Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #25 2024
Posted on 20 June 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Climate Change Is Leading to a Convergence of Global Climate Distribution, Li et al., Geophysical Research Letters:
The impact of changes in global temperatures and precipitation on climate distribution remains unclear. Taking the annual global average temperatures and precipitation as the origin, this study determined the climate distribution with the distances of temperature and precipitation from their global averages as the X and Y axes. The results showed that during 1980–2019, the global temperature distribution converged toward the mean (convergence), while the precipitation distribution moved away from the mean (divergence). The combined effects of both led to a convergence in the global climate distribution.
Understanding Full-Depth Steric Sea Level Change in the Southwest Pacific Basin Using Deep Argo, Lele & Purkey, Geophysical Research Letters:
Cold, dense waters formed near polar regions in both hemispheres, sink to great depths and fill-up the majority of the world's deep ocean. Compilation of sparse observations of temperature from global ship-based surveys at roughly 10-year intervals worldwide have shown that sequestration of excess atmospheric heat into the deep ocean has caused these waters to warm steadily since the 1990's into the Present. Not only does this warming have implications for changes in large scale ocean circulation, but is also associated with warming-induced sea level rise. Using a new data set collected between 2014 and 2023 from 55 freely drifting robotic floats (Deep Argo) which gather crucial bimonthly temperature and salinity data between the surface ocean and the ocean floor, we find the greatest warming trend at a depth of 5,000 m of 4 ± 0.3 m°C yr−1 and an associated sea level rise rate below 2,000 m of 1.3 ± 1.6 mm dec−1. Deep Argo data being collected in ocean basins worldwide are crucial in providing high resolution data of the warming deep ocean and its implications on global sea level, ocean mixing and large-scale ocean circulation.
Radiative forcing geoengineering under high CO2 levels leads to higher risk of Arctic wildfires and permafrost thaw than a targeted mitigation scenario, Müller et al., Communications Earth & Environment:
Here we use an Earth System Model to analyse the response in Arctic temperatures to radiative geoengineering applied under the representative concentration pathway 8.5 to decrease the radiative forcing to that achieved under the representative concentration pathway 4.5. The three methods Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, Marine Cloud Brightening, and Cirrus Cloud Thinning, mitigate the global mean temperature rise, however, under our experimental designs, the projected Arctic temperatures are higher than if the same temperature was achieved under emission mitigation. The maximum temperature increase under Cirrus Cloud Thinning and Marine Cloud Brightening is linked to carbon dioxide plant physiological forcing, shifting the system into climatic conditions favouring the development of fires. Under Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, the Arctic land with temperatures permanently below freezing decreased by 7.8% compared to the representative concentration pathway 4.5. This study concludes that these specific radiative forcing geoengineering designs induce less efficient cooling of the Arctic than the global mean and worsen extreme conditions compared to the representative concentration pathway 4.5.
Discourses of climate inaction undermine public support for 1.5 °C lifestyles, Cherry et al., Global Environmental Change:
Urgent action to tackle the climate crisis will only be possible with significant public support for radical lifestyle change. Arguments that seek to delay climate action and justify inadequate mitigation efforts, often termed ‘discourses of delay’, are widespread within political and media debate on climate change. Here we report the results of novel public deliberation and visioning workshops, conducted across the UK in 2020/2021 to explore visions of a 1.5 °C future. We found that despite very strong public support for many low-carbon lifestyle strategies in principle, entrenched discourses of delay are limiting beliefs that a fair, low-carbon future is possible. Consisting of four overarching narratives of climate inaction (Resisting personal responsibility; Rejecting the need for urgency; Believing change is impossible; and Defending the social contract), this public discourse of delay is characterised by three distinct repertoires (each with its own emotional resonance), that act to weaken support for climate action by producing defensive responses to discussions of low-carbon lifestyle change and undermining public sense of agency.
Growing deviations between elite and non-elite media coverage of climate change in the United States, Bolstad & Victor, Climatic Change:
Nearly all prior media studies focus on the United States and on a small number of elite news sources, notably the national newspapers of record. To widen the aperture, we take advantage of a database (MediaCloud) that covers a much larger array of print and word media: 168 million articles about all subjects, derived from 9000 unique U.S. news sources. Coverage of climate change from the “heartland” sources—dominated by state and local news outlets far from the headquarters of national newspapers of record—has risen 144% from 2011 until 2022. Elite news coverage, however, has risen at twice that pace (299%). Over time, the propensity to cover climate change has diverged. In 2011 there were 104 days when the heartland news sources had more coverage of climate change than elite news outlets such as The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal. By 2022 there were only 11 such days. That year, elite news outlets produced roughly three times the coverage of climate change as heartland news outlets. We also find some differences in the topics covered by these two categories of news sources. Such disparities in the intensity of attention to climate change, along with apparently more subtle variations in topical coverage, are variations that deserve future explanation. They are also a reminder that analysis of climate coverage should choose data sources with care since the narrative around what the public is learning about climate appears to vary substantially between heartland and elite new sources.
Towards effective implementation of the energy efficiency first principle: a theory-based classification and analysis of policy instruments, Mandel & Pató, Energy Research & Social Science:
The energy efficiency first (EE1st) principle, embedded in the European Union's (EU) recast Energy Efficiency Directive, aims to prioritise cost-effective energy efficiency solutions over new energy supply infrastructure. These solutions encompass not only end-use energy efficiency, but also, notably, demand-side flexibility. This research bridges the gap between the theoretical underpinnings of the principle and practical policy implementation. Drawing on market failure theory, it identifies an inherent bias in EU energy markets in favour of energy supply infrastructure. By highlighting the correction of market failures – from externalities to transaction costs – through targeted policy instruments, it presents a theoretical policy intervention logic for EE1st. Based on this, it offers a set of twenty-nine established and emerging policy instruments linked to specific market failures, thus providing a systematic roadmap for EE1st application. The study concludes that levelling the playing field between energy efficiency and energy supply requires a broad policy response.
Phase synchronization between culture and climate forcing, Timmermann et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences:
Over the history of humankind, cultural innovations have helped improve survival and adaptation to environmental stress. This has led to an overall increase in human population size, which in turn further contributed to cumulative cultural learning. During the Anthropocene, or arguably even earlier, this positive sociodemographic feedback has caused a strong decline in important resources that, coupled with projected future transgression of planetary boundaries, may potentially reverse the long-term trend in population growth. Here, we present a simple consumer/resource model that captures the coupled dynamics of stochastic cultural learning and transmission, population growth and resource depletion in a changing environment. The idealized stochastic mathematical model simulates boom/bust cycles between low-population subsistence, high-density resource exploitation and subsequent population decline. For slow resource recovery time scales and in the absence of climate forcing, the model predicts a long-term global population collapse.
From this week's government and NGO section:
Climate Change in the American Mind: Politics & Policy, Spring 2024, Leiserowitz et al., Yale University and George Mason University:
The survey was fielded from April 25 – May 4, 2024. 62% of registered voters would prefer to vote for a candidate for public office who supports action on global warming. This includes 97% of liberal Democrats, 81% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 62% of Independents, and 47% of liberal/moderate Republicans, but only 17% of conservative Republicans. About four in ten registered voters (39%) say a candidate’s position on global warming will be “very important” when they decide who they will vote for in the 2024 presidential election. Of 28 issues asked about, global warming is the 19th most highly ranked voting issue among registered voters (based on the percentage saying it is “very important”). When then asked to choose their most important voting issue, three percent of registered voters chose global warming, making it the 12th highest-ranked most important issue.
Opposition to Renewable Energy Facilities in the United States: June 2024 Edition, Eisenson, Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Columbia Law School
Although many renewable energy facilities are sited without any problem, local opposition often arises. The authors document local and state restrictions against, and opposition to, siting renewable energy projects, as well as energy storage and transmission projects that are closely tied to renewable energy generation. The period covered by this report ranges from as early as 1995 to December 31, 2023. The authors do not make normative judgments as to the legal merits of individual cases or the policy preferences reflected in local opponents’ advocacy, nor as to where any one facility should or should not be sited. Nonetheless, the volume and nature of the restrictions and controversies cataloged demonstrate that local opposition to renewable energy facilities is widespread and growing and that it represents a potentially significant impediment to the achievement of climate goals.
144 articles in 62 journals by 826 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
An analytic theory for the degree of Arctic Amplification, Zhou et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-48469-w
Changes in the tropical upper-tropospheric zonal momentum balance due to global warming, Thakur & Sukhatme, Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/wcd-5-839-2024
Disentangling the Advective Brewer-Dobson Circulation Change, Šácha et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl105919
Diurnally asymmetric cloud cover trends amplify greenhouse warming, Luo et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.ado5179
New estimation of critical insolation–CO2 relationship for triggering glacial inception, Talento et al., Climate of the Past Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-20-1349-2024
Shallow cumulus cloud fields are optically thicker when they are more clustered, Alinaghi et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1002/qj.4783
Observations of climate change, effects
A global estimate of monthly vegetation and soil fractions from spatio-temporally adaptive spectral mixture analysis during 2001–2022, Sun et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-2023-341
Climate Change Is Leading to a Convergence of Global Climate Distribution, Li et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl106658
Cryospheric Excitation on the Earth's Chandler Wobble and Implications From a Warming World, Xu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl108992
Exploring the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of extreme heat events and driving factors in seven geographic regions of China (1980–2021), Wang et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102002
The Intensifying East China Sea Kuroshio and Disappearing Ryukyu Current in a Warming Climate, Yang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl106944
Will 2024 be the first year that global temperature exceeds 1.5°C?, Dunstone et al., Atmospheric Science Letters Open Access 10.1002/asl.1254
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
More Frequent Spaceborne Sampling of XCO2 Improves Detectability of Carbon Cycle Seasonal Transitions in Arctic-Boreal Ecosystems, Parazoo et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl107158
Shifts in bioclimatic zones mirror climate change signals in a tropical agriculture-dominated Bharathapuzha River basin of southern Western Ghats (India), Nizar et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8535
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Assessing Climate Forcing From the Sea Surface Temperature-Surface Heat Flux Relation for SST-Coupled Oscillatory Variability, Gu & Liu, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl108552
Assessing the Impact of Climate Change on Atmospheric Rivers: A Modeling Perspective, Ordaz Osorio et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2023jd040074
Cloud Responses to Abrupt Solar and CO2 Forcing: 1. Temperature Mediated Cloud Feedbacks, Aerenson & Marchand, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2023jd040296
Cloud Responses to Abrupt Solar and CO2 Forcing: 2. Adjustment to Forcing in Coupled Models, Aerenson et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2023jd040297
Investigating Catchment-Scale Daily Snow Depths of CMIP6 in Canada, Abdelmoaty et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109664
North Atlantic patterns of primary production and phenology in two Earth System Models, Hieronymus et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2023-54
North Atlantic Warming Hole Modulates Interhemispheric Asymmetry of Future Temperature and Precipitation, Park et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef004146
Permafrost Cloud Feedback May Amplify Climate Change, de Vrese et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109034
Probabilistic UK Climate Projections Conditioned on Global Warming Levels, Steptoe & Murphy, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl108507
Significant Reduction of Potential Exposure to Extreme Marine Heatwaves by Achieving Carbon Neutrality, Oh et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004420
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
A Novel Emergent Constraint Approach for Refining Regional Climate Model Projections of Peak Flow Timing, Bass et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl108575
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Effects of vertical grid spacing on the climate simulated in the ICON-Sapphire global storm-resolving model, Schmidt et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2023-1575
Evaluation of dynamical downscaling in a fully coupled regional earth system model, Seefeldt et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.167458069.99431895/v1
Missing Increase in Summer Greenland Blocking in Climate Models, Maddison et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024gl108505
Multivariate adjustment of drizzle bias using machine learning in European climate projections, Lazoglou et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-45
Opinion: Optimizing climate models with process knowledge, resolution, and artificial intelligence, Schneider et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-24-7041-2024
Seafloor roughness reduces melting of East Antarctic ice shelves, Liu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01480-x
Seasonal Cycle Delay of the Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency in CMIP6 Simulations, Peng & Guo, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109150
The Inter-Model Uncertainty of Projected Precipitation Change in Northern China: The Modulating Role of North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2024jd040932
Cryosphere & climate change
Climate change-resilient snowpack estimation in the Western United States, Cowherd et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01496-3
Competing climate feedbacks of ice sheet freshwater discharge in a warming world, Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-49604-3
Cryospheric Excitation on the Earth's Chandler Wobble and Implications From a Warming World, Xu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl108992
Ice regimes, ice jams, and a changing hydroclimate, Saint John (Wolastoq) River, New Brunswick, Canada, Newton et al., Natural Hazards Open Access 10.1007/s11069-024-06736-5
Major Modes of Climate Variability Dominate Nonlinear Antarctic Ice-Sheet Elevation Changes 2002–2020, King & Christoffersen, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024gl108844
Past and future of the Arctic sea ice in High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) climate models, Selivanova et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-18-2739-2024
Rate of permafrost thaw and associated plant community dynamics in peatlands of northwestern Canada, Errington et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access 10.1111/1365-2745.14339
Seawater Intrusion in the Observed Grounding Zone of Petermann Glacier Causes Extensive Retreat, Ehrenfeucht et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl107571
Sensitivity to forecast surface mass balance outweighs sensitivity to basal sliding descriptions for 21st century mass loss from three major Greenland outlet glaciers, Carr et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-2719-2024
Sea level & climate change
Understanding Full-Depth Steric Sea Level Change in the Southwest Pacific Basin Using Deep Argo, Lele & Purkey, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl107844
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
A Seasonally Delayed Sea Ice Response and Arctic Amplification During the Last Glacial Inception, Xu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl107927
Sensitivity of ocean circulation to warming during the Early Eocene greenhouse, Kirtland Turner et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2311980121
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Anticipating change: The impact of simulated seasonal heterogeneity on heat tolerances along a latitudinal cline, Lush et al., Ecology Open Access 10.1002/ecy.4359
Assessing alternative lake management actions for climate change adaptation, Regev et al., Ambio Open Access 10.1007/s13280-024-02039-y
Changes in above- versus belowground biomass distribution in permafrost regions in response to climate warming, Yun et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2314036121
Climate interacts with the trait structure of tree communities to influence forest productivity, Dupont?Leduc et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/1365-2745.14350
Corals Evidence an Underestimation of the 20th Century Warming in the Eastern Pacific Cold Tongue, Han et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl108954
Current and future environmental suitability for bats hosting potential zoonotic pathogens in rural Kenya, Uusitalo et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.11572
Different climate conditions drive variations in gross primary productivity and woody biomass accumulation in a temperate and a boreal conifer forest in Canada, Puchi et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110125
Elevated atmospheric CO2 has small, species-specific effects on pollen chemistry and plant growth across flowering plant species, Bernauer et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-63967-z
Human Impacts Dominate Global Loss of Lake Ecosystem Resilience, Han et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024gl109298
Increasing influence of minimum temperature on grassland spring phenology in arid Central Asia, Li et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110122
Long-term climatic means affect the magnitude of short-term variability in population growth rates, Bistritz et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography Open Access pdf 10.1111/geb.13853
Neuromolecular mechanisms related to reflex behaviour in Aplysia are affected by ocean acidification, Sourisse & Schunter Celia Schunter Celia Schunter, Royal Society Open Science Open Access 10.1098/rsos.240329
Observational Constraints and Attribution of Global Plant Transpiration Changes Over the Past Four Decades, Cui et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024gl108302
Rate of permafrost thaw and associated plant community dynamics in peatlands of northwestern Canada, Errington et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access 10.1111/1365-2745.14339
Recent Water Constraints Mediate the Dominance of Climate and Atmospheric CO2 on Vegetation Growth Across China, Song et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef004395
Reviews and syntheses: Abrupt ocean biogeochemical change under human-made climatic forcing – warming, acidification, and deoxygenation, Heinze et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2023-182
Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts, Evans et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2315700121
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
A global surface CO2 flux dataset (2015–2022) inferred from OCO-2 retrievals using the GONGGA inversion system, Jin et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-16-2857-2024
Assessing methane emissions from collapsing Venezuelan oil production using TROPOMI, Nathan et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-6845-2024
Consumption-Based Carbon Emissions of 85 Federal Entities in Russia, Li et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef004323
Impact of Spatial Variability in Zooplankton Grazing Rates on Carbon Export Flux, Meyjes et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2023gb008085
More Frequent Spaceborne Sampling of XCO2 Improves Detectability of Carbon Cycle Seasonal Transitions in Arctic-Boreal Ecosystems, Parazoo et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl107158
On the Theory of the Divergence Method for Quantifying Source Emissions From Satellite Observations, Koene et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2023jd039904
Self-Made Equipment for Automatic Methane Diffusion and Ebullition Measurements From Aquatic Environments, Sø et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2024jg008035
Short-term trend and temporal variations in atmospheric methane at an Atlantic coastal site in Southwestern Europe, Padilla et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.120665
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
The Age of Buried Carbon Changes the Greenhouse Gas Budget of a Dam, Tittel et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2023jg007979
Tropical Peatland Water Table Estimations From Space, Koupaei?Abyazani et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2024jg008116
Under-Ice Oxygen Depletion and Greenhouse Gas Supersaturation in North Temperate Urban Ponds, Gorsky et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2024jg008120
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
A review of measurement for quantification of carbon dioxide removal by enhanced weathering in soil, Clarkson et al., Open Access pdf 10.31223/x52d7t
CO2 rock physics modeling for reliable monitoring of geologic carbon storage, Creasy et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01493-6
Recent advances in engineering fast-growing cyanobacterial species for enhanced CO2 fixation, Kim et al., Frontiers in Climate 10.3389/fclim.2024.1412232
Synergies of storing hydrogen at the crest of CO2${rm CO}&{2}$ or other gas storage, Sun et al., Energy & Fuels Open Access 10.1021/ef010067n
The use of warehouse automation technology for scalable and low-cost direct air capture, McQueen & Drennan, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1415642
Decarbonization
A comprehensive cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment of three representative lithium-ion stationary batteries targeting a 20-year bi-daily charge–discharge service, Komesse et al., The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment 10.1007/s11367-024-02303-z
Climate change impacts on the extreme power shortage events of wind-solar supply systems worldwide during 1980–2022, Zheng et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-48966-y
Decomposition, decoupling and dynamic prediction of carbon emissions from city-level building operations: a case study of the Yangtze River Delta, Wang, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1388739
Dual Impacts of Space Heating Electrification and Climate Change Increase Uncertainties in Peak Load Behavior and Grid Capacity Requirements in Texas, Ssembatya et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004443
Effects of direct and indirect electrification on transport energy demand during the energy transition, Bogdanov et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114205
Rapidly declining costs of truck batteries and fuel cells enable large-scale road freight electrification, Link et al., Nature Energy Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41560-024-01531-9
Recent Advances in High-Performance Direct Seawater Electrolysis for “Green” Hydrogen, Zhang et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research 10.1002/aesr.202400085
Techno-economic and performance assessment of a hybrid fuel cell-based combined heat and power system for dairy industry, Najeeb et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-05044-z
The role and benefits of storage systems in distributed solar PV generation on public buildings in Brazil, Pinto et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101495
Using dynamic life cycle assessment to evaluate the effects of industry digitalization: A steel case study, Astudillo et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology 10.1111/jiec.13510
Geoengineering climate
Aerosol and Dimethyl Sulfide Sensitivity to Sulfate Chemistry Schemes, Bhatti et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2023jd040635
Carbon dioxide removal efficiency of iron and steel slag in seawater via ocean alkalinity enhancement, Moras et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2024.1396487
Natural Variability Can Mask Forced Permafrost Response to Stratospheric Aerosol Injection in the ARISE-SAI-1.5 Simulations, Morrison et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef004191
Phytoplankton response to increased nickel in the context of ocean alkalinity enhancement, Xin et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2023-130
Radiative forcing geoengineering under high CO2 levels leads to higher risk of Arctic wildfires and permafrost thaw than a targeted mitigation scenario, Müller et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01329-3
Aerosols
Assessing aerosol-radiation interaction with WRF-chem-solar: Case study on the impact of the “pollution reduction and carbon reduction synergy” policy, Wen et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107537
Climate change communications & cognition
Advancing Climate Education through Integrated Activities to Promote Inclusion, Creativity, and Mental Health, Siders & Veron , Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-24-0039.1
Discourses of climate inaction undermine public support for 1.5 °C lifestyles, Cherry et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102875
Extreme weather events do not increase political parties' environmental attention, Wappenhans et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02024-z
Growing deviations between elite and non-elite media coverage of climate change in the United States, Bolstad & Victor, Climatic Change Open Access 10.1007/s10584-024-03750-1
Potentials and challenges of artificial intelligence-supported greenwashing detection in the energy sector, Boedijanto & Delina, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103638
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
A new perspective on rangelands and pastoralists to reverse their silent demise, which is impacting climate and food supply for billions, Herrera Calvo & Alexander, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17377
Adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices (CSAPs) in Ethiopia, Abegaz et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100628
Assessing the impact of climate and crop diversity on regional greenhouse gas emissions and water demand of cropland, Tang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110119
Climate mitigation potential of cover crops in the United States is regionally concentrated and lower than previous estimates, Eash et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17372
Editorial overview: Navigating climate challenges for the future of food systems, Gurney-Smith et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 10.1016/j.cosust.2024.101450
Long-term straw return to a wheat-maize system results in topsoil organic C saturation and increased yields while no stimulating or reducing yield-scaled N2O and NO emissions, Yao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109937
The Decline in Summer Fallow in the Northern Great Plains Cooled Near-Surface Climate but had Minimal Impacts on Precipitation, Stoy et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jd040699
Vulnerability to climate change of cultivated and wild cacao in Ecuador, Ceccarelli et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-024-03756-9
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Assessing the impacts of climate and land cover change on groundwater recharge in a semi-arid region of Southern India, Chandra & Sahoo, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-05065-8
Bibliometric analysis on urban flood and waterlogging disasters during the period of 1998—2022, Qi et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-024-06710-1
Climate change-induced urban flooding trend analysis and land use change: a case study of flood-prone Pathumthani Province, Thailand, Thanvisitthpon et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-05117-z
Past and future joint return period of precipitation extremes over South Asia and Southeast Asia, Reddy & Ray, Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104495
Projected energy and hydrological budgets over the Indus River Basin under a CORDEX-SA regional climate model framework, Maharana & Dimri, Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107535
Relationship Between Circulation Types and Extreme Precipitation Over Scandinavia Is Stable Under Climate Change, Hansen et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109704
Climate change economics
Climate policy options: A comparison of economic performance, Chateau et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114232
Do development finance projects facilitate domestic renewable energy transitions? The role of small economic actors in Senegal, Haag et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103598
Substantial increase of heat-induced labor and economic loss in China under rapid economic and environmental temperature growth, Chu et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.06.006
Supporting carbon pricing when interest rates are higher, Funke et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02040-z
Climate change and the circular economy Climate change mitigation public policy research
A new scenario framework for equitable and climate-compatible futures, Ranjan et al., Climate and Development Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2024.2365939
Applying a new protocol to avoid maladaptation shows that Degrowth is the most suitable strategy of European mountains, Zango-Palau et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103801
Climate policy options: A comparison of economic performance, Chateau et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114232
Delineating the embodied CO2 emissions in Canada's exports: Routes, drivers, and paths, Li et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/jiec.13506
Engage or retreat? Exploring the determinants of participation in Climate Finance public-private partnerships, , Open Access pdf 10.1787/9789264298705-12-en
From grey to green? Tipping a coal region incrementally, Mey et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102862
How aligned are industry strategy and government policy for the decarbonization of energy-intensive process industries?, Hansen et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2363490
Paper tiger or useful governance tool? Understanding long-term climate strategies as a climate governance instrument, , Journalism Today Open Access 10.1002/9781444395372.ch14
Policy credibility is a key component for an effective and efficient EU Emissions Trading System, Sitarz et al., Nature Energy Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41560-024-01545-3
Scaling renewable energy cooperatives for a net-zero Canada: Challenges and opportunities for accelerating the energy transition, Boucher & Pigeon, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103618
Towards effective implementation of the energy efficiency first principle: a theory-based classification and analysis of policy instruments, Mandel & Pató, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103613
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Applying recent advances in climate adaptation research to urban heat risk management, Singh et al., WIREs Climate Change 10.1002/wcc.901
Evaluating sectoral pathways and barriers in mainstreaming climate change adaptation, Kim & Shin, Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100627
From mitigation to adaptation: Problematizing climate change in the maritime transport industry, Stockbruegger & Bueger, WIREs Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1002/wcc.894
Integrating climate, air, and health goals: the impact of efficient cooling policies in India, Agarwal et al., Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences 10.1007/s13412-024-00954-w
Pluralizing climate change adaptation: mapping discourses in Vietnam, Conway-Lamb, Climate and Development Open Access pdf 10.1080/17565529.2024.2361797
Policy priorities to enable engaged and transformational adaptation on the coast: Learning from practitioner experiences in England, van der Plank, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103806
The human dimension of climate change; revisiting the Commission on Climate Change and Development in the polycrisis context, Schaar et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-024-03761-y
The politics of local climate risk management – A comparison of risk logic in the Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden, Witnes Karlson et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100626
Climate change impacts on human health
Climate and urbanization drive changes in the habitat suitability of Schistosoma mansoni competent snails in Brazil, Glidden et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-024-48335-9
Hydrological Extremes Heighten Vulnerability to Schistosomiasis, Levia et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004659
Research on the health impact of climate must consider distributive justice and environmental sustainability, Richie et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000431
Climate change & geopolitics
A comparative review of methane policies of the United States and China in the context of US – China climate cooperation, Zhu et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2366902
Climate change impacts on human culture
Perspectives of nature-based tourism-dependent communities on climate change in the Okavango Delta, Botswana, Hambira et al., International Journal of Biometeorology 10.1007/s00484-024-02719-0
Phase synchronization between culture and climate forcing, Timmermann et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rspb.2024.0320
Other
Research trends of nature-based solutions: from urban to climate change, Yang et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1351189
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
How accounting for relational power dynamics can help tackle injustices in the climate crisis, Seeland et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000430
Research to Confront Climate Change Complexity: Intersectionality, Integration, and Innovative Governance, Mach et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef004392
The use of decision making under deep uncertainty in the IPCC, Lempert et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1380054
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Households transforming the grid: Distributed energy resources are key to affordable clean power, Thomson et al, Deloitte Research Center for Energy & Industrials
Distributed energy resources (DER) offer solutions to utility challenges. Households can help meet peak demand. Integrated plans can maximize DER value. Regulators can align stakeholders to goals. DER can advance equity. DER need a data-efficient architecture.
Farm to fumes. Hazardous air pollution from biofuels production, Bregman et al., Environmental Integrity Project
Across the spectrum, biofuels like ethanol, biodiesel, and “renewable diesel” are held up by their manufacturers as a greener and more sustainable alternative to petroleum-based gasoline and diesel fuel. The industry is growing rapidly, fueled by federal subsidies, mandates, permitting loopholes, and a clean public image of a plant-powered future. But biofuel factories release surprisingly large amounts of hazardous air pollution, often in rural Midwestern communities that suffer from unhealthy air quality despite having no significant pollution sources around them, other than the smokestacks of ethanol refineries. An examination of emissions records by the authors found that biofuel manufacturing plants release significantly greater amounts of certain hazardous air pollutants than oil refineries.
Opposition to Renewable Energy Facilities in the United States: June 2024 Edition, Eisenson, Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Columbia Law School
Achieving lower carbon emissions in the United States will require developing a massive number of renewable energy facilities at an unprecedented scale and pace. Although many renewable energy facilities are sited without any problem, local opposition often arises. The authors document local and state restrictions against, and opposition to, siting renewable energy projects, as well as energy storage and transmission projects that are closely tied to renewable energy generation. The period covered by this report ranges from as early as 1995 to December 31, 2023. The authors do not make normative judgments as to the legal merits of individual cases or the policy preferences reflected in local opponents’ advocacy, nor as to where any one facility should or should not be sited. Nonetheless, the volume and nature of the restrictions and controversies cataloged demonstrate that local opposition to renewable energy facilities is widespread and growing and that it represents a potentially significant impediment to the achievement of climate goals.
Climate Change in the American Mind: Politics & Policy, Spring 2024, Leiserowitz et al., Yale University and George Mason University
Drawing on a representative sample of the U.S. adult population (n = 1,031; including the 896 registered voters whose data are included in the report), these findings describe how registered voters view a variety of domestic climate and energy policies. The survey was fielded from April 25 – May 4, 2024. 62% of registered voters would prefer to vote for a candidate for public office who supports action on global warming. This includes 97% of liberal Democrats, 81% of moderate/conservative Democrats, 62% of Independents, and 47% of liberal/moderate Republicans, but only 17% of conservative Republicans. About four in ten registered voters (39%) say a candidate’s position on global warming will be “very important” when they decide who they will vote for in the 2024 presidential election. Of 28 issues asked about, global warming is the 19th most highly ranked voting issue among registered voters (based on the percentage saying it is “very important”). When then asked to choose their most important voting issue, three percent of registered voters chose global warming, making it the 12th highest-ranked most important issue.
Heat Exchange. How today's policies will drive or delay Canada's transition to clean, reliable heat for buildings, Harland et al, Canadian Climate Institute
The authors focus on the energy systems that Canadians rely on to keep their homes and businesses warm. We explore how those systems, and the regulatory frameworks that govern them, must adapt for Canada to reach net zero in a way that minimizes costs for ratepayers, governments, and the economy as a whole.
Competition, Climate and Resilience: Securing the EV Supply Chain in America, Alexandra Helfgott and Duncan Wood, Wilson Center
The authors focus on the challenges and opportunities facing the United States as it embarks on the ambitious transition from gas-powered to electric vehicles while geopolitical competition is intensifying between the US and China. The information in the paper is based on a dialogue between a high-level group of stakeholders, including industry experts, policymakers, and independent analysts convened by the Wilson Center. The EV supply chain highlights the complexities of modern manufacturing in the energy transition: the need for both efficient legislation and regulation, adequate financial incentive structure, and fast-moving innovation. The industry requires an approach that embraces the complete lifecycle of the product, from extracting critical minerals through to end-of-life recycling and repurposing. The United States must make the EV supply chain more resilient by strengthening the critical minerals supply chain, enhancing battery design and recycling, and expanding the charging network.
Cleaner Cars and Fatter Wallets: The Current U.S. Clean Vehicles Policy Package Will Deliver Climate, Health, and Economic Benefits for All, Natural Resources Defense Council
Unprecedented investments and incentives in electric vehicles (EVs) and the infrastructure to support them are already delivering real benefits to Americans. New tailpipe pollution standards for cars, SUVs, pickup trucks, and vans, along with incentives from the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL) and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), are lowering vehicle costs, providing more choices for drivers, reducing air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, and resulting in tens of thousands of new job opportunities. With these changes, Americans are breaking the oil industry’s vehicle monopoly. But the industry is not going to go gentle into that good night. Oil interests are fighting with all they have to try and keep Americans addicted to gas-guzzling cars. And no legislation or regulation is written in stone. The authors explain the ways that Americans are benefiting from investments in clean vehicles and what will be lost if these policies are reversed.
State of California Sea Level Guidance, California Sea Level Rise Science Task Force, California Ocean Protection Council, California Ocean Science Trust
This report updates statewide guidance since 2010 for state and local decision-makers to incorporate the best available science on sea level rise into planning, design, permitting, investments, and other decisions. To support science-based decision-making, this report consists of syntheses of the best available science on sea level rise and other coastal hazards, e.g., flooding and erosion, with pragmatic and practical approaches to using this new scientific information.
How Innovative Is China in Nuclear Power?, Stephen Ezell, Information technology & Innovation Foundation
China intends to build 150 new nuclear reactors between 2020 and 2035, with 27 currently under construction, and the average construction timeline for each reactor is about seven years, far faster than for most other nations. China has commenced operation of the world’s first fourth-generation nuclear reactor, for which China asserts it developed some 90 percent of the technology. China is leading in the development and launch of cost-competitive small modular reactors (SMRs). Overall, analysts assess that China likely stands 10 to 15 years ahead of the United States in its ability to deploy fourth-generation nuclear reactors at scale.
Rings of Fire. Heat Risks at the 2024 Paris Olympics, The British Association for Sustainable Sport and Front Runners
The next Olympics in Paris is now upon us, and notable cases of extreme heat undermining the health and enjoyment of sporting spectacles have only increased. Due to inaction on climate change and the continued rate of fossil fuel use, the world continues to get warmer and stay warmer for longer. It is not just the temperature that is increasing. The alarm amongst the athlete community is growing too. As the Paris Games approach, we hear from a host of elite sportsmen and women from around the world and from an array of events to get a sense of how they viewed the challenges that come with training and competing in extreme heat. The feedback is deeply disconcerting.
State of Global Air/2024, Health Effects Institute and Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation
The authors present information on exposures to and health impacts of exposure to common air pollutants including fine particulate matter, ozone, and for the first time, nitrogen dioxide, from 1990–2021. The report draws upon the best available air quality data, estimates of health risks, and demographic data to produce globally comparable country-level data.
HKH Snow Update 2024, Sher Muhammad, International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
The assessment of seasonal snow in the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region reveals insights into snow persistence trends over the past twenty-two years. Snow persistence, indicating the duration snow remains on the ground, varies significantly during the accumulation season (November–April) based on data from 2003 to 2024. The authors aim to inform water resource management strategies by highlighting fluctuations in snow cover and to provide essential guidance on implementing adaptation measures. These measures are crucial for mitigating the anticipated impacts of accelerated snowmelt on downstream communities.
Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions
We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light" but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance.
- Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.
- Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
- The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway.
How is New Research assembled?
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.
The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
- Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically.
- Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.
A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."
The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.
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