Arguments
Skeptical Science New Research for Week #42 2024
Posted on 17 October 2024 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
The influence of partisan news on climate mitigation support: An investigation into the mediating role of perceived risk and efficacy, Choi & Hart, Risk Analysis:
Perceptions of efficacy play a central role in motivating people to engage in climate actions. However, there has been little investigation into how different climate efficacy beliefs are formed and how they may be associated with support for climate mitigation policies. This study, based on the motivated control framework, examines how risk perceptions may differentially be associated with four types of efficacy constructs (self-efficacy, personal outcome expectancy, collective efficacy, and collective outcome efficacy). It also places the motivated control framework in the context of the partisan information sphere and examines how exposure to partisan news may influence mitigation policy support through the mediators of risk perceptions and the efficacy constructs. Results suggest that liberal- and conservative-leaning news exposure, respectively, associate with higher and lower supports for policies. Overall, risk perception was a significant mediator, and the mediating function of efficacy varied depending on the specific construct being examined. For liberal news use, increased risk perceptions had a positive association with policy support through self-efficacy and collective outcome expectancy but also had an unexpected negative association with policy support through personal outcome expectancy and collective efficacy. For conservative news use, decreased risk perceptions resulted in further decreased beliefs of self-efficacy and collective outcome expectancy, resulting in lower levels of support for climate policies. We also find that political ideology is a significant moderator for the mediation model. Implications for climate change communication are discussed.
Gains in soil carbon storage under anthropogenic nitrogen deposition are rapidly lost following its cessation, Propson et al., Ecology:
In the Northern Hemisphere, anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition contributed to the enhancement of the global terrestrial carbon (C) sink, partially offsetting CO2 emissions. Across several long-term field experiments, this ecosystem-level response was determined to be driven, in part, by the suppression of microbial activity associated with the breakdown of soil organic matter. However, since the implementation of emission abatement policies in the 1970s, atmospheric N deposition has declined globally, and the consequences of this decline are unknown. Here, we assessed the response of soil C storage and associated microbial activities, in a long-term field study that experimentally increased N deposition for 24 years. We measured soil C and N, microbial activity, and compared effect sizes of soil C in response to, and in recovery from, the N deposition treatment across the history of our experiment (1994–2022). Our results demonstrate that the accumulated C in the organic horizon has been lost and exhibits additional deficits 5 years post-termination of the N deposition treatment. These findings, in part, arise from mechanistic changes in microbial activity. Soil C in the mineral soil was less responsive thus far in recovery. If these organic horizon C dynamics are similar in other temperate forests, the Northern Hemisphere C sink will be reduced and climate warming will be enhanced.
Vulnerability of Arctic-Boreal methane emissions to climate change, Parmentier et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science:
In this review, we assess the various sources and sinks of methane from northern high latitudes, in particular those that may be enhanced by permafrost thaw. The largest terrestrial sources of the Arctic-Boreal region are its numerous wetlands, lakes, rivers and streams. However, fires, geological seeps and glacial margins can be locally strong emitters. In addition, dry upland soils are an important sink of atmospheric methane. We estimate that the net emission of all these landforms and point sources may be as much as 48.7 [13.3–86.9] Tg CH4 yr−1. The Arctic Ocean is also a net source of methane to the atmosphere, in particular its shallow shelves, but we assess that the marine environment emits a fraction of what is released from the terrestrial domain: 4.9 [0.4–19.4] Tg CH4 yr−1. While it appears unlikely that emissions from the ocean surface to the atmosphere are increasing, now or in the foreseeable future, evidence points towards a modest increase from terrestrial sources over the past decades, in particular wetlands and possibly lakes. The influence of permafrost thaw on future methane emissions may be strongest through associated changes in the hydrology of the landscape rather than the availability of previously frozen carbon. Although high latitude methane sources are not yet acting as a strong climate feedback, they might play an increasingly important role in the net greenhouse gas balance of the Arctic-Boreal region with continued climate change.
Weaponization of climate and environment crises: Risks, realities, and consequences, Vuong et al., Environmental Science & Policy:
The importance of addressing the existential threat to humanity, climate change, has grown remarkedly in recent years while conflicting views and interests in societies exist. Therefore, climate change agendas have been weaponized to varying degrees, ranging from the international level between countries to the domestic level among political parties. In such contexts, climate change agendas are predominantly driven by political or economic ambitions, sometimes unconnected to concerns for environmental sustainability. Consequently, it can result in an environment that fosters antagonism and disputes over power and position and increases the risk of prolonged confrontations, hindering the collective global efforts to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Through the current discourse, we aim to provide a preliminary definition of the weaponization of climate change and environmental sustainability and examine its risks and consequences on international relations, political dynamics, public perception, and the comprehensive integrity of climate action. We also recommend embracing a globally coordinated, scientifically substantiated approach to circumvent climate change by building an eco-surplus cultural value system.
From this week's government/NGO section
Florida Climate Survey - September 2024, Polsky et al., Florida Atlantic University
Most Floridians are more likely to support candidates who fight climate change: 52% agree with the statement: “A candidate's political record reducing the impacts of climate change would make me more likely to vote for that candidate.” There were differences based on the political parties of the respondents on the above question – 74% of Democrats agree with the statement, as compared to 35% of Republicans and 39% of respondents reporting no party affiliation. A large majority of Floridians support using more renewable energy in the state: 75% agree with the statement, “Florida should diversify its energy sources to include more electricity produced by renewable sources.” There was strong support across party lines with the above statement: 87% of Democrats agree, 68% of Republicans, and 66% of respondents reporting no party affiliation. Most Floridians are worried about the impact of climate change on insurance: 58% agree with the statement, “Climate change has me concerned about being able to afford and maintain my homeowner's insurance in Florida.”
Private Equity Climate Risks, Duong et al., Americans for Financial Reform Education Fund, Global Energy Monitor, and Private Equity Stakeholder Project
Private equity continues to transform the financial markets and the daily lives of communities around the globe. With over a trillion dollars in energy investments generating high greenhouse gas emissions and minimal public visibility, private equity firms play an outsized role in accelerating the climate crisis. New research for this edition of the scorecard reveals just how high the industry’s fossil fuel emissions are. The private equity energy portfolios covered in this report are responsible for an estimated, combined total of 1.17 gigatons of annual emissions. This figure equals 1.17 billion metric tons CO2 equivalent (CO2e) and is limited to the three categories covered in the scope of this research: upstream, liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, and coal plants, and does not represent the firms’ entire emissions footprint from energy investments. In the US alone, there were 28 weather and climate disasters in 2023, resulting in at least $92.9 billion in disaster damages, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information. The need for transparency, accountability, and a just transition to a clean energy economy has never been more urgent.
The security blind spot: Cascading climate impacts and tipping points threaten national security, Laybourn et al., Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, The Global Systems Institute, the Institute for Public Policy Research, and The Strategic Climate Risks Initiative
The new UK government has initiated a Strategic Defence Review and is undertaking a review of national resilience. Security threats resulting from climate change should be at the core of the government’s approach. These threats have been consistently and significantly underestimated and now pose major security risks. Recent governments have not considered climate change a priority national security issue. Climate-security threats are non-linear and are escalating, posing profound challenges to national and international security.
104 articles in 50 journals by 610 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Arctic climate response to European radiative forcing: a deep learning study on circulation pattern changes, Mehrdad et al., Weather and Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/wcd-5-1223-2024
Gulf Stream mesoscale variabilities drive bottom marine heatwaves in Northwest Atlantic continental margin methane seeps, Wu & He, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01742-8
Present-day methane shortwave absorption mutes surface warming relative to preindustrial conditions, Allen et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-11207-2024
Temperature sensitivity of the mineral permafrost feedback at the continental scale, Walsh et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adq4893
The carbon crater: Comparing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to historical planetary events, Nelson et al., The Anthropocene Review 10.1177/20530196241279373
Observations of climate change, effects
A global poleward shift of atmospheric rivers, Li & Ding, Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adq0604
A recent surge in global warming is not detectable yet, Beaulieu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01711-1
Global Wind Erosion Reduction Driven by Changing Climate and Land Use, Sun et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004930
Heatwave Intensifications in Armenia: Evidence From Temporal and Spatial Analysis of Observational Data Over the Last Decades, Galstyan et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8646
Surging compound drought–heatwaves underrated in global soils, Fan et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2410294121
The pace of change of summertime temperature extremes, McKinnon et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2406143121
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Customized Statistically Downscaled CMIP5 and CMIP6 Projections: Application in the Edwards Aquifer Region in South-Central Texas, Wootten et al., Earth's Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004716
Land-Use Feedback under Global Warming—A Transition from Radiative to Hydrological Feedback Regime, Singh et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0426.1
Tropical cyclone landfalls in the Northwest Pacific under global warming, Kim & Ahn, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8616
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Selecting CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs) for Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) dynamical downscaling over Southeast Asia using a standardised benchmarking framework, Nguyen et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-7285-2024
Cryosphere & climate change
Accelerated glacier mass loss in the mid-latitude Eurasia from 2019 to 2022 revealed by ICESat-2, WANG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.09.008
Assessing the representation of Arctic sea ice and the marginal ice zone in ocean–sea ice reanalyses, Cocetta et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-4687-2024
Environmental and societal consequences of winter ice loss from lakes, Hampton et al., Science 10.1126/science.adl3211
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Centennial-scale variations in the carbon cycle enhanced by high obliquity, Legrain et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-024-01556-5
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Asymmetric winter warming reduces microbial carbon use efficiency and growth more than symmetric year-round warming in alpine soils, Li et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2401523121
Climate change and exotic pathogens shift carbon allocation in Mediterranean mixed forests, Gaytán et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access 10.1111/1365-2745.14426
Climate Futures for Lizards and Snakes in Western North America May Result in New Species Management Issues, Pilliod et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70379
Enhanced relationship between seasonal soil moisture droughts and vegetation under climate change over China, Hao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110258
Extreme Temperatures Reduce Copepod Performance and Change the Relative Abundance of Internal Microbiota, Vu et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70408
From Delay to Advance: The Impact of Increasing Drought on Autumn Photosynthetic Phenology in Subtropical and Tropical Forests, Xu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112054
Habitat type controls microarthropod community changes across a Magellanic sub-Antarctic elevation gradient, Bokhorst et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.3389/fevo.2024.1440649
How Climate Change May Impact Plant Reproduction and Fitness by Altering the Temporal Separation of Male and Female Flowering, Buonaiuto, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17533
Identifying climate-smart tropical Key Biodiversity Areas for protection in response to widespread temperature novelty, Trew et al., Conservation Letters Open Access 10.1111/conl.13050
Inadvertent climate refugia, Hayes & Berger, Conservation Letters Open Access 10.1111/conl.13063
Incorporating Implicit Information to Disentangle the Impacts of Hydropower Dams and Climate Change on Basin-Scale Fish Habitat Distribution, Bai et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70412
Interactive Effects of Climate Change and Pathogens on Plant Performance: A Global Meta-Analysis, Gallego?Tévar et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17535
Phytoplankton Spring Bloom Inhibited by Marine Heatwaves in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea, Li et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl109141
Predicting the Potential Distribution of Rare and Endangered Emmenopterys henryi in China Under Climate Change, Cai & Zhang, Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.70403
Regional-scale disturbances drive long-term decline of inshore coral reef fish assemblages in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, Ceccarelli et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.17506
Resistance of Australian fish communities to drought and flood: implications for climate change and adaptations, Hansen et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1111/ecog.07442
Trajectories of Terrestrial Vegetation Productivity and Its Driving Factors in China's Drylands, Gong et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111391
Widespread increase in sensitivity of vegetation growth to climate variability on the Tibetan Plateau, Wu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110260
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Carbon storage in the built environment, Bjånesøy et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1088/2634-4505/ad139f
Gains in soil carbon storage under anthropogenic nitrogen deposition are rapidly lost following its cessation, Propson et al., Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1002/ecy.4444
Impact of Alaska atmospheric blocking on the carbon flux in the Northeast Pacific Ocean, Wang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2024.106770
Improved definition of prior uncertainties in CO2 and CO fossil fuel fluxes and its impact on multi-species inversion with GEOS-Chem (v12.5), Super et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-7263-2024
Overlooked branch turnover creates a widespread bias in forest carbon accounting, Lim et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2401035121
Seasonal dynamics and regional distribution patterns of CO2 and CH4 in the north-eastern Baltic Sea, Lainela et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-21-4495-2024
Simple and Accurate Representation of Cumulative Nighttime Leaf Respiratory CO2 Efflux, Bruhn et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17529
Soil carbon and nitrogen cycling at the atmosphere–soil interface: Quantifying the responses of biocrust–soil interactions to global change, Witzgall et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.17519
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Underestimation of global soil CO2 flux measurements caused by near-surface winds, Feng et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1459948
Vulnerability of Arctic-Boreal methane emissions to climate change, Parmentier et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1460155
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Advancements in covalent organic framework-based nanocomposites: Pioneering materials for CO2 reduction and storage, Singh & Dave, Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.2297
Biochar mitigation potential in Norway estimated by IPCC Tier 1 and Tier 2 methods, Hagenbo et al., Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2024.2410823
Development of a multicomponent counter-current flow model to evaluate the impact of oxygen and water vapor on CO2 removal performance in a hollow fiber membrane contactor, Yang et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.2304
Navigating Research Challenges to Estimate Blue Carbon Benefits From Saltmarsh Restoration, Mason et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.17526
Synergies of storing hydrogen at the crest of CO2${rm CO}&{2}$ or other gas storage, Liao et al., Natural Gas Industry B Open Access 10.1016/j.ngib.2021.07.003
Decarbonization
Advanced photovoltaic technology can reduce land requirements and climate impact on energy generation, Saxena et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01754-4
Evaluating the levelized costs and life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of electricity generation from rooftop solar photovoltaics: a Swiss case study, Zhang et al., Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/ad80c3
Exploring the cost and emissions impacts, feasibility and scalability of battery electric ships, Moon et al., Nature Energy Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41560-024-01655-y
Measurements of particle emissions of an A350-941 burning 100 % sustainable aviation fuels in cruise, Dischl et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-24-11255-2024
Wind energy and insects: reviewing the state of knowledge and identifying potential interactions, Weschler & Tronstad, PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.18153
Climate change communications & cognition
The Greta Effect: Is there more public support for climate protesters who are young and female?, Gan et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103924
The influence of partisan news on climate mitigation support: An investigation into the mediating role of perceived risk and efficacy, Choi & Hart, Risk Analysis Open Access 10.1111/risa.17659
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in selected tea factories in Kenya, Kibet & Letema, Open Access pdf 10.31223/x5wq2g
Estimating the carbon footprint of digital agriculture deployment: A parametric bottom-up modeling approach, La Rocca et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access 10.1111/jiec.13568
Locally led adaptation metrics for Africa: a framework for building resilience in smallholder farming sectors, Okeke-Ogbuafor et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2024.1429462
Maize breeding for smaller tassels threatens yield under a warming climate, Zhang et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02161-5
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Understanding the local implications of climate change: Unpacking the experiences of smallholder farmers in Thulamela Municipality, Vhembe District, Limpopo Province, South Africa, Shoko Kori et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000500
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Assessment of Meteorological Drought in a Changing Environment: An Example in the Upper Yangtze River, Shen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2024jd041019
Hydrologic Responses to Climate Change and Implications for Reservoirs in the Source Region of the Yangtze River, Qin et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8639
Climate change economics
A financial disaster in the making: Temperature shocks, climate change and savings, Trinh et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103782
Economy-wide impact of targeting and repurposing fossil fuel subsidies in Malaysia, Shittu et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114373
How to align climate ambition and economic equality, , Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-024-02152-6
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Assessing the impacts of fertility and retirement policies on China’s carbon emissions, Tang et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-024-02162-4
Balancing energy transition: Assessing decent living standards and future energy demand in the Global South, Chatterjee et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103757
Circular, avoided, or captured carbon (dioxide)? - A taxonomy approach for life cycle assessment and CO2 accounting, Hookway, Truth, Rationality, and Pragmatism Open Access 10.1093/0199256586.003.0013
Co-creating a community visioning methodology for energy transitions: Principles, practices, and reflections, Gray et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103783
Decarbonization and social justice: The case for artisanal and small-scale mining, Finn et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103733
Decarbonizing industrial hubs and clusters: Towards an integrated framework of green industrial policies, Oh & Al-Juaied, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103777
Examining changes in household carbon footprints across generations in the UK using decomposition analysis, Owen & Büchs, Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access 10.1111/jiec.13567
Exploring carbon footprints and carbon intensities of Indonesian provinces in a domestic and global context, Rum et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2024.1325089
How beliefs about tampering with nature influence support for enhanced geothermal systems: A cross-national study, Cousse et al., Risk Analysis Open Access 10.1111/risa.17656
Indigenous peoples in carbon pricing policymaking, Yankey et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103927
Making and breaking promises: must a country harmonize its climate pledges and policies?, Baker & Roser, Environmental Politics Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2024.2397938
Navigating emergent effects in off-grid systems: Ostrom's design principles and rural energy policy implications, Namujju, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103786
Relaxing fertility policies and delaying retirement age increase China’s carbon emissions, Tang et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-024-02145-5
Risk preferences, bill increases and the future reliability of electricity networks in Australia, Tocock et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103763
Strategic pathways for offshore wind in Mexico: Geospatial insights and economic viability toward energy sustainability, Juárez-Casildo et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101565
The Role and Impact of Rooftop Photovoltaics in the Norwegian Energy System under Different Energy Transition Pathways, Myhre & Rosenberg, Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access 10.1002/aesr.202400184
Whose low-carbon future? Community perceptions and expectations on the renewable energy transition in a post-industrial city, Bates et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103781
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
A comparative assessment of accommodation strategies based on elevated buildings for coastal adaptation, Pasquier et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100655
Anticipating climate risk in Norwegian municipalities, Bakke Lie et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100658
Climate change impacts on residential energy usage in hot semi-arid climate: Jordan case study, Albatayneh et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2024.101576
Measuring the contribution of nature-based solutions beyond climate adaptation in cities, Goodwin et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102939
Peace in an extreme climate: How climate-related security risks affect prospects for stability in Lake Chad, Nagarajan et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000314
The Increase in Urban Heat Due to Global Warming Can be Significantly Affected by the Structure of the Land Use and Land Cover, Jank? et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8642
The risk of energy hardship increases with extreme heat and cold in Australia, Li et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-024-01729-5
Climate change impacts on human health
Does Climate Change Exacerbate Gender Inequality in Cognitive Performance?, Chen & Yu Yu Yu, Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102941
On the Stationarity of the Global Spatial Dependency of Heat Risk on Drought, Zampieri et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2024gl111117
Climate change & geopolitics
Investors reward countries for participating in climate agreements, Saxena & Singh Singh, Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-2775978/v1
Weaponization of climate and environment crises: Risks, realities, and consequences, Vuong et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.envsci.2024.103928
Other
Global wildfire activity re-visited, Dube, Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102894
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Frontiers in attributing climate extremes and associated impacts, Perkins-Kirkpatrick et al., Open Access 10.31223/x5gt4j
The role of forestry sciences in combating climate change and advancing sustainable development goals, Raman et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2024.1409667
Theory and the future of land-climate science, Byrne et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-024-01553-8
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Navigating climate action: Assessing the economic impacts and trade-offs of a shipping carbon tax for African states, Ogbugo et al., African Policy Research Institute
The International Maritime Organization (IMO), the entity responsible for regulating international shipping, has committed to cutting emissions from shipping to net zero by around 2050. The authors look at some of the candidate mid-term measures under discussion at the IMO and the likely impacts they will have on African economies. The authors also examine which issues need to be addressed for especially developing countries if the implementation of the measures is to be supported, as well as what opportunities there might be to trade off costs against benefits if the planned economic measures materialize.
The Dirty Truth About Utility Climate Pledges 2024, Cara Fogle and Noah Ver Beek, Sierra Club
The next decade is critical to averting the worst impacts of the climate crisis and transforming the U.S. economy to run entirely on clean energy. Studies show that to meet these climate goals utilities must retire all their coal plants by 2030, abandon plans to build gas plants, and aggressively build out renewable energy resources over the next 10 years. Despite this pressing deadline, utilities are either not moving fast enough toward these goals, or not moving at all. Dozens of utilities may have pledged to become “carbon neutral” by 2050, but the author's research shows that those pledges are largely greenwashing. Most utilities in the United States lack the truly ambitious pledges and plans needed to make the clean energy transition a reality.
Climate change key driver of catastrophic impacts of Hurricane Helene that devastated both coastal and inland communities, Clarke, World Weather Attribution
Late on September 26th, Hurricane Helene made landfall at category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale on the panhandle of Florida, bringing high winds, extreme rainfall, and storm surges to coastal areas. In today’s climate, that has already been warmed by 1.3 °C due primarily to the burning of fossil fuels, weather observations indicate that rainfall events as severe as those brought by hurricane Helene now occur about once every 7 (3 – 25) years in the coastal region, and about once every 70 (20 – 3000) years in the inland region. To determine the role of climate change in rainfall we combine observations with climate models. In both regions, the rainfall was about 10% heavier due to climate change, and equivalently the rainfall totals over the 2-day and 3-day maxima were made about 40% and 70% more likely by climate change, respectively.
Global Hunger Index, Wiemers et al, Welthungerhilfe and Concern Worldwide
With the 2030 target date for achieving Zero Hunger fast approaching, the 2024 Global Hunger Index (GHI) makes it starkly clear that the world is far from meeting that critical goal. The realization of the right to adequate food is out of reach for billions of people. Progress in reducing all four GHI indicators—undernourishment, child stunting, child wasting, and child mortality—is falling short of internationally agreed targets. Many countries and territories are experiencing unprecedented levels of acute food insecurity, with potentially dire implications for their long-term development.
Public Financial Support for Renewable Power Generation and Integration in the G20 Countries, Laan et al., International Institute for Sustainable Development
In 2023, the G20 committed to “pursue and encourage efforts to triple renewable energy capacity globally” (G20 Leaders, 2023), a pledge taken up by 198 UNFCCC parties later that year. The world is not on track to achieve the goal despite record capacity additions in 2023. Currently, global renewable power capacity is projected to increase by only 2.5 times by 2030. Achieving the tripling target will require total investments—public and private—in renewable power capacity, grids, and storage to at least double from 2023 levels of around USD 1.1 trillion per year.
Private Equity Climate Risks, Duong et al., Americans for Financial Reform Education Fund, Global Energy Monitor, and Private Equity Stakeholder Project
Private equity continues to transform the financial markets and the daily lives of communities around the globe. With over a trillion dollars in energy investments generating high greenhouse gas emissions and minimal public visibility, private equity firms play an outsized role in accelerating the climate crisis. New research for this edition of the scorecard reveals just how high the industry’s fossil fuel emissions are. The private equity energy portfolios covered in this report are responsible for an estimated, combined total of 1.17 gigatons of annual emissions. This figure equals 1.17 billion metric tons CO2 equivalent (CO2e) and is limited to the three categories covered in the scope of this research: upstream, liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals, and coal plants, and does not represent the firms’ entire emissions footprint from energy investments. In the US alone, there were 28 weather and climate disasters in 2023, resulting in at least $92.9 billion in disaster damages, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information. The need for transparency, accountability, and a just transition to a clean energy economy has never been more urgent.
Procuring With Purpose: Canada’s Opportunity to Shape the Carbon Removal Market, Carbon Removal Canada
Canada now has a unique opportunity to leverage the combined purchasing power of public and private markets to support the carbon removal industry through procurement. The Canadian government, in its April 2024 federal budget, has signaled its interest in procurement by expanding the scope of the Low-carbon Fuel Procurement Program to include the purchase of carbon removal. This announcement created one of the world’s first formal government procurement initiatives for carbon removal, enabling Canada to create an industry-defining program and shape the carbon removal market. As the Government of Canada works to develop and implement a program, it should seek to attract other public and private sector buyers into the market to establish similar procurement efforts. However, success in the carbon removal market through procurement is not guaranteed, and the authors seek to recommend design elements that can help maximize positive impact
The security blind spot: Cascading climate impacts and tipping points threaten national security, Laybourn et al., Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, The Global Systems Institute, the Institute for Public Policy Research, and The Strategic Climate Risks Initiative
The new UK government has initiated a Strategic Defence Review and is undertaking a review of national resilience. Security threats resulting from climate change should be at the core of the government’s approach. These threats have been consistently and significantly underestimated and now pose major security risks. Recent governments have not considered climate change a priority national security issue. Climate-security threats are non-linear and are escalating, posing profound challenges to national and international security. escalate.
2024 Living Planet Report. A System in Peril, WWF
The bi-annual report functions as a check-up on the health of the Earth. Underpinning the report is the Living Planet Index, which monitors populations of mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians, and fish around the world. This year the report found that monitored wildlife populations declined by an average of 73% since 1970. Importantly, this year’s report also reveals that the Earth stands on the verge of tipping points for tropical forests and coral reefs that could have severe consequences for people and nature everywhere
2024 Electric Report, Laszlo von Lazar and Jim Doull, Black and Veatch
The authors, drawing upon expert analyses of a survey of nearly 700 U.S. energy industry stakeholders – tell the story of an electric industry navigating a sea of challenges, e.g., data centers and cyber security, along with great opportunity, always mindful that in many ways it is a matter of budgets and funding.
Top 50 Banks In The World Tackling Adaptation - 2024, Woodall et al., Climate X and Climate Proof
The authors present a first-of-its-kind ranking of 50 of the world’s largest commercial banks by climate adaptation maturity. Development finance institutions and multilateral development banks are out of scope. This provides a high-level overview of the relative performance of lenders against a series of 17 qualitative indicators, covering how banks think about, act on, and track various climate adaptation efforts. By assessing these indicators, the authors determined how banks are integrating climate adaptation considerations into their frameworks and identifying trends, regional disparities, and best practices. The analysis reveals that most banks exhibit a low level of engagement with climate adaptation. No bank met more than 12 of the 17 indicators, and all but seven banks met less than half of the indicators.
Leaders or Laggards? Analyzing major US banks’ net-zero commitments, Sierra Club
The six major US banks — JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citi, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley — have committed to reaching net-zero emissions across their financial portfolios by 2050. While those long-term goals are laudable, they are also the bare minimum for climate action and risk mitigation; what is most important now is the rapid, robust, and transparent implementation of those commitments. The authors aim to capture key elements of that implementation by examining the near-term emissions targets, exclusion policies, and climate-related disclosures of the six major US banks. Though the banks have published climate targets, policies, and disclosures across a range of sectors, the scope of this report is mainly focused on those practices for the fossil fuel sector, as the principal driver of the climate crisis and an outsized source of related financial risks.
Energy Transition Outlook 2024, Irvine et al., Det Norske Veritas
The authors see some developments speeding up the energy transition and others slowing it down. The massive shift to renewables is unstoppable, but too slow to meet global climate goals. 2024 is likely to be the year of peak emissions. Rapid growth of solar PV and batteries is likely to occur, with slower developments in carbon capture and sequestration and hydrogen. Chinese clean tech speeds up the transition but faces a tariff backlash.
Utility-Scale Solar, 2024 Edition, Seel et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
The authors present their analysis of empirical plant-level data from the U.S. fleet of ground-mounted photovoltaic (PV), PV+battery, and concentrating solar-thermal power (CSP) plants with capacities exceeding 5 MW. While focused on key developments in 2023, the authors explore trends in deployment, technology, capital and operating costs, capacity factors, the levelized cost of solar energy (LCOE), power purchase agreement (PPA) prices, wholesale market value, health and climate benefits, and interconnection queues.
Future Risks Reports, Axa
The authors explore the perceptions and concerns of both experts and the general public amid a rapidly evolving risk landscape in the UK and globally. They found that 77% of experts and 55% of the general public in the UK believe that risks are becoming increasingly interconnected. Geopolitical tensions caused by the situation in the Middle East and the war between Russia and Ukraine have led to a rise in concern about the likelihood of future conflict and the potential ripple effect across security, financial and energy markets, and cyberinfrastructure. However, only 15% of experts in the UK have confidence in the Government’s ability to mitigate and address geopolitical instability, highlighting a lack of faith in the Government’s readiness to address evolving threats. Climate change remains the most prominent concern for both UK experts and the general public, highlighting the urgent need to address its impacts and build resilience. As with geopolitical instability, confidence in the Government’s ability to manage and mitigate its effects is low and has dropped significantly from last year, with only 5% of experts responding positively compared to 22% in 2023.
Florida Climate Survey - September 2024, Polsky et al., Florida Atlantic University
Most Floridians are more likely to support candidates who fight climate change: 52% agree with the statement: “A candidate's political record reducing the impacts of climate change would make me more likely to vote for that candidate.” There were differences based on the political parties of the respondents on the above question – 74% of Democrats agree with the statement, as compared to 35% of Republicans and 39% of respondents reporting no party affiliation. A large majority of Floridians support using more renewable energy in the state: 75% agree with the statement, “Florida should diversify its energy sources to include more electricity produced by renewable sources.” There was strong support across party lines with the above statement: 87% of Democrats agree, 68% of Republicans, and 66% of respondents reporting no party affiliation. Most Floridians are worried about the impact of climate change on insurance: 58% agree with the statement, “Climate change has me concerned about being able to afford and maintain my homeowner's insurance in Florida.”
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We know it's frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as "On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light" but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article's relevance and importance.
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How is New Research assembled?
Most articles appearing here are found via RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance.
Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database.
The objective of New Research isn't to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers' impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:
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