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All IPCC definitions taken from Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Annex I, Glossary, pp. 941-954. Cambridge University Press.

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Comments 57101 to 57150:

  1. Ian Plimer Pens Aussie Geologist Gish Gallop #2 of the Week
    I got a lot of replies so I'm separating my responses with "----" lines, for readability. ----------------------------- ----------------------------- @14 & 16 - Tom Curtis: You wrote it is "impossible to keep a close eye on the Australian political scene without realizing that all left wing or centrist political parties with enough support to have seats in parliament support the Carbon Tax." There are no traditional left-wing parties on the Australian political scene (not without going to the fringes, where I sit), and that includes the Greens in practice (if not in words). Support in Parliament does not correlate with support in the general population - the survey I posted had some substantive empirical evidence to the contrary. It would be a mistake to assume that because 45% of seats belong to Party X, the views of Party X must be popular with 45% of the population. That isn't true for any Western country right now, and certainly not for Australia. People are voted out, not in. As I mentioned, the deeply unpopular conservative party is going to win the next election, despite being deeply unpopular, simply because, this time around the ALP is slightly more unpopular. "The same is true outside of parliament" - Well, no, it's not. Talk to the more organised pro-carbon tax environmental campaigners one-on-one, and they will often tell you 'We know it's not a solution, but it's a start' - not disimilar to the argument you made in post #16, in fact. But neither the spread of organised campaigning groups, nor the composition of Parliament, are indications of what 'Australians' support (or oppose). Surveys and polls of regular people, talking to average people on the ground, reading what people say when they do get themselves into the media, are much better indications. I am confident that if you do this, you will find that support for the carbon tax is not widespread. - "The question is, then, will you increase that uncertainty, as appears to be your intention, or provide accurate clear information to dispel?" Perhaps you should have a glass of water before you post anything again, mate. This is insulting and inappropriate. I expect some basic assumption of good faith. - "It is however, also predicted to stop emissions growth of 66.7% by 2050." A valid point. So what's the good of that if you've taken this reduced emissions growth from people's economic well-being (which is not necessary to reduce carbon emissions, but *is* necessary if you just use a carbon tax to do it), alienating them from the movement, and waved away solutions that will actually provide a meaningful reduction? - "Dissembly suggests alternative policies for tackling climate change, and he is certainly welcome to pursue them. Optimistically it would take around 10 years for him to achieve the political capital to implement his preferred solution. In that 10 years, without the carbon tax emissions would have grown by another 60 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent per annum." '10 years' is a bizarre estimation, which I guess you pulled out of thin air. Right now, there is very little political will to do anything substantive about climate change - despite the majority of people being in favour of doing something. I assume your conception of political capital means lobbying the ALP, Greens, Coalition, etc. to win them over, or something of the sort. This would not achieve much. What is needed is concerted trade union activity and probably the formation of a new party; there are a lot of obstacles to this, but a lot in its favour as well. Under the right circumstances, this sort of thing can happen quite quickly (Syriza in Greece is a recent example; Syriza isn't a new party, but it has taken on a new form, and forced their rivals to the left in that country despite failing to win the most recent election). "This is assuming his plan could in fact be implemented, which I doubt." If it can't be implemented, then global warming can't be averted. A carbon tax is not going to solve the problem, and now you're saying to me that the development of alternative energies with a concerted public investment is simply not possible? If that's the case, then the game is already over. I prefer to be a little less pessimistic. ----------------------------- ----------------------------- @scaddenp - "I would have thought that the carbon tax was incentive to de-carbonize industry (especially use alternative generation) because you would then have more competitive advantage of industry that didnt. Consumer would buy so as to avoid tax." That is all true... - "Not necessarily "reduce unnecessary production" ...but it is both. All a carbon tax is, is a market incentive. In theory, consumers have an incentive to cut down energy use (buy less stuff, cut out unnecessary production), industry has an incentive to source lower-carbon energy, investors have an incentive to invest in renewables, all at the same time. The problems with this are manifold. I only highlighted the problems with the first clause, the effect on consumers. But the also assumes that consumers have renewable-energy-sourced alternatives to purchase from. Without massive investment in alternative energy, the green choices for customers simply don't exist. (At the moment, most green energy options involve offsets & gas plants - woefully inadequate to actually solve the basic problem). So the carbon pricing is supposed to incentivise investment as well. But in recessions, owners of capital simply do not invest. Even when you throw massive bailout packages at them. Even outside of recessions, they are unlikely to invest in high cost projects with long-term payoffs - which is what alternative energy production is. Carbon pricing would need to be far higher to make this attractive. The current government has already shown that it would rather let private alternative energy companies die a market-led death than supply them with the funds necessary to make something happen. Alternative energy is something that requires a lot of investment, with little expectation of short-term profitability. That is a job for public investment and nationalised ownership. It simply will not happen in a market, certainly not without making the carbon tax much higher (and withdrawing government support for other areas of industry). Without nationalised public investment, the carbon tax will essentially be driving people to cut down on consumption more than anything else; i.e. simulating a recession, while we are already likely to be heading into one. - "(what defines "unnecessary")." Exactly. 'Unnecessary' is what we won't (or can't) pay for. I have a problem with this approach. This is my problem with this entire approach: treating the problem as if average consumers are the root cause (and creating a situation where they will pay the most for it; proportionate to actual wealth), when the cause is in fact far bigger than individual people. - "A 2% reduction by 2050 sounds like a very pessimistic assessment of alternative energy." That's not an assessment of alternative energy, but of the efficacy of this specific market-based solution. What I'm arguing is that alternative energy is, in fact, the real solution. ----------------------------- ----------------------------- @Sphaerica said: "There is so much profligate waste and thoughtless but unnecessary consumption in the system that major cuts are easy if people are simply given an incentive to do so" - I disagree with this approach, for three reasons. 1) This addresses the symptoms of the problem, without addressing the cause. We have an economic system where private profit in certain industries (and the lack of political will to nationalise or publicly invest) has meant that we are stuck with outdated technologies, when we desperately need to move away from these technologies ASAP, to escape a massive environmental crisis. The problem does not lie in individual purchasing decisions - the problem lies in the large-scale systematic reason for the continued dominance of a fossil fuel industry in an age where alternative energies are theoretically able to support people. 2) This alienates average people, and in some senses rightly so, by placing the economic burden for a giant problem onto them. You speak as if cutting back was just a simple trick - well, for some people, it is. For others, they'll be asking you "how much more can we possibly cut back?" 100,000 are homeless in Australia, many more in inadequately funded public housing, others experiencing massive rent stress. What do they have to sacrifice? 3) Related to 2), a carbon tax is a regressive tax, a "flat tax". It not only treats most people as if they are both equally responsible for the problem and equally able to afford to fix it, it actually affects those at the lower end much more. Now the ALP has said they will pay some people back - not all people. At the same time, they make cuts in other areas that low-income people rely on. Economically, how are we actually going to police them on this? How do we propose to ensure that nobody truly is worse off? If welfare is cut (currently a bipartisan policy) while the carbon tax is brought in, and then the government offers to pay some people back for the carbon tax, how do you actually disentangle how much worse or better off you are, even if you can force them to maintain the compensation programs indefinitely? It's a bit of a shell game. ----------------------------- ----------------------------- @skywatcher - You pointed to an article that pointed out: "This means that a future Abbott Government will have to negotiate a legally binding reduction to Australia’s carbon emissions in its first term." - I sure hope so. The problem with the piece you link to is that it commits the fallacy of the excluded middle. It sees two options - carbon tax, or no carbon tax. The fact is, Australia can reduce its emissions by investing heavily in alternative energies and instituting a large-scale program to bring alternatives up the task of providing baseload power. So what do we do? Grab the paltry crumbs off the table that they throw us - the carbon tax - and hail them when they make token gestures in the direction of not outright denying the fact that there is a problem? Or say, 'Uh, no, that's not actually a solution, this is.' The bottom lines are, only large-scale, co-ordinated investment can replace fossil fuels with alternative energies; only public investment can do this, as market-based strategies rely on profit-oriented investors (who simply aren't up to the task); and hurting a large number of people for a half-assed attempt at a solution is not going to win environmentalists the credibility & support that we need to carry out a real solution.
  2. Ari Jokimäki at 14:46 PM on 4 July 2012
    New research from last week 26/2012
    But note that the radiocarbon article is from 1978, and the article itself writes that the varying formation was reported already in 1950's.
  3. Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    I regard you guys as heroes already. Don Miller, New Zealand.
  4. Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    Mark Bigland-Pritchard, Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada
  5. Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    Rob Eales Melbourne, Victoria
  6. Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    Jay Kamins, United States
  7. 2012 SkS Weekly Digest #26
    This wiki is in "alpha" state of development and we invite you to help plan and grow it "under wraps" until enough support, structure, and configurations are in place.
    From the welcome page for the wiki. Given there's a last mod date of 8th March 2012 on that SkSkS page, and it has has a history going back to - well, let's be generous and say January 2012 (though if you actually take a look...), it appears that 'support, structure and configurations' may not, um, altogether be 'in place'.
  8. Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    Jason Wood, Canada
  9. Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    Peter Strand Rumpel Calgary Alberta- Just a little south of the Tar Sands...
  10. 2012 SkS Weekly Digest #26
    I'm sure it'll be patched up somewhat as time goes on, but the whole premise of reconciling the mutually-irreconcilable twaddle of climate change denialism is nevertheless doomed to humiliating failure - the more so as those unfortunate nominated grandchildren become grandparents themselves. However, as I am frequently wont to point out, half of the human population is of below-average intelligence, so even irreconciled twaddle will reach some people.
  11. 2012 SkS Weekly Digest #26
    Yep, that's truly priceless. Has rather made my day.
  12. Daniel Bailey at 11:12 AM on 4 July 2012
    Ocean heat flux and the Arctic
    This is a great piece, Neven. Thanks for taking the time to do it!
  13. Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    Hear, hear, hear! Timothy S. Hanes Atlanta, Georgia USA
  14. Ian Plimer Pens Aussie Geologist Gish Gallop #2 of the Week
    Further to Tom's #14, this excellent piece by Andrew Mackintosh at The Conversation is worth a read. There may be some uncertainty about the CEF package, and the political Right in Australia, like Abbot, would love to be able to wish it away. The truth is that it's not necessarily actually going to be an easy thing to do, even if he wins office next year. Another very interesting point is made in this piece, also at The Conversation - I'll quote:
    "But in December all countries agreed in Durban to be part of a legally binding treaty by 2015. Existing pledges will presumably be used as the basis of this global agreement. This means that a future Abbott Government will have to negotiate a legally binding reduction to Australia’s carbon emissions in its first term. It might choose to play hardball and let the burden fall on other countries. This would put Australia in breach of its responsibilities under the UNFCCC. Australia would also be free-riding on the cuts of other countries, which is fundamentally unjust for a rich country and will damage our diplomatic relationships, particularly with the developing world. Australia would then be isolated in global climate change negotiations."
  15. Carbon Pricing Alarmists Disproven by the Reality of RGGI
    Tristan - it's not easy to find state-by-state CO2 emissions data. However, that's not really the point of the post. The point of the post is to debunk the myth that carbon pricing will cripple the economy. Obviously the RGGI carbon pricing system has not.
  16. Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    Added my name via email
  17. kampmannpeine at 06:07 AM on 4 July 2012
    New research from last week 26/2012
    thanks Ari, in particular I found the C14 article great: It is showing how the formation of C14 is varying ... before it was assumed this formation to be constant ... nice indeed ...
  18. Help Send Peter Sinclair to the Mt. Baker Glacier
    To answer Chriskoz's question about Easton Glacier - snowmobiles are not allowed on the hard ice whatsoever. Mount Baker is in the jurisdiction of the National Forest Service and the Baker-Snoqualmie National Forest. On the north side it has a wilderness designation, on the south side is a large section with a National Recreation Area designation. The Park actually starts to the east of Mount Baker so if you do the Hannigan trail to Copper Ridge or Cascade Pass to Stehikin you'll cross into the North Cascade National Park lands. Running a snowmobile on the hard ice (the glaciers) [will] get you a lovely ticket (payable to the National Forest Service in Colorado). Easton falls in the NRA, the National Recreation Area, which we call the "snow cone" because of its shape and extends from the Schriebers Meadows trail head to the summit. Snow has lingered long and is plenty deep this year starting at and elevation of about 3,500 feet. While I'm thrilled Mr. Sinclair is coming he would do best to start working out now, every single day. The road up to Artists Point remains closed as are many of the trail heads including Railroad Grade which will take you up to Easton and Deming.
  19. Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    Dustin Carey, Canada
  20. Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    Wondering how many of these get included in FOI act requests, or were part of the archives stolen from CRU. I've seen people claim that there are no threats against climate scientists; that seems just as delusional as the denier claims in general. I've said before, people have a tendency to go a bit crazy when threatened, and a changing climate is very threatening. Researchers should indeed put some effort into watching their backs. It is not rational, but there exist many who would kill the messenger.
  21. Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    Chris Golledge USA
  22. Rob Painting at 03:19 AM on 4 July 2012
    2012 SkS Weekly Digest #26
    Bernard- very comprehensive. Basically sums up the contrarian's case.
  23. Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    Nick Palmer Jersey, Channel Islands
  24. Asteroid Miner at 03:09 AM on 4 July 2012
    Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    Phil Jones: Keep up the good work.
  25. Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    Excellent Letter, pleas add my name. David V. Cruz-Uribe, SFO Trinity College, Hartford, CT, USA
  26. Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    Susan Allen, Canada
  27. 2012 SkS Weekly Digest #26
    http://climatewiki.org.uk/Deconstructing_%22Skeptical_Science%22 Blech.
  28. The GLOBAL global warming signal
    Kevin C - Thanks for this series of posts. It really reinforces the points that, when the full set of data is considered, the identified trends are: * Visible in all of the collected datasets, * Consistent from one dataset to another, and * The trends are significant, well above noise levels.
  29. birdbrainscan at 01:24 AM on 4 July 2012
    Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    Jim Prall, Toronto, Canada Keep your chin up. The crazies on the internet are not the ones who will decide our collective response to this enormous challenge.
  30. Bob Lacatena at 01:02 AM on 4 July 2012
    Ian Plimer Pens Aussie Geologist Gish Gallop #2 of the Week
    13, Dissembly, The reality is, however, that cutting emissions is pretty easy. There is so much profligate waste and thoughtless but unnecessary consumption in the system that major cuts are easy if people are simply given an incentive to do so. As evidence, take the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, ten northeast USA states that collectively moved to cut emissions and were very, very successful in doing so. And that wasn't even really that strong an effort, because people were not themselves motivated, cuts came only through government action. There is a lot of low hanging fruit to be picked, and all it would take to get there is (a) a little bit of leadership and (b) economic incentives to move people along. The same thing happened with litter in the USA in the seventies. It was all over the place as disposable cans, bottles and wrappers became cheap and omnipresent. It seemed like the world would forever be covered in junk because that was human nature. A combination of simple solutions (more trash cans in easy reach), serious littering fines, financial incentives (deposits on aluminum cans) and finally a collective change in public attitude (effective advertising) solved the problem very quickly. What really bugs me about deniers is that attacking this problem is really not going to be as hard as it seems, at least not the first level. We could easily be holding our emissions down and in so doing at least buy time for further technology development and further climate research. But instead, the denial alarmists claim that any action will destroy the world economy and throw us all into the dark ages. It's insanity. Suck it up, people. It's a problem. Address the problem, and stop running from it and burying your head in whichever hole seems to fit most comfortably (in this case, that's the "solve the problem but don't tax me" hole).
  31. Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    Joakim Larson, Stockholm Sweden
  32. Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    David du Toit Pretoria, South Africa
  33. Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    Kirrilee Loudon, ACT, Australia
  34. Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    Catamon: Perth Western Australia Hang in. There are many who will abuse, but more who will support you. Thanx for your work.
  35. Ari Jokimäki at 20:44 PM on 3 July 2012
    New research from last week 26/2012
    No it wasn't, but now it is, thanks.
  36. Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    Phil, Your work protects my children. Thank you. John Stewart Sydney Australia.
  37. Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    Keep going,your work is invaluable. Ann Owen, Wales, UK
  38. New research from last week 26/2012
    Great post as usual, Ari. Is the date right for Damon et al - 2012?
  39. Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    I remember Jones' interview on the darkness he felt following the rotten attacks on him. It made me sad and angry for him. There are now 6 pages of signers here and no doubt a number of emails. This is heartening. Email sent, full support.
  40. Carbon Pricing Alarmists Disproven by the Reality of RGGI
    This post is missing a critical piece of information. It states: The [RGGI] states have far exceeded their emissions reduction target, with a 23% overall reduction in 2009-2011 power plant CO2 emissions as compared to the 2006-2008 How does that compare to the non-RGGI states, whose emissions have also reduced? Without that context, the above isn't all that meaningful.
  41. John Donovan at 14:42 PM on 3 July 2012
    Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    John Donovan, Eugene, Oregon, USA
  42. Ian Plimer Pens Aussie Geologist Gish Gallop #2 of the Week
    Further to dissembly @13, he suggests that the Carbon Tax virtually pointless because it is only predicted to reduce domestic emissions by 2%. It is however, also predicted to stop emissions growth of 66.7% by 2050. In other words, while not a complete solution it moves us away from uncontrolled emissions growth, and prevents approximately 8 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent emissions. Dissembly suggests alternative policies for tackling climate change, and he is certainly welcome to pursue them. Optimistically it would take around 10 years for him to achieve the political capital to implement his preferred solution. In that 10 years, without the carbon tax emissions would have grown by another 60 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent per annum. With out the Carbon Tax, therefore, he would face a much more difficult task to reduce emissions because a much larger (and faster) reduction would be required. (This is assuming his plan could in fact be implemented, which I doubt.)
  43. Ian Plimer Pens Aussie Geologist Gish Gallop #2 of the Week
    Dissembly, I'm on other side of Ditch and so not following developments in West Island as close as you obviously, but I had perceived the aims of the scheme differently. I would have thought that the carbon tax was incentive to de-carbonize industry (especially use alternative generation) because you would then have more competitive advantage of industry that didnt. Consumer would buy so as to avoid tax. Not necessarily "reduce unnecessary production" (what defines "unnecessary"). I would have thought biggest criticism was that it didnt hand back 100% of the tax? It seems a lot simpler and cleaner than our ETS which has been further slowed down. A 2% reduction by 2050 sounds like a very pessimistic assessment of alternative energy.
  44. Ian Plimer Pens Aussie Geologist Gish Gallop #2 of the Week
    dissembly @13 it is impossible to keep a close eye on the Australian political scene without realizing that all left wing or centrist political parties with enough support to have seats in parliament support the Carbon Tax. That even extends to most of the independents in Federal Parliament, with three conservative and one left leaning independent all voting for the tax. The same is true outside of parliament, with all organized opposition to the Carbon Tax coming from conservative political parties, right wing think tanks, and denier organizations. Many of the opponents of the Carbon Tax are quite happy to dissemble; and those who are more honest still never call the others on their falsehoods. The result has been a perfect storm of misinformation. Given that, it is no surprise that there is substantial uncertainty about the Carbon Tax in Australia. The question is, then, will you increase that uncertainty, as appears to be your intention, or provide accurate clear information to dispel?
  45. Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    Patricia Hughes, NSW Australia
  46. Ian Plimer Pens Aussie Geologist Gish Gallop #2 of the Week
    @dana1981 I take exception to this: "the Australian government (primarily their Labor Party) passed Clean Energy Bill 2011, which implemented a national carbon pricing system (starting as a tax, then becoming an emissions trading system). This was a major achievement for Australia, but one which political conservatives tended to oppose". In fact, opposition to the carbon pricing scheme is not limited to political conservatives, and, according to surveys, includes the majority of people in Australia. Polls I have seen have shown that up to 80% of Australians believe that AGW is a real issue, yet as many as 75% are opposed to the carbon tax. (And despite rumours to the contrary, Australians are not necessarily politically conservative when it gets down to the polling details: http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollytics/2012/06/11/what-australians-believe/ ). So I think it is factually incorrect to present opposition to the carbon tax as something associated with political conservatism (or AGW denial) - that is certainly not the case in Australia. The Liberal Party's position on the carbon tax is seen as a populist move, even though most people polled disagree with their AGW-denialist stance. I also disagree with the description of the carbon tax as "a major achievement for Australia", and I say this as someone who fully agrees with the science on global warming, and sits far to the left on the political spectrum. This is actually a point of contention among the environmentalist movement in Australia. In my own experience, the carbon tax has made the Greens (and environmental issues) quite unpopular, where previously they were seen as having a moral high ground. It has alienated people who agreed with us on AGW, because it is seen as a measure in which average people will be made to pay for a problem created by big business. A conservative government in the next election is a near-certainty at this stage, and the carbon tax is one of the policy decisions that has contributed to this near-certainty. macoles wrote: "The only plausible criticism of the CEF package is that low incomes earners will be overcompensated via the "Household assistance measures", and that could be seen as vote buying."" In fact, there are more people in tricky economic circumstances in Australia than is commonly reported, as cost of living increases have been eating away at us for some time. There's a lot of doubt that the carbon tax's compensation packages will actually compensate for all the increases, much of which will be difficult to track (as businesses fold their cost increases into the prices that they pass on to consumers). Perhaps more importantly, Treasury figures have shown that the carbon tax and cap & trade program is only expected to reduce emissions by something like 2% by 2050 - the reason that higher figures are often quoted is that they include "reductions" from the purchasing of carbon offsets from overseas. This is an especially fraught issue; in some cases businesses will be "purchasing" things such as 'a promise not to log an area of forest that (supposedly) otherwise would have been logged'. One could write essays on the problems with cap & trade (and many already have, so I'll stop myself there). Another consideration is the role of economic recession - already in full swing overseas, and definitely en route to Australia (via recent drops in Chinese manufacturing/infrastructure, which partly relies on Australian mining exports; and via the high Australian dollar that has already caused substantial job losses in manufacturing, retail and tourism; a lot of people are already 'underemployed', if not unemployed). Carbon pricing is an incentive scheme to reduce unnecessary production, but recession already raises the price of production and pares things down to a bare minimum (even below the bare minimum, as unemployment & poverty rise). The 1990s economic crash in Eastern Europe did more for carbon emissions than any carbon price has. The alternatives I would propose involve nationalisation of energy production & active development of alternatives (rather than using a market incentive system), which I'm sure I don't need to go into (and it'd take me OT anyway). So I question the characterisation of opposition to carbon pricing as a hallmark of political conservatism, and the description of it as a step forward for those of us who know that AGW is a problem and want to do something about it. Both implications are factually incorrect.
  47. Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    AH. Tony Duncan, Vt, USA
  48. Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    Posting on my facebook page. You have gone through hell because of ideological thuggery. I know scientists aren't perfect and science isn't perfect, yet you should never have been subjected to the hostility and paranoid delusions of these people. Your have my sympathy and support, and what you have gone through has strengthened my resolve to do what I can to get the facts as we know them out to the public
  49. Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    Phil, I regard you as an honest and brave scientist. My children will learn to take you as a role model. Their children and those of the fake skeptics will be inspired by your great contributions to the survival of civilization. Keep up the good work. There are many of us who will stand up for dealing with reality rather than preserving personal interest. Thank you for all you do! Bill Rumbley USA
  50. Nil Illegitimi Carborundum
    Long time reader (and learner) here and had to register to show support. Let us hope the increasingly desperate talk from the deniers shows they realise that the end game has arrived for them. No one should have to receive the sort of stuff Professor Jones has so I totally support this show of support for him. Mike Doyle, London

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