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2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #13

Posted on 31 March 2024 by BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom, John Hartz

A listing of 34 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, March 24, 2024 thru Sat, March 30, 2024.

Story of the week

Carbon Brief article title page

When it comes to polar sea ice appearances can be deceptive, trends may be obvious but the year-by-year evolution of our warming climate is full of noise, and circumstances can change rapidly. That's how our Story of the Week might be synopsized. Carbon Brief's journalist Ayesha Tandon's Antarctic sea ice `behaving strangely` as Arctic reaches `below-average` winter peak updates us on the annual evolution of ice melt and ice advance at each pole of the planet at 2024's vernal equinox. Antarctica's sea ice continues to track at near record low levels, continuing a sharp reversal from "everything looks fine!" starting a few years ago and now behaving “completely outside the bounds of normality” according to experts. At the same time, while Arctic sea ice superficially looks better than in recent years despite being buffeted by challenging weather a closer look reveals parlous conditions— and literal thin ice. NOAA GFDL scientist Zach Labe reports: “Total Arctic sea-ice volume ended up as the third lowest on record for the month of February due to the wide coverage of this thinner ice.”

Stories we promoted this week, by publication date:

Before March 24

March 24

March 25

March 26

March 27

March 28

March 29

If you happen upon high quality climate-science and/or climate-myth busting articles from reliable sources while surfing the web, please feel free to submit them via this Google form so that we may share them widely. Thanks!

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Comments 1 to 3:

  1. A while ago I subscribed to The Climate Brink.  It is written by Dr. Andrew Dessler, a top climate scientist.  He posts an article about once a week. The articles are short, easy to read and informative.  Skeptical Science could consider asking Dr. Dessler about reposting his stuff here, they would fit with no editing.

    His most recent article titled "How extreme was the Earth's temperature in 2023" compared the temperature record in 2023 with model results.  He finds that while the record was bigger than any in the historical record, it was in the middle of what record model results were.  This suggests that it might just be a larger bump from random variables than we have observed before.  He suggests that if that was the case, in the next two years we should see temperatures go back down.  If the temperature does not go down in the next two years that means a different cause which would be bad news.

    This article made me feel less anxous about the 2023 record.

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  2. Dr Gavin Schmidt published an opinion piece in Nature today.  He asserts that the heat in 2023 cannot be explained by known factors.  It mentions aerosols, El Nino, the volcano and the items we have discussed.  A newspsper article about Gavin's piece quoted Michael Mann as thinking that El Nino was the primary cause of the heat in 2023.  Gavin thinks El Nino does not explain the data.  I think the blog I linked above puts Dr Dressler in the natural variation group.

    It is very interesting to see how this scientific question is discussed in the literature and in the press.  Usually scientific issues are discussed primarily in peer reviewed papers.  This issue is getting a lot of informal discussion since it is changing so fast.  I cannot argue with the likes of Mann, Schmidt, Hausfather and Dressler.  Hansen is probably saying I told you so.  Chose your own favorite explaination, we will have to wait for more data.  On the bad side, March set another huge heat record.

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  3. Gavin Schmidt has also posted about this over at RealClimate.

    Much ado about Acceleration

    In the concluding paragraph:

    Remarkably, the Hansen et al projections are basically indistinguishable from what the mean of the TCR-screened CMIP6 models are projecting. Or, to put it another way, everybody is (or should be) expecting an acceleration of climate warming (in the absence of dramatic cuts in GHG emissions)

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