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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 53751 to 53800:

  1. It's not bad
    No, Eric. I was objecting to AHuntington's apparent claim that desertification was a primarily human-caused phenomenon.
  2. Extreme weather isn't caused by global warming
    @AHuntington1 #56: As they say, "What's good for the goose is good for the gander" Please Google "Climate change and desertification" and read some of materials listed. You just might learn something new.
  3. Extreme weather isn't caused by global warming
    @AHuntington1#56: Thanks for the providing the link to the peer-reviewed paper, "Nature and causes of land degradation and desertification in Libya: Need for sustainable land management." In the paper's Abstract, the authors state: "Among others, overexploitation of natural resources, inappropriate land use planning, insufficient water resources etc. are the main factors escalating the process of desertification and deteriorating environmental quality." Some of the factors cited are caused by human activity and others are not even identified. My position is that the natural environment existing at any location on Earth has been and will continue to be affected by changes in the planet's global climate system. From my perspective, your sweeping assertion that desertification is primarily caused by human activity at the local and regional scale may hold true in the short-run, but will not hold true in the long-run. In the long-run, desertification has been and will continue to be driven by changes in the Earth's global climate system caused primarily by the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. Note: When I refer to the "global climate system" I mean the standard definition used by climate scientists. The entire system includes the atmosphere, the aquasphere, the cyrosphere, the biosphere, and the lithosphere.
  4. 2012 SkS Weekly News Round-Up #1
    Must Read America's the only nation? Who broke into the Hadley Center email server?
  5. SkS: testimony to the potential of social media and the passion of volunteers
    Clockwork: Not quite Friday Funny . "Apparently Mr. Cook doesn’t feel the Nature editorial putting science on notice saying: ‘Better models are needed before exceptional events can be reliably linked to global warming’ is worth heeding. It’s climate activist comedy gold." Look at said editorial at Nature . Apparently mr Watts can only read bold lettering so he got stuck in the first line and didn't manage to read what follows: "As climate change proceeds — which the record summer melt of Arctic sea-ice suggests it is doing at a worrying pace — nations, communities and individual citizens may begin to seek compensation for losses and damage arising from global warming."
  6. It's not bad
    On another thread AHuntington1 and DSL were debating the potential of Hadley cell expansion to cause drying in the horse latitudes which would be considered a negative consequence. While Hadley cells are expanding, the expansion is seasonal and it is unclear what will happen in the future, see http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2009JCLI2794.1. The effects of measured expansion in the Hadley cells depends greatly upon geography. The result over the ocean is fairly certain, there has been expansion. The result over land is very uncertain, see for example http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2538841/ in which they state that the greening of the Sahel is a potential (and rare) example of a beneficial tipping point. See section starting with "Sahara/Sahel and West African Monsoon (WAM)" and note that there are large uncertainties. Reading these two references I'm not even sure that Hadley expansion has any relevance at all in the Sahara and Sahel.
  7. SkS: testimony to the potential of social media and the passion of volunteers
    I'll have to admit to be a new user happy to stumble across your site. I have to say congratulations after reading your first paragraph. Technical acceptance with media and educational institutions sure to eventually overcome the dollars of denial.
  8. Extreme weather isn't caused by global warming
    AHuntington, thank you for the clarification from "desertification" to "anthropogenic desertification." For a minute there, I thought you were trying to blame the general process of desertification on humans. Humans can obviously cause desertification, but circulation-based desertification is the primary mechanism and has been for the duration.
  9. SkS: testimony to the potential of social media and the passion of volunteers
    Note to self: I *really* gotta get a new keyboard. This one makes ~way~ too many typos......;) To keep that from happening, you might want to refrain from visiting WUWT while sipping hot coffee. ;)
  10. SkS: testimony to the potential of social media and the passion of volunteers
    caerbannog: No problem. I've just discovered Web Workers, which have solved a major headache I had in developing the app (i.e. avoiding constant callbacks or freezing the browser during the calc). So I might be able to get the project moving again. Hope yours goes well.
  11. SkS: testimony to the potential of social media and the passion of volunteers
    NEWS FLASH: The SkS "Skunk Works" is located in John Cook's vast wine cellar. The fumes affect SkS authors everytime we meet there. Most of the George Soros funding received by SkS is used to pay for the travel expenses of SkS authors flying to and from their home location to Queensland, Australia. Until this year, we held an annual summer meeting in an igloo in the Arctic circle.
  12. It's not bad
    My understanding of AHuntington1's position so far: 1. CO2 will improve mitochondrial respiration, which he presents with evidence of small scale, controlled and very focused laboratory experiments. 2. His statement is presented without any evidence of an actually realized positive benefit in at least some living creatures, and certainly not all. 3. He self-admittedly makes no statement of the ultimate value of this benefit in the real world because he has not/will not put it into the context of all of the real world negative impacts that will accompany such a "benefit." 4. He has not (presumably because he agrees it does not exist) presented any evidence that such a benefit would mean that increased CO2 levels will ultimately be more beneficial than harmful to human civilization (which, in the end, is the whole point, isn't it?).
  13. PBS False Balance Hour - What's Up With That?
    Bernard@103....FaceTube. Get it right. >;-D
  14. SkS: testimony to the potential of social media and the passion of volunteers
    Just another quick note: I uploaded a "WattsBuster Light" zip file to tinyurl.com/WattsBusterLight. It does not include the GHCN temperature data, so is a much smaller download.
  15. SkS: testimony to the potential of social media and the passion of volunteers
    Note to self: I *really* gotta get a new keyboard. This one makes ~way~ too many typos......;)
  16. SkS: testimony to the potential of social media and the passion of volunteers
    JohnHartz@3: I *think* you meant, "repealed." >;-D To echo some here, I'm grateful for SkS and its wide and very deep database: I find I access it almost daily in combatting the denilati on other various blogs. I look forward to doing more to help address this critical issue and thank all the "regulars" for educating me way better, and faster, than going back to school. Anyway, by the time I *might* be able toa fford schooling again, 21 December will ahve come and gone. *Poof*.....:)
  17. SkS: testimony to the potential of social media and the passion of volunteers
    Just a quick note -- I forgot to include an important file in the "WattsBuster" package that I uploaded to the WattsBuster link. So to anyone downloaded the zip file at that link, you will need to download it again. Apologies to those with slow net connections. Note to Kevin C: As much as I'd like to help, I don't have any experience developing browser-based apps -- by the time I got up far enough on the learning curve to be of much help, someone else with real experience in that area could probably have that all pretty well wrapped up. But here's hoping that an experienced developer out there will take up that ball and run with it. It looks like a very worthwhile project.
  18. SkS: testimony to the potential of social media and the passion of volunteers
    One of my other regular science-based blogs routinely discusses the rhetoric and conspiracy-mongering of the anti-vaccine movement, both as an isolated instance of anti-science denialism and as a component of the wider phenomenonof "alternative medicine". That the behaviour of self-styled "skeptics" is indistinguishable from the behaviour of anti-vaccine activists (who may be found at such august fora as Age of Autism or Thinking Mom's Revolution) or alt-med charlatans such as Mike Adams or Joe Mercola speaks volumes.
  19. Dikran Marsupial at 21:27 PM on 20 September 2012
    It's not bad
    AHuntington1 I offer this as helpful advice. SkS is interested in a fair portrayal of the science. We would also wish these metabolic benefits to be considered if there is good evidence to suggest they actually exist. So far you have pointed to a mechanism that suggest that there may be an effect, but have not provided any evidence that unequivocally suggests there is a measurable effect in vivo all things being otherwise equal. Evidence of a change in glucose metabolism at altitude is not evidence of this as there all things are not equal as the reduction in atmospheric pressure means there is less oxygen, rather than just higher CO2. It doesn't surprise me that respiration is less efficient at altitude (as we are not evolutionarily highly adapted to life at altitude) and therefore requires more energy. As a result, we are skeptical of you claims, but are willing to be persuaded. Is there anyone other than yourself that is currently proposing this hypothesis?
  20. Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt to Levels Unseen in Millennia
    The Polyak-link is broken, there is an extra www.skepticalscience.com/ in the URL.
  21. SkS: testimony to the potential of social media and the passion of volunteers
    #13 - me neither!!!
  22. SkS: testimony to the potential of social media and the passion of volunteers
    It's worth pointing out that the SkS author community is made up of a larger pool of volunteers than is apparant from the team page. Also, as author of a handful of articles published at SkS over the past year or so, I can honestly testify that no World Government Eco-Nazi Billionaire funding has found it's way to me yet!
  23. SkS: testimony to the potential of social media and the passion of volunteers
    I've always enjoyed SkS for the factual content, so a big thank you. The Lewandowsky response though, is just hilarious. My favourite from one of the Watts threads (remember, Anthony is furious about skeptics being portrayed as conspiracists):
    POSTER: I also want to know why Jo Nova’s site shows a notice saying it has been ‘Suspended’. What is behind this? REPLY: DDoS attacks. She’s had a couple of threads outlining them. I wonder what sort of group might want to take down her website? Oh, wait. – Anthony
    Wonderful.
  24. PBS False Balance Hour - What's Up With That?
    And, btw, it is not "Dana's attribution" either, he only interprets the data, but has not done the research. That is to say, comments that find errors in posts are most welcome, so they can be corrected. Comments that point to different interpretations of the data used in a post, need to be made equally clear and are welcome when constructive.
  25. Extreme weather isn't caused by global warming
    AHuntingdon1 A: "Overgrazing can cause desertification" (not detested) BTW, this does not jibe with your comment @51, last paragraph B: "Desertification is observed, therefore overgrazing must have been happening" (incorrect conclusion, aka logical fallacy) Correct: Desertification can be caused by other factors aside from overgrazing, or any grazing. For instance, a change in climate, particularly increasing T alongside reduced rainfall, can cause desertification. When posting at SkS, try making cohesize statements as you would in a written text for students, not blurbs that can be misinterpreted. You maybe perceived as a troll.
  26. Bert from Eltham at 16:32 PM on 20 September 2012
    SkS: testimony to the potential of social media and the passion of volunteers
    I have donated vast sums to SKS and you still tell me off when I am scientifically wrong! Your integrity is something to be feared. This situation is just wrong as you should advocate what your backers want not what is real that is based on evidence. I do not know how you know that I do not know. All I know is you are not a nice person and worthy of much fruitless investigation. I will remain not yours seething in ignorance and hope! Bert
  27. SkS: testimony to the potential of social media and the passion of volunteers
    caerbannog and any other interested coders: One of my side projects has been re-implementing a computationally efficient version of the temperature record calculation in Javascript so you can run it in your browser (assuming it's a recent one) with no other software. I've currently got a rough working version which has options to switch between CRU-like or GISTEMP-like calculations from the CRU data (GHCN planned). You can also pull in the HadSST2/3 data to produce a land-ocean index. Results are graphed in the browser using an HTML5 canvas. In CRU-mode the calculation takes a few seconds, in GISTEMP mode a minute or two. The project is stalled because I'm working on a more important project. If anyone wants to get involved and make this come to fruition I'd be very happy.
  28. SkS: testimony to the potential of social media and the passion of volunteers
    I'm very annoyed with SkS. You've been running a conspiracy and yet I have not been invited to partake. Harrumph. (Insert sarccy smiley about here.)
  29. PBS False Balance Hour - What's Up With That?
    I would have thought GC had passed algebra. Guess not.
  30. It's not bad
    No, it doesn't help anything. You refuse to specify the benefits you anticipate from additional C02 in the atmosphere.
  31. SkS: testimony to the potential of social media and the passion of volunteers
    OK, I've been working on what I hope will turn out to be a useful instructional software package. I didn't know what to call it until skepticalscience provoked the latest Watts "melt-down". That inspired me to call it the "WattsBuster" package. ;) Basically, I built on the crude global-average temperature project that I had posted about here many moons ago -- I "duct-taped" an updated version of my global-temperature code together with gnuplot and the QGIS (Quantum Geographical Information System) app to produce a "pointy-clicky roll-your-own" global-temperature computation package. The package consists of a QGIS "client" plus a global temperature anomaly computation/display "server". To create the "client", I hacked at one of the QGIS plugins a bit to get it to extract the ID# of the station that was just clicked on and send it to the "server" side via a TCP socket connection. I then created a QGIS project file that when loaded into QGIS, creates a global map display overlain with clickable GHCN station locations. The server side (my simple global-anomaly code inside a TCP server-socket "wrapper" function) then launches a gnuplot session (via popen) that displays the raw and homogenized data of the station that was just clicked on. If you just click on a station on the QGIS map, the server app displays just the data for that station. If you hold down the control key while clicking on stations, the server app updates/displays global-average temperature anomalies based on the stations that were "ctrl-clicked" (i.e. each station that gets "clicked" on gets added to the average). The gnuplot display window shows results computed from raw and homogenized data, along with the offical NASA/GISS "meteorological stations" index for comparison. Below the global-average temperature plot in the gnuplot window is a plot of the number of the selected stations that actually reported data for any given year. So when the temperature estimates for the stations that you've selected deviate significantly from the NASA/GISS results for any given time-period, you can look to see how many (or how few) of your selected stations actually reported data for that time period. In my experimentation with this setup, I have found that by the time you've selected 30-40 stations (globally scattered) that report data for any given time period, the global-average results line up quite nicely with the NASA/GISS results. This holds true for both raw and homogenized data. It's really quite remarkable how few stations you need to produce global-average temperature results that line up nicely with NASA's. By the time you've selected a few dozen well-scattered stations, you will see that raw data, adjusted/homogenized data, rural data, urban data, etc. all produce similar results that line up amazingly well with the NASA results. I have found that the raw data results actually tend to match the NASA results a tad better than the adjusted data results do - go figure! I've tested the setup on Linux 32 bit, OSX 32/64 bit, and Windows-XP/Cygwin 32 bit systems (systems I had access to for testing). The stuff I've put together is useable, but it's definitely still in the rough "proof of concept" stage. It's definitely a bit of a project to get set up and running. Folks who have Linux boxen with all the trimmings will probably have the easiest time of it. It will be a bit more work for OSX and Windows systems. For OSX, you will need the gcc/g++ compiler package, a working X-server, and gnuplot (which I was able to compile from source-code very easily on a 6-year-old macbook). For Windows, you will need Cygwin/X (with the X-server, gcc/g++, and gnuplot packages). Cygwin/X includes gcc/g++ and gnuplot, but you have to make sure that those packages are selected by the Cygwin installer. QGIS is available at: www.qgis.org Gnuplot is available at: www.gnuplot.info Cygwin/X is available at: www.cygwin.com I've uploaded the whole ball of wax (including all the temperature data you need) to this easy-to-remember link: tinyurl.com/WattsBuster There's a README file in the package that explains (hopefully clearly) how to get everything up and running.
  32. It's not bad
    when I say overall, I mean including every other potential factor (eg. maybe the analysis would add points for increased rates of mitochondrial respiration and take points off for old people dying of heat stroke).
  33. PBS False Balance Hour - What's Up With That?
    It has been a while since I commented here
    'geoffchambers', is that you?
  34. It's not bad
    doug_bostrom, let me clarify my meaning here, I am not making predictions on net effects regarding the overall cost benefit analysis of anthropogenic Co2 emissions. I am making a claim on the specific effects that elevated Co2 has on the organism, which should be included in any cost benefit analysis. I am not claiming that anthropogenic Co2 emissions are either good or bad- overall. A missing factor in any cost benefit analysis can skew the result one way or the other. Does that help clear up the issue?
  35. SkS: testimony to the potential of social media and the passion of volunteers
    Brilliant writing John. Am I the only one thinking there must be a book/movie deal in this?
  36. PBS False Balance Hour - What's Up With That?
    (-snip-). Can any of you explain that given Dana's attribution of 110% of climate change to CO2?
    Moderator Response: [DB] The endless complaining about moderation (snipped above) does you disservice and accomplishes the very thing you complain about: you force the moderation staff to intervene. Either find a different venue to complain in or cease with the complaints & offer up substantive comments that add to the discussion, not detract from it.
  37. Extreme weather isn't caused by global warming
    John Hartz, well here is one piece of documentation implicating overgrazing (a complete land management issue) as a causative factor in desertification. http://www.academicjournals.org/ajb/PDF/pdf2011/17Oct/Saad%20et%20al.pdf There are many more- just google overgrazing and desertification if you wish to access them (or I will post more). Bernard J., Of course rumen-adapted bacteria primarily survive by living in the rumen of a grazer- I didn't mean to imply that they survive outside the animal for long.- lol I am talking about the bacterial carcasses, water, fiber, nitrogen etc. that the fecal matter and urine of massive herds of ruminants provide to decomposers on the drier soil surface- extending their lifespan a little further through the hot bacterial winter. Ruminants fertilize, chop grass, and till the earth's surface simultaneously. Lay out my non sequitur for me please, I am having trouble seeing it.
  38. SkS: testimony to the potential of social media and the passion of volunteers
    Andy@4, That's a standard practice of most "skeptic"-criminals, including those who stole the East Anglia emails and later distorted Phil Jones' correspondence. All of that described with details in Mike Mann's book "Hockey Stick and Climate Wars": arguably one of the best documentary books on this subject.
  39. It's not bad
    Ahuntington1: I am not making predictions on net effects That's a remarkable typo. Reminds me of the epic crash of the ski jumper that was shown as part of the program intro for ABC Sports events. Just seemed to go on forever!
  40. SkS: testimony to the potential of social media and the passion of volunteers
    I'm reminded to put in a plug for PICS. Those are good folks, they arranged a fine tour, got radio shows, etc. IF you ever get a chance to go, try to do, not just Vancouver and Victoria, but go to Prince George, at U of Northern British Columbia, about an hour's flight from Vancouver. They've done a great job on sustainability and they love to see outside speakers.
  41. PBS False Balance Hour - What's Up With That?
    Bernard @102 Seen the video a few times now, and I agree. The responsible action is column A. However, the possibility of either those two columns occurring, is small. The probability of futures lies mostly in between those two scenarios presented in the video. Take column A. The possibility that humans are not impacting climate at all, is minuscule. Same as column B, the possibility that humans will completely destroy climate, is minuscule. Thus the weight of probability is in the middle somewhere. Thus single-focused action (or inaction) is not correct. It's some balance of middling action (in economic terms). With knowledge we can reduce the pool of possibilities and narrow in. Thus reducing the cost to human society whilst dealing with the problem. But throwing everything into one basket, is a bad investment. If everything goes into the basket, there's nothing supporting it.
  42. Extreme weather isn't caused by global warming
    @AHuntington1 #51: You have conveniently ignored my request to provide documentation for your assertions. Personal opinion and sweeping generalizations have virtually no value in a discussion of scientific evidence and findings.
  43. Extreme weather isn't caused by global warming
    Bacteria within arid environments (which are usually grasslands) primarily survive the dry season's "bacterial holocaust" by living in the rumen of a grazer.
    No, rumen-adapted bacteria primarily survive by living in the rumen of a grazer. Bacteria that live in arid environments have other adaptations to survive, including sporulation and simple dispersal by wind, water, and/or on fomites. Internal bacterial communities are remarkably resistant things, and don't much allow externally-adapted species to board the ark whenever the rains don't come. Apart from this, there is a gaping logical fallacy in your overall argument about climate change and land use. The form is:
    If A, then B. B, therefore A.
    I wonder if you realise what it is?
  44. SkS: testimony to the potential of social media and the passion of volunteers
    If anyone sees any quotes mined from the stolen private forum, I would urge them to pay attention to the ellipses. In one quoted passage that I saw recently, there were eight ellipses. You can bet that the editing was done to remove context and qualifiers in the original and to try to frame the comment in the worst possible light.
  45. Extreme weather isn't caused by global warming
    whoops...please excuse the grammar. i forgot the old adage, "post once, edit twice"..
  46. PBS False Balance Hour - What's Up With That?
    Dale at #93. I'm also impressed by your comment. Kudos. Apply the same discrimination to the body of scientific evidence, and I might just have to 'friend' you on FaceSpace. Or MyBook. Or whatever. ;-)
  47. Extreme weather isn't caused by global warming
    DSL, that is fascinating! This completely makes sense, as wetter regions can handle a high level of mismanagement (such as overgrazing) in comparison to drier regions with more sporadic temporal fluctuations in rainfall. As the planet warms regional rainfall patterns would change (horse latitudes begin drying), this makes the local environment have higher fluctuations in rainfall (and drier) and more susceptible to mismanagement (such as overgrazing) and subsequent desertification. For this reason anthropogenic desertification will always be faster in environments with higher seasonal fluctuation in rainfall over places with a less seasonal fluctuation in rainfall.
  48. PBS False Balance Hour - What's Up With That?
    Further to Rob Honeycutt's comment at #56 regarding Dale's comment at #4:
    Well, not without taxing your own population into poverty...
    Dale might like to ponder the implications of The Most Terrifying Video You'll Ever See. And if, after watching the video, Dale still thinks that his fears trump Greg Craven's challenge, I would invite Dale to post a counter-analysis here actually refuting Craven's summary of the choices that we face.
  49. SkS: testimony to the potential of social media and the passion of volunteers
    @John Cook: Nice article but you forgot to mention that all will be revealed on Dec 21 of this year.
  50. Extreme weather isn't caused by global warming
    John Hartz, essentially, yes I do believe that the spread of the Sahara has been largely the result of mismanagement of land. Increasing rates of desertification across the globe are the result of the same mismanagement. When I say ecological perspective, I mean a perspective that takes into account the ability of bio-diverse ecosystems (or lack thereof) to influence local climate and desertification in general (water cycles, decomposition cycles, solar cycles, mineral cycles, carbon cycles). Ecological systems have evolved for millions of years in order to withstand and thrive in conditions with extreme variations in local rainfall over time. As humans learn to work with and exploit these natural systems, the "negative" aspects of more sporadic rain will be reduced and the positive aspects enhanced.

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