Posted on 6 October 2024 by BaerbelW, Doug Bostrom, John Hartz

Story of the week

We're all made of standard human fabric so it's nobody's particular fault but while "other" parts of the world have very recently lived (mostly) through enormous floods with huge consequences, only over the past week has the United States focused its immediate attention on hydrometeoological extremes— thanks to the arrival and massive hammer blow of Hurricane Helene (see "psychological distance").

Our Story of the Week is statistically obvious by headcount in the list below. It's all about Hurricane Helene. A common theme in reportage from affected areas is the element of surprise in arrival of flooding on a previously unimagined and unexperienced scale. Affected residents of a swathe of states spanning from Florida to Virginia were depending on guidance from experts to prepare for this storm and despite fairly strident warnings it's safe to say that the advice they received didn't encompass the unfolding reality of the storm, particularly as it intruded into the continental interior and subsequently stalled as it died away into a tropical depression.

How could we be so surprised by something as hard to hide as 40 triilion gallons (1.5¹⁴ liters) of water? Perhaps it's because we're using outmoded and inappropriate metrics when evaluating the threat posed by hurricanes. Our focus when it comes to hurricane preparation has traditionally been centered on wind and storm surge. These are certainly germane to coastal locations in terms of threat to life and overall destruction. Storm surge in particular is an urgent matter for people and infrastructure directly facing seas and oceans.

But are wind and storm surge the center of mass of potential hurricane disaster? With so much inland population potentially affected by hurricanes— and with the behavior of hurricanes now being significantly affected by global warming— how best can emergency commmunications serve the public?

Storm surge fades as a factor not far from the coastline. Farther than a relatively few miles from shore and leaving surge behind, a hurricane's principal impact and threat transitions from crazy wind speed and invasive waves to something more generally familiar: rain. Only this isn't normal rain but instead precipitation from air absolutely stuffed with moisture thanks to its passage over warm ocean. The warmer the water, the higher the risk. Hurricane Helene was positivily juiced with moisture by passing over a Gulf of Mexico that like the rest of the world ocean is freakishly warm, and the storm carried that moisture just as far as it could— before shedding its unbearable load on Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina and Virginia. 

We clearly need to be thinking about a different perspective on hurricane risk and how to talk about it, and fortunately we have experts doing exactly that. We didn't cover it in this week's listing but the New York Times just ran an article laying out the current defects with how we convey hurricane threats, The Problem With the Hurricane Category Rating. In a nutshell, over half of US hurricane fatalities are due to deluges of fresh water, yet our thinking about these disasters is myopically focused on coastal contexts. We do as a technical matter know much better. For a comprehensive review of circumspect weather hazard communications (important in a non-stationary climate!), see Improving Societal Outcomes of Extreme Weather in a Changing Climate: An Integrated Perspective (pdf), Morss et al., Annual Review of Environment and Resources.

Stories we promoted this week, by publication date:

Before September 29

• Sorry, AI won’t “fix” climate change, Opinion, MIT Technology Review, James Temple. "OpenAI’s Sam Altman claims AI will deliver an 'Intelligence Age,' but tech breakthroughs alone can't solve global warming."
• As Florida Storms Worsen, Some in Tampa Bay Wonder: Is Living There Worth It?, US, New York Times, Isabelle Taft, Elisabeth Parker, Valerie Boey Ramsey & Patricia Mazzei. "Residents of the booming region are confronting a new reality: Even when storms make landfall far away, their impact is being felt."
• A Controversial Play — and What It Taught Me About the Psychology of Climate, TedTalks on Youtube, David Finnigan.

September 29

• 2024 SkS Weekly Climate Change & Global Warming News Roundup #39, Skeptical Science, Bärbel Winnkler, Doug Bostrom & John Hartz. A listing of 30 news and opinion articles we found interesting and shared on social media during the past week: Sun, September 22, 2024 thru Sat, September 28, 2024.
• Leonard Leo-linked group attacking efforts to educate judges on climate, The Guardian, Dharna Noor and Alice Herman. Rightwing US thinktank claimed in report that non-profit holding trainings is ‘corruptly influencing the courts’
• US climate change targets threatened by tech energy surge from AI, Business, The Irish Times, Amanda Chu, Jamie Smyth & Aime Williams. "Lack of grid capacity proves significant constraint in green energy transition as demand booms"
• Head of FEMA says `historic` destruction caused by Helene is linked to climate crisis, The Independent News, Mike Bedigan. Deanne Criswell said that rising temperatures in the Gulf were causing conditions that caused ‘significant infrastructure damage’ that had affected a multi-state area
• Scenes of destruction and suffering lay almost everywhere in Swannanoa, N.C. — cars in tree limbs, mangled homes, mud-choked roads and people desperate for water and food., Climate, Washington Post, Brady Dennis. "Scenes of destruction and suffering lay almost everywhere in Swannanoa, N.C. — cars in tree limbs, mangled homes, mud-choked roads and people desperate for water and food."
• Our leaders are collaborators with fossil fuel colonialists. This is the source of our communal dread, The Guardian, Tim Winton. The lassitude that distinguishes our moment is born of sorrow and buried rage. We act like colonial subjects because, in effect, that’s what we are

September 30

• Scientists criticise UN agency’s failure to withdraw livestock emissions report, Environment, Arthur Neslen. "Academics say there has been no serious response from FAO to their complaints of ‘serious distortions’ in report"
• You will not escape the climate crisis, The Climate Brink, Andrew Dessler. We are literally all in this together
• The arrival of mega-hurricanes will show us nature's darkest side. Here's what that means, Planet Earth, BBC Science Focus Magazine, Joe Phelan. "The effects of climate change are already being felt all around the planet. In coastal areas, those effects are manifesting in storms with unprecedented destructive potential."
• Combating Misinformation Runs Deeper Than Swatting Away ‘Fake News’, Opinion, Scientific American, Jennifer Allen & David Rand. " 'Fake news'-style misinformation is only a fraction of what deceives voters. Fighting misinformation will require holding political elites and mainstream media accountable"
• Wet September saw some counties experience rainiest month on record – Met Office, The Independent (UK),, Emily Beament. "Bedfordshire and Oxfordshire had their wettest month in records dating back to 1836, while other counties had their wettest September."
• Watching the Gulf of Mexico for tropical storm formation, Eye on the Storm, Yale Climate Connections, JeMasters. "No matter how this system develops, it’s likely to douse Florida with days of heavy rain."
• Why Appalachia Flooded So Severely from Helene’s Remnants, Scientific American, Meghan Bartels. "Inland flooding from tropical cyclones, even at high altitudes, is a major worry—and one that scientists don’t know enough about"

October 1

• Is the idea of a "climate haven" under water?, Yale Climate Connections, Bob Henson. As Helene tragically showed, even places semi-shielded from heat and drought can fall prey to intensifying downpours and disastrous floods.
• Researchers Estimate Climate Change Caused 50% More Rainfall From Helene, Climate, The Weather Channel, Jennifer Gray.

October 2

• Who Will Care for Americans Left Behind by Climate Migration?, ProPublica, Abrahm Lustgarten. As people move away from flooding and heat, new research suggests that those who remain will be older, poorer and more vulnerable.
• Climate change made Helene's rainfall more severe, The Climate Brink, Zeke Hausfather. Early modeling results suggest significantly more rainfall from the storm due to historical warming
• Historic October heat in the West made possible by climate change, ABC News, Max Golembo & Julia Jacobo. "An unprecedented late season heat wave is blanketing the western U.S.?"
• Vance`s `Weird Science` Debate Remark Echoes Billionaire Who Powered His Political Rise, DeSmog, Sharon Kelly. Peter Thiel, JD Vance’s former boss, also expresses confusion on climate, supporting expanded fossil fuel use while appearing unclear on the consequences.
• The Hidden Hand of Climate Change in the Presidential Election, Politics, HEATMAP , Paul Waldman. "Even when the candidates aren’t talking about it, it’s still there."

October 3

• Guest post: How solar geoengineering could disrupt wind and solar power, Carbon Brief, Guest Author Dr Susanne Baur.
• A Carbon Capture Monitoring Well Leaked in Illinois. Most Residents Found Out When the World Did, Inside Climate News, Nina Elkadi. When a CO2 well leaks and potentially endangers the public, who is responsible for informing community members?
• A NOAA Climate Agency in Asheville Was Knocked Out by Helene, New York Times, Raymond Zhong. The National Centers for Environmental Information in Asheville, N.C., sweep together data from around the world to help track Earth’s warming.
• Cornell Study Shows LNG Worse for Climate Than Coal   by Jessica Corbett, Climate, Common Dreams, Oct 3, 2024

October 4

• Opinion: Helene destroyed my hometown. I don't want climate change stories of false hope, Climate , Anna Jane Joyner.
• Hurricane Helene could cost $200 billion. Nobody knows where the money will come from., Climate, Grist, Jake Bittle. "Almost none of the storm's devastation will be paid out by insurance."

October 5

• A Hurricane of Bad Information, The Atlantic, Juliette Kayyem. How a changing media environment, worsened by intentional attempts to deceive people, hampers the response to natural catastrophes
• After the deluge, the lies: Misinformation and hoaxes about Helene cloud the recovery, Politico, Associated Press. Far-out tales of space lasers, fake snow and weather control technology — sometimes tinged with antisemitism — have spread after recent natural disasters.