Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #43 2024
Posted on 24 October 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
The rate of global sea level rise doubled during the past three decades, Hamlington et al., Communications Earth & Environment:
The rise in globally averaged sea level—or global mean sea level—is one of the most unambiguous indicators of climate change. Over the past three decades, satellites have provided continuous, accurate measurements of sea level on near-global scales. Here, we show that since satellites began observing sea surface heights in 1993 until the end of 2023, global mean sea level has risen by 111 mm. In addition, the rate of global mean sea level rise over those three decades has increased from ~2.1 mm/year in 1993 to ~4.5 mm/year in 2023. If this trajectory of sea level rise continues over the next three decades, sea levels will increase by an additional 169 mm globally, comparable to mid-range sea level projections from the IPCC AR6.
Climate emotions, thoughts, and plans among US adolescents and young adults: a cross-sectional descriptive survey and analysis by political party identification and self-reported exposure to severe weather events, Lewandowski et al., The Lancet Planetary Health:
We evaluated survey responses from 15 793 individuals (weighted proportions: 80·5% aged 18–25 years and 19·5% aged 16–17 years; 48·8% female and 51·2% male). Overall, 85·0% of respondents endorsed being at least moderately worried, and 57·9% very or extremely worried, about climate change and its impacts on people and the planet. 42·8% indicated an impact of climate change on self-reported mental health, and 38·3% indicated that their feelings about climate change negatively affect their daily life. Respondents reported negative thoughts about the future due to climate change and actions planned in response, including being likely to vote for political candidates who support aggressive climate policy (72·8%). In regression models, self-reported exposure to more types of severe weather events was significantly associated with stronger endorsement of climate-related distress and desire and plans for action. Political party identification as Democrat or as Independent or Other (vs Republican) was also significantly associated with stronger endorsement of distress and desire and plans for action, although a majority of self-identified Republicans reported at least moderate distress.
Coordinating the energy transition: Electrifying transportation in California and Germany, Goedeking & Meckling, Energy Policy:
California and Germany share ambitious emission reduction targets. Yet California is ahead of Germany in electrifying transportation by several metrics, including the number of public charging stations. We show that variation in the politics of coordination in California and Germany explains the different outcomes. Transforming energy systems requires coordination across various complementary technologies and infrastructures—here between the supply of electric vehicles and the buildout of charging stations. In California, a strong electrification coalition emerged across automakers selling electric vehicles as well as utilities and third-party firms providing charging infrastructure. Power market rules made capital investments for charging infrastructure instantly profitable for California monopoly utilities. By contrast, in Germany's liberalized power market, investing in capital-intensive charging infrastructure was not profitable for electric utilities. As a result, utilities did not emerge as a political force in the electrification coalition. Instead, utilities and automakers were in gridlock, failing to coordinate electric vehicle rollout and public charging station buildout. Our findings highlight the limits of business-led coordination, raising the question which institutions help address coordination failures in clean energy transitions.
Over-reliance on land for carbon dioxide removal in net-zero climate pledges, Dooley et al., Nature Communications:
Achieving net-zero climate targets requires some level of carbon dioxide removal. Current assessments focus on tonnes of CO2 removed, without specifying what form these removals will take. Here, we show that countries’ climate pledges require approximately 1 (0.9–1.1) billion ha of land for removals. For over 40% of this area, the pledges envisage the conversion of existing land uses to forests, while the remaining area restores existing ecosystems and land uses. We analyse how this demand for land is distributed geographically and over time. The results are concerning, both in terms of the aggregate area of land, but also the rate and extent of land use change. Our findings demonstrate a gap between governments’ expected reliance on land and the role that land can realistically play in climate mitigation. This adds another layer to the observed shortcomings of national climate pledges and indicates a need for more transparency around the role of land in national climate mitigation plans.
Wildfire Emissions Offset More Permafrost Ecosystem Carbon Sink in the 21st Century, Zhu et al., Earth's Future:
Permafrost ecosystems in high-latitudes stock a large amount of carbon and are vulnerable to wildfires under climate warming. However, major knowledge gap remains in the effects of direct carbon loss from increasing wildfire biomass burning on permafrost ecosystem carbon sink. In this study, we used observation-derived data sets and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations to investigate how carbon emissions from wildfire biomass burning offset permafrost ecosystem carbon sink under climate warming in the 21st century. We show that the fraction of permafrost ecosystem carbon sink offset by wildfire emissions was 14%–25% during the past two decades. The fraction is projected to be 28%–45% at the end of this century under different warming scenarios. The weakening carbon sink is caused by greater increase in wildfire emissions than net ecosystem production in permafrost regions under climate warming. The increased fraction of ecosystem carbon sink offset by wildfire carbon loss is especially pronounced in continuous permafrost region during the past two decades.
Feedbacks From Young Permafrost Carbon Remobilization to the Deglacial Methane Rise, Sabino et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles:
Here, we investigate the large-scale permafrost remobilization at the Younger Dryas-Preboreal transition (ca. 11.6 ka BP) using the sedimentary record deposited at the Lena River paleo-outlet (Arctic Ocean) to reflect permafrost destabilization in this vast drainage basin. Terrestrial OC was isolated from sediments and characterized geochemically measuring δ13C, Δ14C, and lignin phenol molecular fossils. Results indicate massive remobilization of relatively young (about 2,600 years) permafrost OC from inland Siberia after abrupt warming triggered severe active layer deepening. Methane emissions from this young fraction of permafrost OC contributed to the deglacial CH4 rise. This study stresses that underestimating permafrost complexities may affect our comprehension of the deglacial permafrost OC-climate feedback and helps understand how modern permafrost systems may react to rapid warming events, including enhanced CH4 emissions that would amplify anthropogenic climate change.
From this week's government/NGO section:
Ukraine’s Energy and Climate Challenges, Special Editors, Susanne Nies and Olha Bondarenko, Ukraine Analytical Journal
This issue of the Ukraine Analytical Journal is devoted to Ukraine’s energy and climate challenges. How can the country deal with the paramount heat and power deficit expected for the coming winter? What solutions are at hand? And how can these short-term solutions be consistent with the needs of a more mid- and long-term clean energy transition?
Impact of Climate Change on Health and Drug Demand, Abir et al., RAND
The authors of this report estimated how the anticipated effects of climate change on the prevalence of a sample of four chronic conditions — cardiovascular disease (CVD), asthma, end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and Alzheimer's disease — will affect demand for the drugs needed to treat them (metoprolol, albuterol, heparin, and donepezil, respectively). To generate these estimates, the authors conducted an environmental scan of the peer-reviewed and gray literature and developed a medical condition–specific systems dynamics model. The model can help inform policies for ensuring drug supply under various climate scenarios.
Climate Change & Crime, Peter Schwartzstein, The Center for Climate and Security
Crime has received relatively little attention to date in the climate security literature. This brief paper is an attempt to begin redressing that shortfall. While crime, as a form of insecurity, might seem low stakes in comparison to terrorism and inter-state conflict, its sheer breadth ensures that many more people have likely suffered from it compared with more ‘macro’ forms of climate-related violence. From petty theft to not-so-petty assaults, climate change is leaving its mark on almost every category of crime.
122 articles in 57 journals by 816 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
A Dynamical Adjustment Approach to Estimating Forced and Internal Variability in the North Atlantic, Nedza & DelSole, Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0651.1
A Dynamical Interpretation of the Intensification of the Winter North Atlantic Jet Stream in Reanalysis, Hermoso et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0757.1
Adjustments to Climate Perturbations—Mechanisms, Implications, Observational Constraints, Quaas et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2023av001144
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Response to Increased Southern Ocean Wind Stress in a Climate Model with an Eddy-Rich Ocean, Schulzki et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0727.1
Diminishing control of evaporation on rising land surface temperature of the Earth, Szilagyi et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01796-8
Response of the upper ocean to northeast Pacific atmospheric rivers under climate change, Shields et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01774-0
Unveiling the Relationship Between Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclones and Rising Sea Surface Temperature, Avolio et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109921
Vapor-Buoyancy Feedback in an Idealized GCM, Seidel & Yang, Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0558.1
Observations of climate change, effects
A Global Analysis of Historical and Future Changes in Mediterranean Climate-Type Regions, Urdiales?Flores et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8655
A robust stepwise jump in the Arctic wintertime warming in 2005 coherent with the increased clear-sky downward longwave radiation flux, Latonin & Demchenko, Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2024.101503
Anthropogenic influence on precipitation in Aotearoa New Zealand with differing circulation types, Thomas et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100727
Direct and lagged climate change effects intensified the 2022 European drought, Bevacqua et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-024-01559-2
Global burned area increasingly explained by climate change, Burton et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02140-w
Global rise in forest fire emissions linked to climate change in the extratropics, Jones et al., Science 10.1126/science.adl5889
Increased Frequency of Consecutive Positive IOD Events Under Global Warming, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111182
Madden Julian Oscillation Moves Faster as the Meridional Moisture Gradient Intensifies in a Warming World, Dasgupta et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110461
The increasing influence of atmospheric moisture transport on hydrometeorological extremes in the Euromediterranean region with global warming, Gimeno-Sotelo et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01787-9
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Dheed: an ERA5 based global database of dry and hot extreme events from 1950 to 2022, Weynants et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2024-396
Diagnosing Atmospheric Heating Rate Changes Using Radiative Kernels, Huang & Huang Huang Huang, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd041594
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Assessing the influence of climate change on multiple climate indices in Nepal using CMIP6 global climate models, Bastola et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107720
Projected changes in mean climate and extremes from downscaled high-resolution CMIP6 simulations in Australia, Chapman et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100733
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
First results of the polar regional climate model RACMO2.4, van Dalum et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-895
Implications of a Pervasive Climate Model Bias for Low-Cloud Feedback, Ceppi et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110525
Selecting CMIP6 GCMs for CORDEX Dynamical Downscaling over Southeast Asia Using a Standardised Benchmarking Framework, Nguyen et al., Open Access 10.5194/gmd-2024-84
Cryosphere & climate change
Change in grounding line location on the Antarctic Peninsula measured using a tidal motion offset correlation method, Wallis et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2023-2874
Effect of surficial geology mapping scale on modelled ground ice in Canadian Shield terrain, O'Neill et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-68
Elevation Change of the Greenland Ice Sheet and its Peripheral Glaciers: 1992–2023, Nilsson & Gardner Gardner, Open Access 10.5194/essd-2024-311
Seasonal changes in black carbon footprint on the Antarctic Peninsula due to rising shipborne tourism and forest fires, Magalhães et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adp1682
Sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere Warming Trend to Snowpack Variability, Onuma et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0496.1
Sea level & climate change
The rate of global sea level rise doubled during the past three decades, Hamlington et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01761-5
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
A solution for constraining past marine Polar Amplification, Morley et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-53424-w
Expanded subsurface ocean anoxia in the Atlantic during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, Yao et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-53423-x
Feedbacks From Young Permafrost Carbon Remobilization to the Deglacial Methane Rise, Sabino et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2024gb008164
The temperature-precipitation duel and tropical greening during the Early Eocene Greenhouse episode, Samanta et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104603
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Changes in the radial growth patterns of two dominant tree species in north-central China under climate warming, Wang et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2024.126269
Combining tree-ring growth and carbon isotope data enhances the understanding of climate sensitivity and physiological responses for Chinese fir in a common garden, Wang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110246
Distinguishing the Impacts and Gradient Effects of Climate Change and Human Activities on Vegetation Cover in the Weihe River Basin, China, Lv et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2024jg008297
Editorial: The adaptation, plasticity and extinction of forest plants to climate change: mechanisms behind the morphological, physiological, phenological and ecological traits, Huang et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.3389/fevo.2024.1488465
Global exposure risk of frogs to increasing environmental dryness, Wu et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02167-z
Increasing temperature threatens post-fire auto-successional dynamics of a Mediterranean obligate seeder, Paneghel et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access 10.1111/1365-2745.14433
Interaction Between Climate Change Scenarios and Biological Invasion Reveals Complex Cascading Effects in Freshwater Ecosystems, Rodrigues et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17540
Land cover succession for recently drained lakes in permafrost on the Yamal Peninsula, Western Siberia, von Baeckmann et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-4703-2024
Long- and short-term responses to climate change in body and appendage size of diverse Australian birds, Ryding et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17517
Long-Term Stability of Marine Forests Facing Moderate Gradual Warming in a Remote Biodiversity Hotspot, Pessarrodona et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access 10.1111/ddi.13933
Observed increasing light-use efficiency of terrestrial gross primary productivity, Liu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110269
Oxygen loss compromises growth and cognition of cuttlefish newborns, Court et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 10.1098/rspb.2024.1291
Phytoplankton Response to the Record-Breaking Marine Heatwave in the Summer of 2020 in the South China Sea, Zheng et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2024jc021275
Prospects for Neotropical Forest Birds and Their Habitats Under Contrasting Emissions Scenarios, Brawn et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17544
Response of Root Respiration to Warming and Nitrogen Addition Depends on Tree Species, Muratore et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17530
Spatially Heterogeneous Responses of Planktonic Foraminiferal Assemblages Over 700,000 Years of Climate Change, Mathes et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography Open Access 10.1111/geb.13905
Thermal Tolerance and Species Distributions: Interactions Between Latitude, Elevation and Arboreality in Ants, Camara et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access 10.1111/ddi.13936
Warming could shift the phenological responses of benthic microalgae in temperate intertidal zones, Savelli et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-024-01764-2
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Analyzing methane emissions in five Indian cities using TROPOMI data from sentinel-5 precursor satellite, Suthar et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102174
Carbon sequestration and CO2 flux in six plant species in vertical greenery systems, Pan et al., Urban Ecosystems 10.1007/s11252-024-01620-3
Intensified greenhouse gas prediction: Configuring Gate with Fine-Tuning Shifts with Bi-LSTM and GRU System, Sha et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1457441
Nutrient Addition Enhances the Temperature Sensitivity of Soil Carbon Decomposition Across Forest Ecosystems, Chen et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17543
Simulating the land carbon sink: Progresses and challenges of terrestrial ecosystem models, Yuan et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110264
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
The control of karst rocky desertification has enhanced the carbon sequestration capacity of the ecosystem in southern China, Du et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104602
Wildfire Emissions Offset More Permafrost Ecosystem Carbon Sink in the 21st Century, Zhu et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005098
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
A global assessment of mangrove soil organic carbon sources and implications for blue carbon credit, Zhang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-53413-z
Applying minerals to soil to draw down atmospheric carbon dioxide through synergistic organic and inorganic pathways, Buss et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01771-3
Climate Benefits of Saltmarsh Restoration Greatly Overstated by Mason et al. (2023), Williamson et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17525
Distinct impacts of microplastics on the carbon sequestration capacity of coastal blue carbon ecosystems: A case of seagrass beds, Hou et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106793
Liquid solvent direct air capture’s cost and carbon dioxide removal vary with ambient environmental conditions, Shorey & Abdulla, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01773-1
Timber and carbon sequestration potential of Chinese forests under different forest management scenarios, Hui-Ling et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.10.003
Decarbonization
Addressing extreme weather events for the renewable power-water-heating sectors in Neom, Saudi Arabia, Riera et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01777-x
Do off-grid solar energy based productive activities increase income of beneficiaries: An impact evaluation using PSM and DID techniques, Ingole, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101567
Enhancing performance of operational utility-scale solar PV projects in India through re-powering: Potential and techno-economic assessment, Motiwala et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101574
Impacts of renewable energy resources on the weather vulnerability of power systems, Zhao et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-024-01652-1
Riding the future: Environmental, primary energy and economic analysis of an electric motorcycle - A Kenyan case study, La Fleur et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101573
Weather-sensitive renewable energy sources do not subject power systems to blackouts, , Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-024-01657-w
Geoengineering climate
Early life stages of fish under ocean alkalinity enhancement in coastal plankton communities, Goldenberg et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-4521-2024
Climate change communications & cognition
Climate emotions, thoughts, and plans among US adolescents and young adults: a cross-sectional descriptive survey and analysis by political party identification and self-reported exposure to severe weather events, Lewandowski et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/s2542-5196(24)00229-8
Climate justice beliefs related to climate action and policy support around the world, Ogunbode et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02168-y
Exploring climate-reproductive concern: factors influencing hesitancy towards parenthood in the context of the climate crisis, Helm et al., Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2024.2408779
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Adapting East and Southern Africa’s livestock to climate change: a decision making under deep uncertainty-based approach for effective actions, Mohamed et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2415397
Carbon farming in India: are the existing projects inclusive, additional, and permanent?, Cariappa & Krishna, Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2416497
Current and future cropland suitability for cereal production across the rainfed agricultural landscapes of Ethiopia, Wakjira et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110262
Differentiated strategies for synergistic mitigation of ammonia and methane emissions from agricultural cropping systems in China, Li et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110250
Adapting East and Southern Africa’s livestock to climate change: a decision making under deep uncertainty-based approach for effective actions, Mohamed et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2024.2415397
Carbon farming in India: are the existing projects inclusive, additional, and permanent?, Cariappa & Krishna, Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2416497
Current and future cropland suitability for cereal production across the rainfed agricultural landscapes of Ethiopia, Wakjira et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110262
Differentiated strategies for synergistic mitigation of ammonia and methane emissions from agricultural cropping systems in China, Li et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110250
Enhanced climate change resilience on wheat anther morphology using optimized deep learning techniques, Zahir et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-74875-7
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Phenological Adaptation Is Insufficient to Offset Climate Change-Induced Yield Losses in US Hybrid Maize, Kusmec & Schnable, Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17539
Predicting the influence of extreme temperatures on grain production in the Middle-Lower Yangtze Plains using a spatially-aware deep learning model, Mu & Xia, PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.18234
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
A supply-limited torrent that does not feel the heat of climate change, Qie et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-53316-z
Climate change impacts on hydrology and water resources in East Africa considering CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6, Onyutha, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1453726
How unusual was Australia's 2017–2019 Tinderbox Drought?, Falster et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100734
Strengthening of the hydrological cycle in the Lake Chad Basin under current climate change, Sylvestre et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-75707-4
The Changing Morphology of Global Precipitation Systems during the Last Two Decades, Zhang & Wang, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-23-0106.1
The Streamflow Response to Multi-Day Warm Anomaly Events: Sensitivity to Future Warming and Spatiotemporal Variability by Event Magnitude, Anderson & Chartrand, Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004962
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Accelerating the penetration of clean electricity to promote the low carbonization of high-speed railways: A probabilistic framework, Wang et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101582
An integrated policy approach for sustainable decarbonization pathways of energy system in a city under climate change scenarios, Rezazadeh & Avami, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114394
Carbon disclosures and information asymmetry: Empirical evidence on the importance of text in understanding numerical emission allowance disclosures, Steindl et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access 10.1111/jiec.13574
Coordinating the energy transition: Electrifying transportation in California and Germany, Goedeking & Meckling, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114321
Curbing household food waste and associated climate change impacts in an ageing society, Shigetomi et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-51553-w
Enormous inter-country inequality of embodied carbon emissions and its driving forces in South America, Wang et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102944
Ethics of carbon pricing – a review of the literature, Magnetti et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2416493
Going beyond the Council as brake of EU energy policy: Analysing the internal process of the Council in the recast of the Energy Performance of Buildings Directive, Björklund et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114388
Increasing wellbeing through energy demand reduction for net zero: Citizen perceptions of co-benefits of local measures, Mininni et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103799
Introducing auctioning in China’s national carbon market: lessons from international and domestic practices, Yu et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2024.2413856
Large Ensemble Exploration of Global Energy Transitions Under National Emissions Pledges, Wessel et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.171286336.63578557/v1
Routes to renewables: Overcoming obstacles and accelerating biogas cooperation, Mertins et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103802
Spatial–temporal dynamics of structural unemployment in declining coal mining regions and potentialities of the ‘just transition’, Mark et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114338
The energy system transition pathway towards carbon reduction using a model-coupling approach, Zheng et al., Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102945
The key role of sufficiency for low demand-based carbon neutrality and energy security across Europe, Wiese et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-53393-0
Understanding public acceptability of climate policies in Europe, Zhang et al., Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2024.2415371
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
An analytical framework for assessing heat vulnerability in urban thermal environmental planning, Kim & Kim, Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102145
Centering and uplifting youth voice in planning for a more resilient climate future in rural Colorado: a case study of a student resilience team asking for change, Schloesser et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1408872
Cities and climate change in developing countries, Puppim de Oliveira & Bhuiyan Corvalán Puppim de Oliveira Sharifi Gebrie Ensminger Lee Sung Marina Ho Balogun Hoang Clark , Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2024.102169
Distributional justice and climate risk assessment: An analysis of disparities within direct and indirect risk, Anderson et al., Risk Analysis Open Access 10.1111/risa.17664
Mapping the integration of climate considerations in social protection in LMICs: An assessment of ninety-eight climate-relevant social protection programs, Costella et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100660
Climate change & geopolitics
Measuring the climate security nexus: The Integrated Climate Security Framework, Pacillo et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000280
Other
Can Expert Prediction Markets Forecast Climate-Related Risks?, Roulston & Kaivanto, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-24-0135.1
On the fidelity of high-resolution numerical weather forecasts of contrail-favorable conditions, Thompson et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107663
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
An editorial to the Special Issue on “Severe Climate Risks”, Magnan et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100661
Beyond 2030: structures for achieving sustainable development, Cernev & Fenner, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1453366
Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy, Jones et al., Earth System Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024
Over-reliance on land for carbon dioxide removal in net-zero climate pledges, Dooley et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-024-53466-0
Pope Francis and the environment, act 2. Time for decisive climate action, Mazzoleni, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2024.2416372
The need for carbon finance schemes to tackle overexploitation of tropical forest wildlife, Milson et al., Conservation Biology Open Access 10.1111/cobi.14406
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
The Economics of Water: Valuing the Hydrological Cycle as a Global Common Good, Mazzucato et al., Global Commission on the Economics of Water
The authors set out to recast the economics of water, mapping the systemic links of the hydrological cycle to land, climate change, biodiversity loss, and progress on the SDGs. They explore and propose how to redefine and re-value water as a critical planetary resource and manage the hydrological cycle locally and as a global common good. They highlight changes to the hydrological cycle, including the drivers of change, impacts, and consequences across scales and geographies. They provide the evidence and opportunities for systemic action to address the world’s most important water missions and set out the critical enablers required for these transformations.
Europe's state of water 2024: the need for improved water resilience, European Environment Agency
Europe's water is under significant pressure, presenting serious challenges to water security, now and in the future. As such, Europe urgently needs to improve its resilience and ensure sustainable freshwater supplies for people and the environment. The authors present the state of Europe's water. They outline three overarching challenges facing future European water management including protecting and restoring aquatic ecosystems; achieving the zero pollution ambition; and adapting to water scarcity, drought, and flood risks.
World Energy Outlook, Cozzi et al., International Energy Agency
There are three overarching and interrelated themes for this year’s Outlook. The first is energy security, corresponding to the longstanding core of the IEA’s mandate as well as the imperatives of the present given escalating risks in the Middle East. The second relates to the prospects for clean energy transitions, which have accelerated rapidly in recent years, but which need to move much faster to meet climate goals. A third theme is uncertainty, an ever-present factor in any forward-looking analysis but particularly visible this year: the Outlook includes several sensitivity cases on key factors affecting oil, gas, and electricity demand in the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS).
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Central African Republic, Brodtkorb et al., Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
The Central African Republic (CAR) is highly exposed to the impacts of climate change due to socioecological vulnerabilities and ongoing insecurity. Drivers of vulnerability include the absence of state authority, natural resource mismanagement, and low household and community resilience. Although the security situation has improved in recent years, it remains volatile; factions of the Coalition of Patriots for Change (CPC), self-defense groups, and bandits regularly clash with government forces, allies, and mercenaries such as the Wagner Group (now Africa Corps) in rural areas. A changing climate and the deteriorating security situation in the Sahel and the Great Lakes region have driven transhumant pastoralists further into CAR earlier in the transhumance season, creating tensions. Additionally, the spillover effects of the war in Sudan have put added pressure on the humanitarian situation in CAR, particularly in the Vakaga and Haute-Kotto prefectures.
Climate Change & Crime, Peter Schwartzstein, The Center for Climate and Security
Crime has received relatively little attention to date in the climate security literature. This brief paper is an attempt to begin redressing that shortfall. While crime, as a form of insecurity, might seem low stakes in comparison to terrorism and inter-state conflict, its sheer breadth ensures that many more people have likely suffered from it compared with more ‘macro’ forms of climate-related violence. From petty theft to not-so-petty assaults, climate change is leaving its mark on almost every category of crime.
Impact of Climate Change on Health and Drug Demand, Abir et al., RAND
The authors of this report estimated how the anticipated effects of climate change on the prevalence of a sample of four chronic conditions — cardiovascular disease (CVD), asthma, end-stage renal disease (ESRD), and Alzheimer's disease — will affect demand for the drugs needed to treat them (metoprolol, albuterol, heparin, and donepezil, respectively). To generate these estimates, the authors conducted an environmental scan of the peer-reviewed and gray literature and developed a medical condition–specific systems dynamics model. The model can help inform policies for ensuring drug supply under various climate scenarios.
Ukraine’s Energy and Climate Challenges, Special Editors, Susanne Nies and Olha Bondarenko, Ukraine Analytical Journal
This issue of the Ukraine Analytical Journal is devoted to Ukraine’s energy and climate challenges. How can the country deal with the paramount heat and power deficit expected for the coming winter? What solutions are at hand? And how can these short-term solutions be consistent with the needs of a more mid- and long-term clean energy transition?
Climate Change and Nuclear Power 2024: Financing Nuclear Energy in Low Carbon Transitions, International Atomic Energy Agency
The authors examine the dynamics of financing nuclear projects to unlock much-needed nuclear energy capacity as ambitious climate targets draw nearer. They explore the imperative for robust financial frameworks to propel the adoption of nuclear energy as a cornerstone of global decarbonization efforts. This publication seeks to inform those at the intersection of sustainability and finance — climate negotiators, government officials, commercial and multilateral financiers, energy and climate policymakers, experts, non-governmental organizations and media representatives — about the potential of nuclear energy in mitigation and highlight challenges and best practices in financing nuclear projects.
Dirty Steel, Dangerous Air, Nadia Steinzor, Industrious Labs
The author offers the first facility-by-facility breakdown of toxic emissions from U.S. coal-based steel and coke plants, exposing the staggering human toll: up to an estimated 892 premature deaths, 250,500 cases of asthma symptoms, and $13.2 billion in health costs every year associated with pollution from just 17 facilities in Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Michigan, and Virginia. These health costs are associated with the cost of symptom management, medical care, and the societal costs of premature deaths. The report used self-reported industry data collected by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and EPA's CO–Benefits Risk Assessment (COBRA) screening model to conduct the analysis.
Climate-Conscious & Cost-Effective: The Case for Plant-Based University Catering, Billy Nicholles and Chris Bryant, Bryant Research
The authors model the financial and environmental impacts of a transition to plant-based catering in universities. They compiled environmental impact data, wholesale prices, and portion sizes for 140 different ingredients to estimate the environmental footprint and food procurement costs for a range of meat-based, vegetarian, and plant-based university meals. A plant-based transition can be financially beneficial for universities. Indeed, the transition presents an opportunity for cost savings, with food costs for plant-based meals being on average 30% cheaper than meat-based meals, and 21% cheaper than vegetarian meals. Plant-based meals greatly diminish the environmental impact of university catering. Plant-based meals emit 84% less CO2eq on average compared to meat-based meals and use less than one-tenth of the land. A medium-sized university with 10,000 students could save over £500,000 (€600,000/$650,000) annually on food procurement costs by adopting 100% plant-based university catering.
Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions
We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light" but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance.
- Here's an excellent collection of tips and techniques for obtaining articles, legally.
- Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate
- The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you're interested in an article title and it is not listed here as "open access," be sure to check the link anyway.
How is New Research assembled?
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.
The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
- Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a "yes" to this automatically.
- Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week's 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.
A few journals offer public access to "preprint" versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we'll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as "preprint."
The section "Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives" includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of "perspectives," observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.
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Journals covered
A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.
Previous edition
The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.
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