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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Is extreme weather caused by global warming?

What the science says...

Select a level... Basic Intermediate

Global warming amplifies the risk factors for extreme weather events - and that is all that Climate Science claims.

Climate Myth...

Extreme weather isn't caused by global warming

"The 30 major droughts of the 20th century were likely natural in all respects; and, hence, they are "indicative of what could also happen in the future," as Narisma et al. state in their concluding paragraph. And happen they will. Consequently, the next time a serious drought takes hold of some part of the world and the likes of Al Gore blame it on the "carbon footprints" of you and your family, ask them why just the opposite of what their hypothesis suggests actually occurred over the course of the 20th century, i.e., why, when the earth warmed - and at a rate and to a degree that they claim was unprecedented overthousands of years - the rate-of-occurrence of severe regional droughts actually declined." (source: CO2 Science)

At-a-glance

Have you experienced an extreme weather event?

The answer to that question first requires a definition for 'extreme' weather. What threshold must be passed for 'bad' weather to take on the distinction of being 'extreme'?

The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) defines an extreme weather event as, “an event that is rare at a particular place and time of year”. So we're getting somewhere now, although we're still left with 'rare', which is not a precise term. But we have to be pragmatic about such things. It's fair to say that torrential rain, for example, is common enough seasonally in the world's Monsoon belts but infrequent in deserts, so 'rare' in that latter case is a justifiable word to use.

When those Monsoon-affected parts of the world experience torrential rain sufficient to submerge vast areas of a country beneath flood-waters, we can agree that's pretty extreme, too. Basic physics tells us that for every degree Celsius of extra warmth, air can carry 7% more moisture. So the potential for heavier rains in a warming world is obvious. The IPCC use strictly-defined categories of probability. In AR6, the probability of an increase in heavy precipitation events is given as "Likely on a global scale, over a majority of land regions". That probability is described in terms of their, "increased frequency, intensity, and/or amount of heavy precipitation". 'Likely' means they are 66-100% certain this will happen.

National weather agencies are able to compare weather events against a baseline for which they have good data-coverage. In most countries, such coverage has been in place since the mid 20th Century, but in some, such as the UK, the data go back for another 100 years. So if a record in terms of heat or daily rainfall amount does get broken, that's significant.

In July 2022, for example, the UK saw extraordinarily high temperatures with a daily maximum of 40.3°C recorded at Coningsby in Lincolnshire. This was the first time 40°C had ever been recorded in the UK. But more astonishingly, a total of 46 other weather stations exceeded the previous UK record of 38.7°C. In addition, overnight minimum temperatures widely exceeded anything recorded before. That scorching heat wave, coming on top of drought conditions, had tremendous impacts both in terms of lives lost and fire-related damage. Again, that's significant.

The problem is that in a warming world, 40°C days in the UK can be expected to become more frequent as the decades pass by. In a world where global warming continues unabated, yesterday's extreme becomes next century's normal. The trend of, "warmer and/or more frequent hot days and nights over most land areas", is described in AR6 as, "virtually certain". In the strictly-defined categories of probability adopted by the IPCC, 'virtually certain' can only be used where there is 99-100% probability.

So the take-home is that some, but not all weather-types are liable to be amplified in their severity and frequency by global warming. Heat, drought, fire-weather and long-duration heavy rains: surely that's enough to be dealing with.

Please use this form to provide feedback about this new "At a glance" section. Read a more technical version below or dig deeper via the tabs above!


Further details

Whenever there is an extreme weather event such as a flood or drought, the media will tend to feature it and the question that is often raised is whether that event was caused by global warming. Unfortunately, there is often no quick answer to this question. That is because weather is highly variable and extreme weather events have always happened. The attribution-studies required to determine whether a global warming signal is detectable are complex. They take a lot of time. Detecting trends also takes time, particularly in cases where observational records are rare or even missing in certain regions.

An increase in some categories of extreme weather is nevertheless expected with global warming, because rising temperatures affect weather phenomena in several ways. Appropriately and in a timely fashion, the working group one (WG1) section of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) includes a chapter specifically dedicated to discussing weather extremes. That's a first, assessing how such things have changed both regionally and globally, in recent decades. A key conclusion is that it is an “established fact" that human greenhouse gas emissions have “led to an increased frequency and/or intensity of some weather and climate extremes since pre-industrial times”.

How global warming affects weather

Rising temperatures can have several effects on the weather. For example:

  • They increase the rate of evapotranspiration, which is the total evaporation of water from soil, plants and water bodies. This can have a direct effect on the frequency and intensity of droughts.
  • A warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapour, potentially increasing the severity of intense or prolonged rainfall events. According to AR6, "combined satellite and reanalysis estimates and CMIP6 atmosphere-only simulations (1988–2014) show global mean precipitable water vapour increases of 6.7 ± 0.3 % °C–1, very close to the Clausius–Clapeyron rate (Allan et al. 2020)".
  • Changes in sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) also have an effect by bringing about associated changes in atmospheric circulation and precipitation. This has been implicated in some droughts, particularly in the tropics.

These changes don't automatically generate extreme weather events but they change the odds that such events will take place: it has often been said that, "climate trains the boxer but the weather throws the punches". It is equivalent to the loading of dice, leading to one side being heavier, so that a certain outcome becomes more likely. In the context of global warming, this means that rising temperatures increase the odds of certain kinds of extreme events occurring.

Changes in extreme weather events are already being observed

In the US, for example, the Global Changes Research Program published a report in 2018 entitled Fourth National Climate Assessment Volume II: Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States. It reports the following findings for recent decades:

  • Some climate-related impacts, such as increasing health risks from extreme heat, are now common to many regions of the United States.
  • Many places are subject to more than one climate-related impact, such as extreme rainfall combined with coastal flooding, or drought coupled with extreme heat, wildfire, and flooding.
  • Annual precipitation since the beginning of the last century has increased across most of the northern and eastern United States and decreased across much of the southern and western United States. Over the coming century, significant increases are projected in winter and spring over the Northern Great Plains, the Upper Midwest, and the Northeast.
  • The frequency of drought has increased in areas such as the Southeast and the West, and decreased in other areas. Rising temperatures make droughts more severe and/or widespread, and also lead to the earlier melting of snowpacks, which can exacerbate problems in vulnerable areas.
  • Atlantic hurricanes have increased both in power and frequency, coinciding with warming oceans that provide energy to these storms. In the Eastern Pacific, there have been fewer but stronger hurricanes recently. More research is needed to better understand the extent to which other factors, such as atmospheric stability and circulation, affect hurricane development.

Similarly, Australia has seen the odds of both heavy rainfalls and droughts (and consequent wildfires) increase, and similar patterns are being observed worldwide, coinciding with rising temperatures over the past 50 years. Heat waves are also occurring more frequently as temperatures shift upwards. The same goes for Europe and parts of Asia.

Carbon Brief has an interesting interactive extreme weather map. It lets you see whether attribution studies have been completed for any single event - well worth a look when you have some spare time.

Screenshot Carbon Brief Map of extreme events

Figure 1: Screenshot of Carbon Brief's interactive map of extreme events. Red icons indicate that human influence was found, blue icons where that is not the case, grey icons where it's inconclusive. Full map with links to the studies available here.

In conclusion, although it isn't possible to state that global warming is causing a particular extreme event at the same time that event is wreaking havoc, it is wrong to say that global warming has no effect on the weather. From the record-breaking “heat dome” of 2021 in the Pacific north-west and the accompanying catastrophic wildfires to the devastating flooding in Europe of July 2021; from the record July 2022 UK heatwave to the disastrous series of atmospheric rivers that struck California from late 2022 to early 2023, extreme weather is occurring all around the planet and records are not just being broken, they are being smashed.

Last updated on 6 August 2023 by John Mason. View Archives

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Argument Feedback

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Comments 26 to 50 out of 97:

  1. Tom, I would expect more tornadoes after adjusting for observation improvements. Those improvements cause most of the increase of your lower chart. The long term increase will be due to more convection and more CAPE (shown to be in a upward trend). I would not expect more strong tornadoes because of other needed ingredients: a strong jet stream for adequate storm motion and mid-level dry air for the strong downdraft (the updrafts are readily available of course). See http://www.mhartman-wx.com/fcst_tools/meso_tutorial.html for a simple explanation. The tornado season peaks well before the summer peak in heat because those other ingredients diminish in summer. The other ingredients with increase with global warming. Thus we would expect strong tornadoes earlier in the season when the jet stream is still in a more southerly position, primarily in the areas where dry air is available east of the Rockies. We would also expect strong tornadoes in northern locations where the jet stream stays stronger later in the season and dry air is still available from Canada. Weak tornadoes should increase under global warming especially earlier in the season.
  2. 25 Tom Curtis In your last tornado graph, I have read that the increase in total number is a result of the advanced tools meteorologists have for locating tornado activity and several storm chasers to find them and confirm touchdowns.
    Response:

    [DB] "I have read"

    Norman, please be advised that when making a statement such as this intended to refute someone else's comment (which itself was based on sourced, linked data) you must be prepared to then back up your statement with a verifiable link to a reliable source.

  3. Thank you DB Here is one experts opinion on the matter of tornadoes and the apparent increase. More tornadoes or better detection?. Smaller tornadoes on increase, larger tornadoes may be decreasing in frequency.
  4. According to the NOAA data posted at #52, strong (EF3+) tornadoes have generally decreased over the past few decades. Whether smaller tornadoes have incrased of simply been detected better is still up for debate. Doppler radar has identified many tornadoes which would probably not have been spotted in years past.
  5. #25 Tom Curtis Here is an explanation of the increase in tornadoes in April. Check out what is needed to form a supercell thunderstorm. A strong jet stream is required. Here is the April anomaly for the Globe. You can see warmer than normal air in the Gulf of Mexico while the air in Canada was well below normal. Conditions are right for supercell thunderstorms. As Eric the Red pointed out in post #26, tornado season diminishes as the Canadian air warms rapidly in the summer months. There is not the strong differential and the jet stream weakens.
  6. "A strong jet stream is required." Upper or low-level jet or both? And not necessarily. You are clearly talking through your hat Norman. You might want to wander over to Desmogblog where I have been in a technical discussion with someone who claims to be in the know about these things. Regardless, the experts agree that trend now and in the future in tornadoes are hard to pin down, mostly on account of the poor nature of the data and changing building codes, and monitoring platforms etc. What we do have confidence in is that extreme precipitation events and severe thunderstorm events are likely to increase in certain areas as low-level moisture increases (see Desmogblog post for papers). In fact, extreme rainfall events are already on the increase.
  7. Albatross, I did wander over to Desmogblog and read your exchange with NicholasV. NicholasV does hold a similar position to mine concerning the Bill McKibben video. I did get that jet stream info from a Accuweather piece but rather than talk through my "hat" I am interested in updating my knowledge. I did take one course in college on meteorology but that was long ago. Here is a resource that I found that may help update my knowledge base. Online weather learning site. Reading your posts, you do seem a very intelligent person. Thanks for taking the time to share your views and resources.
  8. Albatross, Here is the Accuweather article about the jet stream. The claim is they predicted the severe weather in February. Accuweather article. Quote from article: "AccuWeather.com meteorologists knew by February of this year that the upcoming spring was going to be a wild one in terms of severe weather and flooding, and it was not because climate change was ongoing. The combination of a weakening La Nina and the anticipated sharp temperature anomaly gradient between the northern U.S. and the southern U.S. told us that the jet stream running across the U.S. would be abnormally strong this spring. A strong jet stream leads to more powerful storms and thunderstorms, which increases the chances of large tornadoes and widespread flooding."
  9. Text from the intermediate level seems broken.
  10. "I suppose what I am getting at at what stage can we start safely matching extreme weather events to AGW?" Doing this scientifically requires matching observations of weather to predictions from the climate models. As I understand it, only really disruptions to the hydrological cycle (drought and extreme precipitation events) are settled science within the predictions. Hurricanes are not. AR4 discussed extreme precipitation events but there was not really a long enough record to be making strong statements. Droughts will wax and wane in cycles but the pattern of drought is consistent with predictions. I dont believe you can link any single weather event to AGW - only trends in frequency and/or intensity.
  11. "I suppose what I am getting at at what stage can we start safely matching extreme weather events to AGW?" One thing you can do is look at the average increase in humidity due to raised temperatures. When we say that there's 4% more moisture aloft than before, you can get hold of the weather service's measurements of precipitation leading to floods and other damage. Then do some calculations with and without that 4%. What height would the floodwater have reached if there had been x% less water flowing into the system? The big issue here of course is that 4% is the global average increase. Choosing - let alone justifying - a more suitable number for a specific time and place is much harder. But this sort of calculation can be illustrative if not definitive. Without a 4% increase in humidity, floodwaters may only have reached 2 streets from the riverbank rather than the ... distance they did. Not terribly scientific, but may provoke thought. And much more useful for real life. AGW may not cause certain events directly, but it can worsen the impact of those that do occur.
  12. Adelady, I wholeheartedly agree. AGW does not directly cause these events, but can affect the impact due to warmer temperatures and higher humidity.
  13. A response to this page being cited; not a happy camper:
    I looked through your link, an UNSCIENTIFIC source. First there was NOTHING in there that showed any changes is because of our CO2, all it shows is there is changes in the climate system. DUH!!! OF COURSE. As they ADMIT they CANNOT attribute any of those events to AGW. Only that AGW might cause amplification of extreme weather events. Except, anyone who takes meteorology knows, the violence of a storm is based on the temperature differences in weather fronts. The warmer the cold air mass is, the LESS violent the storm. The evidence is clear, there is NO evidence of weather extremes changing.
    Response: Clarification: The italicized text is a quote from someone other than itscoldoutside.

    Why do they think AGW causes only cold air, not warm air, to get warmer?

    [Sph] blockquote added to clarify intent.

  14. itscoldoutside, "The evidence is clear, there is NO evidence of weather extremes changing." Really? Here is an interesting article that disagrees with your statement. Here we show that human-induced increases in greenhouse gases have contributed to the observed intensification of heavy precipitation events found over approximately two-thirds of data-covered parts of Northern Hemisphere land areas. And another article, this time focussed on England and Wales. The precise magnitude of the anthropogenic contribution remains uncertain, but in nine out of ten cases ourmodel results indicate that twentieth century anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions increased the risk of floods occurring in England and Wales in autumn 2000 by more than 20%, and in two out of three cases by more than 90%.
  15. @Hyperactive A response [quoted verbatim, hence the italics and caps, I encountered] to this page being cited; [as you can see they are] not a happy camper. The same author is citing CO2science as a "scientific" resource ....
  16. Ah, sorry I got a bit confused by your post.
  17. @Hyperactive, NP. BTW, They were asked to post their response here. They declined; instead posting that rant (which even I can even see is wrong at so many levels); thought you might all appreciate the reaction this site is getting :-) And, having a table of standard arguments makes things much easier; appreciated.
  18. itscoldoutside: Assuming you have cut & pasted this fine commentary from a response to one of your own comments, I was amused to see your interlocutor's comment "Except, anyone who takes meteorology knows, the violence of a storm is based on the temperature differences in weather fronts." I'm sure he or she was a professional or dedicated hobbyist. :)
  19. itscoldoutside: How about providing us with a link to the comment thread you are referencing.
  20. That @Hyperactive cites a UToronto paper is apt. http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/1070377--rolling-with-the-climate-change-punches#comments (Unfortunately, it isn't possible to cite posts within the thread, and the interface is terrible - why I didn't bother. The exchange is fairly predictable).
  21. More unusual weather news, courtesy Jeff Masters: Rare February tropical disturbance drenching the Florida Keys Our calendars may say it's February, but Mother Nature's calendar says it's more like May in the waters of South Florida ... ... today's rare tropical disturbance over South Florida is symptomatic of how whacked-out our 2012 atmosphere has been. In isolation, the strange winter weather of 2011 - 2012 could be a natural rare occurrence, but there have been way too many strange atmospheric events in the past two years for them all to be simply an unusually long run of natural extremes. Something is definitely up with the weather, and it is clear to me that over the past two years, the climate has shifted to a new state capable of delivering rare and unprecedented weather events. But I'm sure some will say 'its happened before.' Right.
  22. The state and variety of a given ecological system plays a huge role in desertification. In most arid environments there are essentially 2 seasons- wet and dry. Wet seasons in an arid environment often exhibit torrential downfalls. Dry seasons are usually characterized by extreme drought. It makes sense that increasing global temperatures would increase the landmass of "arid" regions and increase the sporadic nature of rainfall (and overall precipitation levels). Certain biological systems have evolved to cope with extreme variations in rainfall(notably huge herds of ruminants and deep-rooted perennial grasses characterize arid environments). Bacteria within arid environments (which are usually grasslands) primarily survive the dry season's "bacterial holocaust" by living in the rumen of a grazer. Similarly, deep rooted perennial grasses improve hydrological cycles by reducing erosion, increasing water permeation into the soil and acting as a storehouse of water during the dry bacterial winter. Large herds roaming the land effectively manage the grass; they "trim the lawn" so to speak, and also apply bacteria ridden fertilizer to the land, and their hooves "till" up the hard packed soil surface (which is common in arid regions) "planting" the seeds of native perennials and increasing the soil's permeability. Increasing the number of perennial grasses/square foot also help the solar cycle through increased photosynthesis which helps bacteria cycling(more sugar available to the immediate environment). My point is that land management is the primary factor driving current trends in desertification- not atmospheric Co2 levels. A slightly warmer world with increased precipitation and more arid land, could actually have amazing benefits, if land managers took steps to encourage the biological systems that evolved to cope with such harsh climates, and thrive within them. From an ecological perspective, desertification is almost strictly a land management problem. Proper planning would heavily negate the potential problems associated with higher levels of more sporadic, "extreme" rainfall.
  23. @AHuntington1 #47: How about some references of peer-reviewed published science that support your currently unsubstantiated assertion that "desertification is almost strictly a land management problem." Also what exactly do you mean when you say "from an ecological perspective"? Finally, do you believe that the southward expansion of the Sahara desert is a "land management problem"?
  24. Oh, when I say "arid environments" i am referring to environments with extremely sporadic, sometimes torrential rainfall contrasted with extreme drought. Not completely lacking in water but with extreme temporal variations in water level. This as opposed to a rainforest, which has (relatively) consistent temporal moisture content.
  25. AHuntington, are you aware of the relationship between the Hadley cells and desertification in the horse latitudes? Try Johanson & Fu (2009) for starters. From the abstract:
    Observations show that the Hadley cell has widened by about 2°–5° since 1979. This widening and the concomitant poleward displacement of the subtropical dry zones may be accompanied by large-scale drying near 30°N and 30°S. Such drying poses a risk to inhabitants of these regions who are accustomed to established rainfall patterns.

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