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Comments 59251 to 59300:

  1. CBDunkerson at 23:23 PM on 1 May 2012
    Climate Scientists take on Richard Lindzen
    The New York Times has inexplicably published a cogent and thorough look at the state of AGW 'skepticism' with particular emphasis on Lindzen's 'cloud iris' hypothesis and clouds in general as being the 'last bastion' of uncertainty for 'skeptics' to hang their hat on. Oddly, I didn't see any egregious errors of fact or ludicrous convolutions in the name of providing 'balance'. It was almost as if they were reporting... news. Accurately. I've heard stories of such things from the olden days, but it is quite a surprise to see it in the here and now. Are unicorns also real?
  2. Richard Alley - We Can Afford Clean Energy
    Bernard j While we use the metric of CO2 per person, there is no disadvantage for a country to increase its population. Which masks the fact as you point out, how will we all fit. I would like to think we has the intelligence to control our population instead of waiting for nature to step in and control it for us, but the only creature with such sense is a lemming, and unfortunately that lemming behavior is a myth.
  3. Daniel Bailey at 22:48 PM on 1 May 2012
    It's satellite microwave transmissions
    Fascinating, the way this thread has come to resemble the waste energy thread.
  4. Ari Jokimäki at 22:39 PM on 1 May 2012
    New research from last week 17/2012
    Fixed, thanks.
  5. It's satellite microwave transmissions
    skywatcher Do you see that the tropopause could be used as a parabola for reflection And also the way to increase the output of radio frequencies is as simple as building a bigger antenna aray and there's not much bigger then HAARP's ionispheric heater To create fire using water all you need is a clear plastic bag put in a cup of water manipulate the bag to form the water into a ball or freeze slowly so no bubbles form and you get the same effect magnification I see you didn't post anything about lower atmospheric electron discharge and cloud formation is it your belief that this is not taking place ?
  6. It's satellite microwave transmissions
    jmorpuss, you've a lot to learn about conservation of energy, among many other things. To take your last statement - yes, you can use a lens of water to concentrate energy (e.g. from the Sun) to incinerate objects, but this process concentrates the energy formerly spread over a larger area onto a very small spot, leading to intense heating at that point. Locations next to the spot of intense heating are heated less than they would otherwise be without the lens in place, as the lens diverts the incident rays towards the spot of intense heating - thus this is not the long-sought-after perpetual motion machine, and there is no creation of energy going on. Otherwise the humble lens could provide all the energy we ever needed! Similarly, 0.000005W/m2 cannot provide the same input of energy as the 1.6W/m2 anthropogenic forcing, however you concentrate it. Why would you want to invent some impossible physics in order to explain the effects of already well-understood physics?
  7. John Nielsen-Gammon Comments on Continued Global Warming
    Old Mole. See sout@1. "....the latest (24 April 12) ENSO wrap up from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology states: "Some, but not all, climate models note an increased risk of El Niño conditions evolving during winter or spring. Historically, about 70% of two-year La Niña events are followed by neutral or El Niño phases." So the likelihood according to BOM is 70% that this year will be neutral or El Nino if it follows the historical patterns.
  8. John Nielsen-Gammon Comments on Continued Global Warming
    dana @ 15 Question for you ... it appears that we cannot predict with any certainty whether there will be an El Nino, La Nina, or a an ENSO neutral year. I realize that uncertainty is not the same thing as true randomness, but what leads you to believe that a third La Nina after two previous ones is less likely than otherwise, any more than the odds of flipping a true coin heads for the tenth time after nine previous heads would be any less than 50%? Do you believe that there is a pattern, and we simply haven't figured it out yet, and what leads you to that conclusion? Best wishes, Mole
  9. New research from last week 17/2012
    The anders (1882) full text link appears to direct me to the Castebrubet et al (2012) paper. Unless I'm doing it wrong or summmin.
  10. It's satellite microwave transmissions
    Scaddenp How many free electrons do you think would be released from the hot spots that are created by this process http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/IONO/Dynasonde/images/HeatPrecip.pdf And if you overlay this info onto transequateral communications and the hot spots that are created there would be the same result Now these lower atmospheric electron clouds that form have a high negative charge and would through magnetic atraction collect dust particls and moisture to form clouds And to clear things up a bit about radio waves are capable of temperature effects out of all proportions to the energy input Two words amplification and magnification man puts them to great use Do you know that you can use water as a magnifier to create fire
  11. John Nielsen-Gammon Comments on Continued Global Warming
    dagold - The 'hiatus' periods are the ENSO events (heat going more/less into the oceans rather than the atmosphere), so this analysis speaks directly to that variation. With respect to aerosols, declines in insolation and the like, keep in mind that CO2 forcing is increasing faster than exponential right now, meaning GHG forcing is greater than linear in rise. I suspect that forcing balances out dimming and insolation to such an extent that it's going to be difficult to isolate anything more complex than linear temperature increases - given the noise level in the surface temperature signal. At least, not without a longer period...
  12. It's satellite microwave transmissions
    jmorpuss, just to be clear. It seems to me, (and please correct me if I am wrong), that you are claiming that radio waves are capable of temperature effects out of all proportion to the energy input. To have the effect you claim would violate energy conservation. You put up links to perfectly well known science which I think you believe backs your claim, but I cannot see how this is so. I believe you have some serious misconceptions but since I cant even follow you line of argument.
  13. John Nielsen-Gammon Comments on Continued Global Warming
    I am wondering how this study of ENSO effect 'speaks to' the impact of aerosal dampening and/or 700-2000 deep 'hiatus' periods vis-a-vis surface temps? Do the findings somehow account for the 'missing' heat of the last 10-13 or so years or is it simply that all 3 plots (La Nina, ENSO neutral, and El Nino) would be 'shifted higher' without the aerosal and/or ocean hiatus effects?
  14. It's satellite microwave transmissions
    I'm still lost. What has that link got to do with anything on climate? You do accept that conservation of energy applied in that experiment?
  15. Richard Alley - We Can Afford Clean Energy
    Realist, remember that projection for lower population growth are based on the observed trends in declining fertility. This is discussed in the reports behind those projections.
  16. It's satellite microwave transmissions
    KR That would be a good idear It would be a relief from the parroting that goes round and round on this site As the debunking hand book says there's no such thing as bad publicity The more that read it the better Radio waves exite the oxygen molecule to propagate and when you shift into microwave frequencies this can happen http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrUqR0LO7k8&NR=1
  17. It's satellite microwave transmissions
    I first saw KR @11's comment, and as a moderator, was going to delete it as ad hominen. I then saw jmorpuss @8, and was torn because it should be deleted on the same grounds, but as the person subject to the ad hominen, I had a conflict of interest. I shall take DSL @9's excellent advise and compromise by leaving both up. In the meantime I shall enjoy the jest that my failure to notice jmorpus massive error which strengthened his case represents me pushing propaganda. ROFLMAO
  18. John Nielsen-Gammon Comments on Continued Global Warming
    A good idea in a future post might be to define what constitutes ENSO, as there are different measures. From Peru (#7) cites ONI, the 3-month running mean of the 3.4 region. John Nielsen-Gammon also uses the 3.4 region, but with 12-month averages and a lag. F&R did the same calculations with MEI and SOI. While all correlate (SOI inversely), SOI is notably different in that the 2009-2010 el Nino-ish conditions are very mild (weaker than 2005) and the recent couple of years of la Ninas are collectively the most intense in the 60-year record. F&R I think determined the conclusions of their study don't change when using either measure, but it's relevant in putting 2010-present in context. What I like about the Nielsen-Gammon approach, that while less precise and comprehensive than F&R, it's an easy-to-understand visual. There's no real "black box" effect among a lay audience wondering how adjusted temperatures are done. Temperature during la Nina years are trending warmer too.
  19. It's satellite microwave transmissions
    DSL - I think we need a "So bad you have to read it to believe it" thread with content such as jmorpuss's latest.
  20. Richard Alley - We Can Afford Clean Energy
    @37 Speaking more locally, Australia has 21 million and the capacity to feed about 40 million. It is also forecast by the government to have a population of 40 million by 2050, despite the current trajectory being in excess of 40 million by then. Which means australia goes from a major exporter of food to a nett importer of food. There goes sustralias second biggest export industry. Where the import of food will come from is not considered by the government, nor is the food supply for those overseas currently eating Australian food. And this is before farm land is converted to bio diesel crops or tree farms for carbon capture. Additionally all major states in Australia have desalination plants for water supply. And desal is energy hungry. So will be difficult to address climate change in the future when there are other pressing problems caused by an expanding population, and we have seen how the GFC distracts from climate change. there is also the embodied co2 in providing infrastructure for an expanded population.
  21. It's satellite microwave transmissions
    So revised figure would be 0.000005W/m2. Margin of error territory big time. If radio makes that much difference, with that power, then why so little response to the variation of 1W/m2 of solar radiation over the 11 year cycle? "pushing your propaganda" - which propoganda is that? That radio transmission must be less than primary energy production? That 0.000005 is a smaller no. than 1? You have repeatedly posted links to ips TEP but have just as repeatedly failed to show how this has any relevance to climate at all.
  22. It's satellite microwave transmissions
    I implore the other mods to leave jmorpuss' comment up. It is an absolute classic in every way (even formally -- no punctuation!). Head vise malfunction! Auuughhh!
  23. muoncounter at 12:14 PM on 1 May 2012
    It hasn't warmed since 1998
    hutch44uk: "The argument wasn't about warming purely from non-ENSO sources." The argument is about determining whether or not there is continued warming. You choose to start your analysis from an anomaly and that artificial selection allows you to declare there is no statistically significant trend. A more objective analysis would look at all the data. A more informed and thorough analysis would process the data as FR2011 did or separate the signals as Nielsen-Gammon did, in order to detect the underlying trend. To ignore these analytical methods is to focus on the noise rather than the signal. But focusing on noise is the key component of denial these days, isn't it?
  24. It's satellite microwave transmissions
    Tom thanks for taking the time to respond It's just a shame that you did not read what I wrote Because if you did you would have pointed out my maths was incorect 27,000 x 100,000 = 2.7 billion not 271 billion Your haste in pushing your propaganda will only show how brain washed you are or are you paid to brain wash others Is this the reason for the atmospheric tropical hot spot transequatoral communications LINK This man made pathway looks to me to be the cause of el and la nino It flips from one hemisphere to the other when they reverse the polarity
    Moderator Response: [RH] Embedded link that was breaking page format.
  25. John Nielsen-Gammon Comments on Continued Global Warming
    Hmmmph. John N-G used the exactly process I employed a while back to determine the likely magnitude of the next global temperature record. I even constructed a graph with the three regressions, an an x-marks-the-spot for Pinatubo. Guess I shouldn't have hidden that little light under a bushel. I like the animation. Perhaps it might be possible to add a sequence at the end where you drop out in turn two of the three regressions, so that observers can 'see' the jump from La Niña to El Niño.
  26. Richard Alley - We Can Afford Clean Energy
    Dave123
    The part I'm less optimistic about is our ability to move towards self-restraint.
    I wholeheartedly concur. The fact is, if we'd taken Kyoto seriously, and acted on the advice of science then, we'd probably have a far more prosperous global economy than we have now, and one that was actually moving to a real sustainability. The window's not entirely shut, but squeezing through it now would require an Indiana Jones level of acrobatics. Realist. On the matter of eventual maximum population I have to agree with the general estimate of a peak around 9 to 10 billion. Growth curves were my bread and butter for 4 years, and even aside from the geometry of the growth trajectory there are resource limitations and disease issues that strongly suggest that humans don't have much relative overshoot left above today's population. Having said that, an extra few billion people on the planet at a time in the not-too-distant future, when we probably won't adequately have sorted out our climate and energy issues is still no laughing matter.
  27. It hasn't warmed since 1998
    Tom, I stand corrected to the extent that Carter is being honest and open with regards to the intent of the publication (such as it was) of his analysis. If his dodgy methodology was an honest mistake and not an attempt to force the data into a politically palatable message for his target audience, well I humbly apologize to all involved.
  28. Richard Alley - We Can Afford Clean Energy
    @35 Much of the heat content in slag is due to the solid to liquid formation which is not recovered in the channel system. The percentage heat recovery is low, and thus restricts viability. Not impossible, but a fair way down on the list of potential solutions.
  29. Richard Alley - We Can Afford Clean Energy
    Realist @31, I grew up in mining towns. I know what slag is. I've even played on slag heaps, and worked in smelters and power plants. It is perfectly possible run slag along a channel in its molten state, and run water in pipes above the slag to pick up heat. It would be important to ensure the length of the channel is such that the slag does not solidify before reaching the end of the channel, however, at the end you can run it down a steep channel (so that it continues to fall if solidified) which ends in a drop into water to recover the remaining heat. It may be necessary to use a water spray to ensure the slag is solidifies during the drop. A conveyor "belt" can run through the water to take the solidified waste up out of the water and away for disposal. Hot water in the tank could be circulated to preheat entering the boiler. None of this is technically difficult, and the technical problems are ones which are solved already in disposing of slag, or in using the lumpy solid called "coal" in boilers (and disposing of the even lumpier clinkers that result from burning coal in a boiler). There is a significant question as to whether it is economically feasible, but if it is not, it is only because the cost of the energy going into the slag, and hence to waste, is low.
  30. Richard Alley - We Can Afford Clean Energy
    @33 I don't have the source at hand, but it was based on the population increasing slightly more than 3 fold over the 20th century, and today's growth rate is not far removed from that trend. While I agree it is a higher end estimate, lower estimates are premised on assumptions that circumstances and human behaviour will change. In many ways it's hope for the best and plan for the worst. In that regard carefully monitor the current trend and project at that rate.
  31. Richard Alley - We Can Afford Clean Energy
    Realist - I dont disagree with your general drift but I think you are overly pessimistic. My sources are: UN and US Census. While projection is difficult there is an enormous difference between population increasing by 3B and your estimate of 14B which you still havent provided a source for.
  32. Richard Alley - We Can Afford Clean Energy
    @31 Slag is a lumpy viscous crusty molten mess, a bit like lava, and solidifies on cooling. It's not easy to handle and to attempt to pump it and pass it through heat exchangers would result in an almost instantaneous blockage. Ie cooling means solidifying.
  33. Richard Alley - We Can Afford Clean Energy
    What is the issue with the slag? Why not use it to heat water either to preheat water entering a boiler, or to boil the water initially, and in either way recover the heat for power generation?
  34. Richard Alley - We Can Afford Clean Energy
    Dave123 Probably an easier starting point is the coal to iron ore ratio ie a basic heat and mass balance. It used to be about 2 coal to 1 iron ore, but its about 1 to 1 with modern blast furnaces, depending on many variables. However a credit against the heat in the slag could taken if the slag was used in concrete to reduce cement content.
  35. It hasn't warmed since 1998
    DSL @189, I have not strictly refuted the contention of a strawman argument. It is logically conceivable that when Carter claims the atmosphere is cooling in the quote I provided that he refers only to the period from early 2010 to 2011, ie, to a period featuring a transition from a moderate El Nino to a strong La Nina. What I do show is that Carter has said things which do imply a cooling atmosphere. Without referencing the original article, it is impossible to say whether or not Carter claimed that it was cooling from 1998 to 2006. Of course, without referencing that article, hutch44k has no basis to claim that the OP argues a straw man. Fortunately I have now found Carter's original article, and find that he wrote that "[T]here was actually a slight decrease [in temperature recorded by the HadCRUT3 index], though not at a rate that differs significantly from zero". On the purely technical point, Carter's claim about HadCRUT3 appears to have been wrong in 2006. The warming shown on the trend calculator from 1998-2005 is 0.065 ±0.482 °C/decade (2σ). Of course, that used HadCRUT3v, while Carter refers to HadCRUT3 (which differs slightly), but it appears unlikely that his claim was even technically correct. Even if it where, it shows the extreme nature of his cherry pick, relying not just on a particular temperature index but on a particular version of that index. It also shows he is using an interval in which the error range in calculating the trend is 2.4 times the IPCC predicted trend. No scientist cannot know that such extreme cherry picking, and that data with such large error margins cannot be used to make any valid scientific point.
  36. Richard Alley - We Can Afford Clean Energy
    Scandenp To just quote UN as your source without any specifics is no improvement on my statement and merely pontificating. But the specific number is not the issue, and in any event it is a projection that will deviate from actual. And projections will differ depending on source. So the actual number is rather academic. The issue is that everyone knows or should know that the population will be enormously higher than the present day, but the solutions are invariably based on today's population level. Which is wrong.
  37. It hasn't warmed since 1998
    hutch44k, 1) Do you agree that the trend shown by HadCRUT4 from 1970 to current is 0.172 ±0.033 °C/decade (2σ)? 2) Do you agree that that is a statistically significant warming? 3) Do you agree that the HadCRUT$ trend from 1998 to current is 0.083 ±0.172 °C/decade (2σ)? 4) Do you agree that the 1998 to current temperature trend shows no statistically significant difference from the 1970 to current trend? 5) Do you agree that the 1998 to current trend shows no statistically significant difference from the IPCC prediction for the current decade of 0.2 °C/decade? 6) Do you agree it is incorrect to interpret "no statistically significant warming" as meaning "no warming" given your answers to the above questions? 7) Do you agree that choosing 1998 (or any point in the half decade before 1998) as a start point for a temperature trend, by including a very strong El Nino in the early part of the record, and a sequence of moderate to strong La Nina's in the later part of the record, maximizes the noise relative to the signal and hence constitutes a "cherry pick" if you attempt to draw a conclusion of "no warming" from that data? Given the propensity of fake "skeptics" to simply go silent when their meme is refuted, readers can reasonably interpret your failure to answer the above questions as showing that you have been attempting to sow confusion on this thread.
  38. Richard Alley - We Can Afford Clean Energy
    Dave123 - Talking about the embodied energy of slag is a very strange idea given the normal ways of doing such calculations as was the use of Terawatts (TWh perhaps?). Since it is at odds with reasonable published calculations, I want to see the working. I am easy to find on net - I am Phil Scadden working for GNS Science.
  39. Richard Alley - We Can Afford Clean Energy
    Realist - "population is growing at a greater rate than ever with 14 plus billion to be added in the next hundred years." This is at odds with both UN and US Census projections. To take this seriously, please supply your source.
  40. Climate Scientists take on Richard Lindzen
    Whatever the merits of Holgate's work, it limitations with respect to other papers using much larger no. of guages has been demonstrated here. What climate model has been created with proxy data? They obviously can be validated against proxy data for paleoclimate studies but that's not how models are built. You havent answered the question as to what your preferred method for forecasting is, since using all available physics doesnt seem to be your preference. However, I suggest you reply to this on this thread as it is off-topic here.
  41. It hasn't warmed since 1998
    hutch, your first claim (Carter did not claim cooling) has been refuted by Tom @ 180. Do you acknowledge this? Your second point has been amply responded to: within a specific set of dates, no significant warming (which, as you point out, doesn't mean cooling) can be demonstrated when using a chosen data set for a specific part of the atmospheric system (more specifically the part that doesn't store the greater part of the energy) and using a particular type of analysis that doesn't account for particular types of forcings. What you could possibly use this result for, I can't imagine. Well, I can imagine, but I'd rather give your integrity the benefit of the doubt before going there.
  42. Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
    Well, that's very instructive, just drop a single word (fraction) as hutch44uk did to flip the results upside down. Hopefully this was a honest mistake and hutch44uk will soon understand how biased was his reading of, maybe, just the title.
  43. It hasn't warmed since 1998
    muoncounter, "take out the ENSO noise, and you're once again incorrect". The argument wasn't about warming purely from non-ENSO sources. Stop changing my position please! Dikran, no they're not my statistics. Foster and Rahmstorf chose a 2-sigma error band for statistical signficance, not me. CBDunkerson, it seems you agree with me by admitting it's true. I agree with you too.. this whole argument isn't at all meaningful, as it doesn't prove that CO2 is causing the warming anyway (for another thread)! Thanks for the discussions.
  44. Richard Alley - We Can Afford Clean Energy
    Bernard, I've got a conference paper in preparation with a deadline this week. I can only afford so much diversion, and responding to you requires serious respectful work. I'm more optimistic about some things than others. The part I'm less optimistic about is our ability to move towards self-restraint. Without that neither technical solutions nor population control will suffice.
  45. Richard Alley - We Can Afford Clean Energy
    ScaddenP- My sources cut right into my professional life...which for a variety of reasons I need to keep separated from my interest in climate science. I've corresponded with one party here in a professional capacity, and I have no problem with sharing off list. On list would leave clues. I'm not sure who has my direct contact information, but I'd be happy to share if you care to contact me that way.
  46. Alberta’s bitumen sands: “negligible” climate effects, or the “biggest carbon bomb on the planet”?
    Suggested reading: “U.S. 'dirty oil' imports set to triple” by Steve Hargreaves, CNNMoney Apr 30, 2012. This not particularly good news.
  47. It hasn't warmed since 1998
    hutch44uk: Surface temperatures are but a small portion of the global warming picture. Over 90% of global warming goes into the oceans (amply documented on this website). In addition global warming is itself but the result of a radiative energy imbalance whereby the Earth retains more energy than it emits - the Earth climate system is then forced to warm up to increase emissions to match, as per (as far as I know) undisputed principles of thermodynamics. As long as one can demonstrate the following: (1) There remains a measured top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance (conventionally measured as a forcing in Watts per square metre), and (2) The oceans continue to build up heat energy (conventionally measured as ocean heat content, in Joules), then there is simply no basis to conclude that global warming has in any way stalled or stopped, whatever variations show up in short-term surface temperature data. If you have sources showing both (1) and (2) are no longer operative, please feel free to share. Finally, I should address your accusation of Skeptical Science "moving the goalposts". From a logic standpoint, the fact of the matter is that the "global warming stopped in 1998" claim, whether asserted baldly or on the basis of no satistically-significant warming, is a cherry-pick. As such, dismantling the cherry-pick by including additional relevant information does not IMO constitute a shifting of goalposts.
  48. John Nielsen-Gammon Comments on Continued Global Warming
    Sphaerica - on #1 I covered my butt and noted that a significant volcanic eruption would nullify my prediction. Regarding #2, that would require 3 consecutive years of La Nina conditions, which is very rare. The most recent La Nina appears to be ending right now, in fact. If we enter an El Nino phase within the next few months, that will be perfectly timed to influence 2013 surface temps. I'm not too worried about #3 :-)
  49. CBDunkerson at 03:57 AM on 1 May 2012
    It hasn't warmed since 1998
    hutch, one of the things you are apparently not understanding is the difference between 'true' and 'meaningful'. It is true that there has been no statistically significant trend since 1998... it just isn't at all meaningful. There have been 13 years since 1998. If you look at the entire temperature anomaly record you will find very few (possibly zero) cases where a statistically significant trend occurred over a period of just 13 years. You are citing a period too short to achieve statistical significance as if it told us something about the trend. It does not. Essentially, you are pressing your nose up against a tree (i.e. the statistically insignificant past 13 years) so hard that you cannot see the surrounding forest (i.e. the rising temperature trend) and thus are 'free' to continue pretending it does not exist... [snip]
    Moderator Response: [Dikran Marsupial] Inflamatory snipped.
  50. Dikran Marsupial at 03:55 AM on 1 May 2012
    It hasn't warmed since 1998
    hutch44uk I am not questioning what the trend calculator says. I am pointing out that a particular intepretation often used by skeptics is incorrect. A lack of statistically significant warming does not mean it is not warming, just that you cannot rule out that possibility. If you have a two headed coin and flip it four times and get a head each time (oddly enough) then the usual test for the coin being biased gives the result "no significant". Does that mean the coin is fair? No, of course it doesn't, the coin has a head on both sides! The reason you get a result of "not significant" is that there have been too few coin flips observed to rule out the possibility that the coin is fair (at the usual 95% significance level). BTW if you adopt a statistic to make an argument, then they are your statistics, if only by adoption. You need to be able to defend your use of them, whether you calculated them or not.

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