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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #40 2023

Posted on 5 October 2023 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

The Stepwise Reduction of Multiyear Sea Ice Area in the Arctic Ocean Since 1980, JGR Oceans, Babb et al.:

To this point the loss of multiyear ice is known, but it remains unclear whether it was a change in multiyear ice loss through export or melt or the source of multiyear through replenishment that has driven this change. By quantifying these three terms for each of the past 42 years we find that multiyear ice loss primarily occurred through two stepwise reductions, with the budget otherwise generally being in balance. The first loss occurred in 1989 due to anomalously high export, while the second loss occurred between 2006 and 2008 through a confluence of anomalously high export and melt and low replenishment. Trends of reduced export, increased melt and increased replenishment, and overall negative multiyear ice balance, suggest the eventual disappearance of multiyear ice from the Arctic Ocean.

Coastal permafrost was massively eroded during the Bølling-Allerød warm period, Nature Communications Earth & Environment, Nogarotto et al.: 

We show that permafrost-derived material rich in biospheric carbon became the dominant source of sediments at the onset of the Bølling-Allerød, despite the lack of direct connections with permafrost deposits. Our results suggest that the abrupt temperature and sea level rise triggered massive erosion of coastal ice-rich Yedoma permafrost, possibly from Siberian and Alaskan coasts, followed by long-range sea ice transport towards the Fram Strait and the Arctic Ocean gateway. Overall, we show how coastal permafrost is susceptible to large-scale remobilization in a scenario of rapid climate variability.

Climate change influences the risk of physically harmful human-wildlife interactions, Biological Conservation, Newsom, Sebesvari & Dorresteijn:

Our analysis showed that climate change can increase wildlife-induced physical harm to people. This result was consistent for venomous species, terrestrial-and aquatic carnivorous species and large-bodied terrestrial animals in 44 countries across the globe. We identified four climate driven trends that impact the risk of human casualties: i) increased resource competition between humans and wildlife due to drought; ii) range expansion of dangerous animals due to higher average temperatures; iii) temporary displacement of wildlife due to extreme weather events; iv) and changes in temporal behaviour patterns of wildlife due to higher average temperatures. 

Low impact siting for wind power facilities in the Southeast United States, Wind Energy, Feng et al.:

In this paper, we identify the areas where installed wind power capacity is least likely to disrupt wildlife and sensitive natural areas in the southeastern United States. The generated maps exclude geographic areas unsuitable for wind power development due to environmental concerns or technical considerations corresponding to five categories. The resulting geospatial product suggests that even after removing sizable areas from consideration, there is significant land for wind development to meet the Southeast's energy needs and clean energy goals.

Rumores Renovables: Analyzing the Online Ecosystem of Spanish-Speaking Communities Opposed to Renewable Energy InitiativesCristina López G. & Santiago LakatosGraphika

The authors first mapped the communities on X (formerly Twitter) most engaged with anti-renewables content, which revealed a network of majority right-leaning Spanish-speaking accounts, primarily focused on Spain, which consistently amplified anti-renewables narratives in the first six months of 2023. These accounts are not exclusively focused on environmental topics – instead, they are connected by ideological affinity and shared language, focused on advancing right-wing narratives, some of which occasionally involve pushing back against renewable energies. The volume of content produced by these communities correlates directly with extreme weather events or environmental policy updates featuring renewable energies.

125 articles in 58 journals by 783 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Estimation of downwelling surface longwave radiation for cloudy skies by considering the radiation effect from the entire cloud layers, Jiang et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2023.113829

Extremely long-lived marine heatwave in South China Sea during summer 2020: Combined effects of the seasonal and intraseasonal variations, Han et al., Global and Planetary Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104261

Sensitivities of cloud radiative effects to large-scale meteorology and aerosols from global observations, Andersen et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-23-10775-2023

Shifts of the Recirculation Pathways in central Fram Strait drive Atlantic Intermediate Water Variability on Northeast Greenland shelf, McPherson et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2023jc019915

The 2022 record-breaking high temperature in China: Sub-seasonal stepwise enhanced characteristics, possible causes and its predictability, Ma et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.09.008

The Role of Bjerknes and Shortwave Feedbacks in the Tropical Pacific SST Response to Global Warming, Fu & Fedorov, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105061

Observations of climate change, effects

Arctic cyclones have become more intense and longer-lived over the past seven decades, Zhang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01003-0

Attribution assessment of hydrological trends and extremes to climate change for Northern high latitude catchments in Norway, Yang & Huang, Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03615-z

Climate change is narrowing and shifting prescribed fire windows in western United States, Swain et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00993-1

Evolution of long-term trends and variability in air temperatures of Kazakhstan for the period 1963–2020, Bayer-Alt?n et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04650-7

Heat stress in South America over the last four decades: a bioclimatic analysis, Miranda et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-023-04668-x

Loss of autumn Kara-East Siberian Sea ice intensifies winter Ural blocking and cold anomalies in high latitudes of Eurasia, Song et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.107038

No detectable trend in mid-latitude cold extremes during the recent period of Arctic amplification, Cohen et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01008-9

Seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones in a warming climate, Shan et al., Nature Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41586-023-06544-0

The Stepwise Reduction of Multiyear Sea Ice Area in the Arctic Ocean Since 1980, Babb et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2023jc020157

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Another scanning test of trend change in regression coefficients applied to monthly temperature on global land and sea surfaces, Jiang, Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access 10.1007/s00704-023-04649-0

Non-monotonic trend analysis using Mann–Kendall with self-quantiles, Alashan, Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access 10.1007/s00704-023-04666-z

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Assessment of the summer Asian–Pacific Oscillation pattern in CMIP6 models: historical simulations and future projections, Hua et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04687-8

Global Warming Increases Interannual and Multidecadal Variability of Subarctic Atlantic Nutrients and Biological Production in the CESM1-LE, Whitt, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104272

Investigating future Arctic sea ice loss and near-surface wind speed changes related to surface roughness using the Community Earth System Model, DuVivier et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd038824

Projected changes in extreme climate events over Africa under 1.5 , 2.0 and 3.0 global warming levels based on CMIP6 projections, Ayugi et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106872

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Emergent constraints on future extreme precipitation intensification: From global to continental scales, Paik et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100613

Evaluation of Radiatively Active Frozen Hydrometeors Mass in CMIP6 Global Climate Models Using CloudSat-CALIPSO Observations, Li et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd039200

Groundwater Feedbacks on Climate Change in the CNRM Global Climate Model, Colin et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0767.1

Intercomparison of CORDEX-CORE and CORDEX-SA model experiments in assessing Indian summer monsoon, Sharma et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04667-y

The Coupled Ice Sheet–Earth System Model Bern3D v3.0, Pöppelmeier et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0104.1

The influence of bias correction of global climate models prior to dynamical downscaling on projections of changes in climate: a case study over the CORDEX-Australasia domain, Wamahiu et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-06949-7

Use of Shallow Ice Core Measurements to Evaluate and Constrain 1980–1990 Global Reanalyses of Ice Sheet Precipitation Rates, Schneider et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl103943

Warm Clouds Biases in CMIP6 Models Linked to Indirect Effects of Falling Ice-Radiation Interactions Over the Tropical and Subtropical Pacific, Li et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104990

Cryosphere & climate change

A cleaner snow future mitigates Northern Hemisphere snowpack loss from warming, Hao et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-41732-6

Ice Shelf Water Structure Beneath the Larsen C Ice Shelf in Antarctica, Na et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104088

Influence of climate and non-climatic attributes on declining glacier mass budget and surging in Alaknanda Basin and its surroundings, Bhattacharya et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104260

Unchanged frequency and decreasing magnitude of outbursts from ice-dammed lakes in Alaska, Rick et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-41794-6

Sea level & climate change

Localized uplift, widespread subsidence, and implications for sea level rise in the New York City metropolitan area, Buzzanga et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adi8259

Subsidence reveals potential impacts of future sea level rise on inhabited mangrove coasts, van Bijsterveldt et al., Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-023-01226-1

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Coastal permafrost was massively eroded during the Bølling-Allerød warm period, Nogarotto et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01013-y

Long-term changes in the frequency of exceptionally cold and warm months and seasons at selected stations in Europe in the early instrumental period, Skrzy?ska et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8265

Shallow-water hydrothermal venting linked to the Palaeocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, Berndt et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-023-01246-8

The response of wildfire regimes to Last Glacial Maximum carbon dioxide and climate, Haas et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-20-3981-2023

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Climate change influences the risk of physically harmful human-wildlife interactions, Newsom et al., Biological Conservation Open Access 10.1016/j.biocon.2023.110255

Climate effects on the distribution and conservation of commonly observed European earthworms, Zeiss et al., Conservation Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/cobi.14187

Divergent response of leaf unfolding to climate warming in subtropical and temperate zones, Yu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109742

Expert preferences on options for biodiversity conservation under climate change, Clement et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102759

Not just range limits: Warming rate and thermal sensitivity shape climate change vulnerability in a species range center, Beaty et al., Ecology 10.1002/ecy.4183

Oyster reefs' control of carbonate chemistry—Implications for oyster reef restoration in estuaries subject to coastal ocean acidification, Tomasetti et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16960

Spring photosynthetic phenology of Chinese vegetation in response to climate change and its impact on net primary productivity, Xue et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109734

Standardization of in situ coral bleaching measurements highlights the variability in responses across genera, morphologies, and regions, Khen et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.16100

The functioning of alpine grassland ecosystems: Climate outweighs plant species richness, Cheng et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.14202

Top-down versus bottom-up: Grazing and upwelling regime alter patterns of primary productivity in a warm-temperate system, Gilson & McQuaid, Ecology 10.1002/ecy.4180

Upward-moving mountain treelines: An indicator of changing climate, Qiu et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16954

Where to live? Landfast sea ice shapes emperor penguin habitat around Antarctica, Labrousse et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adg8340

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Aquatic plant wax hydrogen and carbon isotopes in Greenland lakes record shifts in methane cycling during past Holocene warming, McFarlin et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adh9704

Causes and consequences of acidification in the Baltic Sea: implications for monitoring and management, Gustafsson et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-023-43596-8

Chemical oxygen demand (COD) as a measure of fluvial organic matter oxidation state, Worrall et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022jg007248

Deterministic and stochastic components of atmospheric CO inside forest canopies and consequences for predicting carbon and water exchange, Muñoz & Sierra, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109624

Effect of biomass burning emission on carbon assimilation over Brazilian Pantanal, Curado et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04673-0

Environmental challenges related to methane hydrate decomposition from climate change scenario and anthropic activities: State of the art, potential consequences and monitoring solutions, Ruffine et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2023.104578

Estimating marine carbon uptake in the northeast Pacific using a neural network approach, Duke et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-20-3919-2023

Experimental erosion of microbial diversity decreases soil CH4 consumption rates, Schnyder et al., Ecology Open Access 10.1002/ecy.4178

Freshwater Displacement Effect on the Weddell Gyre Carbon Budget, Taylor et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl103952

Linking Sediment Gas Storage to the Methane Dynamics in a Shallow Freshwater Reservoir, Marcon et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2022jg007365

Soil carbon storage capacity of drylands under altered fire regimes, Pellegrini et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01800-7

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

Uncertain Spatial Pattern of Future Land Use and Land Cover Change and Its Impacts on Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Over the Arctic–Boreal Region of North America, Luo et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003648

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Secure robust carbon dioxide removal policy through credible certification, Schenuit et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01014-x

The problem of permanence for carbon sequestration in forests, Loehle, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10.1007/s11027-023-10079-0

Decarbonization

Assessment of the high-resolution estimations of global and diffuse solar radiation using WRF-Solar, Yun-Bo et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.09.009

Battery metal recycling by flash Joule heating, Chen et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adh5131

Energy consumption of current and future production of lithium-ion and post lithium-ion battery cells, Degen et al., Nature Energy Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41560-023-01355-z

Energy-efficient polysulfide-redox flow batteries enabled by homogeneous catalysis, , Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-023-01376-8

Low impact siting for wind power facilities in the Southeast United States, Feng et al., Wind Energy Open Access pdf 10.1002/we.2868

Geoengineering climate

Climate cooperation with risky solar geoengineering, Cherry et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-023-03612-2

Aerosols

Global organic and inorganic aerosol hygroscopicity and its effect on radiative forcing, Pöhlker et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-41695-8

Climate change communications & cognition

Education in the Anthropocene: assessing planetary health science standards in the USA, Capel et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rspb.2023.0975

Extreme Weather Events as Teachable Moments: Catalyzing Climate Change Learning and Action Through Conversation, Ettinger et al., Environmental Communication Open Access pdf 10.1080/17524032.2023.2259623

Naming and shaming as a strategy for enforcing the Paris Agreement: The role of political institutions and public concern, Dannenberg et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2305075120

The Impact of Extreme Precipitation Events and Their Variability on Climate Change Beliefs in the American Public, Alexander et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0014.1

Understanding climate change adaptation in Ghana: The role of climate change anxiety, experience, and knowledge, Abunyewah et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103594

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Climate change information tailored to the agricultural sector in Central Europe, exemplified on the region of Lower Franconia, Paeth et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03613-1

Exploring the cooling effect of shading for climate change adaptation in coffee areas, Lara-Estrada et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100562

Priority science can accelerate agroforestry as a natural climate solution, Terasaki Hart et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01810-5

The neglected role of abandoned cropland in supporting both food security and climate change mitigation, Zheng et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-41837-y

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

A comparative analysis of the attribution of extreme summer precipitation in south and north parts of the East China monsoon region—with the year 2020 as an example, Li et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8260

Attribution assessment of hydrological trends and extremes to climate change for Northern high latitude catchments in Norway, Yang & Huang, Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03615-z

Changes in the supply and demand potentials of China’s glacier water resources in the 21st century: Spatiotemporal mismatches and combined effects, Su et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.09.010

Emergent constraints on future extreme precipitation intensification: From global to continental scales, Paik et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100613

MOPREDAS&century database and precipitation trends in mainland Spain, 1916–2020, Gonzalez?Hidalgo et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8060

Spatial modeling the climate change risk of river basins via climate classification: a scenario-based prediction approach for Türkiye, Isinkaralar et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-023-06220-6

Statistical downscaling for precipitation projections in West Africa, Polasky et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access 10.1007/s00704-023-04637-4

Climate change economics

Bank connections, corporate social responsibility and low-carbon innovation, Chen, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113840

Carbon intensity of global crude oil trading and market policy implications, Dixit et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-41701-z

How many people will live in poverty because of climate change? A macro-level projection analysis to 2070, Moyer et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03611-3

Is switching to solar energy a feasible investment? A techno-economic analysis of domestic consumers in Spain, Codina et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113834

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Carbon dioxide removal and mitigation deterrence in EU climate policy: Towards a research approach, Brad & Schneider, Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103591

Carbon-neutral pathways to 2050 for Japan's aviation industry in the absence of a mass supply of sustainable aviation fuels, Kito et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/jiec.13443

Costs and health benefits of the rural energy transition to carbon neutrality in China, Ma et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-41707-7

Emission pathways and mitigation options for achieving consumption-based climate targets in Sweden, Morfeldt et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01012-z

Is the city low-carbon because of its compactness? An empirical study in Shanghai, China, Chen et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101690

Net zero by choice? Oil and gas industry motivations for the energy transition and public policy in Scotland, Hughes & Zabala, Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2023.2262439

Prevalence and predictors of wind energy opposition in North America, Stokes et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2302313120

Secure robust carbon dioxide removal policy through credible certification, Schenuit et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01014-x

Study of the impact of industrial restructuring on the intensity of greenhouse gas emissions: empirical data from China, Wang & Luo, Environmental Science and Pollution Research 10.1007/s11356-022-22735-0

The impact of blending mandates on biofuel consumption, production, emission reductions and fuel prices, Lundberg et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113835

The impact of passenger electric vehicles on carbon reduction and environmental impact under the 2050 net zero policy in Taiwan, Shen et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113838

The primary benefits of the Nationwide Emission Trading Scheme in China, Chen et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10.1007/s11027-023-10084-3

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A social-cognitive model of climate change behavioral adaption in Tonga: Relationships among indigenous knowledge, social media use, norms, values, and spiritual beliefs, Sattler et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2023.102148

Are transport networks in low-income countries prepared for climate change? Barriers to preparing for climate change in Africa and South Asia, Greenham et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-023-10078-1

Exploring the association between health, local area characteristics and climate action plans in the UK: Cross-sectional analysis using administrative data from 2018 and a citizen science ranking of climate action plans from 2021, Brown et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000166

Extreme Arctic Weather and Community Impacts in Nunavut: A Case Study of One Winter’s Storms and Lessons for Local Climate Change Preparedness, Fox et al., Weather, Climate, and Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0006.1

Investigation of urban heat island and climate change and their combined impact on building cooling demand in the hot and humid climate of Qatar, Kamal et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101704

Severity of climate change and deprivation outcomes: Micro-level assessment for sub-Saharan Africa, Bukari & Aluko, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103593

Climate change impacts on human health

Disentangling local and global climate drivers in the population dynamics of mosquito-borne infections, Cazelles et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adf7202

Exploring the Spatial Patterning of Sociodemographic Disparities in Extreme Heat Exposure at Multiple Scales Across the Conterminous United States, Rastogi et al., GeoHealth Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gh000864

Heat stress in South America over the last four decades: a bioclimatic analysis, Miranda et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-023-04668-x

Household survey on climate change and human health in a low-income country: Associations between increased health emergencies and extreme changes in climate in Liberia, Ross et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000286

Thermal stress during heat waves and cold spells in Poland, Tomczyk & Bednorz, Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100612

Climate change & geopolitics

Sustainably developing global blue carbon for climate change mitigation and economic benefits through international cooperation, Feng et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-41870-x

Climate change impacts on human culture

The sacred and climate change: local perceptions from KaNyaka island in Mozambique, Eugénio Mubai et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100564

Other

Challenging the values of the polluter elite: A global consequentialist response to Evensen and Graham's (2022) ‘The irreplaceable virtues of in-person conferences’, Whitmarsh & Kreil, Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2022.101881

Recent Increase in a Recurrent Pan-Atlantic Wave Pattern Driving Concurrent Wintertime Extremes, Kornhuber & Messori Messori, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-21-0295.1

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Establishing resilience in times of climate change—a perspective on humans and buildings, Pallubinsky et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03614-0

Facing climate change across Latin America and the Caribbean, Fernández et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01820-3

High ‘steaks’: Building support for reducing agricultural emissions, Mattauch & Tenkhoff, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000291

Technological innovation enables low cost climate change mitigation, Creutzig et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2023.103276

Book reviews

Thomas Dietz. Decisions for sustainability: facts and values, Smardon, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences 10.1007/s13412-023-00862-5


Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Somalia, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

Somalia experienced its worst drought on record from 2021 to 2023, with an unprecedented five consecutive failed rainy seasons that displaced hundreds of thousands of people, undermined livelihoods, and raised the specter of famine in some areas. From August 2022, clan militias and the Somali armed forces launched operations against al-Shabab in some of the most drought-affected regions. As climate change and conflict continue apace in Somalia, the need for robust analyses and responses to climate-related security risks has never been greater.

City of Ann Arbor. 100% Renewable Energy Options Analysis, 5 Lakes Energy, SunStore Energy, Potomac Law Group and NewGen

The City of Ann Arbor has committed to using electricity generated only by renewable sources by 2030. The current growth trajectory of renewables in Ann Arbor’s electricity supply will leave the City well short of 100% renewable energy (RE) in 2030. Achieving the 2030 goal will depend on the City’s ability to mobilize additional RE resources and implement the most favorable organizational structures to deploy them. The authors present the risks, benefits, and tradeoffs to support decision-making by the City’s elected leaders and participation by the public and other stakeholders. The City's required pace of behind-the-meter (BTM) photovoltaic (PV) and building energy efficiency improvements are ambitious and largely unprecedented, regardless of the utility structure the City pursues. Even if the City achieves a high level of success with distributed energy resources, some nonrenewable electricity will almost certainly remain in Ann Arbor’s electrical grid in 2030, requiring the purchase of virtual assets through such mechanisms as renewable energy credits (RECs) or Virtual Power Purchase Agreements (VPPAs) to make up the difference.

ON FIRE: The Report of the Wildland Fire Mitigation and Management Commission, The Wildland Fire Mitigation and Management Commission

The authors provide policy recommendations to address nearly every facet of the wildfire crisis, including mitigation, management, and postfire rehabilitation and recovery. The recommendations outline a new approach to wildfire, one that is proactive in nature, better matched to the immense scale and scope of the crisis, and more reflective of the multi-scalar, interrelated nature of the overall system. Importantly, just as there is no single cause of this crisis, there is no single solution. For example, greater coordination, interoperability, collaboration, and, in some cases, simplification within the wildfire system are needed. Federal agencies alone should not – and in fact, cannot – effectively address the wildfire challenge. The whole of society must be involved. This requires meaningful shared decision-making with a range of entities – Tribal, state, and local governments; residents; non-governmental organizations; private industry; the research community; and others – at every level.

Covering Coal: The Top Insurers of U.S. Coal Mining, Mary Sweeters and Kerrina Williams, Public Citizen and Insure Our Future

Global insurers AIG, Liberty Mutual, Lloyd’s of London, Swiss Re, and Zurich are among the top insurers of U.S. coal mining. In 2022, these five insurers covered the production of at least 245,139,030 short tons of coal, or 41% of U.S. coal production, from just the top 25 U.S. mines. These five insurers are among more than a dozen that are enabling ongoing operations in the U.S. coal mining sector, which, in addition to being a major source of carbon dioxide emissions and a driver of climate change, has a long history of air and water pollution and labor and human rights harms. Four of these five companies have adopted coal underwriting restrictions, and yet they are still among the top insurers of thermal coal mines. In aggregate, this data exposes the weaknesses of insurers’ current coal restriction policies.

Paying polluters: the catastrophic consequences of investor-State dispute settlement for climate and environment action and human rights, David Boyd, United Nations

Foreign investors have weaponized a secretive international arbitration process, known as investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS), that is embedded in thousands of international investment agreements (IIAs), mostly bilateral investment treaties. Claims under the ISDS process are used to challenge climate and environmental actions taken by States and to demand billions of dollars in compensation. These cases are decided not by independent judges but by arbitration lawyers, many of whom work for law firms that represent investors. This unjust, undemocratic, and dysfunctional process has sparked a legitimacy crisis in the international investment regime. The author identifies specific actions that States must take to avoid future claims under the investor-state dispute settlement process and fulfill their human rights obligations.

The Corporate Climate Finance Playbook. Unlocking Corporate Finance for Climate Action, Climate Policy Initiative and Salesforce

The authors provide the first draft of a blueprint presenting which climate financial tools are currently available, how best to use them, and when they should be used. The authors hope their blueprint serves as a starting point to spark conversations and propel global industries forward so they can meet global climate targets, deliver on corporate climate goals, and close the climate finance gap.

Climate Change and Extreme Heat, Jonathan Haskett, Congressional Research Service

The United States experienced a series of record-breaking heat waves during the summer of 2023. The heat waves brought extreme temperatures to various U.S. regions, including Puerto Rico, the southern Plains, and the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states, with life-threatening conditions in some areas. These heat waves are part of a trend of rising global temperatures. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) maintain datasets of global average surface temperatures. According to these datasets, as of January 2023, the warmest years since the advent of modern recordkeeping occurred in 2010-2022, with 2016 and 2020 tied (i.e., statistically indistinguishable) as the warmest years on record.

EU Solar Jobs Report 2023 – Bridging the solar skills gap through quality and quantity, Lits et al., SolarPower Europe

In the year 2022, the European Union (EU) solar industry provided employment for approximately 648,000 full-time equivalent positions (FTEs). This translates to a 39% growth from the number of solar jobs provided in 2021. Among the jobs created in 2022, 281,000 FTEs, which accounts for 43% of the total, were direct employment opportunities, whereas the remaining 367,000 were classified as indirect jobs. The majority of these positions (84%) were linked to activities related to the deployment of solar systems. Approximately 8% of the total jobs were associated with operation and maintenance, whereas manufacturing accounted for 7%, and decommissioning and recycling made up a minor share of 1%. The year 2022 has also been pivotal since Operation and Maintenance jobs are now surpassing the jobs created in the manufacturing sector. This reflects the discrepancies between the installation rates of PV and the slow expansion of a local supply chain.

Growing Solar, Protecting Nature, Manion et al., Mass Audubon and Harvard Forest

Massachusetts’ current pattern of solar development is causing unnecessary harm to nature. Since 2010, over 5,000 acres of natural and working lands have been destroyed for solar development in Massachusetts, resulting in the emission of over half a million metric tons of CO?— more than the annual emissions of 100,000 passenger cars. Every acre of forest destroyed is a huge loss for birds and other wildlife, clean air and water, natural beauty, and recreation. But most importantly, cutting forests and developing farmlands to build solar energy does not make sense for the climate: natural ecosystems and farm soils absorb 10% of Massachusetts’ greenhouse gas emissions every year. Both nature conservation and solar energy must be treated as essential strategies in our response to the climate crisis. To identify a way for Massachusetts to build the solar energy it needs and protect the nature it has, the authors examined options for future solar development. Their recommendations include eliminating state incentives for solar projects on valuable natural and working lands while increasing incentives for solar on rooftops and developed lands, investing in reducing the labor and permitting costs of rooftop and canopy solar projects, and supporting large-scale landowners in building solar on rooftops and near existing transmission infrastructure.

July 13-23, 2023, Washington Post-University of Maryland Climate poll, Washington Post and the Center for Democracy and Civic Engagement, University of Maryland

The authors conducted a poll online and by phone between July 13-23, 2023, among a random national sample of 1,404 adults. Overall results have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. As renewable energy becomes more widespread in the United States, a large and bipartisan majority of Americans say they would not mind fields of solar panels and wind turbines being built in their communities. Three-quarters of all Americans say they would be comfortable living near solar farms while nearly 7 in 10 report feeling the same about wind turbines. And these attitudes appear to remain largely consistent regardless of where people live. According to the poll, 69 percent of residents in rural and suburban areas say they would be comfortable if wind turbines were constructed in their area, as do 66 percent of urban residents. General comfort with green energy infrastructure crosses party lines, with 66 percent of Republicans saying they are comfortable with a field of solar panels being built in their community and 59 percent comfortable with wind turbines. Among Democrats, 87 percent are comfortable with solar farms and 79 percent with wind farms. By contrast, fewer than half of Democrats or Republicans would welcome a nuclear power plant in their community.

Climate Change in the Indonesian Mind, Leiserowitz et al., Yale Program on Climate Change Communication

Indonesia is home to more than 275 million people – the fourth most populous country in the world – and has been ranked as one of the top ten emitters of global carbon emissions. Indonesia is also highly exposed to numerous climate hazards and vulnerable to many climate change impacts, including flooding, droughts, and heat waves. While Indonesia is one of the largest global producers of coal and the largest gas supplier in Southeast Asia, the country has ambitious plans to become one of the world’s largest biofuel producers, and to cut emissions by about 32% on their own or 43% with international support, exceeding the goals set by the Paris Climate Agreement. Some of the findings from the poll include that 76% of people in Indonesia say they either know “a little” about global warming (55%) or “have never heard of it” (20%). However, after reading a short definition of global warming, 63% think global warming is happening. 29% think that global warming is happening and that it is caused mostly by human activities, while 23% think it is happening and caused more or less equally by human activities and natural changes in the environment. Only 8% think global warming is happening and is caused mostly by natural changes in the environment.

Rumores Renovables. Analyzing the Online Ecosystem of Spanish-Speaking Communities Opposed to Renewable Energy Initiatives, y Cristina López G. and Santiago Lakatos, Graphika

The authors examined the specific dynamics of the online Spanish-language conversation that opposes renewable energy sources. They wanted to understand how anti-renewable narratives spread through the online ecosystem of Spanish-speaking Internet users, the groups and individuals who seed and disseminate them, and the tactics these actors use. Their analysis found that the Spanish-language anti-renewables conversation is characterized by a range of narratives, and driven by actors from Spain, Latin America, and other ideologically aligned communities. They also uncovered insights into the dynamics and tactics used to spread this discourse across platforms. They first mapped the communities on X (formerly Twitter) most engaged with anti-renewables content, which revealed a network of majority right-leaning Spanish-speaking accounts, primarily focused on Spain, which consistently amplified anti-renewables narratives in the first six months of 2023. These accounts are not exclusively focused on environmental topics – instead, they are connected by ideological affinity and shared language, focused on advancing right-wing narratives, some of which occasionally involve pushing back against renewable energies. The volume of content produced by these communities correlates directly with extreme weather events or environmental policy updates featuring renewable energies.

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

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  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

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