Arguments
This article by Annalisa Bracco, Professor of Ocean and Climate Dynamics, Georgia Institute of Technology is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
(Photo credit: Automotive Rhythms / Some people thought Juliana Dockery and her husband Sean were being impractical when they bought an electric vehicle in 2022. Why? Like one in five Americans, they live in a rural area — Grass Valley, California — where charging stations are few and far between. And with a bustling household including three kids, it would be their family’s only car.
Just 17% of rural Americans live less than a mile from a public EV charger, while 60% of urbanites do. So it was understandable to wonder: Could they keep their car charged without drama? Would they still be able to manage longer-distance drives, like chaperoning out-of-town school field trips for their kids?
Two years later, Juliana Dockery answers with confidence: yes and yes. Like most EV drivers, Dockery charges her car mostly at home and uses apps to plan her longer trips around charging station availability. So even though she’s excited that more charging infrastructure is on the way, she says the family has already been able to get everywhere they need to go.
In addition to reducing their carbon footprint, she said the family has benefited financially by ditching their old gas-powered Honda Fit and transitioning to the Volkswagen ID4.
The Dockerys are not alone in recognizing the advantages of moving to an EV. A new report by Coltura, a nonprofit working to speed up the shift from gasoline and diesel to cleaner alternatives, sheds light on how EV adoption can benefit rural communities in particular.
What’s next after Supreme Court curbs regulatory power: More focus on laws’ wording, less on their goals
Posted on 8 July 2024 by Guest Author
This article by Robin Kundis Craig, Professor of Law, University of Kansas is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Federal Chevron deference is dead. On June 28, 2024, in a 6-3 vote, the Supreme Court overturned the 40-year-old legal tenet that when a federal statute is silent or ambiguous about a particular regulatory issue, courts should defer to the implementing agency’s reasonable interpretation of the law.
The reversal came in a ruling on two fishery regulation cases, Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo and Relentless, Inc. v. Department of Commerce.
This decision means that federal courts will have the final say on what an ambiguous federal statute means. What’s not clear is whether most courts will still listen to expert federal agencies in determining which interpretations make the most sense.
While courts and judges will vary, as a scholar in environmental law, I expect that the demise of Chevron deference will make it easier for federal judges to focus on the exact meaning of Congress’ individual words, rather than on Congress’ goals or the real-life workability of federal laws.
2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #27
Posted on 7 July 2024 by BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom, John Hartz
A listing of 31 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, June 30, 2024 thru Sat, July 6, 2024.
Story of the week
Our Story of the Week is brought to us by Dr. Ella Gilbert, a researcher with the British Antarctic Survey. As
Gilbert mentions in her bio, she's passionate about "making climate science accessible to non-scientists." Dr. Gilbert backs that ambition with action, presenting as "Dr. Gilbz" on YouTube. In her newest production, Gilbert walks us through three very recent scientific publications that amplify worry over the fate of Antarctic ice sheets and hence the fate of coastal cities all over the globe:
- Widespread seawater intrusions beneath the grounded ice of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica
- Coupled ice–ocean interactions during future retreat of West Antarctic ice streams in the Amundsen Sea sector
- Tipping point in ice-sheet grounding-zone melting due to ocean water intrusion
As Dr. Gilbert explains, these papers suggest a high degree of risk unaccounted for in models of future behavior of ice in West Antarctica. These findings join other recent work raising biq questions about what our climate accident is unleashing from Earth's most southerly continent. It's fair to say that these investigations collectively trend toward grim possibilities.
What happens in Antarctica doesn't stay in Antarctica. Leaving aside fear of the unknown, the practical implications of underestimated Antarctic ice loss are unanticipated sea level rise, and hence suboptimal planning for adaptation of coastal cities to challenges presented by the rising sea. We may fail to see cases for complete retreat in time for some degree of planned exit as opposed to a panicked rout. Failng to take into account what Antactica is going to deliver to our shorelines will be very costly.
Dr. Gilbert points out that even while we don't have complete information on the magnitude of Antarctic upheaval we're created, we do still know perfeclty well how to reduce whatever mayhem is in store: as quickly as possible we need to modernize our energy systems and dump the outmoded fossil fuels creating problems in the Antarctice and everwhere else on the planet. The biggest answer remains the same and plainly visible, leaving an even larger question hanging in the air: will we listen to and act on the best advice we have?
Stories we promoted this week, by publication date:
Before June 30
- More extreme heat demands coordinated action, WMO Press Release, Staff. "With extreme heat posing a growing threat to human health, the environment and key economic sectors, hundreds of millions of people in the northern hemisphere are bracing for what is typically the hottest month of the year, July."
- Firefighters near Phoenix battle wildfire as temperatures surpass 100F, US News, The Guardian, Maya Yang & Agencies. "Residents evacuate after Boulder View fire rips alongside Scottsdale, and wildfires in California and Oregon rage"
- The University of Chicago’s new climate initiative, Climate Change, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists,, Jessica McKenzie . "Brave research program or potentially dangerous foray into solar geoengineering?"https://thebulletin.org/2024/06/the-university-of-chicago-new-climate-initiative/
- Trump’s Environmental Agenda: Embrace Big Oil, Ignore the Climate Crisis, The Heat 2024, Capital & Main, Marcus Baram. "Project 2025 plan to gut climate policy and boost fossil fuels could set back global efforts for decades, say scientists and analysts."
- IEA calls for next national climate plans to target coal phase-down, Politics, Climate Home News, Joe Lo . "Countries have agreed to reduce power generated from coal, but shutting down plants is an economic and social challenge, especially in emerging economies"
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #27 2024
Posted on 4 July 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Climate-driven deoxygenation of northern lakes, Jansen et al., Nature Climate Change:
Oxygen depletion constitutes a major threat to lake ecosystems and the services they provide. Most of the world’s lakes are located >45° N, where accelerated climate warming and elevated carbon loads might severely increase the risk of hypoxia, but this has not been systematically examined. Here analysis of 2.6 million water quality observations from 8,288 lakes shows that between 1960 and 2022, most northern lakes experienced rapid deoxygenation strongly linked to climate-driven prolongation of summer stratification. Oxygen levels deteriorated most in small lakes (<10 ha) owing to their greater volumetric oxygen demand and surface warming rates, while the largest lakes gained oxygen under minimal stratification changes and improved aeration at spring overturns.
The Southern Ocean as the climate's freight train – driving ongoing global warming under zero-emission scenarios with ACCESS-ESM1.5, Chamberlain et al., Biogeosciences
New experiments presented here each simulated 300 years and included intermediate branch points. In each experiment that branched after emitting more than 1000 PgC, the global climate continues to warm. For the experiment that branched after 2000 PgC, or after 3.5 °C of warming from a preindustrial climate, there is 0.37 ± 0.08 °C of extra warming after 50 years of zero emissions, which increases to 0.83 ± 0.08 °C after 200 years. All branches show ongoing Southern Ocean warming. The circulation of the Southern Ocean is modified early in the warming climate, which contributes to changes in the distribution of both physical and biogeochemical subsurface ocean tracers, such as ongoing warming at intermediate depths and a reduction in deep oxygen south of 60° S.
Inoculation hesitancy: an exploration of challenges in scaling inoculation theory, Johnson & Madsen Jens Koed Madsen Jens Koed Madsen, Royal Society Open Science:
Inoculation theory research offers a promising psychological ‘vaccination’ against misinformation. But are people willing to take it? Expanding on the inoculation metaphor, we introduce the concept of ‘inoculation hesitancy’ as a framework for exploring reluctance to engage with misinformation interventions. Study 1 investigated whether individuals feel a need for misinformation inoculations. In a comparative self-evaluation, participants assessed their own experiences with misinformation and expectations of inoculation and compared them to those of the average person. Results exposed a better-than-average effect. While participants were concerned over the problem of misinformation, they estimated that they were less likely to be exposed to it and more skilful at detecting it than the average person. Their self-described likelihood of engaging with inoculation was moderate, and they believed other people would benefit more from being inoculated. In Study 2, participants evaluated their inclination to watch inoculation videos from sources varying in trustworthiness and political affiliation. Results suggest that participants are significantly less willing to accept inoculations from low-trust sources and less likely to accept inoculations from partisan sources that are antithetical to their own political beliefs. Overall, this research identifies motivational obstacles in reaching herd immunity with inoculation theory, guiding future development of inoculation interventions.
Preventing heat-related deaths: The urgent need for a global early warning system for heat, Brimicombe et al., PLOS Climate:
Heatwaves are the deadliest weather hazard and people and societies across the world continue to suffer from heat-related impacts. Future climate projections show a troubling increase in cross-sectoral impacts including health and economic risk presented by heatwaves. Many weather hazards such as floods and droughts already have a type of Early Warning System (EWS) or Global Alert System, but a global heat early warning system currently does not exist. An accurate heat EWS can save lives and can promote heat adaptation across society. Here, we (1) explore the history of Early Warning Systems as framed using the Disaster Risk Reduction paradigms and (2) identify potential barriers to an integrated Global Heat Early Warning system. Finally, we discuss what we have learned from history and the identified current barriers and outline a vision of a Global Heat Early Warning system around four key themes, incorporating systems for low-, middle-, and high-income countries and requiring cross-sectoral, cross-government, and interdisciplinary collaboration.
Temperature-related neonatal deaths attributable to climate change in 29 low- and middle-income countries, Dimitrova et al., Nature Communications:
Exposure to high and low ambient temperatures increases the risk of neonatal mortality, but the contribution of climate change to temperature-related neonatal deaths is unknown. We use Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data (n = 40,073) from 29 low- and middle-income countries to estimate the temperature-related burden of neonatal deaths between 2001 and 2019 that is attributable to climate change. We find that across all countries, 4.3% of neonatal deaths were associated with non-optimal temperatures. Climate change was responsible for 32% (range: 19-79%) of heat-related neonatal deaths, while reducing the respective cold-related burden by 30% (range: 10-63%). Climate change has impacted temperature-related neonatal deaths in all study countries, with most pronounced climate-induced losses from increased heat and gains from decreased cold observed in countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Future increases in global mean temperatures are expected to exacerbate the heat-related burden, which calls for ambitious mitigation and adaptation measures to safeguard the health of newborns.
Applied climatology for heritage, Brimblecombe & Richards, Theoretical and Applied Climatology:
The protection of heritage from a changing climate has been of increasing interest over the last few decades, which creates a need for a systematic approach to the impacts of climate on tangible and intangible heritage. We present heritage climatology as an applied, interdisciplinary field of science that examines aspects of climate that affect heritage and provides data, statistics, well-tuned climate parameters and projections that can aid interpreting past changes and future management of heritage. It must consider the impact of extreme events, cyclic processes and the gradual accumulation of damage. Climate threats to heritage need to be represented at the appropriate temporal and spatial scales, and transferred using dose–response functions such that they can be interpreted in terms of management decisions yet be resistant to errors from both the representation of the climate threat and its translation into policy.
From this week's government and NGO section:
How Americans View National, Local and Personal Energy Choices, Alec Tyson and Brian Kennedy, Pew Research Center:
The planet’s continued streak of record heat has spurred calls for action by scientists and global leaders. Meanwhile, in the United States, energy development policy is being hotly debated on the national and local levels this election year. How do Americans feel about U.S. energy policy options, and what steps are they willing to take in their own lives to reduce carbon emissions? A new Pew Research Center survey takes a look. There’s been a decline in the breadth of support for wind and solar power. The shares who favor expanding solar and wind power farms are down 12 percentage points and 11 points, respectively, since 2020, driven by sharp drops in support among Republicans. Interest in buying an electric vehicle (EV) is lower than a year ago. Today, 29% of Americans say they would consider an EV for their next purchase, down from 38% in 2023. Still, a majority of Americans (63%) support the goal of the U.S. taking steps to become carbon neutral by 2050. When asked which is the greater priority, far more Americans continue to say the country should focus on developing renewable energy rather than fossil fuel sources (65% vs. 34%).
Understanding pro-climate voters in the United States, Carman et al., Yale University and George Mason University:
The authors analyzed data from pro-climate voters, or registered voters in the U.S. who say both that global warming is a “very important” issue to their vote for president and that they prefer to vote for candidates who support action on global warming. In the survey, respondents first rated the importance of global warming and 27 other issues in terms of influencing their 2024 presidential vote. Later in the survey, they answered a different question about whether they preferred a candidate who supports or opposes action on global warming. Just over one-third (37%) of registered voters in the U.S. are pro-climate voters. Notably, an additional 25% of registered voters also prefer a candidate who supports climate action even though they do not say that global warming is a very important voting issue to them. Most other respondents indicated that climate change will not factor into their voting choices, but importantly, virtually no registered voters said that global warming was a very important issue and that they prefer a candidate who opposes action.
164 articles in 67 journals by 1014 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Characterisation of low-base and mid-base clouds and their thermodynamic phase over the Southern Ocean and Arctic marine regions, Dietel et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-7359-2024
Temporal Variability of Ventilation in the Eurasian Arctic Ocean, Gerke et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2023jc020608
Observations of climate change, effects
Attribution of the Extreme 2022 Summer Drought along the Yangtze River Valley in China Based on Detection and Attribution System of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Zhang et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-23-0258.1
How much will climate change drag down the economy?
Posted on 3 July 2024 by dana1981
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections
When Category 5 Hurricane Otis roared through Acapulco, Mexico, in October 2023, the city was left in ruins. Winds stripped facades from beachfront buildings and storm surge flooded lobbies. The storm killed at least 50 people and damaged 80% of hotels in the once-glittering resort town. Six months later, a Bloomberg reporter described “a grim scene,” with many buildings left abandoned and “swimming pools full of muck.”
And residents were still working to bring tourists back.
“If there’s no tourism, nothing happens,” Juan Carlos Díaz, a 59-year-old laborer, told an AP reporter. “It’s like a little chain, it generates (money) for everyone.”
As the climate warms and the weather grows more extreme, similar events could unfold in places worldwide, with the potential to devastate — or at least drag — the economy. Economists agree that climate change will cause severe damages and costs, but teasing out exactly how and how much it’s likely to affect the world’s economic engines is a matter of fierce debate in the academic literature. For example, will an extreme weather event impose one-time costs from which governments can quickly rebound, or will it create a persistent drag on the economy? About three-quarters of climate economists think the latter scenario is likely.
The debate is crucial because the costs of slowed economic growth compound over time. For a large economy like that of the United States or the world, just slightly stunting economic growth can add up to tens or even hundreds of trillions of dollars in lost wealth by the end of the century — making climate solutions look like an absolute bargain.
An April 2024 study in the journal Nature led by Potsdam Institute climate economist Maximilian Kotz estimated that climate damage costs by 2050 will be six times larger than the cost of reducing carbon pollution consistent with world’s targets under the Paris climate agreement over the same time frame.
And climate economists risk underestimating the potential price of inaction because they can only account for the costs of extreme weather events and impacts for which data are available.
“Climate damages are always going to be underestimated,” said Columbia climate economist Gernot Wagner in a phone interview. “Some things we just can’t quantify. For most of those uncertain climate damages, we have precisely and incorrectly estimated their cost at zero.”
It’s also critical to remember that economic metrics like gross domestic product, or GDP, don’t account for important factors like the stress, trauma, and lost cultural and natural resources that climate change also costs us. The true costs of climate damages go well beyond simply estimating how much GDP will be lost.
Rebuttal Update Project - Summer break and relaxed publication schedule
Posted on 2 July 2024 by John Mason, BaerbelW, Ken Rice
Regular readers might be surprised to not see another "At a glance" highlight for an updated rebuttal given that it's Tuesday when this blog post gets published and that we've done just that "regularly as clockwork" since February 2023. Please read on to find out why we are going on a little summer break now and how we plan to switch to a more relaxed publication routine for updated rebuttals following that.
November 2022 saw us set off on a bit of a journey. It wasn't just that there was a mountain of rebuttals debunking well-known denier talking-points, waiting to be updated. More ambitiously, we had also decided after some debate to restructure them, for the purpose of improved public accessibility. You will therefore immediately know that you landed upon an updated rebuttal if it begins with "At a glance".
Since late 2022 it's been pretty much flat out, with John Mason drafting one or two updated rebuttals a week and Bärbel Winkler, Ken Rice and others reviewing their content. We started our weekly highlighting of updated rebuttals on February 14th 2023 and up until now have continued that procedure without fail, passing 50 updated rebuttals at the end of January 2024. All told, almost 100 updated rebuttals have been drafted with 71 published and highlighted as of this post. It's been a lot of hard work, in other words. But it's the summer holidays soon and we think we deserve a break!
Climate Adam: How deadly heatwaves are blown up by climate change
Posted on 1 July 2024 by Guest Author
This video includes conclusions of the creator climate scientist Dr. Adam Levy. It is presented to our readers as an informed perspective. Please see video description for references (if any).
Across the world people are sweltering under the extreme heat of heat waves - whether under the heat dome in North America or the deadly heat that threatened Hajj pilgrims in Mecca. These weather disasters may not look as scary as devastating floods, wildfires and droughts, but they are silent killers - threatening the most vulnerable in our societies. And now research is shedding light on just how deadly heat waves can be, and how climate change is pouring fuel on the fire. So how does global warming have such a huge effect on heatwaves, and what climate action can we take to protect ourselves - now and in the future?
Thanks to scientist Dr Fredi Otto for her input on the script. Follow here here: X /frediotto
Support ClimateAdam on patreon: https://patreon.com/climateadam
2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #26
Posted on 30 June 2024 by BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom, John Hartz
A listing of 35 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, June 23, 2024 thru Sat, June 29, 2024.
Story of the week
Our Story of the Week is extreme weather juiced by our climate fumble creating an extreme start to summer across the Northern Hemisphere:
As University of Massachusetts professors Mathew Barlow and and Jeffrey Basara explain in another article in this week's listing, we know this isn't normal summer weather. This won't come as a shock to most of us. "Plain as the nose on your face" is hard to avoid— or deny. Perhaps this is why we're seeing our own explainer against "it's not happening" fading into its sunset years (if our access statistics are any guide).
Now that we're properly roasting, are we done with denial of human-caused climate change? Not exactly, because of some basic facts:
- The fundamental fix for our climate mess is energy modernization, shrugging off our old habit of burning hydrocarbons.
- The faster we step into this future, the less that outmoded energy firms reliant on fossil fuels will be able to monetize the resources they control.
Hence it doesn't need a rocket scientist to see an obvious way for any energy firm stuck in the past to optimize its stale resources: delay energy progress by all means possible. If all once has to sell is inconvenient and awkward melting ice, modern refrigeration is very bad news and must be discouraged at all costs. It's no different with fossil fuels.
Previously (and still to some extent) encouragement to procrastinate was accomplished by fairly crude denial of fairly basic physics we've had in our grasp for a span including three centuries. Now— with the evidence of our changing of our climate being increasingly plain to see— we're seeing a novel and malign form of "energy transition" wherein the focus of effort by the fossil fuel industry on delaying the invitable march of technological progress shifts. No longer are we not changing the planet but rather the wretched mess we're making with our energy anachronism is a necessary and even hopeful feature of human progress, as detailed in yet another article from this week's collection. The gist of "innovation" by parties interested in freezing our energy clock is nicely covered in The New Climate Denial Is Based on These Six Terms, via Genevieve Guenther writing for The New Republic.
Stories we promoted this week, by publication date:
Before June 23
- Billions of people just felt the deadly intensity of climate-fueled heat waves, Ciimate, Washington Post, Sarah Kaplan & Scott Dance. "Scorching heat across five continents set 1,400 records this week and showed how human-caused global warming has made catastrophic temperatures commonplace."
- "The Day After Tomorrow" is one of the only true climate change films. Why do scientists hate it?, Salon, Matthew Rosza. "Salon spoke with the director and co-writer of the 2004 sci-fi blockbuster about scientific accuracy in Hollywood"
- Analysis: Wind and solar added more to global energy than any other source in 2023, Renewables, Carbon Brief, Simon Evans & Verner Viisainen.
- The U.S. is finally making serious efforts to adapt to climate change, Eye on the Storm, Yale Climate Connections, Jeff Masters. "A major bill before Congress could help the country prepare for the coming climate storm."
Fact Brief - Does temperature have to rise before CO2 does?
Posted on 29 June 2024 by John Mason
Skeptical Science is partnering with Gigafact to produce fact briefs — bite-sized fact checks of trending claims. This fact brief was written by John Mason in collaboration with members from the Gigafact team. You can submit claims you think need checking via the tipline.
Does temperature have to rise before CO2 does?
While historically Earth's temperatures have risen or fallen after its position in space slowly changed, the dominant cause of today's rapid warming is carbon dioxide emissions from human activities.
Cyclical variations in Earth’s orbit along with its axial tilt and orientation gradually affect the amount of solar energy that reaches Earth. These “Milankovitch Cycles” occur over tens of thousands of years. During a warming phase, they trigger feedback mechanisms that add additional warming.
One example is raising the temperature of the oceans, which releases carbon dioxide from the water. Thus, while CO2 increased in response to an initial warming, it also caused additional warming.
Today’s global warming is not due to Milankovitch Cycles, which are in their slow cooling phase. This time, it’s us. When we burn fossil fuels, we emit CO2 and other greenhouse gasses, which make it more difficult for heat to escape the atmosphere.
Go to full rebuttal on Skeptical Science or to the fact brief on Gigafact
This fact brief is responsive to conversations such as this one.
Sources
Science Synchronous Change of Atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic Temperature During the Last Deglacial Warming
American Institute of Physics The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect
NASA Milankovitch (Orbital) Cycles and Their Role in Earth’s Climate
NASA Why Milankovitch (Orbital) Cycles Can’t Explain Earth’s Current Warming
NASA Vital Signs – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet
Translation #20 of The Conspiracy Theory Handbook published!
Posted on 28 June 2024 by BaerbelW
Conspiracy theories attempt to explain events as the secretive plots of powerful people. While conspiracy theories are not typically supported by evidence, this doesn’t stop them from blossoming. Conspiracy theories damage society in a number of ways. To help minimise these harmful effects, The Conspiracy Theory Handbook, by Stephan Lewandowsky and John Cook, explains why conspiracy theories are so popular, how to identify the traits of conspiratorial thinking, and what are effective response strategies.
After its initial publication in March 2020, it didn't take long for the first translation - German - to make an appearance, followed in fairly short order by Spanish and Portuguese. Since then, several translations have been added each year and this year we already published two more: Dutch as #19 in May and Bulgarian at the end of June, getting us up to 20 translations!
With 20 translations, The Conspiracy Theory Handbook is now our handbook with the most translations, followed close on its heels by The Debunking Handbook 2020 with 19 translations thus far.
The Conspiracy Theaory Handbook distills the most important research findings and expert advice on dealing with conspiracy theories. It also introduces the abbreviation CONSPIR which serves as a mnemonic to more easily remember these seven traits of conspiratorial thinking:
- Contradictory
- Overriding suspicion
- Nefarious intent
- Something must be wrong
- Persecuted Victim
- Immune to Evidence
- Re-interpreting Randomness
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #26 2024
Posted on 27 June 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Tipping point in ice-sheet grounding-zone melting due to ocean water intrusion, Bradley & Hewitt, Nature Geoscience:
Here we develop a model to capture the feedback between intruded ocean water, the melting it induces and the resulting changes in ice geometry. We reveal a sensitive dependence of the grounding-zone dynamics on this feedback: as the grounding zone widens in response to melting, both temperature and flow velocity in the region increase, further enhancing melting. We find that increases in ocean temperature can lead to a tipping point being passed, beyond which ocean water intrudes in an unbounded manner beneath the ice sheet, via a process of runaway melting. Additionally, this tipping point may not be easily detected with early warning indicators. Although completely unbounded intrusions are not expected in practice, this suggests a mechanism for dramatic changes in grounding-zone behaviour, which are not currently included in ice-sheet models. We consider the susceptibility of present-day Antarctic grounding zones to this process, finding that both warm and cold water cavity ice shelves may be vulnerable. Our results point towards a stronger sensitivity of ice-sheet melting, and thus higher sea-level-rise contribution in a warming climate, than has been previously understood.
Diminished efficacy of regional marine cloud brightening in a warmer world, Wan et al., Nature Climate Change:
Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is a geoengineering proposal to cool atmospheric temperatures and reduce climate change impacts. As large-scale approaches to stabilize global mean temperatures pose governance challenges, regional interventions may be more attractive near term. Here we investigate the efficacy of regional MCB in the North Pacific to mitigate extreme heat in the Western United States. Under present-day conditions, we find MCB in the remote mid-latitudes or proximate subtropics reduces the relative risk of dangerous summer heat exposure by 55% and 16%, respectively. However, the same interventions under mid-century warming minimally reduce or even increase heat stress in the Western United States and across the world. This loss of efficacy may arise from a state-dependent response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to both anthropogenic warming and regional MCB. Our result demonstrates a risk in assuming that interventions effective under certain conditions will remain effective as the climate continues to change.
Millions of climate refugees are coming!’ A critical media discourse analysis on climate change-induced migrants in Flemish press, Bonneux & Van Praag, Environmental Sociology:
The rise in research, policy and news on climate change-induced migration has grown exponentially over the last two decades. Migration related to global warming is increasingly portrayed as inevitable and used to mobilise people to act immediately against climate change. By analysing the discourse of two Flemish news media journals (De Standaard and Het Laatste Nieuws) and the Belgian national news agency (Belga), indexed by the GoPress database (1985–2022), this paper aims to present how migration and climate change are linked to each other in the media, how this differs across media outlets, and reflects on potential outcomes of this framing. Results indicate that climate-induced migration is often portrayed in an apocalyptic way and seen as an inevitable threat that needs to be avoided. The used terminology and the portrayals of climate change-induced migration are not in line with the scientific evidence on this topic.
Climate change to exacerbate the burden of water collection on women’s welfare globally, Carr et al., Nature Climate Change:
In rural households lacking access to running water, women often bear the responsibility for its collection, with adverse effects on their well being through long daily time commitments, physical strain and mental distress. Here we show that rising temperatures will exacerbate this water collection burden globally. Using fixed-effects regression, we analyse the effect of climate conditions on self-reported water collection times for 347 subnational regions across four continents from 1990 to 2019. Historically, a 1 °C temperature rise increased daily water collection times by 4 minutes. Reduced precipitation historically increased water collection time, most strongly where precipitation levels were low or fewer women employed. Accordingly, due to warming by 2050, daily water collection times for women without household access could increase by 30% globally and up to 100% regionally, under a high-emissions scenario.
Managing values in climate science, Roussos, PLOS Climate
Climate science has been deeply affected by social and political values in the last fifty years [1]. If we focus on climate denial and obfuscation, we might see the influence of values as wholly negative and aim instead for objective, value-free climate science. But, perhaps surprisingly, this is at odds with the view of many philosophers who study the influence of values on science. Science cannot and should not be free from values, they argue. Rather, we should be transparent about our values, study their influence, and ensure that the right values play the right roles. But philosophers alone cannot determine what the right values are or what their appropriate use is. Close collaboration between climate scientists and philosophers is required for values in climate science to be accurately studied and appropriately managed.
From this week's government and NGO section:
People's Climate Vote 2024, United Nations Development Programme:
80 percent – or four out of five - people globally want their governments to take stronger action to tackle the climate crisis. Even more - 86 percent - want to see their countries set aside geopolitical differences and work together on climate change. The scale of consensus is especially striking in the current global context of increased conflict and the rise of nationalism. Over 73,000 people speaking 87 different languages across 77 countries were asked 15 questions on climate change for the survey. The questions were designed to help understand how people are experiencing the impacts of climate change and how they want world leaders to respond. The 77 countries polled represent 87 percent of the global population.
Looming Deadlines for Coastal Resilience, Dahl et al., Union of Concerned Scientists:
The nearly 90 million people living in U.S. coastal communities depend on an array of critical infrastructure—from the schools that students attend to the power and wastewater treatment plants that provide electricity and clean water. However, research by the authors shows that between now and 2050, climate change–driven sea level rise will expose more than 1,600 critical infrastructure assets coastwide to disruptive flooding at least twice per year. Future flooding particularly threatens public and affordable housing. This burden is borne inequitably: more than half the infrastructure at risk by 2050 is in communities at a disadvantage based on historical and ongoing racism, discrimination, and pollution. The amount of infrastructure in jeopardy late this century will depend heavily on countries’ choices about global heat-trapping emissions. Policymakers and public and private decision-makers must take immediate, science-based steps to safeguard critical infrastructure and achieve true, long-term coastal resilience.
146 articles in 65 journals by 860 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Aitken Mode Aerosols Buffer Decoupled Mid-Latitude Boundary Layer Clouds Against Precipitation Depletion, McCoy et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd039572
Depth-dependent warming of the Gulf of Eilat (Aqaba), Sengupta et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-024-03765-8
Radiative Heating of High-Level Clouds and Its Impacts on Climate, Haslehner et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024jd040850
Six incredibly popular climate policies
Posted on 26 June 2024 by Guest Author
This is a re-post from Yale Climate Connections by Karin Kirk
Astrong majority of registered voters support certain policies aimed at tackling climate change, according to recent research by the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication (the publisher of this site) and the Center for Climate Change Communication at George Mason University.
Here’s a summary of these results.
At a glance - What caused early 20th Century warming?
Posted on 25 June 2024 by John Mason, BaerbelW, Ken Rice
On February 14, 2023 we announced our Rebuttal Update Project. This included an ask for feedback about the added "At a glance" section in the updated basic rebuttal versions. This weekly blog post series highlights this new section of one of the updated basic rebuttal versions and serves as a "bump" for our ask. This week features "What caused early 20th Century warming?". More will follow in the upcoming weeks. Please follow the Further Reading link at the bottom to read the full rebuttal and to join the discussion in the comment thread there.
At a glance
The Twentieth Century climate was a veritable Smorgasbord of natural and manmade factors. They vied with or against one another, driving temperatures in various directions at different times. Conditions were on the cool side up until the 1920s. That was followed by a sustained warming through to the late 1940s. From then until the late 1970s, periods of warmer and cooler conditions alternated. Thereafter, we saw the erratic but one-way climb of temperatures that has persisted through to the present day.
This was also the period during which CO2 emissions from use of fossil fuels really took off, from 1.5 billion tonnes a year in 1900, through 6 billion tonnes in 1950, 25 billion by 2000 and 44 billion now. How well do those figures correlate with what was going on in Earth's climate system at the time?
Planetary climate is affected by a number of factors. Examples include solar variability, the amount of volcanic activity, fluctuating ocean currents, cyclic variations in Earth's orbit, the strength of the Greenhouse Effect and the amount of sunlight reflected by Earth's surface. Some are forcings - factors that dictate and change the total energy within the climate system. Others are feedbacks - they respond in various ways to those changes.
Both forcings and feedbacks operate on a variable timescales - from years to millennia. That variability means they may sometimes reinforce one another and at other times cancel each other out. To assess why the climate behaved in a certain way at a certain time, all must be examined.
In the case of the 1920-1940 period, the increase in global temperature is thought to have been largely caused by three of the above factors. The amount of solar energy reaching the top of Earth's atmosphere rose steadily from 1920-1940. Although the amount of change was small, it was certainly not negligible. Volcanic activity produces atmospheric aerosols that can have a cooling effect by partly blocking out the sun. Lower than normal volcanic activity, as was the case in the 1920-1940 period, would result in less of those airborne coolants. Our early, albeit relatively low greenhouse gas emissions also contributed to the warming. Regional factors played a role in increasing temperatures in some parts of the world, too. Most notably, changes in ocean currents led to warmer-than-normal sea temperatures in the North Atlantic.
Anyone who has been around for long enough to recall the chemical smogs of the 1950s and early 1960s will know that pollution can be deadly. In one smog, in London in December 1952, between 4,000 and 12,000 people died, victims of severe respiratory disease. Governments responded. Over the next two decades numerous Clean Air Acts were passed. Pollution levels fell accordingly. But such pollutants, just like volcanic gases, are aerosols that have that same cooling effect. Clearing them away removed that effect and tore off the mask behind which CO2 emissions had been hiding - and off we went on our warming journey.
Please use this form to provide feedback about this new "At a glance" section. Read a more technical version below or dig deeper via the tabs above!
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What record global heat means for breaching the 1.5C warming limit
Posted on 24 June 2024 by Zeke Hausfather
This is a re-post from Carbon Brief
Global temperatures in 2023 blew past expectations to set the warmest year on record, even topping 1.5C in one of the main datasets.
This warmth has continued into 2024, meaning that this year is also on track to potentially pass 1.5C in one or more datasets.
Crossing 1.5C in one or even two years is not the same as exceeding the 1.5C limit under the Paris Agreement. The goal is generally considered to refer to long-term warming, rather than annual temperatures that include the short-term influence of natural fluctuations in the climate, such as El Niño.
Nonetheless, recent warming has led to renewed debate around whether the world might imminently pass the 1.5C Paris Agreement limit – sooner than climate scientists and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have previously estimated.
Here, Carbon Brief provides an updated analysis of when the world will likely exceed the Paris 1.5C limit (in a scenario where emissions are not rapidly cut), using both the latest global surface temperature data and climate model simulations.
The findings show that, while the best estimate for crossing 1.5C has moved up by approximately two years compared to Carbon Brief’s earlier 2020 analysis, it remains most likely to happen in the late 2020s or early 2030s – rather than in the next few years.
Understanding global temperature targets
Human emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gasses have substantially warmed the planet over the past 150 years. On top of this human-driven warming, there is year-to-year natural variability largely associated with El Niño and La Niña events.
A big El Niño or La Niña event can result in global temperatures up to 0.2C warmer or cooler, respectively, than they would otherwise be.
As the world has been warming by around 0.2C per decade, a large El Niño event can represent an early look at what typical global temperatures will be a decade in the future. Or, to put it another way, human emissions are adding a permanent super-El Niño’s worth of heat to the climate system each decade.
In the 2015 Paris Agreement, the international community agreed to limit warming to well-below 2C above pre-industrial levels and “pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5C”. While there is no set definition for the time period against which the goal is measured, it is generally interpreted to refer to long-term, human-driven warming.
For example, the IPCC’s recently completed sixth assessment report (AR6) uses the midpoint of a 20-year period as a way to avoid overinterpreting short-term natural variability.
While a useful approach, this definition has the unfortunate side-effect that scientists will not know for sure that the world passed 1.5C until 10 years after it has happened.
This has led the community to propose a number of alternative approaches, such as Carbon Brief’s 2020 analysis and a 2023 Nature commentary by Prof Richard Betts and colleagues at the UK Met Office.
2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #25
Posted on 23 June 2024 by BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom, John Hartz
A listing of 32 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, June 16, 2024 thru Sat, June 22, 2024.
Stories we promoted this week, by publication date:
Before June 16
- ‘Unprecedented mass coral bleaching’ expected in 2024, says expert, Environment, The Guardian, Karen McVeigh.
- Thinking a greener future is costly? The fingerprints of climate change are already all over this budget, ABC News, Jess Davis and Tim Leslie. If budgets are the government's attempt to chart the course for the next few years, what can this one teach us about how climate change is leaving its mark, and how the government is looking to tackle it?
- Major shift in global climate patterns is unfolding now, federal forecasters say, Weather, USA TODAY, Doyle Rice. "El Nin?o is officially over, federal forecasters announced Thursday, but we're not quite in a La Nin?a yet. We're in the middling 'ENSO-neutral' phase."
- Why we're still losing the fight against Methane, ClimateAdam on Youtube, Adam Levy.
- Madrid, Frankfurt, Vienna: How are European cities adapting to heatwaves?, EuroNews, Lottie Limb. As parts of Greece, Cyprus and Türkiye face searing heatwaves, here's how trees, water and green buildings can help.
- Swiss lawmakers reject climate ruling in favour of female climate elders, Weather, The Guardian, Ajit Niranjan. "Co-president of the KlimaSeniorinnen ( ) says declaration is betrayal of older women"
- Skeptical Science New Research for Week #24 2024, Skeptical Science, Doug Bostrom & Marc Kodack. Skeptical Science's weekly survy of academic climate research and governmental/NGO reports on matters of climate.
- Hurricane Winds Can Destroy Solar Panels, But Developers Are Working to Fortify Them, Inside Clean Energy, Inside Climate News, Kikley Price. "Gale-force winds and dark skies during hurricanes pose major issues for solar infrastructure."
June 16
- 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #24, Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winkler, Doug Bostrom & John Hartz. A listing of 35 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, June 9, 2024 thru Sun, June 16, 2024.
- The Guardian view on the climate crisis and heatwaves: a killer we need to combat | Editorial, Health - The Guardian, Editorial. Britain may be chilly, but from Greece to India, people are dying due to record temperatures. The death toll will grow without urgent action
- Extreme heat to scorch central, southern US on Father’s Day, Weather, CNN, by Ashley R. Williams & Mary Gilbert.
- Once Fruitful, Libyan Village Suffers Climate Crisis, AFP/Barron's, Jihad Dorgham.
