Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #28 2024
Posted on 11 July 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Antarctic Bottom Water Warming, Freshening, and Contraction in the Eastern Bellingshausen Basin, Johnson et al., Geophysical Research Letters
Cold winds blowing over polynyas (areas of ice-free water) on the Antarctic continental shelf create sea ice, forming very cold and somewhat salty, hence very dense, waters. These dense shelf waters descend the continental slope to the abyss, mixing with adjacent waters to form Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). AABW spreads northward from there, filling much of the global abyssal ocean as it mixes with warmer, lighter waters above. AABW has been warming on pressure surfaces, freshening and cooling on density surfaces, and reducing in volume (contracting). These changes are likely a result of melting Antarctic ice sheets, which freshen the shelf waters, making them less dense, hence less able to sink to the bottom. We compare profiles of ocean temperature and salinity in the eastern Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean collected in 2023 and 2024 by robotic freely drifting profilers to data collected from ships from the early 1990s to the late 2010s. We find all of the above listed changes, but also acceleration of the warming, with the rate from 2017/18 to 2023/24 being nearly triple the rate from 1992/95 to 2023/24. The contraction rate has nearly quadrupled. This acceleration has been predicted by high-resolution climate model simulations.
Past and Future Trends in Clear-Air Turbulence Over the Northern Hemisphere, Foudad et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres:
Clear-Air Turbulence (CAT) is associated with wind shear in the vicinity of jet streams in upper atmospheric levels. This turbulence occurs in cloudless regions and causes most weather-related aircraft accidents. Recent studies have shown that in response to climate change, CAT could significantly increase over certain regions as a consequence of strengthening of jet streams. In this study we use several atmospheric reanalyses and coupled model experiments database to evaluate CAT recent and future changes in the Northern Hemisphere. Several CAT diagnostics are computed to assess the sensitivity of the results to different turbulence representations. A significant positive trend in CAT frequency is found in the reanalyses in different Northern Hemisphere regions over the period 1980–2021. The signal-to-noise analysis shows that over North Africa, East Asia and Middle East the increase of CAT occurrence in the last decades is likely attributed to the response to anthropogenic forcing. In contrast, over the North Atlantic and North Pacific the response to external forcing is not detectable due to a weak signal to noise ratio related to large internal variability.
Aggressive Aerosol Mitigation Policies Reduce Chances of Keeping Global Warming to Below 2C, Wood et al., Earth's Future:
Using the approximate partial radiative perturbation (APRP) method, future shortwave aerosol effective radiative forcing changes are isolated from other shortwave changes in an 18-member ensemble of ScenarioMIP projections from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). APRP-derived near-term (2020–2050) aerosol forcing trends are correlated with published model emulation values but are 30%–50% weaker. Differences are likely explained by location shifts of aerosol-impacting emissions and their resultant influences on susceptible clouds. Despite weaker changes, implementation of aggressive aerosol cleanup policies will have a major impact on global warming rates over 2020–2050. APRP-derived aerosol radiative forcings are used together with a forcing and impulse response model to estimate global temperature trends. Strong mitigation of GHGs, as in SSP1-2.6, likely prevents warming exceeding 2C since preindustrial but the strong aerosol cleanup in this scenario increases the probability of exceeding 2C by 2050 from near zero without aerosol changes to 6% with cleanup. When the same aerosol forcing is applied to a more likely GHG forcing scenario (i.e., SSP2-4.5), aggressive aerosol cleanup more than doubles the probability of reaching 2C by 2050 from 30% to 80%.
Climate data democracy is essential for climate action, Nagendra et al., PLOS Climate:
Climate Data Democracy is critical to open up a new era where climate data does not remain a commodity whose access is restricted to the learned or moneyed few. With the climate crisis unfolding around us, the need for informed action has never been as urgent, or apparent, as it is now. Data should not act as a barrier to action, as it does today. We argue for academia to take an enabling role, acting as a node to connect governments, business, civil society and other critical stakeholders.
From this week's government and NGO section:
Global trends in climate change litigation: 2024 snapshot, Joana Setzer and Catherine Higham, The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change, Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science
At least 230 new climate cases were filed in 2023. Many of these are seeking to hold governments and companies accountable for climate action. However, the number of cases expanded less rapidly last year than previously, which may suggest a consolidation and concentration of strategic litigation efforts in areas anticipated to have a high impact. Climate cases have continued to spread to new countries, with cases filed for the first time in Panama and Portugal in 2023. 2023 was an important year for international climate change litigation, with major international courts and tribunals being asked to rule and advise on climate change. Just 5% of climate cases have been brought before international courts, but many of these cases have significant potential to influence domestic proceedings.
The authors present the fossil fuel holdings of over 7,500 pension funds, insurance companies, asset managers, hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, endowment funds, and asset management arms of commercial banks. In May 2024, these institutional investors held $4.3 trillion in bonds and shares of fossil fuel companies. For the second year in a row, Vanguard holds the sad record as the world’s biggest fossil fuel investor. The US asset management company holds and manages assets of coal, oil, and gas companies worth $413 billion. Due to its sheer volume and because it does not have any fossil fuel policy, Vanguard is the number one in fossil fuel investments worldwide. BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset management company, holds rank number 2. Its' fossil fuels assets add up to $400 billion. Fossil fuel investors number 3 and 4 are State Street, which holds $171 billion, closely followed by Capital Group, which holds $165 billion. Collectively these four US asset managers hold and manage assets in fossil fuel companies worth $1.1 trillion.
145 articles in 63 journals by 846 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Drivers of future extratropical sea surface temperature variability changes in the North Pacific, Gunnarson et al., Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-3935510/v1
Is El Niño-Southern Oscillation a Tipping Element in the Climate System?, Bayr et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl107848
Pacific Decadal Oscillation Modulates the Impacts of Bering Sea Ice Loss on North American Temperature, Gao et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109447
Role of the Antarctic Circumpolar Circulation in Current Asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic Warming, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110265
Observations of climate change, effects
Antarctic Bottom Water Warming, Freshening, and Contraction in the Eastern Bellingshausen Basin, Johnson et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109937
Anthropogenic forcing and subtropical anticyclonic drivers of the August 2022 heatwave in China, Liang et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100707
Emerging Hotspots of Surface Chlorophyll Trend in the Tropical Oceans, Tian & Zhang, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2023jc020681
Evaluation of the Water Mass Composition in the Sea of Okhotsk and Its Long-Term Change Using an Advanced Mapping Technique, Mensah et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2023jc020374
Influences of Anthropogenic Forcing on the Exceptionally Warm August 2022 over the Eastern Tibetan Plateau, Duan et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-23-0179.1
Past and Future Trends in Clear-Air Turbulence Over the Northern Hemisphere, Foudad et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2023jd040261
Southwest Pacific Ocean Warming Driven by Circulation Changes, Sutton et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109174
Temperatures and hypolimnetic oxygen in German lakes: Observations, future trends and adaptation potential, Schwefel et al., Ambio Open Access 10.1007/s13280-024-02046-z
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Air temperature changes in SW Greenland in the second half of the 18th century, Przybylak et al., Climate of the Past Open Access 10.5194/cp-20-1451-2024
The Hawai‘i Climate Data Portal (HCDP), Longman et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-23-0188.1
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Decreased ENSO post-2100 in response to formation of a permanent El Niño-like state under greenhouse warming, Geng et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-50156-9
Decreasing global tropical cyclone frequency in CMIP6 historical simulations, Zhao et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adl2142
Dynamic and Thermodynamic Control of the Response of Winter Climate and Extreme Weather to Projected Arctic Sea-Ice Loss, Ye et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109271
Exploring the influence of improved horizontal resolution on extreme precipitation in Southern Africa major river basins: insights from CMIP6 HighResMIP simulations, Samuel et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-024-07325-9
Historical and future extreme climate events in highly vulnerable small Caribbean Islands, Esteban-Cantillo et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-024-07276-1
Northern Hemisphere Stratosphere-Troposphere Circulation Change in CMIP6 Models: 2. Mechanisms and Sources of the Spread, Karpechko et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd040823
Projected wind and waves around the Cuban archipelago using a multimodel ensemble, Hidalgo-Mayo et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access 10.1007/s00704-024-05093-4
Simulation of climate changes in Northern Eurasia by two versions of the INM RAS Earth system model, Bragina et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-024-07306-y
Temperature and precipitation changes under CMIP6 projections in the Mujib Basin, Jordan, Alsalal et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-05087-2
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
A machine learning based deep convective trigger for climate models, Kumar et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07332-w
Added value of EURO-CORDEX downscaling over the complex orography region of the Pyrenees, Bilbao-Barrenetxea et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-024-07318-8
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Assessing CMIP6 uncertainties at global warming levels, Evin et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-024-07323-x
Characterizing clouds with the CCClim dataset, a machine learning cloud class climatology, Kaps et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-16-3001-2024
On the deep learning approach for improving the representation of urban climate: The Paris urban heat island and temperature extremes, Johannsen et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102039
Cryosphere & climate change
Altimetry-based ice-marginal lake water level changes in Greenland, Dømgaard et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01522-4
Heterogeneity in ice-wedge permafrost degradation revealed across spatial scales, Braun & Andresen, Remote Sensing of Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2024.114299
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
A numerical model sheds new light on the effects of ocean acidification on an indicator species, Vodopivec, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17398
Analyses from stand to tree level allow disentangling the effects of age, size, origin and competition on tree growth sensitivity to climate in natural and afforested Scots pine forests, Rubio-Cuadrado et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110148
Climate change vulnerability of Arctic char across Scandinavia, Muhlfeld et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17387
Climate disturbances during critical periods pose risks to European hamster conservation efforts, ?opucki et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access 10.1111/ddi.13899
Climatic conditions at provenance origin influence growth stability to changes in climate in two major tree species, Di Fabio et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1422165
Defoliator outbreaks track with warming across the Pacific coastal temperate rainforest of North America, Howe et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1111/ecog.07370
Dependence of Europe's most threatened mammals on movement to adapt to climate change, Alagador, Conservation Biology 10.1111/cobi.14315
Future trends of marine fish biomass distributions from the North Sea to the Barents Sea, Gordó-Vilaseca et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-49911-9
Increased crossing of thermal stress thresholds of vegetation under global warming, Li et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17406
Long-term climatic stability drives accumulation and maintenance of divergent freshwater fish lineages in a temperate biodiversity hotspot, Buckley et al., Heredity Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41437-024-00700-6
No slowdown of growing season extension with warming in a permafrost-affected meadow on the Tibetan Plateau, Yan et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.14359
Predictability of ecological and evolutionary dynamics in a changing world, Bozzuto & Ives Ives, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rspb.2024.0980
Predicting the distribution of potentially suitable habitat in China for Cirsium japonicum Fisch. ex DC. under future climate scenarios based on the R-optimized MaxEnt model, Fang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.11653
The impacts of elevated CO2 on forest growth, mortality, and recovery in the Amazon rainforest, Yao et al., Earth System Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/esd-15-763-2024
The joint effects of local, climatic, and spatial variables determine soil oribatid mite community assembly along a temperate forest elevational gradient, Liu & Wu, Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.11590
Vulnerability of Eastern Tropical Pacific chondrichthyan fish to climate change, Cerutti?Pereyra et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17373
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Carbon and carbon-13 in the preindustrial and glacial ocean, Schmittner & Fillman, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000434
Changes in productivity partitioning induced by precipitation extremes increase inaccuracy of grassland carbon estimation, Sun et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17404
Changing climatic controls on the greenhouse gas balance of thermokarst bogs during succession after permafrost thaw, Heffernan et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17388
Coarse to superfine: can hyperspectral soil organic carbon models predict higher-resolution information?, Kabiri & O’Rourke, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1392469
Controls on Stable Methane Isotope Values in Northern Peatlands and Potential Shifts in Values Under Permafrost Thaw Scenarios, Kuhn et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2023jg007837
Dormant season warming amplifies daytime CO2 emissions from a temperate urban salt marsh, Vieillard et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1340416
Fantastic wetlands and why to monitor them: Demonstrating the social and financial benefit potential of methane abatement through salt marsh restoration, Reilly et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000317
Four decades of data indicate that planted mangroves stored up to 75% of the carbon stocks found in intact mature stands, Bourgeois et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adk5430
Global Greenhouse Gas Reconciliation 2022, Deng et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2024-103
How Critical Is the Accuracy of the Atmospheric Transport Modeling to Improve the Urban CO2 Emission in India?—A Lagrangian-Based Approach, Sukumaran et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd039680
Mountain Peatlands and Drought: Carbon Cycling in the Pyrenees Amidst Global Climate Change, Garisoain et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2024jg008041
Not all soil carbon is created equal: Labile and stable pools under nitrogen input, Zang et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17405
Observational and Numerical Modeling Constraints on the Global Ocean Biological Carbon Pump, Doney et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2024gb008156
Profound Loss of Microbial Necromass Carbon in Permafrost Thaw-Subsidence in the Central Tibetan Plateau, Zhou et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.07.002
Review article: A systematic review of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon in northern permafrost, Heffernan et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-2023-152
Seasonal Carbon Dioxide Concentrations and Fluxes Throughout Denmark's Stream Network, Martinsen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2024jg008031
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Suppression of Nitrogen Deposition on Global Forest Soil CH4 Uptake Depends on Nitrogen Status, Cen et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.170559516.62605238/v1
The emission of CO from tropical rainforest soils, van Asperen et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-3183-2024
Towards a sector-specific CO?CO2 emission ratio: satellite-based observations of CO release from steel production in Germany, Schneising et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-7609-2024
Two decades of riparian woodland water vapor and carbon dioxide flux responses to environmental variability, Gallo et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110147
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Synergies of storing hydrogen at the crest of CO2${rm CO}&{2}$ or other gas storage, Sun et al., Energy & Fuels Open Access 10.1021/ef010067n
Decarbonization
Exploiting different electricity markets via highly rate-mismatched modular electrochemical synthesis, Wang et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-024-01578-8
Investigating the theoretical and experimental effects of sand dust and sandstorms on photovoltaic power plants in arid environments, Zaghba et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101507
Solar aporias: On precarity and praxis in interdisciplinary research on solar energy, Stock & Sareen, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103661
Towards carbon-neutral and clean propulsion in heavy-duty transportation with hydroformylated Fischer–Tropsch fuels, Voelker et al., Nature Energy Open Access 10.1038/s41560-024-01581-z
Willingness to accept a wind power plant: A survey study in the South of Italy, Vergine et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114201
Wind energy potential and large-scale turbine performance analysis for Mogadishu – Somalia, Dursun & Aykut, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101514
Geoengineering climate
Decomposing the effective radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols based on CMIP6 Earth system models, Kalisoras et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-7837-2024
How scientific and partisan media shape support for research on stratospheric aerosol injection, Bolsen et al., Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2024.2375900
Opinion: The scientific and community-building roles of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) – past, present, and future, Visioni et al., Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-766
Aerosols
Aggressive Aerosol Mitigation Policies Reduce Chances of Keeping Global Warming to Below 2C, Wood et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef004233
Co-Benefits of Mitigating Aerosol Pollution to Future Solar and Wind Energy in China Toward Carbon Neutrality, Ren et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109296
Hidden Large Aerosol-Driven Cloud Cover Effect Over High-Latitude Ocean, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd039312
Climate change communications & cognition
An Analysis of K–12 Climate Change Science Standards in the United States, Beaver et al., Weather, Climate and Society, l.10.1175/WCAS-D-23-0113.1
Opposing positions, dividing interactions, and hostile affect: A systematic review and conceptualization of “online climate change polarization”, van Eck, WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.906
Politicians and climate change: A systematic review of the literature, Moore et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.908
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
A Risky Business? Climate Change and Meat Reduction in Aotearoa New Zealand. A Media Framing Analysis, Booth et al., Environmental Communication Open Access 10.1080/17524032.2024.2372585
A systematic literature review on the adaptation of women in fisheries-based families on climate change impacts, Shaffril et al., Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences 10.1007/s13412-024-00963-9
Assessing the climate change impacts on Coffee arabica cultivation regions in China, Zhu et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-05077-4
Barriers confronting smallholder cassava farmers in the adoption and utilization of climate-smart agriculture in the Afigya Kwabre South District, Ghana, Baffour?Ata et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access 10.1002/cli2.77
Benefits and barriers to the adoption of climate-smart agriculture practices in West Africa: A systematic review, Agyekum et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability 10.1002/cli2.79
Climate change impact on Mediterranean viticultural regions and site-specific climate risk-reduction strategies, Prada et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Open Access 10.1007/s11027-024-10146-0
Climate risk adaptation through livestock insurance: evidence from a pilot programme in Nigeria, Aina et al., Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2024.2373801
Comparison of the calculated frost event return period based on copula models under climate change: a case study of Chadegan region in Isfahan province- Iran, Mazaheri et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-05064-9
Correction to: Predicting climate change impacts on potential distribution of cashew stem and root borer Neoplocaederus ferrugineus in India based on CMIP6 projections, Maruthadurai et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-024-05094-3
Exploring combined adaptation strategies to improve crop yield and smallholder farmers’ welfare, Nonvide, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2365941
Exploring the role of high-value crops to reduce agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in New Zealand, Thomas et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access 10.1007/s10113-024-02267-8
Exploring trends and variability of climate change indices in the agro-ecological zones of Pakistan and their driving mechanisms, Hina et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8540
Impacts of the global food system on terrestrial biodiversity from land use and climate change, Boakes et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-49999-z
Long-term straw return to a wheat-maize system results in topsoil organic C saturation and increased yields while no stimulating or reducing yield-scaled N2O and NO emissions, Yao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.109937
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Permaculture enhances carbon stocks, soil quality and biodiversity in Central Europe, Reiff et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01405-8
Reduced actual vapor pressure exerts a significant influence on maize yield through vapor pressure deficit amid climate warming, Zhang et al., International Journal of Biometeorology Open Access 10.1007/s00484-024-02727-0
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Climatology and trends of atmospheric water vapour transport in New Zealand, Krishna et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access 10.1007/s00704-024-05072-9
Climatology and trends of atmospheric water vapour transport in New Zealand, Krishna et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology Open Access 10.1007/s00704-024-05072-9
Indian ocean warming, extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole events, and their impact on monthly Indian Monsoon rainfall from June to November in NMME models, Karrevula et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107572
Recent and near-term future changes in impacts-relevant seasonal hydroclimate in the world's Mediterranean climate regions, Seager et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8551
Response of streamflow and sediment variability to cascade dam development and climate change in the Sai Gon Dong Nai River basin, Nguyen et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-024-07319-7
The nonlinear impact of climate change on inland waterway transportation in the Upper Mississippi—Illinois River Region, Chen et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ad5bfc
Climate change economics
Climate policy as social policy? A comprehensive assessment of the economic impact of climate action in the UK, Sudmant et al., Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences Open Access 10.1007/s13412-024-00955-9
Driving towards a just transition? The case of the European car industry, Szabó & Newell , Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103649
Exploring the influence of financial development on climate physical risk: insights from China, Chen et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2374319
Impact of economic growth, energy consumption, and trade openness on carbon emissions: evidence from the top 20 emitting nations, Methmini et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2375737
Socio-economic implications of forest-based biofuels for marine transportation in the Arctic: Sweden as a case study, Yacout et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1414813
The ethics of climate change loss and damage, Düvel & García?Portela, WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.910
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Addressing machine learning bias to foster energy justice, Chen et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103653
Domestic renewable energy industries and national decarbonization policy, Møller, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114249
Driving factors and decoupling analysis of carbon emissions from energy consumption in high energy-consuming regions: a case study of Liaoning province, Feng & Yan, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1406754
Effective domestic climate policies to protect small island states, Leal Filho et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02005-2
Energy-efficiency policies reinforce energy injustices: The caring energy practices of low-income households in Norway, Woods et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103663
Environmental apprehension under COP26 agreement: Examining the influence of environmental-related technologies and energy consumption on ecological footprint, Rao et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-024-05526-7
EU emissions trading in the buildings sector – an ex-ante assessment, Braungardt et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2371387
Facilitating sustainable energy transition of Nepal: A best-fit model to prioritize influential socio-economic and climate perception factors on household energy behaviour, Bhattarai et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101505
Net zero by 2050: the case for green industrial policy, Arcand & Meadowcroft, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2024.2375899
Options to enhance China’s national emission trading system design for carbon neutrality, Zhang et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2375586
Pathways to zero emissions in California’s heavy-duty transportation sector, Hennessy et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/ad54ed
Revisiting tourist arrivals, CO2 emissions and pandemic crisis links using the Quantile-on-Quantile (QQ) approach, Min et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-024-05197-x
State-led carbon data value chain development: a case study of the Republic of Korea, In et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2371385
Supply-side climate policy: A new frontier in climate governance, Newell & Daley, WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.909
The co-benefits of offshore wind under the UK Renewable Obligation scheme: Integrating sustainability in energy policy evaluation, Ghorbani Pashakolaie et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114259
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Characterizing Climatic Socio-Environmental Tipping Points in Coastal Communities: A Conceptual Framework for Research and Practice, Shortridge et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2023ef004123
Clothing color effect as a target of the smallest scale climate change adaptation, Ichinose et al., International Journal of Biometeorology Open Access 10.1007/s00484-024-02726-1
Disaster induced displacement and durable solutions in Africa, Mateko & Vutula, Natural Hazards Open Access 10.1007/s11069-024-06750-7
Energy resilience assessment: Incorporating consideration of recoverability and adaptability in risk assessment of energy infrastructure, Janta et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101506
Legacies of childhood learning for climate change adaptation, Jackson et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102878
Living in Mediterranean cities in the context of climate change: A review, Nastos & Saaroni, International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8546
Progress and gaps in U.S. Adaptation policy at the local level, Tietjen et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102882
Quantifying and communicating uncertain climate change hazards in participatory climate change adaptation processes, Müller & Döll Döll, Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2023-1958
The production, distribution and attribution of risk: a conceptual framework to climate-related risk management from the perspective of Arraigo in Bogotá, Colombia, López Meneses, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2369617
Climate change impacts on human health
Extreme Temperatures, Birth Outcomes, and Social Inequalities: Evidence from South China, Wang et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-23-0061.1
COther
Beyond disobedience: ethical frontiers and political strategies in the climate crisis, Chen & Zhang, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2024.2376946
Ocean iron cycle feedbacks decouple atmospheric CO2 from meridional overturning circulation changes, Lauderdale, Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-49274-1
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Charting a course for climate policy: blurred policy boundaries, engaging the global south, and reaching beyond incrementalism, Dubash et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2370637
Climate data democracy is essential for climate action, Nagendra et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000447
Climate research on big ocean islands, Aucan et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02053-8
Higher-resolution projections needed for small island climates, Evans et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02028-9
The urgent need for social science and humanities knowledge for climate action in Europe, Rosamond et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000450
Book reviews
Petrochemical planet. Multiscalar battles of industrial transformation, Ibelli-Bianco, International Journal of Environmental Studies 10.1080/00207233.2023.2270303
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
PREPUBLICATION Modernizing Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimation, National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
For more than 75 years, high-hazard structures in the U.S., including dams and nuclear power plants, have been engineered to withstand floods resulting from the most unlikely but possible precipitation, termed Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). The authors recommend a new definition of PMP and present a vision for a method relevant to the design, operation, and regulation of critical infrastructure. The new definition targets precipitation depths with an extremely low exceedance probability instead of assuming rainfall is bounded and considers specified climate periods so that PMP estimates can change as the climate changes.
Right to Life with Dignity for Climate Displaced Persons: Proposing a Legal Standard Based on International Human Rights Norms & Local and Indigenous Peoples’ Perspective, Scherer et al., International Center for Advocates Against Discrimination
Drawing on the centrality of dignity, the authors argue for the application of human rights protections to climate-displaced persons.
The use of AI for improving energy security, Rueda et al, RAND
The authors provide insights into the state of the art of AI applications for the power grid and examine the associated risks and opportunities.
Climate Change and Mass Atrocities, Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
The authors provide an overview of the different ways climate vulnerability and climate change can compound atrocity risks by examining the situations in Yemen, the Central Sahel (Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger), and the Lake Chad Basin, with a particular focus on Nigeria.
Global trends in climate change litigation: 2024 snapshot, Joana Setzer and Catherine Higham, The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change, Environment at the London School of Economics and Political Science
At least 230 new climate cases were filed in 2023. Many of these are seeking to hold governments and companies accountable for climate action. However, the number of cases expanded less rapidly last year than previously, which may suggest a consolidation and concentration of strategic litigation efforts in areas anticipated to have a high impact. Climate cases have continued to spread to new countries, with cases filed for the first time in Panama and Portugal in 2023. 2023 was an important year for international climate change litigation, with major international courts and tribunals being asked to rule and advise on climate change. Just 5% of climate cases have been brought before international courts, but many of these cases have significant potential to influence domestic proceedings.
Climate Justice and Human Mobility: Bridging EU Commitments and Policies, Alicia Scodanibbio, Egmont, Royal Institute for International Relations
The author examines the European Union’s response to the climate-migration nexus, tracing its historical evolution and current challenges. It highlights the need for a human rights-centered approach to policymaking, emphasizing the importance of addressing the structural inequalities and power imbalances inherent in climate-induced migration. By integrating climate justice principles, the EU can pave the way for a more inclusive and sustainable approach to the challenges posed by climate change and human mobility.
Climate Governance in Somaliland: Policy Gaps, Challenges and Participatory Approaches Towards Pastoral Climate Resilience, Sharmaarke Abdi Musse, Toda Peace Institute
The author addresses the critical challenge of climate change adaptation in Somaliland, where the impacts of climate change have led to severe social, economic, political, and ecological consequences. Specifically, the paper emphasizes the urgent need for climate policies and adaptation strategies that cater to the context’s specific needs, effectively bridging global climate action consensus with localized approaches.
Climate Change Indicators in the United States: Fifth Edition, Environmental Protection Agency
The authors document how climate change is affecting the United States today, the significance of these changes, and their possible consequences for people, the environment, and society. Using EPA's climate change indicators and relevant scientific literature, the authors group indicators into eight themes that help to show interconnections, cause-and-effect relationships, and how physical changes in the atmosphere affect people and the environment. Indicators related to human health and societal impacts of climate change cut across chapter themes and are integrated throughout the report. Each theme includes information on why the changes matter, as well as examples and discussion of the unequal effects of climate change. The authors also provide examples of what people and communities can do to address climate change, and what actions are already underway.
Hurricane-force Winds and Heavy precipitation in Hurricane Beryl mostly strengthened by human driven climate change, Faranda et al., ClimaMeter
Cyclones near Jamaica similar to Hurricane Beryl are up to 30 mm/day (up to 30%) wetter and up to 9 km/h (up to 10%) windier in the present than they have been in the past. Hurricane Beryl was a largely unique event. Natural climate variability likely played a role in driving the pressure pattern and the associated increase in precipitation and wind speed linked to Hurricane Beryl.
Climate in the Crosshairs. The planetary impact of NATO’s spending increases, The Transnational Institute
NATO’s overall military spending in 2023 of $1.34 trillion produces an estimated 233 million metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e). This is more than Colombia's or Qatar’s annual GHG emissions. NATO’s military spending increase of $126 billion in 2023 will lead to an estimated additional 31 million metric tonnes of CO2 equivalent (tCO2e). This is equivalent to the annual CO2 emissions of around 6.7 million average US cars. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says that a 43% reduction in emissions is needed by all sectors by 2030 compared to 2019 levels to have a chance to keep global average temperature increases below 1.5 degrees Celsius. This would require an annual reduction of military emissions of at least 5%, yet, NATO increased its military emissions by around 15% in 2023 and looks set to continue increasing emissions this decade.
The authors present the fossil fuel holdings of over 7,500 pension funds, insurance companies, asset managers, hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, endowment funds, and asset management arms of commercial banks. In May 2024, these institutional investors held $4.3 trillion in bonds and shares of fossil fuel companies. For the second year in a row, Vanguard holds the sad record as the world’s biggest fossil fuel investor. The US asset management company holds and manages assets of coal, oil, and gas companies worth $413 billion. Due to its sheer volume and because it does not have any fossil fuel policy, Vanguard is the number one in fossil fuel investments worldwide. BlackRock, the world’s biggest asset management company, holds rank number 2. Its' fossil fuels assets add up to $400 billion. Fossil fuel investors number 3 and 4 are State Street, which holds $171 billion, closely followed by Capital Group, which holds $165 billion. Collectively these four US asset managers hold and manage assets in fossil fuel companies worth $1.1 trillion.
Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions
We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light" but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance.
- Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.
- Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
- The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway.
How is New Research assembled?
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.
The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
- Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically.
- Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.
A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."
The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.
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