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Tom Curtis at 01:47 AM on 13 May 2012IPCC graph showing accelerating trends is misleading
Helena @1, we would be more impressed if you did not so obviously have to cherry pick your data points to reach your conclusion. If we in fact take the first 20 years of the HadCRUT3v temperature index, ie, from 1850 to 1870, the linear trend is 0.00238824 C per year. The trend for the first 40 years (1850-1890) is 0.00309971 C per year, showing an increase, not a decrease in the trend. The trend for the first 100 years is 0.00231824 C per year, barely lower than the trend for the first twenty years, and I doubt the difference is statistically significant. Finally, the trend for the first 150 years is 0.00369995 C per year, significantly greater than any of the other three trends examined. As the longest of the start year trends is also the largest trend of those examined, the series certainly does not show deceleration. Even if I plot from the cherry picked start point of 1860, except for 1860-1880, the later the end point of the trends examined, the larger the trend. Again this clearly does not show deceleration. What is more, even the 1860-1880 trend is inconsequential. The data for that period comes almost exclusively from Europe, the North Atlantic and the Eastern US. As such it represents a regional rather than a global temperature, and regional temperatures have larger trends than global temperatures. (Note I used the period 1860-1960 for the 100 year trend to keep the cherry picking to a minimum.) So, contrary to your apparent claim, it is not possible to pick arbitrary end points mimicking the IPCC graph, and to show a deceleration over the temperature record as a result. You have no counter example to the IPCC's procedure. More importantly, your argument entirely misses the more important point that Monckton completely misrepresents the nature of the IPCC's argument premised on the graph in question. Note: trends simply cut and paste from Wood for Trees, and the number of "significant figures" in no way represents a claim of statistical significance. Graph of the trends can be found here. -
Daniel Bailey at 01:42 AM on 13 May 2012Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
As a newcomer, Welcome! Quite frankly, anyone who runs around claiming "fraud!" like Roy does is already 1 foot in wingnutville. Add to that the usual gibberish about "2nd Law" violations and he takes the next step all the way in. Also speaking frankly, your whole linked site is a Gish Gallop of epic proportions. If you would like to select the 1 specific item that you feel Roy's whole case rests upon, do so and someone here will engage you on that. On the appropriate thread. One way to best utilize this site is by looking at the argument structure via taxonomy: http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php?f=taxonomy Or you can just use the Search Function in the UL corner of every page. Just plug in a term like "2nd Law" and you'll get something like this. BTW, Roy is welcome to come here openly. We don't bite. -
Helena at 01:02 AM on 13 May 2012IPCC graph showing accelerating trends is misleading
I dont like Monckton, but he's right on that one .... Here are two assertions : Linear trend fits to the first 20 (1860-1880), 40 (1860-1900), 100 (1850-1950) and for the full 150 years (1860-2010)are shown. Note that for periods ending closer to us, the slope is smaller, indicating decelerated warming. The pace of warming over the full 150years (1860-2011) has been slower than during the first 20, 40, and 100 years of the instrumental record. Are those two assertions wrong ? If they are not, will we get a chance to read them in the next IPCC report ? And in the SPM which also had a sentence comparing the linear warming trend over the last 50 years with the linear trend for the last 100 years and did not put it in perspective with the first 20 years (for example). Of course you cannot compare trends on different time periods.... ! On any given day, the trend from midnight to midday is about 1°C/hour (+/-0.5), which far exceed any global warming trend over any time period you want [1]. I can give show you global cooling too if you want. [1] 1°C/hour = 87 600°C/decade "That the pace of warming over the last 25 years is greater than that in preceding years on the record." How does the trend of the last 25yrs compare with the trend between 1915 and 1940 ? (same 25yrs basis) -
photeki at 00:36 AM on 13 May 2012Increasing CO2 has little to no effect
Hello, I'm new to this place and don't really want to cause any fuss and this may have been covered elsewhere, however I am very interested in all of the topics covered so far. Not wanting to post a link to anything that may be biased whatever a persons personal belief is, I still believe scientific work deserves credit where it is due and discredit if it can be falsified. Please any input on the findings of Roy. Clark on the questioning of radiative forcing models and techniques would be much appreciated. http://venturaphotonics.com/GlobalWarming.html I realize he is very much what you would consider a skeptic but any confirmation of his observations and/or conclusions, contradictions, corrections would be handy. I am currently unaware if he has tried to submit this work for peer review as I doubt he believes the system is currently without faults or bias itself. Thanks -
Flakmeister at 23:56 PM on 12 May 2012New research from last week 18/2012
Came across this http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sciencetoday/2012/0510/1224315839757.html Genetically connecting widely separated Octopus populations with insight into the history of the Western Antartic Ice Shelf... -
Kevin C at 23:10 PM on 12 May 2012Two Centuries of Climate Science: part three - Manabe to the present day, 1966-2012
Thanks John for a concise and very readable series, and also to JG for the wonderful graphics. I've always wanted to find time to read Spencer Weart in full, but never succeeded. This summary is a big contribution. -
michael sweet at 23:07 PM on 12 May 2012Turbines in Texas mix up nighttime heat
Nick, Please provide a reference that shows the wind speed is not part of the temperature. In the College chemistry textbook that I teach from, the temperature of a gas is proportional to its total kinetic energy. To me that would include the wind kinetic energy. I think you separating the wind speed from the temperature is incorrect. There is no energy liberated to convert into heat. Wind generators remove energy from the air. That cannot heat the air. A small fraction of the wind kinetic energy from the atmosphere is turned into heat which is returned to the atmosphere as molecular kinetic energy. In the absence of the generator friction would convert the wind into heat somewhere else when the wind dissipated. My calculation indicates that maximum temperature increase is 0.03C. I doubt real increase could be anywhere near 0.01C for the wind that goes through the generator (although I know little about turbulence), the rest is unaffected. Obviously most of the energy is not trapped or the wind farm would cause the wind to stop in its vicinity. The generator definitely exports 59% of the energy. The OP states that mixing of the atmosphere causes the temperature increase. Mixing can provide all the needed energy, converting wind into heat cannot. -
Nick Stokes at 22:42 PM on 12 May 2012Turbines in Texas mix up nighttime heat
Michael, Yes, I think your second calculation is more convincing. It does say that the temp rise would be less that what is observed. But I think my claim that the energy liberated would be comparable to the elec output is still OK. It sounds like a variant of the problem with the inversion layers. When the turbines are working, there's too much wind for the waste energy to create a temp rise. So for my part, I now don't know what could explain the temp rise. -
michael sweet at 21:51 PM on 12 May 2012Turbines in Texas mix up nighttime heat
Nick, The temperature of the air is related to the square of its root mean square velocity which is 1150 miles/hr for nitrogen at 25C. The kinetic energy of the wind is related to the square of its speed which is say 30 mph on a windy day (the power in the wind is related to the cube of the speed). It seems to me that if all the energy in the wind was converted into heat it would not raise the kinetic energy of the molecules significantly. Possibly a calculation of the heat capacity of the air would be more useful. The specific heat of air is about 1.0 kj/kg. 1 kg of wind at 30 mph has about 80 joules of energy in it. That comes to about .08C increase in temp if 100% of the energy is converted into heat. That means a maximum of 0.03 C temp increase if the wind generator removes 59% the energy. In addition, a wind generator only converts the wind that passes over its blades into energy, since a much larger vertical slice of the atmosphere is moving, most of the energy stays as wind. Can you provide a calculation as to how much you think converting all the wind energy into heat would raise the temperature of the atmosphere? A peer-reviewed citation would be better. Wind generators remove energy from the local atmosphere. They do not provide any energy and cannot heat the atmosphere. The wind motion is part of the measure of temperature. -
Nick Stokes at 20:35 PM on 12 May 2012Turbines in Texas mix up nighttime heat
Or, I should say, 41:59. -
Nick Stokes at 18:18 PM on 12 May 2012Turbines in Texas mix up nighttime heat
Tom and Sphaerica, You can quantify the process. The way any aerofoil generates force is by deflecting a flow. The force is proportional to the mass rate of deflection and the velocity change. The inevitable byproduct is the generation of turbulence, which decays, converting the energy to heat. Wiki has an article on Betz' Law. This says that the best a turbine can do is extract 59.3% of the kinetic energy from the wind. But the key is that in that state, the axial component of the velocity has been reduced to zero. It has been entirely converted to swirl, and can't go anywhere much. Viscosity will convert its KE to heat. Of course total removal of axial velocity is unrealistic, so practical efficiency is less. But the ratio of swirling flow energy to output energy will remain about the same, 59:41. -
SRJ at 07:20 AM on 12 May 2012New research from last week 12/2012
About the Kilifarska paper: Climate sensitivity to the lower stratospheric ozone variations - Kilifarska (2012) In my opinion this paper is very bad, and is based on bad statistical analysis. None of the equations 1-4 seems to be based on physical insight, but only on what gives a good fit (unless I have missed something). And the same variable is used several times, scaled with seemingly arbitrary constants and raised to higher powers, eg. equation 1 giving the relationship between annual NH land temperature and annual ozone level reads: LandT = b0 + b1*TOZ11^2 + b2*(TOZ11/11)^3+b3*(TOZ11/37)^4+b4*TOZ*TOZ11 + b5*(TOZ/22)^3 + b6*(TOZ/35)^4 where TOZ = total ozone level and TOZ11 = 11 years running mean of total ozone level I.e. variables smoothed with moving averages are used in the regression - according to Briggs and Tamino that is bad practice. Using a very similar model to equation 1 but for annual CO2 concentration I can get a even better fit (measured by R^2) to the NH land temp than Kilifarska does. In my model just replace TOZ with annual CO2 and TOZ11 with annual CO2 smoothed with 11 year running mean, and finally use also the annual co2 concentation as regressor. But that is just another meaningless regression, just like Kilifarska's. Unless I have missed the point and misunderstood the methods, I think that the paper is pointless -
davesouza at 03:55 AM on 12 May 2012Why Are We Sure We're Right? #2
Hi Rob, don't want to go too much offtopic here, but I think you're wrong about one thing. In commenting on an Amazon review of Mann's "The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars" you said that "'Mike's Nature trick' was merely adding on the modern temperature record to the proxy reconstruction. Mann just happened to be the first researcher to do that. The results were published in the journal Nature." As discussed on pages 39-40 of the book, in 1993 Raymond S. Bradley and Phil Jones published a Northern Hemisphere reconstruction, using a "composite-plus-scale" method to combine the proxies and relate them to the modern instrumental record, and this featured in the IPCC SAR. It's worth looking at the SAR, the graph shows this decadal summer temperature reconstruction together with a separate curve plotting instrumental thermometer data from the 1850s onwards. As far as I can tell, Mike's "Nature Trick" was different in that he used a different methodology to relate the proxies to the instrumental record. Unfortunate phrasing by Jones, and this specific point doesn't seem to be covered by explanations as far as I can recall. -
Andy Skuce at 03:44 AM on 12 May 2012Alberta’s bitumen sands: “negligible” climate effects, or the “biggest carbon bomb on the planet”?
Helena@22: The wealth that you say is generated by oil (or equivalent) requires many other inputs (materials, human effort, etc). In any case, that GDP wealth accrues to the consumer of the oil, not the producer as your argument @20 implied. Certainly, the business of producing bitumen is a profitable one at current prices and it is especially so when the negative externalities are not paid for by consumers or producers. Bitumen production is already a significant part of the Canadian economy and, if production doubles and triples over the years to come, then it will become increasingly more important. Climate issues aside, I worry about my country becoming increasingly dependent on a single resource extraction industry in a world economy that is changing so rapidly. @25 Just because nobody can say with any confidence what the ultimate substitutes for oil will be, it doesn't mean there won't be any. I'm sure the whalers didn't see Colonel Drake coming with his cheap mineral oil, nor did buggy-whip manufacturers foresee Henry Ford. -
michael sweet at 03:07 AM on 12 May 2012Turbines in Texas mix up nighttime heat
I do not understand the discussion of wind generators heating up the atmosphere. Wind is motion of molecules and is part of the atmospheres heat budget. Wind generators do not add any waste energy to the system, they remove energy from the system. Any heat in the generator came from the atmosphere in the first place and does not heat the air when it returns. They affect the atmosphere locally by converting kinetic energy into electricity that they export. Since energy is exported the local system is cooled. According to the OP they heat the surface by mixing hot air downwards during the night. Overall the atmosphere would be cooler since energy is removed. That energy would be returned to the atmosphere as waste heat when the electricity is used. The reduction of the airs' velocity is just conversion of one form of energy in the atmosphere into another. The root mean square speed of nitrogen at 25C is 1150 miles/hour (515 m/s). Adding a little bit of wind speed would make little difference in the temperature. Where have I made a mistake? -
Tom Curtis at 00:59 AM on 12 May 2012Turbines in Texas mix up nighttime heat
Sphaerica @19, I would not be so immediately dismissive of Nick's idea. Turbulence does result in reduced air velocity, and the energy of that reduced air velocity must be preserved as heat. Where Nick's hypothesis is not plausible is in assuming that if 50% of the wind's energy is captured by the turbine, the remainder of its energy will be released as heat as the result of turbulence. I suspect that a 50% efficient wind turbine captures 50% of the wind energy in the area of its blades - not the swept area of its blades meaning that most of winds energy is neither captured nor lost to turbulence. Given that, it is possible that an amount is lost to turbulence equivalent to the amount captured. Having said that, I agree that hand waving arguments are irrelevant. They need to be placed into a mathematical form to render them more precise. Should Nick desire to do so (and I know he has the mathematical ability), the relevant equations are discussed by Science of Doom, Wikipedia, and in the linked UCLA lecture notes. -
70rn at 00:58 AM on 12 May 2012Turbines in Texas mix up nighttime heat
@ Sphaerica. You may find yourself having to make that point rather regularly over coming months, I suspect. -
Composer99 at 00:46 AM on 12 May 2012Alberta’s bitumen sands: “negligible” climate effects, or the “biggest carbon bomb on the planet”?
From Helena #25: On your first point, what's the alternative to oil ? Electricity ? That means massive infrastructure investments, and a complete change of paradigm. That's maybe what you wish, but the cheapest, easiest and most likely solution is that we'll stick to oil for still quite some time (even at high prices, because there is no alternative that efficient and energy dense Given the consequences of continued dependence on fossil fuel combustion, any disruption resulting from making the switch will be less significant and less destructive than sticking to oil "for quite some time". In any case, I do not see massive infrastructure investments to de-carbonize our societies as undue burdens. Rather, they are opportunities for entrepreneurial agents to make money (and such massive investments will surely require much labour, which I expect would attenuate or even outweigh unemployment resulting from declining fossil fuel exploitation). -
shoyemore at 23:47 PM on 11 May 2012Two Centuries of Climate Science: part three - Manabe to the present day, 1966-2012
I hvae a dream in which Manabe and Wetherald are awarded a Nobel Prize for their 1967 paper. It was the first model that described the greenhouse effect in an atmosphere with convection. All subsequent climate science is in their shadow. In terms of important papers, it is surely one of the highest ever written. Perhaps James Hansen, the first to publicly announce the observing of global warming, would share the award. -
Bob Lacatena at 23:46 PM on 11 May 2012Turbines in Texas mix up nighttime heat
18, Nick, I think you are grossly over-guesstimating the amount of heat released. You have broken the model into two components... wind energy converted to power, and the remnant converted to heat. Clearly this is grossly over-simplified, but more importantly it is completely unquantified. Your argument amounts to "it seems to me." The Internet is rife with such "thought experiments" which put together a few simple concepts, gloss over all of the details, and arrive at "it's obvious that..." I think that unless you are able to properly, mathematically estimate the amount of heat actually generated by each turbine, your suppositions are merely that... suppositions. Personally, the idea of a temperature inversion drawing down warmth from higher altitudes is substantially more likely than such a large amount of excess heat being generated through inefficiency. And even if it is... it's still not actual warming. The energy was already in the system. It's not a net change, just a redistribution. The whole question of the source of the heat is rather pointless (except to an engineer who is concerned with mitigating its local effects). This study says zero about climate change, or the impact of wind farms on climate change. -
Nick Stokes at 22:49 PM on 11 May 2012Turbines in Texas mix up nighttime heat
70m Night time does create a thermal stratification of a given air column - with warmer above and cooler below. Yes, on a calm night. But then how can a turbine mix? I think any wind strong enough to turn the blades would have already mixed the air. Riccardo It does not produce waste heat, the energy remains as kinetic energy of the wind. I believe it does. The drag on any aerofoil is the result of linear momentum being converted to angular and shed as vortices. Those vortices (turbulence) decay through viscous effects, releasing heat. Kevin, My understanding is that direct heat release is a big part of UHI. But I don't currently have a source for that. -
les at 18:33 PM on 11 May 2012Alberta’s bitumen sands: “negligible” climate effects, or the “biggest carbon bomb on the planet”?
26 - Regarding moving to cars. From Horse Power to Horsepower, by Eric Morris is worth a read. In summary; the environmental impact from widespread horse usage neared catastrophic levels before the car became viable and, in part, drove the commercialisation of the car. Now the environmental impact from cars (etc.) will drive new innovation... and new commercial opportunities. -
Riccardo at 18:11 PM on 11 May 2012Alberta’s bitumen sands: “negligible” climate effects, or the “biggest carbon bomb on the planet”?
Automobiles were not cheaper than horses, but this is irrelevant as far as the reasoning Helena is supporting (or fearing) is concerned. We should fear it because not always (at best) short term convenience is the best choice, more so when a long term global problem, like the energetic structure of our societies, is involved. -
Helena at 16:27 PM on 11 May 2012Alberta’s bitumen sands: “negligible” climate effects, or the “biggest carbon bomb on the planet”?
"You would just as well argue that we should not have moved to automobiles until all the horses on the planet had died. " People moved to automobiles because they were cheaper, more convenient, and more energy dense. And horses haven't disappeared, they're just used for other less primary purposes. Like oil, if you find a better source (which is on the case yet), it will still get exploited for other uses. -
Helena at 16:19 PM on 11 May 2012Alberta’s bitumen sands: “negligible” climate effects, or the “biggest carbon bomb on the planet”?
Sphaerica : On your first point, what's the alternative to oil ? Electricity ? That means massive infrastructure investments, and a complete change of paradigm. That's maybe what you wish, but the cheapest, easiest and most likely solution is that we'll stick to oil for still quite some time (even at high prices, because there is no alternative that efficient and energy dense). On your second point, good to know that, by taking the lowest of the two figures and dividing it by 100years, you stil get 50 billion $ per year and manage to say that this is a small figure. Just a reminder : Canada is about 35 million people, so if it were the US (per capita) it would be equivalent to 500 billions dollars par year. Does it look like a small figure ? 50 billions $ is 3% of their GDP and 25% of the annual government expenditures. -
Chemware at 15:59 PM on 11 May 2012Tom Harris' Carleton University Climate Misinformation Class
Hmmmnnn. Carlton Uni is has dropped about 100 places in the academic rankings over the last decade. I wonder if their Senate will do anything to reverse this trend, given that The Senate is the final academic authority on campus and as such makes decisions of significant importance to students and faculty ... approving new programs and revised curriculum. -
chriskoz at 15:21 PM on 11 May 2012Tom Harris' Carleton University Climate Misinformation Class
Yes, Dave123. I think you are right in your assessment that in case of any inquiry into the ethics at Carleton, Tom Harris would likely play an innocent fool discharging any responsibility to others. Such attitude would be consistent with the attitude he has shown in this thread so far. Please note that (according to the audio link supplied by Tom above), Professor Tim Patterson is the originator of the course, which he thought since 2009. Tim is currently on sabatical and Tom is just replacing his position, and teaches "essentially the same" material Tim used to teach earlier. So, should we be enquiring after Tim here, instead? Coincidently, this is a small proof of Dave123's and my assessment. Moderators, please snip the final "Ja!" word (implying offensive ideology) from comment 28 and then delete this sentence on mine. Thanks. -
Dave123 at 13:55 PM on 11 May 2012Tom Harris' Carleton University Climate Misinformation Class
I would suggest to all that Mr. Harris game is not to engage but to have just enough material to show his political base. He has in a way provided an answer to all scientific questions: He taught the course material as approved by college and implicitely has no obligation to defend or explain that material. Let's see if this doesn't get moderated: {snip}Moderator Response:TC: Offensive comment snipped.
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skywatcher at 11:54 AM on 11 May 2012Tom Harris' Carleton University Climate Misinformation Class
#25 Muoncounter, that is terribly sad reading. One should always remember the trust that students frequently have of the material presented in lecturing classes. #24 Dan, I have taught outside my sphere of expertise at a university, but I always taught the accepted position on a point. Crucially, there's a massive difference between: 1: Being a non-expert and teaching the generally-accepted scientific position on a subject. 2: Being a non-expert and teaching material that runs contrary to nearly all expert opinion on a subject. In the case of (1), you are inflicting upon your students the same knowledge that a world expert would teach in your position. In the case of (2), you have no idea where and why your amateur opinion is different to that of the experts, and so you will not know where and why you may be wrong, precisely because you are not an expert and so have not learned the pitfalls of your subject. It's clear that (2) applies to Tom Harris here. That such obvious fallacies and pitfalls in the substance of the material reached the classroom is troubling. That trusting students then considered this expert knowledge worth remembering is frightening. It is very revealing that both here and at Open Mind, Harris is failing to answer any points of substance where he is (and to an expert, very obviously) demonstrably wrong. Tom Harris, can you please answer Dikran Marsupial's question at #7 in this thread? You are being challenged on solid points of substance and coming up with nothing but fresh air. -
muoncounter at 11:33 AM on 11 May 2012Turbines in Texas mix up nighttime heat
It wasn't that long ago that the concern in the pseudo-skeptic world was wind turbines would slow the wind and even the earth's rotation. For some much needed relief, see Climate Crocks. -
muoncounter at 11:21 AM on 11 May 2012Tom Harris' Carleton University Climate Misinformation Class
One has to wonder why Carleton couldn't find a geologist to teach this Earth Science course, opting instead for a lobbyist with "28 years experience in science and technology in the energy and environment, aerospace and high-tech sectors." Harris was, until approximately late October 2006, listed as a Director of Operations of the Ottawa office of the High Park Group (HPG), a Canadian PR and lobbying firm. His biographical note states that he "specializes in strategic communication and media relations But the damage is already done. Read the student ratings here. Examples: - I was and remain an environmentalist but this class has opened my eyes to REALITY. A real scientific view of climate change. Lets focus our attention and expenses on issues that are of real concern to this planet and on issues that we actually can influence. - Great to hear a prof going against the grain, presenting us with information to make up our own minds on such an important topic! - Great to hear alternative perspectives on climate change and to get away from the global warming dogma for a bit. Not sure if a believe it or not but very interesting all the same. Keep the debate alive! and always question the church of science. Apparently "reality" "goes against the grain" of the "dogma" in "church of science." Lovely. -
Dan at 10:58 AM on 11 May 2012Tom Harris' Carleton University Climate Misinformation Class
A side issue: this is just my opinion, so it is OK to brush it off... I'm glad to see his errors (and apparent purpose) exposed. But, while it is important to point out to students taking the course that the real science is certainly lacking, and inform the administrators privately if you choose, it seems to me to be uncalled for to judge the university's "poor" choice of who to hire. Hundreds of courses are taught by instructors with little central experience. Re: training... Ok, he is teaching nonsense in some areas, but that is his personal choice, not related to his lack of knowledge. Also, "zero experience" is a personal judgement that does not seem to fit the facts. I would say he has some experience (mainly advocacy) with agencies on the non-science side of the topic, and has some quantitative background that could have been useful. Some other instructors are also qualified only obliquely, as for example a geologist or ecologist might be asked to teach Soil Science. Harris has done a lot of reading and communicating, I think, although probably not with a truly skeptical or scientific mindset. So I'm just saying that it would be better to stick to the errors and falsehoods in his presented material. On he other hand, if Harris has made inflated claims about himself, then correcting those is the right thing to do. -
uknowispeaksense at 09:17 AM on 11 May 2012Tom Harris' Carleton University Climate Misinformation Class
My concern in this is for the students, and not just from a misinformation point of view, but also for those who actually know that what they are being taught is garbage, but might feel too intimidated to say so. Will they feel pressure to produce what they know is substandard work to ensure a good mark? Will those who refute Harris' position and produce quality work receive fair and proper treatment?Let's nor forget that once a student suffers a decline in GPA, it is really difficult to make it up and that can affect their ability to go on to post-grad research and subsequently, their careers. Finally, what the hell were Carleton thinking? What next, {snip}Moderator Response: TC: Inflammatory comment snipped. -
KR at 09:11 AM on 11 May 2012Turbines in Texas mix up nighttime heat
tmac57 - Agreed; I find the contradiction between "we are too small to affect climate" and the "windmills are dangerous influences on climate" nonsenses terribly ironic... -
Bob Lacatena at 08:50 AM on 11 May 2012Alberta’s bitumen sands: “negligible” climate effects, or the “biggest carbon bomb on the planet”?
Concerning your last point (5 trillion dollars)... but how long might it take for them to exploit all of that oil? 30 years? 50 years? 100 years? So your number really could be as little as $50 billion per year. Peanuts. You can make any number look big by rolling it up into one over time. The reality is that the current owners -- the individuals -- of fossil fuel resources do stand to lose large sums if they don't get to exploit and sell those resources. But society as a whole loses nothing if we successfully supplant those resources before completely consuming them. You would just as well argue that we should not have moved to automobiles until all the horses on the planet had died. -
Bob Lacatena at 08:46 AM on 11 May 2012Alberta’s bitumen sands: “negligible” climate effects, or the “biggest carbon bomb on the planet”?
Helena, You're playing fast and loose with concepts. What you're saying is that the use of energy generates income. Really? Big surprise. But $50 worth of energy from any source will generate that same income. Canada does not earn more by using their own oil. And it's not like they lose $75 trillion if they fail to exploit their oil. They only lose it if they fail to exploit that oil and completely ignore the availability of any alternative energy. The point of your argument is completely empty. -
Helena at 07:54 AM on 11 May 2012Alberta’s bitumen sands: “negligible” climate effects, or the “biggest carbon bomb on the planet”?
Andy : The 5000$ per toe is the average energy intensity. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_energy_intensity Sure 50$ is the price of one barrel, but that's not the wealth it generates. It obvisouly generates much more money than it costs. And actually that's what energy efficiency policies are all about : getting one unit of GDP with less energy, or, in other words, generating more wealth from a given amount of energy. PS : At 50$ a barrel (which is an extreme minimum), you already get 5 trillion dollars, which represents 3 full years of Canadian GDP (i.e total production). -
Andy Skuce at 07:19 AM on 11 May 2012Alberta’s bitumen sands: “negligible” climate effects, or the “biggest carbon bomb on the planet”?
Helena: $75 trillion value for 100 billion barrels is $750 per barrel. I'm not sure where you got the $5000 per toe GDP figure from. I think that bitumen sells for about 1/10th of that currently, before deduction of supply costs (about $20 per barrel). Perhaps a more realistic value figure would be approximately $50 per barrel. Indeed, there's a lot of money to be made from producing bitumen(although not nearly as much as you say) and the current governments of Canada and Alberta are planning to exploit the resources as fast as they can. -
Philippe Chantreau at 06:55 AM on 11 May 2012Tom Harris' Carleton University Climate Misinformation Class
The inevitable conclusion would be that Mr Harris has nothing of scientific substance to address criticisms but let's wait. Perhaps he will prove otherwise. -
tmac57 at 06:30 AM on 11 May 2012Turbines in Texas mix up nighttime heat
Wait,wasn't it the AGW 'skeptics' that also made the claim that: "Humans are too insignificant to affect global climate"? -
Tsumetai at 06:03 AM on 11 May 2012Tom Harris' Carleton University Climate Misinformation Class
Harris has posted the same two comments over at Tamino's blog. So no, doesn't look like he's actually engaging at all. -
CBDunkerson at 04:56 AM on 11 May 2012Tom Harris' Carleton University Climate Misinformation Class
Given that Mr. Harris included virtually identical sentences in #2 & #17 it seems likely that he isn't really reading the thread / taking part in the discussion so much as copy and pasting talking points. -
Helena at 04:18 AM on 11 May 2012Alberta’s bitumen sands: “negligible” climate effects, or the “biggest carbon bomb on the planet”?
Reserves : 100 billion barrels is 15*10^9 toe. Energy intensity : 1 toe produces 5 000 dollars of wealth (GDP). => 15*10^9 toe = 75 trillion dollars. That's a potential 20 000$ dollars of wealth per year and per Canadian over 100 years. My guess is that they'll exploit it. -
John Hartz at 04:15 AM on 11 May 2012West Antarctic Ice Shelves Tearing Apart at the Seams
Here's the journal reference for the information contained in my post #7: J. M. Strugnell, P. C. Watts, P. J. Smith, A. L. Allcock. "Persistent genetic signatures of historic climatic events in an Antarctic octopus", Molecular Ecology, 2012; DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-294X.2012.05572.x -
Composer99 at 04:15 AM on 11 May 2012Tom Harris' Carleton University Climate Misinformation Class
muoncounter: The quotes given are from videos of the lectures given taken by Carleton staff for the benefit of students. -
70rn at 04:11 AM on 11 May 2012Turbines in Texas mix up nighttime heat
This is why I lean towards the mixing argument - I cannot see how the blades' motion will translate into heat capable of a measurable temperature change for kilometres, or tens of kilometres about the farms. I do concede that the windy area would be reasonably mixed as well. All i can suggest is that (possibly) the resultant turbulence directs air flow into colder hollows and valleys down-slope that are other wise relatively sheltered, displacing the cooler air and giving a warmer than average surface reading. Obviously I present this tentively - pure speculation. -
John Hartz at 03:53 AM on 11 May 2012West Antarctic Ice Shelves Tearing Apart at the Seams
More troubling news about the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet... “Scientists at the University of Liverpool have found that genetic information on the Antarctic octopus supports studies indicating that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could have collapsed during its history, possibly as recently as 200,000 years ago. Source: “Antarctic octopuses 10,000km apart “genetically similar”, University News, University of Liverpool, May 9, 2012 -
dana1981 at 03:38 AM on 11 May 2012Tom Harris' Carleton University Climate Misinformation Class
Tom Harris - our interest is not in the feedback you got on your class, it's on the accuracy of its content. Dikran Marsupial has asked a very specific question about your supposed claims about the source of the atmospheric CO2 increase, for example. Commenters - please refain from directing any more questions to Tom Harris until he has answered Dikran Marsupial's question. We don't want to overwhelm Tom with too many inquiries. -
Sapient Fridge at 03:36 AM on 11 May 2012101 responses to Ian Plimer's climate questions
monkeyorchid, technically the O2 from photosynthesis is produced by splitting water rather than from CO2. The end result is the same though, CO2 is absorbed and O2 released, so apologies in advance for my pedantry :-) I thought the answers were pretty good, though I think they could have given a clearer explanation of warming seas releasing CO2 in some questions e.g. 77 -
Dikran Marsupial at 03:35 AM on 11 May 2012Tom Harris' Carleton University Climate Misinformation Class
Tom Harris, I am glad that you are joining the discussion here. I would be very grateful if you could answer the question I posted here relating to a scientific issue forming part of the content of your course.
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