Letters. Paying careful attention to details of climate influences on ring growth, the authors vastly extend the paleohydrographic record for the Yenisei, deep into the 18th century.  They find no precedent in the past 214 years for sudden changes in very recent years, specifically an increase of 80% in winter surge flows. Permafrost melting and warming-induced fires appear to drive this and ultimately result in yet another unfortunate feedback process. The article is open access and free to read. From the abstract:

We discuss the impact on the baseflow rate change of both the accelerating permafrost warming in the discontinuous zone of South Siberia and widespread forest fires. The winter discharge accounts for only one third of the annual flow, yet the persistent 25 year upsurge is alarming. This trend is likely caused by Arctic Amplification, which can be further magnified by increased winter flow delivering significantly more fresh water to the Kara Sea during the cold season.

90 articles in 36 journals by 531 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Decoding the dynamics of poleward shifting climate zones using aqua-planet model simulations
Yang et al. Climate Dynamics
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-021-06112-0

Observations of climate change, effects

Spatiotemporal changes in global aridity in terms of multiple aridity indices: An assessment based on the CRU data
Ullah et al. Atmospheric Research
10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105998

Unprecedented acceleration of winter discharge of Upper Yenisei River inferred from tree rings
Panyushkina et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac3e20

Spatiotemporal variation in global floods with different affected areas and the contribution of influencing factors to flood-induced mortality (1985–2019)
Liu et al. Natural Hazards
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-021-05150-5

Detection of anthropogenically driven trends in Arctic amplification
Wang et al. Climatic Change
10.1007/s10584-021-03296-6

Trends of extreme air temperature and precipitation and their impact on corn and soybean yields in Nebraska, USA
dos Santos et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology
10.1007/s00704-021-03903-7

Recent Eurasian winter cooling partly caused by internal multidecadal variability amplified by Arctic sea ice-air interactions
Dai & Deng Climate Dynamics
10.1007/s00382-021-06095-y

Uneven trends of temperature indices during the growing season and dormancy in Serbia
Ruml et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology
10.1007/s00704-021-03859-8

(provisional link) South African winter rainfall zone shifts: A comparison of seasonality metrics for Cape Town from 1841–1899 and 1933–2020
10.1007/s00704-021-03911-7

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, contributors, effects

(provisional link) Assimilation of atmospheric CO 2 observations from space can support national CO 2 emission inventories
10.1088/1748-9326/ac3cea

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Poleward expansion of tropical cyclone latitudes in warming climates
Studholme et al. Nature Geoscience
10.1038/s41561-021-00859-1

(provisional link) On The Estimation of Internal Climate Variability During the Preindustrial Past Millennium
10.1029/2021GL096596

A storyline view of the projected role of remote drivers on summer air stagnation in Europe and the United States
Garrido-Perez et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4290

Future projections of temperature and precipitation for Antarctica
Tewari et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac43e2

(provisional link) CMIP6 Model-Projected Hydroclimatic and Drought Changes and Their Causes in the Twenty-First Century
10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0442.1

Future projection of precipitation and temperature changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region based on CMIP6
Majdi et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology
10.1007/s00704-021-03916-2

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection GCMA

Modeled and observed properties related to the direct aerosol radiative effect of biomass burning aerosol over the southeastern Atlantic
Doherty et al. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-22-1-2022

Early-winter North Atlantic low-level jet latitude biases in climate models: implications for simulated regional atmosphere-ocean linkages
Bracegirdle et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac417f

Cryosphere & climate change

(provisional link) CMIP6 model projections leave no room for permafrost to persist in Western Siberia under the SSP5-8.5 scenario
10.1007/s10584-021-03292-w

A probabilistic framework for quantifying the role of anthropogenic climate change in marine-terminating glacier retreats
Christian et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2021-394

Uncertainties in projected surface mass balance over the polar ice sheets from dynamically downscaled EC-Earth models
Boberg et al. The Cryosphere
Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-17-2022

Paleoclimate

(provisional link) On The Estimation of Internal Climate Variability During the Preindustrial Past Millennium
10.1029/2021GL096596

Predicting the future of coastal marine ecosystems in the rapidly changing Arctic: the potential of palaeoenvironmental records
Heikkilä et al. Anthropocene
10.1016/j.ancene.2021.100319

Biology & climate change

Predicting the future of coastal marine ecosystems in the rapidly changing Arctic: the potential of palaeoenvironmental records
Heikkilä et al. Anthropocene
10.1016/j.ancene.2021.100319

Of mutualism and migration: will interactions with novel ericoid mycorrhizal communities help or hinder northward Rhododendron range shifts?
Mueller et al. Oecologia
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00442-021-05081-9

Spatiotemporal dynamics of encroaching tall vegetation in timberline ecotone of the Polar Urals Region, Russia
Zhou et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac3694

Altered climate memory characterizes tree growth during forest dieback
Marqués et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108787

Do tradeoffs govern plant species responses to different global change treatments?
Langley et al. Ecology
Open Access pdf 10.1002/ecy.3626

Global warming decreases connectivity among coral populations
Figueiredo et al. Nature Climate Change
10.1038/s41558-021-01248-7

(provisional link) The Negative Impact of Excessive Moisture Contributes to the Seasonal Dynamics of photosynthesis in Amazon moist Forests
10.1126/sciadv.abb7232

The effectiveness of climate action and land recovery across ecosystems, climatic zones and scales
Manes et al. Regional Environmental Change
10.1007/s10113-021-01866-z

North American tree migration paced by climate in the West, lagging in the East
Sharma et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2116691118

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Rapidly changing high-latitude seasonality: implications for the 21st century carbon cycle in Alaska
Shirley et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4362

Climate change impacts plant carbon balance, increasing mean future carbon use efficiency but decreasing total forest extent at dry range edges
Mathias & Trugman Ecology Letters
10.1111/ele.13945

Towards sector-based attribution using intra-city variations in satellite-based emission ratios between CO2 and CO
Wu et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2021-1029

(provisional link) Quantification of methane emissions from hotspots and during COVID-19 using a global atmospheric inversion

Carbon Accumulation, Flux, and Fate in Stordalen Mire, a Permafrost Peatland in Transition
Holmes et al. Global Biogeochemical Cycles
10.1029/2021gb007113

Soil carbon loss in warmed subarctic grasslands is rapid and restricted to topsoil
Verbrigghe et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2021-338

Variability of ecosystem carbon source from microbial respiration is controlled by rainfall dynamics
Huang et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
10.1073/pnas.2115283118

The sensitivity of pCO2 reconstructions in the Southern Ocean to sampling scales: a semi-idealized model sampling and reconstruction approach
Djeutchouang et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2021-344

Significant methane undersaturation during austral summer in the Ross Sea (Southern Ocean)
Ye et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2021-334

Local to regional methane emissions from the Upper Silesia Coal Basin (USCB) quantified using UAV-based atmospheric measurements
Andersen et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2021-1061

Accounting for foliar gradients in Vcmax and Jmax improves estimates of net CO2 exchange of forests
Bachofen et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108771

The changing carbon balance of tundra ecosystems: results from a vertically-resolved peatland biosphere model
Larson et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4070

Pocket gopher disturbance slows soil carbon accumulation in abandoned agricultural lands
Yang et al. Ecology
10.1002/ecy.3627

Grazing exclusion alters carbon flux of alpine meadow in the Tibetan Plateau
Du et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108774

Opposing Effects of Climate and Permafrost Thaw on CH4 and CO2 Emissions From Northern Lakes
Kuhn et al. AGU Advances
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021av000515

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Large-scale CO2 removal by enhanced carbonate weathering from changes in land-use practices
Zeng et al. Earth
10.1016/j.earscirev.2021.103915

(provisional link) Capture of CO2 by vermiculite impregnated with CaO
10.1080/17583004.2021.2023050

The potential of seaweed cultivation to achieve carbon neutrality and mitigate deoxygenation and eutrophication
Gao et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac3fd9

Decarbonization

Projected transition to electric vehicles in India and its impact on stakeholders
Chaturvedi et al. Energy for Sustainable Development
Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2021.12.006

(provisional link) Asymmetric effect of structural change and renewable energy consumption on carbon emissions: designing an SDG framework for Turkey
10.1007/s10668-021-02065-w

Technology Pathways Could Help Drive the U.S. West Coast Grid's Exposure to Hydrometeorological Uncertainty
Wessel et al. Earth's Future
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021ef002187

Geoengineering climate

Investigating the effect of nickel concentration on phytoplankton growth to inform the assessment of ocean alkalinity enhancement
Guo et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2021-312

Assessing the consequences of including aerosol absorption in potential Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Climate Intervention Strategies
Haywood et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2021-1032

Dependency of the impacts of geoengineering on the stratospheric sulfur injection strategy – Part 1: Intercomparison of modal and sectional aerosol modules
Laakso et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2021-526

Sea Breeze Geoengineering to Increase Rainfall over the Arabian Red Sea Coastal Plains
Mostamandi et al. Journal of Hydrometeorology
10.1175/jhm-d-20-0266.1

Sensitivity of tropical monsoon precipitation to the latitude of stratospheric aerosol injections
Krishnamohan & Bala Climate Dynamics
10.1007/s00382-021-06121-z

Black carbon

Black carbon measurements from Ireland's Atmospheric Composition and Climate Change (AC3) network
Spohn et al. Atmospheric Environment
10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118932

Contrasting source contributions of Arctic black carbon to atmospheric concentrations, deposition flux, and atmospheric and snow radiative effects
Matsui et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2021-1091

Aerosols

Non-reversible aging can increase solar absorption in African biomass burning aerosol plumes of intermediate age
Dobracki et al.
Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2021-1081

Uncertainty in aerosol optical depth from modern aerosol-climate models, reanalyses, and satellite products
Vogel et al. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Open Access pdf 10.1029/2021jd035483

Climate change communications & cognition

Environmental legitimacy pressure, political connection and impression management of carbon information disclosure
Luo et al. Carbon Management
Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2021.2022537

Visualizing climate change: the role of construal level, emotional valence, and visual literacy
Duan & Bombara Bombara Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-021-03291-x

Socioeconomic geography of climate change views in Europe
Weckroth & Ala-Mantila Global Environmental Change
Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102453

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Short-term high nighttime temperatures pose an emerging risk to rice grain failure
Sakai et al. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
10.1016/j.agrformet.2021.108779

Laurentian Great Lakes warming threatens northern fruit belt refugia
Warren & Vermette International Journal of Biometeorology
10.1007/s00484-021-02226-6

Diversification of rice growing areas in Eastern India with integrated soil–crop system management for GHGs mitigation and higher productivity
Singh et al. Carbon Management
Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2021.2023049

Improving the design of climate insurance: combining empirical approaches and modelling
Will et al. Climate and Development
Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2021.2007837

Trends of extreme air temperature and precipitation and their impact on corn and soybean yields in Nebraska, USA
dos Santos et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology
10.1007/s00704-021-03903-7

Organic inputs in agroforestry systems improve soil organic carbon storage in Itasy, Madagascar
Rakotovao et al. Regional Environmental Change
10.1007/s10113-021-01863-2

Variability of climate-induced rice yields in northwest Bangladesh using multiple statistical modeling
Islam et al. Theoretical and Applied Climatology
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-021-03909-1

Double cropping and manure management mitigate the environmental impact of a dairy farm under present and future climate
Castaño-Sánchez et al. Agricultural Systems
10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103326

Hydrology & climate change

Unprecedented acceleration of winter discharge of Upper Yenisei River inferred from tree rings
Panyushkina et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac3e20

Spatiotemporal variation in global floods with different affected areas and the contribution of influencing factors to flood-induced mortality (1985–2019)
Liu et al. Natural Hazards
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-021-05150-5

(provisional link) CMIP6 Model-Projected Hydroclimatic and Drought Changes and Their Causes in the Twenty-First Century
10.1175/JCLI-D-21-0442.1

Climate change economics

The Economics of the Greenium: How Much is the World Willing to Pay to Save the Earth?
Lau et al. Environmental and Resource Economics
10.1007/s10640-021-00630-5

Potential impacts and challenges of border carbon adjustments
Böhringer et al. Nature Climate Change
10.1038/s41558-021-01250-z

Climate risk and IMF surveillance policy: a baseline analysis
Ramos et al. Climate Policy
10.1080/14693062.2021.2016363

The effectiveness of China’s regional carbon market pilots in reducing firm emissions
Cui et al. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2109912118

Do financial development, economic growth, energy consumption, and trade openness contribute to increase carbon emission in Pakistan? An insight based on ARDL bound testing approach
Usman et al. Environment, Development and Sustainability
10.1007/s10668-021-02062-z

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Why do some countries receive more international financing for coal-fired power plants than renewables? Influencing factors in 23 countries
Edianto et al. Energy for Sustainable Development
Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2021.12.004

Does resource abundance require special approaches to climate policies? The case of Russia
Makarov Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-021-03280-0

Can global models provide insights into regional mitigation strategies? A diagnostic model comparison study of bioenergy in Brazil
Köberle et al. Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-021-03236-4

Mitigating size bias for carbon pricing in small Asia-Pacific countries: Increasing block carbon tax
An et al. Energy Policy
10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112771

(provisional link) Carbon footprint assessment and mitigation scenarios: a benchmark model for GHG indicator in a Nigerian University

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

An assessment of systems, agents, and institutions in building community resilience to climate change: A case study of Charlottetown, Canada
Birchall et al. Urban Climate
Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2021.101062

Policy attention to climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability: a global assessment of National Communications (1994–2019)
Biesbroek et al. Climate Policy
Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2021.2018986

How is science making its way into national climate change adaptation policy? Insights from Burkina Faso
Theokritoff & Lise D’haen Climate and Development
Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2021.2018985

Climate change impacts on human health

Climate change impacts on infectious diseases in the Eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East (EMME)—risks and recommendations
Paz et al. Climatic Change
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-021-03300-z

Asthma exacerbation due to climate change-induced wildfire smoke in the Western US
Stowell et al. Environmental Research Letters
Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/ac4138

Heat vulnerability and extreme heat risk at the metropolitan scale: A case study of Taipei metropolitan area, Taiwan
Chen et al. Urban Climate
Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2021.101054

Climate change impacts on human culture

Multi-risk assessment in a historical city
Arrighi et al. Natural Hazards
Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11069-021-05125-6

Other

(provisional link) Tourism, renewable energy and CO2 emissions: evidence from Europe and Central Asia
10.1007/s10668-021-01993-x

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

The value of values in climate science
Pulkkinen et al. Nature Climate Change
Open Access 10.1038/s41558-021-01238-9

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Part 1 From Farm to Kitchen: The Environmental Impacts of U.S. Food Waste (pdf), Jaglo et al., US EPA

Over one-third of the food produced in the United States is never eaten, wasting the resources used to produce it and creating a myriad of environmental impacts. Food waste is the single most common material landfilled and incinerated in the United States, comprising 24 and 22 percent of landfilled and combusted municipal solid waste, respectively. This wasted food presents opportunities to increase food security, foster productivity and economic efficiency, promote resource and energy conservation, and address climate change. As the United States strives to meet the Paris Agreement targets to limit the increase in global temperature to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, changes to the food system are essential. Even if fossil fuel emissions were halted, current trends in the food system would prevent the achievement of this goal. Globally, food loss and waste represent 8 percent of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (4.4 gigatons CO2e annually), offering an opportunity for meaningful reductions. Reducing food waste can also help feed the world’s growing population more sustainably. The United Nations (UN) predicts that the world population will reach 9.3 billion by 2050. This population increase will require a more than 50 percent increase in food production from 2010 levels. Decreasing food waste can lessen the need for new food production, shrinking projected deforestation, biodiversity loss, greenhouse gas emissions, water pollution, and water scarcity.

 


Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. As it is the journal's decision to do so, we respect that and include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

What does "(provisional link)" mean?

When the input list for New Research is processed, some articles do not produce a result from the journal databases we employ. Usually this is because the publisher has not yet supplied information to doi.org for the given article. In these cases and in order to still include timely listing of articles, we employ an alternate search tactic. While this method is usually correct, sometimes the link shown will lead to an incorrect destination (available time does not always permit manual checking of these). We invite readers to submit corrections in comments below.

Each edition of New Research is reprocessed some two weeks after intitial publication to catch stragglers into the DOI ecosystem. Many "provisional links" will end up being corrected as part of this process. 

Suggestions

Please let us know if you're aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we've missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.

Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.

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