Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #52 2024
Posted on 26 December 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Trends in Oceanic Precipitation Characteristics Inferred From Shipboard Present-Weather Reports, 1950–2019, Tran & Petty, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres:
Although ship reports are susceptible to subjective interpretation, the inferred distributions of these phenomena are consistent with observations from other platforms such as satellites and coastal surface stations. These distributions highlight widespread 70-year trends that are often consistent across both annual and seasonal frequencies, with statistical significance at 95% confidence. The relative frequency of ship-reported drizzle has largely increased in the tropics annually and seasonally, with linear best-fit relative increases by as much as 15% per decade. Decreased relative frequencies have been observed in parts of the subtropics and at higher latitudes. Heavier precipitation has encompassed a growing fraction of non-drizzle precipitation reports over the subtropical North Pacific and Mediterranean. The relative frequency of thunderstorm reports has declined over the open Atlantic but show positive trends over the Mediterranean and the western Atlantic. The trends in relative frozen precipitation occurrence suggest a poleward retreat of areas receiving frozen precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere. Possible mechanisms for these ship-observed trends are discussed and placed in the context of the modeled effects of climate change on global precipitation.
Increase Asymmetric Warming Rates Between Daytime and Nighttime Temperatures Over Global Land During Recent Decades, Liu et al., Geophysical Research Letters:
Global climate change is causing uneven warming patterns, which significantly affect how ecosystems exchange water and carbon. One important way to understand this is through the diurnal temperature range (DTR), which measures the difference between daytime and nighttime temperatures. In this study, we examined DTR changes globally from 1961 to 2022 using a method called ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD). We discovered that the overall trend in DTR reversed around 1988, changing from a decline to an increase, which affected nearly half of the world's land areas. Subsequent to the reversal, the most pronounced increases were observed in temperate regions, whereas tropical areas exhibited a more subdued rate of rise. Interestingly, we found that the rate of increase in DTR is stronger in southern latitudes compared to northern latitudes.
Near-term carbon dioxide removal deployment can minimize disruptive pace of decarbonization and economic risks towards United States’ net-zero goal, Adun et al., Communications Earth & Environment:
Deep decarbonization is essential for achieving the Paris Agreement goals, and carbon dioxide removal is required to address residual emissions and achieve net-zero targets. However, the implications of delaying the deployment of removal technologies remain unclear. We quantify how different carbon removal methods and their deployment timing affect achieving net zero emissions by 2050 in the United States. Our findings show that postponing novel technologies until mid-century forces accelerated decarbonization of energy-intensive sectors, reducing residual emissions by at least 12% compared with near-term deployment of carbon dioxide removal. This delay increases transition costs, requiring carbon prices 59–79% higher than with near-term deployment. It also heightens the risk of premature fossil fuel retirement in the electricity sector, leading to 128–220 billion USD losses compared to gradual scale up starting now. A balanced, near-term co-deployment of novel removal methods mitigates risks associated with relying on a single approach and addresses sustainability and scalability concerns.
A New Heat Stress Index for Climate Change Assessment, Lanzante, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society:
The heat index (HI), based on Steadman’s model of thermoregulation, estimates heat stress on the human body from ambient temperature and humidity. It has been used widely both in applications, such as the issuance of heat advisories by the National Weather Service (NWS) and for research on possible changes in the future due to climate change. However, temperature/humidity combinations that exceed the applicable range of the model are becoming more common due to climate warming. Recent work by Lu and Romps has produced an extended heat index (EHI), which is valid for values outside the range of the original HI. For these values, the HI can underestimate the EHI by a considerable amount. This work utilizes observed data from 15 U.S. weather stations along with bias-adjusted output from a climate model to explore the spatial and temporal aspects of the disparity between the HI and the EHI from the recent past out to the end of the twenty-first century. The underestimate of human heat stress by the HI is found to be the largest for the most extreme cases (5°–10°C), which are also the most impactful. Conditions warranting NWS excessive heat warnings are found to increase dramatically from less than 5% of days historically at most stations to more than 90% in the future at some stations.
Climate extremes and risks: links between climate science and decision-making, Sillmann et al., Frontiers in Climate
The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) envisions a future where actionable climate information is universally accessible, supporting decision makers in preparing for and responding to climate change. In this perspective, we advocate for enhancing links between climate science and decision-making through a better and more decision-relevant understanding of climate impacts. The proposed framework comprises three pillars: climate science, impact science, and decision-making, focusing on generating seamless climate information from sub-seasonal, seasonal, decadal to century timescales informed by observed climate events and their impacts.
From this weeks government/NGO section:
Balancing Act. Assessing Risks and Governance of Climate Intervention, Porambo et al., Applied Physics Laboratory, Johns Hopkins University
Nations, organizations, and individuals may soon look to climate intervention, also known as geoengineering, as a means to avoid the most severe effects of climate change. Despite the hope that climate intervention may prevent the increasingly dire climate change projections from becoming reality, the efficacy of many climate intervention methods remains uncertain. Moreover, many methods pose their own risks to the environment, global ecosystems, and critical human systems. These uncertainties and risks, when combined with the relatively few barriers to unilateral deployment for many methods, drive the need for national and international regulation of climate intervention research, testing, development, and deployment. The authors summarize the effects of two controversial climate intervention methods—stratospheric aerosol injection and ocean iron fertilization—on national security, considering their abilities to both stop and reverse the effects of climate change and the possible direct, unintended environmental changes. It then examines governance principles for climate intervention from a combined national security and technical perspective, deriving principles for addressing climate intervention research, governance, and possible use and making recommendations for the path forward.
Producer perceptions of environmental sustainability and climate change. 2024 national poll of farmers and ranchers, Leger, Farmers for Climate Solutions
When farmers and ranchers were asked an open-ended question—at the very beginning of the poll—about the top challenge for the agricultural sector for the next decade, climate change was the number one answer. 76% of farmers and ranchers report being impacted by severe weather in the past five years. Producers are worried that climate change will bring more restrictive policies and regulations, reduce income and yields, and negatively affect their mental health. 87% of farmers and ranchers consider themselves good stewards of the land, and 47% feel they can do more to improve environmental outcomes in their operations. Producers want a range of supports to adopt high resilience, low emissions practices, including technical support and training, financial incentives, risk management tools, and price premiums for sustainable products.
139 articles in 52 journals by 858 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Estimated human-induced warming from a linear temperature and atmospheric CO2 relationship, Jarvis & Forster, Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-024-01580-5
Impact of Canadian wildfires on aerosol and ice clouds in the early-autumn Arctic, Sato et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107893
Irreversible changes in the sea surface temperature threshold for tropical convection to CO2 forcing, Park et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01751-7
Links Between Internal Variability and Forced Climate Feedbacks: The Importance of Patterns of Temperature Variability and Change, Davis et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112774
Reductions in atmospheric levels of non-CO2 greenhouse gases explain about a quarter of the 1998-2012 warming slowdown, Su et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01723-x
Observations of climate change, effects
20th century climate warming and human disturbance triggered high aquatic production and strong water-column mixing in maar Lake Xiaolongwan, northeastern China, Tu et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2024.100442
Assessment of the global ocean heat content and North Atlantic heat transport over 1993–2020, Liu et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access 10.1038/s41612-024-00860-6
Growing aridity poses threats to global land surface, Sardans et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01935-1
Impacts of changing atmospheric circulations and declining spring Barents Sea ice on more frequent summer heatwave in Southern China, Wang et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107874
Increase Asymmetric Warming Rates Between Daytime and Nighttime Temperatures Over Global Land During Recent Decades, Liu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112832
Unraveling the roles of jet streams on the unprecedented hot July in Western Europe in 2022, Li et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access 10.1038/s41612-024-00880-2
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
A new model to estimate daytime net surface radiation under all sky conditions, Foyo-Moreno et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107886
Estimation of Break and Noise Variance and the Maximum Distance of Climate Stations Allowed in Relative Homogenisation of Annual Temperature Anomalies, Lindau, International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8724
Monthly High-Resolution Historical Climate Data for North America Since 1901, Wang et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8726
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
An intensification of surface Earth’s energy imbalance since the late 20th century, Li et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01802-z
Association between heat and upper urinary tract stones morbidity and medical costs: A study in the subtropical humid climate zone, Yang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.001
Changes of the trace metals in ice core during 1915?2016 in coastal eastern Antarctica, Liu et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.003
Characteristics of life-cycle carbon dioxide emissions of arterial highway maintenance and the influencing factors, Wang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.009
Comparison of bulk snow density measurements using different methods, Su et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.005
Corrigendum to “Winter extreme precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau influenced by Arctic sea ice on interdecadal timescale” [Adv. Clim. Change Res. 15 (2024) 42–51], Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.004
Evaluation and simulation of terrestrial latent heat flux globally: A collaborative effort utilizing CMIP6 climate models and eddy covariance observations, Tian et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110371
Evaluation of the performance of WRF9km in simulating climate over the upper Yellow River Basin, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.12.003
Global assessment of hydrogen production from the electrical grid aiming the Brazilian transportation sector, Silva Junior & da Silva, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101626
Hourly land surface temperature retrieval over the Tibetan Plateau using Geo-LightGBM framework: Fusion of Himawari-8 satellite, ERA5 and site observations, Liu et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.06.007
How China's transport sector responds to carbon neutrality target: A study from a multi-model comparison analysis, Yan et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101627
Impact of ambient temperatures on Alzheimer's disease and other dementia mortality among elderly patients aged 60 years and older in China, Zhang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.12.002
Impact of current and historical climate shocks on crop diversification in Zambia: Insights from household- and district-level observations, Wang et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100683
Impact of extreme seasonal drought on ecosystem carbon?water coupling across China, Huang & Zhai, Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.001
Impacts of Climate Change on Arctic Winter Cyclones, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2024jd041503
Investigating the dynamics and interactions of surface features on Pine Island Glacier using remote sensing and deep learning, Zhu et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.011
Monitoring ground temperature and deformation of the cast-in-place footings in permafrost regions on the Qinghai?Tibet Plateau, Wang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.002
More than three-fold increase in compound soil and air dryness across Europe by the end of 21st century, Shekhar et al., Open Access 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3143908/v2
Projected phenological shifts in stratification and overturning of ice-covered Northern Hemisphere lakes, Huang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01953-z
Response of the Mediterranean Sea Surface Circulation at Various Global Warming Levels: A Multi-Model Approach, Parras?Berrocal et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111695
Role of anthropogenic forcing in Antarctic sea ice variability simulated in climate models, Morioka et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-54485-7
The Effect of Pseudo-Global Warming on the Weather-Climate System of Africa in a Convection-Permitting Model, Núñez Ocasio & Dougherty Dougherty, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112341
Thermal and hydrological processes in permafrost slope wetlands affect thermosyphon embankment stability, Tai et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.010
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
CARIB12: a regional Community Earth System Model/Modular Ocean Model 6 configuration of the Caribbean Sea, Seijo-Ellis et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-8989-2024
Inter-Model Uncertainty in Projecting Precipitation Changes Over Central Asia Under Global Warming, Yao et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111989
Lightweight climate models could be useful for assessing aviation mitigation strategies and moving beyond the CO2-equivalence metrics debate, Arriolabengoa et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01888-5
The Source of the Uncertainties in CMIP6 Model's Projections of the Summertime Northwest Pacific Subtropical High, Yang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2024jd041854
Cryosphere & climate change
Characteristics of Musta Glacier surges and their responses to climate change between 1976 and 2023, GAO et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.12.007
Greenland Ice Sheet Elevation Change From CryoSat-2 and ICESat-2, Ravinder et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110822
Record-low Antarctic sea ice in 2023 increased ocean heat loss and storms, Josey et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-024-08368-y
Sea level & climate change
Salt-wedge estuary's response to rising sea level, reduced discharge, and Nature-Based Solution, Verri et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1408038
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Late Miocene-early Pliocene hydroclimate evolution of the western Altiplano, northern Chile: Implications for aridification trends under warming climate conditions, Mentzer et al., Global and Planetary Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104674
Response of atmospheric CO2 changes to the Abyssal Pacific overturning during the last glacial cycle, Zhang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104636
The Hunt for Holocene Abrupt Climate Change, Scroxton & McKay, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000547
Were early Archean carbonate factories major carbon sinks on the juvenile Earth?, Xiang et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-5653-2024
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Effects of Vegetation Restoration Type on Soil Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Associated Microbial Regulation on the Loess Plateau, Zhou et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70688
Estimating a physiological threshold to oxygen and temperature from marine monitoring data reveals challenges and opportunities for forecasting distribution shifts, Indivero et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1111/ecog.07413
Evaluating Water Use Efficiency and CO? Absorption in Plants under Rising Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Levels, Boretti, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar 10.1016/j.jastp.2024.106409
Even protected seaweeds must face a warming ocean: Sea surface temperatures trigger tissue bleaching and breakdown in the unique giant Irish moss (Chondrus crispus), Gibbons et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106907
Freeze-thaw process boosts penguin-derived NH3 emissions and enhances climate-relevant particles formation in Antarctica, Tian et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access 10.1038/s41612-024-00873-1
High- and low-temperature stress responses of Porites lutea from the relatively high-latitude region of the South China Sea, Huang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106858
How does the coral microbiome mediate its natural host fitness under climate stress conditions? Physiological, molecular, and biochemical mechanisms, Abdelghany et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106920
Long-term warming and acidification interaction drives plastic acclimation in the diatom Pseudo-nitzschia multiseries, Sun et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106901
Major distribution shifts are projected for key rangeland grasses under a high-emission scenario in East Africa at the end of the 21st century, Messmer et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01731-x
Model-based impact analysis of climate change and land-use intensification on trophic networks, Neumann et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1111/ecog.07533
Mortality Patterns and Recovery Challenges in Millepora alcicornis after mass bleaching event on Northeast Brazilian Reefs, Vidal et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106864
Performance of Acanthina monodon juveniles under long-term exposure to predicted climate change conditions, Paredes-Molina et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106855
Quantifying the Evolution of Extreme Drought Under Climate Change and Its Impacts on Vegetation Productivity Over the Hai River Basin of China, Yao et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8727
Recurrent marine heatwaves compromise the reproduction success and long-term viability of shallow populations of the Mediterranean gorgonian Eunicella singularis, Sarda et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106822
The trade-offs associated with the adaptions of marine microalgae to high CO2 and warming, Liang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106853
Winners and Losers From Climate Change: An Analysis of Climate Thresholds for Tree Growth and Survival for Roughly 150 Species Across the Contiguous United States, Clark et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17597
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Annual grass invasions and wildfire deplete ecosystem carbon storage by >50% to resistant base levels, Maxwell et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01795-9
Effects of fire intensity on carbon dioxide exchange in an arctic dry heath tundra, Xu & Ambus Lambæk, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110362
GHG emissions intensity analysis. Case study: Bioethanol plant with cogeneration and partial CO2 recovery, Galván et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101598
Interactive effects of management and temperature anomalies on CO2 fluxes recorded over 18 years in a temperate upland grassland system, Winck et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110343
Predicting CO2 and CH4 fluxes and their seasonal variations in a subarctic wetland under two shared socioeconomic pathway climate scenarios, Zhao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110359
Rethinking microbial carbon use efficiency in soil models, Allison, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02217-6
Seasonal CO2 amplitude in northern high latitudes, Liu et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-024-00600-7
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Study of atmospheric CH4, CO2 and N2O at Waliguan WMO/GAW global station: Time series trend, seasonal variation, and attribution analysis association with meteorological factors, Wei et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.120994
The presence of the Tibetan Plateau lowers atmospheric CO2 levels via the Atlantic-Pacific carbon seesaw, Du et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104681
Vapor pressure deficit and temperature variability drive future changes to carbon sink stability in China’s terrestrial ecosystems, Zhou et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1518578
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Advancing the frontiers of CO2 geological storage: A statistical and computational perspective, Li et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104906
National Forest Restoration Projects in China: Cost-Efficiency, and Trade-Off Between Carbon Sequestration and Water Consumption, Zhang et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004976
Strong El Niño and La Niña precipitation—sea surface temperature sensitivity under a carbon removal scenario, Liu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01958-8
Decarbonization
Fuel shifts reduce most of the greenhouse gas emissions from transportation in the United States, Horesh & Quinn, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01924-4
Geoengineering climate
Responses of microbial metabolic rates to non-equilibrated silicate- versus calcium-based ocean alkalinity enhancement, Marín-Samper et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-5707-2024
Climate change communications & cognition
A meta-ethnography of global research on the mental health and emotional impacts of climate change on older adults, Marinova et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102511
Americans’ support for climate justice, Carman et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103976
Climate change perceptions in China: the relationship between environmental mental imagery and environmental values, beliefs, and behaviors, Yangli et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102513
Predicting the Performance of Facebook Advertisements About Climate Change Using Self-report Data, Goldberg et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2024.2441936
Worry’s Clout: Concern, Not Positive Affectivity, Drives Climate Activism, Bechtoldt & Schermelleh-Engel, Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102517
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Adaptation of rice to climate change in high-latitude regions of China: Will price expectation make differences?, Yu & Tian, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2442590
Can crop production agglomeration reduce carbon emissions?—empirical evidence from China, Han et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1516238
Feasibility analysis of expanding winter rapeseed northwards in China, Fan et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110297
Forest fertilization transiently increases soil CO2 efflux in young Norway spruce stands in Sweden, Håkansson et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110287
Lower methane and nitrous oxide emissions from rice-aquaculture co-culture systems than from rice paddies in southeast China,, Fang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109540
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Past and Future Climate-Driven Changes of Agricultural Land in Central Europe, Torbenson et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112363
Process-based modeling framework for sustainable irrigation management at the regional scale: Integrating rice production, water use, and greenhouse gas emissions, Bo et al., Open Access 10.5194/gmd-2024-212
Seasonal patterns of CO2 exchange in a tropical intensively managed pasture in Southeastern Brazil, Bianchini et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110324
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Comparing extreme rainfall exposure to climate-focused planning efforts: A mixed methods analysis in the northeastern United States, Miller et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102258
Simulation and Future Projections of Reference Evapotranspiration in Egypt, Sobh et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8730
Trends in Oceanic Precipitation Characteristics Inferred From Shipboard Present-Weather Reports, 1950–2019, Tran & Petty, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd041705
Vegetation Greening Mitigates the Impacts of Increasing Extreme Rainfall on Runoff Events, Ficklin et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004661
Climate change mitigation public policy research
A just energy transition is not just a transition: Framing energy justice for a quantitative assessment, Rios-Ocampo et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103900
A low-carbon electricity transition for small island developing states: The case of Mauritius, Jaggeshar et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101638
An Integrated Assessment of Technological Pathways and Socioeconomic Impacts for Sustainable Power System Transition in Indonesia, Purwanto et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.11.005
Assessing the effectiveness of energy policies in accelerating renewable energy-based mini-grid deployment: A case study, Nyarko et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101631
Assessing the energy efficiency gains of climate legislation: a global perspective, Hu et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2444456
Climate change disclosure and carbon performance of Chinese listed companies: exploring the moderating effects of climate governance and corporate environmental governance, Zhang, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1469899
Decarbonising the rental housing market: An experimental analysis of tenants’ preferences for clean energy features of residential buildings, Reidl & Wüstenhagen, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114472
Emissions trading systems: Trading removals?, La Hoz Theuer et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2434092
Energy storage and clean energy transitions, Feng & Lazkano Bektas Lill Omojola Bae Mammadzade Karavias Yang Liu, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114447
Evaluating the role of the oil and gas industry in energy transition in oil-producing countries: A systematic literature review, Dongo & Relvas, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103905
Evidence on local climate policies achieving emission reduction targets by 2030, Franco et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102242
Fossil fuel subsidy reform, distributive justice and civil unrest, Belgioioso & Newman, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103868
Indian power sector decarbonization: Net-zero by 2050 or 2070, Evans et al., International Journal of Radiation Oncology*Biology*Physics Open Access 10.1016/j.ijrobp.2006.07.473
Market perspective on climate actions and clean energy transition, Xia, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114470
Navigating climate policy: The influence of lobbying trends and narratives in Europe, Errichiello et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103974
Near-term carbon dioxide removal deployment can minimize disruptive pace of decarbonization and economic risks towards United States’ net-zero goal, Adun et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01916-4
Policy preference for a net zero carbon economy: Results from a US national survey, Fikru, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114479
Public perceptions of mineral criticality and preferences for energy transition strategies in the United States, Fikru & Koppera, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01944-0
Speeding-up wind energy developments: Exploring notions of acceleration and justice in regions within Germany and the Netherlands, Hielscher et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103909
The impact of emissions trading systems on technological innovation for climate change mitigation: a systematic review, Chen et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2443464
The landscape of city-level GHG emission accounts in Africa, Liu et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access 10.1111/jiec.13562
The UK's border carbon leakage trilemma, Lydgate & Winters, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114393
Unpacking the politics of Nature-based Solutions governance: Making space for transformative change, Hafferty et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103979
“We don't have time”: How imaginaries of urgent energy system change marginalise locally driven pathways, Unsworth et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103888
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
A systematic review of justice integration to climate resilience: Current trends and future directions, Pellerey et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102250
Climate change impact on the architecture and built environment dwellers’ well-being in Niger Delta Region: a systematic review, Dimuna et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1498938
Giving up land? Explaining planned retreat in times of climate change, Pot et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2437422
Redefining maladaptation to climate change: a conceptual examination of the unintended consequences of adaptation strategies on ecological-human systems, Rouzaneh & Savari, Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1506295
Stabilising CO2 concentration as a channel for global disaster risk mitigation, Lu & Tambakis, Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-024-79437-5
Climate change impacts on human health
A New Heat Stress Index for Climate Change Assessment, Lanzante, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-24-0030.1
Efficient and Accurate Shortcuts for Calculating the Extended Heat Index, Lanzante, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-24-0081.1
Local communities’ perceptions on malaria prevalence in the face of climate change in Chimanimani District, Zimbabwe, Manyangadze et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2435474
Physiological response to exercise in the heat: Implications for risk mitigation and adaptation, Criddle et al., Temperature 10.1080/23328940.2024.2431402
Virginia Heat Watch: Collaboration to assess climate vulnerability at local to regional scales, Lookingbill et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102252
Climate change & geopolitics
ASEAN’s climate change mitigation and adaptation measures: abandoning stagnant policy responses, Putra, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1488560
Other
Nutrient management offsets the effect of deoxygenation and warming on nitrous oxide emissions in a large US estuary, Tang et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adq5014
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Actions before agreement, Columbia Law Review Open Access 10.2307/1111574
Climate extremes and risks: links between climate science and decision-making, Sillmann et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1499765
Climate scientists gird for Trump administration, Voosen, Science 10.1126/science.adv4100
Editorial for the 30th anniversary special issue: Decarbonisation for sustainable development, Urmee et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101635
Engaging young generations in climate research, Cheng, Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02226-5
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Sustainable Aviation Fuel Blending and Logistics, Kristi Moriarty and Robert McCormick, National Renewable Energy Laboratory
The authors updated a previous report to address current market needs and account for more production plants coming online, as well as more commitments from the aviation industry. The authors focus on the United States market.
Fast, scalable, clean, and cheap enough. How off-grid solar microgrids can power the AI race, Baranko et al., Scale Microgrid and PACES
Could off-grid solar microgrids in the US be big enough, fast enough, and cheap enough to be a compelling near-term alternative to building more natural gas power plants to meet near-term AI energy needs? If yes, what would that look like and how would one do it? Off-grid solar microgrids are categorically faster than new grid interconnections (5+year queues) as well as off-grid colocated gas turbines (3+ year lead times). Off-grid solar microgrids today are near cost parity with natural gas and cheaper than other clean alternatives. Opportunities for further cost reduction are significant. Off-grid solar microgrids are enormously scalable, with >1,200 GW of data center potential in the US Southwest alone. Between 0.4 billion tons (30 GW new data centers) and 4.1 billion tons (300 GW new data centers) of CO? emissions could be avoided between now and 2030 if every new AI data center was built using the 90% solar configuration.
2024 Long-Term Reliability Assessment, North American Electric Reliability Corporation
The authors find that most of the North American bulk power system faces mounting resource adequacy challenges over the next 10 years as surging demand growth continues and thermal generators announce plans for retirement. New solar PV, battery, and hybrid resources continue to flood interconnection queues, but completion rates are lagging behind the need for new generation. Furthermore, the performance of these replacement resources is more variable and weather-dependent than the generators they are replacing. As a result, less overall capacity, particularly dispatchable capacity, is being added to the system than what was projected and needed to meet future demand. The trends point to critical reliability challenges facing the industry: satisfying escalating energy growth, managing generator retirements, and accelerating resource and transmission development.
Tropical Cyclone Chido, Grantham Institute, Imperial College London
The IRIS model estimates that climate change uplifted the intensity of a tropical cyclone like “Chido" from a Category 3 to a Category 4. A “Chido” type storm is about +40% more likely in the 2024 climate compared to a pre-industrial baseline. In a future +2.6°C warmer world we estimate TC Chido will be a further +26% more likely compared to now.
Breathe easy. Household electrification as a public health intervention to improve outdoor air quality, Kanj et al., Rewiring America
The authors model the health benefits of electrifying America’s households through upgrading space heating, water heating, and clothes drying using heat pump technology. Collectively, these systems currently output more than half a million tons of fine particulate matter outdoors each year through burning fossil fuels at home and electricity consumption from existing, inefficient electric appliances. The authors use building energy modeling, open-source data on air pollutants, and air quality modeling to quantify the potential for population health benefits of electrifying America’s households.
Progress in Diversifying the Global Solar PV Supply Chain, Romain Zissler, Renewable Energy Institute
The author analyzes progress in diversifying the global solar PV supply chain. He finds that efforts to expand crystalline silicon manufacturing in the United States, Europe, Southeast Asia, and India, as well as improvements in recycling and the emergence of perovskite – pioneered by Japan, make the solar PV supply chain more robust.
Next to Fall: The Climate-Driven Insurance Crisis is Here - and Getting Worse, Staff, Senate Budget Committee
The collected data confirm that it is climate change that is driving increasing non-renewal rates, as the counties that are most exposed to climate-related risks, such as wildfires or hurricanes, are the counties seeing the highest non-renewal insurance rates. The data reveal that Florida, Louisiana, California, and Texas are not the only places experiencing spiking non-renewal rates and increasing premiums. Florida has the highest average statewide non-renewal rate; Texas is not even in the top ten. Southern New England, the Carolinas, New Mexico, and counties in the Northern Rockies, Oklahoma, and Hawaii all suffer from high non-renewal rates, demonstrating that the full panoply of climate-related effects, hurricanes, wildfires, severe convective storms, hail, extreme precipitation, and sea level rise, are all destabilizing insurance markets. The non-renewal data that was e obtained confirms a correlation between rising non-renewal rates and rising premiums. This underscores that climate change has become a major cost-of-living issue for families across the country.
Producer perceptions of environmental sustainability and climate change. 2024 national poll of farmers and ranchers, Leger, Farmers for Climate Solutions
When farmers and ranchers were asked an open-ended question—at the very beginning of the poll—about the top challenge for the agricultural sector for the next decade, climate change was the number one answer. 76% of farmers and ranchers report being impacted by severe weather in the past five years. Producers are worried that climate change will bring more restrictive policies and regulations, reduce income and yields, and negatively affect their mental health. 87% of farmers and ranchers consider themselves good stewards of the land, and 47% feel they can do more to improve environmental outcomes in their operations. Producers want a range of supports to adopt high resilience, low emissions practices, including technical support and training, financial incentives, risk management tools, and price premiums for sustainable products.
Draft, Energy Storage Strategy and Roadmap, Office of Electricity, Department of Energy
The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced the release of its draft Energy Storage Strategy and Roadmap (SRM), and update to the Energy Storage Grand Challenge Roadmap (December 2020). This draft Energy Storage SRM updates the ESGC 2020 Roadmap (the original energy storage strategic plan) in consideration of the progress made across the energy storage sector since 2020, as well as to reflect DOE’s recent activities in support of its energy storage mission and vision. The draft Energy Storage SRM represents a significantly expanded strategic revision to the original ESGC 2020 Roadmap. This SRM outlines actions that implement the strategic objectives facilitating safe, beneficial, and timely storage deployment; empower decision makers by providing data-driven information analysis; and leverage the country’s global leadership to advance durable engagement throughout the innovation ecosystem.
Balancing Act. Assessing Risks and Governance of Climate Intervention, Porambo et al., Applied Physics Laboratory, Johns Hopkins University
Nations, organizations, and individuals may soon look to climate intervention, also known as geoengineering, as a means to avoid the most severe effects of climate change. Despite the hope that climate intervention may prevent the increasingly dire climate change projections from becoming reality, the efficacy of many climate intervention methods remains uncertain. Moreover, many methods pose their own risks to the environment, global ecosystems, and critical human systems. These uncertainties and risks, when combined with the relatively few barriers to unilateral deployment for many methods, drive the need for national and international regulation of climate intervention research, testing, development, and deployment. The authors summarize the effects of two controversial climate intervention methods—stratospheric aerosol injection and ocean iron fertilization—on national security, considering their abilities to both stop and reverse the effects of climate change and the possible direct, unintended environmental changes. It then examines governance principles for climate intervention from a combined national security and technical perspective, deriving principles for addressing climate intervention research, governance, and possible use and making recommendations for the path forward.
The Balancing Act: Risks and Benefits of Integrating Permanent Carbon Removals into the EU ETS, The Clean Air Task Force and Concito
The authors analyze and provide recommendations to address potential impacts on 1) the functioning and integrity of the European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and 2) short and long-term demand for permanent carbon removals, if permanent carbon removals are to be integrated into the EU ETS as part of the 2026 review of the system. The authors examine the integration of permanent carbon removals into the EU ETS through four approaches including without restrictions, with a maintained emissions cap, with supply controls, and via an intermediary institution.
2024 - 2028 Delaware State Energy Plan, Delaware State Energy Office DNREC Division of Climate, Coastal and Energy
The plan maps out strategies that Deleware can deploy to meet the state’s energy and emissions reduction goals while maintaining a reliable and resilient grid and increasing energy justice in disadvantaged communities.
Maine Pathways to 2040: Analysis and Insights, Murphy et al., Maine Governor’s Energy Office
The draft plan presents actionable and affordable strategies to meet the 2040 target, such as diversifying energy sources in Maine, stabilizing electricity rates, reducing emissions, and supporting jobs and economic investment. The completed plan will be a new, comprehensive, integrated energy plan consistent with Maine law to meet the Governor’s 100% clean electricity by 2040 directive and identify economy-wide decarbonization options looking beyond 2040. It will also inform planning for future investment opportunities, including the pursuit and deployment of federal and other funds, by entities within Maine to continue to ensure Maine can capitalize on such opportunities.
Exploring the impact of deglaciation on fault slip in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, Colorado, USA, Cecilia Hurtado and Sean Gallen, Colorado State University
Few natural examples exist where climate’s influence on tectonics is clear. Based on a study of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains in southern Colorado, the authors argue that climate-driven changes in ice loads affected spatial and temporal slip patterns on the range-front normal fault.
Cloud Seeding Technology: Assessing Effectiveness and Other Challenges, Howard et al., United States Government Accountability Office
Cloud seeding may increase water availability and result in economic, environmental, and human health benefits. In the studies GAO reviewed, estimates of the additional precipitation ranged from 0 to 20 percent. However, it is difficult to evaluate the effects of cloud seeding due to limitations of effectiveness research. The authors identified challenges to the use and development of cloud seeding, including reliable information on the conduct of optimal, effective cloud seeding and its benefits and effects. Without such information, operations will be less effective and the return on funding investments is unclear; cloud seeding operations can only enhance precipitation when the right kind of clouds are present, which limits opportunities for success, and existing research that the authors reviewed, while limited to a handful of recent studies, suggests silver iodide does not pose an environmental or health concern at current levels. However, it is not known whether more widespread use of silver iodide would affect public health or the environment.
Flood Underinsurance, Amornsiripanitch et al., Federal Resrve Bank Philadelphia
Using data on expected flood damage and National Flood Insurance Program policies, we estimate annual flood risk protection gaps and underinsurance among single-family residences in the contiguous United States. Annually, 70 percent ($17.1 billion) of total flood losses would be uninsured. Underinsurance, defined as protection gaps among properties with positive flood risk and incentives to purchase full flood insurance coverage, totals $15.7 billion annually. Eighty percent of at-risk households are underinsured, and average underinsurance is $7,208 per year. Underinsurance persists both inside and outside the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s special flood hazard areas, suggesting frictions in the provision of risk information and regulatory compliance. Seventy percent of uninsured households would benefit from purchasing flood insurance, even as prevailing prices rise. Household beliefs about climate risks are strongly correlated with underinsurance.
Hot Rocks and H2: Modeling the Role of Emerging Technologies in the Electricity Sector, Jesse Jenkins, Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering Department, Princeton University
In this dissertation, the author presents work using system modeling methods to explore the role and impacts of two emerging technologies - enhanced geothermal power and hydrogen electrolysis - in a decarbonizing electricity sector.
Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions
We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light" but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance.
- Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.
- Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
- The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway.
How is New Research assembled?
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.
The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
- Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically.
- Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.
A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."
The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.
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