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tmac57 at 05:02 AM on 12 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
This article made me think of something that I had read on Wikipedia about the famous 'Monty Hall Problem' that gained much attention after being posed in Parade Magazine in Marilyn vos Savant's column. From Wiki:In her book The Power of Logical Thinking, vos Savant (1996:15) quotes cognitive psychologist Massimo Piattelli-Palmarini as saying "... no other statistical puzzle comes so close to fooling all the people all the time" and "that even Nobel physicists systematically give the wrong answer, and that they insist on it, and they are ready to berate in print those who propose the right answer."
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Tom Curtis at 04:49 AM on 12 July 2012Christy Exaggerates the Model-Data Discrepancy
angusmac @23, if you are not suggesting that you agree with those other criticisms, your comment is an irrelevant smoke screen. -
Tom Curtis at 04:46 AM on 12 July 2012Christy Exaggerates the Model-Data Discrepancy
Angusmac @22, quoting my discussion of the 2 sigma range of Hansen 88 as evidence that observations are skirting the lower bound of the 2 sigma range of CMIP-3 (AR4) model predictions is disingenuous. Hansen 88 had a lower 2 sigma range, primarily because it did not include major forms of natural variability, in particular ENSO events and random (in time) volcanic eruptions. Therefore, that actual temperatures are skirting the bottom of the 2-sigma range for Scenario B from Hansen 88 implies nothing about their behaviour with respect to the AR4 models. The loose way in which you treat facts if they can be distorted to appear to support your position is very disturbing. -
realscience at 04:41 AM on 12 July 2012Medieval Warm Period was warmer
Danial and DSL, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0012821X12000659 http://www.whoi.edu/main/news-releases/2009?tid=3622&cid=59106 http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1589.html 3 very geographically diverse sets of data, constructed with good scientific methodolgy that should make anyone take pause and think that mann might be wrong. If the south pacific SST, antarctic, and N Scandinavia show the MWP, perhaps it is the global phenomenon that was theorzed before 1998, and not simply some localized events. That should make anyone skeptical about the mann2009 temperature Reconstruction. Do you have information why these papers should not be given strong weight? -
vrooomie at 04:28 AM on 12 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
I think an important point, in this discussion of what the temp of an airless Earth would be, is that on neither side would there be conditions under which present-day life would exist. Dr. Giaever asks the standard deniers' canard, "What is the optimal temperature of the planet?", as if that has never been investigated...and it has, and it's well-known. Roger D@34: your points are well-made, and dead-on, IMHO. For what it's worth, I've gotten *really* good at quickly identifying which conversation with any given denier/skeptic is going to be worth my time, by paying close attention to how they respond to established scientific research: I'm not old, by any means, but 55 is old enough to recognize how much of my remaining time should be spent yelling into the void...>;-/ -
vrooomie at 04:19 AM on 12 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
Thanks, DB: I missed the black body data of earth when I looked first.Moderator Response: [DB] Anytime, glad to help. -
Roger D at 04:04 AM on 12 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
Daniel J. Andrews: You wrote @28: “it seems to me that the energy accumulating here on earth is negligible”. I have to say that this statement could be used as a handy but misleading sound bite along the lines of one that Giaever made when he publicized his APS resignation: He said something like “temperatures have been remarkably stable”, indicating there was no concern regarding earth’s energy accumulation because after all, average global surface temp is only less than a degree Celsius different than it was a hundred years ago. OK, the rate of accumulation may be subjectively “negligible” in comparison to the output of the sun, or to an extraterrestrial studying the energy distribution of our solar system, but it is far from “negligible” with respect to the climates that a significant fraction of life forms on earth will have to put up with. -
Roger D at 04:04 AM on 12 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
I have a "skeptical" acquaintance that occasionally emails news articles me. He sent one when Giaever resigned his membership in the APS over their statement on AGW. I contemplated a response along the lines of "well, that's his prerogative but from everything I can tell regarding his reasons, it seems he doesn't really understand the scientific case in favor of AGW and therefore APS's acceptance of the case” – but in the end I just sighed to myself and never responded knowing from experience the attention span for meaningful drill-down into the heart of Giaever’s criticism was unlikely. I am convinced that most “skeptics” in the general public simply just aren’t that interested in the science. A handy but shallow sound-bite will do just fine, thank you. Basically, I think that much (most ?) of the public believe that when a “really smart noble prize-winning scientist” says he doesn’t believe AGW is a problem, then that in and of itself counts as valid counter-evidence against the science. …” I suppose we all use simplifications but in my experience listening to “skeptical” friends and acquaintances, there is little or nothing below the surface. If say to Frank “OK Frank, I agree, water does account for the largest part of greenhouse effect, please continue and tell why human generated GHGs are not important with respect to climate change”, I almost always get another sound-bite. So Dana, thanks for the post. I will politely bring it to my “skeptic” friends’ attention. -
Daniel Bailey at 03:53 AM on 12 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
Vroomie, the blackbody temperature of the Earth without atmosphere is essentially the same as that of the Earth with an atmosphere lacking in noncondensible greenhouse gases (assuming both are at thermal equilibrium). In addition to the Science of Doom resources I referred you to earlier, please see: 1. NASA Earth Fact Sheet 2. Atmospheric CO2: Principal Control Knob Governing Earth’s Temperature (Lacis et al 2010) 3. Attribution of the present‐day total greenhouse effect (Schmidt et al 2010) Not that it should matter, but I asked Dr. Mann for clarification on this and he indicated the above to be an appropriate response to this situation. -
DSL at 03:30 AM on 12 July 2012Medieval Warm Period was warmer
Esper et al. (2012) is getting serious play out in the trenches -- and being seriously misread. It's a strawman party: http://newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2012/07/11/new-study-thoroughly-debunks-global-warming-will-media-notice -
vrooomie at 03:28 AM on 12 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
Woops..sorry: I forgot to add to my prior post that I used the moon data because we're essentially in the same orbit as the Moon; there'd be some difference in albedo, but I couldn't find that data. Always learning! -
vrooomie at 03:27 AM on 12 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
I'll not pursue this much farther, in order to not stray too far off-topic but I believe an airless Earth would be MUCH hotter than 255K on the hot side. Source The bottom line that DOES relate is, Dr. Giaever's presentation was poor, at best, and deeply embarrassing, at worst. My point about having to battle "fake experts who happen to have a Nobel prize in some utterly unrelated field" stands....:( -
Composer99 at 03:03 AM on 12 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
Personally speaking, Dr Giaever's admission that his stance on global warming is the result of a few hours' work on Google makes me very embarrased for him. It puts him in such august company as anti-vaccine activist and not-quite-celebrity Jenny McCarthy, who credits "The University of Google" for her understanding of vaccinology and the aetiology of autism spectrum disorders. If your understanding of some subset of science ends up being functionally equivalent to Jenny McCarthy's, then "Google U" is not your friend. -
Daniel J. Andrews at 03:03 AM on 12 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
I knew you meant 'antidote,' but I think 'antidope' is *way* funnier....;)
Agreed! Very much funnier. I'm going to incorporate "antidope" into my vocabulary now. -
Daniel Bailey at 02:42 AM on 12 July 2012Medieval Warm Period was warmer
"It seems there is strong evidence that the MWP was glogal, not a local event" This is exceptionally vague (the word seems is the dead giveaway); you'll need to provide a link to substantiate what is effectively your personal opinion. While I'm pretty sure of both the source of your opinion, the blog you read it on and why both of you are wrong, the onus (i.e., homework) is on you to provide it for sensible discussion to ensue. And no, Virginia, regional studies doth not global make. Regardless of spelling. (BTW, a warmer MCA implies a greater climate sensitivity than is commonly accepted...do you understand the ramifications of that greater sensitivity?) -
Daniel J. Andrews at 02:38 AM on 12 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
In addition to this rapid surface warming, the global oceans have also been accumulating heat at an incredible rate - the equivalent of more than two Hiroshima "Little Boy" atomic bomb detonations per second, every second over a the past half century.
Yes, but the sun produces the equivalent of 10^11 bombs going off every second, so if true, it seems to me that the energy accumulating here on earth is negligible. Just the part where he uses Kelvin to make his point is rather a boggling display of something not complimentary ( [-Snip-]). The lower parts of that scale aren't conducive to life, and don't occur here on earth anyway. On the other hand, that is an argument I hadn't yet seen so kudos for creativity?Moderator Response: [DB] Speculations on motive/character snipped. -
Daniel Bailey at 02:37 AM on 12 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
Vroomie, IIRC, the temperature difference between the Earth as a black body at thermal equilibrium with no atmosphere and the Earth at thermal equilibrium with no non-condensing greenhouse gases is indeed negligible. Again, this is non-intuitive, so I refer you to the awesomeness that is the Science of Doom (listing of pertinent pages here with this page here being a good starting point. Additionally, relevant pages can be found at Skeptical Science here and in this paper by Ramanathan. -
JohnMashey at 02:36 AM on 12 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
See Reasons. Clearly: TEC5 (going emeritus in the bad way). Likely: PSYa (Austin, Happer, Singer), maybe IDE2/POL2. It is truly embarrassing when someone who once did good work goes like this. In the APS Petition list, Syun-Ichi Akasofu (retired eminent aurora researcher) is another sad case like that, although many of the signers haven't had particularly notable careers, and almsoet none ahve done credible (or any) climate research. -
Tristan at 02:18 AM on 12 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
BC, from the abstract: Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers. -
Kevin C at 02:13 AM on 12 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
vroomie, CBDunkerson: The difference between a (presumably rotating) planet with an IR-transparent atmosphere and no atmosphere is more than I can do in my head! I think this is the place to start, but I don't have time to dig through the issues. -
Tristan at 02:02 AM on 12 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
Interestingly, I quoted the same Giaever passage when rebutting his speech on a contrarian site as evidence of his opinion's irrelevance. -
CBDunkerson at 02:00 AM on 12 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
vroomie, without an atmosphere the side of the Earth not facing the Sun would be much colder than 254K... but the side which WAS facing it would be much warmer. The average global temperature would indeed be 254K. Also, an atmosphere without greenhouse gases would likely actually be COLDER than no atmosphere at all... because the atmosphere would block some of the incoming radiation. Earth's current atmosphere retains more heat through greenhouse warming than it blocks as incoming radiation, but both effects exist. -
realscience at 01:54 AM on 12 July 2012Medieval Warm Period was warmer
It seems there is strong evidence that the MWP was glogal, not a local event. We do have the wood's hole reconstruction of SST in 2009, that has similar temperatures. Esper in N. Scandanavia Mxd and TRW supports consistant higher temperatures. The new proxies seem to indicate that past temperatures may well have been above current temperatures. The margin for error is higher than Mann 2009 seemed to indicate, and this had much higher temperatures in MWP than mann 1999. Both of these newer proxies indicate the climate models that say today's temperatures are the highest they have been in 1400 years need to be reexamined. This does not mean ghg are not contributing to current warming, but does mean that natural variability is higher than current reconstructions seem to indicate. -
vrooomie at 01:26 AM on 12 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
Piet, I believe English may be your second language (nothing wrong with that) but given your use of the word "antidope" in referencing the really good works of Molina and Crutzen, I had to laugh out loud at its accuracy..that's my takeaway of the day...thanks! I knew you meant 'antidote,' but I think 'antidope' is *way* funnier....;) -
vrooomie at 01:24 AM on 12 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
Correct, Kevin@14: without *GHGs,* indeed Giaever is about right, but as DB said, Giaever stated "without an atmosphere." That's a glaring example of not much thought being put into a statement, by someome ostensibly thoughtful. W/o an atmosphere, Earth would be WAY colder than 254K! Words--and grammar-- matter...;) In any case, it's somewhat embarrassing to watch an otherwise intelligent person get it so notably incorrect. -
shoyemore at 01:17 AM on 12 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
I found Giaever's presentation uncomfortable and embarrassing in the extreme. So much so I had to turn it off. It is an object lesson for any Emeritius to stick to what he knows best, and not go shooting his mouth off. It was dreadful to see a once-respected scientist make an ass of himself. But no doubt there are those who will pander to his vanity, and seek to gain from the confusion spread. -
Piet R. Zijlstra at 01:08 AM on 12 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
After listening to Mr. Giaever I used as antidope the presentations of Mr. Crutzen and Molina. Together with the above rebuttal of Dana I do feel good again! During the speech of Giaever the public reacted on the humor, they laughed. I really wonder why nobody of the audience stood up and told Mr Grieaver to stop his non-scientifical talk. IMO it was not even pseudoscience. -
JohnMashey at 01:01 AM on 12 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
re: physicists I know a few Nobel physicists and they are quite sensible. In the APS Petition writeup mentioned in #6, {Austin, Happer, Singer, Lewis, Gould, Cohen}, with much campaigning,m managed to get ~200 signers out of ~47,000 aps members, I.E., <0.5%. Id' guess that's lower than most segments. The demographics were very skewed older, slightly skewed male, and somewhat skewed politically conservative. -
dana1981 at 00:58 AM on 12 July 2012Carbon - the Huge and Yet Overlooked Fossil Fuel Subsidy
Alexandre - I'm pretty sure grey means no data available. As noted, it's difficult to determine exactly what qualifies as a subsidy, and to obtain that information from every country. The IEA wasn't even able to estimate it for most of the green countries in Figure 1. -
dana1981 at 00:56 AM on 12 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
John @7 - as someone with a physics background myself, I prefer not to speak ill of physicists! At the same time, I've seen the Giaever xkcd behavior first hand quite a few times. Physicists tend to think pretty darn highly of their intellects, usually for good reason, but it can lead them into Giaever behavior :-) -
Daniel Bailey at 00:43 AM on 12 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
Kevin, what probably threw vroomie was the bit about "Without an atmosphere". IIRC, we know from Lacis & Schmidt that without the non-condensing GHG's Earth's temperature would plunge some 35ºK to it's effective black body temperature, 254ºK. The problem is that this is not necessarily intuitive as being the same as atmosphere-free. -
Alexandre at 00:41 AM on 12 July 2012Carbon - the Huge and Yet Overlooked Fossil Fuel Subsidy
I don't know what the grey color stands for in figure 1. Is it "no data available" or "no subsidies"? I do know that Brazil has subsidies at least for diesel and LP gas, although I don't have the numbers. -
Kevin C at 00:31 AM on 12 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
vrooomie: Never trust your intuition. The roughly 35C colder figure is one of the few things in Giaever's talk which is accurate. See for example IPCC AR4. (But you were pretty unlucky with the claim you picked. The odds of picking one that was right were pretty low.) -
vrooomie at 23:28 PM on 11 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
Just finished watching the video by Dr. Giaever: oh my gosh... He states that "Without an atmosphere, the Earth would be *roughly* 35C colder." Whaaaa? I'm just a geologist but I'm *fairly* certain it would roughly be a LOT colder than that! The amount of uter falsehoods, incorrect assumptions, and misconstrued "facts" in this are, to me, as embarrassing as any of Christopher Monckton's prounouncements. This is indeed one of the myriad reasons I find it so difficult to discuss the science with fake skeptics, when *notable* fake skeptics such Dr. Giaever step into it this deeply. Sigh...... -
BC at 23:26 PM on 11 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
Fig 3 shows that about 800 climate scientists are convinced by the evidence of human caused climate change and around 90 are unconvinced. The percentage of unconvinced here, approx 11%, is higher than the 2%-3% figure from other surveys, which is a worry to me. If you take out the least experienced first pair of figures it gets closer to the 3%. I've sometimes wondered how many climate scientists there are and this implies a bit less than 1000, based on papers published. I'm impressed that someone has published around 900 papers. There's also someone who's published 650 papers who is unconvinced by the evidence! I wonder who these two scientists are. -
Dikran Marsupial at 23:06 PM on 11 July 2012Murry Salby's Correlation Conundrum
Tom Curtis I don't follow your argument here, please could you explain it in a bit more detail. I can't see how the conclusion of the mass balance argument (that the natural environment is a net carbon sink) can possibly be false if the assumptions (conservation of mass and the relatively low uncertainty in the observations) are true. Can you provide equations for Ea, En, Un and C', such that conservation of mass is observed and where Un < En while at the same time C' < Ea. As far as I can see, this is a mathematical imposibility. -
vrooomie at 22:56 PM on 11 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
curiousd@9: Similar situation for me. Scientist A (let's call him "booomie"), who is a GEOlogist, works with numerous and well-respected GEOphysicists. "Booome' spends about 5 years doing intensive research into a whole host of resources that are concerned with AGW, including becoming a friend toa noted researcher at NASA-Goddard. "Booomie's" discovery of "Sepical Skience" is his next big step, in doing research on the topic of AGW, which sends him even deeper into scholastic sources that support the AGW theory. "Booomie" reads over 1000 papers on the topic and is pretty-well convinced, by the data and interpretation thereof, that AGW is ~anything~ but a "hoax," a "crock," or "bad science." "Booomie" then has the *temerity* to put forth the AGW theory to a few of the Ph.D. GEOphysicists and is agog (I think J. Cook would say "gobsmacked!) when aforementioned GEOphysicists assert, loudly and with *great* authority, that AGW is essentially a crock. "Booomie" is left scratching his head and doing *much* more research on "confirmation bias"......;) -
Composer99 at 22:34 PM on 11 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
I don't know whether Nobel-winnng scientists are more likely than others to go off the rails when speculating on fields outside those they have specialized in (although they may well be, bolstered by the status conferred by the prize). However, they certainly get more publicity (one thinks here of Luc Montaigner), and the Nobel adds unwarranted credibility to their claims, even if the evidence shows their speculations are incorrect. -
Dikran Marsupial at 21:42 PM on 11 July 2012Christy Exaggerates the Model-Data Discrepancy
@angusmac wrote The main point of my post @12 was to query the use of Figure 2, which is lifted directly from RC." This is essentially an ad-hominem, questioning the source of some information rather than the content. Why not get it from RC, from an article written by a climate modeller, who is an expert in the area and knows how to properly determine if there is a model-observation discrepancy. Would it make any difference if we used the version of the diagram that I created from the same model runs? "I asked why not use Figure TS.26 from AR4?" because TS.26 provides only a very brief summary of what the CMIP3 models actually say, and does not provide the required information to determine whethere there actually is a model-observation discrepancy (the answer is "no, not really"). -
Dikran Marsupial at 21:32 PM on 11 July 2012Christy Exaggerates the Model-Data Discrepancy
@angusmac writes "Figure 2 hides the 2-sigma trend in real-world temperatures in a mass of grey, whereas the TS.26 shows this discrepancy very clearly. " The mass of grey in figure 2 is the 2-sigma region, I cannot see how much more clearly it could be depicted than that. This one comment suggests quite strongly to me that you have misunderstood what figure 2 is actually saying. "Figure 2 does not show smoothed data. Once again this tends to hide the discrepancy between real-world temperatures and model projections". No, if you want to determine if there is a model-observation discrepancy you need to look at the data itself. Smoothing hides the true variability of the data, and to detect a discrepancy you need an accurate characterisation of the variability. The observations are currently between the 1-sigma and 2-sigma boiundaries (actually more or less half way). Is this surprising or unusual? No, the observations can be expected to be in that region about 1/3 of the time, even if the models are perfectly correct (so your 1 out of 10 characterisation is rather off). Note that in 1998 the observations were skirting the other side of the 2-sigma region even more closely. Does that mean that in 1998 ecomentalists would have a point in saying that the models underestimate warming? No. An important factor that is often missed is that there is a one in 20 chance of seeing an observation outside the 2-sigma range if you look at a random sample from the distribution. However if you wait for an observation that supports your argument (as the "skeptics" often do), then the chance of such an observation ocurring by random chance increases quite rapidly the longer you wait, until it reaches the point where it is essentially inevitable. This is why statistics has the concept of "multiple hypothesis testing" to compensate for this bias (c.f. the Bonferonni adjustment). While the observations are nearish the 2-sigma region, that doesn't mean that this is statistically surprising in any way. If you want to find out just how unsurprising it would be, then here is an experiment to try. Run a model aith A1B forcings and generate, say, 100 model runs. For each run in turn, treat it as the observations and the rest as the ensemble projection. From the start of the run, count how many years you have to wait to find a model-observation discrepancy as large as the one we see at the moment. Generate a histogram. Compare with the number of years the skeptics have has to wait since the CMIP3 models were completed. I suspect you will find that the probability of having ssen such a discrepancy by now is substantially higher than 1 in 20. I'll try and dig out the data when I have a moment. -
angusmac at 21:15 PM on 11 July 2012Christy Exaggerates the Model-Data Discrepancy
Albatross @16 There is little need for me to criticise Christy, plenty of people on this website are well able to do that. The main point of my post @12 was to query the use of Figure 2, which is lifted directly from RC. I asked why not use Figure TS.26 from AR4? I also explained why TS.26 is better @12 and subsequently @22. -
michael sweet at 20:42 PM on 11 July 2012Carbon - the Huge and Yet Overlooked Fossil Fuel Subsidy
This study does not count the health costs from pollution near fossil fuel sources or the damage from acid rain. I can only eat fish I catch in the pond in my backyard twice a month because they are contaminated with mercury from fossil fuels. Fossil fuels contain many problems beyond the CO2. -
angusmac at 20:23 PM on 11 July 2012Christy Exaggerates the Model-Data Discrepancy
Dikran Maraupial @14 Regarding your, "I would be happy to answer any questions about Figure 2." That's very kind of you and I would be pleased if you would answer one, which is more of a request than a question. Posting the data for your version of Figure 2 on the SkS resource library would be very useful. I have not found the data retrieval process as straightforward as you suggest. Having the numerical data in an easily accessible form (Excel or csv) would allow easy cross-checking for errors, etc. Regarding, "... if you feel that the AR4 diagram tells a different story...", you suggest that I have missed some subtlety and that I start by checking the error bars. Please note that AR4 Figure TS.26 and my version of it in Figure 1 clearly show the error bars. Furthermore, I agree with the comments presented by Tom Curtis @72 and you @73 here that the real-world temperatures are currently skirting the 2-sigma levels in the models. I also concur that Figures 2 and TS.26 both tell the same overall story, namely, real-world temperatures are following the 2-sigma levels from the model ensemble. It is just that TS.26 presents this fact more clearly. My main contentions regarding Figure 2 are as follows:- Figure 2 hides the 2-sigma trend in real-world temperatures in a mass of grey, whereas the TS.26 shows this discrepancy very clearly.
- Figure 2 does not show smoothed data. Once again this tends to hide the discrepancy between real-world temperatures and model projections.
- Figure 2 omits the Commitment Scenario that is presented in TS.26. This scenario should be shown in any projections diagram because it is a very useful benchmark for comparing the accuracy of the projections.
-
curiousd at 18:16 PM on 11 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
Since ad hominum is out, the following will have to be couched in personal recollection. True tale, though: Scientist X receives Nobel in field A. Scientist X retires, essentially, but in an interview with national magazine is asked if he wishes to comment on science in general. X replies, essentially, thus: I do not believe that HIV causes AIDS. (comment related to field B). X Is asked "Why" by interviewer. Response, essentially, is this: Might as well, if you happen to be proven right for a claim that far outside the consensus, you will be famous. No one becomes famous for believing what everyone else does. This twisted kind of reasoning is behind a lot of this, IMO. -
Lars Rosenberg at 17:13 PM on 11 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
Ivar Giaever spent most of his working life at General Electric. In later years he has held a professorship at Oslo University, payed for by StatOil. He seems to belong to Fred Singers vast social network. Giaever wrote a short opinion piece in Aftenposten a few years ago, telling his fellow norwegians that global warming stopped in 1998. The only authority mentioned was Fred Singer. When Giaever resigned by from the APS last september he sent a copy of the e-mail to Fred Singer, who published it at his website. Curiously, he also copied the letter to Hal Lewis, who died half a year earlier. -
Rob Painting at 17:11 PM on 11 July 2012Climate change is simple: We do something or we’re screwed
Clyde @ 57 - Only in a warming climate does the probability of record-breaking warm extremes increase. In a stationary climate, i.e no long-term warming or cooling, the probability of record breaking actually decreases with time. That you seem hung up on the false notion that extreme heatwaves always happen simply underscores that you do not understand this concept. And it is obvious you have not bothered to read the SkS pages you were referred to. Repeating debunked information, as you have, is deemed to be "sloganeering." Genuine discussion is encouraged, but sloganeering is unwelcome and contravenes the comments policy. I suggest you familiarise yourself with it before commenting further. Learning requires a willing participant. -
John Cook at 17:03 PM on 11 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
Okay, great article, Dana and yes, Giaever's arguments are very weak. But physicists are actually nice people, really! You can't stereotype an entire community based on a few extreme examples! :-) -
skywatcher at 16:56 PM on 11 July 2012Climate change is simple: We do something or we’re screwed
One of Clyde's parting shots classically illustrates the problem here:"We have always had extreme weather events. We will continue to have them."
It illustrates a fundamental disconnect here, and Clyde is not the first to have this disconnect. There's a complete refusal to contemplate the observation that extreme events are truly on the rise, even when it is pointed out directly. Clyde was pointed at #30 to a paper and shown a figure that actually showed the weakness of his above statement, specifically that heatwaves are increasing in frequency and intensity across the globe. Yet Clyde showed no sign of acknowledging the existence of such data that shows that extreme heat events have been observed to increase in our warming world. And there's evidently a failure to see the difference between the increased likelihood of certain extremes happening, and the impossible task of precisely attributing to AGW the formation of an individual high-pressure cell which leads to a climate extreme, repeated in his final comments. These are very different things. It's chaotic weather that throws the punches. How hard those punches are is determined by the state of the climate. A warmer climate will generally drive more intense 'heat' punches, 'drier' punches, and more intense 'wet' punches. And that wet stuff in winter can mean more intense 'snowy' punches. There are fewer 'cold' punches, as recorded in low temperatures. Where and when those punches fall is driven by the weather, but you cannot ignore the climate influence. If you do, you might make the mistake of thinking you're going into the ring with Mr Bean, but actually find it's Mohammed Ali that's in the other corner! The best analogy there is the smokers and lung cancer connection. Smoking brings a clear increased likelihood of cancer, but attributing each individual cancer growth ('weather') to tobacco smoke is very difficult indeed. Does Clyde think there's little or no connection between smoking and cancer? I doubt it. I suspect we'll see plenty more people who appear to have a strong desire not to want to see the increasingly obvious impact of a warming climate and intensifying hydrological cycle. How long will the disconnect remain? Until the next 3-sigma event comes knocking on their door? Will it be (in America) when every last Dust Bowl record has tumbled, even the ones that remain after a load were tumbled by the recent US heatwave? Do we have to wait, like a bunch of boiling frogs, for the next round of even greater/more frequent extremes? -
JohnMashey at 16:36 PM on 11 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
See a talk by Nobel particle physicist Burt Richter, who "retired" from running SLAC, and then spent a lot of time learning about climate. He already knew a bit about energy. His climate slides could have been used by Al Gore. Burt ran the American Physical Society project on energy efficiency, has a decent book out, and continues to be involved in useful projects. Giaever was one of the signers of the 2009 APS Petition. He was in wave B, i.e., likely recruited directly by the organizers. I cannot know, but if I had to guess, Happer or Austin. Giaever has since resigned from the APS. -
kwinters79 at 15:52 PM on 11 July 2012Ivar Giaever - Nobel Winning Physicist and Climate Pseudoscientist
Wow, that's simply amazing. His slide showing the temperature change in Kelvin must have been tongue-in-cheek. No real physicist would be so ridiculously arbitrary in the selection of units. Using a different temperature scale (Réaumur for example) one can get that the temperature increased from ~12.0 °R to 12.64 °R (5.3%). That is amazingly rapid warming!!!
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