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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 50751 to 50800:

  1. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    chris, haven't you been reading the debate. It's the solar furries. I wonder if solar furries have soft fur? Perhaps Brr will tell us, as the mechanism involved as only been observed in his imagination.
  2. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    brr "There is more to the sun than TSI." Well yes, the measurable solar outputs are: the open solar flux, the sunspot number, the solar irradiance, the galactic cosmic ray flux, the UV irradiance. These have all trended in a mild cooling direction since the mid-late 1980's as the solar output has reduced somewhat. So which solar parameter do you have in mind that has a warming contribution as the solar output reduces? As is rather well established (and as the IPCC report points out) these solar parameters vary pretty much in concert (e.g. through the solar cycle) and so the fact that one may observe some apparent correlation between the cosmic ray flux (say) and some measurable parameter on Earth is not evidence for a contribution from the cosmic ray flux. That's part of the problem of interpretation re the "many empirical relationships" in the IPCC draft report that some of the anti-science chaps have become so exercised about. No doubt it will be presented more clearly in the final version of the report!
  3. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    brr @90, the IPCC draft report says:
    "Many empirical relationships have been reported between GCR or cosmogenic isotope archives and some aspects of the climate system (e.g., Bond et al., 2001; Dengel et al., 2009; Ram and Stolz, 1999). The forcing from changes in total solar irradiance alone does not seem to account for these observations, implying the existence of an amplifying mechanism such as the hypothesized GCR-cloud link."
    (My emphasis) By definition, amplifying mechanisms are positively correlated with the signal they amplify. You have now resorted to arguing that because some studies suggest a climate signal positively correlated with TSI and negatively correlated with GCR, therefore there may exist a solar related factor that is not positively correlated with TSI and negatively correlated with GCR. Or more to the point, you are suggesting there is an unknown factor positively correlated with TSI and negatively correlated with GCR up until 1980, but negatively correlated with TSI, and positively with GCR thereafter. And your evidence is that there exists a positive correlation between global temperatures and TSI (and negatively correlated with GCR) prior to 1980, but a negative (positive) correlation afterwards. In the terms of philosophy of science, your theory is (designed to be) unfalsifiable. Its sole purpose is to provide a mental shield so that you don't have to face the evidence. As an aside, I enjoy the irony, pointed out by Dana, of Rawls quoting a paper that disproves the solar/warming connection as proof of the solar/warming connection. Edited to correctly state the correlation between GCR and TSI.
  4. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    Tell you what brr, why don't you or Rawls explain to us how these other hypothetical solar factors are acting in the opposite direction of TSI, and solar activity in general? Rawls has cited a bunch of papers about pre-industrial solar forcings. He even has the gall to cite Lockwood and Frohlich's paper, Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. Some of the papers he references are about solar influences on local weather. It's a classic quantity over quality argument. Throw all the solar-climate related papers you can find at the wall and hope something sticks. It reeks of desperation. What he has not done is answer the challenge I posed above. Until you or he can, you've got nothing other than a bunch of transparently desperate hand waving. You don't even have a working hypothesis.
  5. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    Tom @89: And there you go again with a singularity comparison. There is more to the sun than TSI. Once you admit that, maybe we can all work together to find out what else there is to the sun.
  6. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    brr @88, I said, @86:
    "If you want, you can simplify that to: TSI has been decreasing, therefore, it is not the Sun. You, however, have claimed that Dana, and I have argued: It's not Galactic Cosmic Rays, therefore it is not the sun. If you cannot recognize the difference between those two sentences, there is no point in discussing anything with you."
    You respond by saying:
    "The article finishes by stating solar activity has been flat, and recently a downturn, which does not explain modern warming. IE: "It's not GCRs, thus it's not the sun"."
    With breathtaking gall, you also claim to be misinterpreted. Regardless, there is no point in discussion with somebody who shows such overwhelming inability to parse an argument.
  7. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    @dana & Tom: Both of you need to listen very carefully, as you are mis-interpreting what I am saying. I will try to make this very clear. Rawls say, and even cites 30 odd studies since 1990, which show the observed solar influence is not fully explained by TSI. He's saying, that there is more to the sun than TSI. For the FOD Rawls reviewer feedback explained this and the result was the addition of the explanation to the SOD which uses GCR as an example of what could be the extra component of solar. He claims that is a game-changer. The article above focuses on GCRs and (rightly) shows that observed GCR readings to not explain modern warming. This is in line with later IPCC statements in the SOD. What the article does not address is the observed difference in solar forcing to TSI. It leaves that question mark still in existence. The article finishes by stating solar activity has been flat, and recently a downturn, which does not explain modern warming. IE: "It's not GCRs, thus it's not the sun". Tom, you also validated this statement in your comments. But what Rawls is saying, is that the 30 odd studies he cited show that the sun is more than just TSI. True, TSI has been flat, but there are various other indicators which have been quite active, for example some of the magnetic indicators at certain ranges. Rawls claim that there's more to the sun than TSI has not been addressed here. The article, and commenters, focus on TSI as the only solar indicator. It is not. Thus this article does nothing to address Rawls claims. It addresses the example that the IPCC used to explain the difference in observed solar influence and TSI, but nothing to address the actual difference (no matter what caused the difference).
  8. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    Composer 99 @83, I believe you have identified one of the most ludicrous aspects of Rawls argument. As it happens, the total Radiative Forcing since preindustrial times (1750) of anthropogenic factors is 2.4 +/-0.6 W/m^2. In contrast, the radiatiave forcing from changes in TSI over the same period is 0.04 +/-0.06 W/m^2. Even if we use the upper range of that estimate, changes in TSI are approximately a twentieth of anthropogenic forcings, and a sixth of the error in anthropogenic forcings, meaning they can be (but are not) ignored as insignificant. Rawls has not established that total solar forcing, or TSI plus a amplifying factor unique to solar forcing, is greater than TSI. All he has established is that there are some studies suggesting that possibility - while he studiously ignores other studies suggesting the contrary. Never-the-less, we can play a game of "let's pretend" and grant him his stronger claim. Even with this pretense, however, his argument depends essentially on ignoring the low value of the TSI. It comes down to arguing that because: Effective solar forcing is greater than TSI; therefore, Effective solar forcing is greater than Anthropogenic forcings. Or, more simply: X > 0.04 => X > 2.4
  9. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    brr @81, my paragraph, and Dana's article are quite clear. The nature of the argument presented in both is: TSI has been decreasing while the globe is warming, therefore, the sun has not caused the global warming even if TSI has been amplified. If you want, you can simplify that to: TSI has been decreasing, therefore, it is not the Sun. You, however, have claimed that Dana, and I have argued: It's not Galactic Cosmic Rays, therefore it is not the sun. If you cannot recognize the difference between those two sentences, there is no point in discussing anything with you. Further, if you will not state that you recognize the difference, and withdraw your silly misrepresentations of Dana (and now my) words, I would request the moderators withdraw your posting privileges. Somebody unable or unwilling to recognize that clear difference is no posting in good faith, and therefore has no part in a civilized discussion.
  10. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    brr @81, if you think the above article argues "if it isn't GCR it isn't the sun", you need to re-read it. I'd suggest starting with Figure 2 and the section it's in, with the heading "Solar Activity is Down". "It's the sun" is such a weak argument, I thought the contrarians had moved past it. I hadn't seen this one in quite a while. Now suddenly it's making a comeback - maybe they cycled through all the other myths and have come full circle back to this loser of an argument. I mean seriously, trying to blame the sun for global warming when solar activity is down? That's kind of a joke.
  11. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    Re Smith's comments at 79, my response is essentially what Dana said @80. Additionally, Rawls agreed to the terms of the IPCC review process which excplicitly stated that reviewers should not share the content with the public, "The IPCC considers its draft reports, prior to acceptance, to be pre-decisional, provided in confidence to reviewers, and not for public distribution, quotation or citation." Rawls knowingly renaged on those terms for politcal/ideological gain, that much is clear, regardless of his claimsto the contrary. The real motivation for such unethical actions by fake skeptics is so transparent it is laughable. So only people playing "games" here are people like Rawls and those fake skeptics and those in denial about AGW who are openly endorsing, perpetuating and aiding his attempts to misrepresent the science, and that includes some people on this thread. But we have long learned to expect those kind of games from fake skeptics and those in denial about the theory of AGW ;)
  12. Thawing of Permafrost Expected to Cause Significant Additional Global Warming, Not yet Accounted for in Climate Predictions
    Johnb and Soundoff, The Scientific American article said that the CO2 emissions increased 3% last year, not atmospheric concentration. There is not a direct one to one correspondence, since not all CO2 entering the atmospher is anthropogenic.
  13. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    brr: I have read through your comments and it seems to me you are arguing something that is orthogonal to the point of the OP. I assume you think otherwise, so perhaps you can enlighten me. As far as I am aware, the IPCC draft report quite correctly notes that:
    There is very high confidence that natural forcing is a small fraction of the anthropogenic forcing. [Emphasis mine.] In particular, over the past three decades (since 1980), robust evidence from satellite observations of the TSI [total solar irradiance] and volcanic aerosols demonstrate a near-zero (–0.04 W m–2) change in the natural forcing compared to the anthropogenic AF increase of ~1.0 ± 0.3 W m–2.
    (Note the 2-order-of-magnitude difference in forcings.) The paragraph that Rawls asserts is a game-changer does not contradict the above statement in any meaningful fashion:
    Many empirical relationships have been reported between GCR [galactic cosmic rays] or cosmogenic isotope archives and some aspects of the climate system [cites omitted]. The forcing from changes in total solar irradiance alone does not seem to account for these observations, implying the existence of an amplifying mechanism such as the hypothesized GCR-cloud link.
    Despite this non-relation, Rawls is attempting to claim the latter paragraph undermines the former in some crucial respect. It is this transparent mendacity that dana1981 is addressing in the OP. Was it your intention to defend Rawls on his central point (that the unquantified cosmogenic effects on climate upend the quantified difference in anthropogenic vs natural forcings)? If you were in fact arguing something else entirely, can you please clarify?
  14. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    “Gee, it might not even be an amplification at all, but a separate forcing. There's just too much uncertainty ATM to say one way or the other”. brr, have you read Naomi Oreskes “Merchants of Doubt”? One things for sure, they keep on keeping on!
  15. This is Global Warming - A Lesson for Monckton and Co.
    No doubt about that from me.
  16. Thawing of Permafrost Expected to Cause Significant Additional Global Warming, Not yet Accounted for in Climate Predictions
    Nicolas @ 3, it depends on which convention is being used for that 43-135Gt, Gt of CO2, or Gt of the C alone. If the latter then an extra 1Gt per year would be more than 10% as much C as human emissions, so not so small an addition. The convention used needs to be clarified.
  17. New research from last week 50/2012
    The author of the classic paper this week is an obscure Irish physicist of the 19th century. But at the University I attended in the 1970s (then University College Galway, now National University of Ireland Galway, in Stoney's time Queens's College Galway), he was a legend. In 1891, Stoney predicted a unit of electric charge he called the electron and laid the theoretical groundwork for it's discovery 8 years later. JJ Thomson won a Nobel Prize for that feat. Stoney was the first to do soemthing that has been repeated since, most recently by Peter Higgs. It is little gems like that which make we appreciate Ari's weekly post, but I suppose I will have to do the source directly from now on!
  18. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    Tom @74: I'm sorry, but did you actually read Dana's article? It is pretty specific that if it isn't GCR it isn't the sun. You even do it in your final sentence of the first paragraph of your reply, "and hence cannot explain the warming". Have you also read the 30 odd papers that Rawls has cited to support his position? I haven't read all, but the 5 I have read were pretty adamant that some other influence from the sun is required to account for the solar forcing deficit from TSI alone. Gee, it might not even be an amplification at all, but a separate forcing. There's just too much uncertainty ATM to say one way or the other.
  19. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    Smith @79 - Wrong. Debunking Rawls' misinformation and misinterpretation of the IPCC text is not playing games. I'm not saying "well maybe this is what the IPCC really meant", I'm saying "here's what the IPCC text said and here's what the peer-reviewed literature says". SkS also did not support Gleick's actions in the Heartland affair, and we certainly did not take Heartland's statements out of context or put our own spin on their meaning.
  20. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    dana @68 - But his is not true. You are most certainly playing the game. You have a post here about it, which was reprinted in the Guardian and you have participated the comment sections of both. You have in fact spend a great deal of time playing the game. Albatross @76 - How would you rate the ethics of Rawls leaking the document to the Peter Gleick affair. I seem to remember strong support for Gleick's "leak", why not the same in this instance?
  21. Thawing of Permafrost Expected to Cause Significant Additional Global Warming, Not yet Accounted for in Climate Predictions
    Thanks Soundoff, I got my 3% figure for this past year from the following article in Scientific American. Other publications have also picked up on it. I believe that previous years have shown similar being in a rising trend from 2.6%. Always happy to be corrected. Johnb http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=global-co2-emissions-from
  22. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    brr @33... Actually there is a very high level of certainty that humans are the cause of the warming of the past 50 years. AR4 puts it at >90% certainty. The APS and AMS both state that it is "incontrovertible."
  23. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    @FDG #135: Dana has a very strict moral code. He will never shoot someone down who has already shot himself/herself in the foot.
  24. Thawing of Permafrost Expected to Cause Significant Additional Global Warming, Not yet Accounted for in Climate Predictions
    It seems to defeat the purpose if a press release and report can only be accessed by a username and password. Or am I missing something?
  25. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    Composer99 @75, "Rawls is grasping at straws, plain and simple." Quite right Composer. As are those here (and elsewhere) who are trying so very hard to defend and justify his unethical actions, not to mention his twisting of the draft text. Same old nonsense and games from the fake skeptics.
  26. BEST Results Consistent with Human-Caused Global Warming
    Hi, I have taken all comments to heart and taken a step further. Indeed if I use the Best data from Fig. 1 above, starting from the time period when their data is plotted as well as land based GISS, Hadcru, and NOAA and simply determine the best linear fit to log base 2 of the corresponding CO2 concentration ratio versus temperature increase, I get a c.s. of 3 degrees C as BEST states they get. Now I have also considered the recent data from Foster and Rahmsdorf through 2011, which had the AGW isolated by multiple regression against indexes for ENSO, solar, volcanoes and which has a best straight line through the data drawn by those authors. Applied to that same straight line this simple analysis yields climate sensitivity of 1.94 degrees C, and it stands to reason it would be less than for the land based data from that BEST graph. The Arctic data shows a larger over all delta T than either world or land based from Best, but the Arctic data has a pronounced wiggle to it that makes it impossible to approximate with a simple model, IMO. I wonder if anyone is trying a multiple regression analysis for the Arctic data such as Foster and Rahmsdorf did for the global data? Finally, I presume the quantity I get by doing this simple procedure is called the "transient" C.S?
  27. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    FGD135: There is no "game-changing" admission by the IPCC whatsoever. The sentence that Rawls is hung up on relates strictly to the relationship between solar activity and cosmogenic influence on climate. Unless the IPCC draft report goes on to upend the quantified forcings from AR4 and the rest of the literature, that influence is still orders of magnitude smaller compared to the anthropogenic forcings (greenhouse gases, land-use changes). Rawls is grasping at straws, plain and simple.
  28. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    brr @67, neither Dana nor I have argued that, it if it is not cosmic rays, it is not the sun. Just as with the IPCC, you are putting words into our mouths. Dana has argued that even if a amplifying factor exists that amplifies the effects of TSI and no other forcing, that amplifying factor would have amplified the reduction in TSI in the later half of the twentieth century and hence cannot explain the warming in the later half of the twentieth century. I have argued something simpler still. My argument is that, if all you know about something is that "it is something else", then you know nothing at all and cannot exclude hypotheses on that basis. If all you know is that the purported amplifying factor is that there was one, you do not know that it will not equally amplify GHG forcings, or even that it will not preferentially amplify GHG forcings. Ergo you cannot presume that the amplifying factor will increase the strength of the solar forcing relative to the GHG forcing in the late twentieth century. This point is driven home by one (indeed, the best of) the three studies cited by the IPCC - Bond et al, (2001) - which connects ice rafting events with variations in solar activity as determined by cosmogenic nuclides. Interestingly they propose a mechanism for the variation - a feedback through changes in the thermohaline circulation. That mechanism is temperature driven, however. Consequently it will be more strongly effected by ghg forcing due to polar amplification than it is by solar forcing. The only reason the Holocene record ties it to solar forcing is that GHG forcing was more or less constant over that period. So, what evidence have you or Rawls presented that the "something else" is not this, or some other mechanism that equally amplifies GHG forcings? None, of course. Rather you have simply used ignorance as an argument. What is more, you do not even know that the purported amplification is real. As with Rawls, you simply neglect the meaning of "seems". A second study cited by the IPCC - Dengel et al (2009) - illustrates this. They find a correlation between growth of trees and cosmic rays in the period 1961-2005 in the northern British Isles. Of course, as the IPCC mentions, a correlation between cosmic rays and cloud cover has also been found in the British Isles, but not elsewhere. That fact shoots down the cosmic ray connection. The physical laws are the same everywhere - and if cosmic rays do not significantly seed clouds elsewhere, the cloud cover correlation in the British Isles was just a coincidence. However, a correlation between cloud cover and growth in trees is unlikely to be merely coincidental. So it appears that Dengel has merely found further evidence of the coincidental correlation between cosmic rays and cloud cover in the British Isles. The simple fact is that all you can say from the IPCC statement is that: 1) There seems to be evidence of a factor amplifying solar forcing; but 2) The only proposed mechanism of that amplification is not responsible for it. From that it follows only that, either the apparent amplification was not real, or some unknown factor with unknown effects on other forcings has amplified solar forcings in the past.
  29. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    And I respectfully suggest from you Dana (and others) that you may want to leave those who want to live in an alternate universe to themselves until they wake up by themselves. You have to understand ... their dream is just sooo goooood ...
  30. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    dana @68, You are already playing games - pretending Rawls' sentence is "poorly formed" and pretending not to comprehend brr's question. Just what is "poorly formed" about this sentence from Rawls: "The forcing from changes in total solar irradiance alone does not seem to account for these observations, implying the existence of an amplifying mechanism such as the hypothesized GCR-cloud link." Note the word "an". This word means that the amplifying mechanism could be ANYTHING, with GCR just one possibility. You went to some length to shoot down GCRs, but that was missing the point of Rawls' essay. Rawls' point was that the chapter 7 admissions are a game-changer. Can you please have another go at shooting him down? I respectfully suggest you missed on your first go. Thanks.
  31. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    It occurs to me that the Galactic Coincidence part of this theory that asserts that the changes in the GCR and Solar activity that allow the timing of warming to so perfectly coincided with our release of CO2 as to cause us to be fooled about the cause of our warming, needs to be pointed out too. The odds of this actually are, particularly given that there isn't any change to speak of in the solar activity or the GCRs in the relevant time frames, quite small. This whole business is complete rubbish. Rawls needs to be taken behind the woodshed for his part, and the rest of the mob at Watts has completely lost what little mind they were possessed of. There is no convincing ideologues though. Not ever.
  32. Debunking Climate Myths from Politicians
    [repeated snips]
    Moderator Response: [RH] I've deleted several posts here for off-topic and accusations of deception. If you wish to contribute to the conversation please first review the comment policies so that your voice can be heard.
  33. 2012 SkS Weekly Digest #50
    Senator Whitehouse exposes the deniers in the US congress factual terms- Pollution? Its not a problem- all we need to do is go back to the Gilded Ages- AGW? Something the Scientific elite want to do in order to redistribute wealth. That the climate this very moment in rainy Connecticut this dark morning has reached the point of no return (the same globally) Avoiding 2 degrees above the PI level- now is not possible. To many this concept seems unimportant.
  34. Thawing of Permafrost Expected to Cause Significant Additional Global Warming, Not yet Accounted for in Climate Predictions
    I'm quite surprised at this because until now I thought the permafrost thawing represented a much larger thread. If I read the above correctly the average yearly addition to the CO2 output will be about 1GT (43-135GT this century). Human output is currently around 30-35GT/y. So the 1GT/y seems like just a small addition. I must be missing something because a 39% of total emissions is mentioned.
  35. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    Just to clarify what I stated in @55 (as we seem to be mincing words in this comment thread): [...] I am anything but a climate change proponent as I - just like others here on SkS and elsewhere - am working towards [anthropogenic] climate change not becoming any worse than it already is. So, if anything, I am an opponent of [anthropogenic] climate change.
  36. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    Tom @65 - indeed, the mere fact that we're arguing about this sentence is enough for me to put money on both the sentence changing in the final report, and the contrarians spazzing out when that happens. Followed by me rolling my eyes and hopefully being able to ignore their childishness, because we've already had to put way too much effort into debunking a myth that should never have been born.
  37. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    brr @67 - my answer is that I'm not going to play games, I'm not going to read what I want to read into a poorly formed sentence in a draft document, I'm going to wait for the final report. As should you, as Rawls should have, as should everyone.
  38. Thawing of Permafrost Expected to Cause Significant Additional Global Warming, Not yet Accounted for in Climate Predictions
    I ran some quick calculations for you, Johnb. A straight line projection forward for atmospheric CO2 ppm gives 415 ppm in 2022 using the slope since 2000. That’s close enough to your estimate. A straight line projection to year 2100 gives 577 ppm, not doubled yet from today’s level (but it would be doubled from pre-industrial levels). The rate of increase is slightly exponential, not linear, so the proper number should be higher, maybe near 900 ppm in a worst case BAU scenario. The concentration of CO2 did increase by over 3 ppm last year (larger than any prior year in the record) but this increase represents only a 0.9% rise, not 3%. A 0.9% increase means a doubling time of 77 years. Most prior years increased 0.5% to 0.6%, therefore 0.9% might be anomalous and an overstatement of situation.
  39. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    dana @62: You didn't answer my question: What do they actually mean? Regardless of the GCR link in the paragraph, my interpretation is that they used it as an example, and that it could be something else. Hence the use of "such as". Tom @64: Please try to understand, I was pointing out that saying "it can't be GCR therefore it can't be the sun" is not good science, especially when they implied it could be something else. Invalidating one example does not invalidate all examples. Regardless of how you say it, when the IPCC says that forcing from TSI alone doesn't seem to account for observational data, saying "it was not GCRs" still leaves the door open for something else to account for the seeming difference between solar observations and TSI forcing. It most likely isn't GCRs as studies have shown, but it is probably something else. Saying "there's no other explanation" does not account for something we haven't found yet. And that's Rawls point. He got the IPCC to seem like they're backing down from the "it's not the sun, silly" reference in AR4 by getting them to include that sentence. Like pointed out above this is just a draft so will probably be struck before publishing. For that we shall have to wait and see.
  40. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    As the peer review in the IPCC drafts is a slow process, the writers of such a report should expand on things like this , I know, that states it's only 5 meters in there, but I guess West Antarctic contributes somewhat.
  41. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    dana @62:
    "And I'm sure there will be a big uproar amongst the contrarians when that happens, because they're not interested in anything but generating controversy."
    A prediction you can bank on, based on a very well grounded theory.
  42. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    brr @59: 1) We are proponents of climate science. Climate science as it happens, predicts AGW, and we oppose negligently permiting continued AGW to the ruination of our descendants. That's not hard to grasp, now, is it? 2) While we're into micro parsing, would you care to explain what "seem" means, as in "The forcing from changes in total solar irradiance alone does not seem to account for these observations". 3) Neither you nor Rawl's have shown anything to suggest the explanation is not just a climate sensitivity in the upper end of the IPCC range. What is quite clear is that, whatever the explanation of this seeming problem, it is: a) not Galactic Cosmic Rays; and b) there is no other remotely plausible mechanism proposed by AGW deniers. Evidently, however, Rawls and you think that an argument from ignorance should trump real science.
  43. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    Now that J.Romm has revealed that the IPCC draft includes a claim there's a 10% chance of sea ice growth in the next ten years, could it be a time for a "REAL climate report" which would include the "known unknowns" and their fullest extent. Of course, the report would be unofficial. In order to keep the report short, the consensus of the AGW should be stated in some 10 pages. Then there should be the list of unknowns and a short survey of potential importance of each. As the deniers are not convinced of the Anthropogenic part of AGW, the only scenario used should be the BAU scenario. Of course this report would not solve anything, nor offer any proposed courses of action, but it might still be more readable to deniers than the current one. The style of consensus statements should be something like: "Current 2012 greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere will eventually lead to a sea level rise of at least 6 meters" and leave out the probability since deniers won't understand probabilities.
  44. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    brr, the quote simply talks about reported relationships in some studies between GCRs or cosmogenic isotope and "some aspects of the climate system". I believe the text goes on to state that most research has shown GCRs are ineffective at seeding clouds. According to Rawls this text was inserted between the First and Second order drafts. It doesn't make much sense and will probably be revised or removed in later drafts. This is why it's dumb to be commenting on draft documents. Regardless, it doesn't say what you claim it says, and it's likely to change before the document goes final anyway. And I'm sure there will be a big uproar amongst the contrarians when that happens, because they're not interested in anything but generating controversy.
  45. 2012 SkS Weekly Digest #50
    Philippe @3 - The Escalator has been updated (but you have to click the button to see it). I just haven't had time to do a blog post announcing it.
  46. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    dana @60: I fail to understand how interpreting the phrase "such as" to mean "for example" is putting my own spin on it. In every other usage of the phrase that's exactly what it means. However, if it does mean something different in science can you please tell me how it's used in science so that I may better understand IPCC documents (drafts and future documents). In terms of the paragraph in question, it is a pretty important distinction.
  47. Philippe Chantreau at 13:51 PM on 17 December 2012
    2012 SkS Weekly Digest #50
    Now that the climatological year is over, is it possible to update the escalator animation displayed on the home page with all data up to 2012?
  48. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    brr, you're putting your own spin on the IPCC statement, which is still draft and subject to change anyway, and claiming that's what they really mean. Sorry, I'm not interested in playing that game.
  49. IPCC Draft Report Leaked, Shows Global Warming is NOT Due to the Sun
    Composer99 @58: Proponent - Noun: A person who advocates a theory, proposal, or project. Synonyms: supporter - advocate - proposer Actually, proponents of AGW are the people who support the scientific theory. Not the other way around. BaerbelW @55: Be careful defining yourself as "opponent of climate change". Since climate change is a natural process, one could then say you're an "opponent of nature". Shouldn't you refer to yourself as an "opponent of AGW"? dana @article: One thing I just noticed is the quoted IPCC paragraph by Rawls says, "implying the existence of an amplifying mechanism such as". They are using GCR's as an example of something that might cause the TSI deficit in explaining solar forcing. Basically the paragraph is stating: 1. Something else is needed other than TSI to explain observed total solar forcing. 2. Here's one example of what it might be (since GCR has been the focus of significant study the last few years). 3. We're not sure what it is, it might even be Solar Furries. Sorry, but invalidating one example doesn't invalidate the possibility that something else might explain the observational differences.
    Moderator Response: [DB] Please refrain from the usage of all-caps to make a point, as that is in violation of the Comments Policy (usage converted to underlined lower case).
  50. 2012 SkS Weekly Digest #50
    Kudos Sheldon Whitehouse. It's people like him who are the heroes in politics. Let's hope that it's a trend that catches on.

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