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Martin at 03:46 AM on 11 June 2012Today's Climate More Sensitive to Carbon Dioxide Than in Past 12 Million Years
I always thought that CO2 was the control knob. This is the first time I've heard that other factors play a major role in determining global temperature. Does the Nature article explain why the thermocline was so deep at the time? How would the ocean circulation have to change to make our modern world cooler? -
Bob Loblaw at 01:53 AM on 11 June 2012Pal Review - the True Story and the Fairy Tale
Although I also agree with John, Tom, and Dana, I can also imagine that the De Freitas et al group think that their collusion just represents an example of how thorough the "establishment" conspiracy against them was - only by setting up their own "non-biased" editor at a journal outside the clutches of the mainstream scientists could they succeed at getting their "brilliance" published. When you view things as a conspiracy, it's easy to reject any "evidence" that disagrees with your world view. To paraphrase from Monty Python's The Oscar Wilde Sketch, De Freitas et al probably think that their papers "shine out like a shaft of gold when all around is dark", when most everyone else in the climate scientist community recognizes that they are "like a stream of bat's piss". -
Tom Curtis at 20:56 PM on 10 June 2012Don Easterbrook's Heartland Distortion of Reality
Gareth Renowden, who has tracked down many of Easterbrook's other shonky claims has now made a forthright analysis of Easterbrook's latest claims. Well worth a read. -
Rob Painting at 17:10 PM on 10 June 2012Today's Climate More Sensitive to Carbon Dioxide Than in Past 12 Million Years
Sailrick - what do your contrarian adversaries think is happening to all those fossil fuel emissions? The simplest counter-argument is that carbon isotope ratios reveal that the CO2 cannot be coming from a volcanic source. See SkS post: Comparing CO2 emissions to CO2 levels. Dave123- the problem I have with the article is that it is not enlightening. Earth's climate was certainly sensitive to atmospheric CO2 concentration before the Miocene, and afterwards. What was so special about the Miocene? The article doesn't help in clearing this up. -
Tristan at 16:54 PM on 10 June 2012Today's Climate More Sensitive to Carbon Dioxide Than in Past 12 Million Years
sailrick http://www.skepticalscience.com/volcanoes-and-global-warming.htmModerator Response: TC: Link made live. -
Dave123 at 15:24 PM on 10 June 2012Today's Climate More Sensitive to Carbon Dioxide Than in Past 12 Million Years
I suppose you can respond- 1) that an explanation of the differences was offered (does the full paper indicate that models were applied and failed without basic changes in heat distribution assignments and ocean current patterns...but succeeded when adjusted?) and 2) It's not comforting that it was hotter with lower CO2...that just makes the current increases scarier. But the people grasping at those straws aren't good listeners or thinkers. When the science is resolved on this, count on another myth surviving all attempts to put a stake through its heart. -
sailrick at 14:20 PM on 10 June 2012Today's Climate More Sensitive to Carbon Dioxide Than in Past 12 Million Years
This is off topic, but I keep seeing skeptic comments on the internet, that say volcanoes below the sea are where CO2 is coming from. Is there a post that covers that? -
ubrew12 at 14:17 PM on 10 June 2012Today's Climate More Sensitive to Carbon Dioxide Than in Past 12 Million Years
Dave123: I've already seen it used just that way. -
Dave123 at 10:44 AM on 10 June 2012Today's Climate More Sensitive to Carbon Dioxide Than in Past 12 Million Years
This is fascinating. But I can't help thinking that fake skeptics will seize upon this genuine inquiry as another means of saying "See, Climate Scientists can't explain something so we don't know what's going on now" -
dana1981 at 09:30 AM on 10 June 2012Pal Review - the True Story and the Fairy Tale
Tom Curtis @16 - I agree, the fact that the pal's CR submissions began when de Freitas started at the journal, dried up after he left, and that he handled the majority of their CR submissions, is pretty damning evidence. -
Tom Curtis at 07:53 AM on 10 June 2012Pal Review - the True Story and the Fairy Tale
Without going into the detailed research that John Mashey did, what is most damning to me is the fact that the pals began frequent submissions to Climate Research only on the appointment of Chris De Freitas as Associate Editor, directed their submissions almost exclusively to him, and ceased submissions after their "gig" was discovered. That pattern seems to indicate clearly that they did not think their articles could were worthy of publication, and would need De Freitas to shepherd their articles through peer review. It also strongly suggest that they new before submission that De Freitas would do exactly that. Tellingly, fake "skeptic" accusations of "pal review" are never accompanied by evidence of such selective submission patterns. -
dana1981 at 05:21 AM on 10 June 2012Don Easterbrook's Heartland Distortion of Reality
Note that a SkS contributor emailed this post to Easterbrook, so he should now be aware that his IPCC-related assertions are factually wrong. It appears he has declined to comment on the post or respond to the email, however. -
dana1981 at 05:07 AM on 10 June 2012Fred Singer Promotes Fossil Fuels through Myths and Misinformation
actually thoughtful @13 - it's a good point that right now when unemployment is high is exactly the right time to be funding infrastructure projects like the transition to renewable energy for the overall benefit of the economy. -
JohnMashey at 02:27 AM on 10 June 2012Pal Review - the True Story and the Fairy Tale
dana1981 added the nice graph to visualize the connections, as opposed to proving anything. I would be happy to hear critiques of my original paper's research, by informed readers who: a) Read my entire paper. b) Read all the red-labeled papers (ones labeled A-U) c) Read the rest of the de Freitas-reviewed papers, a-m d) At least read the abstracts of the rest. The spreadsheet was published, listing ~700 papers, all with URLs. e) Having done that, feel free to argue with my categorizations,i.e., columns D and E, especially of those marked in red. I do not claim these are perfect, and of course I'd be especially interested if anyone finds appears that deserve to be red, or argue informedly that a red one deserve not to be. f) Then, pick a random dozen or two of the non-categorized articles edited by people other than Davis or Khandekar, evaluate them in the same way as I did, and categorize them in the same way as I did, with notes like mine on pp.9-14. -
ribwoods at 00:05 AM on 10 June 2012The 5 characteristics of scientific denialism
In "Update 16 April 2012" at article's end, the link to "article written by Mark and Chris Hoofnagle" is incorrect (http://scienceblogs.com/denialism/about.php) and should be http://scienceblogs.com/denialism/about/ as it is given for the phrase "first suggested by Mark and Chris Hoofnagle" at the end of the article's second paragraph. -
ribwoods at 23:33 PM on 9 June 2012Fred Singer Promotes Fossil Fuels through Myths and Misinformation
Re: "... a pro-Mitt Romney (the US Republican Party 2012 presidential nominee) editorial ..." Romney is the presumptive Republican presidential nominee because of the delegates he's accumulated in state primary elections, but cannot be the official nominee until the Republican National Convention, at the end of August, makes him so. -
chriskoz at 20:47 PM on 9 June 2012Richard Alley Looks at The Big Picture
Alex, Did you miss/misunderstood that "ostrich thing"? Watch it again, then. It does not say "Don't be an Ostrich" but "How to talk to an ostrich". I think proverbial "ostriches" are those who never take their heads out of the sand. Sure, they will not understand that series, possibly even dig the heads deeper. An example is Fred Singer with his mind so far from reality as discussed here to be absolutely incurable case. That's a classic ostrich. Any regrets that this series hurts the feelings of such man? Of course none. Same principle applies as what Richard Alley nicely explains in this video: minor cases do not matter. What does matter is a big picture. And big picture in this case is what sane people are going to think/do about it. What the decision makers, like Mitt Romney are going to do. -
bill4344 at 20:15 PM on 9 June 2012Richard Alley Looks at The Big Picture
Exactly... and at any rate, it's a whole lot less contentious than the 'D' word! It's well worth watching the whole 'Operators Manual' series (i.e. the full hour-long programs). Alley is a very likeable presenter. One could certainly direct ostriches to them... -
Dikran Marsupial at 19:04 PM on 9 June 2012Pal Review - the True Story and the Fairy Tale
Rufus9 wrote "Papers are pulled or corrected all the time, but likely not at a sufficient frequency to correct all errors" This is a very unrealistic expectation! In my experience the majority of papers either have significant flaws in the methodology, experimental sections that do not adequately support the conclusions, or flawed intepretation of the results. Peer review is only ever a sanity check, nothing more, and it is unwise to assume any paper is correct simply because it appears in a journal. "Group think" is not really a problem in peer review; the scientific mindset has no problem finding faults in anything, whether it agrees with their preconceptions or not. Personally I view the "group think" as mere rhetoric designed to discredit a particular branch of science that another branch doesn't like. It has nothing to do with science IMHO. The major problems with peer review is the "publish or perish" nature of academia, which means there is great pressure on all of us to publish in quantity often at the expense of quality. This is becuase it is hard to make an objective metric that measures quality (at least hard to make one that operates without a delay of 5+ years). This means that (i) there are many more papers published than there used to be (ii) academics have less time to review them than they used to do (iii) comments papers have little or no value, so academics have pretty much stopped writing them. The result is an explosion of the number of journal and a reduction in quality control. Nothing to do with "group think", everything to do with the economics. As I said, peer review has always only been regarded as a sanity check, nothing more (unless you are lucky enough to have really good reviewrs). In the past, poor papers get published, but they get ignored by the research community, so nothing needs to be done. It used to be that particularly bad papers recieved comments refuting them to make sure the are ignored, but that additional quality control no longer really exists. The problem these days is that the papers are discussed outside the research community, e.g. on climate blogs, that don't generally have the scientific background to properly understand them, and bad papers are no longer ignore as there will always be some that take them seriously, no matter how bad they are (e.g. any paper that argues that the rise in CO2 is a natural phenomenon). Peer review isn't emotionally charged, at least not in the sciences, a mountain is being made from a molehill IMHO. -
Rob Painting at 16:31 PM on 9 June 2012Richard Alley Looks at The Big Picture
Alex, it appears the videos are targeted at those that talk to climate change ostriches. -
actually thoughtful at 15:52 PM on 9 June 2012Fred Singer Promotes Fossil Fuels through Myths and Misinformation
With a worldwide shortage of jobs and the fact that it takes more labor to get energy from renewable sources - this supposed 1% reduction in GDP may not come to pass. That reduction is based on the premise of full employment. In that case, you have to take people from doing productive things into doing less productive (strictly economic sense here). So if it takes 1.5 as many people per unit of energy, and you have full employment - then GDP suffers. If you have a long-term underemployment situation, and you can switch people into productive work and raise employment, you actually end up growing the economy, not sacrificing growth. Renewables, in practice, usually have unintended consequences on the positive side. My solar thermal space heating customers enjoy warmer homes in the fall and spring (at zero extra cost/carbon) - because the system is sized for maximum production in the winter (with the least sunshine) - so it overproduces in the winter and fall. What is the catastrophic consequence of this? The GDP bashing fallout? Warmer, more comfortable people. (these systems are paying for themselves in about a decade. Then they funding a notable portion of my customer's retirement after that). The switch to renewables growing the economy is yet another unintended positive consequence of renewable energy. -
Rufus9 at 13:14 PM on 9 June 2012Pal Review - the True Story and the Fairy Tale
My main point which was addressed above was that drawing a connectivity network between parties with similar views may be interesting, but is not necessarily a sign of mass conspiracy. However, they can be a sign of group think, which is relatively commonplace in science. The peer review process itself is often flawed. One site to keep an eye on is: http://retractionwatch.wordpress.com/ Papers are pulled or corrected all the time, but likely not at a sufficient frequency to correct all errors. No doubt there are flaws in HSI, but at least in my reading there were mathematical or methodological critiques as well, including a potentially biased view of the peer review and editorial review process, but still, even if half true, it raised my awareness of problems in this emotionally charged area of science. For a very interesting discussion on scientific research, repeatability, and issues with the peer review process, I recommend listening to this episode of Econtalk with Ed Yong. http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2012/06/yong_on_science.html -
Alex The Seal at 11:06 AM on 9 June 2012Richard Alley Looks at The Big Picture
This is a great series but it's a pity about the whole ostrich thing. If you want to get someone to understand something.. and you start by likening them to an ostrich, you're really not going to get far. You can basically hear their minds creaking closed at that point. -
Tristan at 10:52 AM on 9 June 2012Correction to the True Cost of Coal Power - MMN11
Ahh, that link shows it's not 1% less per annum, (which rapidly becomes a very high cost) it's 1% total by 2030, no biggie. -
dana1981 at 08:56 AM on 9 June 2012Ian Plimer Pens Aussie Geologist Gish Gallop #2 of the Week
HR @10 - Skeptical Science covers both climate science and solutions. The Australian carbon pricing system is a climate solution. Discussing climate policy is not equivalent to discussing politics. For example, we did not criticize Plimer for his extreme political rhetoric, we simply corrected his factual errors when describing the policy solution. Discussing climate policy/solutions is entirely consistent with SkS guidelines. Discussing political motivations is not. -
Tom Curtis at 08:30 AM on 9 June 2012Ian Plimer Pens Aussie Geologist Gish Gallop #2 of the Week
Humanity Rules @10, Australia's current leader of the opposition is on record as saying that the science behind Climate change is crap. That does not make defending the science of climate change a political activity, or this a political blog. In the same manner, just because Plimmer makes false statements about a politically contentious issue, ie, the cost and effectiveness of the carbon tax, does not mean there is no fact of the matter; and discussing those facts is not a political act. It is, perhaps, economics rather than climate science that is being misrepresented by Plimmer - but given that the topic falls well withing the range of issues discussed by the IPCC (see WG2 and WG3 reports), it is certainly well within the appropriate range of topics for SkS. -
HumanityRules at 07:21 AM on 9 June 2012Ian Plimer Pens Aussie Geologist Gish Gallop #2 of the Week
Dana, "As is our usual practice at Skeptical Science, we will not comment on Plimer's political rhetoric, but instead will focus on the many climate science myths contained in his piece" The whole section marked 'Misrepresentation of the Australian Carbon Pricing System" is about tax, legislation, jobs and energy pricing. Since when is this climate science and not politics?Moderator Response: [DB] Given the nature of the OP, some leeway is given to matters tangential to it. Such as the section you outline. Politics not related to the OP, ad hominems and "sloganeering" (and other things proscribed by the Comments Policy) are still off-limits. -
dana1981 at 07:07 AM on 9 June 2012Correction to the True Cost of Coal Power - MMN11
I know in the USA the total estimated cost is around $1 trillion total beteween now and 2050. That's several times less than adaptation is expected to cost (see here). -
SRJ at 05:51 AM on 9 June 2012IPCC graph showing accelerating trends is misleading
# 86 SRJ and the discussion between me and Dikran in # 90, #95 and # 96 I should have mentioned that the graph of the GAM model shows 99% significance, marked with blue. Using the usual 95%, the GAM is significant until 2006. -
Tristan at 01:55 AM on 9 June 2012Correction to the True Cost of Coal Power - MMN11
Hmm. 39 years of 1.02 growth vs 1.03 seems to cost around 20% of total production over that period. I wonder at what point adaptation costs that amount. Maybe when the first superfamine hits. -
vrooomie at 01:11 AM on 9 June 2012In Search Of: Himalayan Ice Loss
Justin@6: where to begin? First, your plagiarism of a unattributed Wiki article was (-snip-), not mention bordering on violating the 'no ad hominem' proscription of SkS. It was easy to find, BTW. Gotta love the Googleboxes! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Himalayas Second, your point, as was pointed out, is *not even wrong*, it's so wrong. It's utterly irrelevant, and supports nothing of real benefit to the discussion at hand. Lastly, as a geologist, all I can say is... /facepalm.Moderator Response: [DB] Please refrain from accusations of dishonesty. -
dana1981 at 00:54 AM on 9 June 2012Correction to the True Cost of Coal Power - MMN11
I think that's right Tristan, though I could be mistaken. It could just be that it will cost 1% of GDP per year. -
Michael.M at 21:35 PM on 8 June 2012New research from last week 22/2012
Warmer temperatures reduce soil-fertility: Interactions between above- and belowground organisms modified in climate change experiments -
JohnMashey at 17:44 PM on 8 June 2012Pal Review - the True Story and the Fairy Tale
Well, since it has been raised by Rufus9: 1) Of course, well-published climate scientists know each other. Well-published scientists in any field know each other. 2) But for an equivalent situation, one needs to find a substantial set of cases where a) demonstrably-bad papers were shepherded through peer review, over years, by members of the group, b) causing other editors to resign in protest. Even competent researchers make mistakes, but in the CR case, not-so-competent researchers were well taken-care-of. Let's see, Vincent Gray, retired coal researcher gets a *review paper* slot. Well, that makes sense. Competent researchers are each others' toughest critics and they especially don't give free passes if friends send around something not up to par. 3) HSI: Montford not only relied on a non-credible article in a "dog astrology journal" for a key theme in his book, but then he falsified an already-wrong statement about it. In academe, false citation like this is one of the deadly sins, and if Montford were an academic, formal misconduct complaints would have been filed long ago. The only defense would be a plea of incompetence in not reading a key reference. See archived HSI dog astrology discussion on Wikipedia, which no one would even address, much less refute. They repeatedly tried to removed it (a no-no), but The Stoat kept reverting it back. See He Who Quotes from Dog Astrology Journal, @ Rabett Run or this comment @ Andrew Gelman's. -
Tristan at 17:38 PM on 8 June 2012Correction to the True Cost of Coal Power - MMN11
So if GDP growth were 1.03/annum under the no reduction regime, GDP growth would be 1.02/annum under the necessary cuts regime? -
gpwayne at 15:52 PM on 8 June 2012Pal Review - the True Story and the Fairy Tale
John Russell - Hi John - funny business about Dana's name appearing like that. It's the 'strong' tag, which I've now changed to 'b' (bold) instead. Dana Not surprised you don't spend much time in the Guardian threads, considering what a bloodbath it usually is. However, I was using them as a proxy for a wider target i.e. lay people. I think E&E get traction by 'looking like' sites that have more credibility within the scientific community, but generally I don't think the public can tell the difference, and those seeking to reinforce their own views through confirmation bias probably don't care. But it's a small point, and one I don't want to labour any further. Your work is far too good to harp on about this small point... -
dana1981 at 14:05 PM on 8 June 2012Correction to the True Cost of Coal Power - MMN11
Tristan - yes, to achieve the necessary emissions cuts it's estimated that GDP growth from now to 2050 will be 1% slower (not taking into account the slowing of GDP due to climate change if we take no action). Note that's a global average GDP - it's bound to differ from country to country. -
Tristan at 13:30 PM on 8 June 2012Correction to the True Cost of Coal Power - MMN11
Maybe this isn't the thread but I'm looking to understand the ~1% net impact on GDP figure. Is that the cost of the transition? It doesn't seem feasible that Australia could transition to 100% renewable energy production for $15B. -
Rufus9 at 12:43 PM on 8 June 2012Pal Review - the True Story and the Fairy Tale
I put this article as: Imitation is the ultimate flattery. Essentially, this influence network has been described on both sides of this debate (see The Hockey Stick Illusion, of which you're all familiar). (off topic snipped)Moderator Response: TC: Given the nature of the OP, a well supported "tu quoque" must be considered on topic, and given some lee way to establish their case. Simple assertions, however, violate the comments policy restrictions against ad hominens and "sloganeering". If Rufus9 wants to substantiate his case as John Mashey did, he is welcome to do so. If he continues to simply assert his claim without evidence, however, his comments will not be given leeway with regard to the "no ad hominen" rule. -
scaddenp at 12:21 PM on 8 June 2012Models are unreliable
I would also describe myself as computer modeller (though not in climate, but petroleum basins). My qualifications are geology,maths and yes a few CS papers, notably postgrad numerical analysis. My main concerns are about the numerical methods to solve the equations in the code; their speed, accuracy and robustness. Validation is a huge issue. We also have CS-qualified software engineers who tirelessly work on the code as well. What they bring to the picture is rigorous code-testing procedures (as opposed to model testing which is not the same thing), and massive improvement in code maintainability. Not to mention some incredibly useful insights into the tricky business of debugging code on large parallel MPI systems, and some fancy front-ends. The modelling and software engineering are overlapping domains that work well together. I suspect Clyde thought climate modellers were not programmers at all, imagining people tinkering with pre-built packages. So much skepticism is built on believing things that are not true. -
Bob Loblaw at 11:36 AM on 8 June 2012Models are unreliable
JasonB: Yes, an interesting and illuminating example. It seems that Clyde is "on hiatus", but to continue the discussion a bit: "Climate Models" (of the numerical/computer-based type) date back to the 1960s, when all computing was done on mainframes. Individuals wrote portions of code, but the mainframes also typically had installed libraries of common mathematical routines. The one I remember from my mainframe days is IMSL, which (from the Wikipedia page linked to) appeared on the scene in 1970, and is still actively developed. Such libraries were typically highly-optimized for the systems they were running on, and brought state-of-the-art code to the masses. (When I hear object-oriented affectionados talk about "reusable code" as if it is some novel concept, I think back to the days when I created my own linkable libraries of routines for use in different programs, long before "object oriented" was a gleam in someone's eye.) Of course, "state-of-the-art" was based on hardware that would compare badly to the processing power of a smart phone these days, and "the masses" were a small number of people that had access to universities or research institutes with computers. When I was an undergraduate student, one of my instructors had been a Masters student at Dalhousie University in Halifax (east cost) when it got the first computer in Canada east of Montreal. The university I attended provided computing resources to another university in Ontario that did not have a computer of its own. JasonB's description of developing algorithms and such is just what doing scientific computing is all about. The branch of mathematics/computing that is relevant is Numerical Methods, or Numerical Analysis, and it is a well-developed field of its own. It's not user interfaces and pretty graphs or animations (although those make programs easier to run and data easier to visualize), and a lot of what needs to be known won't be part of a current CS program. (My local university has four courses listed in its CS program that relate to numerical methods, and three of them are cross-references to the Mathematics department.) This is a quite specialized area of CS - just as climate is a specialized area of atmospheric science (or science in general). The idea that "climate experts" have gone about developing "climate models" without knowing anything about computers is just plain nonsense. -
citizenschallenge at 09:30 AM on 8 June 2012Hockey stick replaced with a hockey team
Time to update this information ;-) ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ "Yet More Studies Back Hockey Stick: Recent Global Warming Is Unprecedented In Magnitude And Speed And Cause" Eric Steig guest post at Think Progress -
dana1981 at 08:27 AM on 8 June 2012Fred Singer Promotes Fossil Fuels through Myths and Misinformation
Paul - I think it's important to dispel these sorts of energy-related myths, as they're integral to climate solutions. If people think our problems are tied to insufficient fossil fuel production, then we're in trouble, because in reality we need to be transitioning away from fossil fuels rapidly to achieve the necessary emissions reductions. -
Paul D at 08:02 AM on 8 June 2012Fred Singer Promotes Fossil Fuels through Myths and Misinformation
I'm not convinced that this post is does much other than help publicise the American election campaign. It is a bit reactionary and is Singer/Watts really worth so much effort? Recent surveys support renewables and even higher energy prices. Public (UK) back wind farm subsidies, survey suggests: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-17783604 Willingness to pay and political support for a US national clean energy standard: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate1527.html -
dana1981 at 03:12 AM on 8 June 2012Fred Singer Promotes Fossil Fuels through Myths and Misinformation
Well, although I try not to read WUWT frequently, I do often see posts there devoted exclusively to attacking renewable energy solutions. So in that sense this post wasn't out of character, but the explicit endorsement of Mitt Romney did seem rather out of place. -
KR at 01:51 AM on 8 June 2012Fred Singer Promotes Fossil Fuels through Myths and Misinformation
BWTrainer - A non-CO2 strategy is certainly part of a reasonable approach - the Montreal Protocol and the ensuing CFC reductions have had significant effect. But I would consider those simply a few of the "wedges" (see this thread) that can be used to address the issue. And yes, Watts' inconsistencies re: pollution/not pollution, sun/albedo vs ENSO vs cosmic rays, etc., are quite amusing. Denial isn't about a consistent picture, but rather about lots and lots of noise confusing the issue. This particular Singer post was, however, really out of place, as it's not even bad science - it's not a discussion of the science at all. -
dana1981 at 01:45 AM on 8 June 2012Fred Singer Promotes Fossil Fuels through Myths and Misinformation
Chris G @5 - we've got several posts on the true cost of coal power (for example here) which show that when externalities are accounted for, many renewable energy technologies are already cheaper. The claim about energy bills in this post was specific to US legislation, in which I believe some of the funds from carbon permitting were to be used to offset the costs to individuals for various energy efficiency measures. In other words while there is an up-front cost, much of that cost is paid for through the carbon pricing system. Effectively electricity prices go up to pay for electricity consumption to go down, and in the end the prices approximately offset. The net impact on GDP is generally estimated at closer to 1% than 3% as well. -
dana1981 at 01:38 AM on 8 June 2012Fred Singer Promotes Fossil Fuels through Myths and Misinformation
Climate Progress has a good post today showing that green energy leads to more job creation than fossil fuel energy, which is relevant to this post. -
Chris G at 01:36 AM on 8 June 2012Fred Singer Promotes Fossil Fuels through Myths and Misinformation
Dana (#4), IIRC, the Bush administration was the original propagator of this misrepresentation of Hansen's work regarding non-CO2 forcings. Dr. Hansen was somewhat surprised that they were so interested in what he had said as to want to hear more, until he learned that they had taken away only the part that other forcings matter, and not with the overall conclusion. -
Chris G at 01:29 AM on 8 June 2012Fred Singer Promotes Fossil Fuels through Myths and Misinformation
Re: "...electricity bills would remain essentially unchanged due to the implementation of energy efficiency measures." This sounds a bit like pushing the cost from the use of electricity to the cost of more efficient equipment. Generally, more efficient equipment is more expensive; else, no one would buy the less efficient models. Not that there isn't savings in the long-term. We might as well admit that the reason that we are using fossil fuels is that they are cheaper, at least in direct cost, than any alternative, and that switching to alternatives will increase the cost of energy. There will be knock-on savings in less pollution and improved health. However, I don't think those are easy to quantify. My impression (sorry, no time to look up references at the moment) is that estimates of cost to quit using fossil fuels range from 'It will wreck the economy and throw us back into the stone age.' to 'It it can be done for next to no cost.' I don't think either of these is terribly realistic. The general pattern seems to be that the former conclusions are reached by those with ties to the FF industry, and the latter reached by green groups. Speaking in very round numbers, and blurring distinctions that maybe ought not to be, the FF industry makes up about 7% of the U.S. GDP. If alternatives cost about 1.5x what fossil fuels cost, and using that as a ballpark proxy for energy production in general, energy production might go to 10% of GDP. That somewhat jives with the estimates I recall that came in around the switch costing 3% of GDP (but I can't recall the time-frame.) There really isn't any argument against continued BAU causing devastation and catastrophe sooner or later. So, in a nutshell, the choice comes down to a 3% inhibition in GDP growth or a bottleneck in the human population. It's just really hard to convince people that is the choice before them, and postponing the decision is actually choosing the latter.
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