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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #47 2023

Posted on 23 November 2023 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

How warped are we by fossil fuel dependency? Despite Russia's invasion of Ukraine, 35-40 million cubic meters per day of Russian natural gas are piped across Ukraine for European consumption every single day, right now. In order to secure European cooperation against Russian aggression, Ukraine must help to finance its own destruction at the hands of one of the world's largest petro-kleptocracies, assisting its attacker in marketing what has become a transcendently toxic geopolitical hazard. Publishing in Energy Policy, Ah-Voun, Chyong & Li describe how this tortuously ironic knot might be unraveled, in  Europe's energy security: From Russian dependence to renewable reliance. People keen on self-respect may appreciate the authors' contribution to showing how to crawl from a moral and ethical cesspit.

Those of us who have investigated the costs of upgrading to an EV or perhaps switching to a heat pump for residential use already know: it's often hard or impossible to show a reasonable "profit" from making such investments. Equally, economists steer us to discount the future because we can't take the future to the bank right now. It's an argument that can be vastly extended when we myopically ignore factors other than cash gripped in our greedy fingers. If Ray Galvin's article The economic losses of energy-efficiency renovation of Germany's older dwellings: The size of the problem and the financial challenge it presents holds water, "we're gonna need a bigger reason" (with apologies to Chief Brody)  than yet more money to justify modernizing aging housing stock. How about a pleasant planet? Reason enough?

Also publishing in Energy Policy and serving as a restorative antidote to Galvin's grim findings are Kantorowicz et al., with How to finance green investments? The role of public debt. We've a long history of solving hard problems with public finance including debt and revenue. Here the authors explore public preferences in that regard, and— taking that into account--how best to communicate options to those utlimately holding the reins: electorates. 

Details of how Florida is sinking into a tight spot, via two journals. The role of compound climate and weather extreme events in creating socio-economic impacts in south Florida, in Weather and Climate Extremes, and Living with water: Evolving adaptation preferences under increasing sea-level rise in Miami-Dade County, FL, USA via Climate Risk Managment. The latter article offers suggestions for coping, while the former indicates an avid audience for such advice. 

Putting later and now together as a bigger picture delivered through two journals: Future Global Population Exposure to Record-Breaking Climate Extremes in Earth's Future and Leaving Home: Cumulative Climate Shocks and Migration in Sub-Saharan Africa via Environmental and Resource Economics. Instead of "refugees" or "migrants," how about another term a bit less othering: "people trying to survive?" A few of us are creating a lot of real people facing real hardships not of their own making, with our helping hands only grudgingly extended if at all. We can do much better.  We  know how to ease this need, after all. Why not? 

We may complain about insurance premiums but silver linings to the pain of paying include safety belts, smoke detectors and many other good things universally adopted at least in part by nudges from underwriter self-interest. So far, the USDA Crop Insurance Program is failing to properly advise its clients, according to EWG's report Crop insurance pays farmers billions of dollars for weather-related losses closely linked to the climate crisis, from this week's government/NGO section:

Indemnities for the five most expensive weather-related causes of loss – drought, excess moisture and precipitation, hail, heat, and freeze – totaled over $118.75 billion between 2001 and 2022, representing 73 percent of total crop insurance payouts. The extreme weather events that triggered these payments are closely associated with the climate emergency. Yet the Crop Insurance Program does not encourage farmers to adapt to the extreme weather linked to the climate crisis. 

118 articles in 48 journals by 716 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Arctic Warming and Eurasian Cooling: Weakening and Reemergence, Xu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105180

Observed and Projected Changes in North Atlantic Seasonal Temperature Reduction and Their Drivers, Grist et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jc019837

Separating Direct Heat Flux Forcing and Freshwater Feedback on AMOC Change Under Global Warming, Wen et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105478

The Temperature Control of Cloud Adiabatic Fraction and Coverage, Lu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105831

Observations of climate change, effects

Acidification Of Northeastern USA Lakes From Rising Anthropogenic-Sourced Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Its Effects on Aluminum Speciation, Johannesson et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104957

Anthropogenic Weakening of the Atmospheric Circulation During the Satellite Era, Shrestha & Soden, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104784

Frequent marine heatwaves hidden below the surface of the global ocean, Sun et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-023-01325-w

Recent changes in the upper oceanic water masses over the Indian Ocean using Argo data, Shee et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-023-47658-9

Spatiotemporal Trends of Extreme Temperature Events Along the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau Transportation Corridor From 1981 to 2019 Based on Estimated Near-Surface Air Temperature, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd039040

Start&2023&4, Ivanov et al., Open Access pdf 10.3897/bdj.11.e100521.figure4

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Event attribution is ready to inform loss and damage negotiations, Noy et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01865-4

Limitations of reanalyses for detecting tropical cyclone trends, Emanuel, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01879-y

Reply to: Limitations of reanalyses for detecting tropical cyclone trends, Chand et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01880-5

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Asymmetry of AMOC Hysteresis in a State-Of-The-Art Global Climate Model, van Westen & Dijkstra, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106088

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Can Sub-Daily Multivariate Bias Correction of Regional Climate Model Boundary Conditions Improve Simulation of the Diurnal Precipitation Cycle?, Kim et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl104442

Evaluation of Dynamically Downscaled CMIP6-CCAM Models Over Australia, Chapman et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003548

Generalized Aerosol/Chemistry Interface (GIANT): A Community Effort to Advance Collaborative Science across Weather and Climate Models, Hodzic et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0013.1

Investigation of Added Value in Regional Climate Models for East Asian Storm Track Analysis, Byun et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd039167

Summertime Near-Surface Temperature Biases Over the Central United States in Convection-Permitting Simulations, Qin et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd038624

Cryosphere & climate change

CRYO, Duke et al., Ultramicroscopy Open Access 10.1016/j.ultramic.2013.10.006

Meta-analysis reveals responses of coccolithophores and diatoms to warming, Wang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106275

Modes of Antarctic tidal grounding line migration revealed by Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) laser altimetry, Freer et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-4079-2023

Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic ice shelf melting in conditions plausible by late 23rd century in a high-end scenario, Mathiot & Jourdain, Ocean Science Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-19-1595-2023

Wind-driven device for cooling permafrost, Qin et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-43375-z

Sea level & climate change

The Emerging Golden Age of Satellite Altimetry to Prepare Humanity for Rising Seas, Hamlington et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003673

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Geodynamically corrected Pliocene shoreline elevations in Australia consistent with midrange projections of Antarctic ice loss, Richards et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adg3035

North Atlantic meltwater during Heinrich Stadial 1 drives wetter climate with more atmospheric rivers in western North America, Oster et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adj2225

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

A 2 °C difference affecting the spatiotemporal distribution of small demersal fish assemblages in shallow tropical and subtropical waters of Western Taiwan, Chen et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-023-47300-8

A cloudy forecast for species distribution models: Predictive uncertainties abound for California birds after a century of climate and land-use change, Clare et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17019

Contrasting range changes of Bergenia (Saxifragaceae) species under future climate change in the Himalaya and Hengduan Mountains Region, Qiu et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04746-0

Enhanced growth resistance but no decline in growth resilience under long-term extreme droughts, Wang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17038

Experimental mining plumes and ocean warming trigger stress in a deep pelagic jellyfish, Stenvers et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-43023-6

Horizon scanning of potential threats to high-Arctic biodiversity, human health and the economy from marine invasive alien species: A Svalbard case study, Cottier?Cook et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17009

How tree stand phenology determines understorey senescence - a case study from boreal forests, Durand et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109807

Impacts of climate change on semi-natural alpine pastures productivity and floristic composition, Movedi et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-023-02158-4

Limiting resources for soil microbial growth in climate change simulation treatments in the Subarctic, Yuan et al., Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1002/ecy.4210

Nitrogen fixing shrubs advance the pace of tall-shrub expansion in low-Arctic tundra, Schore et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01098-5

Plant biodiversity responds more strongly to climate warming and anthropogenic activities than microbial biodiversity in the Qinghai–Tibetan alpine grasslands, Shangguan et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.14222

Projections of changes in the global distribution of shallow water ecosystems through 2100 due to climate change, Moki et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000298

Sea ice concentration decline in an important Adélie penguin molt area, Schmidt et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2306840120

Shift in algal blooms from micro- to macroalgae around China with increasing eutrophication and climate change, Feng et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17018

Shifts in population density centers of a hibernating mammal driven by conflicting effects of climate change and disease, Boyles et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17035

Spatial asynchrony and cross-scale climate interactions in populations of a coldwater stream fish, Valentine et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17029

Spatio-temporal shifts in British wild bees in response to changing climate, Wyver et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10705

The limits of stress-tolerance for zooplankton resting stages in freshwater ponds, Santos & Ebert, Oecologia Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00442-023-05478-8

Tracking lake drainage events and drained lake basin vegetation dynamics across the Arctic, Chen et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-43207-0

Within- and transgenerational stress legacy effects of ocean acidification on red abalone (Haliotis rufescens) growth and survival, Neylan et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17048

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Aquatic Carbon Export and Dynamics in Mountain Headwater Streams of the Western U.S., Clow et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jg007538

Attribution of individual methane and carbon dioxide emission sources using EMIT observations from space, Thorpe et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adh2391

Characterizing Performance of Freshwater Wetland Methane Models Across Time Scales at FLUXNET-CH4 Sites Using Wavelet Analyses, Zhang et al., Open Access pdf 10.1002/essoar.10512704.1

China's conservation and restoration of coastal wetlands offset much of the reclamation-induced blue carbon losses, Fan & Li, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17039

Climate warming and elevated CO2 alter peatland soil carbon sources and stability, Ofiti et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-43410-z

Climatic drivers of litterfall production and its components in two subtropical forests in South China: A 14-year observation, Liu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109798

Emergent Climatic Controls on Soil Carbon Turnover and Its Variability in Warm Climates, Huang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl105291

Higher global gross primary productivity under future climate with more advanced representations of photosynthesis, Knauer et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adh9444

Investigating Terrestrial Carbon Uptake Over India Using Multimodel Simulations of Gross Primary Productivity and Satellite-Based Biophysical Product, Uchale et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jg007468

Mycorrhizal type regulates trade-offs between plant and soil carbon in forests, Yang et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01864-5

Natural Vegetation Succession Under Climate Change and the Combined Effects on Net Primary Productivity, Zhang et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef003903

Precipitation consistently promotes, but temperature oppositely drives carbon fluxes in temperate and alpine grasslands in China, Liu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109811

Quantifying the drivers of terrestrial drought and water stress impacts on carbon uptake in China, Yang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109817

Reoxidation of Reduced Peat Organic Matter by Dissolved Oxygen: Combined Laboratory Column-Breakthrough Experiments and In-Field Push-Pull Tests, Obradovi? et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jg007640

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

Temperature dependence of spring carbon uptake in northern high latitudes during the past four decades, Zhu et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17043

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Identifying the Most (Cost-)Efficient Regions for CO2 Removal With Iron Fertilization in the Southern Ocean, Bach et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.167979670.07996683/v1

On error, uncertainty, and assumptions in calculating carbon dioxide removal rates by enhanced rock weathering in Kantola et al., 2023, Reershemius & Suhrhoff, Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17025

Towards just, responsible, and socially viable carbon removal: lessons from offshore DACCS research for early-stage carbon removal projects, Nawaz & Satterfield, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103633

Decarbonization

Minimizing the impacts of the ammonia economy on the nitrogen cycle and climate, Bertagni et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2311728120

Prospective life cycle assessment of sodium-ion batteries made from abundant elements, Wickerts et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/jiec.13452

Storage integrity during underground hydrogen storage in depleted gas reservoirs, Zeng et al., Earth Open Access 10.1016/j.earscirev.2023.104625

Geoengineering climate

Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Can Reduce Risks to Antarctic Ice Loss Depending on Injection Location and Amount, Goddard et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd039434

Aerosols

Anthropogenic amplification of biogenic secondary organic aerosol production, Zheng et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-8993-2023

Radiative forcing from aerosol–cloud interactions enhanced by large-scale circulation adjustments, Dagan et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-023-01319-8

Climate change communications & cognition

Extreme heat experience influences public support for local climate adaptation policies in Germany, Zanocco & Sousa-Silva, Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101759

Global warming vs. climate change frames: revisiting framing effects based on new experimental evidence collected in 30 European countries, Stefkovics & Zenovitz, Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03633-x

Local articulations of climate action in Swedish forest contexts, Reimerson et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103626

Making people aware of eco-innovations can decrease climate despair, Neale et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-023-03635-9

Media Representations and Farmer Perceptions: A Case Study of Reporting on Ocean Acidification and the Shellfish Farming Sector in British Columbia, Canada, Drope et al., Environmental Communication Open Access pdf 10.1080/17524032.2023.2280873

The role of iconic places, collective efficacy, and negative emotions in climate change communication, Waters et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103635

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Climate change mitigation through soil carbon sequestration in working lands: A reality check, Moinet et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17010

FACTORS AFFECTING WILLINGNESS TO ADOPT CLIMATE INSURANCE AMONG SMALLHOLDER FARMERS IN SRI LANKA, Aheeyar et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100575

Quantifying the impact of climate smart agricultural practices on soil carbon storage relative to conventional management, Schreiner-McGraw et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109812

Risk to rely on soil carbon sequestration to offset global ruminant emissions, Wang et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-43452-3

Weather information, farm-level climate adaptation and farmers' adaptive capacity: Examining the role of information and communication technologies, Chetri et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103630

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Diagnosing the ability of reservoir operations to meet hydropower production and fisheries needs under climate change in a western cordillera drainage basin, Larabi et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03632-y

Future Extreme Precipitation in Summer Will Become More Widespread in China Depending on Level of Warming, Yu et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef003413

Middle east warming in spring enhances summer rainfall over Pakistan, Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-43463-0

Process-driven susceptibility assessment of glacial lake outburst debris flow in the Himalayas under climate change, ZHOU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.11.002

Understanding the Contributions of Paleo-Informed Natural Variability and Climate Changes to Hydroclimate Extremes in the San Joaquin Valley of California, Gupta et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003909

Climate change economics

How to finance green investments? The role of public debt, Kantorowicz et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113899

The Green Climate Fund and private sector climate finance in the Global South, Kalinowski, Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2023.2276857

Climate change and the circular economy Climate change mitigation public policy research

Ambitious climate targets and emission reductions in cities: a configurational analysis, Roggero et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2023.2282488

Ambitious near-term decarbonization and direct air capture deployment in Latin America's net-zero goal, Adun et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2023.101338

Are European Blue Economy ambitions in conflict with European environmental visions?, Andersen et al., Ambio Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-023-01896-3

Energy trade stability of China: Policy options with increasing climate risks, Guo et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113858

How are climate policies assessed in emerging economies? A study of ex-ante policy appraisal in Brazil, China, and India, Qin et al., Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2023.2283174

Imagining circular carbon: A mitigation (deterrence) strategy for the petrochemical industry, Palm et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103640

Leveraging environmental assessment and environmental justice to deliver equitable, decarbonized built infrastructure, Greer, Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ad084b

Policy diffusion and the interdependent fuel taxes, Zhang, Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-023-03608-y

Strategies for gender mainstreaming in climate finance mobilisation in southern Africa, Gerhard et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000254

The economic losses of energy-efficiency renovation of Germany's older dwellings: The size of the problem and the financial challenge it presents, Galvin, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113905

The key determinants of individual greenhouse gas emissions in Germany are mostly domain-specific, Brandenstein et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-01092-x

Unintended consequences of urban shrinkage: Adverse impacts on local household carbon emissions, Wang et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101761

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Efforts in Different Economic Sectors of the Trinational Metropolitan Region Upper Rhine, Scholze et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100576

Human adaptation to climate change in the context of forests: a systematic review, Paige Fischer et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100573

Intervention: The invisible labor of climate change adaptation, Johnson et al., Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102769

Leaving Home: Cumulative Climate Shocks and Migration in Sub-Saharan Africa, Di Falco et al., Environmental and Resource Economics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-023-00826-x

Living with water: Evolving adaptation preferences under increasing sea-level rise in Miami-Dade County, FL, USA, Seeteram et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100574

The role of compound climate and weather extreme events in creating socio-economic impacts in south Florida, Ali et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100625

Climate change impacts on human health

Future Global Population Exposure to Record-Breaking Climate Extremes, Li et al., Earth's Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003786

Regimes of Soil Moisture–Wet-Bulb Temperature Coupling with Relevance to Moist Heat Stress, Kong & Huber, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0132.1

Climate change & geopolitics

Europe's energy security: From Russian dependence to renewable reliance, Ah-Voun et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113856

Other

Sunshine and solar power in the UK, Spellman & Bird, Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-023-04711-x

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Carbon ‘known not grown’: Reforesting Scotland, advanced measurement technologies, and a new frontier of mitigation deterrence, Stanley, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.103636

Enabling gender and social inclusion in climate and agriculture policy and planning through foresight processes: assessing challenges and leverage points, Marty et al., Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2023.2268042

Engaging with informality and the subaltern in overlooked cities: towards an agenda for climate change research in the Global South, Fattah & Walters, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2023.2277245

Reconsidering the lower end of long-term climate scenarios, Fujimori et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000318

Sensationalized soil carbon sequestration estimates excuse further climate inaction, McClelland & Woolf, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17012


Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Crop insurance pays farmers billions of dollars for weather-related losses closely linked to the climate crisis, Anne Schechinger, Environmental Working Group

Crop insurance payouts for losses associated with extreme weather have cost billions of dollars. Indemnities for the five most expensive weather-related causes of loss – drought, excess moisture and precipitation, hail, heat, and freeze – totaled over $118.75 billion between 2001 and 2022, representing 73 percent of total crop insurance payouts. The extreme weather events that triggered these payments are closely associated with the climate emergency. Yet the Crop Insurance Program does not encourage farmers to adapt to the extreme weather linked to the climate crisis. The author found that weather-related crop insurance indemnities have steeply risen over the past 22 years. As climate change continues to accelerate, it seems inevitable that, without meaningful reform, crop insurance costs will likewise grow unsustainably.

The 2023 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: the imperative for a health-centred response in a world facing irreversible harms, Romanell et al., The Lancet

The authors monitor the evolving impacts of climate change on health and the emerging health opportunities of climate action. At the current 10-year mean heating of 1·14°C above preindustrial levels, climate change is increasingly impacting the health and survival of people worldwide, and projections show these risks could worsen steeply with further inaction. However, with health matters gaining prominence in climate change negotiations, there are opportunities to deliver health-promoting climate change action and a safe and thriving future for all.

Prospects for Children in the Polycrisis, Byrne et al., UNICEF Innocenti – Global Office of Research and Foresight

The authors outline the polycrisis in which the world finds itself — multiple, simultaneous shocks with strong interdependencies, intensified in an ever-more integrated world — along with eight trends that will shape child rights and well-being in the coming year. For example, multiple factors will contribute to continued food and nutrition insecurity — with increasing calls for greater climate adaptation and food systems reform to prevent food poverty in children. The worsening energy crisis may cause immediate harm to children — but the focus on energy sustainability provides hope for a greener future.

Sun and wind for net zero - benchmarking renewables growth in South, Southeast and East Asia, Mentari Pujantoro and Mathis Rogner, Agora Energiewende

While recent global additions of wind and solar are encouraging, progress of renewable energy development in South, Southeast and East Asia has been insufficient. The share of solar and wind power in most countries in this region is below six percent today, despite the falling cost of clean energy technologies. Accelerating the deployment of wind and solar power within the next five years is crucial to meeting the region’s climate mitigation goals. To be aligned with a 1.5°C-compatible pathway, renewables in the region will need to supply 50% of total electricity by 2030, with 30% coming from wind and solar. This corresponds to annual capacity additions of at least 55 GW for solar and 20 GW for wind, compared to just 11.9 GW solar and 1.5 GW wind installed in 2021. Accelerating the integration of wind and solar power in the region requires a paradigm shift towards increased system flexibility and removal of policy, regulatory, and market barriers. Some solutions include de-risking mechanisms and accelerated permitting processes which can kick-start wind and solar deployment while supportive grid codes can aid in their system integration.

State Scorecard 2023, Think Microgrid

Microgrids have the potential to play a pivotal role at a transformative moment for the electric grid. As communities and consumers seek solutions for the resilience, climate, and equity challenges they face, the combination of advanced technology and market interest provides the opportunity for the widespread commercialization of microgrids. The U.S. Department of Energy has advanced a vision that by 2035, microgrids will be the core building block of a transformed grid where 30-50% of electricity generation comes from distributed resources. This vision, however, is not inevitable and there remain potentially existential barriers to microgrid commercialization. The authors present the policy and market conditions for microgrids in each state across five critical dimensions – deployment, regulation, resilience, market access, and equity. The resulting state scorecard is at once disappointing and encouraging. On the one hand, only a few states receive even a “B” and far too many receive a “C” or “D”. On the other hand, the results highlight how states can proactively and creatively begin to immediately take action to reform outdated policies and collaboratively move toward the coordinated action that this moment deserves.

LA100 Equity Strategies, Anderson et al., Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, National renewable Energy Laboratory and the University of California Los Angeles

The authors provide community-guided, data-driven strategies for increasing equity in Los Angeles’ transition to clean energy. Community-guided modeling and analysis identified that the current energy system is inequitable, lack of ability to pay energy-related costs and lack of financial capital limits communities’ access to electric vehicles, efficiency options, jobs, training, and entrepreneurship, without changes in rates and solar compensation, energy inequity will increase over time California laws constrain rate affordability and prevent the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power from providing robust low-income rate and bill assistance, and as the climate changes, universal access to home cooling will save lives.

Emissions Gap Report 2023. Broken Record. Temperatures hit new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions (again), United Nations Environment Programme

The authors provide an independent science-based assessment of the gap between the pledged greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions and the reductions required to align with the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, as well as opportunities to bridge this gap. COP 28 marks the conclusion of the first global stocktake under the Paris Agreement, held every five years to assess the global response to the climate crisis and chart a better way forward. This closely mirrors the objective of the Emissions Gap Report, and the authors aim to provide findings relevant to the concluding discussions under the global stocktake.

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
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How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."

The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

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Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

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