Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #37 2026
Posted on 10 September 2026 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Early warning signals for tipping points in complex climate systems, LIU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research
The growing risk of climate tipping events underscores the urgent need for reliable early warning signals (EWS). Here we synthesize recent advances in EWS research for climate systems, systematically categorizing available methods into three groups, namely statistical indicators, nonlinear dynamical diagnostics, and data-driven approaches, and evaluating their theoretical applicability to practical limitations. In conclusion, statistical indicators offer theoretical clarity but are sensitive to non-stationary noise, nonlinear dynamical methods provide enhanced robustness in high-dimensional settings, and network- and deep learning-based approaches show the potential for detecting diverse tipping types, particularly when integrated with physical constraints and multi-modal observations. Given these trade-offs, we advocate for three practical strategies to enhance EWS utility, including adopting ensemble frameworks that combine multiple indicators to reduce false alarms, advancing cascade EWS to capture cross-system tipping interactions, and shifting from qualitative trend warnings toward quantitative, threshold-defined predictions with quantifiable uncertainties. We also discuss supporting techniques for these strategies, including adaptive noise filtering, dimensionality reduction, satellite data integration, and physics-informed machine learning. This review provides a structured reference for method selection across climate subsystems and data regimes, and underscores that operational EWS will require sustained integration of nonlinear dynamics, Earth observation, and data science.
Countering climate misinformation with large language models: Evidence from ChatGPT, Tsang & Wang, PLOS Climate
Public support for climate action hinges on the integrity of information environments. In an online experiment, U.S. adults used ChatGPT to evaluate climate-related claims. We first conducted computational text analysis of GPT conversation logs, assessing valence, formality, bias, recency, authority cues, and semantic richness of ChatGPT’s responses using language-model based classifiers and link-level metadata. Concurrently, we measured credibility judgments for both the claims and ChatGPT’s responses through participant self-reports. Credibility perceptions were driven primarily by individual differences; greater acceptance of the scientific consensus, attention to climate change, prior familiarity with ChatGPT, and younger age predicted higher perceived credibility. Once these factors were accounted for, authority cues were associated with slightly less extreme climate attitudes, while positive valence and semantic richness correlated positively with perceived credibility. These results support transparent, unbiased, audience-tailored engagement as a pathway to strengthen responsible climate communication and help bridge the gap between scientific consensus and public understanding.
Lost in Projection: Uncertainty is Misrepresented in Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessments, Curran et al., Risk Analysis
In practice, many climate change risk assessments fail to capture the true depth of uncertainty. Despite widespread scientific recognition of deep uncertainty (large ranges of possibility) in climate conditions, this nuance is often lost in translation to policy and planning contexts; instead, conditions are presented as single projections. This means that communities are making large-scale infrastructure investments and long-term policy commitments based on false precision, leaving them unprepared for climate surprises or potentially wasting resources and disrupting communities unnecessarily by overadapting. To examine how climate uncertainties are represented and accounted for in adaptation planning, we conducted a structured review of 39 climate risk and vulnerability assessments from across the world, using sea level rise as a case study. These documents inform policy that guides billions of dollars in infrastructure investments and shape community preparedness strategies. Our analysis reveals that only 54% of these documents correctly represent sea level rise as deeply uncertain. This issue is compounded when making decisions; 71% of decisions were made by misapplying scenarios as individual projections to plan for, rather than as a tool for exploring potential future conditions, directly contradicting their intended use. This demonstrates a gap between scientific understanding of climate uncertainty and planning practice. Addressing this gap requires improved uncertainty communication, moving beyond just quantifying uncertainty to also characterizing uncertainty. This must be done in conjunction with the support of decision makers to incorporate a stronger understanding of uncertainty into planning by using tools designed specifically for decision making in deeply uncertain environments.
From this week's government/NGO section:
How Climate Resilient Are the World’s Largest Cities?, AlphaGeo
Geography is not destiny. Cities with near-identical physical risk scores diverge by as much as 33 resilience-adjusted risk (RAJ) points depending on the adaptation measures in place — demonstrating that risk is not fixed, and that resilience is a function of policy and investment, not geography alone. South Asian megacities face a compounding crisis. Ahmedabad (RAJ 41), Hyderabad Pakistan (41), Multan (38), Dhaka (36), Kolkata (35), and Lahore (35) combine extreme physical exposure with only moderate adaptation performance. European, African, and Latin American capitals outperform. Chicago, Addis Ababa, Melbourne, Barcelona, Buenos Aires, Paris, and Nairobi all score below 14 on the RAJ scale, making them among the most resilient major cities globally. Chinese megacities are closing the gap. Beijing (50%), Tianjin (49%), Shenzhen (49%), and Shanghai (46%) lead globally on adaptation efficiency — consistently converting high physical exposure into substantially lower residual risk. Mispriced risk is concentrated in South Asia. South Asia accounts for the majority of cities where residual RAJ scores remain high and adaptation rates remain comparatively low relative to the scale of physical exposure.
Heathrow Airport expansion risks for the Climate Change Act, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester
The authors examine whether a third runway at Heathrow Airport is compatible with the UK’s domestic and international legal climate change obligations, and shows how growing airport capacity before climate technologies succeed will break the UK’s carbon budget. Through an analysis of future UK aviation scenarios and reviewing the status and outlook for key technology options, the authors findings show that Heathrow expansion cannot reasonably be considered consistent with UK Government climate targets. The authors examine three questions including the level of demand implied by an expanded Heathrow Airport; whether sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) can mitigate emissions arising from any net additional demand; and if greenhouse gas removal (GGR) expansion can address remaining additional residual emissions. This assessment is within the context of the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget, which is a legally binding limit on greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the period when the third runway is proposed to start operating.
92 articles in 50 journals by 638 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Anthropogenic forcing dominates relentless westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high, An et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109301
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Transient overturning changes cause an upper-ocean nutrient decline in a warming climate, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52200-0 13 cites.
Observations of climate change, effects
Changes in Compound Heat-Humidity over China: Insights from Homogenized Data, DENG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.accre.2026.08.017
Long-term temperature, oxygen and water clarity trends in Swiss lakes, Bärenbold et al., Earth system science data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-18-6527-2026
Recent intensification of extreme precipitation over East Antarctica driven by increases in greenhouse gases and stratospheric ozone, Chittella et al., cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-20-5005-2026
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Indian Ocean Acidification and Its Driving Mechanisms Over the Last Four Decades (1980–2019), Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2024gb008139 21 cites.
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Advanced Visualization Techniques for Insight in Clouds and Climate Research, Sullivan et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-25-0055.1
An AI-driven reconstruction of global surface temperature with emphasis on refining the Antarctic record, Ouyang et al., Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-18-6503-2026
Early warning signals for tipping points in complex climate systems, LIU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.09.002
Shallow Antarctic blue ice shows photochemical influence on trapped greenhouse gases, Lee et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03923-z
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
What is a heat wave: A survey and literature synthesis of heat wave definitions across the United States, PLOS Climate, 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000468 18 cites.
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Downscaling and Trend Projection of Lightning Associated with Forest Lightning-Ignited Fires under Climate Change, Song et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 10.1016/j.jastp.2026.106967
Global cities under multiple climate hazards, Nogherotto et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103132
Revealing Enhanced Signals of Future Marine Heatwave Changes in the East/Japan Sea Through a High-Resolution Dynamical Downscaling Ensemble, Oh et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025ef007760
The Source of Arctic Precipitation in HadGEM3-GC5, Ridley et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jd046751
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Strong regional trends in extreme weather over the next two decades under high- and low-emissions pathways, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01511-4 52 cites.
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
Diagnosing CESM2 Biases in Northwest Indian Ocean Warming and Its Implications for India Summer Monsoon Precipitation, Chen et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl123060
Evaluating Deep Learning Models for Streamflow Prediction Under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 Climate Scenarios, Piri et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 10.1016/j.jastp.2026.106972
Global Kilometer-Scale Simulations with ARP-GEM2: Effect of Parameterized Convection and Calibration, Geoffroy & Saint-Martin, Journal of Climate pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0650.1
Spurious Drifts in the ITCZ Location and Associated Atmospheric Circulation in Decadal Climate Predictions, Mahmood et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl124719
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Artificial intelligence for climate prediction of extremes: State of the art, challenges, and future perspectives, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.914 113 cites.
Cryosphere & climate change
Attribution of the Spread in Antarctic Sea Ice-Driven Water Mass Transformation in Coupled Climate Models, Chen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026jc024388
Glaciers of Ecuador: a review of current scientific knowledge, Avila & Campos, Earth-Science Reviews Open Access 10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105680
Permafrost Degradation Drives Shifts in Chemostasis and Stream Geochemistry in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica, Wright et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026gl125327
Refreezing variability in the Greenland Ice Sheet firn zone and its response to extreme melt events, CHEN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.accre.2026.08.015
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Over the Next Three Centuries From an ISMIP6 Model Ensemble, Earth s Future, 10.1029/2024ef004561 73 cites.
Sea level & climate change
An improvement to short term variability in Global Mean Sea Level reconstruction, Shaw et al., Ocean science Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-22-2673-2026
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Global and regional climate change impacted Paleogene mammal faunas in Central Asia, Benevento et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-77374-7
Paleogeographic controls on Phanerozoic weathering rates and implications for climate regulation, Graham et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77289-3
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Opposing Changes in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Variability Produced by Orbital and Anthropogenic Forcing, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl109897 8 cites.
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Aggravated forest fragmentation undermines productivity spatial stability and amplifies climate impact, Huang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111455
An Integrated Oceanographic and Physiological Framework for Identifying Climate Refugia for Marine Invertebrates, Provost et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.71091
Climate and Ecosystem Impacts of a Weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in Brazil, Komarov et al., Earth Interactions Open Access 10.1175/ei-d-25-0050.1
Ecosystem response of an anthropogenically impacted lagoon to induced climate-driven water stagnation: an enclosure experiment, Burini et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108393
Habitat Selection and Intrapopulation Spatial Segregation in an Arctic Top Predator at the Southern Limit of Its Range, Ross et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.71024
Invertebrates at the Land-Sea Interface in a Climate Change World: Heatwaves, Floods, Fire and Ice, Byrne & Ross, Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.71096
Mapping the Global Habitat Redistribution of Critically Endangered Commercial Fish Species Under Climate Change, Gong et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.71077
Modeling climate adaptive habitat connectivity for conservation planning in Colombia, Song et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1002/ecog.08789
Modelling Climate-Resilient Habitats for Conservation and Restoration of Isoberlinia doka Craib and Stapf and Isoberlinia tomentosa (Harms) Craib and Stapf in Benin, Adjahossou et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1002/cli2.70062
Nonuniform resizing of marine life under climate change, Trindade-Santos et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2606099123
Parrotfish demonstrate little behavioural shift during marine heatwaves, Golanski et al., Biology Letters Open Access 10.1098/rsbl.2026.0337
Phenological fluctuations induce seasonal asymmetric warming in boreal forests, Yan et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77464-6
Plant dominated ecosystem respiration of alpine meadow in permafrost region under experimental warming, Qin et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.09.003
Predicted Global Redistribution of Pyrophilous Beetle Melanophila acuminata (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) Under Climate Change, Wang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.74317
Projected AMOC Weakening Controls Future Diatom Decline in the Subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, Doléac et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025ef007992
Virulent Parasites Emerge in Hosts With Rising Temperatures, Hector et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.71082
With Knowledge Comes Responsibility: Increasing Conservation Scientists’ Impact in a Time of Global Crises, Martin et al., Conservation Letters Open Access pdf 10.1111/con4.70076
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Global change and premature hatching of aquatic embryos, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.17488 22 cites.
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Atmospheric CH4 plateau sustained by NOx emission rise and southward shift, Zhu et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-026-10983-w
C-PEAT’s Global Peatland Carbon Database (v.2025), Loisel et al., Earth system science data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-18-6485-2026
Coordinated satellite, aircraft, and ground-based observations of a large transient methane release, He et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2603595123
Drivers of northern peatland CO2 fluxes revisited: interacting water level-temperature dependency, Behrens et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77456-6
Engineering carbon emissions induced by permafrost degradation and mitigation strategy: Insights from the Qinghai–Tibet Highway, LAN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.09.005
Enhanced carbon loss in the Southern Ocean under mitigation scenarios, Lee et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aee9228
Global ecosystem carbon losses from earthquakes, He et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-04012-x
Greenhouse Gas and Climate Effects of Global Wetland Restoration Under Future Warming, Wagner et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008632
Significant Decline in Carbon Storage at the Edges of Mangrove Forest, Zhao et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008723
Significant Reduction in Ethane Emissions in the Denver-Julesburg Basin From 2015 to 2021 From Oil and Natural Gas Operations, Ngulat et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access pdf 10.1029/2025jd044690
Temporal Amplification of Microbial Necromass Contribution to Soil Organic Carbon Under Nutrient Addition, Zhang et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2026gb009455
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Global riverine land-to-ocean carbon export constrained by observations and multi-model assessment, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01524-z 93 cites.
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Asymmetric Response of Land Precipitation Variability Under Carbon Dioxide Removal, Gan et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2026jd047086
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Enhancing electrochemical carbon dioxide capture with supercapacitors, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52219-3 61 cites.
Decarbonization
Building a scalable climate coalition for heavy industry, Wolfram et al., Science 10.1126/science.aef7190
Copper supply chain decarbonization for the energy transition must maximize copper recovery, Cox et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03977-z
Toward efficient green methanol from biomass and renewable power, Zhao et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77364-9
Towards a zero-waste city: carbon emissions and reduction potential from solid waste management in Wuhan, Tian et al., Figshare Open Access 10.6084/m9.figshare.33465965
Utilising urban energy structure as a carbon management strategy for carbon emissions mitigation and climate neutrality, Sun & Tang, Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-68670-9
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Permeability partitioning through the brittle-to-ductile transition and its implications for supercritical geothermal reservoirs, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52092-0 28 cites.
Black carbon
Atmospheric deposition, aquatic transformation and marine carbon sequestration potential of black carbon: A critical review, Wu et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108384
Increase in global warming potential of atmospheric black carbon since 1750, Shen et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-02085-z
Aerosols
Direct Radiative Impacts of Stratospheric Aerosols on the Tropical Troposphere: Clouds, Precipitation, and Circulation in Convection-Resolving and Global Simulations, McGraw & Polvani, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0688.1
Potential aerosol tradeoffs of vessel speed reduction for fresh ship plume composition and tracer coverage, Shi et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access 10.1038/s41612-026-01532-3
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Surface albedo regulates aerosol direct climate effect, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-52255-z 27 cites.
Climate change communications & cognition
Countering climate misinformation with large language models: Evidence from ChatGPT, Tsang & Wang, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000930
Moralizing reproduction in a warming world: rethinking climate-reproductive concern beyond WEIRD contexts, Tu et al., Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2026.2729092
Unsupervised NLP for quantifying sentiment deviation and framing in global climate discourse, K et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1827024
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Tackling the academic air travel dependency. An analysis of the (in)consistency between academics’ travel behaviour and their attitudes, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102908 27 cites.
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
A biological carbon pump code of practice for high seas fisheries, Cavan et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-026-00825-8
Collaborative learning networks on climate change adaptation practices among smallholder farmers: A case study from Central Uganda, Kekirunga et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100879
Genetically engineered crop adoption support yields and cultivation under climate change, Dong et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02737-3
Hail Risk and Cropland Exposure Changes in the United States, Bundy et al., Weather Climate and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-25-0160.1
Mapping the Global Habitat Redistribution of Critically Endangered Commercial Fish Species Under Climate Change, Gong et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.71077
No significant long-term enhancement of sedimentary carbon burial by intensive Porphyra farming: Evidence from Haizhou Bay, China, Chen et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108396
Spatiotemporal evolution and influencing factors of the agricultural carbon footprint in the yellow river basin, Zhou & Pan, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1793645
The OsUVR8-OsNAC3-OsERF117 signaling module mediates metabolic acclimation and climate adaptation in rice, Liu et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aef5945
Transitioning From Rice-Wheat to Diversified Rice-Based Rotations Enhances Rice Production and Mitigates Greenhouse Gas Emissions Across Asia, Wang et al., Earth s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2026ef008580
‘We always make it work’: How Swedish dairy farmers manage and prepare for an unknown future of extreme weather, Simonsson et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100881
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Climate change exacerbates the environmental impacts of agriculture, Science, 10.1126/science.adn3747 515 cites.
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Contrasting roles of climate change and land-use change on runoff dynamics in a semi-humid monsoon watershed of China, Afzal et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-67812-3
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Evaluation of precipitation extremes in ERA5 reanalysis driven regional climate simulations over the CORDEX-Australasia domain, Weather and Climate Extremes, 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100676 17 cites.
Climate change economics
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The role of green financial sector initiatives in the low-carbon transition: A theory of change, Global Environmental Change, 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102915 29 cites.
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Benchmarking climate futures: the public authorization of climate pathways and its political afterlives, Park, Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2026.2729097
Crediting temporarily bound carbon reduces emissions and costs in integrated production of EU refineries, Bussmann et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03891-4
Stringent climate policies and energy poverty: Evidence of spatial spillovers and challenges for a just transition, Bai & Huaccha, Energy Policy Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115590
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The impact of electricity market reform on renewable energy production, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114306 35 cites.
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Applying design thinking for innovative climate adaptation solutions: Building capacity for locally led adaptation, Ziervogel et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104481
Assessing Wildfire Hazard for Powerline Expansion Under the Changing Climates in Alberta, Canada, Zong et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl124354
Climate vulnerability and the subnational distribution of adaptation funding, Alberola, Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104488
Geospatial assessment of tropical islands vulnerability and impact under extreme cyclonic conditions, mitigation and management for climate-resilient planning, Raja et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.103134
Limits and barriers to climate adaptation among Indigenous women: Insights from Vedda communities in Sri Lanka, Garbutt et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104478
Lost in Projection: Uncertainty is Misrepresented in Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessments, Curran et al., Risk Analysis Open Access pdf 10.1111/risa.70331
Ten critical questions for scaling up floating developments, MacAfee et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-77492-2
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
What is limiting how we imagine climate change adaptation?, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 10.1016/j.cosust.2024.101476 43 cites.
Climate change impacts on human health
Health impacts of climate change on children and adolescents: an umbrella review, Yahaya et al., BMC Public Health Open Access 10.1186/s12889-026-29270-4
Metabolic response and microbial assembly in the invader Ageratina adenophora with contrasting growth under local plant leaf and soil inoculants, Zhao et al., Plant and Soil 10.1007/s11104-026-09027-z
Mortality risks of seasonal temperature anomalies and the unrecognized risk of winter warmth: a nationwide case-time series, Ham et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-026-71032-0
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Spatio-temporal characteristics of Heat stress over Nigeria using evaluated ERA5-HEAT reanalysis data, Weather and Climate Extremes, 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100704 24 cites.
Climate change & geopolitics
Climate and digital transitions in a changing global order: resource dependencies, connectivity and uneven development, Meraj et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2026.2726446
Climate change impacts on human culture
Climate extremes are associated with crime dynamics in China, Lin et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03948-4
Community-based archaeology reinforces Indigenous cultural resilience to climate change in Alaska, Hillerdal, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03970-6
Other
Investigation of the failure mechanism and reinforcement control effect of cut slopes under climate change, Meng, Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access pdf 10.3389/feart.2026.1896698
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season: An Above-Normal Season despite Strong El Niño Conditions, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 10.1175/bams-d-23-0305.1 15 cites.
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
The Anthropocene debate, Chernilo, European Journal of Social Theory 10.1177/1368431016651874
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Disaster effects of climate change in High Mountain Asia: State of art and scientific challenges, Advances in Climate Change Research, 10.1016/j.accre.2024.06.003 75 cites.
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
2025 Electricity ATB Technologies and Data Overview, National Renewable Energy Lab
The 2025 Electricity Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) provides consistent, freely available, technology-specific cost and performance parameters across a range of research and development (R&D) advancement scenarios, resource characteristics, and sites for electricity-generating technologies, both at present and with projections through 2060. Two sets of financial assumptions are available: The With Tax Credits Case includes some effects of tax credits enacted as of July 2025, and the Without Tax Credits Case (shown by default in the figures) does not. The performance parameters in the Electricity ATB include Capital expenditures (CAPEX), Operations and maintenance (O&M) expenditures, and Capacity factors.
Heat Pump Rates in Rhode Island, Zuo et al., Conservation Law Foundation, Green Energy Consumers Alliance, Acadia Center, and Environmental Defense Fund
The authors analyze the electric bills of heat pump customers served by Rhode Island Energy (RIE). Under today’s rates, most gas-heated homes would pay more after switching to heat pumps. Only 21% of natural gas-heated households would save on their annual energy bills after installing a heat pump — not because heat pumps are inherently expensive to run, but because electricity bills are inflated by RIE's outdated delivery rates. The grid can handle the additional winter load. RIE should create a dedicated delivery rate class for heat pump customers that reflects what these customers actually cost the system — rather than letting default volumetric rates collect far more than the cost of serving them.
A Livable Future: Protecting Jobs and Growth from Extreme Heat in South Asia's Cities, Jain et al., International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, The World Bank Group
South Asia must absorb roughly 280 million new working-age people by 2050, most of them in cities, at a time when its labor markets already struggle to keep pace. Extreme heat is widening that shortfall. It already subtracts the equivalent of 31 million full-time jobs a year across the region and erodes the earnings of those who keep working. The losses concentrate in the cities where the new workforce must find employment, and they fall hardest on the households least able to absorb them. Heat reduces productivity in existing work, discourages the investment that will create new jobs, and shifts labor demand towards cooling and heat-resilient industries. Managing it has become integral to the region’s growth and jobs agenda, and governments can begin now, through institutions and budgets already in place. The authors set out how: heat and South Asia’s jobs challenge; the costs of inaction are large and growing; what needs to happen: three pillars, 15 interventions; what each decision-maker can do now; and the decade ahead.
Heathrow Airport expansion risks for the Climate Change Act, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Manchester
The authors examine whether a third runway at Heathrow Airport is compatible with the UK’s domestic and international legal climate change obligations, and shows how growing airport capacity before climate technologies succeed will break the UK’s carbon budget. Through an analysis of future UK aviation scenarios and reviewing the status and outlook for key technology options, the authors findings show that Heathrow expansion cannot reasonably be considered consistent with UK Government climate targets. The authors examine three questions including the level of demand implied by an expanded Heathrow Airport; whether sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) can mitigate emissions arising from any net additional demand; and if greenhouse gas removal (GGR) expansion can address remaining additional residual emissions. This assessment is within the context of the UK’s Seventh Carbon Budget, which is a legally binding limit on greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the period when the third runway is proposed to start operating.
The Colorado River Water Supply Crisis in a Few Graphs: Part 2, Agricultural Water Use in the Lower Basin, Schmidt et al., Getches-Wilkinson Center, University of Colorado Law School
Reductions in Lower Basin water use during the last four years, including forecast use in 2026, are similar to the initial targets for Lower Basin shortages described in the Final Environmental Impact Statement for Post-2026 Operational Guidelines and Strategies for Lake Powell and Lake Mead (FEIS) and the accompanying Record of Decision (ROD). Lower Basin consumptive use in 2023, 2024, and 2025, and forecast for 2026 has been the smallest for the entire 2010-2026 period. These four years of smallest use are between 1.4 and 1.7 million acre feet/year (maf/yr) less than the 7.50 maf/yr amount generally recognized as the Lower Basin’s mainstem allocation. Reductions in Lower Basin use have been achieved by large reductions implemented by Central Arizona Project (CAP) contractors and subcontractors, the Imperial Irrigation District (IID), and non-CAP water users in Arizona. The reductions in use in the IID have been in summer water use and have not affected consumptive use in winter when garden crops, such as lettuce, onions, carrots, and broccoli, are grown.
Employing Domain-Informed AI for Energy Planning and Decarbonization under Uncertainty, Obringer et al., Institute for Water, Environment and Health, United Nations University
Renewable energy is a critical part of climate change mitigation but is also more susceptible to adverse climate conditions than fossil fuel-based energy generation. The electricity grid is further stressed by growing demand and the expansion of power-intensive end-uses, e.g., data centers and EVs, whose growth trajectory already exceeds the anticipated capacity expansion needs. Current long-term planning of electric grid upgrades and expansion generally relies on historical weather and climate trends that are unlikely to remain stable in the coming decades. In the past, the complexity of large-scale climate downscaling has inhibited deeper integration of climate projections and energy planning models. Failing to integrate climate projections exposes public infrastructure to severe physical and fiscal risk. Domain-informed AI can be used as a complement to existing tools to provide forward-looking information on the effects of climate change on renewable energy integration, informing decarbonization policies. Unregulated AI data centers consume massive amounts of electricity, directly straining the grid. Policymakers should mandate that this computational infrastructure of AI operates primarily on verifiable renewable energy.
Opposition to Renewable Energy Facilities in the United States: September 2026 Edition, Romany Webb and Ivonne Norman, Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Columbia University
The authors document legal obstacles and challenges to renewable energy siting at the state- and local-levels in the United States. In particular, the the authors focus on: (a) state laws and local ordinances that impede the siting of utility-scale solar, wind, battery storage, and related transmission projects, referred to as “state and local restrictions”; and (b) instances of organized opposition to individual projects, referred to as “contested projects”.
Peat-Emit. Supporting developing economies to estimate and report greenhouse gas emissions from organic soils, Freeman et al., Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Accurate estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from organic soils are essential for effective climate reporting and mitigation, yet developing countries often lack region-specific data to support reliable estimates. The authors address that gap by reviewing and synthesizing the latest available evidence on emissions from organic soils to develop updated greenhouse gas emission factors (EFs) tailored to developing economies. The authors focus on terrestrial emissions of carbon dioxide (CO?), methane (CH?), and nitrous oxide (N?O), and also evaluate emissions from tropical peatland fires, including fuel consumption and combustion completeness. Developing regions included are East and Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and Africa, where existing emission factors have been limited or insufficiently representative. Although aquatic emission pathways were reviewed, they were not updated because new robust data is still lacking. These updated factors will improve the accuracy of national greenhouse gas inventories and support countries in meeting their reporting obligations and advancing climate mitigation efforts under international frameworks.
How Climate Resilient Are the World’s Largest Cities?, AlphaGeo
Geography is not destiny. Cities with near-identical physical risk scores diverge by as much as 33 resilience-adjusted risk (RAJ) points depending on the adaptation measures in place — demonstrating that risk is not fixed, and that resilience is a function of policy and investment, not geography alone. South Asian megacities face a compounding crisis. Ahmedabad (RAJ 41), Hyderabad Pakistan (41), Multan (38), Dhaka (36), Kolkata (35), and Lahore (35) combine extreme physical exposure with only moderate adaptation performance. European, African, and Latin American capitals outperform. Chicago, Addis Ababa, Melbourne, Barcelona, Buenos Aires, Paris, and Nairobi all score below 14 on the RAJ scale, making them among the most resilient major cities globally. Chinese megacities are closing the gap. Beijing (50%), Tianjin (49%), Shenzhen (49%), and Shanghai (46%) lead globally on adaptation efficiency — consistently converting high physical exposure into substantially lower residual risk. Mispriced risk is concentrated in South Asia. South Asia accounts for the majority of cities where residual RAJ scores remain high and adaptation rates remain comparatively low relative to the scale of physical exposure.
WMO Air Quality and Climate Bulleting, World Meteorological Organization
The authors highlight the need for improved atmospheric observations of air pollutants such as fine particulate matter, and ground-level ozone, as well as aerosol like black carbon and microplastics, which are not sufficiently monitored even though they are widespread and are potentially harmful to ecosystems. They stress the importance of complementary and coordinated policies on air quality and climate because they cannot be dealt with in isolation.
Weathering Extremes: A Toolkit for Information Resilience Amid Disaster, Jennie King, Council on Strategic Risks
Extreme weather events are fueling dangerous mis- and disinformation in communities across the United States. These crises can happen anywhere, as hyper-local events are weaponized by domestic or transnational actors. The resulting chaos endangers lives and hinders local responses during a crisis, and has corrosive effects on policymaking and community resilience in the long term. It also threatens to undermine national security by disrupting critical infrastructure, empowering extremists and foreign adversaries, and paralyzing decision-making. The toolkit positions information resilience as a key element of disaster preparedness, response, and recovery. It provides a model that combines upstream efforts to build readiness and trust architecture, with frameworks to triage and counter information threats when a crisis strikes. It is designed primarily for emergency managers, resilience officers, and public information officers. In tandem, it details how a more expansive set of actors is needed to realize and embed outcomes, working across government at the state, local, and tribal levels.
Assessing overcapacity risk in India’s solar PV manufacturing market, Sharma et al., The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis
India’s solar PV module manufacturing capacity reached approximately 233 gigawatts (GW) by June 2026, placing it among the world’s largest module manufacturing bases. However, this capacity is heavily concentrated in modules, at nearly 7x cell capacity and 116x ingot-wafer capacity, signaling a structural gap in upstream manufacturing. India’s module manufacturing base is operating at 35–40% utilization, well below the 50–65% level required for sustainable operations. With manufacturing capacity already exceeding domestic demand, further capacity additions risk widening the supply-demand gap in modules. Data centers, green hydrogen, and export markets could be the largest sources of incremental module demand by 2030, offering 17–22GW of annual additional opportunity beyond conventional solar deployment. Their ability to scale up will depend on supportive policy, project execution, and evolving procurement dynamics. Vertically integrated manufacturers with scale and technology depth are positioned to define the industry’s next growth phase. Small-scale assemblers, legacy Passive Emitter and Rear Cell (PERC)-based lines, and manufacturers without an upstream integration roadmap will be at risk of consolidation, acquisitions, or exit.
Built for backup, contracted to run: China’s coal support system risks crowding out clean power, Qi Qin and Christine Shearer, Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air
New coal power plants entering operation in China reached the highest first-half year level since 2016, with 10 GW entering operation for every 1 GW retired, despite a policy shift towards tighter control of new project approvals. China commissioned 30 GW of new coal power, up 43% from last year, while retiring only 2.7 GW. Another 25.4 GW started construction. Coal power generation rebounded 3.4% year-on-year in H1 2026, reversing the 2025 decline. The rapid expansion of coal power capacity led to worsening oversupply, reflected both in the increase of wasted wind and solar generation and in falling use of coal power plants. The rebound was not evidence of a broad return to coal following LNG shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. China’s combined domestic coal production and imports in fact fell by 1.4% year-on-year in H1 2026, rather than expanding in response to the external energy shock. Growth in clean energy supply and electrification helped offset the fall in oil supply and limit increases in fossil fuel consumption.
Challenges related to sea level rise and ways and approaches to address it : report of the Secretary-General, General Assembly of the United Nations
The authors provide an assessment of the current context of sea level rise, key challenges and ongoing efforts by Member States and the United Nations system to address such challenges. The author provide forward-looking recommendations recognizing the global multidimensional effects of sea level rise and their implications for human rights and sustainable development. The authors call for strengthened international cooperation to ensure equitable, just and sustainable solutions that uphold the rights of affected States and their populations, through international governance frameworks and action that safeguard dignity, stability and opportunities for those affected and future generations.
Hidden assets: The economic and health case for climate and clean air action, Climate and Clean Air Coalition, United Nations Environment Programme
The authors provide the most complete assessment to date of the benefits and costs of integrated climate and clean air action, complemented by an empirically grounded analysis of how these benefits can be delivered quickly enough to avoid premature deaths and disease and improve the lives of many of the world’s most vulnerable people.
EV Transition Check 2026: Measuring progress toward zero emissions for road transport in Europe, Marie Rajon Bernard and Alexander Plummer, International Council on Clean Transportation
The authors assess the progress of Europe’s road transport toward zero emissions. This second edition widens the scope to include trucks and buses in addition to passenger cars. The authors provide a broad range of data and analysis for a comprehensive snapshot of the current status of the transition to battery electric vehicles (BEV). In terms of the affordability and accessibility of BEVs, the number of passenger car BEV models on offer in Europe’s largest automotive market, Germany, has quadrupled between 2020 and 2025 to about 160, and affordable options, defined as BEVs priced below €30,000, have grown to about 35. BEVs in the three largest car segments (medium, upper-medium, and luxury) have already reached upfront cost parity with comparable internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). Although the median BEV sales price has increased in recent years, so has the electric range by approximately 30% on average in the past 5 years. Factoring in improvements in performance as well as inflation, BEV prices have decreased by about 18% over the past 5 years, spurred primarily by a decrease in global battery prices, which, adjusted for inflation, have fallen by about 35% in the past 5 years. The delta between battery cost reductions and BEV sale prices indicates further potential for BEV price reductions in the upcoming years.
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